2010 RF12
Small risk–listed near-Earth asteroid
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
2010 RF12 is a very small asteroid, classified as a near-Earth object of the Apollo group, that passed between Earth and the Moon on 8 September 2010, at 21:12 UTC, approaching Earth within 79,000 kilometres (49,000 mi) above Antarctica.[5] The asteroid was discovered by the Mount Lemmon Survey near Tucson, Arizona on 5 September 2010 along with 2010 RX30.[1][6] Based on a short 7-day observation arc from that apparation, it was listed for 12 years on the Sentry Risk Table as the asteroid with the greatest known probability (5%) of impacting Earth.[7][note 1] 2010 RF12 was rediscovered in August 2022,[8][1] and now has a 12-year observation arc and a much better known orbit. As of the December 2022 solution which accounts for nongravitational forces,[3] there is a 1-in-10 chance of an Earth impact on 5 September 2095.[4]
| Date | Impact probability |
JPL Horizons nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
uncertainty region (3-sigma) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2095-09-06 00:06 ± 00:20 | 1:10 | 0.00035 AU (52 thousand km)[3] | ±180 thousand km[9] |
| Discovery[1][2] | |
|---|---|
| Discovered by | Mount Lemmon Srvy. |
| Discovery site | Mount Lemmon Obs. |
| Discovery date | 5 September 2010 |
| Designations | |
| 2010 RF12 | |
| NEO · Apollo[1][3] | |
| Orbital characteristics[3] | |
| Epoch 2025-Nov-21 (JD 2461000.5) | |
| Uncertainty parameter 0 (MPC)[1] 2 (JPL)[3] | |
| Observation arc | 11.98 years |
| Aphelion | 1.261 AU |
| Perihelion | 0.86158 AU |
| 1.0615 AU | |
| Eccentricity | 0.18831 |
| 1.094 yr (399.445 d) | |
| 266.1° | |
| 0° 54m 4.68s / day | |
| Inclination | 0.88267° |
| 163.69° | |
| 2026-Mar-05[3] | |
| 267.44° | |
| Earth MOID | 0.00060 AU (90 thousand km; 0.23 LD) |
| Physical characteristics | |
| 7 m[4] 6–12 meters (CNEOS) | |
| 28.42[1][3] | |
In 2023, 2010 RF12 was identified as a possible dark comet.[10] Dark comets are asteroids that exhibit comet-like acceleration, but visually appear as asteroids, with no coma or tail.[11] Astronomers who study them believe the acceleration is caused by outgassing on the sunlit side.[11]
Description
NASA's Near Earth Program estimates its size to be 7 meters (23 feet) in diameter with a mass of around 500 tonnes.[4] 2010 RF12 will make many more close approaches to Earth.[3] Around 6 September 2095 it will pass 52000±180000 km from Earth.[3][9] An asteroid roughly 7-meters in diameter impacting Earth would cause very little danger of harm, but a rather impressive fireball is expected (estimated in the risk table as nearly 9 KT of energy release[4]) as the rock airbursts in the upper atmosphere. Pebble sized fragments would likely fall to the ground at terminal velocity.[12] The power of the airburst would be somewhere between the 2–4 m Sutter's Mill meteorite and the 17 m Chelyabinsk meteor (which had 440 KT equivalent energy).[13] The approach in 2096 is poorly known because it is dependent on the September 2095 Earth approach.
| Date | Impact probability (1 in) |
JPL Horizons nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
NEODyS nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
MPC nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
Find_Orb nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
uncertainty region (3-sigma) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2095-09-05 23:46 | 10 | 0.00035 AU (52 thousand km) | 0.0008 AU (120 thousand km)[14] | 0.00066 AU (99 thousand km) | 0.00087 AU (130,000 km)[15] | ±180 thousand km[16] |
| 2096-09-04 21:50 | 22000 | 0.84 AU (126 million km)[17] | 0.18 AU (27 million km)[18] | 0.36 AU (54 million km) | 0.19 AU (28 million km)[19] | ±414 million km[17] |
On 17 February 2059 the asteroid will pass within 3.5 million km from Earth[3] and reach about apparent magnitude 22.6 by late February. On 10 September 1915 it passed 463000±30000 km from Earth.[3]
See also
- 2010 RX30, a similar-sized asteroid that passed Earth the same day
- 2000 SG344, another near-Earth asteroid (may be Saturn V stage IV rocket booster)
- 2006 JY26
- Asteroid impact prediction
- List of asteroid close approaches to Earth, for other close approaches
- Earth-grazing fireball
- Meteoroid
- Dark comet
Notes
- Many small and harmless asteroids (less than ~10 meters in diameter) impact Earth every year but very few are discovered and predicted, see Asteroid impact prediction.
