2018 United States Senate election in Maryland
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The 2018 United States Senate election in Maryland took place on November 6, 2018, in order to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Maryland. It was held concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Ben Cardin was re-elected to a third and ultimately final term by a landslide margin of almost 35 points, the largest margin in any election for this seat since Maryland began holding direct elections for Senate in 1913.
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November 6, 2018
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| Turnout | 58.17%  10.03 pp | ||||||||||||||||
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   Cardin: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Campbell: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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The primary election for the Senate race was held on June 26, 2018.[1] The incumbent, Ben Cardin, won the Democratic Party primary. In the general election, Cardin was reelected to a third term.[2] Tony Campbell, a professor of political science at Towson University and former Army chaplain, won the Republican Party primary. If elected, Campbell would have become Maryland's first African American U.S. Senator.[3][4] Businessman Neal Simon ran as an independent, and Arvin Vohra was the Libertarian Party nominee in the general election. There were also several official write-in candidates. With Republican governor Larry Hogan winning re-election in the same year, this was the first election since 1974 in which Maryland simultaneously voted for a gubernatorial nominee and a U.S. Senate nominee of opposite parties.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Ben Cardin, incumbent U.S. senator[5][6]
- Erik Jetmir[5][6]
- Chelsea Manning, whistleblower, convicted of Espionage Act crimes, former U.S. Army soldier[5][6][7][8]
- Marcia H. Morgan,[5] of Montgomery County[9]
- Jerome Segal, political activist and philosopher[5][6]
- Richard "Rikki" Vaughn,[5][6] of Baltimore[10]
- Debbie "Rica" Wilson, candidate for MD-05 in 2016,[5] of White Plains[10]
- Lih Young, perennial candidate,[5] of Montgomery County[9]
Declined
- Elijah Cummings, U.S. representative[11]
- John Delaney, U.S. representative (running for president in 2020)[12]
- Donna Edwards, former U.S. representative and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016 (running for Prince George's county executive)[13]
- Heather Mizeur, former state delegate[11]
- John Sarbanes, U.S. representative[11]
Endorsements
Ben Cardin
Organizations
- AFSCME Maryland Council 3[14]
- League of Conservation Voters[15]
- Natural Resources Defense Council Action Fund[16]
- Sierra Club[17]
Newspapers
Chelsea Manning
Individuals
- Jimmy Dore, comedian and political commentator[19]
- Linda Sarsour, activist and co-chair of the Women's March[20]
- Natalie Wynn, YouTube creator[21]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ben Cardin |
Chelsea Manning |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goucher College[22] | February 12–18, 2018 | 409 | ± 4.8% | 61% | 17% | 3% | 19% |
Results
Cardin
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Ben Cardin (incumbent) | 447,441 | 79.24% | |
| Democratic | Chelsea Manning | 34,611 | 6.13% | |
| Democratic | Jerome Segal | 20,027 | 3.55% | |
| Democratic | Debbie Wilson | 18,953 | 3.36% | |
| Democratic | Marcia H. Morgan | 16,047 | 2.84% | |
| Democratic | Lih Young | 9,874 | 1.75% | |
| Democratic | Richard Vaughn | 9,480 | 1.68% | |
| Democratic | Erik Jetmir | 8,259 | 1.46% | |
| Total votes | 564,692 | 100.00% | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Tony Campbell,[5] of Baltimore County,[9] political science faculty member at Towson University[24]
- Chris Chaffee,[5] candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016[25]
- Evan M. Cronhardt,[5] of Anne Arundel County
- Nnabu Eze,[5] of Baltimore County,[9] Green nominee for MD-03 in 2016[26]
- John Graziani, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016 and candidate for MD-04 in 2014[5]
- Christina J. Grigorian, attorney[5]
- Albert Howard[5]
- Bill Krehnbrink, perennial candidate[5]
- Gerald I. Smith, Jr., conspiracy theorist,[5] of Cecil County[9]
- Blaine Taylor, perennial candidate,[5] of Baltimore County[9]
- Brian Charles Vaeth, perennial candidate[5]
Withdrew
Declined
- Larry Hogan, governor of Maryland since 2015 (running for reelection)
Endorsements
Tony Campbell
State legislators[29]
- Gail H. Bates, state senator
- Wendell R. Beitzel, state delegate
- Andrew Cassilly, state delegate
- Robert G. Cassilly, state senator
- Barrie Ciliberti, state delegate
- Joe Cluster, state delegate
- Ron George, former state delegate
- Glen Glass, state delegate
- Robin L. Grammer, Jr., state delegate
- Michael Hough, state senator
- J. B. Jennings, state senator
- Nic Kipke, state delegate
- Susan W. Krebs, state delegate
- Susan K. McComas, state delegate
- Pat McDonough, state delegate
- Richard W. Metzgar, state delegate
- Christian Miele, state delegate
- Neil Parrott, state delegate
- Edward R. Reilly, state senator
- Johnny Ray Salling, state senator
- Chris West, state delegate
- William J. Wivell, state delegate
Individuals
- Ellen Sauerbrey, former Assistant Secretary of State for Population, Refugees, and Migration[30]
- Joseph E. Schmitz, former DoD Inspector General[31]
- Michael Steele, former RNC chairman and former lieutenant governor of Maryland[32]
Sam Faddis (withdrew)
State senators
- Robert Cassilly, state senator[33]
- Edward R. Reilly, state senator[33]
Individuals
- Paul Becker, retired United States Navy admiral[33]
Results
Campbell
- <40%
Chaffee
- <40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Tony Campbell | 51,426 | 29.22% | |
| Republican | Chris Chaffee | 42,328 | 24.05% | |
| Republican | Christina J. Grigorian | 30,786 | 17.49% | |
| Republican | John Graziani | 15,435 | 8.77% | |
| Republican | Blaine Taylor | 8,848 | 5.03% | |
| Republican | Gerald I. Smith, Jr. | 7,564 | 4.30% | |
| Republican | Brian Vaeth | 5,411 | 3.08% | |
| Republican | Evan M. Cronhardt | 4,445 | 2.53% | |
| Republican | Bill Krehnbrink | 3,606 | 2.05% | |
| Republican | Nnabu Eze | 3,442 | 1.96% | |
| Republican | Albert Howard | 2,720 | 1.55% | |
| Total votes | 175,981 | 100.00% | ||
Libertarian Party
Candidates
Declared
- Arvin Vohra, vice chair of the Libertarian National Committee and perennial candidate,[34] of Montgomery County[9]
Independents
Candidates
Declared
- Michael B Puskar, property manager
- Edward Shlikas, home care compliance manager[35]
- Neal Simon, businessman[36][37]
General election
Candidates
- Tony Campbell, professor at Towson University (R)
- Ben Cardin, incumbent (D)
- Michael B Puskar, property manager (I)
- Neal Simon, businessman (I)
- Arvin Vohra, vice chair of the Libertarian National Committee (L)
Endorsements
Ben Cardin (D)
Organizations
- AFSCME Maryland Council 3[14]
- League of Conservation Voters[15]
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare[38]
- National Organization for Women[39]
- Sierra Club[17]
Newspapers
Tony Campbell (R)
U.S. executive branch officials
State senators[29]
- Gail H. Bates, state senator
- Robert G. Cassilly, state senator
- Michael Hough, state senator
- J. B. Jennings, state senator
- Edward R. Reilly, state senator
- Johnny Ray Salling, state senator
State delegates
- Wendell R. Beitzel, state delegate
- Andrew Cassilly, state delegate
- Barrie Ciliberti, state delegate
- Joe Cluster, state delegate
- Ron George, former state delegate
- Glen Glass, state delegate
- Robin L. Grammer, Jr., state delegate
- Nic Kipke, state delegate
- Susan W. Krebs, state delegate
- Susan K. McComas, state delegate
- Pat McDonough, state delegate
- Richard W. Metzgar, state delegate
- Christian Miele, state delegate
- Neil Parrott, state delegate
- Chris West, state delegate
- William J. Wivell, state delegate
Individuals
- Ellen Sauerbrey, former Assistant Secretary of State for Population, Refugees, and Migration[30]
- Joseph E. Schmitz, former DoD Inspector General[31]
- Michael Steele, former RNC chairman and former lieutenant governor of Maryland[32]
Organizations
- Family Research Council[41]
- Maryland Right to Life[42]
- National Association of Wholesaler-Distributors[42]
- National Right to Life[43]
- NRA Political Victory Fund[44][45]
Neal Simon (I)
Organizations
Individuals
- Larry Hogan, governor of Maryland (Republican)[47]
- Isaac Slade, musician[48]
Debates
On October 7, 2018, Cardin, independent candidate Neal Simon and Republican candidate Tony Campbell participated in the sole televised debate of the campaign.[49][50][51]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[52] | Safe D | October 26, 2018 |
| Inside Elections[53] | Safe D | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[54] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News[55] | Likely D | July 9, 2018 |
| CNN[56] | Safe D | July 12, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[57] | Safe D | June 2018 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ben Cardin (D) |
Tony Campbell (R) |
Neal Simon (I) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gonzales Research (I-Simon)[58] | October 1–6, 2018 | 806 | ± 3.5% | 49% | 22% | 18% | – | 11% |
| Goucher College[59] | September 11–16, 2018 | 472 | ± 4.5% | 56% | 17% | 8% | 1%[60] | 14% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Ben Cardin (incumbent) | 1,491,614 | 64.86% | +8.88% | |
| Republican | Tony Campbell | 697,017 | 30.31% | +3.98% | |
| Independent | Neal Simon | 85,964 | 3.74% | N/A | |
| Libertarian | Arvin Vohra | 22,943 | 1.00% | −0.22% | |
| Write-in | 2,351 | 0.10% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 2,299,889 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
By county
| County | Ben Cardin
Democratic |
Tony Campbell
Republican |
Neal Simon
Independent |
Arvin Vohra
Libertarian |
Write-ins
Independent |
Margin | Total
votes cast | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Allegany | 8597 | 36.82% | 13790 | 59.06% | 746 | 3.19% | 196 | 0.84% | 20 | 0.09% | -5193 | -22.24% | 23349 |
| Anne Arundel | 122910 | 53.74% | 92401 | 40.40% | 10528 | 4.60% | 2674 | 1.17% | 190 | 0.08% | 30509 | 13.34% | 228703 |
| Baltimore (City) | 160370 | 86.95% | 16184 | 8.77% | 5596 | 3.03% | 1917 | 1.04% | 375 | 0.20% | 144186 | 78.17% | 184442 |
| Baltimore (County) | 197530 | 60.85% | 106275 | 32.74% | 17192 | 5.30% | 3313 | 1.02% | 290 | 0.09% | 91255 | 28.11% | 324600 |
| Calvert | 17372 | 44.51% | 19901 | 50.99% | 1273 | 3.26% | 458 | 1.17% | 27 | 0.07% | -2529 | -6.48% | 39031 |
| Caroline | 4265 | 37.73% | 6474 | 57.27% | 451 | 3.99% | 105 | 0.93% | 9 | 0.08% | -2209 | -19.54% | 11304 |
| Carroll | 25986 | 34.89% | 42479 | 57.03% | 5020 | 6.74% | 966 | 1.30% | 38 | 0.05% | -16493 | -22.14% | 74489 |
| Cecil | 13237 | 38.05% | 19851 | 57.06% | 1267 | 3.64% | 412 | 1.18% | 24 | 0.07% | -6614 | -19.01% | 34791 |
| Charles | 44874 | 69.54% | 17872 | 27.69% | 1284 | 1.99% | 462 | 0.72% | 41 | 0.06% | 27002 | 41.84% | 64533 |
| Dorchester | 5928 | 48.23% | 5864 | 47.71% | 397 | 3.23% | 95 | 0.77% | 8 | 0.07% | 64 | 0.52% | 12292 |
| Frederick | 55256 | 51.67% | 47038 | 43.99% | 3242 | 3.03% | 1292 | 1.21% | 105 | 0.10% | 8218 | 7.69% | 106933 |
| Garrett | 2817 | 25.75% | 7801 | 71.31% | 216 | 1.97% | 98 | 0.90% | 7 | 0.06% | -4984 | -45.56% | 10939 |
| Harford | 45921 | 41.63% | 56749 | 51.45% | 6185 | 5.61% | 1352 | 1.23% | 100 | 0.09% | -10828 | -9.82% | 110307 |
| Howard | 96067 | 66.97% | 38797 | 27.05% | 6621 | 4.62% | 1819 | 1.27% | 144 | 0.10% | 57270 | 39.92% | 143448 |
| Kent | 4588 | 53.49% | 3490 | 40.69% | 411 | 4.79% | 86 | 1.00% | 3 | 0.03% | 1098 | 12.80% | 8578 |
| Montgomery | 314568 | 77.29% | 74924 | 18.41% | 13333 | 3.28% | 3655 | 0.90% | 517 | 0.13% | 239644 | 58.88% | 406997 |
| Prince George's | 286975 | 90.10% | 24140 | 7.58% | 5031 | 1.58% | 2031 | 0.64% | 346 | 0.11% | 262835 | 82.52% | 318523 |
| Queen Anne's | 8463 | 37.21% | 12813 | 56.34% | 1230 | 5.41% | 232 | 1.02% | 6 | 0.03% | -4350 | -19.13% | 22744 |
| St. Mary's | 16849 | 41.93% | 21393 | 53.24% | 1361 | 3.39% | 559 | 1.39% | 18 | 0.04% | -4544 | -11.31% | 40180 |
| Somerset | 3652 | 47.09% | 3882 | 50.06% | 172 | 2.22% | 45 | 0.58% | 4 | 0.05% | -230 | -2.97% | 7755 |
| Talbot | 9054 | 50.12% | 8050 | 44.56% | 796 | 4.41% | 154 | 0.85% | 12 | 0.07% | 1004 | 5.56% | 18066 |
| Washington | 19956 | 39.59% | 28319 | 56.18% | 1598 | 3.17% | 507 | 1.01% | 26 | 0.05% | -8363 | -16.59% | 50406 |
| Wicomico | 16539 | 49.09% | 15644 | 46.43% | 1133 | 3.36% | 351 | 1.04% | 24 | 0.07% | 895 | 2.66% | 33691 |
| Worcester | 9840 | 41.37% | 12886 | 54.17% | 881 | 3.70% | 164 | 0.69% | 17 | 0.07% | -3046 | -12.80% | 23788 |
| Total | 1491614 | 64.86% | 697017 | 30.31% | 85964 | 3.74% | 22943 | 1.00% | 2351 | 0.10% | 794597 | 34.55% | 2299889 |
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Calvert (largest municipality: Chesapeake Beach)
- Somerset (largest municipality: Princess Anne)[62][63]
By congressional district
Cardin won seven of eight congressional districts.[64]
| District | Cardin | Campbell | Elected Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 40% | 54% | Andy Harris |
| 2nd | 65% | 30% | Dutch Ruppersberger |
| 3rd | 67% | 27% | John Sarbanes |
| 4th | 79% | 18% | Anthony Brown |
| 5th | 68% | 29% | Steny Hoyer |
| 6th | 60% | 35% | David Trone |
| 7th | 75% | 20% | Elijah Cummings |
| 8th | 67% | 28% | Jamie Raskin |