2014 United States Senate election in Kansas
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The 2014 United States Senate election in Kansas was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Kansas, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.
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November 4, 2014
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  Roberts: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Orman: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Republican Senator Pat Roberts was re-elected to a fourth term against Independent Greg Orman and Libertarian nominee Randall Batson. The Democratic nominee, Chad Taylor, withdrew from the race.
Republican primary
Roberts gained negative press attention after criticism that he did not own a home in Kansas, with some comparing the situation to that of former Indiana Senator Richard Lugar, who lost a 2012 Senate primary after a similar residency controversy.[1] Roberts owns a home in Alexandria, Virginia.[2] The primary was held on August 5, 2014.[3]
Primary opponent Milton R. Wolf, a radiologist, was under investigation by a state medical ethics board for posting X-ray images of dead patients with macabre commentary to Facebook.[4]
Candidates
Declared
- Pat Roberts, incumbent senator[5]
- D.J. Smith, former Osawatomie city councilwoman[6]
- Milton R. Wolf, radiologist, conservative commentator and Barack Obama's second cousin[7]
- Alvin Zahnter, truck driver and Vietnam War veteran[6]
Declined
- Tim Huelskamp, U.S. representative (re-elected to House)[8]
- Kris Kobach, secretary of state of Kansas (re-elected as secretary of state)[8][9]
- Dennis Pyle, state senator[10][11]
- Todd Tiahrt, former U.S. representative (ran for KS-04)[12][13]
Endorsements
Pat Roberts
- Statewide officials
- Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida[14]
- Sarah Palin, former governor of Alaska and 2008 Republican nominee for vice president of the United States[14]
Milton Wolf
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Pat Roberts |
D.J. Smith |
Milton Wolf |
Alvin Zahnter |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Tarrance Group^[20] | January 13–15, 2014 | 501 | ± 4.5% | 69% | — | 15% | — | — | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling[21] | February 18–20, 2014 | 375 | ± 5.1% | 49% | — | 23% | — | — | 28% |
| SurveyUSA[22] | June 19–23, 2014 | 508 | ± 4.4% | 56% | — | 23% | — | 8% | 12% |
| GEB International[23] | July 9, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.28% | 42% | — | 30% | — | — | 28% |
| SurveyUSA[24] | July 17–22, 2014 | 691 | ± 3.8% | 50% | 6% | 30% | 3% | — | 12% |
| Daily Kos/Google Consumer Surveys[25] | August 4, 2014 | 1,002 | ± 3.1% | 53.4% | — | 39.1% | — | — | 7.5% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Pat Roberts |
Someone more conservative |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[21] | February 18–20, 2014 | 375 | ± 5.1% | 43% | 39% | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling[26] | February 21–24, 2013 | 760 | ± 3.6% | 42% | 34% | 24% |
- ^ Internal poll for the Pat Roberts campaign
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Pat Roberts |
Tim Huelskamp |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[26] | February 21–24, 2013 | 760 | ± 3.6% | 53% | 22% | 26% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Pat Roberts |
Kris Kobach |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[26] | February 21–24, 2013 | 760 | ± 3.6% | 55% | 19% | 26% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Pat Roberts |
Todd Tiahrt |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[26] | February 21–24, 2013 | 760 | ± 3.6% | 47% | 26% | 27% |
Results
Roberts
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
Wolf
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Pat Roberts (incumbent) | 127,089 | 48.08% | |
| Republican | Milton Wolf | 107,799 | 40.78% | |
| Republican | D.J. Smith | 15,288 | 5.78% | |
| Republican | Alvin E. Zahnter | 13,935 | 5.26% | |
| Total votes | 264,340 | 100.00% | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Chad Taylor, Shawnee County district attorney[28][29]
- Patrick Wiesner, attorney and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010[6]
Declined
Polling
Results
Taylor
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
Wiesner
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
Tie
- 50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Chad Taylor | 35,067 | 53.3% | |
| Democratic | Patrick Wiesner | 30,752 | 46.7% | |
| Total votes | 65,819 | 100.0% | ||
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Declared
- Randall Batson, nominee for the State House in 2012[34]
Independents
Candidates
Declared
- Greg Orman, businessman, briefly ran in the Democratic primary in 2008 before dropping out[35][36]
General election
Campaign
Republicans were worried about Roberts' campaign in August 2014, perceiving it as lethargic and inactive, that Roberts had a low favorability rating, and that internal polling suggested the race was rather close. At the behest of Senate Minority leader Mitch McConnell as well as former Senator Bob Dole, Roberts fired his longtime campaign manager Leroy Towns in early September 2014. Chris LaCivita was brought in to revamp the race, and LaCivita protege Corry Bliss replaced Towns as campaign manager. Bliss urged Roberts focus on a strategy of tying Orman to President Obama at every turn, as Obama had low favorability ratings in Kansas. Roberts also began spending more time in Kansas, living in a hotel in Topeka rather than his home in Alexandria, Virginia.[37][38]
On September 3, Democratic nominee Chad Taylor withdrew from the race.[39] On September 4, Kris Kobach, the Republican Kansas Secretary of State, announced that Taylor would remain on the ballot because state law demands he declare himself "incapable of fulfilling the duties of office if elected" in order to be removed, which he did not do.[40] Taylor challenged the decision, and on September 18 the Kansas Supreme Court decided that his name would be taken off the ballot.[41]
On the same day, Kobach demanded the chairman of the Democratic Party name a replacement in eight days, saying he would consider litigation to force the party if they refused.[42]
A registered Democrat with family ties to Republican Governor Sam Brownback's campaign also filed a petition with the Kansas Supreme Court on September 18 to force the Democratic Party to name a new candidate.[43] Kobach ordered ballots to be mailed to overseas voters on September 20 without a Democratic candidate, but included a disclaimer that another ballot will be sent if the Democratic Party names a replacement candidate.[44]
The state district court in Shawnee County threw out the petition, meaning no replacement for Taylor needed to be named.[45]
The efforts by Bliss and other Republican strategists would ultimately prove successful. Roberts' polling improved in October. Roberts defeated Orman in the general election, winning reelection to a fourth term in office.[37]
If Orman had been elected, the U.S. Senate would have had three independent senators for the first time in the chamber's history. This—and the question of whom Orman would choose to caucus with if elected—were large questions in the electoral contest, and because the Kansas race was showing tight in the polls, a subject of considerable national political discourse as well.[46]
Fundraising
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on Hand | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Orman (I) | $2,461,766 | $3,298,186 | $183,599 | $1,124,982 |
| Pat Roberts (R) | $5,383,491 | $5,534,415 | $927,449 | 0 |
Debates
- Complete video of debate, October 8, 2014
- Complete video of debate, October 15, 2014
Endorsements
Greg Orman (I)
Individuals
- Tim Owens, Republican former state senator[47]
- Jim Sherow, former mayor of Manhattan and Democratic nominee for KS-01[48]
Organizations
- AFL-CIO[49]
- The Centrist Project[50]
- Human Rights Campaign[51]
- Traditional Republicans for Common Sense[52]
- Women for Kansas[53]
Pat Roberts (R)
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[58] | Tossup | November 3, 2014 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[59] | Lean R | November 3, 2014 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[60] | Tossup | November 3, 2014 |
| Real Clear Politics[61] | Tossup | November 3, 2014 |
Polling
View source data.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Pat Roberts (R) |
Chad Taylor (D) |
Greg Orman (I) |
Randall Batson (L) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[21] | February 18–20, 2014 | 693 | ± 3.7% | 48% | 32% | — | — | — | 20% |
| Rasmussen Reports[62] | April 16–17, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 50% | 32% | — | — | 5% | 13% |
| SurveyUSA[63] | June 19–23, 2014 | 1068 | ± 3.1% | 43% | 33% | 7% | 5% | — | 12% |
| SurveyUSA[64] | July 17–22, 2014 | 1,208 | ± 2.9% | 38% | 33% | 14% | 4% | — | 10% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[65] | July 5–24, 2014 | 1,281 | ± 6.1% | 53% | 37% | — | — | 7% | 4% |
| Rasmussen Reports[62] | August 6–7, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 44% | 40% | — | — | 7% | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling[66] | August 14–17, 2014 | 903 | ± 3.3% | 32% | 25% | 23% | 3% | — | 17% |
| 43% | 39% | — | — | — | 17% | ||||
| 33% | — | 43% | — | — | 24% | ||||
| KSN News/SurveyUSA[67] | August 20–23, 2014 | 560 | ± 4.2% | 37% | 32% | 20% | 4% | — | 6% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[68] | August 18 – September 2, 2014 | 839 | ± 5% | 47% | 35% | — | — | 2% | 15% |
| KSN News/SurveyUSA[69] | September 4–7, 2014 | 555 | ± 4.2% | 36% | 10% | 37% | 6% | — | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling[70] | September 11–14, 2014 | 1,328 | ± 2.7% | 34% | 6%[a] | 41% | 4% | — | 15% |
| 36% | — | 46% | — | — | 17% | ||||
| Fox News[72] | September 14–16, 2014 | 604 | ± 4% | 40% | 11%[b] | 38% | 4% | — | 8% |
| 42% | — | 48% | — | — | 8% | ||||
| Rasmussen Reports[62] | September 16–17, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 40% | 3%[c] | 45% | — | 2% | 10% |
| 39% | 9%[d] | 38% | — | 2% | 12% | ||||
| Remington Research[73] | September 23, 2014 | 625 | ± 3.91% | 42% | — | 50% | 3% | — | 5% |
| Suffolk University[74] | September 27–30, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 41.2% | — | 46.4% | 0.8% | — | 11.6% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[75] | September 20 – October 1, 2014 | 2,013 | ± 3% | 40% | — | 40% | 2% | 0% | 17% |
| NBC News/Marist[76] | September 27 – October 1, 2014 | 511 LV | ± 4.3% | 38% | — | 48% | 5% | 1% | 9% |
| 848 RV | ± 3.4% | 36% | — | 46% | 5% | 1% | 12% | ||
| Gravis Marketing[77] | September 30 – October 1, 2014 | 850 | ± 3% | 40% | — | 47% | — | — | 13% |
| SurveyUSA[78] | October 2–5, 2014 | 549 | ± 4.3% | 42% | — | 47% | 4% | — | 7% |
| CNN/ORC[79] | October 2–6, 2014 | 687 | ± 3.5% | 49% | — | 48% | — | — | 3% |
| Fox News[80] | October 4–7, 2014 | 702 | ± 3.5% | 44% | — | 39% | 3% | 4% | 12% |
| Rasmussen Reports[81] | October 7–8, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 40% | — | 52% | — | 4% | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling[82] | October 9–12, 2014 | 1,081 | ± 3% | 41% | — | 44% | 5% | — | 10% |
| 43% | — | 46% | — | — | 11% | ||||
| Remington Research[83] | October 9–12, 2014 | 1,091 | ± 2.97% | 48% | — | 46% | 2% | — | 4% |
| Monmouth University[84] | October 16–19, 2014 | 429 | ± 4.7% | 46% | — | 46% | — | 3% | 5% |
| Rasmussen Reports[62] | October 20–21, 2014 | 960 | ± 3% | 44% | — | 49% | — | 3% | 5% |
| Gravis Marketing[85] | October 20–21, 2014 | 1,124 | ± 3% | 45% | — | 47% | — | — | 8% |
| NBC News/Marist[86] | October 18–22, 2014 | 757 LV | ± 3.6% | 44% | — | 45% | 4% | <1% | 7% |
| 1,055 RV | ± 3% | 42% | — | 45% | 4% | 1% | 9% | ||
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[75] | October 16–23, 2014 | 1,973 | ± 4% | 42% | — | 38% | 1% | 0% | 18% |
| Survey USA[87] | October 22–26, 2014 | 623 | ± 4% | 42% | — | 44% | 4% | — | 10% |
| Fox News[88] | October 28–30, 2014 | 907 | ± 3% | 43% | — | 44% | 3% | 1% | 8% |
| YouGov[89] | October 25–31, 2014 | 1,137 | ± 4.8% | 38% | — | 37% | 2% | 2% | 22% |
| Public Policy Polling[90] | October 30–31, 2014 | 752 | ± ? | 47% | — | 46% | 3% | — | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling[91] | November 1–3, 2014 | 963 | ± 3.2% | 46% | — | 47% | 3% | — | 4% |
| 47% | — | 49% | — | — | 3% |
Hypothetical polling
With Huelskamp
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tim Huelskamp (R) |
Carl Brewer (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[26] | February 21–24, 2013 | 1,229 | ± 2.8% | 40% | 36% | — | 24% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tim Huelskamp (R) |
Mark Parkinson (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[26] | February 21–24, 2013 | 1,229 | ± 2.8% | 41% | 35% | — | 24% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tim Huelskamp (R) |
Kathleen Sebelius (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[26] | February 21–24, 2013 | 1,229 | ± 2.8% | 46% | 41% | — | 13% |
With Roberts
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Pat Roberts (R) |
Carl Brewer (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[26] | February 21–24, 2013 | 1,229 | ± 2.8% | 50% | 34% | — | 16% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Pat Roberts (R) |
Mark Parkinson (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[26] | February 21–24, 2013 | 1,229 | ± 2.8% | 49% | 34% | — | 17% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Pat Roberts (R) |
Kathleen Sebelius (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports[62] | April 16–17, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 54% | 37% | 5% | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling[21] | February 18–20, 2014 | 693 | ± 3.7% | 52% | 38% | — | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling[26] | February 21–24, 2013 | 1,229 | ± 2.8% | 51% | 40% | — | 9% |
With Wolf
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Milton Wolf (R) |
Kathleen Sebelius (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[21] | February 18–20, 2014 | 693 | ± 3.7% | 46% | 39% | — | 15% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Milton Wolf (R) |
Chad Taylor (D) |
Randall Batson (L) |
Greg Orman (I) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[21] | February 18–20, 2014 | 693 | ± 3.7% | 33% | 32% | — | — | — | 35% |
| SurveyUSA[63] | June 19–23, 2014 | 1068 | ± 3.1% | 33% | 36% | 6% | 7% | — | 18% |
| SurveyUSA[24] | July 17–22, 2014 | 1,208 | ± 2.9% | 33% | 34% | 5% | 14% | — | 14% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Pat Roberts (incumbent) | 460,350 | 53.15% | −6.91% | |
| Independent | Greg Orman | 368,372 | 42.53% | N/A | |
| Libertarian | Randall Batson | 37,469 | 4.32% | +2.20% | |
| Total votes | 866,191 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
|
Independent
Flip |
Republican
Hold
Flip
|
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Independent
- Douglas (largest city: Lawrence)
- Wyandotte (largest city: Kansas City)
Counties that flipped from Republican to Independent
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
By congressional district
Roberts won three of four congressional districts, with Orman winning the remaining one, which elected a Republican.[93]
| District | Roberts | Orman | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 63% | 32% | Tim Huelskamp |
| 2nd | 49% | 46% | Lynn Jenkins |
| 3rd | 47% | 50% | Kevin Yoder |
| 4th | 54% | 41% | Mike Pompeo |
See also
Notes
- Poll did not tell respondents that Taylor had withdrawn.
- Rasmussen does not specify whether respondents were given the option of voting for a withdrawn Taylor, or they specifically named him.
- With Taylor still listed on the ballot