Opinion polling for the September 2019 Israeli legislative election

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Polling for the 17 September 2019 Israeli legislative election[1] began on 26 May 2019.[2]

Graphs

These graphs show the polling trends from the time Knesset dissolved until the election day. No polls may be published from the end of Friday before the election until the polling stations closing on election day at 22:00.[3]

If more than one poll was conducted on the same day, the graphs show the average of the polls for that date.

Polls

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest figure in each survey is displayed in bold and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then both figures are shaded. Parties that fall below the threshold are denoted by the percentage of votes that they received (N%), instead of the seats they would have gotten. When a poll has no information on a certain party, that party is instead marked by a dash (–).

Color key:

  Exit poll

Date Polling firm Publisher Likud Blue &
White
Joint
List
Shas UTJ Yamina Labor-
Gesher
Yisrael
Beiteinu
Dem.
Union
Zehut Otzma
Yehudit
Gov.[a]
Pre-election seats[4] 38 35 10 8 8 6 6 5 4 60
Election results[5][6] 32 33 13 9 7 7 6 8 5 N/A (1.9%) 55
17 Sep KANTAR Kan 11[7] 31 32 13 9 8 7 6 9 5 N/a 55
17 Sep Midgam Channel 12[8] 32 32 13 9 8 7 6 9 5 N/a 55
17 Sep Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13[9] 30 32 15 9 8 6 6 8 6 N/a 53
13 Sep Election silence starting end of Friday before election day.[3]
13 Sep Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13[10] 32 32 12 6 7 9 4 9 5 N/a 4 54
12–13 Sep Midgam Channel 12[11] 32 32 10 7 8 8 5 8 6 N/a 4 55
10–13 Sep Shvakim Panorama HOT[12] 33 32 11 7 8 7 4 9 5 N/a 4 55
12 Sep Smith Maariv[13] 33 32 12 8 7 9 5 8 6 N/a (3.1%) 57
12 Sep Panels Politics Knesset Channel[14] 36 32 10 7 8 9 4 9 5 N/a 60
11–12 Sep Smith 103fm[15] 33 32 12 8 7 9 4 9 6 N/a (2.9%) 57
11–12 Sep KANTAR Kan 11[16] 31 33 11 7 8 9 5 7 5 N/a 4 55
10–11 Sep Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom[17] 33 31 12 7 7 7 6 9 4 N/a 4 54
10 Sep Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13[18] 31 32 11 6 7 9 5 9 6 N/a 4 53
9–10 Sep Midgam Channel 12[19] 31 32 9 7 7 9 6 9 6 N/a 4 54
9 Sep KANTAR Kan 11[20] 31 32 10 7 7 9 5 9 6 N/a 4 54
8–9 Sep Midgam Walla![21] 32 33 9 6 7 9 6 8 6 N/a 4 54
5 Sep Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13[22] 32 32 10 6 8 10 5 11 6 N/a (2.76%) 56
4–5 Sep Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom[23] 31 30 11 8 7 8 6 11 4 N/a 4 54
4–5 Sep Smith 103fm & Maariv[24] 32 32 9 8 7 9 6 10 7 N/a (2.5%) 56
4–5 Sep Midgam Channel 12[25] 32 32 10 7 8 9 6 9 7 N/a (2.5%) 56
4 Sep Panels Politics Knesset Channel[26] 31 31 10 7 8 10 5 9 5 N/a 4 56
1–2 Sep Midgam Walla![27] 32 31 10 7 8 9 7 9 7 N/a (2.7%) 56
1 Sep Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13[28] 31 32 10 6 7 10 6 11 7 N/a (2.8%) 54
1 Sep KANTAR Kan 11[29] 32 31 11 7 7 10 6 9 7 N/a (2.9%) 56
29 Aug Zehut announces withdrawal[30]
27–29 Aug Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom[4] 30 32 11 8 7 10 5 11 6 55
28 Aug Smith 103fm/Maariv[31] 32 31 10 8 7 10 5 10 7 (1.6%) (2.5%) 57
28 Aug Midgam Channel 12[32] 31 30 10 7 8 10 7 10 7 (1.2%) (1.8%) 56
22–25 Aug KANTAR Kan 11[33] 32 31 11 7 7 10 7 9 6 (1.7%) (2.3%) 56
22 Aug Midgam Channel 12[34] 30 30 11 7 8 11 6 10 7 (2.3%) (1.9%) 56
22 Aug Smith 103fm[35] 32 30 11 8 7 10 5 10 7 (1.4%) (2.2%) 57
20–22 Aug Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom[36] 32 31 12 8 7 10 4 10 6 (2%) (2%) 57
21 Aug Midgam Walla![37] 31 30 11 7 8 11 6 9 7 (2.8%) (2.0%) 57
18 Aug Direct Polls Makor Rishon[38] 31 29 10 8 8 11 7 9 7 (1.6%) (2.3%) 58
15 Aug Smith 103fm[39] 32 30 11 8 7 9 6 10 7 (2.3%) (1.7%) 56
15 Aug Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13[40] 31 31 9 6 7 12 5 11 8 (1.4%) (2.1%) 56
13 Aug Midgam Channel 12[41] 30 29 11 7 8 11 7 10 7 (2.9%) (2.7%) 56
8 Aug Smith 103fm[42] 32 30 11 8 7 10 5 9 8 (1.8%) (1.5%) 57
5 Aug Direct Polls Channel 13[43] 30 29 11 7 7 11 7 10 8 (2.2%) (1.9%) 55
5 Aug Midgam Walla![44] 31 29 11 7 8 11 6 10 7 (1.9%) (2.2%) 57
4 Aug KANTAR Reshet Bet[45] 29 30 11 7 7 11 6 11 8 (1.9%) (2.8%) 54
2 Aug Midgam Channel 12[46] 30 29 11 7 8 12 6 10 7 (2.2%) (1.9%) 57
2 Aug Smith 103fm[47] 31 29 11 8 7 11 5 10 8 (1.2%) (1.8%) 57
1 Aug Deadline for submitting the candidate lists[48]
1 Aug Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13[49] 30 29 11 6 7 11 6 11 9 54
1 Aug Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom[50] 30 28 12 7 7 11 6 10 9 (2%) (2%) 55
31 Jul Kulanu officially dissolves and its remaining members join Likud[51]
30 Jul Midgam Channel 12[52] 30 30 11 7 8 12 5 10 7 (1.4%) (1.2%) 57
29 Jul The URWP and the New Right agree to run together as Yamina[53][54]
Date Polling firm Publisher Likud
Kulanu
Blue &
White
Joint
List
Shas UTJ Labor-
Gesher
Yisrael
Beiteinu
URWP Dem.
Union
New
Right
Zehut Gov.[a]
Seats at dissolution 39 35 10 8 8 6 5 5 4 60
26 Jul Smith 103fm/Maariv[55] 30 28 11 8 7 6 9 5 9 7 57
25 Jul Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13[56] 28 23 11 5 6 7 10 4 12 10 4 57
25 Jul Midgam Channel 12[57] 29 27 11 7 8 5 10 4 10 9 (1.9%) 57
25 Jul Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom[58] 31 30 12 7 7 5 7 6 9 6 57
25 Jul KANTAR Kan 11[59] 30 30 10 7 8 5 9 4 8 9 (2.4%) 58
25 Jul Meretz, IDP and the Green Movement agree to run together as the Democratic Union[60][61]
Date Polling firm Publisher Likud
Kulanu
Blue &
White
Joint
List
Shas UTJ Labor-
Gesher
Yisrael
Beiteinu
URWP Meretz New
Right
Zehut IDP Gov.[a]
Seats at dissolution 39 35 10 8 8 6 5 5 4 N/A 60
25 Jul Midgam & iPanel Walla![62] 29 29 12 7 8 8 10 4 5 8 (1.9%) (2.3%) 56
21 Jul Ayelet Shaked becomes the leader of the New Right[63]
21 Jul KANTAR Kan 11[64] 30 30 10 7 8 8 10 4 5 8 (1.2%) (2.8%) 57
21 Jul Midgam & iPanel Channel 12[65] 30 29 11 7 8 7 9 5 4 6 (1.8%) 4 56
19 Jul Smith 103fm/Maariv[66] 32 29 10 8 7 6 9 4 5 6 4 57
19 Jul Direct Polls Makor Rishon[67] 32 29 11 7 8 6 8 4 5 5 (1%) 5 56
18 Jul Labor and Gesher agree to run on a joint list[68]
Date Polling firm Publisher Likud
Kulanu
Blue &
White
Joint
List
Shas UTJ Labor Yisrael
Beiteinu
URWP Meretz New
Right
Zehut Gesher IDP Gov.[a]
Seats at dissolution 39 35 10 8 8 6 5 5 4 N/A 60
17 Jul Dialog Arutz Sheva[69] 31 28 11 8 7 8 8 4 7 4 (1%) 4 54
16 Jul Midgam Channel 12[70] 31 30 11 7 8 6 10 4 4 5 (1.7%) 4 55
12 Jul Smith 103fm/Maariv[71] 33 30 10 8 7 5 8 4 5 6 4 58
11 Jul Midgam Walla![72] 30 30 11 7 8 6 9 5 5 5 (2.7%) 4 55
9 Jul The Jewish Home and Tkuma agree to run together again as the URWP[73]
4 Jul Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom[74] 31 30 9 6 7 8 7 8 6 4 (1%) 4 56
3 Jul Midgam Channel 12[75] 32 31 12 7 7 8 9 5 4 5 (2.1%) (3%) 56
3 Jul Statnet Channel 13[75] 31 29 9 7 6 7 8 4 4 5 4 6 57
2 Jul Labor elects Amir Peretz as its leader[76]
27 Jun Meretz elects Nitzan Horowitz as its leader[77]
26 Jun Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13[78] 32 32 12 6 6 5 7 4 6 4 6 52
26 Jun Former PM Ehud Barak announces the founding of the Israel Democratic Party[79][80]
25 Jun Otzma Yehudit leaves the Union of the Right-Wing Parties[81]
20 Jun HadashTa'al and Ra'amBalad agree to re-establish the Joint List[82]
Date Polling firm Publisher Likud
Kulanu
Blue &
White
Shas UTJ Labor Hadash
Ta'al
Yisrael
Beiteinu
URWP Meretz Ra'am
Balad
New
Right
Zehut Gesher Gov.[a]
Seats at dissolution 39 35 8 8 6 6 5 5 4 4 60
20 Jun Maagar Mohot 103fm[83] 34 33 8 8 4 6 8 6 5 4 4 60
14 Jun Maagar Mohot 103fm[84] 35 33 7 8 4 6 8 5 5 4 5 60
7 Jun Panels Politics Maariv[85] 37 33 7 8 4 7 7 6 4 (2.4%) 6 (2.2%) 64
2 Jun Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom[86] 36 34 7 7 4 6 8 4 4 5 5 (2%) 59
30 May Panels Politics Maariv[87] 37 33 7 8 (1.9%) 5 9 6 6 4 5 (1.4%) 63
30 May Panel Project HaMidgam & Statnet Channel 13[88] 36 33 7 7 4 7 9 7 6 4 57
30 May KANTAR Kan 11[89] 35 34 7 8 5 6 8 4 5 4 4 (3.1%) (2.2%) 58
30 May The 21st Knesset is dissolved[1]
28 May Kulanu and Likud agree to run on a joint list[90]
Date Polling firm Publisher Likud Blue &
White
Shas UTJ Labor Hadash
Ta'al
Yisrael
Beiteinu
URWP Kulanu Meretz Ra'am
Balad
New
Right
Zehut Gesher Gov.[a]
28 May Direct Polls Makor Rishon[91] 34 33 7 8 7 7 9 5 (1.67%) 5 (2.3%) 5 (1.44%) (0.96%) 59
26 May Panels Politics Maariv[2] 35 34 8 8 6 7 6 6 5 5 62
9 Apr Election results[92] 35 35 8 8 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 (3.22%) (2.74%) (1.73%) 60

Scenarios

Zehut, Otzma Yehudit & Noam withdraw
Date Polling firm Publisher Likud Blue &
White
Joint
List
Shas UTJ Labor-Gesher Yamina Yisrael
Beiteinu
Dem.
Union
Oth. Gov.
27–29 Aug Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom[4] 31 31 11 8 7 4 12 11 5 62 58
Left-Wing Union (including Democratic Union) and URWP + New Right
Date Polling firm Publisher Likud Blue &
White
Joint
List
Shas UTJ Labor+
Dem. Union
Yisrael
Beiteinu
URWP+
New Right
Oth. Gov.
25 Jul KANTAR Kan 11[59] 29 29 10 7 8 14 8 15 61 59
Left-Wing Union (including Democratic Union)
Date Polling firm Publisher Likud Blue &
White
Joint
List
Shas UTJ Labor+
Dem. Union
Yisrael
Beiteinu
URWP New Right Oth. Gov.
25 Jul Midgam Channel 12[57] 29 27 11 7 8 15 10 4 9 63 57
Union of the Right-Wing Parties + New Right headed by Ayelet Shaked (including Democratic Union and Zehut)
Date Polling firm Publisher Likud Blue &
White
Joint
List
Shas UTJ Labor Yisrael
Beiteinu
URWP+
New Right
Dem. Union Zehut Oth. Gov.
25 Jul Panel Project
HaMidgam & Statnet
Channel 13[56] 28 23 11 5 6 7 10 14 12 4 63 57
25 Jul Midgam Channel 12[57] 28 27 11 7 8 5 10 14 10 (1.9%) 63 57
Expanded Union of Right-Wing Parties headed by Ayelet Shaked (including Labor-Gesher)
Date Polling firm Publisher Likud Blue &
White
Joint
List
Shas UTJ Labor-Gesher Yisrael
Beiteinu
URWP+
New Right+
Zehut+
Otzma Yehudit
Meretz IDP Oth. Gov.
25 Jul Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom[93] 25 31 13 7 7 5 8 16 4 4 65 55
Expanded Union of Right-Wing Parties headed by Ayelet Shaked
Date Polling firm Publisher Likud Blue &
White
Joint
List
Shas UTJ Labor Yisrael
Beiteinu
URWP+
New Right+
Zehut+
Otzma Yehudit
Meretz Gesher IDP Oth. Gov.
18 Jul Dialog Arutz Sheva[94] 31 28 10 7 8 7 8 10 7 4 64 56
16 Jul Midgam Channel 12[70] 28 30 11 7 8 6 10 12 4 4 65 55
Expanded Union of Right-Wing Parties headed by Rafi Peretz (including Labor-Gesher)
Date Polling firm Publisher Likud Blue &
White
Joint
List
Shas UTJ Labor-Gesher Yisrael
Beiteinu
URWP+
New Right+
Zehut+
Otzma Yehudit
Meretz IDP Oth. Gov.
25 Jul Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom[93] 32 30 13 7 7 6 7 9 5 5 66 55
Expanded Union of Right-Wing Parties headed by Rafi Peretz
Date Polling firm Publisher Likud Blue &
White
Joint
List
Shas UTJ Labor Yisrael
Beiteinu
URWP+
New Right+
Zehut+
Otzma Yehudit
Meretz Gesher IDP Oth. Gov.
18 Jul Dialog Arutz Sheva[94] 32 29 11 6 7 7 8 8 7 4 67 53
10 Jul Kantar Saloona[95] 28 29 10 7 8 7 6 15 6 5 62 58
4 Jul Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom[74] 25 31 8 6 7 7 6 19 7 4 63 57
Left-Wing Union
Date Polling firm Publisher Likud Blue &
White
Joint
List
Shas UTJ Labor+
IDP+
Meretz
Yisrael
Beiteinu
URWP New Right Zehut Gesher Oth. Gov.
16 Jul Midgam Channel 12[70] 31 28 11 7 8 15 11 4 5 65 55
4 Jul Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom[74] 31 26 8 6 7 19 7 8 8 60 60
Likud+Ayelet Shaked, URWP+Naftali Bennett
Date Polling firm Publisher Likud Blue &
White
Shas UTJ Labor Hadash
Ta'al
Yisrael
Beiteinu
URWP Meretz Ra'am
Balad
Zehut Gesher Oth. Gov.
30 May Panels Politics Maariv[87] 41 34 7 8 4 8 7 6 5 57 63
Gabi Ashkenazi leading Blue & White
Date Polling firm Publisher Likud Blue &
White
Shas UTJ Labor Hadash
Ta'al
Yisrael
Beiteinu
URWP Meretz Ra'am
Balad
New
Right
Zehut Gesher Oth. Gov.
14 Jun Maagar Mohot 103fm[84] 33 35 7 8 4 6 8 4 5 4 5 63 57
Zehut and New Right merger
Date Polling firm Publisher Likud Blue &
White
Joint
List
Shas UTJ Labor Yisrael
Beiteinu
Meretz URWP New Right
Zehut
Gesher IDP Oth. Gov.
10 Jul Kantar Saloona[95] 30 29 10 7 8 6 8 6 5 6 4 64 56
9 Jul Kantar Kan 11[96] 30 30 9 7 8 7 9 6 4 5 5 66 54
Zehut and New Right merger and Left-Wing Union
Date Polling firm Publisher Likud Blue &
White
Joint
List
Shas UTJ Labor+
IDP+
Meretz
Yisrael
Beiteinu
URWP New Right
Zehut
Gesher Oth. Gov.
10 Jul Kantar Saloona[95] 29 30 10 7 8 18 7 5 6 65 55
Labor and Meretz merger without Gesher
Date Polling firm Publisher Likud Blue &
White
Joint
List
Shas UTJ Labor+
Meretz
Yisrael
Beiteinu
URWP New Right Zehut Gesher IDP Oth. Gov.
19 Jul Smith 103fm/Maariv[66] 32 27 10 8 7 13 9 4 6 4 63 57
Labor and IDP merger without Gesher, Expanded Union of Right-Wing Parties headed by Ayelet Shaked
Date Polling firm Publisher Likud Blue &
White
Joint
List
Shas UTJ Labor+
IDP
Yisrael
Beiteinu
URWP+
New Right+
Zehut+
Otzma Yehudit
Meretz Gesher Oth. Gov.
19 Jul Direct Polls Makor Rishon[67] 30 28 11 7 8 11 8 12 5 63 57
Labor and IDP merger without Gesher, Expanded Union of Right-Wing Parties headed by Rafi Peretz
Date Polling firm Publisher Likud Blue &
White
Joint
List
Shas UTJ Labor+
IDP
Yisrael
Beiteinu
URWP+
New Right+
Zehut+
Otzma Yehudit
Meretz Gesher Oth. Gov.
19 Jul Direct Polls Makor Rishon[67] 33 29 11 8 8 10 9 7 5 64 56
IDP and Meretz merger, New Right and URWP merger
Date Polling firm Publisher Likud Blue &
White
Joint
List
Shas UTJ Labor-Gesher Yisrael
Beiteinu
New Right+
URWP
IDP+
Meretz
Oth. Gov.
21 Jul KANTAR Kan 11[64] 28 29 10 7 8 7 10 12 9 65 55
URWP, New Right, and Otzma Yehudit merger
Date Polling firm Publisher Likud Blue &
White
Joint
List
Shas UTJ Labor-Gesher Yisrael
Beiteinu
URWP+
New Right+
Otzma Yehudit
Meretz Zehut IDP Oth. Gov.
21 Jul Midgam Channel 12[65] 28 29 11 7 8 7 9 13 4 (1.9%) 4 64 56
Democratic Union & URWP, New Right, and Otzma Yehudit merger
Date Polling firm Publisher Likud+
Kulanu
Blue &
White
Joint
List
Shas UTJ Labor-Gesher Yisrael
Beiteinu
UR+
Otzma
Dem.
Union
Zehut Oth. Gov.
1 Aug Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom[97] 29 28 12 7 7 5 11 13 8 64 56
30 Jul Midgam Channel 12[52] 29 30 11 7 8 5 10 13 7 (2.2%) 63 57
Democratic Union & URWP, New Right, Zehut, and Otzma Yehudit merger
Date Polling firm Publisher Likud+
Kulanu
Blue &
White
Joint
List
Shas UTJ Labor-Gesher Yisrael
Beiteinu
UR+
Zehut+
Otzma
Dem.
Union
Oth. Gov.
30 Jul Midgam Channel 12[52] 28 30 11 7 8 5 10 14 7 63 57

Preferred prime minister polls

Some opinion pollsters have asked voters which party leader they would prefer as Prime Minister. Their responses are given as percentages in the tables below.

Netanyahu vs Gantz
Date Polling firm Publisher Netanyahu Gantz Neither Don't Know
13 Sep Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13[98] 46 31 14
12–13 Sep Midgam Channel 12[11] 41 31 19 9
12 Sep Panels Politics Knesset Channel[14] 39 29
9–10 Sep Midgam Channel 12[19] 40 33
8–9 Sep Midgam Walla![21] 39 30 19 8
4–5 Sep Midgam Channel 12[25] 41 31 28
1–2 Sep Midgam Walla![27] 39 30 17 9
28 Aug Midgam Channel 12[32] 43 29 19 9
22 Aug Midgam Channel 12[34] 42 29 21 8
12 Aug Midgam Channel 12[41] 41 32 21 6
5 Aug Midgam Walla![44] 43 30 17 6
1 Aug Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13[49] 43 32 17
30 Jul Midgam Channel 12[52] 42 32 18 8
25 Jul Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13[56] 40 33 17 10
25 Jul Midgam Channel 12[57] 42 30
25 Jul Midgam & iPanel Walla![62] 41 30 22 5
21 Jul Midgam Channel 12[65] 39 29 22 10
16 Jul Midgam Channel 12[70] 40 28 22 10
3 Jul Midgam Channel 12[75] 40 30 21 9
30 May KANTAR Kan 11[89] 44 38
Netanyahu vs Barak
Date Polling firm Publisher Netanyahu Barak Neither Don't Know
3 Jul Midgam Channel 12[75] 41 16 34 9
General
Date Polling firm Publisher Netanyahu Gantz Lapid Ashkenazi Gabbay Peretz Lieberman Bennett Shaked Barak
10–11 Sep Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom[17] 42 28 2 3 3 4 3
4–5 Sep Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom[23] 40 23 3 4 3 5 3
4 Sep Panels Politics Knesset Channel[26] 34 24 2 6 2
27–29 Aug Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom[4] 40 24 4 2 4 6 4
20–22 Aug Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom[36] 39 23 5 3 3 5 4
1 Aug Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom[50] 35 24 5 6 10 7
11 Jul Midgam Walla![72] 42 22 6 7
4 Jul Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom[74] 35 22 4 3 12
3 Jul Statnet Channel 13[75] 46 22 10
2 Jun Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom[86] 39 27 3 3 2 5 3

Potential bias

Direct Polls institute, which conducts some of the polls, is owned by Shlomo Filber, the former director general of the Ministry of Communications and Likud campaign manager in the 2015 Israeli legislative election. Filber turned state's evidence in Case 4000, in which Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu has been indicted for bribery. In the April 2019 Israeli legislative election, Filber advised the New Right campaign, potentially compromising his objectivity. Filber's polling method is controversial and is based on SMS.[99]

See also

Notes

References

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