2002 Portuguese legislative election
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2002 Portuguese legislative election took place on 17 March. The election renewed all 230 members of the Assembly of the Republic.
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17 March 2002
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All 230 seats in the Assembly of the Republic 116 seats needed for a majority | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Registered | 8,902,713 0.4% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 5,472,851 (61.5%) 0.4 pp | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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These elections were called after the resignation of the then incumbent Prime Minister, António Guterres after the defeat of the Socialist Party in the 2001 local elections. That fact, plus the problematic state of the country's finances were the main arguments of the right-wing parties, which led them to be the favourites to win the election.
With just over 40 percent of the votes cast, the Social Democrats regained the status as the largest political force in Portugal, although the Socialists won almost 38 percent of the vote. This was the closest legislative election in Portuguese democracy until 2024. This short distance also appears on the electoral map, with each party winning eleven of the 22 districts, while the PS won the most populous, Lisbon and Porto. As a result, the Social Democrats fail to win the absolute majority they had between 1987 and 1995.
As no Party got an absolute majority, the Social Democrats formed a coalition with the right-wing People's Party. The left-wing Democratic Unity Coalition achieved the lowest result ever, finishing in the third place in its traditional strongholds, Évora and Setúbal. The Left Bloc gained one MP. Turnout was slightly higher than it was in 1999 but remained quite low, marking a growing separation between the politics and the Portuguese people, mainly due to the image of the politicians as corrupts and the idea that all the parties are the same.
Voter turnout was slightly higher than in 1999, as 61.5 percent of the electorate cast a ballot.
Background
After the disappointing results of the Socialist Party (PS) in the 1999 elections, the PS government entered in a series of crisis.[1] Resignations of ministers from government and incapacity of passing legislation in Parliament led to controversial, and weird, alliances, like the 2000 and 2001 budgets which were approved by a sole CDS – People's Party (CDS–PP) Member of Parliament, Daniel Campelo, in exchange for the government approving a cheese factory in Campelo's hometown, Ponte de Lima, in Viana do Castelo district.[2]
Government fall
The Socialist Party suffered a big, and unexpected, defeat in the December 2001 local elections.[3] The party lost major municipalities across the country, mainly Lisbon, Porto, Sintra and Coimbra to the Social Democratic Party. Due to this surprising defeat, Prime Minister António Guterres announced he was to tender his resignation as Prime Minister in order to avoid the country falling "into a political swamp".[4] Shortly after, President Jorge Sampaio accepted Guterres resignation and called snap elections for March 2002.[5]
Leadership changes and challenges
Social Democratic Party
After the 1999 election defeat, Durão Barroso's leadership started to be challenged and criticized.[6] In January 2000, Durão Barroso called a snap party congress to resolve the leadership dispute.[7] Alongside Barroso, Pedro Santana Lopes and Luís Marques Mendes also ran. Durão Barroso was reelected as PSD leader and the results were the following:
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| José Manuel Durão Barroso | 469 | 50.3 | |
| Pedro Santana Lopes | 313 | 33.6 | |
| Luís Marques Mendes | 150 | 16.1 | |
| Turnout | 932 | ||
| Source: Results | |||
Socialist Party
Following the resignation of António Guterres as Prime Minister and PS leader,[8] the party started the process to elect a new leader. The popular minister in Guterres cabinet, Eduardo Ferro Rodrigues, and PS member Paulo Penedos, were the two candidates on the ballot, while the minister of Foreign Affairs Jaime Gama, who had announced his candidacy, dropped out.[9] Around 121,000 PS members were registered to vote.[10] In the end, Ferro Rodrigues got almost unanimous support by being elected with almost 97 percent of the votes.[11] The results were the following:
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eduardo Ferro Rodrigues | 96.5 | ||
| Paulo Penedos | 2.7 | ||
| Blank/Invalid ballots | 0.8 | ||
| Turnout | |||
| Source: Results | |||
Electoral system
The Assembly of the Republic has 230 members elected to four-year terms. Governments do not require absolute majority support of the Assembly to hold office, as even if the number of opposers of government is larger than that of the supporters, the number of opposers still needs to be equal or greater than 116 (absolute majority) for both the Government's Programme to be rejected or for a motion of no confidence to be approved.[12]
The number of seats assigned to each district depends on the district magnitude.[13] The use of the d'Hondt method makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation methods such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties.[14]
For these elections, and compared with the 1999 elections, the MPs distributed by districts were the following:[15]
| District | Number of MPs | Map |
|---|---|---|
| Lisbon(–1) | 48 | 
18
6
38
5
4
15
9
4
10
5
10
10
48
3
3
17
3
8
5
5
2
2
|
| Porto(+1) | 38 | |
| Braga(+1) | 18 | |
| Setúbal | 17 | |
| Aveiro | 15 | |
| Leiria, Santarém and Coimbra | 10 | |
| Viseu | 9 | |
| Faro | 8 | |
| Viana do Castelo | 6 | |
| Azores, Castelo Branco, Madeira and Vila Real | 5 | |
| Bragança and Guarda | 4 | |
| Beja, Évora(–1) and Portalegre | 3 | |
| Europe and Outside Europe | 2 |
Parties
The table below lists the parties represented in the Assembly of the Republic during the 8th legislature (1999–2002) and that also partook in the election:
| Name | Ideology | Political position | Leader | 1999 result | Seats at dissolution | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | Seats | |||||||
| PS | Socialist Party Partido Socialista |
Social democracy | Centre-left | Ferro Rodrigues | 44.1% | 115 / 230 |
115 / 230 | |
| PPD/PSD | Social Democratic Party Partido Social Democrata |
Liberal conservatism Classical liberalism |
Centre-right | José Manuel Durão Barroso | 32.3% | 81 / 230 |
81 / 230 | |
| PCP | Portuguese Communist Party Partido Comunista Português |
Communism Marxism–Leninism |
Far-left | Carlos Carvalhas | 9.0% [a] |
15 / 230 |
15 / 230 | |
| PEV | Ecologist Party "The Greens" Partido Ecologista "Os Verdes" |
Eco-socialism Green politics |
Left-wing | Isabel Castro | 2 / 230 |
2 / 230 | ||
| CDS–PP | CDS – People's Party Centro Democrático e Social – Partido Popular |
Christian democracy Conservatism |
Centre-right to right-wing |
Paulo Portas | 8.3% | 15 / 230 |
14 / 230 | |
| BE | Left Bloc Bloco de Esquerda |
Democratic socialism Anti-capitalism |
Left-wing | Francisco Louçã | 2.4% | 2 / 230 |
1 / 230 | |
| Ind. | Independent Independente |
Daniel Campelo (left the CDS – People's Party caucus)[16] | 1 / 230 | |||||
Seat changes
- On 7 November 2000, MP Daniel Campelo, elected in the CDS – People's Party list for Viana do Castelo, left the party and became an Independent, following a split with CDS–PP regarding his votes in favour of António Guterres government's State budgets.[17]
Campaign period
Party slogans
| Party or alliance | Original slogan | English translation | Refs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS | « Fazer bem » | "Doing well" | [18] | |
| PSD | « Somos todos Portugal » | "We are all Portugal" | [19] | |
| CDU | « Mudar para melhor » | "Change for the better" | [20] | |
| CDS–PP | « O braço direito de Portugal » | "Portugal's right-hand man" | [21] | |
| BE | « Com Razões Fortes » | "With Strong Reasons" | [22] | |
Candidates' debates
Opinion polling
The following table shows the opinion polls of voting intention of the Portuguese voters before the election. Included is also the result of the Portuguese general elections in 1999 and 2002 for reference.
Exit poll
| Polling firm/Link | Date Released |  |
 |
 |
 |
 |
O | Lead | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 legislative election | 17 Mar 2002 | 37.8 96 |
40.2 105 |
6.9 12 |
8.7 14 |
2.7 3 |
3.7 0 |
2.4 | |
| UCP | 17 Mar 2002 (20:00) | 36–41 | 37–42 | 5.5–8 | 7.5–10 | 3–4 | — | 1 | |
| Eurosondagem | 17 Mar 2002 (20:00) | 35.5–39.3 | 40.1–43.9 | 6.2–8.4 | 6.2–8.4 | 2.0–3.4 | — | 4.6 | |
| Intercampus | 17 Mar 2002 (20:00) | 35.5–40.5 | 37.8–42.8 | 6.8–9.8 | 5.3–8.3 | 1.6–4.2 | — | 2.3 | |
| Marktest | 15 Mar 2002 | 35.2 | 43.7 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 8.5 | |
| Lusófona | 15 Mar 2002 | 40.9 | 43.6 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 2.8 | N/a | 2.7 | |
| Eurosondagem | 15 Mar 2002 | 39.3 | 41.4 | 6.9 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 2.1 | |
| Eurequipa | 15 Mar 2002 | 33.9 | 44.7 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 10.8 | |
| UCP | 15 Mar 2002 | 37.5 | 42.2 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 4.7 | |
| Intercampus | 14 Mar 2002 | 39 | 41 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |
| Aximage | 14 Mar 2002 | 40 | 44 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
| SIC/Visão | 13 Mar 2002 | 36.2 | 41.0 | 6.6 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 9.0 | 4.8 | |
| Eurosondagem | 8 Mar 2002 | 39.9 | 42.7 | N/a | N/a | N/a | 17.4 | 2.8 | |
| Marktest | 8 Mar 2002 | 36 | 43 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 7 | |
| Visão | 7 Mar 2002 | 38.4 | 41.2 | 2.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 10.5 | 2.8 | |
| Eurosondagem | 2 Mar 2002 | 35 | 38 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 3 | |
| Eurequipa | 1 Mar 2002 | 35.0 | 42.3 | N/a | N/a | N/a | 22.7 | 7.3 | |
| SIC/Visão | 28 Feb 2002 | 43.0 | 47.6 | N/a | N/a | N/a | 9.4 | 4.6 | |
| UCP | 27 Feb 2002 | 35.6 | 43.5 | N/a | N/a | N/a | 20.9 | 7.9 | |
| Marktest | Feb 2002 | 34.7 | 45.7 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 11.0 | |
| Marktest | Jan 2002 | 33.8 | 41.8 | 9.6 | 8.1 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 8.0 | |
| Marktest | 22 Dec 2001 | 34 | 39 | 11 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
| Local elections | 16 Dec 2001 | 37.1 | 41.1 | 10.6 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 6.0 | 4.0 | |
| Marktest | Nov 2001 | 35.4 | 33.7 | 10.6 | 11.6 | 2.9 | 5.8 | 1.7 | |
| Marktest | Oct 2001 | 35.9 | 33.9 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 2.7 | 5.5 | 2.0 | |
| Marktest | 28 Jun 2001 | 34.8 | 35.1 | 10.7 | 10.7 | 3.3 | 5.4 | 0.3 | |
| Marktest | 26 Jan 2001 | 37 | 33 | 10 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 4 | |
| UCP[b] | 8 May 2000 | 40.9 | 32.5 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 3.0 | 8.8 | 8.4 | |
| 1999 legislative election | 10 Oct 1999 | 44.1 115 |
32.3 81 |
9.0 17 |
8.3 15 |
2.4 2 |
3.9 0 |
11.9 | |
Voter turnout
The table below shows voter turnout throughout election day including voters from Overseas. Due to lack of data from the 1999 election, it's not possible to compare the turnout throughout election day between the two elections.
Results
National summary
 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Votes | % | +/– | Seats | +/– | |
| Social Democratic Party | 2,200,765 | 40.21 | +7.89 | 105 | +24 | |
| Socialist Party | 2,068,584 | 37.80 | –6.26 | 96 | –19 | |
| CDS – People's Party | 477,350 | 8.72 | +0.38 | 14 | –1 | |
| Unitary Democratic Coalition[c] | 379,870 | 6.94 | –2.05 | 12 | –5 | |
| Left Bloc | 149,966 | 2.74 | +0.30 | 3 | +1 | |
| Portuguese Workers' Communist Party | 36,193 | 0.66 | –0.08 | 0 | 0 | |
| Earth Party | 15,540 | 0.28 | –0.09 | 0 | 0 | |
| People's Monarchist Party | 12,398 | 0.23 | –0.08 | 0 | 0 | |
| Humanist Party | 11,472 | 0.21 | +0.07 | 0 | 0 | |
| National Renovator Party | 4,712 | 0.09 | New | 0 | New | |
| Workers' Party of Socialist Unity | 4,316 | 0.08 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | |
| Left Bloc–Popular Democratic Union[d] | 3,911 | 0.07 | — | 0 | — | |
| National Solidarity Party[e] | 0 | 0.00 | –0.21 | 0 | 0 | |
| Total | 5,365,077 | 100.00 | – | 230 | 0 | |
| Valid votes | 5,365,077 | 98.03 | +0.03 | |||
| Invalid votes | 52,653 | 0.96 | +0.01 | |||
| Blank votes | 55,121 | 1.01 | –0.04 | |||
| Total votes | 5,472,851 | 100.00 | – | |||
| Registered voters/turnout | 8,902,713 | 61.47 | +0.38 | |||
| Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições[f] | ||||||
Distribution by constituency
| Constituency | % | S | % | S | % | S | % | S | % | S | Total S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSD | PS | CDS–PP | CDU | BE | |||||||
| Azores | 45.4 | 3 | 41.0 | 2 | 8.4 | - | 1.4 | - | 1.4 | - | 5 |
| Aveiro | 46.4 | 8 | 33.5 | 5 | 12.9 | 2 | 2.6 | - | 1.8 | - | 15 |
| Beja | 21.2 | - | 43.5 | 2 | 3.7 | - | 24.2 | 1 | 1.9 | - | 3 |
| Braga | 44.4 | 9 | 37.4 | 8 | 9.3 | 1 | 4.4 | - | 1.7 | - | 18 |
| Bragança | 53.2 | 3 | 30.0 | 1 | 10.9 | - | 1.9 | - | 0.9 | - | 4 |
| Castelo Branco | 38.3 | 2 | 46.1 | 3 | 7.1 | - | 3.3 | - | 1.5 | - | 5 |
| Coimbra | 41.0 | 5 | 41.3 | 5 | 6.7 | - | 5.1 | - | 2.4 | - | 10 |
| Évora | 25.3 | 1 | 42.8 | 1 | 4.6 | - | 21.8 | 1 | 1.8 | - | 3 |
| Faro | 37.7 | 4 | 40.5 | 4 | 8.3 | - | 6.3 | - | 2.8 | - | 8 |
| Guarda | 48.5 | 2 | 34.7 | 2 | 9.6 | - | 2.2 | - | 1.2 | - | 4 |
| Leiria | 50.8 | 6 | 29.5 | 3 | 9.8 | 1 | 4.1 | - | 2.2 | - | 10 |
| Lisbon | 35.7 | 18 | 38.7 | 20 | 8.5 | 4 | 8.8 | 4 | 4.7 | 2 | 48 |
| Madeira | 53.5 | 4 | 25.8 | 1 | 12.1 | - | 2.5 | - | 3.1 | - | 5 |
| Portalegre | 30.6 | 1 | 45.2 | 2 | 6.4 | - | 12.4 | - | 1.6 | - | 3 |
| Porto | 40.0 | 16 | 41.2 | 17 | 8.4 | 3 | 4.6 | 1 | 2.7 | 1 | 38 |
| Santarém | 38.1 | 4 | 38.4 | 4 | 8.4 | 1 | 8.6 | 1 | 2.9 | - | 10 |
| Setúbal | 24.7 | 5 | 39.3 | 7 | 6.9 | 1 | 20.5 | 4 | 4.6 | - | 17 |
| Viana do Castelo | 45.5 | 3 | 35.3 | 3 | 10.3 | - | 3.5 | - | 1.8 | - | 6 |
| Vila Real | 54.1 | 3 | 31.9 | 2 | 8.1 | - | 2.0 | - | 0.9 | - | 5 |
| Viseu | 52.1 | 5 | 31.1 | 3 | 10.6 | 1 | 1.5 | - | 1.4 | - | 9 |
| Europe | 36.9 | 1 | 42.1 | 1 | 5.0 | - | 4.8 | - | 1.1 | - | 2 |
| Outside Europe | 66.3 | 2 | 21.5 | - | 3.4 | - | 0.9 | - | 0.4 | - | 2 |
| Total | 40.2 | 105 | 37.8 | 96 | 8.7 | 14 | 6.9 | 12 | 2.7 | 3 | 230 |
| Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições | |||||||||||
Maps
Winner and seats by constituency.
Most voted political force by municipality.
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Aftermath
After the elections, PSD and CDS–PP formed a coalition government, the first since the Democratic Alliance (AD) in the early 1980's.[27] This government was marked by the fragile fiscal and economic situation of the country and the 2003 Casa Pia child sexual abuse scandal. During this government, Portugal became a major ally in the War in Iraq, even hosting a summit at Lajes Field, in the Azores, between the United States, the United Kingdom and Spain, which divided public opinion.[28] In the 2004 European Parliament election in Portugal, the PSD/CDS–PP coalition Força Portugal suffered a big defeat by gathering just 33 percent of the votes, against the 44 percent of the Socialist Party. A few days later, José Manuel Durão Barroso announced he was resigning from the post of Prime Minister in order to become President of the European Commission.[29] Despite pleas for a snap legislative election from Opposition parties, President Jorge Sampaio decided to nominate the new PSD leader, Pedro Santana Lopes as prime minister.[30]
Fall of the government
Santana Lopes government was marked with deep disagreements and disputes within his own party, the Social Democratic Party, which began to damage the government's actions.[31] Several cases followed: The so-called "Caso Marcelo", which broke in early October 2004 regarding former PSD leader Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa's TVI punditry show, that ended abruptly with Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa accusing TVI's management board of pressuring him not to be too critical of the then government in his television commentaries,[32][33] being widely considered as an attack on freedom of the press;[34] And the resignation of Youth and Sports Minister, Henrique Chaves, which was a close ally of Santana. This resignation precipitated the fall of the government, with Chaves accusing Santana of not being "loyal and truthful".[35] Just five months after swearing in Santana Lopes as prime minister, President Jorge Sampaio gave a speech in which he accused the government of "contradictions and lack of coordination that contributed to its discredit",[36] and used his power of dissolution of Parliament and called a snap election, so far the only time till date such power was used in Portuguese democracy by a president.[37][38] Santana Lopes disagreed with the President's decision but respected it and announced his resignation.[39] A new election was called, by the President, for 20 February 2005.[40]
See also
Further reading
- Freire, André (November 2004). "Issue Voting in Portugal: The 2002 Legislative Elections". West European Politics. 27 (5): 779–800. doi:10.1080/0140238042000283328. S2CID 154614163.
Notes
- The Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Ecologist Party "The Greens" (PEV) contested the 1999 election in a coalition called Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU) and won a combined 9% of the vote and elected 17 MPs to parliament.
- Results presented here exclude abstention (19.7%). With their inclusion results are: PS: 32.8%; PSD: 26.1%; CDS-PP: 6.5%; CDU: 5.4%; BE: 2.4%; Others/Invalid: 7.1%.
- Portuguese Communist Party (10 MPs) and "The Greens" (2 MPs) ran in coalition.
- Left Bloc / People's Democratic Union joint electoral list only in Madeira.
- The National Solidarity Party (PSN) ran a list in Vila Real district, but dropped out before election day and got just 7 votes. In the certified results, the votes are counted as invalid.
- The total vote count from the National Electoral Commission (CNE) is incorrect. In the results table and bar box, the correct number for the sum of votes was used to calculate the percentages for the different parties.