Opinion polling for the next Portuguese legislative election
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
In the run up to the next Portuguese legislative election, various organisations will carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Portugal. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the 2025 Portuguese legislative election, held on 18 May, to the present day.
Nationwide polling
Graphical summary
Polling
Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, parties are shaded with their colour. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.
Polls that show their results without distributing those respondents who are undecided or said they would abstain from voting, are re-calculated by removing these numbers from the totals through a simple rule of three, in order to obtain results comparable to other polls and the official election results.
| Polling firm/Link | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout |  |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
O | Lead | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICS/ISCTE | 15–24 May 2026 | 803 | ? | 27 | 31 | 20 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | N/a | 7 | 4 |
| Aximage | 18–19 May 2026 | 505 | ? | 23.2 | 33.4 | 23.5 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | N/a | 3.9 | 9.9 |
| Intercampus[a] | 8–14 May 2026 | 606 | ? | 25.6 | 26.4 | 21.6 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.4 | N/a | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| Aximage | 6–7 May 2026 | 803 | 72.0 | 25.1 | 31.0 | 25.0 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 2.3 | N/a | 3.9 | 5.9 |
| Aximage | 10–15 Apr 2026 | 500 | 71.7 | 24.3 | 30.6 | 23.6 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 1.8 | N/a | 3.7 | 6.3 |
| Intercampus[b] | 8–14 Apr 2026 | 608 | ? | 23.7 | 26.9 | 21.9 | 8.3 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | N/a | 2.6 | 3.2 |
| ICS/ISCTE | 27 Feb–8 Mar 2026 | 801 | ? | 29 | 29 | 25 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | Tie |
| Aximage | 2–3 Mar 2026 | 551 | 73.9 | 26.6 | 27.0 | 25.8 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 1.3 | N/a | 4.1 | 0.4 |
| Intercampus[c] | 6–13 Jan 2026 | 806 | ? | 26.3 | 23.4 | 25.1 | 9.4 | 7.6 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | N/a | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| Pitagórica | 11–19 Dec 2025 | 1,000 | ? | 29.7 | 23.1 | 22.6 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | N/a | 5.6 | 6.6 |
| Intercampus[d] | 12–16 Dec 2025 | 611 | ? | 25.6 | 25.4 | 23.5 | 9.1 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.4 | N/a | 2.1 | 0.2 |
| CESOP–UCP | 4–12 Dec 2025 | 1,185 | ? | 29 | 23 | 24 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 2 | <1 | 0 | 4 | 5 |
| Intercampus[e] | 14–19 Nov 2025 | 611 | ? | 26.1 | 25.2 | 23.6 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 2.5 | N/a | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| ICS/ISCTE | 7–17 Nov 2025 | 807 | ? | 31 | 28 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| Pitagórica | 5–14 Nov 2025 | 1,000 | ? | 38.5 | 26.4 | 16.7 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | N/a | 3.4 | 12.1 |
| Aximage | 23–27 Oct 2025 | 651 | 73.7 | 32.4 | 23.8 | 21.9 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 2.0 | N/a | 3.4 | 8.6 |
| Intercampus[f] | 20–26 Oct 2025 | 609 | ? | 28.0 | 25.4 | 24.4 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 3.0 | N/a | 1.4 | 2.6 |
| 2025 local elections[g] | 12 Oct 2025 | N/a | 59.3 | 35.6 (98) |
33.2 (90) |
11.9 (27) |
1.6 (1) |
1.1 (1) |
5.7 (12) |
1.0 (0) |
0.2 (0) |
0.5 (1) |
9.2 (0) |
2.4 |
| Pitagórica | 6–10 Oct 2025 | 625 | ? | 34.5 | 25.2 | 21.9 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 1.4 | N/a | 3.8 | 9.3 |
| Aximage | 2–5 Sep 2025 | 570 | 51.4 | 25.9 | 23.6 | 26.8 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.7 | N/a | 3.8 | 0.9 |
| Intercampus[h] | 7–14 Aug 2025 | 611 | ? | 28.9 | 26.3 | 22.1 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 3.2 | N/a | 1.0 | 2.6 |
| Intercampus[i] | 11–18 Jul 2025 | 606 | ? | 26.3 | 23.6 | 20.2 | 7.3 | 9.9 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 3.3 | N/a | 2.6 | 2.7 |
| Intercampus[j] | 5–15 Jun 2025 | 616 | ? | 29.9 | 21.8 | 21.7 | 8.4 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 3.9 | N/a | 1.8 | 8.1 |
| 2025 legislative election[1] | 18 May 2025 | N/a | 58.3 | 31.8 91 |
22.8 58 |
22.8 60 |
5.4 9 |
4.1 6 |
2.9 3 |
2.0 1 |
1.4 1 |
0.3 1 |
6.5 0 |
9.0 |
Leadership polls
Preferred prime minister
Poll results showing public opinion on who would make the best prime minister or who is better positioned to win are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first.
| Polling firm/Link | Fieldwork date |  |
 |
N | All 3/ O |
NO | Lead | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aximage | 18–19 May 2026 | 24 | 27 | 25 | 20 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| Intercampus | 8–14 May 2026 | 27.2 | 33.3 | 20.0 | N/a | N/a | 19.5 | 6.1 |
| Aximage | 10–15 Apr 2026 | 27 | 23 | 22 | 20 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
| Intercampus | 8–14 Apr 2026 | 28.5 | 29.8 | 23.0 | N/a | N/a | 18.8 | 1.3 |
| Aximage | 2–3 Mar 2026 | 31 | 23 | 23 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| Aximage | 23–27 Oct 2025 | 33 | 22 | 20 | 19 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| Aximage | 2–5 Sep 2025 | 28 | 20 | 24 | 20 | 1 | 7 | 4 |
| Intercampus | 11–18 Jul 2025 | 43.2 | 24.1 | N/a | N/a | N/a | 32.7 | 19.1 |
| 63.9 | N/a | 17.7 | N/a | N/a | 18.5 | 46.2 | ||
| Intercampus | 5–15 Jun 2025 | 56.3 | 28.7 | N/a | N/a | N/a | 14.9 | 27.6 |
Leaders' ratings
Poll results showing the public opinion on all political party leaders rated from 0 to 10[k] (with the former being strong disapproval and the latter strong approval) are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order (showing the most recent first).
| Polling firm/Link | Fieldwork date | |
 |
 |
|
 |
 |
 |
 |
Lead | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICS/ISCTE | 15–24 May 2026 | 4.6 | 3.3 | N/a | 4.7 | 3.6 | N/a | 3.7 | 3.9 | 3.4 | N/a | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 0.1 |
| Intercampus | 8–14 May 2026 | 5.2 | 5.0 | N/a | 5.8 | 4.4 | N/a | 5.4 | 5.6 | 4.8 | N/a | 4.8 | 5.0 | N/a | 0.2 |
| Intercampus | 8–14 Apr 2026 | 5.2 | 4.6 | N/a | 5.6 | 4.6 | N/a | 5.2 | 5.6 | 4.6 | N/a | 4.6 | 4.6 | N/a | Tie |
| ICS/ISCTE | 27 Feb–8 Mar 2026 | 5.2 | 3.9 | N/a | 5.0 | 3.9 | N/a | 4.1 | 4.2 | 3.4 | N/a | 3.9 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 0.2 |
| Intercampus | 12–16 Dec 2025 | 5.4 | 5.0 | N/a | 5.6 | 5.2 | N/a | 5.4 | 5.8 | 4.8 | N/a | 4.8 | 5.0 | N/a | 0.2 |
| Intercampus | 14–19 Nov 2025 | 5.8 | 5.0 | N/a | 5.8 | 4.8 | N/a | 5.4 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 4.2 | N/a | 5.0 | N/a | Tie |
| Intercampus | 20–26 Oct 2025 | 5.8 | 5.2 | N/a | 5.6 | 4.8 | N/a | 5.6 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 4.2 | N/a | 5.2 | N/a | 0.2 |
| Intercampus | 7–14 Aug 2025 | 5.8 | 5.0 | N/a | 5.6 | 5.2 | N/a | 5.4 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 4.6 | N/a | 5.2 | N/a | Tie |
| Intercampus | 11–18 Jul 2025 | 5.8 | 5.0 | N/a | 5.8 | 4.8 | N/a | 5.4 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 4.4 | N/a | 5.0 | N/a | Tie |
| Intercampus | 5–15 Jun 2025 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 4.6 | N/a | 4.6 | 5.6 | N/a | 5.8 | 4.6 | 4.2 | N/a | 5.0 | N/a | Tie |
Cabinet approval/disapproval ratings
Poll results showing public opinion on the performance of the Government are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first.
| Polling firm/Link | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Luís Montenegro's cabinet | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Approve | Disapprove | Neither | No opinion | Net | |||
| ICS/ISCTE | 15–24 May 2026 | 803 | 27.6 | 61.1 | N/a | 11.3 | 33.5 |
| Aximage | 18–19 May 2026 | 505 | 33 | 58 | N/a | 9 | 25 |
| Intercampus | 8–14 May 2026 | 606 | 23.2 | 47.8 | 26.7 | 2.3 | 21.1 |
| Aximage | 6–7 May 2026 | 803 | 40 | 53 | N/a | 8 | 13 |
| Aximage | 10–15 Apr 2026 | 500 | 41 | 54 | N/a | 6 | 13 |
| Intercampus | 8–14 Apr 2026 | 608 | 19.2 | 51.9 | 26.8 | 2.0 | 25.1 |
| ICS/ISCTE | 27 Feb–8 Mar 2026 | 801 | 35 | 56 | N/a | 9 | 21 |
| Aximage | 2–3 Mar 2026 | 551 | 42 | 51 | N/a | 7 | 9 |
| Intercampus | 12–16 Dec 2025 | 611 | 22.2 | 45.9 | 30.4 | 1.5 | 15.5 |
| CESOP–UCP | 4–12 Dec 2025 | 1,185 | 17 | 32 | 49 | 2 | 17 |
| Intercampus | 14–19 Nov 2025 | 611 | 26.4 | 40.5 | 31.8 | 1.3 | 8.7 |
| Aximage | 23–27 Oct 2025 | 651 | 49 | 43 | N/a | 8 | 6 |
| Intercampus | 20–26 Oct 2025 | 609 | 27.3 | 41.6 | 30.4 | 0.7 | 11.2 |
| Aximage | 2–5 Sep 2025 | 570 | 31 | 59 | N/a | 10 | 28 |
| Intercampus | 7–14 Aug 2025 | 611 | 25.7 | 39.4 | 32.7 | 2.2 | 6.7 |
| Intercampus | 11–18 Jul 2025 | 606 | 26.2 | 39.6 | 32.7 | 1.5 | 6.9 |
See also
Notes
- Results presented here exclude undecideds (10.7%). With their inclusion results are: PS: 23.6%; AD: 22.9%; CHEGA: 19.3%; IL: 7.0%; Livre: 5.2%; CDU: 3.6%; BE: 3.6%; PAN: 2.1%; Others/Invalid: 2.0%.
- Results presented here exclude undecideds (13.0%). With their inclusion results are: PS: 23.4%; AD: 20.6%; CHEGA: 19.0%; IL: 7.2%; Livre: 5.3%; CDU: 3.9%; BE: 2.6%; PAN: 2.6%; Others/Invalid: 2.3%.
- Results presented here exclude undecideds (9.0%). With their inclusion results are: AD: 24.0%; CHEGA: 22.9%; PS: 21.3%; IL: 8.6%; Livre: 6.9%; CDU: 2.0%; BE: 1.6%; PAN: 1.2%; Others/Invalid: 2.6%.
- Results presented here exclude undecideds (5.8%). With their inclusion results are: AD: 24.1%; PS: 23.9%; CHEGA: 22.1%; IL: 8.6%; Livre: 6.2%; CDU: 3.1%; BE: 2.9%; PAN: 1.3%; Others/Invalid: 2.0%.
- Results presented here exclude undecideds (10.2%). With their inclusion results are: AD: 23.4%; PS: 22.6%; CHEGA: 21.2%; IL: 7.2%; Livre: 5.8%; CDU: 3.5%; PAN: 2.2%; BE: 1.7%; Others/Invalid: 2.1%.
- Results presented here exclude undecideds (6.0%). With their inclusion results are: AD: 26.3%; PS: 23.9%; CHEGA: 22.9%; IL: 6.6%; Livre: 5.1%; CDU: 3.8%; PAN: 2.8%; BE: 1.3%; Others/Invalid: 1.3%.
- AD total is the sum of all PSD and CDS led coalitions; The totals for PS, Livre and BE also include coalitions led by these parties.
- Results presented here exclude undecideds (6.0%). With their inclusion results are: AD: 27.2%; PS: 24.7%; CHEGA: 20.8%; IL: 7.6%; Livre: 5.6%; PAN: 3.0%; BE: 2.6%; CDU: 1.6%; Others/Invalid: 0.9%.
- Results presented here exclude undecideds (8.0%). With their inclusion results are: AD: 24.2%; PS: 21.7%; CHEGA: 18.6%; Livre: 9.1%; IL: 6.7%; CDU: 3.7%; PAN: 3.0%; BE: 2.6%; Others/Invalid: 2.4%.
- Results presented here exclude undecideds (9.7%). With their inclusion results are: AD: 27.0%; PS: 19.7%; CHEGA: 19.6%; IL: 7.6%; Livre: 6.7%; PAN: 3.5%; CDU: 3.1%; BE: 1.6%; Others/Invalid: 1.6%.
- Intercampus and Aximage polls rate party leaders from 1 to 5. CESOP–UCP poll rates party leaders from 0 to 20. The results are adapted to match the ICS/ISCTE polls.