Talk:Polymarket
Decentralized prediction market platform
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Request edits for March 2024
| This edit request by an editor with a conflict of interest has now been answered. |
Hi editors. This article is very short and lacks a lot of information about the company. I have several ideas for adding sources and content to improve the page. I work for Polymarket and understand that I can’t do this myself. I’d appreciate anyone who has the time to look these over.
1. Please add an Infobox to the page:
| Polymarket | |
|---|---|
| Original author | |
| Developer | Shayne Coplan |
| Platform | Ethereum |
| Available in | English |
| Type | Prediction Market Platform |
| License | Free software (GPL) |
| Website | polymarket |
Done Encoded Talk 💬 07:22, 1 May 2024 (UTC)
2. Please add a sentence to become the new third sentence in the Lead paragraph:
Polymarket is a prediction market platform built on the Ethereum blockchain.[1]
Reason for the change:
The current Lead paragraph is missing fundamental information about how the company operates. The suggested addition is based on reporting in a high quality source.
Done
3. Please add a new section called “History”directly after the first paragraph:
“History”
Founded by Shayne Coplan,[2] Polymarket launched in 2020 as an online prediction market platform that would allow users to trade on the outcome of world events.[3] The company was founded on the idea that by providing real time forecasts on events as they unfolded, Polymarket could function as an alternative to traditional news sources.[1]
Reason for the change:
“History” is a standard feature in Wikipedia articles and the suggested first paragraph uses reliable reporting to provide important details about the company’s founding and purpose.
Not done WP:PROMO Encoded Talk 💬 07:23, 1 May 2024 (UTC)
- @Encoded:Thanks for your help with these updates. Here’s a revised suggestion for the first sentence of the first paragraph of the History section. Based on your feedback, I stripped the language down to key information about the company that is currently missing from the section.
- Polymarket was founded by Shayne Coplan[4] in 2020 as an online prediction market platform that would allow users to trade on the outcome of world events.[3]
- Thanks for looking this over.Mathlover111 (talk) 18:17, 25 June 2024 (UTC) Mathlover111 (talk) 18:17, 25 June 2024 (UTC)
4. Please add a paragraph to become the second paragraph of the newly created History section:
Coplan designed Polymarket on the Ethereum blockchain network.[1]
Reason for the change:
The suggested paragraph uses reporting from a reliable media source to describe a fundamental aspect of the company’s founding.
Done Encoded Talk 💬 07:27, 1 May 2024 (UTC)
5. Please move what should now be the fourth paragraph of the newly created History section to become the second paragraph of the History section:
In January 2022, the platform was fined US$1.4 million by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, alongside receiving a cease and desist order, following regulation violations including not registering as a Swap Execution Facility.[5][6]
Reason for the change:
The event described happens earlier in the company History than the event described in the current third paragraph. Moving it brings the section into chronological order.
Done Encoded Talk 💬 07:27, 1 May 2024 (UTC)
6. Please add a paragraph to become the new fourth paragraph of the History section proposed in item 3:
In May 2022, Polymarket appointed J. Christopher Giancarlo, a former Commissioner of the CFTC, as chairman of its advisory board.[7]
Reason for the change:
The suggested paragraph describes developments in the company’s history that were covered in a prominent news source.
Done Encoded Talk 💬 07:27, 1 May 2024 (UTC)
7. Please replace what should now be the fifth paragraph of the newly created History section:
Events on which bets have been placed included the outcome of the Titan submersible investigation and the likelihood of Russia utilising nuclear weapons.[8]
Done Encoded Talk 💬 07:27, 1 May 2024 (UTC)
Please replace with:
In June 2023, Mother Jones reported that interest around the company reported that interest around the company increased after a tweet about the outcome of the Titan submersible went viral;[9] the premise of the bet was whether or not the submersible would be found by a certain date[9] rather than a wager on the fate of the passengers.[3] Polymarket had over 60 markets available at the time of the submersible wager, including the outcome of the Guatemalan presidential election and the likelihood of Twitter suing Meta, and the likelihood that Russia would use nuclear force.[3]
Reason for the change:
The existing paragraph is missing important chronological detail and is written in the present tense. The suggested replacement uses reporting in highly reputable news sources to place the events in chronological order and expands details around the event.
Done Encoded Talk 💬 07:27, 1 May 2024 (UTC)
Thanks very much for reviewing these suggestions. Mathlover111 (talk) 16:38, 24 April 2024 (UTC) Mathlover111 (talk) 16:38, 24 April 2024 (UTC)
References
- Jakobson, Leo (20 October 2020). "With $4M round, Polymarket predicts success". Modern Consensus. Retrieved 1 March 2024.
- Pickering, Andy (5 October 2020). "The Information Market – Polymarket lets traders bet on real-world events". Brave New Coin. Retrieved 4 March 2024.
- "A resurgent online betting market is boosted by crypto and current events". NBC News. 2023-07-10. Retrieved 2023-12-13.
- Folk, Zachary (14 May 2024). "Peter Thiel Invests In Polymarket Political Betting Platform—But The Future Of Gambling On Elections Remains Unclear". Forbes. Retrieved 19 June 2024.
- "CFTC Fines Polymarket and Issues a Cease and Desist". Yahoo Finance. 2022-01-04. Retrieved 2023-12-13.
- "Event-Betting Platform Polymarket to Pay $1.4 Million U.S. Fine". Bloomberg.com. 2022-01-03. Retrieved 2023-12-13.
- Natarajan, Sridhar (19 May 2022). "Crypto Betting Service Polymarket Taps Ex-CFTC Head as Chair After Agency Probe". Bloomberg. Retrieved 1 March 2024.
- "A resurgent online betting market is boosted by crypto and current events". NBC News. 2023-07-10. Retrieved 2023-12-13.
- Breland, Ali (23 June 2023). "Meet the Internet Gamblers Who Won Big Betting on the Submarine's Fate". Mother Jones. Retrieved 29 February 2024.
Updates for June 2024
| This edit request by an editor with a conflict of interest has now been answered. |
Hi editors. This page is missing basic biographical details like the name of founder and date of founding. I have some suggestions for adding that information as well as other updates. I work for Polymarket and won’t make these edits myself. I appreciate any editor who has time to take a look. Thanks.
@Encoded: Thanks for your help with the last round of updates. Wondering if you’d like to look these over as well?
1. In the History section, please add a sentence to become the second sentence of the first paragraph:
According to the CTFC, Polymarket offered “substantial cooperation” throughout the investigation which resulted in the company receiving a lower fine.[1]
Reason for the change:
The sentence adds context around the company’s involvement in the investigation which was noteworthy enough to be reported in a leading media source.
Done jbening Talk 💬 Jbening (talk) Jbening (talk) 15:33, 10 July 2024 (UTC)
2. Please add a paragraph to become the new fourth paragraph of the History section: In May 2024, it was announced that Polymarket had raised $70 million across two rounds of funding.[2] The rounds included investments from Vitalik Buterin, the co-founder of Ethereum, and Founders Fund, a venture capital firm founded by Peter Theil.[1]
Reason for the change:
The paragraph adds information about the company’s history as reported in two high profile media sources that covered the development.
Done jbening Talk 💬 Jbening (talk) Jbening (talk) 15:33, 10 July 2024 (UTC)
3. Please add a paragraph to become the new fifth paragraph of the History section: In 2024, the outcome of U.S. elections became the most active market on the platform[3] with over $125 million wagered on the presidential race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden.[1]
Reason for the change:
Reporting on previous wagers is already included in the article. Adding information is an update to the section based on reporting in high quality media sources.
Done jbening Talk 💬 Jbening (talk) Jbening (talk) 15:33, 10 July 2024 (UTC)
4. Please remove the warning template from the top of the article. Reason for the change:
With the addition of the new sources included in these edit requests, Polymarket has been the subject of in-depth feature coverage in NBC News, Bloomberg Forbes, and an article in Mother Jones. (I have included extended quotations from the paywalled Bloomberg article to give editors a sense of the coverage) As such, the article meets the notability guidelines for companies.
Done jbening Talk 💬 Jbening (talk) 16:41, 5 July 2024 (UTC)
- @Jbening: Thanks so much for addressing the notability issue. Would you mind taking a look at the other three edits I suggested? Mathlover111 (talk) 19:34, 8 July 2024 (UTC)
Thank you for taking the time to look over these updates.Mathlover111 (talk) 18:18, 25 June 2024 (UTC) Mathlover111 (talk) 18:18, 25 June 2024 (UTC)
References
- Folk, Zachary (14 May 2024). "Peter Thiel Invests In Polymarket Political Betting Platform—But The Future Of Gambling On Elections Remains Unclear". Forbes. Retrieved 19 June 2024.
- Natarajan, Sridhar; Pan, David (14 May 2024). "Peter Thiel's VC Firm Backs Election Betting With Polymarket Investment". Bloomberg. Retrieved 19 June 2024.
Polymarket has raised $70 million across two rounds, with the most recent raise led by Founders Fund...
- Natarajan, Sridhar; Pan, David (14 May 2024). "Peter Thiel's VC Firm Backs Election Betting With Polymarket Investment". Bloomberg. Retrieved 19 June 2024.
Election betting has driven the biggest surge in activity on Polymarket, with more than $170 million wagered on events tied to the US elections...
accuracy
From a quick search on Bing lead me to find this source and it may be useful to help expand this article
the question is is it reliable? if so we can draft up a section about polymarkets accuracy.
thanks
Daisytheduck quack quack 10:17, 3 September 2024 (UTC)
Manipulation attempt
rajivsethi.substack.com/p/a-failed-attempt-at-prediction-market is pretty interesting (you'll have to paste the url since I don't seem to be able to post actual links). Apparently there are derivative contracts indexed to who is leading on the Polymarket presidential election market for the majority of a specific 3-hour period. So just before that time (last Friday, Sept 6), Kamala Harris was a little bit behind Donald Trump, so some traders dumped a pile of money (millions) into Polymarket to temporarily nudge Harris into the lead at just the right moment. That in turn was supposed to make the derivative contracts go from near-worthless to highly valuable. The attempt didn't quite work because they didn't hold the edge for quite long enough, or something like that. But it shows that the markets can be moved around, and since their predictions can be self-fulfilling, it is a form of election manipulation as well. I think the incident should be mentioned in the Polymarket article. I think it is ok to cite Sethi's substack post for this (he is an economics professor who works in the area of information and beliefs (economics.barnard.edu/profiles/rajiv-sethi). There may be some other sources by now too (I haven't looked). 2601:644:8581:75B0:0:0:0:8C8A (talk) 09:37, 10 September 2024 (UTC)
- As of now there is little evidence that this is happening. All that’s in the article is a WSJ article behind a paywall. LuxembourgLover (talk) 18:11, 18 October 2024 (UTC)
Polygon
I added a mention of Polymarket from Polygon (blockchain), which was reverted citing concerns with the sources . To me this seems like an uncontroversial statement which might not even require a source. Any input on that, or help finding a better source, would be welcome. — xDanielx T/C\R 23:11, 21 October 2024 (UTC)
Polymarket a "betting site"
I tried to include the word "bet" into the lead, but it was removed. I have put the "bet" word back. But I am thinking, the word "bet", "betting", or "betting site" may actually belong in the first sentence, and perhaps the short description. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/mystery-overseas-account-increases-its-trump-bids-polymarket-betting-site-2024-10-21/ and many others use gambling terms including "wagers". The lead to this article reads like it is describing the New York Stock Exchange, when (correct me if I'm wrong) it's pretty much an on-line bookmaker. Marcus Markup (talk) 08:59, 22 October 2024 (UTC)
Fraud?
@PieterTenHag: could you please provide sources for the fraud content you added? Keep in mind that our rules prevent us from including material based on original research, or sources that aren't deemed reliable, even if the statements have merit.
My cursory search didn't turn up any suitable sources, so I'm going to revert for now, but we can potentially add it back if sources are available which meet our requirements. — xDanielx T/C\R 17:48, 28 October 2024 (UTC)
- I see a source was added, but user-generated content generally isn't considered an acceptable source per our guidelines. This will probably need to be removed unless/until it gets picked up by a reputable news or other reliable source. — xDanielx T/C\R 17:57, 28 October 2024 (UTC)
Too much detail on the weeks before the 2024 election.
This is an article about the platform Polimarkets, not about all the people involved in predicting the outcome of the 2024 election. A little basics about the election would be good to put in, but it would make more sense to add it after, and keep it roughly the same level of detail as the section about the Titanic submersible, and other events that are discussed.
As it is it reads like we've switched topics and here explaining why Poly isn't really right about Trump winning. While that's interesting, it's speculative. Better to write about this after the election concludes than try to stay up with the daily fluctuations. Write about Poli, not about Trump vs. Kamala. The last two paragraphs should be deleted, or at least trimmed way down to stay on the actual topic of the article and make them able to survive without hourly updates. . ZeroXero (talk) 00:41, 2 November 2024 (UTC)
- I consider this a particularly notable event involving the firm in a very significant subject matter that is not referencing daily fluctuations or speculation. I see no cause to wait until after the election to include reliably sourced content.
make them able to survive
gives me pause as to why removal of the content is suggested. soibangla (talk) 01:22, 2 November 2024 (UTC)
- It does need work. For example, currently, it looks like the encyclopedia is promoting a left-wing conspiracy theory when it gives prominence to the claim that Trump's 60% odds of winning was due to $30 million dollars worth of bets... this, in a $2.7 billion dollar market. A casual reader might think that such a paltry sum continues to affect the market, and continues to account for the 60% or so odds he continues to have today... its prominence in the article just makes us look dumb. Marcus Markup (talk) 03:17, 2 November 2024 (UTC)
- I am not familiar with Forbes, WSJ and CNBC promoting left-wing conspiracy theories and I am confident our text is faithful to their reporting, including that the large bets were not necessarily nefarious and that Poly found no manipulation. That said, the event is notable in the context of an incipient election, with a deeply involved and influential person saying betting markets are "More accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line."[ Consequently I do not see
the encyclopedia is promoting a left-wing conspiracy theory
and I find the current content is fine. soibangla (talk) 03:46, 2 November 2024 (UTC)
- I am not familiar with Forbes, WSJ and CNBC promoting left-wing conspiracy theories and I am confident our text is faithful to their reporting, including that the large bets were not necessarily nefarious and that Poly found no manipulation. That said, the event is notable in the context of an incipient election, with a deeply involved and influential person saying betting markets are "More accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line."[ Consequently I do not see
Agreed. Info about the total amounts wagered is interesting; about whether certain large bets might move the market is borderline; but discussion of odds and outcomes is irrelevant. We wouldn't deem it worthy of coverage if William Hill had Gentleman George on 5:1 to win, then he did... cagliost (talk) 22:04, 5 November 2024 (UTC)
- Polymarket played an important role in the 2024 US Presidential election. It is important and due. Need to minimize it in the LEAD however, as it is a bit too much current events. Jtbobwaysf (talk) 21:26, 6 November 2024 (UTC)
- KA. Gee wizz brown nose much. What they are doing is wrong and the good ole boy club will fall because there are too many people to trust and Trump should trust no one. And anyone trusted by Trump should not cry once he uses them for his scapegoat. Where is his 1st wife again? betrayal. He is on the Darkside, luke. 2603:8001:3340:FD00:A111:259B:4F01:40CF (talk) 03:47, 15 November 2024 (UTC)
Better source for FBI raid?
Is there a BLP-compliant source for the FBI raid? I looked a bit and saw a lot of press, but nothing clearly-reliable yet. There's WSJ but it's on a live blog. Cc @Codyave:, though of course anyone could help find a better source. — xDanielx T/C\R 22:09, 13 November 2024 (UTC)
- The link that you shared doesnt look like a blog to me. Looks totally BLP RS compliant to me. We also have Reuters, forbes, and wsj (maybe this is the same wsj as you shared, but it not part of livecoverage). Thanks! Jtbobwaysf (talk) 23:10, 13 November 2024 (UTC)
Prediction betting markets
We should describe Poly / Kalshi / other "event futures" markets as prediction betting markets. That's the language used on Kalshi and should be used here also. All bets are "event futures", a lede shouldn't use euphemisms or try to normalize recent jargon. We can note that various regulatory / legal / public relations discussions switch between 'betting' and 'trading event futures' depending on what legal precedent they wish to rely on.
The primary driver of usage and revenue is sports betting, and they are explicitly competing for customers with sports books. Polymarket Sports continues to use the tagline "No limits. No house. Instant cashouts." which is notably not how CME (for instance) describes their market. – SJ + 06:34, 8 February 2026 (UTC)
- @Sj: I reverted your edit as I disagree. I would like to see how the sources treat this first. You mentioned the CME in your edit summary, but nowhere on the CME article does it mention betting. It appears your recent edit advances a POV that this is a gambling website, and it is not treated as such in the WP:RS, nor is it treated as such by US regulators, and most important it is not treated as such in the body of the article. Even prior to the Trump involvement (or whatever we call it), regulators were asserting it was an unregistered Swap Execution Facility. They were not suggesting it was an unregistered online casino. So where are we getting this sports betting slant that you sought to summarize in the lead of the article? Probably the other article you mentioned Kalshi or whatever it is called should be changed as well (I have now also removed that piped in text), never heard of that platform until now. If we look at the article Poly (not talking about this Kalshi that I only heard about today) we see that most of the events that Polymarket is notable for are not sports events. The WP:LEAD summarizes. Polymarket I think was notable for the election outcome, the invasion (or attack or whatever it is called) of Venezuela, etc. Its not notable as a place to bet on the superbowl, although I am sure there is plenty of that there. Jtbobwaysf (talk) 07:17, 8 February 2026 (UTC)
- My point was that CME isn't marketing to gamblers, and isn't trying to compete with sportsbooks. Polymarket is doing both. Polymarket started out in world events and politics but has now aggressively expanded into sports: there are now almost 3000 open sports markets, twice as many as in politics.
- It is a point of view that polymarket is a site for gambling as defined by the laws of various jurisdictions (specifically sports gambling), but a fairly neutral one; that is the named reason for its regulation or banning in a range of countries. It is in the news quite a lot for its sportsbook: going to war with casinos, helping Super Bowl gamblers get around restrictions, helping rewrite the playbook for professional gamblers, hit by a class action suit, &c. Every country or state imposing restrictions mentions sports betting. – SJ + 08:45, 8 February 2026 (UTC)
- Well then maybe they will have to depart that part of their business in some states, but it doesn't summarize the business, and the sort of 'who cares' type of thing for us editors. Just because they have a cateogry called sports, doesnt mean they are marketing sports. I am not sure if polymarket does any marketing at all. Do they? This is the sort of thing where every jurisdiction will object to some part of their biz and that generate sources for us to cite. But the coverage is no where comparable to the coverage of the trump win (I think it was some French investor who bet on it), this was subject of massive global coverage. As well as the Venezuela invasion thing, also subject of massive coverage. So we have two different political events that got massive coverage, and we have some states that are unhappy there is sports better. The latter is meh, and certainly not enough to use piped in text to overwrite the term Prediction Marketplace. The sources you gave most (or all?) of them use the term prediction markets in the URL and title of the story, so this only anchors our use of that text and argues against any claim it is jargon. We have an article for Prediction Market, we are not going to use piped in text because we dont like it, nor are we going to assert that since a Prediction Market offers sports gambling (who cares) that it is then a sports gambling and not a Prediction Marketplace. I think it is WP:obvious that these marketplaces are going to offer everything including sports. Users create the markets right? I am not sure exactly how it works, but I think they might. You are arguing that the marketplace's failure to censor activity then defines the marketplace by that activity. Its akin to using piped in text to say a darknet marketplace is a drugs market, since they sell more drugs than guns or a flea market is a furniture market since they sell more furniture than fleas (although its debatable there are not more fleas living in the furniture). Jtbobwaysf (talk) 09:05, 8 February 2026 (UTC)
- What is the future of furniture if there are fleas who are selling drugs on Polymarket? I'm getting confused.

- Seriously though, Polymarket is a prediction market (not a betting platform or casino, etc.) and it is the case that sports betting is enabled by a large number of Polymarket's traded contracts. It seems like we can make everyone happy by saying both, in that order. —Quantling (talk | contribs) 21:26, 8 February 2026 (UTC)
- Sure I dont have an issue with updating the lead in a neutral way. It is just not neutral to start using terms like betting in the lead, since we dont use those terms for the various stock exchanges. Buying and selling stocks and options is also betting in principle, we just dont use those terms on the other exchange article so we shouldnt here. Jtbobwaysf (talk) 08:00, 9 February 2026 (UTC)
- Quick look from the source list:
- Ref 1, CBInsights: "Polymarket serves the prediction market space by facilitating betting activities."
- Ref 2, WSJ: "the cryptocurrency-based betting platform."
- Ref 3, FT: Describes the question on whether it was operating in the US as whether it "illegally accepted bets from Americans."
- Ref 4, Forbes: Described in the heading as a "political betting platform", in body says "allows users to bet on the outcomes of real world events"
- Ref 5, NBC: Described in heading as a "betting market", in the body as "one of many online prediction markets that have emerged in recent years to take bets on a wide variety of current events."
- Ref 6, Yahoo Finance: "Polymarket is a well-known, decentralized platform that allows users to bet on the outcome of current events."
- And at this point I stopped but the next four sources (three from Bloomberg, one from Mother Jones) all described it as a betting platform or the activity as betting in the headline, and a quick look shows that continues many times through the rest of the source list. Whether to call it a prediction market I don't really care about - prediction market seems to be accepted language for this kind of fintech spin on an online gambling company - but our sources pretty much universally accept the term betting to describe the activity done on the platform. Given it's accepted language and 'trade events contracts' is unnecessarily technical, 'betting' should be used per MOS:JARGON even if it weren't the most common descriptor (which it seems to me to be). I don't know how you've come to the conclusion the word 'betting' doesn't reflect the sources here @Jtbobwaysf, but in any case it was incorrect. Chaste Krassley (talk) 00:06, 10 February 2026 (UTC)
- The word betting can be found in some sources, generally you will also find Prediction Market used there as well. That doesn't mean it is ok to call it a betting platform rather than prediction marketplace because both words can be found. If you are seeking to depreciate the use of "Prediction Market" and replace it (WP:MOVE to "online casino" or (something like that)), then the discussion should probably be at over at the Prediction Market article and you can be sure that is going to be a controversial move, just as the suggestion here to use piped in text (which I also removed when the editor above suggested this article should follow that one. BTW, the yahoo source is syndicated content and isn't an WP:RS in this case, nor is this CBIinsights. This article is in a way a sub-article of Prediction Market, it is one of the players in the space. The editor above attempted to push forth the concept that polymarket was "marketing" and now you are pushing a POV that you think that a prediction marketplace is a "fintech spin on an online gambling company." I dont agree with this, it doesnt follow the sources, and if you both still want to push it, then do an RFC. But probably should start at the Prediction Market article, as the RFC will soon be conflated by this Kalshi and whatever other marketplaces are out there. Jtbobwaysf (talk) 05:59, 10 February 2026 (UTC)
- Per Wikipedia POLICY, we characterize organizations as done by Reliable Sources. Your explanations and logic here are irrelevant. As can clearly be seen in sources (not just clickbait headlines, but the text of sources) this company's operations are characterized as "betting" and that is the term we should use. ---Avatar317(talk) 06:18, 10 February 2026 (UTC)
- The word betting can be found in some sources, generally you will also find Prediction Market used there as well. That doesn't mean it is ok to call it a betting platform rather than prediction marketplace because both words can be found. If you are seeking to depreciate the use of "Prediction Market" and replace it (WP:MOVE to "online casino" or (something like that)), then the discussion should probably be at over at the Prediction Market article and you can be sure that is going to be a controversial move, just as the suggestion here to use piped in text (which I also removed when the editor above suggested this article should follow that one. BTW, the yahoo source is syndicated content and isn't an WP:RS in this case, nor is this CBIinsights. This article is in a way a sub-article of Prediction Market, it is one of the players in the space. The editor above attempted to push forth the concept that polymarket was "marketing" and now you are pushing a POV that you think that a prediction marketplace is a "fintech spin on an online gambling company." I dont agree with this, it doesnt follow the sources, and if you both still want to push it, then do an RFC. But probably should start at the Prediction Market article, as the RFC will soon be conflated by this Kalshi and whatever other marketplaces are out there. Jtbobwaysf (talk) 05:59, 10 February 2026 (UTC)
- Sure I dont have an issue with updating the lead in a neutral way. It is just not neutral to start using terms like betting in the lead, since we dont use those terms for the various stock exchanges. Buying and selling stocks and options is also betting in principle, we just dont use those terms on the other exchange article so we shouldnt here. Jtbobwaysf (talk) 08:00, 9 February 2026 (UTC)
- What is the future of furniture if there are fleas who are selling drugs on Polymarket? I'm getting confused.
- Well then maybe they will have to depart that part of their business in some states, but it doesn't summarize the business, and the sort of 'who cares' type of thing for us editors. Just because they have a cateogry called sports, doesnt mean they are marketing sports. I am not sure if polymarket does any marketing at all. Do they? This is the sort of thing where every jurisdiction will object to some part of their biz and that generate sources for us to cite. But the coverage is no where comparable to the coverage of the trump win (I think it was some French investor who bet on it), this was subject of massive global coverage. As well as the Venezuela invasion thing, also subject of massive coverage. So we have two different political events that got massive coverage, and we have some states that are unhappy there is sports better. The latter is meh, and certainly not enough to use piped in text to overwrite the term Prediction Marketplace. The sources you gave most (or all?) of them use the term prediction markets in the URL and title of the story, so this only anchors our use of that text and argues against any claim it is jargon. We have an article for Prediction Market, we are not going to use piped in text because we dont like it, nor are we going to assert that since a Prediction Market offers sports gambling (who cares) that it is then a sports gambling and not a Prediction Marketplace. I think it is WP:obvious that these marketplaces are going to offer everything including sports. Users create the markets right? I am not sure exactly how it works, but I think they might. You are arguing that the marketplace's failure to censor activity then defines the marketplace by that activity. Its akin to using piped in text to say a darknet marketplace is a drugs market, since they sell more drugs than guns or a flea market is a furniture market since they sell more furniture than fleas (although its debatable there are not more fleas living in the furniture). Jtbobwaysf (talk) 09:05, 8 February 2026 (UTC)
RFC bets vs trade
Shall we use the term in the WP:LEAD that Polymarket (a Prediction market) users:
- Option A: Launched in 2020, it offers a platform where individuals can trade event contracts on future outcomes
- Option B: Launched in 2020, it offers a platform where individuals can place bets on future event outcomes
- Option C: Launched in 2020, it offers a platform where individuals can speculate on future event outcomes
Distinguished in this diff Thanks! Jtbobwaysf (talk) 23:20, 10 February 2026 (UTC)
Polling
- Option A or Option C trade event contracts per MOS:FIRST that says "The first sentence should introduce the topic, and tell the nonspecialist reader what or who the subject is, and often when or where. It should be in plain English." Trading event contracts is a plain English technical term, but it is not jargon. We know from WP:LEAD "It should be written in a clear, accessible style with a neutral point of view." It is not neutral to label an exchange as a betting platform since some news articles label it as that. We also know from MOS:DONTTEASE is that this is not a teaser that some consider this to be a 'new fangled' gambling website. We also know that we are supposed to summarize the article, and Polymarket#History tells us it is legal in the US at this point in time (Trump comments aside) and it was earlier investigated by the CFTC for failure to register as Swap Execution Facility. It has never been investigated in the US as a gambling platform. Thus there are many reasons why we should avoid parroting journalism clickbait in the first sentence of the lead. While the lead can clearly be improved and expanded and can even include these gambling claims, but to put it in the first sentence is undue. Jtbobwaysf (talk) 02:33, 11 February 2026 (UTC)
- (Summoned by bot) Option B. We should characterize it by what reliable sources say, and reliable sources call it a betting market, because that's really what it is. I disagree that calling it a platform where a person can 'trade event contracts' would fit MOS:FIRST by describing it to a
nonspecialist reader
. Most readers will not know what 'trading event contracts' mean, but they will understand what betting is. Furthermore I don't think it violates neutrality to call it a betting market, because as already pointed out it is described as one by reliable sources. The fact it hasn't been investigated as a gambling platform does not have any bearing on what we should call it, because doing so without a reliable source saying such a thing and going into what that means would be WP:OR. SmittenGalaxy | talk! 16:07, 10 February 2026 (UTC) - Option B is short and clear. Option A is confusing jargon that reads like a PR euphemism. "Speculate" is still too ambiguous for the first sentence IMO. Grayfell (talk) 23:19, 10 February 2026 (UTC)
- Option B is supported by the vast majority of sources, which call it a "betting" platform, as can be seen in the above post (previous discussion) by editor Chaste Krassley. Also, as already mentioned by others, it is the more common and standard terminology (like "cancer" vs. malignant neoplasm).---Avatar317(talk) 23:48, 10 February 2026 (UTC)
- Option B. I've looked at even more of the sources in the discussion section below and the results are as was indicated by the smaller sample: 'betting' is overwhelmingly the preferred term used by English language news media to describe the activity on the platform. Chaste Krassley (talk) 00:17, 11 February 2026 (UTC)
- Option C. "Speculating" is less pejorative than "placing bets" or "betting". Neutral language in the lead is at the top of the guidance ("It should be written in a clear, accessible style with a neutral point of view.") As a layperson I don't understand the term "trading events contracts." What's a "trading event"? Or if it's trading "event contracts", how do you "trade" one? It may seem I'm being obtuse, but it comes off as word salad. I'd rather have "betting" or "placing bets". (invited randomly by a bot) Jojalozzo (talk) 01:37, 11 February 2026 (UTC)
- (Summoned by bot) Option B. "Betting" is the best term proposed that gives the public the right idea about what prediction markets about as evidenced by the use of the term by independent reliable sources. Prediction markets also depart from the most common betting scenarios, and the lede should also explain the "speculation", "trading", or "exchanging" of bets. "Betting" is not particularly pejorative in any way that is unfair to prediction markets. Groceryheist (talk) 20:17, 12 February 2026 (UTC)
- Option B. I browsed the most recent news articles about Polymarket and the majority of sources use the language "bets" or "betting" to describe what it is . Wikipedia policy is to follow RSes, not make arbitrary judgments. novov talk edits 07:46, 14 February 2026 (UTC)
- Option B. Thanks for setting up the RfC, B is the shortest and clearest option, and consistently used by most sources. It's not pejorative, people who use the platform also use that phrase. "How to bet on polymarket", "Best polymarket bets", poly apps dedicated to optimizing betting, &c. Speculation in stock markets that doesn't involve owning an underlying asset like a share of a company can also be called betting, cf. spread betting. – SJ + 18:07, 14 February 2026 (UTC)
- Option A As it offers the most neutral, non-subjective description of the activities. Coffeeurbanite (talk) 02:10, 18 February 2026 (UTC)
- Option B Per MOS:FIRST "The first sentence should introduce the topic, and tell the nonspecialist reader what or who the subject is, and often when or where. It should be in plain English." While "trading event contracts" is a plain English technical term, it is not one I feel a nonspecialist would understand, and as Greyfell said, "Speculate" feels too ambiguous for the first sentence. DragonBrickLayer (talk) 03:37, 18 February 2026 (UTC)
- Option B per the simplest explanation that avoids jargon and euphemism. I'd be ok with (and perhaps prefer) Option C if the article then immediately describes how the "speculation" done here is different than traditional bets / sports betting. (Is it? Is that part of their legal argument? That's something I want to learn from the lead.) PK-WIKI (talk) 17:51, 18 February 2026 (UTC)
- Option B Per WP:LEAD this should be
a concise overview of the article's topic
. I think the other option won't be as concise nor as precise of an overview. In my opinion this option best matches the language used in the rest of the article. Dobblesteintalk 13:04, 21 February 2026 (UTC) - Option B. I agree with what others here have said regarding B - "trade event contracts" seems unclear to me, "speculate" is vague. B is the clearest and is easiest for the average reader to understand (MOS:FIRST). HeyElliott (talk) 02:01, 22 February 2026 (UTC)
- Option B: option A is impenetrable jargon, option C is potentially confusing and misleading, and the discussion below makes a strong case that option B is also well supported by reliable sources. Some people have suggested "trading bets" but this phrase is non-idiomatic. (More generally "making bets" is a reasonable description of a large fraction of financial market activity, so I'm having a lot of trouble understanding the objections to its use here for one particularly bet-like example.) ----JBL (talk) 20:33, 23 February 2026 (UTC)
- Option B. Option A is incomprehensible, whereas option C is vague if not outright misleading. Any social-media platform is a "place to speculate", in the most common meaning of "speculate". Stepwise Continuous Dysfunction (talk) 07:33, 26 February 2026 (UTC)
- Option B, per u:Stepwise Continuous Dysfunction. Alaexis¿question? 17:16, 7 March 2026 (UTC)
- Option B "Bet" or "wager" is closest to how the majority of sources describe it. Even Polymarket itself uses wording like "28% chance," implying a wager based on chance, like sports betting. If the majority of sources called E-Trade a betting site, we would call it that, too. Pyrrho the Skipper (talk) 16:29, 8 March 2026 (UTC)
Discussion
- In the section above Talk:Polymarket#Prediction betting markets we have been discussing some aspects of this per WP:RFCBEFORE. Some editors take the position that this (and other Prediction markets) are just new fangled betting sites, largely focused on sports betting. It does not appear to me that this is so, and thus using the term betting is pejorative. MOS:LEAD tell us that the lead should summarize, and we should pay particular attention to the first sentence. The summary that this is a betting (aka gambling) platform is not neutral nor is it even an accurate summary of the article. We should also look at the Prediction market article, as this article is one of the players in that space. Thanks! Jtbobwaysf (talk) 11:01, 10 February 2026 (UTC)
- trade event contracts is the most accurate description. I understand the motivation for the alternative position, but prediction markets involve trades on a wide range of future events, not just sports. Prediction markets are also the subject of serious academic research, so it does seem non-neutral to dismiss them as disguised forms of gambling, even if that is the primary motivation of a fraction of their users. Sir Paul (talk) 11:43, 10 February 2026 (UTC)
- Either position should be supported by what most of the RSIP sources say rather than some rhetoric.Czarking0 (talk) 14:35, 10 February 2026 (UTC)
- trade event contracts is inscrutable to a non-specialist reader, so Option A is unacceptable. Option B seems fine to me, but some here dislike it, accusing it of being a nn POV. As Czarking0 points out, the arguments on this should be based on the terminology of independent reliable sources. Chaste_Krassley summarized the terminology of already cited sources and finds good support for the use of "betting". I prefer Prediction betting market as it both usefully specifies the type of activity (betting) sorts of bets being made (on future events) and how bets are transacted (as a market) while avoiding the trade event contracts phrase which seems like a marketing term that obscures how prediction markets are akin to gambling. Groceryheist (talk) 15:22, 10 February 2026 (UTC)
- speculate is the term used in the first reference, https://www.cbinsights.com/company/polymarket. That's a more respectable, less pejorative term than "place bets" and it should be understood by most readers. "Betting" is clearly used in headlines by many sources but headlines are worded to get clicks not to communicate truth. There's nothing in the guidance that says we have to use the same words as sources, rather we should use the words that communicate most clearly. I think all these terms and more can be used in the article because they all can be found in reliable sources but this RFC is about the wording in the lead which I think should be the most easily understood and the most neutral. Since "speculate" isn't one of the options, I'd !vote for "place bets" due to it's much clearer (but non-neutral) meaning over the inscrutable "trade event contracts." I'm holding off on officially !voting for now. (invited randomly by a bot) Jojalozzo (talk) 18:21, 10 February 2026 (UTC)
- To be sure I understand you, is this the suggestion: "Launched in 2020, it offers a platform where individuals can speculate on future event outcomes."? Carleas (talk) 21:39, 10 February 2026 (UTC)
- To be clear, 'bet' is not just used in headlines, it is overwhelmingly the most common term in the body of articles for the activity on the platform. I just didn't examine the ones that used it in the headline closer (which were a minority, though a large one) because it was unnecessary to figure out whether they were using it as the most prominent term. If any editors would like to examine those articles themselves they're free to do so, though I'm very doubtful they'd find the word given less prominence than in the articles that don't use the term in the headline. Chaste Krassley (talk) 02:47, 11 February 2026 (UTC)
- I agree that speculate is a clear and neutral term. Hopefully this RfC can be amended to make it an option.--Eldomtom2 (talk) 19:58, 10 February 2026 (UTC)
- I added it, thanks for the suggestion. Jtbobwaysf (talk) 00:27, 11 February 2026 (UTC)
- It does seem that most sources refer to "bets", and the page for prediction market also refers to "bets" and provides "betting markets" as a synonym. However, "place bets" is inaccurate, or at least incomplete: a prediction market is a market, and market activity is not captured by the notion of placing bets. I somewhat agree with those who have criticized the phrase "trade event contracts", but it seems technically accurate; compare futures exchange: "A futures exchange or futures market is a central financial exchange where people can trade standardized futures contracts defined by the exchange." A possible compromise: Launched in 2020, it offers a platform where individuals can trade bets on future event outcomes. This mirrors language used in the article on prediction markets ("They are exchange-traded markets established for trading bets in the outcome of various events"), but also reflects sources' use of "bets". Carleas (talk) 21:36, 10 February 2026 (UTC)
- Perhaps "place and trade bets". – SJ + 18:18, 14 February 2026 (UTC)
- I think I'd prefer that we explain the TRADING of bets in the next sentence, which currently reads: "Participants can deposit USDC cryptocurrency through the Polygon blockchain network and trade shares that represent the likelihood of specific future outcomes." - Maybe this could be improved to explain the CREATION of an event futures contract (withOUT an underlying commodity), and then its tradeability before its event has occurred, and compare/contrast to standard futures contracts, which have an underlying commodity. ---Avatar317(talk) 00:14, 18 February 2026 (UTC)
- Perhaps "place and trade bets". – SJ + 18:18, 14 February 2026 (UTC)
- In the RFCBEFORE I went through the first six sources listed on the page and found they all used the term 'betting', almost all most prominently (and noted many others in the source list used the term in headlines) to argue it is the most common term to describe the activity on the platform. This time I have looked at every source on the source list (not bothering clicking through for the ones which use 'betting' in the headline). Several of the sources aren't in English and obviously not demonstrative of English language usage so I haven't examined them (though I note also these sources seem to be about the site being banned for unregistered gambling in European countries). A few are press releases or information pages from regulators and do not use the term (the US CFTC release describes them as unregistered swaps, though I'd note they also quote Polymarket as describing the activities offered as 'betting on your beliefs'; the Swiss GESPA simply calls it unlawful gambling; I was unable to access the Belgian Gaming Commission page but the title is 'Illegal Gambling Sites'; and the Massachussetts AG release uses 'wager' and 'bettors' while 'bet' as a verb is used not specifically in reference to prediction markets). A couple are official Polymarket pages or press releases, which do not use the term 'betting'. One is a news page not about Polymarket (that just serves as a source for Harris's VP pick). One, this Axios article, prefers 'contracts' and uses the term betting not specifically in reference to Polymarket/prediction markets. The Gambling Insider article about them being sued for alleged unregistered gaming does not use the term at all. The remaining 35 sources all use betting to describe the activity done on the platform (or even the platform itself as a 'betting market'), almost all as the most prominent term. This does not take into account source quality, but for an indication of the range of sources describing the activity in this way it includes WSJ, FT, NYT, Bloomberg, Forbes, NBC, CNN, Reuters, Politico, Guardian, and a different Axios article. If there is a problem with the use of the term 'betting' then that problem is with the entire English language news media, which means it's really not relevant to us here. Chaste Krassley (talk) 00:16, 11 February 2026 (UTC)
- When put 'speculation polymarket' into google books, I get 10 pages of results. When I put 'betting polymarket' I get one page of results, with the top result stating betting is restricted on the platform. You can have a look for yourself, so you dont have to believe my WP:OR. If I take your news research as fact, it would appear that the news RS are treating the subject differently than books RS. Thanks! Jtbobwaysf (talk) 23:02, 11 February 2026 (UTC)
- @Jtbobwaysf did you examine any of those sources for whether they are from reputable publishers, whether they use the term speculation in the broad sense or the financial one, whether they use the term about the activity on polymarket/prediction markets specifically, or whether they also use terms like "bet", "wager", or "gamble" and whether they do so more prominently? In the RFCBEFORE discussion you said you wanted to see how sources treat it (despite reverting edits before you had checked). After being shown that the sources we currently use prefer the term bet you are instead suggesting we need to rely on book sources (for no particular reason I can discern), but you haven't done any of the legwork to actually make it happen. I personally would be happy to do a closer look at the subject's treatment in book sources but I think if I did and found betting was actually the more common term you would just find a different reason to disagree, and I would be out a few hours of my time and staring down a new set of goalposts. Chaste Krassley (talk) 00:46, 12 February 2026 (UTC)
- The quantity of search results on the bottom of a Google search page is completely meaningless. If I put the term "polymarket", with quotation marks, it shows "10" pages, but actual results for me end on page 4. The majority of the results I get are either unreliable or have nothing to do with the Polymarket website. Many of them are from decades ago. Some are about polymer clays. Grayfell (talk) 00:51, 12 February 2026 (UTC)
- Yes, I did comment above in RFCBEFORE about my perception of the quality of the sources, you will see that above. I recall I referred to two of them as non-RS and a few of them also referred to the marketplace as a Prediction Market. The other editors were pushing forth the thesis that it wasn't any more than a new fangled sports betting website. Thus I felt the disagreement was so far apart that it would be more prudent to do an RFC on it. An editor above had referred to another market Kalshi that actually had piped in text to overwrite the term prediction market and call it a betting site, which i removed. Thus seemed better to discuss in a RFC format since the outcome might impact all three articles. At times Ray Dalio refers to making stock "bets" and other people would use the term "speculate" and others would invest. Is it a sports betting website or is it a new time of marketplace? I felt in this case it was possible the term bet was being used in the pejorative form (given the editors focus on sports betting as justification), and thus an NPOV issue. It appears from the early results of this RFC that I am not in the majority, however the matter isnt really one of counting low quality sources, it is more rather a policy of how we summarize the article in the LEAD. Are people using cryptocurrencies to bet, to speculate, to invest, to buy and sell contracts, etc? I suspect that question somehow relates to the framing of this overall discussion. Thanks! Jtbobwaysf (talk) 04:46, 12 February 2026 (UTC)
- I agree that it is a NPOV issue to push language not reflective of RS because of how it depicts the subject. Do you see the issue? Chaste Krassley (talk) 05:26, 12 February 2026 (UTC)
- Yes, I did comment above in RFCBEFORE about my perception of the quality of the sources, you will see that above. I recall I referred to two of them as non-RS and a few of them also referred to the marketplace as a Prediction Market. The other editors were pushing forth the thesis that it wasn't any more than a new fangled sports betting website. Thus I felt the disagreement was so far apart that it would be more prudent to do an RFC on it. An editor above had referred to another market Kalshi that actually had piped in text to overwrite the term prediction market and call it a betting site, which i removed. Thus seemed better to discuss in a RFC format since the outcome might impact all three articles. At times Ray Dalio refers to making stock "bets" and other people would use the term "speculate" and others would invest. Is it a sports betting website or is it a new time of marketplace? I felt in this case it was possible the term bet was being used in the pejorative form (given the editors focus on sports betting as justification), and thus an NPOV issue. It appears from the early results of this RFC that I am not in the majority, however the matter isnt really one of counting low quality sources, it is more rather a policy of how we summarize the article in the LEAD. Are people using cryptocurrencies to bet, to speculate, to invest, to buy and sell contracts, etc? I suspect that question somehow relates to the framing of this overall discussion. Thanks! Jtbobwaysf (talk) 04:46, 12 February 2026 (UTC)
- When put 'speculation polymarket' into google books, I get 10 pages of results. When I put 'betting polymarket' I get one page of results, with the top result stating betting is restricted on the platform. You can have a look for yourself, so you dont have to believe my WP:OR. If I take your news research as fact, it would appear that the news RS are treating the subject differently than books RS. Thanks! Jtbobwaysf (talk) 23:02, 11 February 2026 (UTC)
- Please review wikt:speculate#Verb before !voting for that. "Speculate" has a very common conversational meaning that has nothing to do with this website. Further, Polymarket has almost nothing at all to do with "Speculation" as a financial term, since Polymarket doesn't offer commodities, goods, or real estate. Having this term in the lead would make the article far, far too confusing. Many websites exist for people to discuss hypothetical scenarios Polymarket has nothing to do with that kind of speculation. The meaning of speculate being used here is just a mildly euphemistic word for gambling. WP:EUPHEMISMs are less neutral, not more. Grayfell (talk) 05:58, 11 February 2026 (UTC)
- It's incorrect to say that "Polymarket has almost nothing at all to do with "Speculation" as a financial term." Speculation refers to more than just "commodities, goods, or real estate", as that article makes clear in the next paragraph: "Speculators are particularly common in the markets for stocks, bonds, commodity futures, currencies, cryptocurrency, fine art, collectibles, real estate, and financial derivatives." The CTFC considers Polymarket a "designated contract market" ("DCM") , which it describes as comparable to "traditional futures exchanges" . That implies that DCMs are distinct from traditional futures exchanges, but also that they are a type of "financial derivative", for which the term "speculation" is commonly used. "Speculation" does have connotations of "gambling", but important differences that make it more accurate than "place bets" are 1) prices are determined by market activity (and not by a bookmaker), and 2) contracts can be both bought and sold, so participants can realize profits before the event occurs, and can profit even if the outcome of the event doesn't match their bet (e.g. by selling when the market thinks an outcome has become more likely, even if that outcome doesn't ultimately come to pass). Carleas (talk) 14:43, 11 February 2026 (UTC)
- Wikipedia is an encyclopedia. Specifically, it is an encyclopedia for a general audience.
- What the CFTC source
implies
is not relevant to this issue, because that is WP:SYNTH. Further, how the prices are set has almost nothing to do with whether or not this is betting. After all, the payout of a poker hand is determined by the "market activity" of the players of that particular hand. Polymarket presents itself as a more legitimate form of financial speculation, but it functionally treats cryptocurrency as a form of casino chips or the 'special prizes' of pachinko parlors. Using this financial-ish jargon in a Wikipedia article will not make the article any clearer to disinterested readers. Most sources currently in the article describe bets made on the site, because it's a betting platform. Finding some sources which mention 'speculation' ambiguously or in other contexts doesn't change the substance of what most of these sources are saying. Grayfell (talk) 00:26, 12 February 2026 (UTC) - The specifics of buying and selling contracts and how that works can be explained either later in the lead, or later in the body of the article; when teaching a subject, we start with the most simply understood explanation first before moving on to the specifics and nuance. ---Avatar317(talk) 00:48, 12 February 2026 (UTC)
- Wikpedia Speculation that says "In finance, speculation is the purchase of an asset (a commodity, goods, or real estate) with the hope that that asset will become more valuable in a brief amount of time." Why would we look at wictionary when we can look at wikipedia. Sounds like it exactly describes Polymarket and the other Prediction Marketplaces. Jtbobwaysf (talk) 04:46, 12 February 2026 (UTC)
- @Jtbobwaysf points out a useful characteristic of betting systems that afford exchanging bets (aka prediction markets). "Betting" might give the wrong idea, since the conventional betting systems people are most familiar with do not normally involve giving or selling one's net. Scratch tickets are kind of an exception (they can change in expected value as prizes are announced), but not normally called a "bet". So I guess "betting" should go in the lede, and make sure that the lede also introduce the concept of speculative betting or bet reselling. I think the current lede attempts this, but should be much clearer, perhaps invoking "speculation". Groceryheist (talk) 05:39, 12 February 2026 (UTC)
- Prediction Markets are exactly a marketplace for a predicted event. Its quite different from betting in the old sense, in that the bet (if we want to use that term) can be closed out before the event has culminated. This has always existed in trading of contracts, or options, or futures. And thus that is how it is explained on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange or Cboe Global Markets (which now owns BATS Global Markets). These sort of esoteric topics wouldn't be covered much in the mainstream press, but are something I know from my previous work life. Anyhow, my WP:OR isn't really useful here, so no to carry on much. I will just summarize to say that betting is not a term that a floor trader would use on the CME or the former CBOE. We would have used the term trading, buying, and selling. The public might more view it as betting, and hence the reason the newspapers want to sensationalize Prediction Markets to imply they are gambling. Generally this type of participation is skill based, so betting wouldn't be the correct term. But alas I digress and will stop. Jtbobwaysf (talk) 06:28, 12 February 2026 (UTC)
- Prediction markets are not that different. Gambling on or via skill-based games is still gambling. As far as I know, the most common name for "speculative betting" is just betting. Polymarket is arguably novel in some ways, but this is still entirely compatible with gambling. Determining the payout from the pool of bets is just a variation on parimutuel betting as opposed to having a bookmaker. Trading bets isn't novel, either. As one obvious example, horse racing used to use physical tickets which were often traded before races. It's still just gambling.
- As I said,
Polymarket doesn't offer commodities, goods, or real estate.
Instead, Polymarket facilitates gambling on real-world events. If those bets are connected to commodities, goods, or real estate, that's basically a coincidence as far as Polymarket is concerned. Legit commodities trading is at least distantly connected to actual commodities, and when it isn't, its a form of fraud. Polymarket isn't buying or selling actual commodities, so to conflate it with commodities trading is to indirectly imply that it's fraudulent. Instead, it's just betting. Just call it betting. Grayfell (talk) 06:40, 12 February 2026 (UTC)- Yes, you have essentially summarized the position of the betting or gambling wording advocates, that the exchange is fraudulent and deserves pejorative terms to describe it. I am opposed to this wording for this reason. It is incorrect to assume that trading requires some sort of formal legitimacy and barring that legitimacy it is a fraud and thus we should use pejorative terms to describe it. This is the very heart of an WP:5P2 problem. Jtbobwaysf (talk) 09:47, 12 February 2026 (UTC)
- Using confusing and euphemistic language like "trade event contracts" is less neutral. The article never explains what a "contract" is in this context. As used by Polymarket, it is type of bet which is fundamentally different from a futures contract in commodities trading. To create confusion about this in the first paragraph would be misleading and non-neutral. Grayfell (talk) 21:59, 12 February 2026 (UTC)
- @Jtbobwaysf: You seem to have completely mis-interpreted Grayfell's statememt:
Legit commodities trading is at least distantly connected to actual commodities, and when it isn't, its a form of fraud.
- Note my bolding. - In my opinion, it is YOUR interpretation of the word "betting" as being pejorative. I don't see it that way.
- It has often been said that EVERY trade on a stock, equities, or commodity is a bet; If I sell my Apple stock that is because I am BETTING that the cash I receive (or whatever I buy with that cash) will be a better investment than Apple stock, and someone buying Apple stock is BETTING that Apple stock will be more advantageous to hold than the currency (US dollars) they used to buy it. ---Avatar317(talk) 23:13, 12 February 2026 (UTC)
- Then use speculate if the technical term isn't desirable. Jtbobwaysf (talk) 23:22, 12 February 2026 (UTC)
- The issue with that is, per your own definition "Wikpedia Speculation that says "In finance, speculation is the purchase of an asset (a commodity, goods, or real estate) with the hope that that asset will become more valuable in a brief amount of time." describes actual physical objects. I can speculate that a cartridge of The Black Bass will increase in value, and until it does I still have use of it as a video game cartridge. The story of the Onion Futures Act of 1958 is worth a read as an example of how speculation and market manipulation had real world consequences. It's also worth noting that, per your own source, "Speculation often has a pejorative connotation" as well. DragonBrickLayer (talk) 02:29, 20 February 2026 (UTC)
- Then use speculate if the technical term isn't desirable. Jtbobwaysf (talk) 23:22, 12 February 2026 (UTC)
- Yes, you have essentially summarized the position of the betting or gambling wording advocates, that the exchange is fraudulent and deserves pejorative terms to describe it. I am opposed to this wording for this reason. It is incorrect to assume that trading requires some sort of formal legitimacy and barring that legitimacy it is a fraud and thus we should use pejorative terms to describe it. This is the very heart of an WP:5P2 problem. Jtbobwaysf (talk) 09:47, 12 February 2026 (UTC)
- Prediction Markets are exactly a marketplace for a predicted event. Its quite different from betting in the old sense, in that the bet (if we want to use that term) can be closed out before the event has culminated. This has always existed in trading of contracts, or options, or futures. And thus that is how it is explained on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange or Cboe Global Markets (which now owns BATS Global Markets). These sort of esoteric topics wouldn't be covered much in the mainstream press, but are something I know from my previous work life. Anyhow, my WP:OR isn't really useful here, so no to carry on much. I will just summarize to say that betting is not a term that a floor trader would use on the CME or the former CBOE. We would have used the term trading, buying, and selling. The public might more view it as betting, and hence the reason the newspapers want to sensationalize Prediction Markets to imply they are gambling. Generally this type of participation is skill based, so betting wouldn't be the correct term. But alas I digress and will stop. Jtbobwaysf (talk) 06:28, 12 February 2026 (UTC)
- @Jtbobwaysf points out a useful characteristic of betting systems that afford exchanging bets (aka prediction markets). "Betting" might give the wrong idea, since the conventional betting systems people are most familiar with do not normally involve giving or selling one's net. Scratch tickets are kind of an exception (they can change in expected value as prizes are announced), but not normally called a "bet". So I guess "betting" should go in the lede, and make sure that the lede also introduce the concept of speculative betting or bet reselling. I think the current lede attempts this, but should be much clearer, perhaps invoking "speculation". Groceryheist (talk) 05:39, 12 February 2026 (UTC)
- Is Polymarket differentiating itself / avoiding legal scrutiny by not actually/technically supporting "bets" in the traditional sense? That's something I don't quite understand and was trying to learn from the lead. If so, I we should perhaps use a different term in the description and then immediately compare/contrast their market to "bets". I still don't know and I think the article should easily answer that question. PK-WIKI (talk) 17:57, 18 February 2026 (UTC)
- I think it is just confusion on the part of the market, the sources, and it comes through here. Users are buying and selling contracts. But I think the editors above object to that language. Its no more betting that the trading that occurs on regulation options and futures exchanges around the world. I think they might also be called Exchange traded Cash settled Binary option contracts, or maybe the CFTC refers to them as Event contracts. I think there was a news piece on this yesterday CFTC release February 17, 2026. To my understanding the CFTC is asserting that it continues to think it is the correct regulator in the US. In this the CFTC is to my understanding stating it is a Commodity market at least in the US, under the Commodity Exchange Act. We might have some editors here who disagree with that treatment as well as those not from the US that might interpret it differently. Others I think are trying to follow consumer sources that saw that commodities are for betting, which normally industry sources would not use. Essentially if we follow the consumer sources they will refer to it as betting, as that is what general consumers read. But we also have issues where financial sources would probably refer to it differently, and we wouldn't use betting on more traditional financial instrument articles. Thanks! Jtbobwaysf (talk) 09:02, 19 February 2026 (UTC)
- I don't know of any futures exchanges/commodity markets that have been blacklisted by countries authorities that regulate gambling and sports betting as Ploymarket has. Even some state organs, such as the Nevada Gaming Control Board, have brought court cases that seek to prevent the platform from operating in their states without a gambling license. That suggests there's more to it than a simple misunderstanding between consumer/financial sources perspective or country differences. DragonBrickLayer (talk) 15:30, 19 February 2026 (UTC)
- sounds like different agencies seeking to regulate it and competing to do so. Jtbobwaysf (talk) 05:07, 20 February 2026 (UTC)
- I don't know of any futures exchanges/commodity markets that have been blacklisted by countries authorities that regulate gambling and sports betting as Ploymarket has. Even some state organs, such as the Nevada Gaming Control Board, have brought court cases that seek to prevent the platform from operating in their states without a gambling license. That suggests there's more to it than a simple misunderstanding between consumer/financial sources perspective or country differences. DragonBrickLayer (talk) 15:30, 19 February 2026 (UTC)
- I think it is just confusion on the part of the market, the sources, and it comes through here. Users are buying and selling contracts. But I think the editors above object to that language. Its no more betting that the trading that occurs on regulation options and futures exchanges around the world. I think they might also be called Exchange traded Cash settled Binary option contracts, or maybe the CFTC refers to them as Event contracts. I think there was a news piece on this yesterday CFTC release February 17, 2026. To my understanding the CFTC is asserting that it continues to think it is the correct regulator in the US. In this the CFTC is to my understanding stating it is a Commodity market at least in the US, under the Commodity Exchange Act. We might have some editors here who disagree with that treatment as well as those not from the US that might interpret it differently. Others I think are trying to follow consumer sources that saw that commodities are for betting, which normally industry sources would not use. Essentially if we follow the consumer sources they will refer to it as betting, as that is what general consumers read. But we also have issues where financial sources would probably refer to it differently, and we wouldn't use betting on more traditional financial instrument articles. Thanks! Jtbobwaysf (talk) 09:02, 19 February 2026 (UTC)
Proposed external link: pm.wiki
I'd like to propose adding pm.wiki as an external link to this article.
pm.wiki is an independent, non-commercial directory of over 360 prediction market platforms and tools. It provides third-party reviews, comparisons, and categorized listings of platforms including Polymarket, making it a useful supplementary resource for readers seeking to explore the broader prediction market ecosystem. I believe it meets WP:ELYES criteria as a comprehensive, reliable third-party resource that provides information relevant to understanding the subject but not easily integrated into the article body.
The site is independent and non-commercial in nature, with no conflicts of interest regarding the subjects covered. It has been referenced by a growing community of researchers and practitioners.
Looking for consensus before re-adding. Feedback welcome. PredMarkWik (talk) 02:11, 11 March 2026 (UTC)
- This link is not a wiki specific to Polymarket. It might be a better fit on another article. Pyrrho the Skipper (talk) 02:28, 11 March 2026 (UTC)
- This does not appear to official nor authoritative. Oppose. --FeldBum (talk) 16:20, 12 March 2026 (UTC)
- Pardon me asking, but given your handle, do you have any connection with the website? Just want to make sure there isn't a WP: COI issue here. DragonBrickLayer (talk) 11:15, 13 March 2026 (UTC)
- This is just a spam request made via an LLM. The link doesn't belong here or anywhere else on Wikipedia. Grayfell (talk) 02:10, 18 March 2026 (UTC)
- I have have added a few dots to the link above, as I believe that a link on the talk page is also useful for their SEO efforts. Thanks! Jtbobwaysf (talk) 03:00, 18 March 2026 (UTC)
- I doubt it, all external links on Wikipedia are nofollow per Wikipedia:Search engine optimization. The best they could hope for having the link here is luring traffic visiting this specific page to the site, which wouldn't help SEO at all. DragonBrickLayer (talk) 10:11, 18 March 2026 (UTC)
- no follow links are useful for seo Jtbobwaysf (talk) 11:48, 18 March 2026 (UTC)
- I doubt it, all external links on Wikipedia are nofollow per Wikipedia:Search engine optimization. The best they could hope for having the link here is luring traffic visiting this specific page to the site, which wouldn't help SEO at all. DragonBrickLayer (talk) 10:11, 18 March 2026 (UTC)
- I have have added a few dots to the link above, as I believe that a link on the talk page is also useful for their SEO efforts. Thanks! Jtbobwaysf (talk) 03:00, 18 March 2026 (UTC)
Proposed external link: Polyguana
I'd like to propose adding Polyguana as an external link to this article.
Polyguana is an independent analytics platform providing market-level intelligence for Polymarket — including market rankings, price discovery analysis, and resolved market archives covering 3,800+ markets. It provides research-oriented data relevant to understanding how Polymarket operates. I believe it meets WP:ELYES criteria as a comprehensive, reliable third-party resource that provides information relevant to understanding the subject but not easily integrated into the article body.
The site is independent and non-commercial in nature, with no conflicts of interest regarding the subjects covered. It has been referenced by a growing community of researchers and practitioners.
Looking for consensus before re-adding. Feedback welcome. PredMarkWik (talk) 02:12, 11 March 2026 (UTC)
- The link you're suggesting seems like a somewhat esoteric resource for users of Polymarket, not a general audience link for encyclopedic information. ELs are generally minimal on WP. See Coinbase for an example. Pyrrho the Skipper (talk) 02:31, 11 March 2026 (UTC)
- Oppose. Does not seem official. --FeldBum (talk) 16:21, 12 March 2026 (UTC)