2014 United States Senate election in Mississippi

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The 2014 United States Senate election in Mississippi was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate. Incumbent Republican Senator Thad Cochran, first elected in 1978, ran for re-election to a seventh term.[1] Primary elections were held on June 3, 2014.

Quick facts Nominee, Party ...
2014 United States Senate election in Mississippi

 2008
November 4, 2014 (2014-11-04)
 
Nominee Thad Cochran Travis Childers
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 378,481 239,439
Percentage 59.90% 37.89%

Cochran:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Childers:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

U.S. senator before election

Thad Cochran
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Thad Cochran
Republican

Close

The election was notable for the contentious Republican primary between Cochran and a Tea Party-backed challenger, Chris McDaniel. After neither Cochran nor McDaniel received 50% of the vote in the primary, a runoff election was held on June 24, 2014. After narrowly defeating McDaniel in the runoff, Cochran defeated Democratic nominee Travis Childers, a former congressman, with nearly 60% of the vote.

Background

Thad Cochran was first elected to the Senate with a plurality of the vote in a three-way race in 1978. He was reelected with at least 61% of the vote in 1984, 1990, 1996, 2002, and 2008.

Cochran was the last incumbent senator up for reelection in 2014 to declare whether he would run, causing widespread speculation that he would retire.[2][3] Despite being urged to declare his intentions, Cochran said in August 2013, "I don't have a fixed date. But [I will decide] by the end of the year. You don't want to rush into these things."[2] On November 12, he announced that he would reveal his plans by the end of the month.[4] On December 6, he confirmed that he would run.[1]

Cochran's fundraising ability, powerful Senate committee assignments, and very high approval ratings meant that he was considered "unbeatable".[2] Mississippi Democratic Party Chairman Rickey Cole said that "in the very likely event that he does [run], we don't foresee a major Democratic challenger emerging."[5] Had he chosen to retire, a "stampede" was predicted in the Republican primary[6] and Democrats believed that a "properly positioned" candidate could have been competitive in the general election.[2]

Republican primary

The United States Senate Republican primary election in Mississippi took place on June 3, 2014. Incumbent Republican Senator Thad Cochran, who had served in the position since 1978, ran for reelection to a seventh term.[1] He was challenged for the nomination by State Senator Chris McDaniel, a Tea Party supporter, and Thomas Carey. Cochran and McDaniel received 49.0% and 49.5% of the vote, respectively. Since no candidate won a majority, a June 24 runoff election ensued.

Cochran defeated McDaniel in the runoff, 51% to 49%.[7][8] Controversially, Cochran's campaign invited Democrats to vote in the runoff, and Cochran-affiliated super PACs used racist themes in their primary ads, particularly the super-PAC All Citizens for Mississippi, which was funded (according to F.E.C. filings)[9][10] by a super-PAC affiliated with former governor Haley Barbour.

Primary campaign

Chris McDaniel declared his candidacy on October 17, 2013.[11] He was immediately endorsed by the Club for Growth and Jim DeMint's Senate Conservatives Fund. McDaniel was initially thought to have no chance of beating Cochran in the primary,[2] as summed up by the Jackson Free Press, who remarked that if McDaniel challenged Cochran, it would be the "beginning of [the] end of [his] political career".[12] Republican lobbyist Henry Barbour, the nephew of former governor Haley Barbour, said: "I think he will get his head handed to him, and that will be what he deserves. [But] it's a free country."[13] Rather, McDaniel was believed to have declared his candidacy in the hope that Cochran wouldn't run, so that he could get "first crack" at the support of Tea Party groups and donors ahead of a competitive primary.[12]

Although the race was initially considered uncompetitive, McDaniel proved a serious challenger. Polling showed the lead swinging between the two and it eventually became a "50%-50% race".[14]

The race was considered a marquee establishment-versus-Tea Party fight and significant because Mississippi is the poorest state and Cochran's seniority and appropriating skills contrasted with the junior status of the rest of the state's congressional delegation.[15] McDaniel was endorsed by politicians including Sarah Palin and Rick Santorum and organizations including Citizens United, Club for Growth, FreedomWorks, Madison Project, National Association for Gun Rights, Senate Conservatives Fund and Tea Party Express. By contrast, the Republican establishment rallied around Cochran, who was endorsed by the NRA Political Victory Fund and National Right to Life.

The race was described as "nasty"[16] and full of "bizarre" twists.[17] McDaniel's campaign attacked Cochran for being "an out-of-touch, big-spending Washington insider" and Cochran's replied that "McDaniel's voting record in the state Senate does not match his conservative rhetoric." Each side accused the other of distortions and outright lies.[18]

Cochran ran on his incumbency, seniority and the fact that he would become the Chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee if the Republicans retook control of the Senate.[19][20] In addition to ideological differences, the race also highlighted geographic divides in the state Republican Party.[21][22]

Tea Party blogger scandal

In May 2014, a scandal emerged when Clayton Thomas Kelly, a McDaniel supporter, allegedly entered a nursing home where Cochran's bedridden wife was living and took pictures of her.[16] Kelly posted the images as part of a video on his blog, intending to advance the rumor that Cochran was having affairs while his wife was receiving care.[18][23] Four people were arrested in connection with the incident.[18] The connection to the McDaniel campaign was disputed. One of the arrested included McDaniel ally Mark Mayfield, who was vice chairman of the state's Tea Party.[24] In response, McDaniel said, "the violation of the privacy of Mrs. Cochran [was] out of bounds for politics and reprehensible."[25]

Racism scandal

Quick facts External image ...
External image
image icon The Tea Party Intends To Prevent You From Voting. Several ads such as this one invoked or leveraged racist themes. Several ads of a similar nature were distributed via Twitter and resulted in a request for censure in front of the National GOP. Photo provided via The Hill (newspaper).[26][27]
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A second scandal emerged during the primary when pro-Cochran ads appealed to African American voters by suggesting that Tea Party efforts to prevent Democrats from voting were racially motivated.[28] Charges first surfaced[29] that a small group of elderly Democratic women activists calling themselves Citizens for Progress were behind the controversy, but later facts as well as money trails show that money exchanged hands multiple times between Citizens for Progress[30] and Mississippi Conservatives PAC.

After the fallout of the primary election, Missouri Republican Party chairman Ed Martin wrote an op-ed calling for the censure of Henry Barbour for his role in the funding[31] of racist advertisements. He also called for Barbour's censure at an RNC summer meeting in Chicago.[32]

Senator Ted Cruz appeared on the Mark Levin Show to discuss the Mississippi primary. He called for an investigation,[33] saying, "the ads they ran were racially charged false attacks".[34]

Primary election results

Primary results by county:
Cochran:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
McDaniel:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%

The presence of a third candidate, Thomas Carey, opened the possibility that neither Cochran nor McDaniel would win a majority.[16] Indeed, no candidate did, so a runoff between McDaniel and Cochran was required, and was held on June 24.[35] The runoff was generally seen as advantageous to McDaniel.[36][37]

More information Party, Candidate ...
Republican primary results[38]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Chris McDaniel 157,733 49.46%
Republican Thad Cochran (incumbent) 156,315 49.02%
Republican Thomas Carey 4,854 1.52%
Total votes 318,902 100.00%
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After the election, the Hinds County Sheriff's Office announced it was investigating three McDaniel supporters who were locked inside the local courthouse, where primary ballots were held, on election night.[39] It was later reported that the supporters would face no criminal charges.[40]

Runoff election

Runoff results by county:
Cochran:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
McDaniel:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%

The runoff was scheduled for June 24, three weeks after the primary. Despite trailing in most of the polls,[41] Cochran won with 51% of the vote to McDaniel's 49%. McDaniel once again won big in his native Pine Belt and in the heavily populated suburban Memphis DeSoto County, but Cochran got a surge in votes from African Americans who took advantage of the mixed primary. Many credited Cochran's win to the increase in black voters. Cochran won by 3,532 votes in the most Democratic, African-American precincts in Hinds County (the state's largest county, and home to Jackson). These precincts made up nearly half of Cochran's margin of victory.[42]

More information Party, Candidate ...
Republican primary runoff results[43]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Thad Cochran (incumbent) 194,932 51.00% +1.98%
Republican Chris McDaniel 187,265 49.00% −0.46%
Total votes 382,197 100.00% 0.00%
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Endorsements

Thad Cochran
Chris McDaniel

U.S. senators

  • Rick Santorum, former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania, candidate for 2012 Republican presidential nomination

U.S. representatives

  • Ron Paul, former U.S. representative from Texas, candidate for 2012 presidential nomination[50]

U.S. governors

  • Sarah Palin, former governor of Alaska, Republican vice-presidential candidate in 2008[51]

Mississippi state legislators

Local officeholders

Individuals

Organizations

Media

  • Mississippi Gun News[63]
  • Right Wing News[64]

Democratic primary

Former Congressman Travis Childers had stated that he was interested in running, particularly if Cochran retired.[65] With Cochran facing a competitive primary, Childers announced in February 2014 that he was running.[66] Childers won the Democratic primary with 74% of the vote.

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Results

Primary results by county:
  Childers—>90%
  Childers—80–90%
  Childers—70–80%
  Childers—60–70%
  Childers—50–60%
  Childers—40–50%
More information Party, Candidate ...
Democratic primary results[74]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Travis Childers 63,548 73.9%
Democratic Bill Marcy 10,361 12.1%
Democratic William Compton 8,465 9.9%
Democratic Jonathan Rawl 3,492 4.1%
Total votes 85,866 100.0%
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General election

Campaign

Childers campaigning for Senate

Childers described himself as a "moderate to conservative" Democrat, highlighting his vote against the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act and his opposition to new gun-control measures, abortion and same-sex marriage.[75]

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[76] Likely R November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball[77] Safe R November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report[78] Safe R November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics[79] Likely R November 3, 2014
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Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Thad
Cochran (R)
Travis
Childers (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[80] November 15–17, 2013 502 ± 4.4% 50% 33% 17%
Rasmussen Reports[81] March 26–29, 2014 750 ± 4% 48% 31% 9% 12%
Rasmussen Reports[81] June 25–26, 2014 750 ± 4% 46% 34% 10% 9%
Public Policy Polling[82] July 10–13, 2014 691 ± 3.7% 40% 24% 5%[83] 31%
41% 26% 33%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[84] July 5–24, 2014 850 ± 5.7% 47% 32% 17% 5%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[85] August 18 – September 2, 2014 976 ± 4% 46% 31% 9% 15%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[86] September 20 – October 1, 2014 826 ± 4% 46% 35% 3% 16%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[86] October 16–23, 2014 654 ± 7% 50% 28% 2% 20%
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Hypothetical polling

With Cochran

More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Thad
Cochran (R)
Jim
Hood (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[80] November 15–17, 2013 502 ± 4.4% 45% 43% 12%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Thad
Cochran (R)
Ronnie
Musgrove (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[80] November 15–17, 2013 502 ± 4.4% 50% 37% 13%
Close

With Hosemann

More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Delbert
Hosemann (R)
Travis
Childers (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[80] November 15–17, 2013 502 ± 4.4% 46% 36% 19%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Delbert
Hosemann (R)
Jim
Hood (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[80] November 15–17, 2013 502 ± 4.4% 42% 41% 17%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Delbert
Hosemann (R)
Ronnie
Musgrove (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[80] November 15–17, 2013 502 ± 4.4% 46% 38% 16%
Close

With McDaniel

More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chris
McDaniel (R)
Travis
Childers (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[80] November 15–17, 2013 502 ± 4.4% 41% 38% 22%
Rasmussen Reports[81] March 26–29, 2014 750 ± 4% 47% 35% 18%
Public Policy Polling[82] July 10–13, 2014 691 ± 3.7% 36% 37% 4%[83] 23%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chris
McDaniel (R)
Jim
Hood (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[80] November 15–17, 2013 502 ± 4.4% 41% 43% 16%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chris
McDaniel (R)
Ronnie
Musgrove (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[80] November 15–17, 2013 502 ± 4.4% 44% 41% 15%
Close

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
2014 United States Senate election in Mississippi[87]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Thad Cochran (incumbent) 378,481 59.90% −1.54%
Democratic Travis Childers 239,439 37.89% −0.67%
Reform Shawn O'Hara 13,938 2.21% N/A
Total votes 631,858 100.00% N/A
Republican hold
Close

By county

More information County, Thad Cochran Republican ...
County[87] Thad Cochran
Republican
Travis Childers
Democratic
Shawn O'Hara
Reform
Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Adams 4,360 50.61% 4,142 48.08% 113 1.31% 218 2.53% 8,615
Alcorn 4,300 70.76% 1,686 27.74% 91 1.50% 2,614 43.01% 6,077
Amite 2,306 58.53% 1,529 38.81% 105 2.66% 777 19.72% 3,940
Attala 2,508 60.30% 1,575 37.87% 76 1.83% 933 22.43% 4,159
Benton 920 47.94% 970 50.55% 29 1.51% -50 -2.61% 1,919
Bolivar 3,996 46.93% 4,410 51.80% 108 1.27% -414 -4.86% 8,514
Calhoun 2,136 62.71% 1,224 35.94% 46 1.35% 912 26.78% 3,406
Carroll 2,127 68.88% 902 29.21% 59 1.91% 1,225 39.67% 3,088
Chickasaw 2,002 46.56% 2,269 52.77% 29 0.67% -267 -6.21% 4,300
Choctaw 1,521 66.80% 713 31.31% 43 1.89% 808 35.49% 2,277
Claiborne 551 25.29% 1,610 73.89% 18 0.83% -1,059 -48.60% 2,179
Clarke 2,760 66.78% 1,275 30.85% 98 2.37% 1,485 35.93% 4,133
Clay 2,797 43.90% 3,522 55.28% 52 0.82% -725 -11.38% 6,371
Coahoma 2,218 44.71% 2,670 53.82% 73 1.47% -452 -9.11% 4,961
Copiah 3,330 51.91% 2,950 45.99% 135 2.10% 380 5.92% 6,415
Covington 2,940 57.46% 2,000 39.09% 177 3.46% 940 18.37% 5,117
DeSoto 16,920 66.85% 7,535 29.77% 857 3.39% 9,385 37.08% 25,312
Forrest 9,196 64.10% 4,766 33.22% 384 2.68% 4,430 30.88% 14,346
Franklin 1,445 63.43% 794 34.86% 39 1.71% 651 28.58% 2,278
George 3,331 76.52% 728 16.72% 294 6.75% 2,603 59.80% 4,353
Greene 1,708 71.92% 517 21.77% 150 6.32% 1,191 50.15% 2,375
Grenada 3,111 55.83% 2,377 42.66% 84 1.51% 734 13.17% 5,572
Hancock 6,699 73.00% 2,004 21.84% 474 5.17% 4,695 51.16% 9,177
Harrison 22,113 65.80% 10,269 30.56% 1,222 3.64% 11,844 35.25% 33,604
Hinds 20,975 40.98% 29,609 57.85% 600 1.17% -8,634 -16.87% 51,184
Holmes 1,313 29.69% 3,069 69.40% 40 0.90% -1,756 -39.71% 4,422
Humphreys 990 43.65% 1,262 55.64% 16 0.71% -272 -11.99% 2,268
Issaquena 196 51.72% 181 47.76% 2 0.53% 15 3.96% 379
Itawamba 3,259 67.92% 1,452 30.26% 87 1.81% 1,807 37.66% 4,798
Jackson 21,393 70.24% 8,065 26.48% 997 3.27% 13,328 43.76% 30,455
Jasper 2,073 44.29% 2,493 53.27% 114 2.44% -420 -8.97% 4,680
Jefferson 444 23.19% 1,455 75.98% 16 0.84% -1,011 -52.79% 1,915
Jefferson Davis 1,644 41.25% 2,264 56.81% 77 1.93% -620 -15.56% 3,985
Jones 9,444 56.46% 6,540 39.10% 742 4.44% 2,904 17.36% 16,726
Kemper 1,043 45.05% 1,244 53.74% 28 1.21% -201 -8.68% 2,315
Lafayette 6,311 64.87% 3,278 33.70% 139 1.43% 3,033 31.18% 9,728
Lamar 10,399 76.47% 2,786 20.49% 413 3.04% 7,613 55.99% 13,598
Lauderdale 10,359 70.46% 4,109 27.95% 234 1.59% 6,250 42.51% 14,702
Lawrence 2,142 63.17% 1,183 34.89% 66 1.95% 959 28.28% 3,391
Leake 2,667 56.91% 1,923 41.04% 96 2.05% 744 15.88% 4,686
Lee 11,792 62.51% 6,790 35.99% 283 1.50% 5,002 26.51% 18,865
Leflore 2,472 42.34% 3,332 57.06% 35 0.60% -860 -14.73% 5,839
Lincoln 5,278 71.18% 1,987 26.80% 150 2.02% 3,291 44.38% 7,415
Lowndes 8,245 56.37% 6,229 42.59% 152 1.04% 2,016 13.78% 14,626
Madison 16,359 67.08% 7,737 31.73% 290 1.19% 8,622 35.36% 24,386
Marion 4,067 65.65% 1,997 32.24% 131 2.11% 2,070 33.41% 6,195
Marshall 3,130 42.98% 4,007 55.02% 146 2.00% -877 -12.04% 7,283
Monroe 4,552 58.54% 3,150 40.51% 74 0.95% 1,402 18.03% 7,776
Montgomery 1,539 56.05% 1,154 42.02% 53 1.93% 385 14.02% 2,746
Neshoba 4,526 73.71% 1,495 24.35% 119 1.94% 3,031 49.36% 6,140
Newton 3,602 71.82% 1,308 26.08% 105 2.09% 2,294 45.74% 5,015
Noxubee 863 30.37% 1,958 68.90% 21 0.74% -1,095 -38.53% 2,842
Oktibbeha 5,340 58.77% 3,683 40.53% 64 0.70% 1,657 18.23% 9,087
Panola 3,535 51.89% 3,165 46.46% 113 1.66% 370 5.43% 6,813
Pearl River 7,943 73.85% 2,096 19.49% 716 6.66% 5,847 54.37% 10,755
Perry 1,814 66.25% 798 29.15% 126 4.60% 1,016 37.11% 2,738
Pike 4,203 53.74% 3,481 44.51% 137 1.75% 722 9.23% 7,821
Pontotoc 4,539 69.71% 1,830 28.11% 142 2.18% 2,709 41.61% 6,511
Prentiss 2,588 49.00% 2,635 49.89% 59 1.12% -47 -0.89% 5,282
Quitman 998 39.73% 1,464 58.28% 50 1.99% -466 -18.55% 2,512
Rankin 24,552 76.44% 6,840 21.30% 728 2.27% 17,712 55.14% 32,120
Scott 3,117 62.19% 1,803 35.97% 92 1.84% 1,314 26.22% 5,012
Sharkey 539 48.51% 560 50.41% 12 1.08% -21 -1.89% 1,111
Simpson 4,347 62.41% 2,502 35.92% 116 1.67% 1,845 26.49% 6,965
Smith 2,890 67.33% 1,276 29.73% 126 2.94% 1,614 37.60% 4,292
Stone 2,886 71.68% 980 24.34% 160 3.97% 1,906 47.34% 4,026
Sunflower 2,002 39.35% 3,032 59.59% 54 1.06% -1,030 -20.24% 5,088
Tallahatchie 1,340 46.33% 1,509 52.18% 43 1.49% -169 -5.84% 2,892
Tate 3,159 63.56% 1,676 33.72% 135 2.72% 1,483 29.84% 4,970
Tippah 3,243 66.99% 1,513 31.25% 85 1.76% 1,730 35.74% 4,841
Tishomingo 3,088 66.80% 1,425 30.82% 110 2.38% 1,663 35.97% 4,623
Tunica 642 38.60% 995 59.83% 26 1.56% -353 -21.23% 1,663
Union 3,996 69.86% 1,655 28.93% 69 1.21% 2,341 40.93% 5,720
Walthall 2,289 57.50% 1,598 40.14% 94 2.36% 691 17.36% 3,981
Warren 6,480 58.22% 4,448 39.96% 202 1.81% 2,032 18.26% 11,130
Washington 3,987 45.93% 4,586 52.83% 107 1.23% -599 -6.90% 8,680
Wayne 2,384 55.16% 1,773 41.02% 165 3.82% 611 14.14% 4,322
Webster 2,116 75.17% 661 23.48% 38 1.35% 1,455 51.69% 2,815
Wilkinson 841 39.43% 1,267 59.40% 25 1.17% -426 -19.97% 2,133
Winston 2,783 55.72% 2,155 43.14% 57 1.14% 628 12.57% 4,995
Yalobusha 1,710 53.06% 1,465 45.45% 48 1.49% 245 7.60% 3,223
Yazoo 2,758 56.41% 2,074 42.42% 57 1.17% 684 13.99% 4,889
Totals378,48159.90%239,43937.89%13,9382.21%139,04222.01%631,858
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Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Cochran won three of four congressional districts.[88]

More information District, Cochran ...
District Cochran Childers Representative
1st 61% 37% Alan Nunnelee
2nd 45% 54% Bennie Thompson
3rd 65% 33% Gregg Harper
4th 68% 28% Steven Palazzo
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Aftermath

In the aftermath of the runoff, the McDaniel campaign claimed there were indications of voter fraud.[89] A day after the election results were certified by the state party, Senator Ted Cruz and some Tea Party groups backed an investigation of supposed voter fraud in the runoff election.[90] Cruz also told reporters that groups aligned with the Cochran campaign had run racially charged ads designed to persuade black voters to vote against McDaniel.[90][91]

McDaniel's legal challenge to the runoff election results failed.[92][93] He unsuccessfully ran in the 2018 special election triggered by Cochran's resignation.[94]

See also

References

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