2012 United States Senate election in Nevada
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The 2012 United States Senate election in Nevada was held on Tuesday, November 6, 2012, concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and the 2012 presidential election. The primary election was held on June 12, 2012.
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November 6, 2012
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| Turnout | 57.1% (voting eligible)[1] | ||||||||||||||||
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  Heller: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Berkley: 40–50% 50–60% | |||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Dean Heller, who was appointed to his seat in May 2011 following the resignation of Senator John Ensign, was narrowly elected to a full term over Representative Shelley Berkley, despite President Barack Obama carrying the state by 6.7% in the concurrent presidential election. As a result, Heller became the only Republican Senate candidate in 2012 to win in a state that was lost by the Republican presidential candidate. With a margin of 1.2%, this election was the second-closest race of the 2012 Senate election cycle, behind only the election in North Dakota.
Despite the resignation of Ensign, this was not a special election. Nevada was the only state that had vacancy in Senate election already regularly scheduled for 2012. As of 2026, this is the last time that Republicans won a U.S. Senate election in Nevada.
Background
Ensign was re-elected to the United States Senate in 2006 against Jack Carter, son of former president Jimmy Carter, 55% to 41%. His re-election campaign was expected to be complicated after it was revealed in 2009 that he had been involved in an extramarital affair with the wife of one of his campaign staffers, allegedly made payments to the woman's family and arranged work for her husband to cover himself.[2][3]
The Senate Ethics Committee was to investigate Ensign, and his poll numbers declined significantly.[4][5] There was speculation that he might resign before the election, but he initially said he would run for reelection.[6] On March 7, 2011, Ensign announced that he would not seek reelection,[7] and on April 22, he announced that he would resign effective May 3.[8]
Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval appointed U.S. Representative Dean Heller to fill the vacancy created by Ensign's resignation. Heller took office on May 9, 2011.[9]
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominated
- Dean Heller, incumbent U.S. senator, former U.S. representative, former Nevada secretary of state and former state assemblyman[10][11]
Eliminated in primary
Declined
- Sharron Angle, former state assembly member and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2010[13]
- John Chachas, businessman[14]
- John Ensign, former U.S. senator[7]
- Sue Lowden, former state senator and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2010[15]
- Brian Krolicki, lieutenant governor[16]
- Jon Porter, former U.S representative[10]
- Danny Tarkanian, businessman, nominee for Secretary of State of Nevada in 2006 and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2010 (running for the 4th district)[10]
Polling
Hypothetical polling
Primary
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Sharron Angle |
John Chachas |
John Ensign |
Dean Heller |
Brian Krolicki |
Sue Lowden |
Danny Tarkanian |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[17] | January 3–5, 2011 | 400 | ±4.9% | 9% | 5% | 20% | 30% | 6% | 12% | 10% | 8% |
Appointment preference
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Sue Lowden |
Brian Sandoval |
Danny Tarkanian |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon/LVJR[18] | October 8, 2009 | 4% | 24% | 14% | 17% | 17% | 21% |
Primaries with Ensign
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Ensign |
Dean Heller |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[19] | October 7–9, 2010 | 400 | ±4.9% | 45% | 37% | –– | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling[17] | January 3–5, 2011 | 400 | ±4.9% | 34% | 52% | –– | 13% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Ensign |
Brian Krolicki |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[19] | October 7–9, 2010 | 400 | ±4.9% | 55% | 27% | –– | 18% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Dean Heller (incumbent) | 88,958 | 86.3 | |
| Republican | Sherry Brooks | 5,356 | 5.2 | |
| None of These Candidates | 3,358 | 3.3 | ||
| Republican | Eddie "In Liberty" Hamilton | 2,628 | 2.6 | |
| Republican | Richard Charles | 2,295 | 2.2 | |
| Republican | Carlo "Nakusa" Poliak | 512 | 0.5 | |
| Total votes | 103,107 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominated
- Shelley Berkley, U.S. representative[21]
Eliminated in primary
- Steve Brown, businessman[12]
- Barry Ellsworth, renewable energy executive[22][23][24]
- Louis Macias, art dealer[12]
- Nancy Price, former regent of the Nevada System of Higher Education and Democratic nominee for the 2nd congressional district in 2010[12]
Withdrew
- Byron Georgiou, businessman[25]
Declined
- Catherine Cortez Masto, Nevada Attorney General[10]
- Oscar Goodman, former Mayor of Las Vegas
- Kate Marshall, Nevada State Treasurer[10]
- Ross Miller, Secretary of State of Nevada[11][26][27]
- Dina Titus, former U.S. Representative and nominee for Governor in 2006 (running for the 1st district)
Polling
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Shelley Berkley |
Byron Georgiou |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[28] | April 21–24, 2011 | 300 | ±5.7% | 65% | 8% | –– | 27% |
| Public Policy Polling[29] | July 28–31, 2011 | 400 | ±4.9% | 71% | 6% | –– | 23% |
Results
Berkley—80–90%
Berkley—70–80%
Berkley—60–70%
Berkley—50–60%
Berkley—40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Shelley Berkley | 62,081 | 79.5 | |
| Democratic | Nancy Price | 4,210 | 5.4 | |
| Democratic | Steve Brown | 3,998 | 5.1 | |
| None of These Candidates | 3,637 | 4.7 | ||
| Democratic | Barry Ellsworth | 2,491 | 3.2 | |
| Democratic | Louis Macias | 1,714 | 2.2 | |
| Total votes | 78,131 | 100 | ||
General election
Candidates
- Shelley Berkley (D), U.S. representative
- Dean Heller (R), incumbent U.S. senator
- David Lory VanDerBeek (Independent American Party of Nevada), therapist[30]
Campaign
On July 9, the United States House Committee on Ethics voted unanimously to form an investigative subcommittee to see whether Berkley used her official position to advocate for policy that benefited her family's financial situation.[31] More specifically, Berkley was accused of pushing healthcare legislation that would benefit her husband's medical practice as well as she was blamed for her efforts to block the closure of a kidney transplant center where her husband was employed.[32]
Debates
The first Berkley-Heller debate was on September 27, 2012. They met again in Las Vegas on October 11 and on Jon Ralston's "Face to Face" program on October 15.
- Complete video of debate, September 27, 2012 - C-SPAN
- Complete video of debate, October 11, 2012 - C-SPAN
Fundraising
| Candidate (party) | Receipts | Disbursements | Cash on hand | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dean Heller (R) | $8,447,489 | $6,510,874 | $1,936,618 | $0 |
| Shelley Berkley (D) | $8,779,074 | $8,947,424 | $924,918 | $0 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[33] | ||||
Top contributors
| Shelly Berkley | Contribution | Dean Heller | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| EMILY's List | $93,049 | Las Vegas Sands | $43,750 |
| NORPAC | $59,750 | MGM Resorts International | $35,500 |
| MGM Resorts International | $53,700 | Alliance Resource Partners | $34,500 |
| DaVita Inc. | $49,300 | Crow Holdings | $30,000 |
| Diamond Resorts | $44,000 | Elliott Management Corporation | $29,413 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | $27,000 | Brady Industries | $25,000 |
| Caesars Entertainment | $26,000 | Mewbourne Oil Co | $25,000 |
| Fresenius Medical Care | $24,500 | Wynn Resorts | $22,500 |
| Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck | $23,650 | Southwest Gas | $21,800 |
| Station Casinos | $20,200 | Bank of America | $20,500 |
Top industries
| Shelley Berkley | Contribution | Dean Heller | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lawyers/law firms | $607,407 | Leadership PACs | $379,718 |
| Pro-Israel | $384,580 | Retired | $300,560 |
| Health professionals | $369,954 | Financial Institutions | $217,084 |
| Women's issues | $309,817 | Real estate | $206,362 |
| Leadership PACs | $292,500 | Casinos/gambling | $205,832 |
| Retired | $281,490 | Oil & gas | $187,500 |
| Real estate | $261,779 | Insurance | $182,155 |
| Financial institutions | $228,393 | Lobbyists | $159,812 |
| Casinos/gambling | $227,350 | Mining | $149,745 |
| Lobbyists | $175,147 | Health professionals | $132,450 |
Polling
View source data.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Dean Heller (R) |
Shelley Berkley (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[35] | January 3–5, 2011 | 932 | ±3.2% | 51% | 38% | — | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling[36] | April 21–24, 2011 | 491 | ±4.4% | 47% | 43% | — | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling[37] | July 28–31, 2011 | 601 | ±4.0% | 46% | 43% | — | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling[38] | October 20–23, 2011 | 500 | ±4.4% | 45% | 45% | — | 10% |
| Cannon Survey Center[39] | December 12–20, 2011 | 600 | ±4.0% | 43% | 44% | — | 6.9% |
| Rasmussen Reports[40] | March 19, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 47% | 40% | 2% | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling[41] | March 29 – April 1, 2012 | 553 | ±4.2% | 46% | 43% | — | 12% |
| Rasmussen Reports[42] | April 30, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 51% | 40% | 2% | 8% |
| NBC News/Marist[43] | May 22–24, 2012 | 1,040 | ±3.0% | 46% | 44% | — | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling[44] | June 7–10, 2012 | 500 | ±4.4% | 44% | 43% | — | 13% |
| Magellan Strategies[45] | July 16–17, 2012 | 665 | ±3.8% | 45% | 42% | — | 13% |
| Rasmussen Reports[46] | July 24, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 51% | 42% | 2% | 5% |
| LVRJ/Survey USA[47] | August 16–21, 2012 | 869 | ±3.4% | 44% | 39% | 9% | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling[48] | August 23–26, 2012 | 831 | ±3.4% | 47% | 45% | — | 8% |
| Rasmussen Reports[49] | September 18, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 42% | 41% | 4% | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling[50] | September 18–20, 2012 | 501 | ±4.4% | 44% | 48% | — | 8% |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist[51] | September 23–25, 2012 | 984 | ±3.1% | 49% | 43% | 1% | 6% |
| We Ask America[52] | September 25–27, 2012 | 1,152 | ±3.1% | 45% | 45% | — | 10% |
| Gravis Marketing[53] | October 3, 2012 | 1,006 | ±3.1% | 53% | 36% | — | 12% |
| Precision Opinion[54] | October 6, 2012 | 1,521 | ±2.5% | 45% | 43% | — | 12% |
| LVRJ/Survey USA[55] | October 3–8, 2012 | 1,222 | ±2.9% | 47% | 39% | 8% | 6% |
| Rasmussen Reports[56] | October 8, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 48% | 45% | 3% | 4% |
| Suffolk[57] | October 6–9, 2012 | 500 | ±4.4% | 40% | 37% | 7% | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[58] | October 8–10, 2012 | 594 | ±4.0% | 47% | 44% | 4% | 5% |
| LVRJ/Survey USA[59] | October 11–15, 2012 | 806 | ±3.5% | 46% | 40% | 8% | 6% |
| Rasmussen Reports[60] | October 15, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 50% | 43% | 4% | 3% |
| Rasmussen Reports[61] | October 23, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 50% | 45% | 1% | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling[62] | October 22–24, 2012 | 636 | ±3.9% | 44% | 44% | 7% | 5% |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist[63] | October 23–24, 2012 | 1,042 | ±2.8% | 48% | 45% | 2% | 6% |
| LVRJ/SurveyUSA[64] | October 23–29, 2012 | 1,212 | ±2.9% | 46% | 40% | 10% | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling[65] | November 3–4, 2012 | 750 | ±3.6% | 48% | 46% | 4% | 1% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Dean Heller (R) |
Byron Georgiou (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[36] | April 21–24, 2011 | 491 | ±4.4% | 52% | 28% | –– | 20% |
| Magellan Strategies (R)[66] | June 21–22, 2011 | 720 | ±3.65% | 46% | 33% | –– | 21% |
| Public Policy Polling[37] | July 28–31, 2011 | 601 | ±4.0% | 48% | 31% | –– | 20% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Dean Heller (R) |
Oscar Goodman (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[35] | January 3–5, 2011 | 932 | ±3.2% | 45% | 38% | –– | 16% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Dean Heller (R) |
Catherine Cortez Masto (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[35] | January 3–5, 2011 | 932 | ±3.2% | 46% | 37% | –– | 16% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Dean Heller (R) |
Ross Miller (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[35] | January 3–5, 2011 | 932 | ±3.2% | 46% | 34% | –– | 21% |
with John Ensign
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Ensign (R) |
Shelley Berkley (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[67] | January 11–12, 2010 | 763 | ±3.6% | 49% | 40% | –– | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling[35] | January 3–5, 2011 | 932 | ±3.2% | 42% | 45% | –– | 13% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Ensign (R) |
Catherine Cortez Masto (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[68] | July 16–18, 2010 | 630 | ±3.9% | 48% | 38% | –– | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[35] | January 3–5, 2011 | 932 | ±3.2% | 42% | 44% | –– | 14% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Ensign (R) |
Oscar Goodman (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[67] | January 11–12, 2010 | 763 | ±3.6% | 43% | 41% | –– | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling[35] | January 3–5, 2011 | 932 | ±3.2% | 35% | 45% | –– | 20% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Ensign (R) |
Ross Miller (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[67] | January 11–12, 2010 | 763 | ±3.6% | 47% | 36% | –– | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling[35] | January 3–5, 2011 | 932 | ±3.2% | 39% | 40% | –– | 21% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Ensign (R) |
Dina Titus (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[68] | July 16–18, 2010 | 630 | ±3.9% | 51% | 41% | –– | 8% |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[69] | Tossup | November 1, 2012 |
| Inside Elections[70] | Tilt R | November 2, 2012 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[71] | Lean R | November 5, 2012 |
| Real Clear Politics[72] | Tossup | November 5, 2012 |
Results
On election day, Heller edged out Berkley by just over a point; at the same time Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney by 6.7%, becoming the only Republican in 2012 to win a Senate seat in a state that voted for Obama in the presidential election.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Dean Heller (incumbent) | 457,656 | 45.87 | –9.49 | |
| Democratic | Shelley Berkley | 446,080 | 44.71 | +3.72 | |
| Independent American | David Lory VanDerBeek | 48,792 | 4.89 | +3.56 | |
| None of These Candidates | 45,277 | 4.54 | +3.12 | ||
| Majority | 11,576 | 1.16 | –13.21 | ||
| Total votes | 997,805 | 100.0 | |||
| Republican hold | Swing | –6.60 | |||
By county
| County | Dean Heller Republican |
Shelley Berkley Democratic |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Carson City | 13,488 | 58.3% | 7,510 | 32.5% | 2,135 | 9.2% | 5,978 | 25.8% | 23,133 |
| Churchill | 7,069 | 69.6% | 2,013 | 19.8% | 1,081 | 10.6% | 5,056 | 49.8% | 10,163 |
| Clark | 277,459 | 40.9% | 338,629 | 50.0% | 61,604 | 9.1% | -61,170 | -9.1% | 677,692 |
| Douglas | 16,644 | 64.5% | 6,952 | 27.0% | 2,194 | 8.5% | 9,692 | 37.5% | 25,790 |
| Elko | 11,840 | 74.8% | 2,653 | 16.8% | 1,344 | 8.7% | 9,187 | 58.0% | 15,837 |
| Esmeralda | 308 | 71.0% | 62 | 14.3% | 64 | 14.8% | 246 | 56.7% | 434 |
| Eureka | 636 | 79.1% | 87 | 10.8% | 81 | 10.1% | 549 | 68.3% | 804 |
| Humboldt | 3,876 | 68.1% | 1,124 | 19.8% | 691 | 12.1% | 2,752 | 48.3% | 5,691 |
| Lander | 1,567 | 72.9% | 361 | 16.8% | 221 | 10.3% | 1,206 | 56.1% | 2,149 |
| Lincoln | 1,532 | 71.9% | 347 | 16.3% | 251 | 11.8% | 1,185 | 55.6% | 2,130 |
| Lyon | 13,703 | 64.4% | 5,404 | 25.4% | 2,166 | 10.2% | 8,299 | 39.0% | 21,273 |
| Mineral | 1,059 | 52.4% | 612 | 30.3% | 349 | 17.3% | 447 | 22.1% | 2,020 |
| Nye | 9,561 | 55.4% | 5,267 | 30.5% | 2,438 | 14.2% | 4,294 | 24.9% | 17,266 |
| Pershing | 1,194 | 64.3% | 396 | 21.3% | 268 | 14.5% | 798 | 43.0% | 1,858 |
| Storey | 1,375 | 59.5% | 673 | 29.1% | 262 | 11.3% | 702 | 30.4% | 2,310 |
| Washoe | 93,778 | 50.5% | 73,164 | 39.4% | 18,625 | 10.0% | 20,614 | 11.1% | 185,567 |
| White Pine | 2,567 | 69.6% | 826 | 22.4% | 295 | 8.0% | 1,741 | 47.2% | 3,688 |
| Totals | 457,656 | 45.9% | 446,080 | 44.7% | 94,069 | 9.4% | 11,576 | 1.2% | 997,805 |
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
By congressional district
Heller won two of four congressional districts.[74]
| District | Berkley | Heller | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 58.57% | 31.6% | Dina Titus |
| 2nd | 34.27% | 55.83% | Mark Amodei |
| 3rd | 43.34% | 47.93% | Joe Heck |
| 4th | 48.26% | 42.38% | Steven Horsford |
See also
Notes
- In May 2011, Heller was appointed by Governor Brian Sandoval to fill the vacancy caused by the resignation of Senator John Ensign.