Wikiwand AI

2018 United States Senate election in Nevada

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The 2018 United States Senate election in Nevada took place November 6, 2018, to elect one of two U.S. senators from Nevada. Incumbent Republican senator Dean Heller lost re-election to a second full term, being defeated by Democratic nominee Jacky Rosen.

Quick facts Turnout, Nominee ...
2018 United States Senate election in Nevada
← 2012
November 6, 2018
2024 →
Turnout62.26% Increase
 
Nominee Jacky Rosen Dean Heller
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 490,071 441,202
Percentage 50.41% 45.38%
Rosen:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
     80–90%      >90%
Heller:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
     80–90%      >90%
U.S. senator before election

Dean Heller
Republican

 Elected U.S. Senator

Jacky Rosen
Democratic

Close

Heller had considered a bid for Nevada governor but instead announced he would run for reelection to a second full term. This was the only Republican-held U.S. Senate seat up for election in 2018 in a state Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election, and one of two Democratic flips in the 2018 U.S. Senate elections.[1][2] Rosen's victory marked the first time that Nevada had been represented by two women in the United States Senate, and the first time a Democrat had won the Class 1 Senate seat in Nevada since 1994 (as well as the first time both Senate seats were held by Democrats since 2001). Heller was the only Republican incumbent to lose a Senate seat in 2018; he later unsuccessfully ran in the 2022 Republican primary for governor of Nevada.

The candidate filing deadline was March 16, 2018, and the primary election was held on June 12.[3]

Background

Nevada is a swing state that once leaned slightly rightward, having voted for George W. Bush twice. But since 2008 it has seen the opposite trend, giving Barack Obama a seven-point victory in 2012 while simultaneously electing Heller to the Senate by one point. Obama also carried Nevada in 2008 by a 12.5% margin. In 2016, the state shifted rightward again, still voting for Hillary Clinton, but only by two points, although Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto managed to win the seat of retiring Democratic Senate leader Harry Reid. Because of the consistent swing nature of the state, many cited Heller as the most vulnerable incumbent Republican in the U.S. Senate up for reelection in 2018, a year with few Republicans in that position; President Donald Trump even warned that if Heller failed to vote to pass the GOP Health care bill to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, he could well lose his seat in the next election.[4][5]

At the end of September 2018, the Brett Kavanaugh Supreme Court nomination became a major element of the campaign. Heller made noncommittal remarks[6] and a significant campaign was deployed to criticize his support for Kavanaugh.[7][8]

Rosen is only the 37th sitting House freshman to win a Senate election, the first female representative to do so, and the first one-term House Democrat to become a senator-elect since James Abourezk in 1972.[9]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Sherry Brooks
  • Sarah Gazala, teacher[10]
  • Vic Harrell
  • Tom Heck
  • Dean Heller, incumbent U.S. senator[11]

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Dean Heller

Federal officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Governors

State officials

State senators

State assembly members

Local officials

Individuals

Groups

Danny Tarkanian (withdrew)

Federal officials

Governors

Polling

Hypothetical polling

with Danny Tarkanian

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Dean
Heller		 Danny
Tarkanian		 Undecided
JMC Analytics[33] October 24–26, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 38% 44% 17%
JMC Analytics[34] August 24–25, 2017 700 ± 3.7% 31% 39% 31%
The Tarrance Group (R-Heller)[35] August 14–16, 2017 300 ± 5.8% 55% 33% 12%
Close

Results

Results by county:
Map legend
  •   Heller—70–80%
  •   Heller—60–70%
  •   Heller—50–60%
More information Party, Candidate ...
Republican primary results[36]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Dean Heller (incumbent) 99,509 69.97%
Republican Tom Heck 26,296 18.49%
Republican None of These Candidates 5,978 4.20%
Republican Sherry Brooks 5,145 3.62%
Republican Sarah Gazala 4,011 2.82%
Republican Vic Harrell 1,282 0.90%
Total votes 142,221 100.00%
Close

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

Jacky Rosen

Federal officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Labor unions

Organizations

Websites and newspapers

Results

Results by county:
Map legend
  •   Rosen—80–90%
  •   Rosen—70–80%
  •   Rosen—60–70%
  •   Rosen—50–60%
  •   Rosen—30–40%
  •   Rosen/Knight tie—<30%
More information Party, Candidate ...
Democratic primary results[36]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jacky Rosen 110,567 77.11%
Democratic None of These Candidates 10,078 7.03%
Democratic David Knight 6,346 4.43%
Democratic Allen Rheinhart 4,782 3.33%
Democratic Jesse Sbaih 4,540 3.17%
Democratic Bobby Mahendra 3,835 2.67%
Democratic Danny Burleigh 3,244 2.26%
Total votes 143,392 100.00%
Close

Independents

Candidates

Declared

  • Kamau Bakari[79]
  • Barry Michaels, businessman, convicted felon and perennial candidate[80]

General election

Debates

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[81] Tossup October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[82] Tilt D (flip) November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[83] Lean D (flip) November 5, 2018
CNN[84] Tossup October 30, 2018
RealClearPolitics[85] Tossup November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[86] Tossup October 26, 2018
Fox News[87] Tossup October 30, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[88] Tossup November 6, 2018
Close

Endorsements

Jacky Rosen (D)

Federal officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Websites and newspapers

Dean Heller (R)

Federal officials

U.S. senators

Governors

State officials

State senators

State assembly members

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations

Newspapers

Fundraising

More information Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018, Candidate (party) ...
Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party) Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Dean Heller (R) Incumbent $14,525,094 $12,538,859 $2,211,457
Jacky Rosen (D) $21,571,221 $20,817,629 $768,851
Source: Federal Election Commission[112]
Close

Polling

%support01020304050602017/06/252018/09/172018/10/162018/11/04Dean HellerJacky RosenTim HaganNone of theseOther/UndecidedOpinion polling for the 2018 United States S...
View source data.
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Dean
Heller (R)		 Jacky
Rosen (D)		 Tim
Hagan (L)		 None of
these		 Other Undecided
HarrisX[113] November 3–5, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 45% 47% – – – –
HarrisX[114] November 2–4, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 46% 46% – – – –
Emerson College[115] November 1–4, 2018 1,197 ± 3.0% 45% 49% – – 3% 4%
HarrisX[116] November 1–3, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 46% 45% – – – –
HarrisX[117] October 31 – November 2, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 45% 44% – – – –
HarrisX[118] October 30 – November 1, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 46% 43% – – – –
Trafalgar Group (R)[119] October 29 – November 1, 2018 2,587 ± 1.9% 49% 46% – – 2% 3%
HarrisX[120] October 29–31, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 45% 45% – – – –
HarrisX[121] October 24–30, 2018 1,400 ± 2.6% 43% 46% – – – –
CNN/SSRS[122] October 24–29, 2018 622 LV ± 4.8% 45% 48% 2% 4% 0% 1%
807 RV ± 4.2% 41% 44% 4% 8% 0% 3%
Gravis Marketing[123] October 24–26, 2018 773 ± 3.5% 45% 47% – – – 7%
Ipsos[124] October 12–19, 2018 1,137 ± 3.0% 47% 41% – – 8% 4%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)[125] October 15–16, 2018 648 ± 3.9% 46% 48% – – – 7%
Vox Populi Polling[126] October 13–15, 2018 614 ± 3.7% 49% 51% – – – –
Emerson College[127] October 10–12, 2018 625 ± 4.2% 48% 41% – – 3% 8%
NYT Upshot/Siena College[128] October 8–10, 2018 642 ± 4.0% 47% 45% – – 1% 7%
NBC News/Marist[129] September 30 – October 3, 2018 574 LV ± 5.5% 44% 42% 8% 2% <1% 4%
46% 44% – 5% 1% 4%
780 RV ± 4.5% 42% 41% 8% 3% <1% 6%
45% 43% – 6% 1% 6%
Kaiser Family Foundation/SSRS[130] September 19 – October 2, 2018 513 ± 5.0% 45% 44% – – 4% 7%
CNN/SSRS[131] September 25–29, 2018 693 LV ± 4.6% 43% 47% 4% 5% 0% 1%
851 RV ± 4.1% 40% 43% 5% 10% 0% 2%
Ipsos[132] September 7–17, 2018 1,039 ± 4.0% 46% 43% – – 4% 8%
Gravis Marketing[133] September 11–12, 2018 700 ± 3.7% 45% 47% – – – 8%
Suffolk University[134][a] September 5–10, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 41% 42% 2% 2% 4%[135] 9%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)[136] August 20–21, 2018 528 ± 4.3% 43% 48% – – – –
Suffolk University[137] July 24–29, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 41% 40% 2% 5% 3%[138] 9%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[139] June 11 – July 2, 2018 1,097 ± 5.5% 45% 48% – – – 7%
Gravis Marketing[140] June 23–26, 2018 630 ± 3.9% 41% 45% – – – 14%
Public Policy Polling (D-Health Care Voter)[141] April 30 – May 1, 2018 637 ± 3.9% 42% 44% – – – 14%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[142] April 2–23, 2018 1,332 ± 5.0% 44% 50% – – – 6%
The Mellman Group[143] April 12–19, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 40% 39% – – – 21%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)[144] March 15–17, 2018 720 ± 3.7% 39% 44% – – – 17%
Public Policy Polling[145] June 23–25, 2017 648 ± 3.9% 41% 42% – – – 17%
Close
Hypothetical polling
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Dean
Heller (R)		 Generic
Democrat		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D-Our Lives on the Line)[146] July 26–27, 2017 847 ± 3.6% 31% 50% 18%
Public Policy Polling (D-Save My Care)[147] June 13–14, 2017 706 ± 3.4% 39% 46% 14%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Generic
Republican		 Generic
Democrat		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)[144] March 15–17, 2018 720 ± 3.7% 41% 47% 12%
Close

with Dina Titus

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Dean
Heller (R)		 Dina
Titus (D)		 Undecided
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research[148] June 23–29, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 47% 45% 8%
Close

Results

Heller carried 15 of Nevada's 17 county-level jurisdictions, but Rosen carried the two largest, Clark (home to Las Vegas) and Washoe (home to Reno). She won Clark County by over 92,000 votes, almost double her statewide margin of over 48,900 votes.[149]

More information Party, Candidate ...
United States Senate election in Nevada, 2018[150]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Jacky Rosen 490,071 50.41% +5.70%
Republican Dean Heller (incumbent) 441,202 45.38% −0.49%
None of These Candidates 15,303 1.57% -2.97%
Independent Barry Michaels 9,269 0.95% N/A
Libertarian Tim Hagan 9,196 0.95% N/A
Independent American Kamau Bakari 7,091 0.73% −4.16%
Total votes 972,132 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican
Close

By county

More information County, Jacky Rosen Democratic ...
County Jacky Rosen
Democratic		 Dean Heller
Republican		 None of These
Candidates		 Barry Michaels
Independent		 Tim Hagan
Libertarian		 Kamau Bakari
IAPN		 Margin Total votes
# % # % # % # % # % # % # %
Carson City 9,321 41.07 12,328 54.32 372 1.64 250 1.10 254 1.12 169 0.74 -3,007 -13.25 22,694
Churchill 1,999 20.80 7,042 73.26 218 2.27 145 1.51 116 1.21 92 0.96 -5,042 -52.47 9,612
Clark 359,028 55.06 266,675 40.90 9,810 1.50 5,922 0.91 5,823 0.89 4,786 0.73 92,353 14.16 652,044
Douglas 8,303 31.86 16,742 64.25 388 1.49 224 0.86 266 1.02 134 0.51 -8,439 -32.39 26,057
Elko 2,904 19.14 11,491 75.73 260 1.71 172 1.13 205 1.35 142 0.94 -8,587 -56.59 15,174
Esmeralda 52 14.02 280 75.47 17 4.58 9 2.43 10 2.70 3 0.81 -228 -61.46 371
Eureka 74 9.76 633 83.51 22 2.90 13 1.72 9 1.19 7 0.92 -559 -73.75 758
Humboldt 1,188 21.41 4,022 72.48 139 2.50 78 1.41 71 1.28 51 0.92 -2,834 -51.07 5,549
Lander 350 16.72 1,588 75.87 64 3.06 30 1.43 36 1.72 25 1.19 -1,238 -59.15 2,093
Lincoln 283 14.51 1,547 79.33 62 3.18 27 1.38 21 1.08 10 0.51 -1,264 -64.82 1,950
Lyon 5,526 26.41 14,296 68.32 406 1.94 282 1.35 257 1.23 157 0.75 -8,770 -41.91 20,924
Mineral 570 31.49 1,056 58.34 90 4.97 40 2.21 37 2.04 17 0.94 -486 -26.85 1,810
Nye 4,888 27.93 11,397 65.11 435 2.49 278 1.59 284 1.62 221 1.26 -6,509 -37.19 17,503
Pershing 398 22.56 1,271 72.05 39 2.21 26 1.47 19 1.08 11 0.62 -873 -49.49 1,764
Storey 724 30.68 1,495 63.35 51 2.16 32 1.36 32 1.36 26 1.10 -771 -32.67 2,360
Washoe 93,828 49.85 86,988 46.21 2,829 1.50 1,682 0.89 1,716 0.91 1,184 0.63 6,840 3.63 188,227
White Pine 635 19.59 2,351 72.52 101 3.12 59 1.82 40 1.23 56 1.73 -1,716 -52.93 3,242
Totals 490,071 50.41 441,202 45.38 15,303 1.57 9,269 0.95 9,196 0.95 7,091 0.73 48,869 5.03 972,132
Close

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Rosen won three of four congressional districts.[151]

More information District, Rosen ...
District Rosen Heller Representative
1st 64% 32% Dina Titus
2nd 43% 53% Mark Amodei
3rd 50% 46% Susie Lee
4th 51% 44% Steven Horsford
Close

Notes

  1. [a]
    Archived December 18, 2018, at the Wayback Machine

See also

References

External links

Related Articles

Timelines

Top Qs

Fact Checks