45th Ontario general election

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The 45th Ontario general election is tentatively scheduled to be held on April 11, 2030 unless the Legislative Assembly of Ontario is dissolved earlier by the lieutenant governor of Ontario.

Quick facts 124 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario 63 seats needed for a majority, Leader ...
45th Ontario general election

 2025
On or before April 11, 2030 (2030-04-11)

124 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario
63 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Doug Ford Marit Stiles
Party Progressive Conservative New Democratic
Leader since March 10, 2018 February 4, 2023
Leader's seat Etobicoke North Davenport
Last election 80 seats, 42.97% 27 seats, 18.55%
Current seats 79 26
Seats needed Steady Increase 37

 
Leader John Fraser
(interim)
Mike Schreiner
Party Liberal Green
Leader since January 22, 2026 November 15, 2009
Leader's seat Ottawa South Guelph
Last election 14 seats, 29.95% 2 seats, 4.83%
Current seats 14 2
Seats needed Increase 49 Increase 61

Incumbent Premier

Doug Ford
Progressive Conservative



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Standings

Summary of the standings of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario

More information Party, Party leader ...
Party Party leader Seats
2025 Current
Progressive Conservative Doug Ford 80 79
New Democratic Marit Stiles 27 26
Liberal John Fraser 14 14
Green Mike Schreiner 2 2
  Independent 1 2
Total 124 123
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Timeline

2025

2026

Ridings

The Electoral Boundaries Act, 2015[7] increased the number of electoral districts from 107 to 122, following the boundaries set out by the federal 2013 Representation Order for Ontario, while preserving the special boundaries of the 11 seats in Northern Ontario set out in the 1996 redistribution.

The Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission, appointed in 2016,[8] recommended the creation of the additional districts of Kiiwetinoong and Mushkegowuk—James Bay, carved out from the existing Kenora—Rainy River and Timmins—James Bay ridings, which accordingly raised the total number of seats to 124.[9][10] This was implemented through the Representation Statute Law Amendment Act, 2017.[11]

With the 2022 Canadian federal electoral redistribution, Ontario was allotted 1 additional seat in the House of Commons. On August 1, 2024, Premier Ford announced that Ontario would break with recent tradition and not adopt the federal electoral boundary changes for the 2025 provincial election.[12]

Ontario does not have legislation in place for a scheduled review of electoral districts and boundaries, and any changes to boundaries would require new legislation.[13]

Date of the election

Ontario repealed its fixed election date legislation on November 27, 2025.[14][15]

Under Section 4 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms the Ontario legislature is automatically dissolved 5 years after the return of the writs for the previous general election.[16] Polling day in Ontario elections is the 5th Thursday after the date of the writ.[17]

The date fixed for the return of the writs in the 2025 general election was March 7, 2025,[18] meaning that unless the legislature is dissolved earlier it will be automatically dissolved on March 7, 2030, and the latest an election could be held is April 11, 2030.

Seat changes

More information Party, Gain/(loss) due to ...
44th Parliament of Ontario - Movement in seats held up to the election (2025–present)
Party 2025 Gain/(loss) due to present
Resignation
as MPP
Resignation
from caucus
Expulsion Byelection
gain
Byelection
hold
Progressive Conservative 80(1)79
New Democratic 27(1)26
Liberal 1414
Green 22
Independent 112
Total124(1)123
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More information Seat, Before ...
Changes in seats held since February 27, 2025
Seat Before Change
Date Member Party Reason Date Member Party
Sault Ste. Marie September 22, 2025 Chris Scott[19]  PC Expelled from caucus.  Independent
Scarborough Southwest February 3, 2026 Doly Begum[20]  New Democratic Resigned to run for the Liberal Party in the Scarborough Southwest by-election TBA TBA Vacant
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Opinion polls

Graphical Summary

Opinion Polling for the 45th Ontario General Election

Table of polls

More information Polling firm, Last date of polling ...
Polling firm Last date
of polling
Source PC NDP Liberal Green Other Margin of error Sample size Polling type Lead
Leger May 11, 2026 [p 1] 39 17 34 6 4 ±3.1% 1,003 Online 5
Mainstreet Research May 7, 2026 [p 2] 35 24 31 6 5 ±3.2% 910 IVR 4
Liaison Strategies April 26, 2026 [p 3] 36 20 38 4 2 ±3.1% 1,000 IVR 2
Pallas Data April 22, 2026 [p 4] 37 24 32 6 1 ±3.1% 1,007 IVR 5
Abacus Data April 21, 2026 [p 5] 37 17 36 5 6 ±3.1% 1,000 Online 1
Pallas Data April 8, 2026 [p 6] 40 22 31 6 2 ±3.0% 1,084 IVR 9
Abacus Data April 6, 2026 [p 7] 39 21 31 5 5 ±2.09% 2,185 Online 8
Liaison Strategies March 29, 2026 [p 8] 39 18 36 5 3 ±3.1% 1,000 IVR 3
Ipsos March 11, 2026 [p 9] 42 18 35 3 5 ±4.2% 801 Online 7
Abacus Data March 11, 2026 [p 10] 44 16 32 5 3 ±3.1% 1,000 Online 12
Liaison Strategies February 22, 2026 [p 11] 40 17 36 5 3 ±3.1% 1,000 IVR 4
Abacus Data February 10, 2026 [p 12] 44 16 30 6 4 ±3.1% 1,001 Online 14
Pallas Data January 24, 2026 [p 13] 43 18 30 5 4 ±3.1% 1,015 IVR 13
Liaison Strategies January 21, 2026 [p 14] 42 17 35 3 2 ±3.1% 1,000 IVR 7
Abacus Data January 13, 2026 [p 15] 48 19 22 6 5 ±3.1% 1,006 Online 26
Liaison Strategies December 7, 2025 [p 16] 44 16 35 3 2 ±3.09% 1,000 IVR 9
Angus Reid December 1, 2025 [p 17] 41 23 28 4 4 ±3% 723 Online 13
Pallas Data November 15, 2025 [p 18] 45 18 28 6 3 ±3% 1,077 IVR 17
North Poll November 7, 2025 [p 19] 46 17 29 4 4 N/a 742 Online 17
Abacus Data November 6, 2025 [p 20] 51 19 23 3 4 ±3.1% 1,000 Online 28
Leger October 20, 2025 [p 21] 44 13 32 7 3 ±3.1% 1,052 Online 12
Liaison Strategies October 15, 2025 [p 22] 47 15 33 3 2 ±3.4% 800 IVR 14
Abacus Data October 15, 2025 [p 23] 51 15 25 5 4 ±3.1% 1,000 Online 26
Relay Strategies October 13, 2025 [p 24] 44 17 29 6 5 N/a 1,268 Online 15
Mainstreet Research September 18, 2025 [p 25] 48 14 29 3 5 ±3.2% 958 Online 19
Abacus Data September 17, 2025 [p 26] 52 12 24 6 6 ±3.1% 1,021 Online 28
Angus Reid September 5, 2025 [p 27] 45 22 25 4 6 ±3% 935 Online 20
Pallas Data September 4, 2025 [p 28] 45 17 26 7 5 ±3.1% 1,026 IVR 19
Abacus Data August 19, 2025 [p 29] 53 12 27 5 3 ±3.04% 1,037 Online 26
Liaison Strategies August 14, 2025 [p 30] 44 15 35 3 3 ±3.4% 800 Telephone 9
Abacus Data July 15, 2025 [p 31] 50 13 28 6 3 ±3.1% 1,000 Online 22
Pallas Data June 29, 2025 [p 32] 43 21 29 6 2 ±3% 1,080 IVR 14
Mainstreet Research June 26, 2025 [p 33] 41 17 32 3 7 ±3.2% 923 Smart IVR 9
Abacus Data June 5, 2025 [p 34] 49 14 28 5 4 ±3.1% 1,000 Online 21
Leger May 25, 2025 [p 35] 45 15 32 5 3 ±3.1% 1,025 Online 13
Liaison Strategies May 9, 2025 [p 36] 46 13 36 2 3 ±3.09% 1,000 IVR 10
Campaign Research[a] March 26, 2025 [p 37] 46 18 24 8 4 ±2.2% 1,672 Online 22
2025 election February 27, 2025 N/a 42.97 18.55 29.95 4.83 3.70 N/a N/a N/a 13.02
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Notes

  1. Campaign Research is an internal PC Party polling firm led by Nick Kouvalis.[21]

References

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