2020 United States Senate election in Texas
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The 2020 United States Senate election in Texas was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member to the United States Senate to represent the State of Texas, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn won a fourth term against Democratic nominee MJ Hegar by 9.6%.
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November 3, 2020
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| Turnout | 65.73%[1]  32.6% | ||||||||||||||||
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   Cornyn: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Hegar: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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Prior to the election, most news organizations projected this race as "Lean Republican", and was not expected to be as competitive as the contest for Texas's other Senate seat two years prior, when Republican incumbent Ted Cruz defeated Democrat Beto O'Rourke by a 2.6% margin. Nonetheless, John Cornyn won in what was his worst performance out of his four elections for the U.S. Senate, while MJ Hegar's 43.9% marked the highest vote share of any of Cornyn's Democratic challengers. Despite this being Cornyn's worst performance percentage-wise, he more than doubled his 2014 vote count and received what was then the most raw votes for a Republican U.S. Senate candidate in the history of the United States; this record was later surpassed by Steve Garvey in California in 2024.
Cornyn outperformed President Donald Trump in the state by about 4%, and was able to carry two counties won by Joe Biden (Tarrant and Williamson). While Cornyn did better than Trump in the Texas Triangle, contributing to his over performance, Hegar slightly outperformed Biden in the heavily Hispanic Rio Grande Valley, and was able to carry one Trump county (Zapata), though Hegar herself vastly underperformed previous Democratic margins in the region.
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- John Cornyn, incumbent U.S. senator[2]
Eliminated in the primary
- Virgil Bierschwale, U.S. Navy veteran, software developer, realtor[3]
- John Anthony Castro, tax consultant, author, businessman, entrepreneur[4][5][6][7][8]
- Dwayne Stovall, bridge construction contractor, businessman[9]
- Mark Yancey, businessman, Attacca International Executive, former owner of the Dallas Wings basketball team[10][11]
Declined
- Pat Fallon, state senator[12]
- Dan Patrick, Lieutenant Governor of Texas[13] (endorsed John Cornyn)[14]
- Allen West, former U.S. representative for Florida's 22nd congressional district[15] (running for state party chair)[16]
Endorsements
John Cornyn
U.S. senators
Statewide officials
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Virgil Bierschwale |
John Anthony Castro |
John Cornyn |
Dwayne Stovall |
Mark Yancey |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas News[17] | January 21–30, 2020 | 445 (LV) | ± 4.65% | <1% | 5% | 62% | 3% | 1% | 30% |
| Data for Progress[18][A] | January 16–21, 2020 | 687 (LV) | – | 1% | 0% | 75% | 2% | 1% | 22% |
Results
Cornyn
- Cornyn—80–90%
- Cornyn—70–80%
- Cornyn—60–70%
- Cornyn—50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | John Cornyn (incumbent) | 1,470,669 | 76.04% | |
| Republican | Dwayne Stovall | 231,104 | 11.95% | |
| Republican | Mark Yancey | 124,864 | 6.46% | |
| Republican | John Anthony Castro | 86,916 | 4.49% | |
| Republican | Virgil Bierschwale | 20,494 | 1.06% | |
| Total votes | 1,934,047 | 100.0% | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- MJ Hegar, retired United States Air Force Major, businesswoman, author, teacher, and Democratic Party nominee for Texas's 31st congressional district in 2018[20]
Eliminated in the runoff
- Royce West, state senator, former President Pro Tempore of the Texas Senate, attorney[21][22]
Eliminated in the primary
- Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez, labor organizer and author[23]
- Annie "Mamá" Garcia, attorney, small-business owner, and non-profit founder[24]
- Amanda Edwards, Houston City Councillor[25]
- Chris Bell, former U.S. representative for Texas's 25th congressional district, nominee for Governor of Texas in 2006 and candidate for Mayor of Houston in 2015[26]
- Sema Hernandez, organizer for the Poor People's Campaign and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2018[27]
- Michael Cooper, pastor and candidate for Lieutenant Governor of Texas in 2018[28]
- Victor Hugo Harris, U.S. Army Reserve Colonel[29][30]
- Adrian Ocegueda, financial analyst and candidate for Governor of Texas in 2018[20]
- Jack Daniel Foster Jr., educator[31]
- D. R. Hunter, retiree[32]
Withdrawn
Declined
- Joaquín Castro, incumbent U.S. representative for Texas's 20th congressional district[37]
- Julián Castro, former United States Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, former mayor of San Antonio and former 2020 presidential candidate[38]
- Beto O'Rourke, former U.S. representative for Texas's 16th congressional district, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2018 and former 2020 presidential candidate[39]
Endorsements
MJ Hegar
Federal officials
- Tammy Duckworth, U.S. senator from Illinois and former U.S. Representative (IL-08) (2013–2017) and U.S. Assistant Secretary of Veterans Affairs (2009–2011)[40]
- Veronica Escobar, U.S. representative from (Texas's 16th congressional district)[41]
- Elizabeth Warren, U.S. senator from Massachusetts and 2020 Democratic presidential candidate[42]
Newspapers
Organizations
Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez (eliminated)
Federal officials
- Joaquin Castro, U.S. representative (TX-20)[48]
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, U.S. representative (NY-14)[49]
Labor unions
- Communications Workers of America District 6[50]
Newspapers
Organizations
Individuals
- Alec Baldwin, actor[54]
Royce West (eliminated)
Federal officials
- Chris Bell, Democratic candidate in the 2020 U.S. Senate election in Texas and former U.S. representative (TX-25) (2003–2005)[41]
- Eddie Bernice Johnson, U.S. representative (TX-30)[55]
- Ron Kirk, former U.S. Trade Representative (2009–2013), Mayor of Dallas (1995–2002), and Texas Secretary of State (1994–1995)[56]
- Carol Moseley Braun, former U.S. Ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa (1999–2001) and U.S. Senator (IL) (1993–1999)[57]
- Maxine Waters, U.S. representative (CA-43)[58]
State officials
- Rhetta Bowers, state representative[56]
- Sheryl Cole, state representative[56]
- Nicole Collier, state representative[56]
- Gina Hinojosa, state representative[56]
- Celia Israel, state representative[56]
- Jarvis Johnson, state representative[56]
- Nathan Johnson, state senator[56]
- Jose Menendez, state senator[56]
- Evelina Ortega, state representative[56]
- Morris Overstreet, former Texas Court of Criminal Appeals judge (1991–1999)[56]
- Toni Rose, state representative[56]
- Shawn Thierry, state representative[56]
- John Turner, state representative[56]
- Armando Walle, state representative[56]
Local officials
- Amanda Edwards, Democratic candidate in the 2020 U.S. Senate election in Texas and former Houston City Council member (2016–2020)[59]
- Sylvester Turner, Mayor of Houston and former state representative (1989–2016)[60]
Organizations
- Working Families Party (originally endorsed Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez) [61]
- American Federation of Teachers Texas Chapter[62]
- Communications Workers of America (originally endorsed Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez)[41]
- Congressional Black Caucus (CBC) PAC[41]
- Democracy for America[56]
Newspapers
- Austin Chronicle (originally endorsed Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez)[63]
- Dallas Morning News (co-endorsed with Amanda Edwards)[64][65]
- Fort Worth Star-Telegram[66][67]
- Houston Chronicle[68][69][70][71]
Individuals
- Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez, Democratic candidate in the 2020 U.S. Senate election in Texas[72]
Amanda Edwards (eliminated)
Newspapers
- Beaumont Enterprise[73]
- Dallas Morning News (co-endorsed with Royce West)[64]
- San Antonio Express-News[74]
Organizations
- Stonewall Democrats of Dallas[75]
Individuals
- Tina Knowles-Lawson, businesswoman and fashion designer[76]
First round
Debates
| Host network |
Date | Link(s) | Participants | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MJ Hegar |
Royce West |
Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez |
Annie Garcia |
Amanda Edwards | Chris Bell | Sema Hernandez |
Michael Cooper |
Victor Hugo Harris |
Adrian Ocegueda |
Jack Daniel Foster Jr. |
D. R. Hunter | |||
| KHOU-11 | February 18, 2020 | [77] | Present | Present | Present | Present | Present | Present | Present | Present | Present | Present | Present | Absent |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Colin Allred |
Chris Bell |
Joaquín Castro |
Wendy Davis |
Amanda Edwards |
Annie Garcia |
MJ Hegar |
Sema Hernandez |
Beto O'Rourke |
Cristina Ramirez |
Royce West |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBC News/Marist[78] | February 23–27, 2020 | 556 (LV) | ± 5.3% | – | 5% | – | – | 7% | – | 16% | 5% | – | 9% | 8% | 5%[b] | 34% |
| YouGov/University of Texas/Texas Tribune[79] | January 31 – February 9, 2020 | 575 (LV)[c] | ± 4.09% | – | 7% | – | – | 6% | 5% | 22% | 5% | – | 9% | 6% | 40%[d] | – |
| University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas News[80] | January 21–30, 2020 | 414 (LV) | ± 4.8% | – | 5% | – | – | 4% | 6% | 9% | 4% | – | 4% | 6% | 12%[e] | 52% |
| Data for Progress[81][B] | January 16–21, 2020 | 684 (LV) | ± 6.5% | – | 8% | – | – | 3% | 4% | 18% | 3% | – | 13% | 12% | 4%[f] | 34%[g] |
| Texas Lyceum[82] | January 10–19, 2020 | 401 (LV) | ± 4.89% | – | 5% | – | – | 6% | 4% | 11% | 5% | – | 7% | 8% | 35%[h] | 19% |
| Filing deadline, by which Allred had not declared his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
| Annie Garcia announces her candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
| O'Rourke announces he will not run after end of presidential campaign[83] | ||||||||||||||||
| Beacon Research (D)[84] | November 9–21, 2019 | 408 (LV) | – | – | 4% | – | – | – | – | 6% | 6% | 58% | – | 13% | – | – |
| University of Texas at Tyler[85] | November 5–14, 2019 | 427 (RV) | ± 4.7% | – | 7% | – | – | 8% | – | 9% | – | – | 9% | 8% | 7% | 52% |
| University of Texas/Texas Tribune[86] | October 18–29, 2019 | 541 (RV) | ± 4.21% | – | 3% | – | – | 0% | – | 12% | 6% | – | 4% | 5% | 13%[i] | 57% |
| University of Texas/Texas Tribune[86] | August 29 – September 8, 2019 | 550 (RV) | ± 4.17% | – | 2% | – | – | 2% | – | 11% | 3% | – | 3% | 5% | 2%[j] | 66% |
| Ragnar Research[87] | September 3–5, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.9% | – | 9% | – | – | 10% | – | 12% | – | – | 10% | 10% | – | 49% |
| Ramirez announces her candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
| Emerson College/Dallas Morning News[88] | August 1–3, 2019 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | – | 6.6% | – | – | – | 5.2% | 9.9% | – | – | – | 7.9% | 19.1%[k] | 51.1% |
| West announces his candidacy and Davis announces a 2020 House bid, confirming she will not run for US Senate | ||||||||||||||||
| Edwards announces her candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
| Bell announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
| Joaquín Castro announces he will not run | ||||||||||||||||
| Hegar announces her candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
| Change Research[89] | April 18–22, 2019 | 1,578 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 6%[l] | – | 56% | – | 1% | – | 4% | – | – | – | 3% | 31%[m] | – |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[90][C] | March 5–7, 2019 | 608 (LV) | ± 4.0% | – | – | 42% | 19% | – | – | 4% | 2% | – | – | – | 4%[n] | 29% |
Results
Hegar
- Hegar—60–70%
- Hegar—50–60%
- Hegar—40–50%
- Hegar—30–40%
- Hegar—20–30%
- Hegar—<20%
Tie
- Tie
West
- West—<20%
- West—20–30%
- West—30–40%
- West—40–50%
Ramirez
- Ramirez—<20%
- Ramirez—20–30%
- Ramirez—30–40%
- Ramirez—40–50%
- Ramirez—50–60%
Garcia
- Garcia—<20%
- Garcia—20–30%
- Garcia—30–40%
- Garcia—100%
Edwards
- Edwards—<20%
- Edwards—20–30%
- Edwards—30–40%
Bell
- Bell—<20%
- Bell—20–30%
- Bell—30–40%
- Bell—40–50%
Hernandez
- Hernandez—<20%
- Hernandez—20–30%
- Hernandez—30–40%
Cooper
- Cooper—<20%
- Cooper—20–30%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | MJ Hegar | 417,160 | 22.31% | |
| Democratic | Royce West | 274,074 | 14.66% | |
| Democratic | Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez | 246,659 | 13.19% | |
| Democratic | Annie "Mamá" Garcia | 191,900 | 10.27% | |
| Democratic | Amanda Edwards | 189,624 | 10.14% | |
| Democratic | Chris Bell | 159,751 | 8.55% | |
| Democratic | Sema Hernandez | 137,892 | 7.38% | |
| Democratic | Michael Cooper | 92,463 | 4.95% | |
| Democratic | Victor Hugo Harris | 59,710 | 3.19% | |
| Democratic | Adrian Ocegueda | 41,566 | 2.22% | |
| Democratic | Jack Daniel Foster Jr. | 31,718 | 1.70% | |
| Democratic | D. R. Hunter | 26,902 | 1.44% | |
| Total votes | 1,869,419 | 100.0% | ||
Runoff
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
MJ Hegar |
Royce West |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TargetPoint[91][D] | July 8, 2020 | 830 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 39% | 35% | – | 26% |
| Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler[92] | June 29 – July 7, 2020 | 829 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 35% | 22% | 11% | 32% |
| Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler[93] | April 18–27, 2020 | 447 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 32% | 16% | 7% | 44% |
| Data for Progress[81][B] | January 16–21, 2020 | 684 (LV) | ± 6.5% | 48% | 19% | – | 33% |
| Ragnar Research[94] | September 3–5, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 26% | 24% | – | 50% |
Debates
Hypothetical polling | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
with MJ Hegar and Chris Bell
with MJ Hegar and Amanda Edwards
with MJ Hegar and Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez
|
Results
Hegar
- Hegar—>90%
- Hegar—80–90%
- Hegar—70–80%
- Hegar—60–70%
- Hegar—50–60%
Tie
- Tie
West
- West—50–60%
- West—60–70%
- West—70–80%
- West—>90%
No vote
- No vote
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | MJ Hegar | 502,516 | 52.24% | |
| Democratic | Royce West | 459,457 | 47.76% | |
| Total votes | 961,973 | 100.0% | ||
Other candidates
Libertarian Party
Candidates
Nominee
- Kerry McKennon, Libertarian nominee for Lieutenant Governor of Texas in 2018[98][99]
Withdrawn
- Wes Benedict, former national executive director of the Libertarian Party[100]
- Rhett Rosenquest Smith, Libertarian nominee for the Precinct 2 Bexar County Justice of the Peace in 2020 and Libertarian nominee for Texas's 11th congressional district in 2018[101]
Green Party
Nominee
People Over Politics Party
Withdrawn
Human Rights Party
Withdrawn
Independents
Declared
Withdrawn
General election
Debate
| Host | Date & time | Link(s) | Participants | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Cornyn (R) | MJ Hegar (D) | |||
| Texas State History Museum | October 9, 2020 6:55pm MDT |
[106] | Present | Present |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Daily Kos[107] | Lean R | October 30, 2020 |
| The Cook Political Report[108] | Lean R | October 29, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[109] | Lean R | October 28, 2020 |
| 538[110] | Likely R | November 2, 2020 |
| RCP[111] | Lean R | October 23, 2020 |
| DDHQ[112] | Likely R | November 3, 2020 |
| Politico[113] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[114] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
| Economist[115] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
Post-primary endorsements
John Cornyn (R)
U.S. presidents
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021) [116]
U.S. representatives
- Brian Babin, U.S. representative from TX-36 (2015–present) [116]
State & Local Officials
- Richard Cortez, County Judge of Hidalgo County, Texas (2019–present), former mayor of McAllen, Texas (2005–2013) [117]
- Jim Darling, Mayor of McAllen, Texas (2013–present) [117]
- Pete Saenz, Mayor of Laredo, Texas (2014–present) [117]
Newspapers
Organizations
MJ Hegar (D)
U.S. presidents
- Barack Obama, 44th president of the United States (2009–2017), U.S. senator from Illinois (2005–2008)[119]
Federal officials
- Colin Allred, U.S. representative (TX-32)[120]
- Joaquin Castro, U.S. representative (TX-20)[120]
- Kirsten Gillibrand, U.S. senator (NY), former 2020 Democratic presidential candidate, and former U.S. Representative (NY-20) (2007–2009)[121]
- Deb Haaland, U.S. representative (NM-01)[120]
State officials
- Cesar Blanco, state representative[120]
- John Bucy III, state representative[120]
- Art Fierro, state representative[120]
- Mary González, state representative[120]
- Vikki Goodwin, state representative[120]
- Armando Martinez, state representative[120]
- Ina Minjarez, state representative[120]
- Joe Moody, Speaker Pro Tempore[120]
- Christina Morales, state representative[120]
- James Talarico, state representative[120]
Local officials
- Steve Adler, Mayor of Austin, TX (2016–present)[120]
- Annise Parker, former mayor of Houston (2010–2016)[120]
- Letitia Plummer, Houston City Council member (2020–present)[120]
- Justin Rodriguez, Bexar County commissioner, former state representative[120]
Newspapers
Organizations
- Brady PAC[125]
- High School Democrats of America[126]
- Houston GLBT Political Caucus[127]
- Human Rights Campaign[128]
- J Street PAC[129]
- Jewish Democratic Council of America[130]
- League of Conservation Voters Action Fund[131]
- Sierra Club[132]
- VoteVets.org[133]
Unions
Polling
Graphical summary
View source data.
Aggregate polls
| John Cornyn vs. MJ Hegar | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | John Cornyn | MJ Hegar | Other/Undecided[o] | Margin |
| 270 To Win[137] | November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 48.6% | 43.4% | 8.0% | Cornyn +5.2 |
| Real Clear Politics[138] | October 31, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 49.0% | 42.5% | 8.5% | Cornyn +6.5 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
John Cornyn (R) |
MJ Hegar (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swayable[139] | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 1,042 (LV) | ± 4% | 57% | 44% | – | – |
| Data For Progress[140] | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 926 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 50% | 47% | 3%[p] | – |
| Emerson College[141] | October 29–31, 2020 | 763 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 51%[l] | 47% | 2%[q] | – |
| Morning Consult[142] | October 22–31, 2020 | 3,267 (LV) | ± 2% | 47% | 43% | – | – |
| Gravis Marketing[143] | October 27–28, 2020 | 670 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 49% | 43% | – | 8% |
| RMG Research/PoliticalIQ[144] | October 27–28, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48%[r] | 42% | 2% | 8% |
| 46%[s] | 44% | 2% | 8% | ||||
| 49%[t] | 41% | 2% | 8% | ||||
| Swayable[145] | October 23–26, 2020 | 492 (LV) | ± 6% | 52% | 48% | – | – |
| YouGov/UMass Lowell[146] | October 20–26, 2020 | 873 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 49% | 44% | 2%[u] | 5% |
| Data for Progress (D)[147] | October 22–25, 2020 | 1,018 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 46% | 2%[v] | 3% |
| Siena College/NYT Upshot[148] | October 20–25, 2020 | 802 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 38% | 6%[w] | 8%[x] |
| Univision/University of Houston/Latino Decisions/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research[149] |
October 17–25, 2020 | 758 (RV) | ± 3.56% | 45% | 40% | 7%[y] | 8% |
| Citizen Data[150] | October 17–20, 2020 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3% | 41% | 41% | 4% | 15% |
| YouGov/University of Houston[151] | October 13–20, 2020 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 42% | 4%[z] | 6% |
| University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas Morning News[152] | October 13–20, 2020 | 925 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 42% | 34% | 5%[aa] | 18% |
| Morning Consult[142] | October 11–20, 2020 | 3,347 (LV) | ± 1.7% | 46% | 41% | – | – |
| Cygnal[153] | October 18–19, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 49% | 41% | 4%[z] | 7% |
| Quinnipiac University[154] | October 16–19, 2020 | 1,145 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 49% | 43% | 1%[ab] | 7% |
| Data for Progress (D)[155] | October 15–18, 2020 | 933 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 44%[l] | 41% | 3%[ac] | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling[156] | October 14–15, 2020 | 712 (V) | – | 49% | 46% | – | 5% |
| Morning Consult[157] | October 2–11, 2020 | 3,455 (LV) | ± 1.7% | 47%[ad] | 38% | – | 12% |
| Morning Consult[158] | September 29 – October 8, 2020 | ~2,700 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 47%[ae] | 38% | – | – |
| Morning Consult[158] | September 21–30, 2020 | ~2,700 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 46% | 39% | – | – |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos[159] | October 3–6, 2020 | 895 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 47% | 46% | 3%[af] | 4% |
| Data For Progress (D)[160] | September 30 – October 5, 2020 | 1,949 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 45% | 42% | 3%[ag] | 11% |
| YouGov/University of Texas/Texas Tribune[161] | September 25 – October 4, 2020 | 908 (LV) | ± 3.25% | 50% | 42% | 5%[ah] | – |
| YouGov/UMass Lowell[162] | September 18–25, 2020 | 882 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 50% | 40% | 1%[ai] | 9% |
| Siena College/NYT Upshot[163] | September 16–22, 2020 | 653 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 43% | 37% | 6%[aj] | 14%[x] |
| Data For Progress[164][E] | September 15–22, 2020 | 726 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 40% | 38% | – | 22% |
| Quinnipiac University[165] | September 17–21, 2020 | 1,078 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 42% | – | 7% |
| Morning Consult[166] | September 11–20, 2020 | 2,616 (LV) | ± (2% – 7%) | 45%[ad] | 39% | – | – |
| YouGov/CBS[167] | September 15–18, 2020 | 1,129 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 41% | 3%[ak] | 10% |
| Morning Consult[168] | September 8–17, 2020 | 2,555 (LV)[c] | ± (2% – 4%) | 45%[ad] | 38% | – | – |
| Morning Consult[158] | September 2–11, 2020 | ~2,700 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 45% | 38% | – | – |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[169][F] | September 1–2, 2020 | 743 (V) | – | 44% | 40% | – | 15% |
| University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas Morning News[170] | August 28 – September 2, 2020 | 897 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 39% | 28% | 5%[al] | 28% |
| 1,141 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 34% | 24% | 6%[am] | 36% | ||
| Morning Consult[158] | August 23 – September 1, 2020 | ~2,700 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 46% | 37% | – | – |
| Tyson Group[171][G] | August 20–25, 2020 | 906 (LV) | ± 3% | 44% | 42% | – | 11% |
| Data for Progress (D)[172][H] | August 20–25, 2020 | 2,295 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 46% | 40% | – | 15% |
| Morning Consult[158] | August 13–22, 2020 | ~2,700 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 44% | 39% | – | – |
| YouGov/Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation/Rice University's Baker Institute[173] | August 4–13, 2020 | 892 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 37% | 5%[an] | 8% |
| Morning Consult[158] | August 3–12, 2020 | ~2,700 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 44% | 38% | – | – |
| Morning Consult[174] | July 24 – August 2, 2020 | 2,576 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 44%[ad] | 38% | 4%[ao] | 14% |
| Morning Consult[158] | July 23 – August 1, 2020 | ~2,700 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 44% | 38% | – | – |
| Global Strategy Group (D)[175][I] | July 25–29, 2020 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 44% | 43% | – | 13% |
| Quinnipiac University[176] | July 16–20, 2020 | 880 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 47% | 38% | 3%[ap] | 13% |
| Morning Consult[158] | July 13–22, 2020 | ~2,700 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 40% | 40% | – | – |
| Spry Strategies (R)[177][J] | July 16–20, 2020 | 750 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 37% | 14%[aq] | 2% |
| YouGov/CBS[178] | July 7–10, 2020 | 1,179 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 44% | 36% | 5%[ar] | 15% |
| Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler[92] | June 29 – July 7, 2020 | 1,677 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 42% | 29% | 5% | 22% |
| Public Policy Polling[179] | June 24–25, 2020 | 729 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 42% | 35% | – | 23% |
| FOX News[180] | June 20–23, 2020 | 1,001 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 36% | 6%[as] | 12% |
| Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler[93] | April 18–27, 2020 | 1,183 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 37% | 24% | 6% | 34% |
| NBC News/Marist[78] | February 23–27, 2020 | 2,409 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 49% | 41% | 1% | 10% |
| Beacon Research (D)[84] | November 9–21, 2019 | 601 (RV) | – | 44% | 30% | – | 26% |
| Emerson College[181] | April 25–28, 2019 | 799 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 29% | 12% | 16%[at] | 44% |
Hypothetical polling
with Royce West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
John Cornyn (R) |
Royce West (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBS News/YouGov[182] | July 7–10, 2020 | 1,182 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 43% | 37% | 4%[au] | 15% |
| Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler[92] | June 29 – July 7, 2020 | 1,677 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 43% | 28% | 6% | 23% |
| FOX News[180] | June 20–23, 2020 | 1,001 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 37% | 6%[as] | 11% |
| Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler[93] | April 18–27, 2020 | 1,183 (RV) | ± 2.85% | 35% | 24% | 7% | 34% |
| Beacon Research (D)[84] | November 9–21, 2019 | 601 (RV) | – | 45% | 33% | – | 22% |
with Chris Bell
with Sema Hernandez
with Beto O'Rourke
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
John Cornyn (R) |
Beto O'Rourke (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beacon Research (D)[84] | November 9–21, 2019 | 601 (RV) | – | 46% | 42% | – | 12% |
| Quinnipiac University[183] | February 20–25, 2019 | 1,222 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 46% | 46% | 1% | 6% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[184][C] | February 13–14, 2019 | 743 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 45% | – | 8% |
| Atlantic Media & Research (R)[185][K] | January 5–11, 2019 | 504 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 37% | – | – |
with generic Democrat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
John Cornyn (R) |
Generic Democrat (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Univision/UH[186] | February 21–26, 2020 | 1,004 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 43% | 41% | – | 16% |
| Data for Progress[18] | January 16–21, 2020 | 1,486 (LV) | – | 50% | 42% | 2%[av] | 7% |
| Beacon Research (D)[84] | November 9–21, 2019 | 601 (RV) | – | 46% | 44% | – | 10% |
| Univision/UH[187] | August 1 – September 6, 2019 | 1,004 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 41% | 40% | – | 19% |
with generic Opponent
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
John Cornyn (R) |
Generic Opponent |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac[188] | September 4–9, 2019 | 1,410 (RV) | ± 3.1% | – | 23% | 35%[aw] | 43%[ax] |
with generic Republican and generic Democrat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Generic Republican (R) |
Generic Democrat (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cygnal[153] | October 18–19, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 50% | 43% | 7% |
| Data For Progress[164][L] | September 15–22, 2020 | 726 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 41% | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling[189] | June 18–19, 2020 | 907 (V) | ± 3% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | John Cornyn (incumbent) | 5,962,983 | 53.51% | −8.05% | |
| Democratic | MJ Hegar | 4,888,764 | 43.87% | +9.51% | |
| Libertarian | Kerry McKennon | 209,722 | 1.88% | −1.00% | |
| Green | David Collins | 81,893 | 0.73% | −0.45% | |
| Independent | Ricardo Turullols-Bonilla (write-in) | 678 | 0.01% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 11,144,040 | 100.0% | |||
| Republican hold | |||||
By county
By county | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
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By congressional district
Cornyn won 24 out of 36 congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.[191]
See also
Notes
Partisan clients
- Data for Progress had endorsed the Elizabeth Warren 2020 presidential campaign prior to the sampling period
- Data for Progress has endorsed the Elizabeth Warren 2020 presidential campaign
- Poll sponsored by Democracy Toolbox
- Poll conducted for John Cornyn.
- Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund.
- Giffords endorsed Hegar to this poll's sampling period
- Poll sponsored for The Consumer Energy Alliance which is a pro-Keystone XL lobbying group.
- Poll conducted for the Texas Youth Power Alliance.
- Poll conducted for Latino Decisions.
- This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
- Poll sponsored by Courageous Conservatives PAC
- Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund.
Additional candidates and voter samples
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Michael Cooper with 4%; "other" with 1%
- Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- The five remaining candidates or "someone else" with 34%; refused with 6%
- Michael Cooper, Jack Daniel Foster Jr. and Victor Hugo Harris with 3%; D. R. Hunter with 2%; Adrian Ocegueda with 1%
- Michael Cooper with 2%; Victor Hugo Harris and Adrian Ocegueda with 1%; Jack Daniel Foster Jr., D. R. Hunter, and "not voting" with 0%
- Leaning towards no one candidate, but not leaning towards not voting
- Michael Cooper and Victor Hugo Harris with 5%; Adrian Ocegueda with 2%; Jack Daniel Foster Jr. and D. R. Hunter with 0%; other with 6%; none of the above with 17%
- Michael Cooper with 4%; Jack Daniel Foster Jr. with 2%; Adrian Ocegueda with 1%; "someone else" with 6%
- Michael Cooper with 2%
- "Someone else" with 19.1%
- With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- Veronica Escobar with 5%; Sylvia Garcia, Clay Jenkins, Sri Preston Kulkarni and Kim Olson with 3%; Rafael Anchia and Lizzie Pannell Fletcher with 1%; Mark Strama with 0%; would not vote with 12%
- Michael Cooper with 4%
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Turullols-Bonilla (I) with 2%; McKennon (L) with 1%; "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
- "Someone else" with 2%
- Standard VI response
- Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
- Results generated with high Republican turnout model
- Did not vote with 2%; "Another candidate" with 0%
- McKennon (L) and Turullols-Bonilla (I) with 1%; "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
- McKennon (L) with 4%; "Someone else" and would not vote with 1%
- Includes "Refused"
- "Someone else" with 4%; would not vote with 3%
- McKennon (L) with 3%; Collins (G) with 1%
- McKennon (L) with 3%; Collins (G) with 2%
- "Someone else" with 1%
- McKennon (L) with 2%; Turullols-Bonilla (I) with 1%; "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
- Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- Overlapping sample with the previous and subsequent Morning Consult polls, but more information available regarding sampling period
- McKennon (L) with 2%; Collins (G) with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%
- McKennon (L) with 2%; Turullols-Bonilla (I) with 1%
- McKennon (L) with 3%; "Someone else" with 2%
- "Another candidate" with 1%
- McKennon (L) with 4%; would not vote with 2%; "someone else" with 0%
- "Someone else" with 3%
- McDermott (L) with 3%; Collins (G) with 2%
- Collins (G) and McDermott (L) with 3%
- McDermont (L) with 4%; Collins (G) with 1%
- "Someone else" with 4%
- "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 2%
- "Another candidate" with 14%
- "Someone else" with 4%; would not vote with 1%
- "Other" and would not vote with 3%
- "Someone else" with 16%
- "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
- Would not vote with 2%
- "Would definitely not vote for Cornyn" with 35%
- "Would consider voting for Cornyn" with 30%; "Don't know/no answer" with 13%