Opinion polling for the 2024 Salvadoran general election
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The following tables list the results of opinion polls for the presidential, legislative, and municipal elections conducted since October 2022 in reverse chronological order for the 2024 Salvadoran presidential and legislative elections. The party with the highest percentage is listed in bold and shaded in its party color, and the party with the second highest percentage is in bold and shaded in gray. The lead column shows the percentage between the parties with the first and second highest percentages. For legislative and municipal election polls, projected seat counts, if available, are listed below the percentage.
Graphical summary
After 20 July 2023
| Presidential election polls | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
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Other | None | Unsure | Lead | Ref. |
| Bukele (NI) |
Sánchez (ARENA) |
Flores (FMLN) |
Parada (NT) |
Renderos (FS) |
Murillo (FPS) |
Cardoza (PAIS) | ||||||||
| 2024 election | 4 Feb 2024 | N/A | 84.65 | 5.57 | 6.40 | 2.04 | 0.74 | 0.60 | – | – | – | – | 78.25 | [1] |
| Cid-Gallup (exit poll) | 4 Feb 2024 | – | 87.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | – | – | – | – | 80.0 | [2] |
| End of the presidential campaigning period on 31 January 2024 | ||||||||||||||
| Cid-Gallup | Jan 2024 | 2,400 | 79.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | – | – | – | – | 1.0 | – | 12.0 | 74.0 | [3] |
| Iudop-UCA | 3–14 Jan 2024 | 2,892 | 81.9 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | – | – | 3.0 | 3.0 | 77.7 | [4] |
| Iudop-UCA | 3–14 Jan 2024 | 1,264 | 68.7 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | – | – | 7.8 | 19.3 | 66.4 | [4] |
| CEC-UFG | 3–8 Jan 2024 | 1,904 | 70.9 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.6 | – | – | 6.1 | 15.0 | 68.0 | [5] |
| Fundaungo | 11 Nov–14 Dec 2023 | 1,201 | 56.0 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 0.9 | – | – | – | 1.7 | 0.6 | 22.3 | 52.7 | [6] |
| Iudop-UCA | 11–29 Nov 2023 | 1,512 | 61.7 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 0.3 | – | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 9.4 | 14.0 | 59.1 | [7] |
| Cid-Gallup | 6–13 Nov 2023 | 1,200 | 79.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | – | – | – | – | 2.0 | – | 14.0 | 76.0 | [8] |
| Beginning of the presidential campaigning period on 3 October 2023 | ||||||||||||||
| OPINES | 18 Sept 2023 | 1,320 | 92.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – | – | – | 2.0 | 2.7 | 90.0 | [9] |
| CEC-UFG | 15–21 Aug 2023 | 1,920 | 68.4 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 9.2 | 11.8 | 64.1 | [10] |
Before 20 July 2023
| Presidential election polls | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
NI | ARENA | FMLN | GANA | PCN | PDC | NT | V | Other | None | Unsure | Lead | Ref. |
| Primary elections finalized by 20 July 2023 | |||||||||||||||
| Fundaungo | 2 May–9 Jun 2023 | 2,314 | 53.7 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | – | 38.8 | 51.2 | [11] |
| CEC-UFG | 27 May–1 Jun 2023 | 1,334 | 70.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 23.4 | 67.0 | [12] |
| LPG Datos | 15–24 Feb 2023 | 1,520 | 54.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | – | – | – | 0.8 | – | – | 42.5 | 52.5 | [13] |
| LPG Datos | 16–21 Nov 2022 | 1,520 | 49.3 | 2.6 | – | 1.4 | – | – | – | 1.1 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 27.2 | 46.7 | [14] |
| CEC-UFG | 27–31 Oct 2022 | 1,227 | 66.2 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | 0.2 | 0.5 | – | 9.8 | 18.2 | 48.0 | [15] |
| 2019 election | 7 Feb 2019 | N/A | – | 31.72 | 14.41 | 53.10 | – | – | – | 0.77 | – | – | – | 21.38 | [16] |
Legislative election
| Legislative election polls | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
NI | ARENA | FMLN | GANA | PCN | PDC | NT | V | CD | DS | FPS | PAIS | FS | Other | None | Unsure | Lead | Ref. |
| 2024 election | 4 Feb 2024 | N/A | 70.56 54 |
7.29 2 |
6.28 0 |
3.19 0 |
3.26 2 |
3.15 1 |
1.32 0 |
2.94 1 |
0.39 0 |
– | – | – | 1.64 0 |
– | – | – | 43.27 | [17] |
| Cid-Gallup | Jan 2024 | 2,400 | 60.0 56 |
5.0 2 |
2.0 1 |
4.0 1 |
– 0 |
– 1 |
– 0 |
– 0 |
– 0 |
– 0 |
– 0 |
– 0 |
– 0 |
2.0 0 |
– | 27.0 | 55.0 | [3] |
| Iudop-UCA | 3–14 Jan 2024 | 534 | 67.6 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 2.6 | – | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 19.9 | 62.9 | [18] |
| Iudop-UCA | 3–14 Jan 2024 | 428 | 58.6 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | – | – | – | 0.5 | – | – | 26.2 | 53.0 | [18] |
| CEC-UFG | 3–8 Jan 2024 | 1,904 | – 57 |
– 2 |
– 0 |
– 0 |
– 0 |
– 1 |
– 0 |
– 0 |
– 0 |
– 0 |
– 0 |
– 0 |
– 0 |
– | – | – | – | [5] |
| Beginning of the legislative campaigning period on 3 December 2023 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Iudop-UCA | 11–29 Nov 2023 | 866 | 81.2 | 3.6 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | – | – | 0.1 | 75.7 | [7] |
| CEC-UFG | 15–21 Aug 2023 | 1,920 | 59.0 58 |
5.8 1 |
2.9 1 |
2.5 0 |
2.1 0 |
1.2 0 |
0.5 0 |
0.9 0 |
0.4 0 |
0.0 0 |
0.1 0 |
0.4 0 |
1.1 0 |
– | 12.0 | 11.1 | 53.2 | [19] |
| Primary elections finalized by 20 July 2023 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Fundaungo | 2 May–9 Jun 2023 | 2,314 | 45.0 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.7 | – | – | – | – | – | 1.6 | 9.1 | 25.9 | 42.1 | [11] |
| CEC-UFG | 27 May–1 Jun 2023 | 1,334 | 63.0 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 2.8 | – | – | – | 1.4 | – | – | – | – | – | 1.6 | 4.7 | 20.2 | 58.0 | [20] |
| LPG Datos | 15–24 Feb 2023 | 1,500 | 49.7 | 2.5 | 1.4 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2.7 | – | 43.7 | 47.2 | [21] |
| LPG Datos | 16–21 Nov 2022 | 1,520 | 44.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 2.6 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1.7 | 9.7 | 33.9 | 41.2 | [22] |
| CEC-UFG | 27–31 Oct 2022 | 1,227 | 62.8 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.8 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 10.2 | 18.6 | 59.9 | [15] |
| 2021 election | 28 Feb 2021 | N/A | 66.46 56 |
12.18 14 |
6.91 4 |
5.29 5 |
4.08 2 |
1.70 1 |
1.70 1 |
1.01 1 |
0.56 0 |
– | – | – | – | – | – | – | 54.28 | [23] |
Municipal election
| Municipal election polls | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
NI | ARENA | FMLN | GANA | PCN | PDC | NT | V | CD | DS | FPS | PAIS | FS | Other | None | Unsure | Lead | Ref. |
| 2024 election | 3 Mar 2024 | N/A | 39.12 28 |
9.78 1 |
7.78 0 |
13.41 6 |
9.20 4 |
11.16 4 |
0.94 0 |
0.56 0 |
3.24 0 |
– | 0.46 0 |
– | 4.36 1 |
– | – | – | 25.71 | [24] |
| Beginning of the municipal campaigning period on 5 February 2024 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| CEC-UFG | 3–8 Jan 2024 | 1,904 | 54.7 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 3.3 | – | 3.0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 12.1 | 18.3 | – | 48.9 | [5] |
| Iudop-UCA | 11–29 Nov 2023 | 1,512 | 40.3 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | – | 11.5 | 31.2 | 35.5 | [7] |
| Fundaungo | 1–5 Sept 2023 | 502 | 35.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 1.4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – | 2.4 | 17.1 | 37.7 | 33.7 | [25] |
| Primary elections finalized by 20 July 2023 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Fundaungo | 2 May–9 Jun 2023 | 2,314 | 40.4 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.4 | – | – | – | – | – | 0.3 | – | 45.5 | 35.5 | [11] |
| CEC-UFG | 27 May–1 Jun 2023 | 1,334 | 56.7 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.4 | – | – | 0.1 | 0.3 | 6.5 | 23.5 | 51.8 | [20] |
| LPG Datos | 15–24 Feb 2023 | 1,500 | 41.9 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 1.9 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2.0 | – | 47.6 | 37.6 | [21] |
| LPG Datos | 16–21 Nov 2022 | 1,520 | 35.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 3.6 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2.7 | 8.2 | 41.0 | 30.7 | [22] |
| CEC-UFG | 27–31 Oct 2022 | 1,227 | 50.0 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.8 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 10.5 | 29.1 | 46.6 | [15] |
| 2021 election | 28 Feb 2021 | N/A | 50.78 152 |
19.01 35 |
11.16 30 |
10.86 27 |
4.93 14 |
1.73 3 |
0.45 0 |
0.39 1 |
0.69 0 |
– | – | – | – | – | – | – | 31.77 | [26] |
Polling on Bukele's re-election
According to polling conducted CIESCA and TResearch shortly after Bukele's announcement of re-election campaign, a large majority of Salvadorans support Bukele's re-election bid.[27][28] Additionally, many Salvadoran Americans strongly support Bukele's re-election.[29]
The following table lists the results of opinion polls regarding Bukele's re-election, with the option with the highest percentage listed in bold and displayed with its background shaded, and the lead column shows the difference between the "would support" and the "would not support" options. The following graph visualizes local regression of the table's results.
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
Would support | Would not support | Undecided | Lead | Ref. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iudop-UCA | 11–29 Nov 2023 | 1,512 | 69.9 | 24.3 | 5.8 | 45.6 | [30] |
| TResearch | Jun 2023 | 1,000 | 90.9 | 8.8 | 0.3 | 82.1 | [31] |
| CEC-UFG | 27 May–1 Jun 2023 | 1,334 | 75.6 | 12.5 | 11.9 | 63.1 | [32] |
| CIESCA | May 2023 | – | 91.85 | 5.36 | 2.79 | 86.49 | [33] |
| TResearch | May 2023 | 1,000 | 90.4 | 9.3 | 0.3 | 81.1 | [31] |
| TResearch | Apr 2023 | 1,000 | 91.2 | 7.5 | 1.3 | 83.7 | [31] |
| TResearch | Mar 2023 | 1,000 | 92.6 | 6.2 | 1.2 | 86.4 | [31] |
| LPG Datos | 15–24 Feb 2023 | 1,500 | 68.0 | 13.0 | 19.0 | 55.0 | [34] |
| TResearch | 14–16 Feb 2023 | 1,000 | 93.9 | 5.7 | 0.4 | 88.2 | [31] |
| CEC-UFG | 4–8 Feb 2023 | 1,263 | 62.2 | 19.0 | 18.8 | 43.2 | [35] |
| TResearch | Jan 2023 | 1,000 | 92.7 | 5.9 | 1.4 | 86.8 | [31] |
| TResearch | Dec 2022 | 1,000 | 93.7 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 88.9 | [31] |
| LPG Datos | 16–21 Nov 2022 | 1,520 | 64.6 | 17.9 | 17.5 | 46.7 | [36] |
| TResearch | Nov 2022 | 1,000 | 94.1 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 89.6 | [31] |
| CEC-UFG | 27–31 Oct 2022 | 1,227 | 74.7 | 12.8 | 12.5 | 61.9 | [37] |
| CEC-UFG | 27–31 Oct 2022 | 1,227 | 77.2 | 11.0 | 11.8 | 66.2 | [37] |
| TResearch | Oct 2022 | 1,000 | 94.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 90.9 | [31] |
| TResearch | 17–19 Sep 2022 | 1,000 | 94.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 89.9 | [28] |
| CIESCA | 18 Sep 2022 | 25,623 | 88.3 | 11.7 | – | 76.6 | [27] |
| CEC-UFG | 10–14 Sep 2022 | 1,231 | 58.9 | 23.1 | 15.0 | 35.8 | [38] |
| CEC-UFG | 26 May 2022 | – | 72.2 | – | – | – | [39] |
