Opinion polling for the 2019 Indian general election
Indian lower house election opinion poll
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In the run up to the Indian general election, 2019, various organisations carried out opinion polls to gauge voting intention in India. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the Jan 2018 to April 2019. Many organisations have gone on to conduct exit polls and post-poll surveys as well, which too are displayed.
Background
Opinion polls in India can be controversial. These charges include partisan manipulation.[1]
Opinion poll methodology has heavily improved and agencies like CSDS have got it absolutely correct on 16 occasions, roughly correct on 7 occasions and wrong on 4 occasions.[2]
Post-poll surveys or Exit polls, widely published, are fundamentally different from opinion polls.[3]
Opinion polls
Various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions in India. The results of such polls are displayed in this list. The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous general election, held in April and May 2014, to the present day. The ECI banned the release of exit polls from 11 April to 19 May, the last phase of the elections.[4] The commission also banned the publication or broadcast in the media of predictions made by astrologers and tarot card readers.[5]
| Poll type | Date published | Polling agency | Others | Majority | Ref | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDA | UPA | ||||||
| Opinion polls | 8 April 2019 | Times Now-VMR | 279 | 149 | 115 | 7 | [6] |
| 6 April 2019 | India TV-CNX | 275 | 126 | 142 | 3 | [7] | |
| Mar 2019 | Times Now-VMR | 283 | 135 | 125 | 11 | [8] | |
| Mar 2019 | News Nation | 270 | 134 | 139 | Hung | [9] | |
| Mar 2019 | CVoter | 264 | 141 | 138 | Hung | [citation needed] | |
| Mar 2019 | India TV-CNX | 285 | 126 | 132 | 13 | [10] | |
| Mar 2019 | Zee 24 Taas | 264 | 165 | 114 | Hung | [citation needed] | |
| Feb 2019 | VDP Associates | 242 | 148 | 153 | Hung | [11] | |
| Jan 2019 | Times Now-VMR | 252 | 147 | 144 | Hung | [12] | |
| Jan 2019 | ABP News-CVoter | 233 | 167 | 143 | Hung | [13] | |
| Jan 2019 | India Today-Karvy | 237 | 166 | 140 | Hung | [14] | |
| Jan 2019 | VDP Associates | 225 | 167 | 150 | Hung | [15] | |
| Dec 2018 | India Today | 257 | 146 | 140 | Hung | [16] | |
| Dec 2018 | ABP News-CVoter | 247 | 171 | 125 | Hung | [17] | |
| Dec 2018 | India TV-CNX | 281 | 124 | 138 | 9 | [18] | |
| Nov 2018 | ABP News-CVoter | 261 | 119 | 163 | Hung | [19] | |
| Oct 2018 | ABP News | 276 | 112 | 155 | 4 | [20] | |
| Aug 2018 | India Today-Karvy | 281 | 122 | 140 | 9 | [21] | |
| May 2018 | ABP News-CSDS | 274 | 164 | 105 | 2 | [22] | |
| Jan 2018 | CVoter | 335 | 89 | 119 | 63 | [citation needed] | |
| Jan 2018 | India Today | 309 | 102 | 132 | 37 | [23] |
Vote share
| Date published | Polling agency | Others | Lead | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDA | UPA | ||||
| Mar 2019 | News Nation[9] | 34% | 28% | 38% | 6% |
| Mar 2019 | ABP News – C voter[24][25] | 41% | 31% | 28% | 10% |
| Jan 2019 | Times Now-VMR[26] | 38.7% | 32.6% | 28.7% | 6.1% |
| Jan 2019 | CVoter[citation needed] | 37.6% | 32.2% | 30.2% | 5.4% |
| Jan 2019 | India Today -Karvy[14] | 35% | 33% | 32% | 2% |
| April–May 2014 | 2014 General election results | 36.0% | 23.0% | 42.0% | 13.0% |
Polling on politicians
Next Prime Minister
Narendra Modi vs Rahul Gandhi
| Date published | Polling agency | Lead | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Narendra Modi | Rahul Gandhi | |||
| Jan 2019 | India Today[27] | 60% | 24% | 36% |
| Jan 2019 | India TV - CNX[28] | 41% | 23% | 18% |
| Nov 2018 | ABP News- C Voter[19] | 56% | 36% | 20% |
| Oct 2018 | ABP News- CSDS[29] | 60% | 34% | 26% |
| Jan 2018 | 66% | 28% | 38% | |
| 2017 | 69% | 26% | 43% |
Narendra Modi vs Priyanka Gandhi
| Date published | Polling agency | Lead | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | No | |||
| Feb 2019 | ABP news - Cvoter[30] | 60% | 32% | 28% |
Best Alternative to Narendra Modi amongst the Opposition leaders in 2019 Election
| Date published | Polling agency | can't say | Lead | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rahul Gandhi | Mamata Banerjee | K. Chandrashekar Rao | P. Chidambaram | Akhilesh Yadav | Arvind Kejriwal | Naveen Patnaik | Sharad Pawar | Mayawati | Nitish Kumar | Sonia Gandhi | Mulayam Singh Yadav | ||||
| Jan 2019 | India Today- Karvy[31] | 32% | 3% | – | 3% | 3% | – | – | – | 7% | – | – | – | 12% | 34% |
| Jul 2018 | India Today- Karvy[32] | 46% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 2% | – | – | – | 12% | 34% |
| Jan 2018 | 45% | 9% | 9% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 3% | – | – | – | 12% | 33% | |
| Jul 2017 | 21% | 4% | 6% | 4% | – | 7% | 3% | – | 2% | 13% | 12% | 3% | 22% | 1% | |
| Jan 2017 | 28% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 7% | 2% | 3% | 13% | 9% | 3% | 24% | 4% | |||
| Aug 2016 | 23% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 12% | 3% | 3% | 13% | 9% | 3% | 21% | 2% | |||
| Feb 2016 | 32% | 2% | 5% | – | 10% | 1% | 3% | 8% | 15% | 2% | 15% | 17% | |||
Approval ratings
Economic performance; compared to previous government
Issues
Key Issues
| Date published | Polling agency | Unemployment | Price rise | Corruption | Farmers' plight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2019 | India today - Karvy[34] | 37% | 19% | 15% | 12% |
Farm distress; Low crop causing farm distress
| Date published | Polling agency | Don't know | Lead | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | No | ||||
| Jan 2019 | India today - Karvy[34] | 65% | 25% | 10% | 40% |
Jobs; Enough created
| Date published | Polling agency | Don't know | Lead | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | No | ||||
| Jan 2019 | India today - Karvy[34] | 12% | 76% | 12% | 64% |
Alleged corruption in Rafale deal
| Date published | Polling agency | Yes | No | Not aware of deal | Can't say |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2019 | India today - Karvy[35] | 30% | 32% | 23% | 15% |
Statewise opinion polling
Andhra Pradesh (25)
Arunachal Pradesh (2)
Assam (14)
Bihar (40)
Chhattisgarh (11)
Goa (2)
Gujarat (26)
Haryana (10)
Himachal Pradesh (4)
Jammu and Kashmir (6)
Jharkhand (14)
Karnataka (28)
Kerala (20)
| Date published | Polling agency | Lead | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UDF | LDF | NDA | |||
| 15–19 April 2019 | Twenty Four News[46] | 10-12 | 8-10 | 0-2 | 0-4 |
| 14 April 2019 | Asianet News - AZ Research[47] | 13 | 6 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 April 2019 | Mathrubhoomi News - Nielson[48] | 14 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 April 2019 | India TV - CNX[36] | 14 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
| March 2019 | News Nation[9] | 15 | 4 | 1 | 11 |
| March 2019 | Times Now-VMR[37] | 16 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| Oct 2018 | ABP News- CSDS[49] | 12 | 6 | 2 | 6 |
Madhya Pradesh (29)
Maharashtra (48)
| Date published | Polling agency | Lead | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDA | SHS | UPA | NCP | |||
| 6 April 2019 | India TV - CNX[50] | 34 | 13 | 21 | ||
| Jan 2019 | ABP News - Cvoter[13] | 28 | 20 | 8 | ||
| Jan 2019 | VDP Associates[51] | 23 | 2 | 23 | – | |
| Jan 2019 | India TV - CNX[52] | 22 | 8 | 18 | 4 | |
| Nov 2018 | ABP News- C Voter[19] | 23 | 5 | 14 | 6 | 9 |
| Oct 2018 | ABP News- CSDS[29] | 16 | 2 | 30 | 14 | |
| 36 | 12 | 24 | ||||
| 22 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 11 | ||
Manipur (2)
Meghalaya (2)
Mizoram (1)
Nagaland (1)
Odisha (21)
Punjab (13)
Rajasthan (25)
Sikkim (1)
Tamil Nadu (39)
| Date published | Polling agency | Lead | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPA | NDA | AIADMK | |||
| 8 April 2019 | Times Now-VMR[56] | 33 | 6 | 27 | |
| 8 April 2019 | PuthiyaThalaimurai TV[57] | 31-33 | 6-8 | 27 | |
| 6 April 2019 | IndiaTV-CNX[36] | 21 | 13 | 8 | |
| 5 April 2019 | People studies-Loyola College[58] | 33 | 3-5 | 28 | |
| Mar 2019 | News Nation[9] | 24 | 15 | 9 | |
| Mar 2019 | Times[59] | 18 | 15 | 6 | 3 |
| Mar 2019 | India TV-CNX[53] | 22 | 15 | 2 | 7 |
- AIADMK is part of NDA alliance in Tamil Nadu.
Telangana (17)
Tripura (2)
Uttar Pradesh (80)
| Date published | Polling agency | Lead | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDA | UPA | MGB | |||
| 8 April 2019 | News Nation[61] | 37 | 2 | 41 | 4 |
| 6 April 2019 | India TV - CNX[36] | 41 | 4 | 35 | 6 |
| 3 April 2019 | ABP News - Nielsen[62] | 36 | 2 | 42 | 6 |
| 1 April 2019 | India TV - CNX[63] | 46 | 4 | 30 | 16 |
| 19 March 2019 | Times Now - VMR[37] | 42 | 2 | 36 | 6 |
| 12 March 2019 | News Nation[9] | 35 | 2 | 43 | 8 |
| 8 March 2019 | India TV - CNX[64] | 41 | 4 | 35 | 6 |
| 31 January 2019 | Times Now - VMR[60] | 27 | 2 | 51 | 24 |
| 24 January 2019 | ABP News - Cvoter[13] | 25 | 4 | 51 | 26 |
| 23 January 2019 | India Today[65] | 18 | 4 | 58 | 40 |
| 2 November 2018 | ABP News - CVoter[19] | 31 | 5 | 44 | 13 |
| 5 October 2018 | ABP News- CSDS[29] | 36 | 2 | 42 | 6 |
Uttarakhand (5)
West Bengal (42)
Union territories
Andaman and Nicobar Islands (1)
Chandigarh (1)
Dadra and Nagar Haveli (1)
Daman and Diu (1)
Lakshadweep (1)
Puducherry (1)
NCT of Delhi (7)
Exit polls
| Poll type | Date published | Polling agency | Others | Majority | Ref | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDA | UPA | ||||||
| Exit polls | India Today-Axis | 352 ± 13 | 93 ± 15 | 82 ± 13 | 70 ± 13 | [69] | |
| News24-Today's Chanakya | 350 ± 14 | 95 ± 9 | 97 ± 11 | 68 ± 14 | [70] | ||
| News18-IPSOS CNN-IBN-IPSOS |
336 | 82 | 124 | 64 | [71][72] | ||
| VDP Associates | 333 | 115 | 94 | 61 | [73] | ||
| Sudarshan News | 313 | 121 | 109 | 41 | [74] | ||
| Times Now-VMR | 306 ± 3 | 132 ± 3 | 104 ± 3 | 34 ± 3 | [75] | ||
| Suvarna News | 305 | 124 | 102 | 33 | [74] | ||
| India TV-CNX | 300 ± 10 | 120 ± 5 | 122 ± 6 | 28 ± 10 | [76] | ||
| India News-Polstrat | 287 | 128 | 127 | 15 | [77] | ||
| CVoter | 287 | 128 | 127 | 15 | [72] | ||
| News Nation | 286 | 122 | 134 | 14 | [78] | ||
| ABP-CSDS | 277 | 130 | 135 | 5 | [69] | ||
| NewsX-Neta | 242 | 164 | 137 | Hung | [72] | ||