2022 Texas gubernatorial election
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2022 Texas gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Texas. Incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott won re-election to a third term, defeating the Democratic nominee, former Congressman Beto O'Rourke.[1] All statewide elected offices were currently held by Republicans. In his previous gubernatorial race in 2018, Abbott won with 55.8% of the vote.[2]
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November 8, 2022
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| Turnout | 45.85%  | ||||||||||||||||
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   Abbott: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% O'Rourke: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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The Democratic and Republican primaries were held on March 1, 2022. O'Rourke and Abbott won outright majorities in their respective primaries, and therefore did not participate in the May 24 runoffs.
Texas had not elected a Democratic candidate for governor since Ann Richards won a narrow victory in 1990. Additionally, Abbott had a strong approval rating on election day, with 55% of voters approving to 45% disapproving.[3] Beto O'Rourke, who gained national attention in 2018 for his unusually close and competitive campaign against Senator Ted Cruz, was at one-time widely viewed as a rising star in the Texas Democratic Party and potential challenger for Abbott. However, in the intervening years, he amassed baggage that was leveraged against him in 2022. A failed run for President of the United States in 2020 was leveraged by Republicans to characterize him as opportunistic. Stances he had taken (and since reneged) related to gun control during that presidential campaign were also leveraged against him by Republicans.
Abbott won by 10.9%, a slightly smaller margin of victory than his 13.3% margin in 2018 in spite of a much more Republican national climate in 2022, making this the closest gubernatorial election in Texas since 2006, and the closest election of Abbott's entire political career since his first race for the Texas Supreme Court in 1998. Beto O'Rourke, meanwhile, performed 8.3% worse than his 2018 Senate run, but he still won the highest share for a Democratic gubernatorial candidate since Ann Richards received 45.9% in her unsuccessful reelection bid against George W. Bush in 1994. Abbott's raw vote total was less than his 4.65 million in 2018, while O'Rourke set a record of most raw votes for a Texas Democratic gubernatorial candidate at around 3.55 million, but it was also less than his 4.04 million vote total in the 2018 Senate race.
Abbott carried 235 out of 254 counties, flipping the heavily Hispanic counties of Culberson and Zapata and becoming the first Republican gubernatorial candidate to win the latter in the state's history (though Zapata had earlier voted Republican in the 2020 presidential election), while O'Rourke became the first Democratic gubernatorial candidate to win the county of Fort Bend since 1974. O'Rourke outperformed Joe Biden two years prior among Latino voters, though his performance with them was still worse than past nominees.
Republican primary
On June 4, 2021, Texas Republican Party chairman Allen West announced his resignation as party chair.[4] West criticized Gov. Greg Abbott's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic in Texas.[5] The history of conflict between West and Abbott included a lawsuit by West and other Republicans challenging Abbott's extension of the early voting period in 2020, as well as a protest outside the Governor's Mansion over pandemic-related shutdowns as well as mask mandates.[6] On July 4, 2021, West announced that he would challenge Abbott in the 2022 gubernatorial primary.[7] Both West and fellow gubernatorial candidate Don Huffines were considered more conservative than Abbott.[8][9] On March 1, 2022, Abbott won the Republican primary by a smaller margin than in 2018.
Candidates
Nominee
- Greg Abbott, incumbent governor and former Texas Attorney General[10][11]
Eliminated in primary
- Paul G. Belew, criminal defense attorney[12]
- Danny Harrison, businessman[13]
- Kandy Kaye Horn, philanthropist[14][15]
- Don Huffines, former member of the Texas Senate[16]
- Ricky Lynn Perry, staffing agency employee[17]
- Chad Prather, podcaster / talk show host, activist, and stand-up comedian[18]
- Allen West, former chair of the Texas Republican Party and former U.S. representative for Florida's 22nd congressional district[7][19]
Withdrawn
- Martin Holsome, former Rusk city councillor[20]
- Kurt Schwab, military veteran[18][failed verification]
Declined
- George P. Bush, Texas Land Commissioner and member of the Bush family (ran for Attorney General)[21][22][23]
- Christi Craddick, Texas Railroad Commissioner[21]
- Glenn Hegar, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts (running for re-election)[24]
- Sid Miller, Texas Agriculture Commissioner (running for re-election)[22]
- Rick Perry, former governor and former U.S. Secretary of Energy[17]
- Joe Straus, former Speaker of the Texas House of Representatives[25]
Endorsements
U.S. executive branch officials
- Sarah Huckabee Sanders, former White House Press Secretary (2017–2019) and governor of Arkansas 2023-present[26]
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)[27]
U.S. senators
- Ted Cruz, U.S. senator from Texas (2013–present)[28]
State officials
- Ken Paxton, 50th attorney general of Texas (2015–present)[29]
Organizations
- Combined Law Enforcement Associations of Texas[30]
- National Border Patrol Council[31]
- National Federation of Independent Business[32]
- NRA Political Victory Fund[33]
- Susan B. Anthony List[34]
- Texas Apartment Association[35]
- Texas Association of Business[36]
- Texas Farm Bureau AGFUND[37]
- Texas for Lawsuit Reform[38]
- Texas Medical Association[38]
- Texas Municipal Police Association[38]
- Texas Oil and Gas Association[39]
U.S. senators
- Rand Paul, U.S. senator from Kentucky (2011–present)[40]
U.S. representatives
- Ron Paul, former U.S. representative for Texas's 22nd congressional district (1976–1977, 1979–1985) and Texas's 14th congressional district (1997–2013)[41]
Texas state representatives
Matt Rinaldi, chair of the Republican Party of Texas (2021–present) and former state representative (2015–2019)(withdrawn at Huffines's request following Rinaldi's election as chair of the Texas Republican Party)[42]- Jonathan Stickland, former state representative (2013–2021)[43]
Local officials
- Don McLaughlin, mayor of Uvalde (2014–2023)[44]
Individuals
- Julie McCarty, True Texas Project CEO[45]
- Katrina Pierson, national spokesperson for Donald Trump's 2016 presidential campaign[46]
Texas state representatives
- Kyle Biedermann, state representative (2017–present)[47]
Individuals
- Ted Nugent, musician and political activist[48]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Greg Abbott |
Don Huffines |
Ricky Lynn Perry |
Chad Prather |
Allen West |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[49] | February 25–28, 2022 | 1,040 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 62% | 10% | 2% | 2% | 15% | 5%[b] | 3% |
| Emerson College[50] | February 21–22, 2022 | 522 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 61% | 9% | 3% | 3% | 12% | 3%[c] | 9% |
| UT Tyler[51] | February 8–15, 2022 | 581 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 60% | 3% | 6% | 3% | 7% | 5%[d] | 15% |
| YouGov/UT[52] | January 28 – February 7, 2022 | 375 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 60% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 15% | 3%[e] | – |
| Paradigm Partners (R)[53][A] | January 31, 2022 | 1,542 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 34% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 43% | 3%[f] | 4% |
| UT Tyler[54] | January 18–25, 2022 | 514 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 59% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 6% | 4%[g] | 20% |
| YouGov/UH[55] | January 14–24, 2022 | 490 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 58% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 11% | 2%[h] | 17% |
| Paradigm Partners (R)[56][A] | January 9, 2022 | 1,486 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 33% | 5% | 12% | 3% | 38% | 3%[i] | 7% |
| Paradigm Partners (R)[56][A] | December 16, 2021 | 447 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 33% | 2% | 15% | 1% | 35% | – | 14% |
| Paradigm Partners (R)[56][A] | November 30, 2021 | – (LV) | – | 42% | 3% | – | 2% | 36% | – | 17% |
| UT Tyler[57] | November 9–16, 2021 | 520 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 65% | 3% | – | 6% | 6% | 3% | 18% |
| Paradigm Partners (R)[56][A] | November 11, 2021 | – (LV) | – | 43% | 3% | – | 2% | 33% | – | 19% |
| YouGov/UT/TT[58] | October 22–31, 2021 | 554 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 56% | 7% | – | 4% | 13% | 4% | 16% |
| YouGov/TXHPF[59] | October 14–27, 2021 | 405 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 61% | 4% | – | 3% | 13% | – | 19% |
| UT Tyler[60] | September 7–14, 2021 | 427 (LV) | ± 6.1% | 70% | 15% | – | – | – | 15% | – |
| 431 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 65% | – | – | – | 20% | 15% | – | ||
| Victory Insights (R)[61] | July 22–24, 2021 | 400 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 80% | – | – | – | 20% | – | – |
| Paradigm Partners (R)[56][A] | June 30, 2021 | – (LV) | – | 73% | – | – | – | 17% | – | 10% |
| UT Tyler[62] | June 22–29, 2021 | 440 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 77% | 12% | – | – | – | 11% | – |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Greg Abbott |
Don Huffines |
Sid Miller |
Allen West |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[63][B] | June 14–17, 2021 | 446 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 69% | 3% | 3% | 13% | – |
Results
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Greg Abbott (incumbent) | 1,299,059 | 66.48% | |
| Republican | Allen West | 239,557 | 12.26% | |
| Republican | Don Huffines | 234,138 | 11.98% | |
| Republican | Chad Prather | 74,173 | 3.80% | |
| Republican | Ricky Lynn Perry | 61,424 | 3.14% | |
| Republican | Kandy Kaye Horn | 23,605 | 1.21% | |
| Republican | Paul Belew | 11,387 | 0.58% | |
| Republican | Danny Harrison | 10,829 | 0.55% | |
| Total votes | 1,954,172 | 100% | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Beto O'Rourke, former U.S. representative for Texas's 16th congressional district, nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018 and candidate for president of the United States in 2020[65]
Eliminated in primary
- Inocencio Barrientez, fitness trainer[14]
- Michael Cooper, pastor, candidate for lieutenant governor in 2018, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020[66]
- Joy Diaz, reporter[67]
- Rich Wakeland, former advisor to Public Utility Commissioner Ken Anderson[68][69]
Disqualified
Declined
- Steve Adler, mayor of Austin[70]
- Joaquin Castro, U.S. representative for Texas's 20th congressional district[71] (endorsed O'Rourke)[72]
- Julián Castro, former U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, former mayor of San Antonio, and candidate for president of the United States in 2020[73]
- Wendy Davis, former state senator, nominee for governor in 2014, and nominee for Texas's 21st congressional district in 2020[74]
- Veronica Escobar, U.S. representative for Texas's 16th congressional district, former El Paso commissioner, and former El Paso county judge (running for re-election)[75]
- Lina Hidalgo, Harris County judge[76][77]
Endorsements
U.S. senators
- Kirsten Gillibrand, U.S. senator from New York (2009–present) and candidate for president of the United States in 2020[78]
U.S. representatives
- Rubén Hinojosa, former U.S. representative for Texas's 15th congressional district (1997–2017)[79]
Local officials
- Ron Nirenberg, mayor of San Antonio (2017–present) (Independent)[80]
Labor unions
- Texas Federation of Teachers[81]
- Texas AFL–CIO[82]
- Texas State Employees Union[83]
Organizations
- Democracy for America[84]
- End Citizens United[85]
- Let America Vote[85]
- March On[86]
- MoveOn[87]
- Planned Parenthood Texas Votes[88]
- Stonewall Democrats[89]
- Texas College Democrats[90]
Newspapers and other media
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Inocencio Barrientez |
Michael Cooper |
Joy Diaz |
Jack Foster Jr. |
Deirdre Gilbert |
Star Locke |
Beto O'Rourke |
Rich Wakeland |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[50] | February 21–22, 2022 | 388 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 1% | 5% | 4% | – | – | – | 78% | 2% | – | 11% |
| UT Tyler[51] | February 8–15, 2022 | 479 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 68% | 2% | – | 14% |
| YouGov/UT[52] | January 28 – February 7, 2022 | 348 (LV) | ± 5.3% | 2% | 1% | 2% | – | – | – | 93% | 1% | 1% | – |
| UT Tyler[54] | January 18–25, 2022 | 459 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 1% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 58% | 0% | – | 27% |
| YouGov/UH[55] | January 14–24, 2022 | 616 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | – | – | – | 73% | 1% | – | 16% |
| YouGov/UT/TT[58] | October 22–31, 2021 | 436 (RV) | ± 4.7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 70% | – | 5% | 25% |
Results
- O'Rourke—>90%
- O'Rourke—80–90%
- O'Rourke—70–80%
- O'Rourke—60–70%
- O'Rourke—50–60%
- O'Rourke—40–50%
- Wakeland—40–50%
- Barrientez—50–60%
- No vote
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Beto O'Rourke | 983,182 | 91.41% | |
| Democratic | Joy Diaz | 33,622 | 3.13% | |
| Democratic | Michael Cooper | 32,673 | 3.04% | |
| Democratic | Rich Wakeland | 13,237 | 1.23% | |
| Democratic | Inocencio Barrientez | 12,887 | 1.20% | |
| Total votes | 1,075,601 | 100% | ||
Green primary
Candidates
Declared
- Delilah Barrios, environmental activist[95]
Libertarian convention
Candidates
Declared
- Mark Jay Tippetts, attorney, former Lago Vista city councilman, and nominee for governor in 2018[96]
Withdrew/disqualified
- Dan Behrman, software engineer, internet personality, candidate for Texas House of Representatives in 2014, and candidate for President of the United States in 2020[97][98]
- Andrew Jewell, industrial maintenance technician, Secretary of Libertarian Party of Dallas County, chair of Texas Libertarian Party Radical Caucus, and candidate for Dallas County Commissioner District 3 in 2020[98]
Independents and other parties
Candidates
Declared
- Jacqueline Abernathy, public health policies consultant and American Solidarity Party candidate
- Deirdre Dickson-Gilbert, public educator (previously ran for Democratic nomination)[99][14][100]
- Ricardo Turullols-Bonilla, retired educator and write-in candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020[101][better source needed]
Disqualified
- Patrick Wynne, software engineer, data scientist and U.S. Navy veteran (Reform Party)[102][better source needed]
Declined
- Matthew McConaughey, Academy Award-winning actor[103][104] (no declared party affiliation)[105]
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[106] | Likely R | March 4, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[107] | Solid R | July 22, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[108] | Likely R | June 29, 2022 |
| Politico[109] | Likely R | April 1, 2022 |
| RCP[110] | Lean R | January 10, 2022 |
| Fox News[111] | Likely R | May 12, 2022 |
| 538[112] | Solid R | September 21, 2022 |
| Elections Daily[113] | Likely R | November 7, 2022 |
Debates
| No. | Date | Host | Moderators | Link | Republican | Democratic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key:
P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn |
||||||
| Greg Abbott | Beto O'Rourke | |||||
| 1 | Sep. 30, 2022 | KXAN-TV | Sally Hernandez Gromer Jeffers Steve Spriester |
KXAN-TV[114] | P | P |
Post-primary endorsements
U.S. senators
- John Cornyn, U.S. senator from Texas (2003–present)[115]
U.S. representatives
- Dan Crenshaw, U.S. representative for Texas's 2nd congressional district (2019–present)[116]
- Louie Gohmert, U.S. representative for Texas's 1st congressional district (2005–2023)[117]
Governors
- Mike Huckabee, 44th governor of Arkansas (1996–2007) and candidate for president in 2008 and 2016[118]
State officials
- Cole Hefner, state representative from the 5th district (2017–present)[117]
- Bryan Hughes, state senator from the 1st district (2017–present)[117]
- Ken King, state representative from the 88th district (2013–present)[119]
- Four Price, state representative from the 87th district (2011–2025)[119]
- John T. Smithee, state representative from the 86th district (1985–present)[119]
Newspapers
- The Amarillo Pioneer[120]
- The Beaumont Examiner[121]
- Fort Worth Star-Telegram[122]
Organizations
- Americans for Prosperity[123]
- The LIBRE Initiative[124]
- National Right to Life Committee[125]
- Texas Alliance for Life[126]
- Texas Association of Realtors[127]
U.S. executive branch officials
- Julian Castro, 16th United States Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (2014–2017) and candidate for President in 2020[128]
- Barack Obama, 44th president of the United States (2009–2017)[129]
U.S. representatives
- Colin Allred, U.S. representative for Texas's 32nd congressional district (2019–present)[130]
- Sylvia Garcia, U.S. representative for Texas's 29th congressional district (2019–present)[131]
- Eddie Bernice Johnson, U.S. representative for Texas's 30th congressional district (1993–2023)[132]
- Sheila Jackson Lee, U.S. representative for Texas's 18th congressional district (1995–present)[131]
State officials
- Julie Johnson, state representative from the 115th district (2019–present)[132]
- Shawn Thierry, state representative from the 146th district (2017–present)[133]
County officials
- Lina Hidalgo, Harris County judge (2019–present)[131]
Local officials
- Sylvester Turner, mayor of Houston (2016–2024)[134]
Individuals
- Matthew Broderick, actor[135]
- The Chicks, country band[136]
- Will Ferrell, actor and comedian[137]
- Selena Gomez, actress and singer[138]
- Luci Baines Johnson, businesswoman and daughter of U.S. President Lyndon B. Johnson[139]
- Lin-Manuel Miranda, actor[140]
- Kacey Musgraves, country singer[141]
- Willie Nelson, country singer[142]
- Gwyneth Paltrow, actress[143]
- Sarah Jessica Parker, actress[135]
- Gregg Popovich, professional basketball coach[144]
- George Soros, businessman[145]
- Lionel Sosa, marketing executive[146]
- Harry Styles, musician[147]
- Kerry Washington, actress[148]
- Hayley Williams, singer[149]
- Oprah Winfrey, businesswoman and talk show host[150]
- Eugene Lee Yang, filmmaker[151]
Labor unions
Organizations
- Common Defense[154]
- Equality Texas[155]
- Everytown for Gun Safety[156]
- Feminist Majority PAC[152]
- Giffords[157]
- Human Rights Campaign[158]
- Jolt Action[159]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America[160]
- National Nurses United[152]
- Texas Organizing Project[161]
- Texas Rising Action[162]
- Voter Protection Project[152]
Newspapers
Polling
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Greg Abbott (R) |
Beto O'Rourke (D) |
Other [j] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Clear Politics[164] | October 3–19, 2022 | October 25, 2022 | 52.8% | 43.5% | 3.7% | Abbott +9.3 |
| FiveThirtyEight[165] | June 14, 2021 – October 25, 2022 | October 25, 2022 | 51.4% | 42.9% | 5.7% | Abbott +8.5 |
| Average | 52.1% | 43.2% | 4.7% | Abbott +8.9 | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Greg Abbott (R) |
Beto O'Rourke (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS Research (R)[166][C] | November 2–5, 2022 | 786 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 53% | 42% | 2% | 3% |
| UT Tyler[167] | October 17–24, 2022 | 1,330 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 44% | 7%[k] | 1% |
| 973 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 44% | 5%[l] | 1% | ||
| Emerson College[168] | October 17–19, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 42% | 1%[m] | 4% |
| 53% | 44% | 3%[n] | – | ||||
| Siena College[169] | October 16–19, 2022 | 649 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 52% | 43% | 2%[o] | 4% |
| Beacon Research (D)[170][D] | October 15–19, 2022 | 1,264 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 48% | 45% | – | – |
| BSP Research/UT[171][E] | October 11–18, 2022 | 1,400 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 46% | 42% | 3%[p] | 9% |
| YouGov/UT[172] | October 7–17, 2022 | 833 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 54% | 43% | 4%[q] | 2% |
| Civiqs[173] | October 8–11, 2022 | 791 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 44% | 3%[r] | 0% |
| Marist College[174] | October 3–6, 2022 | 1,058 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 45% | 1%[s] | 5% |
| 898 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 52% | 44% | 1%[t] | 4% | ||
| Quinnipiac University[175] | September 22–26, 2022 | 1,327 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 53% | 46% | 2%[u] | – |
| Emerson College[176] | September 20–22, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 42% | 4%[v] | 5% |
| ActiVote[177] | June 23 – September 21, 2022 | 323 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 47% | 40% | 12%[w] | – |
| Siena College[178] | September 14–18, 2022 | 651 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 43% | 2%[x] | 5% |
| Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation[179] | September 6–15, 2022 | 1,172 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 51% | 44% | 2%[y] | 3% |
| UT Tyler[180] | September 7–13, 2022 | 1,268 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 38% | 9%[z] | 2% |
| Data for Progress (D)[181] | September 2–9, 2022 | 712 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 45% | 2%[aa] | 3% |
| Echelon Insights[182] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 813 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 46% | – | 6% |
| YouGov/UT[183] | August 26 – September 6, 2022 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 45% | 40% | 4%[ab] | 11% |
| YouGov/UH/TSU[184] | August 11–29, 2022 | 1,312 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 49% | 42% | 2%[ac] | 7% |
| UT Tyler[185] | August 1–7, 2022 | 1,384 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 46% | 39% | 13%[ad] | 1% |
| 1,215 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 42% | 9%[ae] | 1% | ||
| YouGov/UH[186] | June 27 – July 7, 2022 | 1,169 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 42% | 2%[af] | 9% |
| 1,006 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 44% | 2%[af] | 5% | ||
| YouGov/CBS News[187] | June 22–27, 2022 | 548 (LV) | ± 6.6% | 49% | 41% | 4% | 6% |
| YouGov/UT[188] | June 16–24, 2022 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 45% | 39% | 6%[ag] | 10% |
| YouGov/PerryUndem[189] | June 15–24, 2022 | 2,000 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 47% | 43% | 3% | 5% |
| Quinnipiac University[175] | June 9–13, 2022 | 1,257 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 48% | 43% | 2% | 5% |
| Blueprint Polling (D)[190] | June 8–10, 2022 | 603 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 56% | 37% | – | 7% |
| UT Tyler[191] | May 2–10, 2022 | 1,232 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 39% | 14%[ah] | 2% |
| YouGov/UT[192] | April 14–22, 2022 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 48% | 37% | 7% | 9% |
| YouGov/TXHPF[193] | March 18–28, 2022 | 1,139 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 50% | 42% | 3%[ai] | 5% |
| Texas Lyceum[194] | March 11–20, 2022 | 926 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 42% | 40% | 7% | 11% |
| Emerson College[50] | February 21–22, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 45% | – | 3% |
| UT Tyler[51] | February 8–15, 2022 | 1,188 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 38% | 16% | 1% |
| Climate Nexus[195] | February 1–9, 2022 | 806 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 45% | 40% | 7% | 8% |
| YouGov/UT[52] | January 28 – February 7, 2022 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 47% | 37% | 6% | 11% |
| UT Tyler[54] | January 18–25, 2022 | 1,072 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 36% | 16% | 1% |
| YouGov/UH[55] | January 14–24, 2022 | – (LV)[aj] | –[aj] | 48% | 43% | 3%[ak] | 6% |
| Quinnipiac University[196] | December 2–6, 2021 | 1,224 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 52% | 37% | 4% | 6% |
| UT Tyler[57] | November 9–16, 2021 | 1,106 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 45% | 39% | 16% | – |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[197] | November 9, 2021 | 884 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 40% | 39% | 5% | 7% |
| 854 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 43% | 44% | 5% | 6% | ||
| YouGov/UT/TT[58] | October 22–31, 2021 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 46% | 37% | 7% | 10% |
| YouGov/TXHPF[59] | October 14–27, 2021 | 1,402 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 42% | 3%[al] | 12% |
| UT Tyler[60] | September 7–14, 2021 | 1,148 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 42% | 37% | 21% | – |
| UT Tyler[62] | June 22–29, 2021 | 1,090 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 33% | 22% | – |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[198][F] | June 14–17, 2021 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 52% | 42% | – | 6% |
Greg Abbott vs. Julián Castro
Greg Abbott vs. Beto O'Rourke with Matthew McConaughey as an independent
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Greg Abbott (R) |
Beto O'Rourke (D) |
Matthew McConaughey (I) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Echelon Insights[182] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 813 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 39% | 13% | – | 6% |
| UT Tyler[57] | November 9–16, 2021 | 1,106 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 37% | 26% | 27% | 10% | – |
| YouGov/TXHPF[59] | October 14–27, 2021 | 1,402 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 40% | 37% | 9% | 2%[am] | 12% |
Greg Abbott vs. Don Huffines
Greg Abbott vs. Matthew McConaughey
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Greg Abbott (R) |
Matthew McConaughey |
Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UT Tyler[57] | November 9–16, 2021 | 1,106 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 35% | 43% | 22% |
| UT Tyler[60] | September 7–14, 2021 | 1,148 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 35% | 44% | 21% |
| UT Tyler[62] | June 22–29, 2021 | 1,090 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 38% | 23% |
| UT Tyler[199] | April 6–13, 2021 | 1,124 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 33% | 45% | 22% |
Greg Abbott vs. generic Democrat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Greg Abbott (R) |
Generic Democrat |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress (D)[200][G] | September 15–22, 2020 | 726 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 34% | 20% |
Greg Abbott vs. generic opponent
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Greg Abbott (R) |
Generic Opponent |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University[201] | September 24–27, 2021 | 863 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 42% | 51% | 7% |
| Quinnipiac University[202] | June 15–21, 2021 | 1,099 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Greg Abbott (incumbent) | 4,437,099 | 54.76% | 1.05 | |
| Democratic | Beto O'Rourke | 3,553,656 | 43.86% |  1.35 | |
| Libertarian | Mark Tippetts | 81,932 | 1.01% | 0.68 | |
| Green | Delilah Barrios | 28,584 | 0.35% | N/A | |
| American Solidarity | Jacqueline Abernathy | 1,243 | 0.02% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 8,102,908 | 100.00% | |||
| Majority | 883,443 | 10.90% | 2.40 | ||
| Turnout | 8,102,908 | 45.85% | 6.98 | ||
| Registered electors | 17,672,143 | ||||
| Republican hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Fort Bend (largest city: Sugar Land)
|
Democratic
Hold
Gain from Republican |
Republican
Hold
Gain from Democratic
|
By congressional district
Abbott won 25 of 38 congressional districts.[204]
Analysis
Texas Democrats hoped for Beto O'Rourke to achieve an upset over the incumbent Greg Abbott, which did not materialize. Abbott won by 10.9%, down from 13.3% in 2018. Abbott's margin was slightly larger than aggregate polling, but virtually in line with the last poll conducted. He won the vast majority of counties (235 out of 254), mostly rural, and by significantly wide margins. In particular, 34 counties, mainly in West Texas and the Texas panhandle, gave Abbott over 90% of the vote. This was the most by any Texas Republican gubernatorial candidate, and the most for any candidate since Democrat Allan Shivers' 1954 re-election.[206]
Abbott won the three largest metro areas in the state, which include Dallas–Fort Worth–Arlington in North Texas, Houston–The Woodlands–Sugar Land in Southeast Texas, and San Antonio–New Braunfels in South-Central Texas. He also won all of the state's mid-sized metro areas outside of the Rio Grande Valley, which include Corpus Christi along the coastal bend; Waco, Killeen–Temple–Fort Hood, and Bryan–College Station in Central Texas; Beaumont–Port Arthur, Tyler and Longview in East Texas; Lubbock, Abilene, and Midland-Odessa in West Texas; and Amarillo in the Panhandle. Abbott also won an urban county, Tarrant, home to Fort Worth and did well in the suburban counties of the Texas Triangle, winning Brazoria, Galveston, and Montgomery counties around Houston; Comal and Guadalupe around San Antonio; Collin, Denton, Ellis, Kaufman, and Rockwall in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex; and Williamson in Greater Austin.[207]
In DFW and Austin specifically, Republican strength had declined somewhat in these metros, with Abbott carrying Collin, Denton, Tarrant, and Williamson by 10.07%, 12.81%, 4.11%, and 0.62% respectively, down from his margins of 19.48%, 20.60%, 10.64%, and 10.71% from 2018. Excluding the largest metro areas, Abbott improved on his 2018 margins.
O'Rourke, despite his loss, did best in most of Texas's urban centers. He carried Travis, home to the state capital Austin (72.6%-25.9%), his best performance in the state; El Paso, his home county, 63.4%-35%; Dallas (62.8%-35.9%); Bexar, home to San Antonio (57.5%-41.1%); and Harris, home to Houston (54%-44.5%). He also carried Hays, a rapidly growing county south of Austin which contains San Marcos and Texas State University along with fast-growing cities of Kyle, and Buda by 54.5%-43.7%. Despite improving on 2018 nominee Lupe Valdez's margins in these counties, he did worse in all of them compared to his Senate campaign in 2018, and, excluding Travis and Hays, worse than Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential race. The only county O'Rourke flipped was suburban Fort Bend outside Houston, which voted for Abbott by 0.2% in 2018, but voted for O'Rourke by 4.68% in this election.
Outside the Texas Triangle and Trans Pecos, the only other area O'Rourke won was heavily Hispanic South Texas along the U.S. border with Mexico. His performance was worse than Valdez's and his own from 2018, which continued the trend of rural Hispanic voters away from the Democrats towards Republicans, but he did outperform Biden from 2020. Counties that voted for Biden by single digits like Duval (2.61%), Starr (5%), and Maverick (9.45%); voted for O'Rourke 11.02%, 17.85%, and 17.68% respectively. Despite this improvement from the 2020 presidential race, Abbott flipped two heavily Hispanic counties, Zapata and Culberson (in the Trans Pecos).
Exit polls according to NBC News showed Abbott winning male (58%-41%) and female voters (51%-48%), whites (66%-33%), and other races (67%-31%), voters over 45 (60%-39%), college graduates (52%-47%) and non-college graduates (56%-43%), and voters who denied the results of the 2020 presidential election (94%-5%). O'Rourke won black voters (84%-15%), Latinos (57%-40%), Asians (52%-48%), voters between 18 and 44 (54%-44%), Independents (49%-47%) and moderates (60%-38%).[208][209][210]
Fox News Voter Analysis exit polls showed Abbott winning male (59%-39%) and female voters (51%-48%); whites (68%-30%) and other races and ethnicities (53%-42%); voters over 45 (61%-37%); college graduates (54%-44%), non-college graduates (56%-43%); white men (70%-28%); white women (67%-32%). O'Rourke won African Americans (81%-18%), Latinos (56%-42%); African American men (76%-24%); African American women (85%-13%) Latino men (55%-45%) and Latina women (61%-37%).[211]
Voter demographics
Voter demographic data was collected by CNN. The voter survey is based on exit polls.[212] There were 4,327 total respondents.
| Demographic subgroup | Abbott | O'Rourke | % of total vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ideology | |||
| Liberals | 10 | 89 | 22 |
| Moderates | 38 | 60 | 36 |
| Conservatives | 91 | 9 | 42 |
| Party | |||
| Democrats | 3 | 97 | 30 |
| Republicans | 95 | 5 | 41 |
| Independents | 47 | 49 | 29 |
| Age | |||
| 18–24 years old | 31 | 67 | 9 |
| 25–29 years old | 39 | 61 | 6 |
| 30–39 years old | 47 | 50 | 15 |
| 40–49 years old | 53 | 45 | 16 |
| 50–64 years old | 61 | 38 | 27 |
| 65 and older | 62 | 37 | 27 |
| Gender | |||
| Men | 58 | 41 | 49 |
| Women | 51 | 48 | 51 |
| Marital status | |||
| Married | 63 | 36 | 63 |
| Unmarried | 45 | 54 | 37 |
| Gender by marital status | |||
| Married men | 64 | 35 | 33 |
| Married women | 61 | 38 | 29 |
| Unmarried men | 49 | 49 | 17 |
| Unmarried women | 42 | 58 | 21 |
| Race/ethnicity | |||
| White | 66 | 33 | 62 |
| Black | 15 | 84 | 12 |
| Latino | 40 | 57 | 21 |
| Asian | 48 | 52 | 3 |
| Other | 67 | 31 | 2 |
| Gender by race | |||
| White men | 69 | 30 | 30 |
| White women | 64 | 36 | 32 |
| Black men | 22 | 78 | 6 |
| Black women | 9 | 90 | 6 |
| Latino men | 45 | 53 | 10 |
| Latina women | 36 | 62 | 11 |
| Other racial/ethnic groups | 57 | 42 | 5 |
| Education | |||
| Never attended college | 60 | 40 | 12 |
| Some college education | 53 | 45 | 28 |
| Associate degree | 57 | 41 | 15 |
| Bachelor's degree | 54 | 44 | 26 |
| Advanced degree | 49 | 50 | 18 |
| Education by race | |||
| White college graduates | 60 | 39 | 31 |
| White no college degree | 72 | 27 | 31 |
| Non-white college graduates | 34 | 65 | 14 |
| Non-white no college degree | 35 | 63 | 25 |
| Education by gender/race | |||
| White women with college degrees | 57 | 42 | 15 |
| White women without college degrees | 70 | 29 | 17 |
| White men with college degrees | 63 | 36 | 16 |
| White men without college degrees | 75 | 24 | 14 |
| Non-white | 35 | 64 | 39 |
| Issue regarded as most important | |||
| Crime | 58 | 36 | 11 |
| Inflation | 76 | 22 | 28 |
| Immigration | 88 | 12 | 15 |
| Gun policy | 32 | 67 | 12 |
| Abortion | 19 | 80 | 27 |
| Abortion should be | |||
| Legal | 23 | 75 | 54 |
| Illegal | 92 | 7 | 43 |
| First-time midterm election voter | |||
| Yes | 43 | 57 | 14 |
| No | 55 | 44 | 86 |
| 2020 presidential vote | |||
| Trump | 97 | 2 | 50 |
| Biden | 4 | 96 | 41 |
| Other | N/A | N/A | 3 |
| Did not vote | N/A | N/A | 5 |
| Biden legitimately won in 2020 | |||
| Yes | 25 | 74 | 54 |
| No | 94 | 5 | 42 |
| Area type | |||
| Urban | 49 | 50 | 42 |
| Suburban | 56 | 43 | 47 |
| Rural | 66 | 32 | 11 |
See also
Notes
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Harrison with 3%; Belew and Horn with 1%
- Harrison with 3%; Belew and Horn with 0%
- Horn with 2%; Belew and Harrison with 1%
- Someone else with 2%, Horn with 1%
- Belew, Harrison, and Horn with 1%
- Horn with 2%; Belew and Harrison with 1%
- Harrison and Horn with 1%; Belew with 0%
- Belew, Harrison, and Horn with 1%
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- "Someone else" with 4%; Tippetts (L) with 2%; Barrios (G) with 1%
- "Someone else" with 2%; Tippetts (L) with 2%; Barrios (G) with 1%
- Tippetts (L) with 1%; Barrios (G) with <1%
- Tippetts (L) with 2%; Barrios (G) with 1%
- "Another candidate" with 1%; "Not going to vote" with 1%
- "Someone else" with 3%
- "Someone else" with 2%; Tippetts and Barrios with 1%
- "Someone else" with 3%
- "Another party's candidate" with 1%
- "Another party's candidate" with 1%
- "Someone else" with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
- Tippetts (L) with 2%; "Someone else" with 2%
- Tippetts with 9%; Barrios with 3%
- "Another candidate" with 1%; "Not going to vote" with 1%
- Barrios and Tippetts with 1%
- "Someone else" with 6%; Barrios and Tippets with 3%
- "Another candidate" with 2%
- Tippetts with 2% and Barrios with 2%
- Tippetts with 1% and Barrios with 1%
- "Someone else" with 7%; Barrios and Tippetts with 3%
- "Someone else" with 4%; Tippetts with 3%; Barrios with 2%
- Tippetts with 2%; Barrios with 0%
- "Someone else" with 3%; Tippetts with 2%; Barrios with 1%
- "Someone else" with 8%; Barrios and Tippetts with 3%
- Tippetts with 2%, Barrios with 1%
- Subsample of likely general election voters from a survey of 1,400 registered voters (overall margin of error ± 2.2% including design effect)
- Tippetts with 2%; Barrios with 1%
- Behrman/Jewell with 2%, Barrios with 1%
- Behrman/Jewell and Barrios with 1%
Partisan clients
- Poll conducted for West's campaign
- Poll conducted for Abbott's campaign
- Poll conducted for the Defend Texas Liberty PAC.
- Poll conducted for the Democratic Policy Institute, a non-profit organization advocating for progressive causes.
- Poll conducted for Abbott's campaign
- Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund