Wikiwand AI

1999 Portuguese legislative election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The 1999 Portuguese legislative election took place on 10 October. The election renewed all 230 members of the Assembly of the Republic.

Registered8,864,604 Decrease 0.5%
Turnout5,415,150 (61.1%)
Decrease 5.2 pp
Quick facts All 230 seats in the Assembly of the Republic 116 seats needed for a majority, Registered ...
1999 Portuguese legislative election
← 1995
10 October 1999
2002 →
All 230 seats in the Assembly of the Republic
116 seats needed for a majority
Registered8,864,604 Decrease 0.5%
Turnout5,415,150 (61.1%)
Decrease 5.2 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader António Guterres José Durão Barroso Carlos Carvalhas
Party PS PSD PCP
Alliance CDU
Leader since 23 February 1992 2 May 1999 5 December 1992
Leader's seat Castelo Branco Lisbon Lisbon
Last election 112 seats, 43.8% 88 seats, 34.1% 15 seats, 8.6%
Seats won 115 81 17
Seat change Increase 3 Decrease 7 Increase 2
Popular vote 2,385,922 1,750,158 487,058
Percentage 44.1% 32.3% 9.0%
Swing Increase 0.3 pp Decrease 1.8 pp Increase 0.4 pp
  Fourth party Fifth party
 
Leader Paulo Portas Francisco Louçã
Party CDS–PP BE
Leader since 22 March 1998 24 March 1999
Leader's seat Aveiro Lisbon
Last election 15 seats, 9.0% Did not contest
Seats won 15 2
Seat change Steady 0 Increase 2
Popular vote 451,643 132,333
Percentage 8.3% 2.4%
Swing Decrease 0.7 pp New party
Prime Minister before election

António Guterres
PS

 Prime Minister after election

António Guterres
PS

Close

Incumbent Prime Minister António Guterres ran for a second term, but despite opinion poll predictions, the election results were labeled as a disappointment for Guterres' Socialists, as the party failed to win a historical absolute majority by just one MP and barely improved their 1995 score, just 0.3 percentage points.[1] The disappointing PS score would create instability in Guterres' second government in the years to follow.[2] The Social Democratic Party was still away from the preferences of the majority of the Portuguese people, after the ten years cycle under the lead of Cavaco Silva that had terminated four years before, and lost 7 MPs, compared with 1995, and gathered 32 percent of the votes.

The Democratic Unity Coalition managed to recover, gaining two seats and defying predictions of its irreversible decline after the collapse of the Socialist Bloc in the early 1990s. The CDS–People's Party was able to hold on to its 15 MPs after tensions with the PSD earlier that year. For the first time, the Left Bloc, formed after the merger of several minor left-wing parties, gained representation in parliament by electing two MPs.

The turnout rate was low, being the lowest until it was surpassed in 2009 and all subsequent elections. Overall, voter turnout was only 61 percent of voters, one of the lowest ever recorded.

Background

Guterres' first government became the first minority government in Portuguese democracy to complete a 4-year term,[3] marked by the country's growing economy and stature, following the Expo 1998 and the support for the East-Timor cause.[4] Furthermore, during this term, the Socialists' center-right opposition faced deep divisions,[5] but despite this background, Guterres' government also suffered some setbacks, such as the 1998 abortion[6] and regionalisation referendums, the latter one seen as the major defeat.[7]

Leadership changes and challenges

Social Democratic Party

After leading his party to two successive defeats, in the 1995 election and in the 1996 Presidential election, then PSD leader Fernando Nogueira resigned.[8] A party congress to elect a new leader was called for late March 1996. For that leadership ballot, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa announced his candidacy, just a few days after saying a phrase that would become famous in Portuguese politics, "Not even if Christ descends to earth, will I run."[9] Marcelo faced Pedro Santana Lopes, which repeated his failed bid of 1995. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa was easily elected as PSD leader.[10] The results were the following:

More information Candidate, Votes ...
Ballot: 30 March 1996
Candidate Votes %
Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa 603 66.4
Pedro Santana Lopes 305 33.6
Turnout 908
Source: Results
Close

By late 1998, PSD leader Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa's plan to create an electoral alliance with the CDS – People's Party was splitting his party, but nonetheless, the alliance was approved in a party congress in February 1999, under the name "Democratic Alternative" (AD).[11][12] However, at the same a time, a scandal allegedly involving CDS–PP leader Paulo Portas, the "Moderna case", in which alleged corrupt dealings and mismanagement occurred at Moderna University,[13] was creating a bad mood between PSD and CDS–PP, and especially between the two party leaders, with Marcelo not publicly supporting Portas.[14][15] In reaction, by late March, Paulo Portas revealed private conversations with Marcelo on an interview to SIC, that precipitated Marcelo's resignation and the end of the AD alliance project.[15] In that interview, Portas said that the PSD needed to come clean and say if they trusted him as CDS leader, adding that Marcelo told him that a majority of the PSD leadership didn't like him and felt he was a liability to the alliance.[16] Feeling betrayed and seeing that the AD alliance was unfeasible, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa resigned from the PSD leadership.[12][15] A snap party congress was called for early May, and, as the sole candidate, José Manuel Durão Barroso was unanimously elected as the new PSD leader:

More information Candidate, Votes ...
Ballot: 1 May 1999
Candidate Votes %
José Manuel Durão Barroso 100.0
Turnout
Source: Results
Close

CDS – People's Party

Then CDS leader, Manuel Monteiro, resigned from the leadership after the party's poor results in the 1997 local elections.[17] Paulo Portas, which had a tense relationship with Monteiro, announced his candidacy but faced the candidate of the "Monteiro wing", Maria José Nogueira Pinto. The congress was very tense, with strong accusations between both candidates, but in the end Paulo Portas was elected as new party leader:[18]

More information Candidate, Votes ...
Ballot: 22 March 1998
Candidate Votes %
Paulo Portas WIN
Maria José Nogueira Pinto
Turnout
Source:
Close

Electoral system

Official logo of the election.

The Assembly of the Republic has 230 members elected to four-year terms. Governments do not require absolute majority support of the Assembly to hold office, as even if the number of opposers of government is larger than that of the supporters, the number of opposers still needs to be equal or greater than 116 (absolute majority) for both the Government's Programme to be rejected or for a motion of no confidence to be approved.[19]

The number of seats assigned to each district depends on the district magnitude.[20] The use of the d'Hondt method makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation methods such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties.[21]

For these elections, and compared with the 1995 elections, the MPs distributed by districts were the following:[22]

More information District, Number of MPs ...
DistrictNumber of MPsMap
Lisbon(–1)49
Porto37
Braga(+1)17
Setúbal17
Aveiro(+1)15
Leiria, Santarém and Coimbra10
Viseu9
Faro8
Viana do Castelo6
Azores, Castelo Branco, Madeira and Vila Real5
Bragança, Évora and Guarda4
Beja(–1) and Portalegre3
Europe and Outside Europe2
Close

Parties

The table below lists the parties represented in the Assembly of the Republic during the 7th legislature (1995–1999) and that also partook in the election:

More information Name, Ideology ...
Name Ideology Political position Leader 1995 result
% Seats
PS Socialist Party
Partido Socialista		 Social democracy
Third Way		 Centre-left to Centre António Guterres 43.8%
112 / 230
PPD/PSD Social Democratic Party
Partido Social Democrata		 Liberal conservatism
Classical liberalism		 Centre-right José Manuel Durão Barroso 34.1%
88 / 230
CDS–PP CDS – People's Party
Centro Democrático e Social – Partido Popular		 Christian democracy
Conservatism		 Centre-right
to right-wing		 Paulo Portas 9.1%
15 / 230
PCP Portuguese Communist Party
Partido Comunista Português		 Communism
Marxism–Leninism		 Far-left Carlos Carvalhas
8.6%
[a]
13 / 230
PEV Ecologist Party "The Greens"
Partido Ecologista "Os Verdes"		 Eco-socialism
Green politics		 Left-wing Isabel Castro
2 / 230
Close

Campaign period

Issues

The campaign was dominated by the country's good economic situation, with António Guterres, Prime Minister and PS leader, campaigning intensely to win a majority, amidst pre-election polls predicting a comfortable PS majority,[4][23] while the internal divisions that affected the center-right Social Democrats (PSD) at the beginning of the year also became evident during the campaign period.[24] The last few days of the campaign were overshadowed by the death of fado singer Amália Rodrigues, with campaign events being cancelled.[25]

Party slogans

More information Party or alliance, Original slogan ...
Party or alliance Original slogan English translation Refs
PS « Portugal em boas mãos » "Portugal in good hands" [26]
PSD « Vamos cumprir » "We will deliver" [27]
CDS–PP « Alternativa'99 » "Alternative'99" [28]
CDU « Para que não fique tudo na mesma » "So that everything will not stay the same" [29]
BE « É tempo de ser exigente » "It's time to be demanding" [30]
Close

Candidates' debates

More information Date, Organisers ...
1999 Portuguese legislative election debates
Date Organisers Moderator(s)     P  Present    A  Absent invitee  N  Non-invitee 
PS
Guterres		 PSD
Barroso		 CDU
Carvalhas		 CDS–PP
Portas		 Refs
16 Sep SIC José Alberto Carvalho P P N N [31]
17 Sep SIC José Alberto Carvalho N N P P [31]
19 Sep SIC José Alberto Carvalho N P N P [31]
20 Sep SIC José Alberto Carvalho P N P N [31]
21 Sep SIC José Alberto Carvalho P N N P [31]
22 Sep SIC José Alberto Carvalho N P P N [31]
23 Sep RTP1 Judite de Sousa P P P P [32]
Candidate viewed as "most convincing" in each debate
Date Organisers Polling firm/Link
PS PSD CDU CDS–PP Notes
16 Sep SIC SIC 57 25 N/a N/a 18% Neither
Close

Opinion polling

See also: Exit poll and Opinion poll

The following table shows the opinion polls of voting intention of the Portuguese voters before the election. Included is also the result of the Portuguese general elections in 1995 and 1999 for reference.

Note, until 2000, the publication of opinion polls in the last week of the campaign was forbidden.[33]

  Exit poll

More information Polling firm/Link, Date Released ...
Polling firm/Link Date Released PS PSD CDS–PP CDU BE O Lead
1999 legislative election 10 Oct 1999 44.1
115		 32.3
81		 8.3
15		 9.0
17		 2.4
2		 3.9
0		 11.8
UCP 10 Oct 1999 46.0 30.3 7.5 8.5 2.5 5.2 15.7
Seeds 10 Oct 1999 46.3 31.5 8.0 9.8 2.8 1.6 14.8
Intercampus 10 Oct 1999 46.3 28.6 8.3 9.5 3.2 4.1 17.7
Euroexpansão 2 Oct 1999 50 32 8 6 2 2 18
Seeds 1 Oct 1999 47 32 7 8 1 5 15
Metris 1 Oct 1999 48 31 7 7 1 6 17
UCP 1 Oct 1999 47.2 30.0 7.2 7.9 2.8 4.9 17.2
Marktest 30 Sep 1999 46.2 30.7 4.2 10.6 2.8 5.5 15.5
Aximage 30 Sep 1999 49 33 6 7 1 4 16
Euroexpansão 25 Sep 1999 50.0 33.8 N/a N/a N/a 16.2 16.2
SIC/Visão 23 Sep 1999 46.8 31.8 N/a N/a N/a 21.4 15.0
Euroexpansão 18 Sep 1999 49.0 35.4 N/a N/a N/a 15.6 13.5
Independente 17 Sep 1999 45.0 34.2 N/a N/a N/a 20.8 10.8
UCP 14 Sep 1999 56.4 30.1 N/a N/a N/a 13.5 26.3
UCP 29 Jul 1999 52.0 31.6 6.2 6.9 1.9 1.4 20.4
1999 EP elections 13 Jun 1999 43.1 31.1 8.2 10.3 1.8 5.5 12.0
UCP 19 Mar 1999 55.3 32.6[b] 9.3 2.0 0.8 22.7
UCP Sep 1998 45.3 36.1 5.2 6.9 N/a 6.5 9.2
1997 local elections 14 Dec 1997 41.2 35.2 6.3 12.0 N/a 5.3 6.0
UCP 21 Mar 1997 40 33 6.5 8 N/a 12.5 7
UCP Dec 1996 47 29 N/a N/a N/a 24 18
Euroexpansão[34] 25 Nov 1995 48.0 28.8 9.8 4.8 N/a 8.6 19.2
Euroexpansão[35] 28 Oct 1995 45.7 26.3 13.0 5.5 N/a 8.1 19.4
1995 legislative election 1 Oct 1995 43.8
112		 34.1
88		 9.1
15		 8.6
15		 N/a 4.4
0		 9.7
Close

Results

National summary

More information Party, Votes ...
PartyVotes%+/–Seats+/–
Socialist Party2,385,92244.06+0.30115+3
Social Democratic Party1,750,15832.32–1.8081–7
Unitary Democratic Coalition[c]487,0588.99+0.4217+2
CDS – People's Party451,6438.34–0.71150
Left Bloc132,3332.44+1.232+2
Portuguese Workers' Communist Party40,0060.74+0.0400
Earth Party19,9380.37+0.2300
People's Monarchist Party16,5220.31+0.2100
National Solidarity Party11,4880.21–0.0000
Humanist Party7,3460.14New0New
Workers' Party of Socialist Unity4,1040.08+0.0400
Democratic Party of the Atlantic[d]4380.01–0.0300
Total5,306,956100.00–2300
Valid votes5,306,95698.00–0.08
Invalid votes51,2300.95–0.19
Blank votes56,9641.05+0.27
Total votes5,415,150100.00–
Registered voters/turnout8,864,60461.09–5.21
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições
Close
Vote share
PS
 
 44.06%
PSD
 
 32.32%
CDU
 
 8.99%
CDS-PP
 
 8.34%
BE
 
 2.44%
PCTP/MRPP
 
 0.74%
Others
 
 1.12%
Blank/Invalid
 
 2.00%
Parliamentary seats
PS
 
 50.00%
PSD
 
 35.22%
CDU
 
 7.39%
CDS-PP
 
 6.52%
BE
 
 0.87%

Distribution by constituency

More information Constituency, % ...
Results of the 1999 election of the Portuguese Assembly of the Republic
by constituency
Constituency%S%S%S%S%S Total
S
PS PSD CDU CDS–PP BE
Azores 53.3 3 35.8 2 1.7 - 5.6 - 1.1 - 5
Aveiro 40.2 7 38.3 6 3.5 - 13.6 2 1.3 - 15
Beja 46.7 2 14.5 - 28.3 1 3.9 - 1.6 - 3
Braga 44.3 8 36.7 7 5.4 1 8.9 1 1.2 - 17
Bragança 39.7 2 45.1 2 2.6 - 8.7 - 0.8 - 4
Castelo Branco 51.6 3 32.0 2 5.3 - 6.3 - 1.2 - 5
Coimbra 47.2 6 35.2 4 6.1 - 6.0 - 2.0 - 10
Évora 45.7 2 18.7 1 24.6 1 5.1 - 1.5 - 4
Faro 48.4 5 29.5 3 8.3 - 7.3 - 2.3 - 8
Guarda 43.4 2 39.2 2 3.2 - 9.8 - 1.1 - 4
Leiria 36.8 4 42.6 5 5.3 - 9.9 1 1.7 - 10
Lisbon 42.7 23 27.3 14 12.3 6 8.5 4 4.9 2 49
Madeira 35.1 2 46.2 3 2.8 - 10.9 - 1.2 - 5
Portalegre 51.2 2 22.5 1 15.0 - 5.9 - 1.2 - 3
Porto 48.0 19 32.7 13 6.2 2 7.5 3 2.3 - 37
Santarém 45.5 5 30.2 3 10.1 1 8.1 1 2.0 - 10
Setúbal 43.7 8 18.0 3 24.8 5 5.6 1 3.5 - 17
Viana do Castelo 40.2 3 35.8 2 5.0 - 14.0 1 1.2 - 6
Vila Real 40.8 2 45.5 3 2.4 - 6.8 - 0.8 - 5
Viseu 38.1 4 44.3 4 2.2 - 10.5 1 1.2 - 9
Europe 55.4 2 24.7 - 5.3 - 3.2 - 0.6 - 2
Outside Europe 39.8 1 49.5 1 1.7 - 3.5 - 0.4 - 2
Total 44.1 115 32.3 81 9.0 17 8.3 15 2.4 2 230
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições
Close

Maps

  • Most voted political force by district. (Madeira and Azores not shown)
    Most voted political force by district. (Madeira and Azores not shown)
  • Winner and seats by constituency.
    Winner and seats by constituency.
  • Most voted political force by municipality.
    Most voted political force by municipality.

Aftermath

Guterres second government was haunted by its failure in winning an absolute majority in the 1999 election.[1] The tie between the Government and the opposition created a series of problems to Guterres as all opposition parties, PSD, CDU, CDS–PP and BE, refused to negotiate with the Government. Despite this, in the 2000 budget vote, CDS–PP decided to abstain and the budget passed:[36]

More information Ballot →, 15 March 2000 ...
2000 State Budget
António Guterres (PS)
Ballot → 15 March 2000
Required majority → Simple
Yes
  • • PS (115)
115 / 230
No
100 / 230
Abstentions
15 / 230
Absentees
0 / 230
Result → Approved checkY
Sources[37][38]
Close

However, after the 2000 budget, CDS–PP was no longer willing to support Guterres and, the solution found was a controversial one: With a sole CDS–PP MP, Daniel Campelo, Guterres secured the approval of his two following annual State Budgets in exchange for the government financing a cheese factory in Campelo's hometown of Ponte de Lima, Viana do Castelo district, as well as other supports for the same region.[39][40] Campelo was ultimately suspended from CDS–PP, and from November 2000 onwards, sat as an Independent.[41][42]

More information Ballot →, 29 November 2000 ...
2001 State Budget
António Guterres (PS)
Ballot → 29 November 2000
Required majority → Simple
Yes
  • • PS (115)
115 / 230
No
114 / 230
Abstentions
  • • Ind. Daniel Campelo (1)
1 / 230
Absentees
0 / 230
Result → Approved checkY
Sources[43]
Close
More information Ballot →, 30 November 2001 ...
2002 State Budget
António Guterres (PS)
Ballot → 30 November 2001
Required majority → Simple
Yes
  • • PS (115)
115 / 230
No
114 / 230
Abstentions
  • • Ind. Daniel Campelo (1)
1 / 230
Absentees
0 / 230
Result → Approved checkY
Sources[44]
Close

Fall of the government

Besides his fragile majority to approve major legislation, Guterres also suffered with a lot of instability within his own cabinet, with two reshuffles in just four months during 2001.[1] The Hintze Ribeiro Bridge collapse generated public anger against the government, which eroded even more Guterres' popularity.[45] Furthermore, by mid-2001, the economy was showing strong signs of slowdown, in a time when Portugal was about to enter into the Euro common currency and was suffering from the global impact of the September 11 attacks.[46] All these problems culminated in the December 2001 local elections, where the PS suffered a big defeat and saw major urban centers, mainly Lisbon and Porto, swing dramatically to the right-wing. In response to these results, Guterres announced his resignation as Prime Minister, justifying his decision as a way to avoid a "political swamp".[47][48] President Jorge Sampaio dissolved Parliament and called an election for 17 March 2002.[49]

See also

Notes

  1. [a]
    The Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Ecologist Party "The Greens" (PEV) contested the 1999 election in a coalition called Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU) and won a combined 8.6% of the vote and elected 15 MPs to parliament.
  2. [b]
    Poll with the proposed Democratic Alternative (AD) between PSD and CDS–PP that ultimately failed and didn't run for the elections.
  3. [c]
    Portuguese Communist Party (15 MPs) and "The Greens" (2 MPs) ran in coalition.
  4. [d]
    Democratic Party of the Atlantic electoral list only in Azores.

References

External links

Related Articles

Timelines

Top Qs

Fact Checks