2002 United States Senate election in Texas
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The 2002 United States Senate election in Texas was held on November 5, 2002. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Phil Gramm decided to retire, instead of seeking a fourth term. State Attorney General Republican John Cornyn won the open seat. This was the first open-seat election since 1984.
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November 5, 2002
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  Cornyn: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Kirk: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% | |||||||||||||||||
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Republican primary
Polling
Henry Bonilla vs. John Cornyn vs. Tony Garza vs. David Dewhurst
Henry Bonilla vs. David Dewhurst
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | John Cornyn | 478,825 | 77.3 | |
| Republican | Bruce Rusty Lang | 46,907 | 7.6 | |
| Republican | Douglas Deffenbaugh | 43,611 | 7.0 | |
| Republican | Dudley F. Mooney | 32,202 | 5.2 | |
| Republican | Lawrence Cranberg | 17,757 | 2.9 | |
| Total votes | 619,302 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic primary
- Ron Kirk, Mayor of Dallas
- Victor Morales, Teacher, Navy Veteran, 1996 Senate nominee
- Ken Bentsen Jr., U.S. representative, nephew of former US Senator Lloyd Bentsen
Primary
- Kirk—60–70%
- Kirk—50–60%
- Kirk—40–50%
- Kirk—30–40%
- Kirk—20–30%
- Morales—70–80%
- Morales—60–70%
- Morales—50–60%
- Morales—40–50%
- Morales—30–40%
- Bentsen—70–80%
- Bentsen—60–70%
- Bentsen—50–60%
- Bentsen—40–50%
- Bentsen—30–40%
- Morales-Bentsen tie—30–40%
- Kirk-Bentsen tie—32.08%
- No vote
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Victor M. Morales | 317,048 | 33.2 | |
| Democratic | Ron Kirk | 316,052 | 33.1 | |
| Democratic | Ken Bentsen | 255,501 | 26.8 | |
| Democratic | Gene Kelly | 44,038 | 4.6 | |
| Democratic | Ed Cunningham | 22,016 | 2.3 | |
| Total votes | 954,655 | 100.0 | ||
Runoff
- Kirk—80–90%
- Kirk—70–80%
- Kirk—60–70%
- Kirk—50–60%
- Morales—80–90%
- Morales—70–80%
- Morales—60–70%
- Morales—50–60%
- tie—50%
- No vote
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Ron Kirk | 370,878 | 59.8 | |
| Democratic | Victor M. Morales | 249,423 | 40.2 | |
| Total votes | 620,301 | 100.0 | ||
General election
Campaign
Despite the fact that Texas is a red state, Kirk ran on a socially progressive platform: supporting abortion rights and opposing Bush judicial nominee Priscilla Richman, although Kirk was a former George W. Bush supporter.[3] He also supported increases in defense spending, such as Bush's proposed $48 billion increase in military spending, except for the money Bush wanted to use for missile defense.[4] Cornyn was endorsed by U.S. president and former Governor George W. Bush, while Kirk had the support of former San Antonio mayor Henry Cisneros, former Governor Ann Richards and former U.S. Senator Lloyd Bentsen.[5][6]
Cornyn was criticized for taking campaign money from Enron and other controversial companies.[7] And although other Democrats have seized on the issue, Kirk is well-entrenched in the Dallas business community, and his wife resigned from two private-sector jobs that created potential conflicts of interest for Kirk while he was mayor.[8]
An October Dallas Morning News poll had Cornyn leading 47% to 37%.[9] A record $18 million was spent in the election.[10]
Debates
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Democratic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
||||||
| John Cornyn | Ron Kirk | |||||
| 1 | Oct. 18, 2002 | Houston Chronicle KHOU |
Greg Hurst | C-SPAN[11] | P | P |
| 2 | Oct. 23, 2002 | Freedom of Information Foundation of Texas Hispanic Broadcasting Corporation KERA-TV Texas Association of Broadcasters Texas Monthly The Dallas Morning News TXCN Univision WFAA |
John McCaa | C-SPAN[12] | P | P |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[13] | Lean R | November 4, 2002 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
John Cornyn (R) |
Ron Kirk (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby International/MSNBC[14] | November 3–4, 2002 | – (V) | – | 50% | 46% | – | 4% |
| Zogby International/MSNBC[15][16] | October 30 – November 2, 2002 | – (V) | ± 4.5% | 49% | 48% | – | 3% |
| Blum & Weprin Associates Inc.[17][A] | October 29 – November 1, 2002 | 1,002 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 41% | 9% | |
| University of Houston/ Rice University[18][B] |
Late–October 2002 | 656 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 45% | 39% | – | 10% |
| SurveyUSA[19][C] | October 29–31, 2002 | 683 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 53% | 45% | 2% | |
| Scripps-Howard[20] | October 7–29, 2002 | 1,000 (A) | ± 4.3% | 44% | 35% | – | 21% |
| Frank N. Magid Associates, Inc.[21][D] | October 21–27, 2002 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 43% | 40% | – | 15% |
| SurveyUSA[22] | October 21–23, 2002 | 604 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 52% | 45% | 3% | |
| Frank N. Magid Associates, Inc.[23][D] | October 15–20, 2002 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 46% | 36% | – | 16% |
| Frank N. Magid Associates, Inc.[24][D] | October 8–13, 2002 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 46% | 36% | – | 16% |
| Zogby International/MSNBC[25] | October 9–11, 2002 | – (V) | – | 45% | 37% | – | 18% |
| Frank N. Magid Associates, Inc.[26][D] | September 30 – October 6, 2002 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 56% | 30% | – | 14% |
| FM3 Research (D)[27][28][E] | September 22–24, 2002 | – (V) | ± 3.6 | 35% | 39% | – | 26% |
| Zogby International/MSNBC[27] | September 17–18, 2002 | – | – | 42% | 30% | – | 28% |
| University of Houston/ Rice University[29][B] |
September 3–15, 2002 | 879 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 42% | 36% | – | 22% |
| Scripps-Howard[30] | August 7–27, 2002 | 756 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 37% | 32% | – | 30% |
| Montgomery & Associates (D)[27] | July 31 – August 7, 2002 | – | – | 46% | 46% | – | 8% |
| University of Houston/ Rice University[31][B] |
June 20–29, 2002 | 739 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 28% | 36% | – | 36% |
| Scripps-Howard[32] | May 20 – June 9, 2002 | 668 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 35% | 30% | – | 33% |
| Montgomery & Associates (D)[33] | May 7–13, 2002 | 1,066 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 44% | – | 10% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | John Cornyn | 2,496,243 | 55.30% | +0.52% | |
| Democratic | Ron Kirk | 1,955,758 | 43.33% | −0.61% | |
| Libertarian | Scott Jameson | 35,538 | 0.79% | −0.14% | |
| Green | Roy Williams | 25,051 | 0.55% | N/A | |
| Write-in | James W. Wright | 1,422 | 0.03% | N/A | |
| Majority | 540,485 | 11.97% | +1.13% | ||
| Turnout | 4,514,012 | ||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Atascosa (Largest city: Pleasanton)
- Bastrop (Largest city: Elgin)
- Brewster (Largest city: Alpine)
- Cottle (Largest city: Paducah)
- Fannin (Largest city: Bonham)
- Galveston (Largest city: Galveston)
- Knox (Largest city: Munday)
- Milam (Largest city: Rockdale)
- Palo Pinto (Largest city: Mineral Wells)
- Red River (Largest city: Clarksville)
- Stonewall (Largest city: Aspermont)
- Trinity (Largest city: Trinity)
- Waller (Largest city: Hempstead)
- Robertson (Largest city: Hearne)
- Bexar (largest city: San Antonio)
- Calhoun (largest city: Port Lavaca)
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Pecos (Largest city: Fort Stockton)
- San Augustine (Largest city: San Augustine)
- San Patricio (Largest city: Portland)
- Hudspeth (Largest city: Fort Hancock)
- Refugio (Largest city: Refugio)
- Dallas (largest city: Dallas)
See also
Notes
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
Partisan clients
- Poll conducted for The Dallas Morning News
- Poll conducted for The Houston Chronicle and KHOU-TV
- Poll sponsored by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee