Talk:2009–10 UEFA Champions League group stage

these are the REAL order of the groups and the dates of every matches http://www.uefa.com/multimediafiles/download/competitions/ucl/87/89/33/878933_download.pdf 190.142.189.129 (talk) 18:15, 27 August 2009 (UTC)

Summarize Timeline Fact Check

Bordeaux is in from group A since worst-case scenario is they end in a tie with Bayern Munich who they beat and drew. Chelsea and Porto are in from group D because they are eight and seven pts clear of Atletico Madrid with two matches to play. Manchester United is in from group B since if they have the tiebreaker over CSKA in case of a two-way tie for second on points, and because in a three-way tie for the group at 10 points, they (and Wolfsburg) would have 7 points in matches among the tied teams while CSKA would have only 4 they would have more points than CKSA in matches among the tied teams. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 173.61.133.203 (talk) 22:06, 3 November 2009 (UTC)

I think there are a few errors in the scenarios:

Group B: I'm not convinced CSKA Moscow guarantees Europa League with a win. If they win, Besiktas win, and they lose by more than one goal to Besiktas in the final match while Wolfsburg do not lose to Man U, Man U and Wolfsburg will be the top two (either tied at 10 or at 11 and 8), and Besiktas would hold the advantage via head-to-head GD for third place (tied at 7). Meanwhile, Wolfsburg is already guaranteed at least Europa League (they hold head-to-head over Besiktas with a win and draw and can't do worse than a split with Moscow, so if it ends up a three-way tie at 7 Wolfsburg still gets second on H2H).

Group C: Milan also qualifies for the Champions League knockouts if both games next matchday end in draws; worst case, they lose to Zurich and stay at 8, Zurich gets 7, and Marseille and Real Madrid can't both be ahead (a Real win puts them at 11 and Marseille at 7, a draw puts Real at 9 and Marseille at 8, a Marseille win puts them at 10 and Real at 8) and Milan would have the tiebreaker over either with a win and draw head-to-head. Marseille clinches at least Europa League with a win (Zurich could catch them, but that would leave Milan behind and Marseille would have the tiebreaker anyway), a Zurich loss, or both games are draws (H2H buys it for them).

Group H: Arsenal also qualifies for the Champions League knockouts if Olympiacos loses to AZ.

Didn't check elimination scenarios very carefully, just looking at clinching. PiGuy314 (talk) 03:57, 6 November 2009 (UTC)

And these errors are exactly why I don't think we should include the next matchday scenarios. There are often very many permutations, and we can't consider all of them. Furthermore, those passages are completely unsourced; no other websites list qualification/elimination scenarios in the same detail as we have been, so how can we even be certain that the scenarios we come up with are correct? – PeeJay 07:48, 6 November 2009 (UTC)