Opinion polling on a United Ireland
Surveying on Ireland as a single state
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
This page lists opinion polling for a United Ireland also known as a New Ireland.
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In Northern Ireland
The Good Friday Agreement states that the Secretary of State should call a referendum "if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland."[1]
| Date | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Yes | No | Undecided | Will not vote |
Lead | Excluding don't know | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14-17 February 2025 | LucidTalk/Belfast Telegraph[2] | 1,050 | 41% | 48% | 10% | 1% | 7% | 46% to 54% | "If there were a referendum (i.e. a ‘Border poll’) on the constitutional position of Northern Ireland within the week, – How would you vote?" |
| 6 September - 19 November 2024[3] | Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey 2024[4] | 1,199 | 36% | 42% | 11% | 5% | 6% | 46% to 54% | "Suppose there was a referendum tomorrow on the future of Northern Ireland and you were being asked to vote on whether Northern Ireland should unify with the Republic of Ireland. Would you vote 'yes' to unify with the Republic or 'no'? |
| August-September 2024[5] | ARINS/Irish Times[6] | 1,000[5] | 34% | 48% | 14% | 15% | 41% to 59% | "If there was a referendum in Northern Ireland asking people whether they want Northern Ireland to remain in the United Kingdom or to unify with the Republic of Ireland, how would you vote in that referendum?" | |
| 19 July - 27 August 2024 | Social Market Research Belfast[7] | 2,034 | 33.7% | 48.6% | 14% | 3.7% | 14.9% | 41% to 59% | |
| 9–12 February 2024 | LucidTalk[8] | 3,207 | 39% | 49% | 11% | 1% | 10% | 44% to 56% | "If there was a referendum on the constitutional position of Northern Ireland within the week, how would you vote?" |
| November 2023 | ARINS/ The Irish Times[9][10] | 1,019 | 30% | 51% | 15% | 5% | 21% | 37% to 63% | |
| 26 October – 3 November 2023 | The Institute of Irish Studies/Social Market Research[11] | 1,074 | 31% | 49% | 9% | N/A | 18% | 38% to 62% | "I would vote for a united Ireland tomorrow" |
| 17–30 June 2023 | The Institute of Irish Studies/Social Market Research[12] | 1,017 | 36.1% | 47.0% | 10% | 6.2% | 10.9% | 43% to 57% | "I would vote for a united Ireland tomorrow" |
| 14 January – 7 September 2023 | Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey 2023[13][14][15] | 1,200 | 35% | 47% | 10% | 5% | 12% | 43% to 57% | "Suppose there was a referendum tomorrow on the future of Northern Ireland and you were being asked to vote on whether Northern Ireland should unify with the Republic of Ireland. Would you vote 'yes' to unify with the Republic or 'no'?" |
| 5 September – 20 November 2022 | Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey[16][17] | 1,405 | 35% | 47% | 10% | 4% | 12% | 43% to 57% | "Suppose there was a referendum tomorrow on the future of Northern Ireland and you were being asked to vote on whether Northern Ireland should unify with the Republic of Ireland. Would you vote 'yes' to unify with the Republic or 'no'?" |
| 17 August 2022 – 15 October 2022 | ARINS/The Irish Times[18][19] | 1,009 | 27% | 50% | 23% | 23% | 35% to 65% | "If there was a referendum asking people whether they want Northern Ireland to remain in the United Kingdom or unify with the Republic of Ireland, how would you vote in that referendum?" | |
| August 2022 | LucidTalk[20] | 3,384 | 41% | 48% | 11% | 7% | 46% to 54% | "If there was a referendum (i.e. a 'Border poll') on the constitutional position of Northern Ireland today, would you vote for Northern Ireland to be.." | |
| 11–26 March 2022 | University of Liverpool/The Irish News[21] | 1,000 | 30.0% | 45.3% | *18.7% | 6% | 15.3% | 40% to 60% | "I would vote for a united Ireland tomorrow"*Neither Agree/Disagree |
| 15–18 November 2021 | Lord Ashcroft[22] | 3,301 | 41% | 49% | 8% | 8% | 46% to 54% | "If there was a referendum (i.e a 'border poll') on the constitutional position of Northern Ireland tomorrow, how would you vote?" | |
| October–December 2021 | Life & Times[23] | 1,397 | 34% | 48% | 11% | 4% | 14% | 41% to 59% | "If there was a referendum tomorrow, how would you vote?" |
| October 2021 | University of Liverpool[24] | 1,002 | 29.8% | 58.6% | 9.1% | 2.5% | 28.8% | 33% to 67% | "If there was a border poll tomorrow, would you vote for Northern Ireland to stay as part of the United Kingdom or for a United Ireland?" |
| 20–23 August 2021 | LucidTalk[25] | 2,403 | 42% | 49% | 9% | 0% | 7% | 46% to 54% | "If there was a referendum (i.e. a ‘Border poll’) on the constitutional position of Northern Ireland today, would you vote for Northern Ireland to be.." |
| June 2021 | Life & Times[26][27] | 30% | 53% | 9% | 5% | 23% | |||
| May 2021 | Belfast Telegraph/Kantar[28] | 35% | 44% | 21% | 9% | ||||
| April 2021 | LucidTalk[29] | 43% | 49% | 8% | 6% | ||||
| February 2021 | Savanta ComRes/ITV News[30] | 36% | 49% | 15% | 13% | ||||
| January 2021 | Lucid Talk/The Sunday Times[31] | 42.3% | 46.8% | 10.7% | 4.5% | ||||
| Brexit transition period ends and UK leaves the European Union, 31 December 2020 | |||||||||
| February 2020 | LucidTalk[32] | 45% | 47% | 8% | 2% | ||||
| February 2020 | Liverpool University[33] | 29% | 52% | 19% | 23% | ||||
| September 2019 | Lord Ashcroft[34] | 1,542 | 46% | 45% | 9% | 1% | "If there was a "border poll" tomorrow, how would you vote?" | ||
| March 2019 | Irish Times/Ipsos Mori[35] | 32% | 45% | 23% | 13% | ||||
| June 2018 | Lord Ashcroft[36] | 44% | 49% | 7% | 5% | ||||
| June 2018 | NILT[37][38] | 22% | 55% | 10% | 12% | 33% | |||
| May 2018 | LucidTalk/YouGov/BBC[39][40][41] | 42% | 45% | 12.7% | 0.2% | 3% | |||
| May 2018 | ICM | 21% | 50% | 18.9% | 9.7% | 29% | |||
| October 2017 | LucidTalk[42][43] | 34% | 55% | 9.8% | 1.1% | 21% | |||
| July 2017 | ESRC[44] | 27% | 52% | 21% | 25% | ||||
| August 2016 | Ipsos Mori[45] | 22% | 63% | 13% | 2% | 41% | Voters aged 18+ | ||
| Brexit referendum, 23 June 2016 | |||||||||
| Scottish independence referendum, 18 September 2014 | |||||||||
| January 2013 | Spotlight[46] | 17% | 65% | 5% | 12% | 48% | Voters aged 18+ | ||
| November 2003 | Millward Brown Ulster[47] | 1058 | 26% | 61% | 13% | 35% | "Should Northern Ireland be part of all-Ireland state or be part of UK?" (18+) | ||
| October-January 2002 | NI Life and Times Survey[48] | 1800 | 27% | 54% | 10% | 6% | 27% | "Suppose there was a referendum tomorrow on the future of Northern Ireland and you were being asked to vote on whether Northern Ireland should unify with the Republic of Ireland. Would you vote 'yes' to unify with the Republic or 'no'?" | |
| May 2001 | Millward Brown Ulster[47] | 27% | 58% | 15% | 31% | "Should Northern Ireland be part of all-Ireland state or be part of UK?" (18+) | |||
| June 1998 | Millward Brown Ulster[47] | 25% | 63% | 12% | 38% | "Should Northern Ireland be part of all-Ireland state or be part of UK?" (18+) | |||
| Belfast Good Friday Agreement is signed, 10 April 1998 | |||||||||
In the future
| Date | Polling organisation/client | Sample | Yes | No | Undecided | Will not vote |
Lead | Non standard question |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | LucidTalk/Belfast Telegraph[49] | 53% | In 20 years | |||||
| 9–12 February 2024 | LucidTalk[8][50] | 3,207 | 52% | 44% | – | – | 8% | At some point in the future |
| 17–30 June 2023 | The Institute of Irish Studies/Social Market Research[12] | – | 40% | 36% | – | – | 4% | In 15–20 years |
| August 2022 | LucidTalk[20] | 3,384 | 52% | 44% | 4% | – | 8% | If a referendum was held in 15–20 years time. |
| 11–26 March 2022 | University of Liverpool/The Irish News[21] | 1,000 | 33.4% | 41.5% | *17.9%* | 7.6% | 8.1% | In 15–20 years
*"Neither Agree/Disagree" |
| October 2015 | RTÉ BBC NI Cross Border Survey : ROI + NI[51] | 1,407 | 30% | 43% | 27% | – | 13% | "...in your lifetime?" |
Healthcare
| Date | Polling organisation/client | Yes | No | Undecided | Will not vote |
Lead | Non standard question |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 2020 | LucidTalk[52] | 35% | 34% | 26% | 1% | Reference to healthcare provision | |
By religion, age and region
Meanwhile, 35- to 44-year-olds are also in favour of Irish unity with a 49% to 37% split.
However, older generations would still vote in favour of the Union as 55% of 45-54 year-olds are in favour compared to 36% for Irish unity while the gap widens amongst those aged over 55 to 51% to 34%.
2025 LucidTalk poll
| Answer[53] | Age band | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| <35 | 35–44 | 45–54 | 55+ | |
| Yes (to a United Ireland) | 50% | 49% | 36% | 34% |
| No | 44% | 37% | 55% | 51% |
| Lead | 6% | 12% | 19% | 17% |
2024 poll
| Answer[8] | Age band | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18–24 | 25–34 | 35–44 | 45–54 | 55–64 | 65+ | |
| Yes (to a United Ireland) | 48% | 45% | 44% | 42% | 28% | 36% |
| No | 43% | 41% | 42% | 54% | 64% | 48% |
| Don't know | 9% | 14% | 13% | 4% | 8% | 13% |
| Lead | 5% | 4% | 2% | 12% | 36% | 12% |
2022 poll
| Answer[17] | Age band | Religion | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18–24 | 25–34 | 35–44 | 45–54 | 55–64 | 65+ | No religion | Catholic | Protestant | |
| Yes (to a United Ireland) | 43% | 45% | 36% | 34% | 33% | 26% | 36% | 67% | 8% |
| No | 24% | 37% | 38% | 51% | 51% | 60% | 42% | 14% | 81% |
| Don't know | 22% | 11% | 10% | 11% | 8% | 7% | 11% | 12% | 7% |
2016 poll
In 2016 an Ipsos MORI poll asked "If there was a referendum on the border tomorrow would you:" and the answers for different regions of Northern Ireland were as follows,[54]
| Belfast
City |
Greater
Belfast |
Down | Armagh | Tyrone/
Fermanagh |
Londonderry | Antrim | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vote to stay in the United Kingdom | 65% | 77% | 57% | 50% | 51% | 53% | 72% |
| Vote for Northern Ireland to join the Republic of Ireland outside the United Kingdom | 17% | 10% | 27% | 41% | 28% | 28% | 17% |
| Don't know | 17% | 10% | 13% | 7% | 19% | 16% | 6% |
| Would not vote | 0% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 6% |
The same poll recorded answers from people in different age groups as follows,[55]
| Age band | 18–24 | 25–34 | 35–44 | 45–54 | 55–64 | 65+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vote to stay in the United Kingdom | 67% | 63% | 51% | 57% | 60% | 77% |
| Vote for Northern Ireland to join the Republic of Ireland outside the United Kingdom | 19% | 19% | 30% | 28% | 22% | 14% |
| Don't know | 12% | 15% | 18% | 13% | 13% | 7% |
Answers from people of different religious backgrounds were as follows,[54]
| Answer | Community background | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Protestant | Catholic | Neither | |
| Vote to stay in the United Kingdom | 88% | 37% | 51% |
| Vote for Northern Ireland to join the Republic of Ireland outside the United Kingdom | 5% | 43% | 15% |
| Don't know | 5% | 17% | 30% |
2014 poll
An opinion poll of 1,089 people conducted by LucidTalk in 2014 around the time of the Scottish referendum posed several questions. On the question of whether or not there should be a border poll, 47% said "yes", 37% "no" and 16% "don't know".[56] On the question, "If a referendum on Irish Unity was called under the Good Friday Agreement would you vote: Yes for unity as soon as possible, Yes for unity in 20 years, or No for Northern Ireland to remain as it is", the results were as follows.[56][57]
| Answer | All
persons |
Religion | Age band | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Protestant | Catholic | 18–24 | 25–44 | 45–64 | 65+ | ||
| Yes, for unity as soon as possible | 5.7% | 1.8% | 9.8% | 12.2% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 3.3% |
| Yes, for unity in 20 years | 24.0% | 9.6% | 39.5% | 27.8% | 26.6% | 23.0% | 19.7% |
| No for Northern Ireland to remain as it is | 44.1% | 57.8% | 20.7% | 36.6% | 38.0% | 45.6% | 53.9% |
| No opinion/would not vote | 26.3% | 30.8% | 30.1% | 23.4% | 29.9% | 27.6% | 23.0% |
Brexit scenario polls
| Date | Polling organisation/client | Sample | Yes | No | Undecided | Will not vote |
Lead | Non standard question |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October–November 2018 | LucidTalk[58] | 1,334 | 48% | 48% | 4% | – | Even | If Northern Ireland left the EU on terms negotiated between the UK government and the EU |
| October–November 2018 | LucidTalk[58] | 1,334 | 55% | 42% | 3% | – | 13% | No deal scenario |
| October–November 2018 | LucidTalk[58] | 1,334 | 29% | 60% | 11% | – | 31% | If the UK remained an EU member state |
| September 2018 | OFOC/Deltapoll[59] | 52% | 39% | 9% | 13% | "Imagine now that the UK decided to LEAVE the EU..." | ||
| December 2017 | LucidTalk[60][61] | 48% | 45% | 6% | 0.7% | 3% | In the context of a hard Brexit | |
In the Republic of Ireland
| Date | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Yes | No | Undecided | Will not vote |
Lead | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 2023 | ARINS/ The Irish Times[9][10] | >1,000 | 64% | 16% | 13% | 5% | 48% | |
| August & September 2022 | The Irish Times/Arins Project[62] | 1,000 voters in Northern Ireland and the Republic | 66% | 16% | 13% | 5% | 50% | |
| December 2021 | Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI[63] | 1,200[64] | 62% | 16% | 13% | 8% | 46% | |
| November 2021 | Business Post/Red C[65] | 1,001 | 60% | 25% | 15% | 35% | ||
| March 2021 | RTÉ Claire Byrne Live/Amárach Research[66] | 1,000 | 53% | 19% | 28% | 34% | "Is it time for a united Ireland?" | |
| May 2019 | RTÉ/REDC[67] | Randomly selected sample of 3,016 eligible voters outside 156 polling stations | 65% | 19% | 15% | 46% | ||
| January 2019 | RTÉ Claire Byrne Live/Amárach Research[68] | 1,000 | 54% | 21% | 25% | 33% | "Are you in favour of a united Ireland" | |
| March 2017 | RTÉ Claire Byrne Live/Amárach Research[69] | 1,200 | 49% | 29% | 22% | 20% | ||
| December 2016 | RTÉ Claire Byrne Live/Amárach Research[70][71] | 46% | 32% | 22% | 14% | "Is it time to have a united Ireland"
54% aged 25–34 said yes | ||
| October 2010 | Red C/Sunday Times[72] | 1,005 | 57% | 22% | 21% | 35% | ||
Short to medium term
| "In the short to medium term, do you think Northern Ireland should..." (October 2015)[73] | Proportion |
|---|---|
| Remain part of the UK, with direct rule from Westminster | 9% |
| Remain part of the UK, with a devolved assembly and Executive in Northern Ireland (the current situation) | 35% |
| Unify with the rest of Ireland | 36% |
| Other | 1% |
| None of these | 2% |
| Don't know | 17% |
Long term
When asked about tax
| "Would you be in favour or against a united Ireland if it meant ..." (October 2015)[75] | You would have to pay less tax | There would be no change in the amount of tax you pay | You would have to pay more tax |
|---|---|---|---|
| In favour of a united Ireland | 73% | 63% | 31% |
| Against a united Ireland | 8% | 14% | 44% |
| Don't know | 18% | 24% | 25% |
In Great Britain
A 2019 poll by Ipsos Mori and King's College London asked people in Great Britain (England, Scotland, and Wales): "If there were to be a referendum in Northern Ireland on its future, would you personally prefer Northern Ireland to choose to stay in the UK or leave the UK and join the Republic of Ireland?" The responses revealed that 36% wanted Northern Ireland to stay in the UK, 19% wanted it to join the Republic, 36% had no preference, and 9% were undecided.[76] It further revealed that support for Northern Ireland remaining in the UK was highest among those who intended to vote Conservative (49%) compared to 35% for Labour voters and 31% for Liberal Democrat voters.[76]
A 2023 state of the union poll asking if Ireland should unite showed that respondents from Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales and England all had net positive views on the unification. On a scale from −10 to definitely remain in the UK to +10 to definitely unite Ireland; the people of Scotland had a net score of +1.9, England at +0.9, Wales at +0.6, and those in Northern Ireland at +0.6 also.[77]
