Post-election pendulum for the 2022 Australian federal election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The Australian Labor Party won the 2022 federal election, winning 77 of 151 seats in the House of Representatives. The Coalition holds 58 seats, and crossbenchers hold the remaining 16.[1]

Classification of seats as marginal, fairly safe or safe is applied by the independent Australian Electoral Commission using the following definition: "Where a winning party receives less than 56% of the vote, the seat is classified as 'marginal', 56–60% is classified as 'fairly safe' and more than 60% is considered 'safe'."[2] Here, 'the vote' is defined as the vote after preferences, where the distribution of preferences has continued to the point where there are only 2 candidates left.

The Mackerras pendulum was devised by the Australian psephologist Malcolm Mackerras as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a Westminster style lower house legislature such as the Australian House of Representatives, which is composed of single-member electorates and which uses a preferential voting system such as a Condorcet method or instant-runoff voting.

The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament for the government, the opposition and the crossbenches according to the percentage point margin they are held by on a two party preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted.[3]


Government seats - 77
Marginal
Gilmore NSW Fiona Phillips ALP 0.17
Lyons Tas Brian Mitchell ALP 0.92
Lingiari NT Marion Scrymgour ALP 0.95
Bennelong NSW Jerome Laxale ALP 0.97
Higgins Vic Michelle Ananda-Rajah ALP 2.06
Robertson NSW Gordon Reid ALP 2.27
Tangney WA Sam Lim ALP 2.37
McEwen Vic Rob Mitchell ALP 3.24
Paterson NSW Meryl Swanson ALP 3.27
Boothby SA Louise Miller-Frost ALP 3.28
Hunter NSW Daniel Repacholi ALP 4.08
Parramatta NSW Andrew Charlton ALP 4.30
Blair Qld Shayne Neumann ALP 5.23
Reid NSW Sally Sitou ALP 5.24
Shortland NSW Pat Conroy ALP 5.25
Dobell NSW Emma McBride ALP 5.61
Werriwa NSW Anne Stanley ALP 5.89
Hasluck WA Tania Lawrence ALP 5.95
Fairly safe
Dunkley Vic Peta Murphy ALP 6.27
Chisholm Vic Carina Garland ALP 6.34
Bruce Vic Julian Hill ALP 6.58
Isaacs Vic Mark Dreyfus ALP 6.90
Holt Vic Cassandra Fernando ALP 7.12
Hawke Vic Sam Rae ALP 7.63
Corangamite Vic Libby Coker ALP 7.64
Richmond NSW Justine Elliot ALP 7.76
Macquarie NSW Susan Templeman ALP 7.73
Eden-Monaro NSW Kristy McBain ALP 8.09
Wills Vic Peter Khalil ALP vs. GRN 8.53
Cooper Vic Ged Kearney ALP vs. GRN 8.68
Macarthur NSW Mike Freelander ALP 8.69
Hindmarsh SA Mark Butler ALP 8.95
Pearce WA Tracey Roberts ALP 8.98
Swan WA Zaneta Mascarenhas ALP 8.99
Rankin Qld Jim Chalmers ALP 9.09
Moreton Qld Graham Perrett ALP 9.09
Solomon NT Luke Gosling ALP 9.37
McMahon NSW Chris Bowen ALP 9.49
Gorton Vic Brendan O'Connor ALP 9.97
Safe
Whitlam NSW Stephen Jones ALP 10.07
Lilley Qld Anika Wells ALP 10.54
Cowan WA Anne Aly ALP 10.79
Makin SA Tony Zappia ALP 10.80
Gellibrand Vic Tim Watts ALP 11.41
Greenway NSW Michelle Rowland ALP 11.54
Oxley Qld Milton Dick ALP 11.59
Adelaide SA Steve Georganas ALP 11.91
Bendigo Vic Lisa Chesters ALP 12.11
Canberra ACT Alicia Payne ALP vs. GRN 12.20
Macnamara Vic Josh Burns ALP 12.25
Jagajaga Vic Kate Thwaites ALP 12.34
Maribyrnong Vic Bill Shorten ALP 12.38
Calwell Vic Maria Vamvakinou ALP 12.39
Lalor Vic Joanne Ryan ALP 12.82
Spence SA Matt Burnell ALP 12.90
Bean ACT David Smith ALP 12.95
Ballarat Vic Catherine King ALP 12.97
Corio Vic Richard Marles ALP 13.01
Chifley NSW Ed Husic ALP 13.36
Franklin Tas Julie Collins ALP 13.70
Hotham Vic Clare O'Neil ALP 14.25
Kingsford Smith NSW Matt Thistlethwaite ALP 14.51
Cunningham NSW Alison Byrnes ALP 14.70
Perth WA Patrick Gorman ALP 14.80
Blaxland NSW Jason Clare ALP 14.94
Burt WA Matt Keogh ALP 15.21
Watson NSW Tony Burke ALP 15.21
Barton NSW Linda Burney ALP 15.54
Scullin Vic Andrew Giles ALP 15.58
Fenner ACT Andrew Leigh ALP 15.69
Kingston SA Amanda Rishworth ALP 16.35
Sydney NSW Tanya Plibersek ALP vs. GRN 16.56
Brand WA Madeleine King ALP 16.71
Fraser Vic Daniel Mulino ALP 16.73
Fremantle WA Josh Wilson ALP 16.89
Grayndler NSW Anthony Albanese ALP vs. GRN 17.06
Newcastle NSW Sharon Claydon ALP 17.98
Opposition seats - 58
Marginal
Deakin Vic Michael Sukkar LIB 0.19
Sturt SA James Stevens LIB 0.45
Moore WA Ian Goodenough LIB 0.66
Menzies Vic Keith Wolahan LIB 0.68
Bass Tas Bridget Archer LIB 1.43
Casey Vic Aaron Violi LIB 1.48
Dickson Qld Peter Dutton LNP 1.70
Cowper NSW Pat Conaghan NAT vs. IND 2.32
Aston Vic Alan Tudge[a] LIB 2.81
Monash Vic Russell Broadbent[b] LIB 2.90
Longman Qld Terry Young LNP 3.08
Banks NSW David Coleman LIB 3.20
Bonner Qld Ross Vasta LNP 3.41
Leichhardt Qld Warren Entsch LNP 3.44
Canning WA Andrew Hastie LIB 3.59
Nicholls Vic Sam Birrell NAT vs. IND 3.81
Flynn Qld Colin Boyce LNP 3.82
Wannon Vic Dan Tehan LIB vs. IND 3.92
Bradfield NSW Paul Fletcher LIB vs. IND 4.21
Forde Qld Bert Van Manen LNP 4.23
Durack WA Melissa Price LIB 4.27
Forrest WA Nola Marino LIB 4.29
Petrie Qld Luke Howarth LNP 4.44
Bowman Qld Henry Pike LNP 5.51
Fairly safe
Lindsay NSW Melissa McIntosh LIB 6.34
Capricornia Qld Michelle Landry LNP 6.59
Flinders Vic Zoe McKenzie LIB 6.70
Groom Qld Garth Hamilton LNP vs. IND 6.89
O'Connor WA Rick Wilson LIB 6.97
Hughes NSW Jenny Ware LIB 7.01
Hume NSW Angus Taylor LIB 7.72
Braddon Tas Gavin Pearce LIB 8.03
Fisher Qld Andrew Wallace LNP 8.67
La Trobe Vic Jason Wood LIB 8.69
Fairfax Qld Ted O'Brien LNP 8.97
McPherson Qld Karen Andrews LNP 9.34
Calare NSW Andrew Gee[c] NAT vs. IND 9.68
Berowra NSW Julian Leeser LIB 9.77
Safe
Grey SA Rowan Ramsey LIB 10.07
Hinkler Qld Keith Pitt LNP 10.07
Dawson Qld Andrew Willcox LNP 10.42
Fadden Qld Stuart Robert[d] LNP 10.63
Mitchell NSW Alex Hawke LIB 10.69
Page NSW Kevin Hogan NAT 10.74
Wright Qld Scott Buchholz LNP 10.89
Moncrieff Qld Angie Bell LNP 11.19
Wide Bay Qld Llew O'Brien LNP 11.34
Herbert Qld Phillip Thompson LNP 11.77
Cook NSW Scott Morrison LIB 12.44
Lyne NSW David Gillespie NAT 13.80
Riverina NSW Michael McCormack NAT 14.85
Farrer NSW Sussan Ley LIB 16.35
New England NSW Barnaby Joyce NAT 16.43
Barker SA Tony Pasin LIB 16.62
Parkes NSW Mark Coulton NAT 17.84
Mallee Vic Anne Webster NAT 18.99
Gippsland Vic Darren Chester NAT 20.57
Maranoa Qld David Littleproud LNP 22.12
Crossbench seats - 16
Greens seats - 4
Marginal
Ryan Qld Elizabeth Watson-Brown GRN vs. LNP 2.65
Brisbane Qld Stephen Bates GRN vs. LNP 3.73
Safe
Melbourne Vic Adam Bandt GRN vs. ALP 10.15
Griffith Qld Max Chandler-Mather GRN vs. LNP 10.46
Other Crossbench - 12
Marginal
Curtin WA Kate Chaney IND vs. LIB 1.26
Fowler NSW Dai Le IND vs. ALP 1.63
Mackellar NSW Sophie Scamps IND vs. LIB 2.50
Goldstein Vic Zoe Daniel IND vs. LIB 2.87
North Sydney NSW Kylea Tink IND vs. LIB 2.91
Kooyong Vic Monique Ryan IND vs. LIB 2.94
Wentworth NSW Allegra Spender IND vs. LIB 4.19
Fairly safe
Indi Vic Helen Haines IND vs. LIB 9.08
Safe
Warringah NSW Zali Steggall IND vs. LIB 10.92
Mayo SA Rebekha Sharkie CA vs. LIB 12.27
Kennedy Qld Bob Katter KAP vs. LNP 13.10
Clark Tas Andrew Wilkie IND vs. ALP 20.82

Analysis

Notes

References

Related Articles

Wikiwand AI