Post-election pendulum for the 1996 Australian federal election
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The Mackerras pendulum as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a Westminster style lower house legislature such as the Australian House of Representatives, which is composed of single-member electorates and which uses a preferential voting system such as a Condorcet method or instant-runoff voting.
The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament for the government, the opposition and the crossbenches according to the percentage point margin they are held by on a two party preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted.[1]
- ↑ Pauline Hanson had been disendorsed as the Liberal candidate and ran as an independent, but she remained a Liberal on the ballot paper
- ↑ Sakkal, Paul; Rooney, Kieran (14 November 2023). "Veteran Liberal Party MP Russell Broadbent quits party, moves to crossbench". The Sydney Morning Herald.
- 1 2 Newman, G; Kopras, A (4 November 1996). "Federal Elections 1996" (PDF). Background Paper 6 1996-97. Parliamentary Research Service. ISSN 1037-2938. Retrieved 2024-01-09.
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