2010 RF12
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NASA's Near Earth Program estimates its size to be 7 meters (23 feet) in diameter with a mass of around 500 tonnes.[4] 2010 RF12 will make many more close approaches to Earth.[3] Around 6 September 2095 it will pass 52000±180000 km from Earth.[3][9] An asteroid roughly 7-meters in diameter impacting Earth would cause very little danger of harm, but a rather impressive fireball is expected (estimated in the risk table as nearly 9 KT of energy release[4]) as the rock airbursts in the upper atmosphere. Pebble sized fragments would likely fall to the ground at terminal velocity.[12] The power of the airburst would be somewhere between the 2–4 m Sutter's Mill meteorite and the 17 m Chelyabinsk meteor (which had 440 KT equivalent energy).[13] The approach in 2096 is poorly known because it is dependent on the September 2095 Earth approach.
| Date | Impact probability (1 in) |
JPL Horizons nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
NEODyS nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
MPC nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
Find_Orb nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
uncertainty region (3-sigma) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2095-09-05 23:46 | 10 | 0.00035 AU (52 thousand km) | 0.0008 AU (120 thousand km)[14] | 0.00066 AU (99 thousand km) | 0.00087 AU (130,000 km)[15] | ±180 thousand km[16] |
| 2096-09-04 21:50 | 22000 | 0.84 AU (126 million km)[17] | 0.18 AU (27 million km)[18] | 0.36 AU (54 million km) | 0.19 AU (28 million km)[19] | ±414 million km[17] |
On 17 February 2059 the asteroid will pass within 3.5 million km from Earth[3] and reach about apparent magnitude 22.6 by late February. On 10 September 1915 it passed 463000±30000 km from Earth.[3]
See also
- 2010 RX30, a similar-sized asteroid that passed Earth the same day
- 2000 SG344, another near-Earth asteroid (may be Saturn V stage IV rocket booster)
- 2006 JY26
- Asteroid impact prediction
- List of asteroid close approaches to Earth, for other close approaches
- Earth-grazing fireball
- Meteoroid
- Dark comet
