2016 Missouri gubernatorial election
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The 2016 Missouri gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2016, to elect the governor of Missouri, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.
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November 8, 2016
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   Greitens: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Koster: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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The primaries were held on August 2. Incumbent Democratic governor Jay Nixon was term-limited and could not run for re-election to a third term in office.[1] State Attorney General Chris Koster and businessman, author and former U.S. Navy SEAL Eric Greitens won the Democratic and Republican primaries, respectively.[2][3] On election day, November 8, 2016, the Associated Press declared Greitens the winner of the election, and Koster conceded shortly after.[4] This was the first gubernatorial election since 1968 that the winner was from a different party as the presidential candidate who won the popular vote in the concurrent election[a], and the first since 1940 that a Republican accomplished the feat.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
- Eric Morrison, pastor, community leader [8]
- Leonard Steinman, perennial candidate[9]
- Charles Wheeler, former mayor of Kansas City and former state senator[10]
Declined
- Joe Maxwell, former lieutenant governor of Missouri[11]
- Claire McCaskill, U.S. senator, former state auditor of Missouri and nominee for governor in 2004[12][13]
- Clint Zweifel, State Treasurer of Missouri[14]
Endorsements
Chris Koster
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chris Koster |
Eric Morrison |
Leonard Steinman |
Charles Wheeler |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon[17] | July 23–27, 2016 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 73% | 3% | 1% | 8% | — | 15% |
| SurveyUSA[18] | July 20–24, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 57% | 7% | 3% | 7% | — | 26% |
Results
Koster
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Chris Koster | 256,272 | 78.75% | |
| Democratic | Eric Morrison | 31,474 | 9.67% | |
| Democratic | Charles Wheeler | 25,756 | 7.92% | |
| Democratic | Leonard Steinman | 11,911 | 3.66% | |
| Total votes | 325,413 | 100.00% | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Eric Greitens, businessman, author and former U.S. Navy SEAL[20]
Eliminated in primary
- John Brunner, businessman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012[21]
- Catherine Hanaway, Missouri Attorney General appointee, former Speaker of the Missouri House of Representatives, and former United States Attorney for the Eastern District of Missouri[22]
- Peter Kinder, lieutenant governor of Missouri[23]
Deceased
- Tom Schweich, State Auditor of Missouri (died of suicide on February 26, 2015)[7][24][25][26][27]
Withdrew
- Randy Asbury, former state representative[21][28]
- Bob Dixon, state senator[29][30]
- Mike Parson, state senator (running for lieutenant governor)[31][32]
Declined
- Tim Jones, Speaker of the Missouri House of Representatives[33][34][35][36]
- Bart Korman, state representative[37][38]
- Blaine Luetkemeyer, U.S. representative[24][39][40][41]
- Ron Richard, state senator and former speaker of the Missouri House of Representatives[42]
- Dave Spence, businessman and nominee for governor in 2012[43]
- Jim Talent, former U.S. senator[44]
Endorsements
John Brunner
Indoviduals
- Mike Huckabee, former governor of Arkansas
- James E. Livingston, retired United States Marine Corps major general
- Rand Paul, U.S. senator from Kentucky
Organizations
Eric Greitens
Individuals
- Ben Carson, 2016 presidential candidate[45]
- Jane Cunningham, former Missouri state senator[46]
- Glen Klippenstein, former Missouri state representative[46]
- John Lamping, former Missouri state senator[46]
- Jim Lembke, former Missouri state senator[46]
- Kirk Mathews, Missouri state representative[46]
- Joe Maxwell, former Missouri Lieutenant Governor[47] (Democrat)
- Robert O'Neill, Navy SEAL
- David Steelman, former Missouri House minority leader[46]
- Sarah Steelman, former State Treasurer of Missouri[46]
- George Herbert Walker III, former United States Ambassador to Hungary[46]
- Nate Walker, Missouri state representative[46]
- Bill White, Missouri state representative[46]
Catherine Hanaway
Individuals
- Kit Bond, former U.S. senator and former governor of Missouri[48]
- Tom Dempsey, president pro tempore of the Missouri Senate[49]
- Nikki Haley, governor of South Carolina
- Ron Richard, majority leader of the Missouri Senate[50]
- Ann Wagner, U.S. representative, former United States Ambassador to Luxembourg, and former chair of the Missouri Republican Party[51]
Newspapers
Peter Kinder
- John Danforth, former U.S. senator and former United States Ambassador to the United Nations[52][53]
- Rush Limbaugh, conservative radio talk show host, long-time Cape Girardeau family friend[54]
- Dana Loesch, conservative talk radio and television host for TheBlaze and Breitbart News, author, co-founder of the St. Louis Tea Party[55]
- Jared Ogden, former Navy SEAL, Ultimate Survival Alaska celebrity, and Missouri resident[56]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Brunner |
Eric Greitens |
Catherine Hanaway |
Peter Kinder |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon[17] | July 23–27, 2016 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 23% | 21% | 21% | 18% | 17% |
| SurveyUSA[18] | July 20–24, 2016 | 773 | ± 3.6% | 21% | 25% | 18% | 18% | 18% |
| OnMessage Inc.[57] | July 17–18, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 23% | 21% | 25% | 19% | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling[58] | July 11–12, 2016 | 462 | ± 3.2% | 16% | 24% | 22% | 15% | 23% |
| Remington Research Group (R)/Missouri Scout[59] | July 7–8, 2016 | 1,022 | ± 3.0% | 22% | 29% | 16% | 12% | 21% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Brunner |
Catherine Hanaway |
Peter Kinder |
Tom Schweich |
Dave Spence |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Remington Research Group[60] | February 2–3, 2015 | 747 | 3.6% | 10% | 13% | — | 16% | — | — | 62% |
| — | 12% | 24% | 15% | — | — | 48% | ||||
| — | 16% | — | 19% | — | 18% | 47% | ||||
| Remington Research Group[61] | January 2015 | 1,355 | ? | — | 44% | — | 56% | — | — | — |
| — | 39% | — | 37% | 25% | — | — |
Results
Greitens
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
Brunner
- 20–30%
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
Kinder
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Eric Greitens | 236,481 | 34.56% | |
| Republican | John Brunner | 169,620 | 24.79% | |
| Republican | Peter Kinder | 141,629 | 20.70% | |
| Republican | Catherine Hanaway | 136,521 | 19.95% | |
| Total votes | 684,251 | 100.00% | ||
Third party and independent candidates
Green Party
Candidates
Declared
Independent
Candidates
Declared
- Les Turilli Jr., businessman[64]
Libertarian Party
Candidates
Declared
- Cisse W. Spragins, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010 and nominee for Missouri Secretary of State in 2012[65]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Cisse W. Spragins | 3,515 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 3,515 | 100.00% | ||
General election
Debates
- Complete video of debate, September 30, 2016 - C-SPAN
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[66] | Tossup | August 12, 2016 |
| Daily Kos[67] | Tossup | November 8, 2016 |
| Inside Elections[68] | Tossup | November 3, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[69] | Lean R (flip) | November 7, 2016 |
| Real Clear Politics[70] | Tossup | November 1, 2016 |
| Governing[71] | Tossup | November 4, 2016 |
Polling
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Chris Koster (D) |
Eric Greitens (R) |
Other/Undecided [b] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Clear Politics[72] | October 28 – November 1, 2016 | November 1, 2016 | 45.5% | 46.0% | 8.5% | Greitens +0.5% |
View source data.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chris Koster (D) |
Eric Greitens (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey[73] | November 1–7, 2016 | 1,368 | ± 4.6% | 48% | 47% | — | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey[74] | October 31–Nov 6, 2016 | 1,119 | ± 4.6% | 49% | 46% | — | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey[75] | October 28–Nov 3, 2016 | 879 | ± 4.6% | 49% | 47% | — | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling[76] | November 1–2, 2016 | 871 | ± 3.4% | 47% | 44% | 4% | 6% |
| SurveyMonkey[77] | October 27 – November 2, 2016 | 774 | ± 4.6% | 50% | 47% | — | 3% |
| The Missouri Times/Remington Research Group (R)[78] | October 31 – November 1, 2016 | 1,722 | ± 2.4% | 45% | 46% | 4% | 4% |
| DFM Research[79] | October 27 – November 1, 2016 | 508 | ± 4.4% | 45% | 39% | 10% | 6% |
| SurveyMonkey[80] | October 26 – November 1, 2016 | 649 | ± 4.6% | 52% | 46% | — | 2% |
| Monmouth University[81] | October 28–31, 2016 | 405 | ± 4.9% | 46% | 46% | 2% | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey[82] | October 25–31, 2016 | 671 | ± 4.6% | 54% | 44% | — | 2% |
| Missouri Scout/BK Strategies (R)[83] | October 27–28, 2016 | 1,698 | ± 2.4% | 46% | 45% | — | 9% |
| St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon[84] | October 24–26, 2016 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 45% | — | 9% |
| The Missouri Times/Remington Research Group (R)[85] | October 23–25, 2016 | 2,559 | ± 1.9% | 47% | 45% | 4% | 4% |
| The Missouri Times/Remington Research Group (R)[86] | October 9–11, 2016 | 2,171 | ± 2.1% | 48% | 42% | 5% | 5% |
| Monmouth University[87] | October 9–11, 2016 | 406 | ± 4.9% | 46% | 43% | 2% | 8% |
| The Missouri Times/Remington Research Group (R)[88] | October 4–5, 2016 | 1,588 | ± 2.6% | 44% | 41% | 5% | 10% |
| The Missouri Times/Remington Research Group (R)[89] | September 26–27, 2016 | 1,279 | ± 3.0% | 51% | 35% | 5%[90] | 10% |
| The Tarrance Group (R-Greitens)[91] | September 19–22, 2016 | 606 | ± 4.1% | 45% | 42% | — | 13% |
| The Missouri Times/Remington Research Group (R)[92] | September 19–20, 2016 | 1,076 | ± 3.2% | 47% | 37% | 4%[93] | 13% |
| The Missouri Times/Gravis Marketing[94] | September 11–13, 2016 | 604 | ± 4.0% | 49% | 41% | — | 8% |
| The Missouri Times/Gravis Marketing[95] | September 4–6, 2016 | 589 | ± 4.0% | 47% | 41% | 3%[96] | 9% |
| Missouri Scout/Remington Research Group (R)[97] | September 1–2, 2016 | 1,275 | ± 3.0% | 46% | 42% | — | 12% |
| Monmouth University[98] | August 19–22, 2016 | 401 | ± 4.9% | 51% | 40% | 3% | 6% |
| Remington Research Group (R)[99] | August 5–6, 2016 | 1,280 | ± 3.0% | 45% | 43% | — | 7% |
| St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon[100] | July 23–24, 2016 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 52% | 33% | — | 15% |
| DFM Research[101] | March 17–24, 2016 | 674 | ± 3.8% | 41% | 24% | 3% | 31% |
| Public Policy Polling[102] | September 22–23, 2015 | 731 | ± 3.6% | 37% | 44% | — | 20% |
| Public Policy Polling[103] | August 7–9, 2015 | 859 | ± 3.3% | 40% | 34% | — | 26% |
Hypothetical polling
with John Brunner
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chris Koster (D) |
John Brunner (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon[100] | July 23–24, 2016 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 40% | — | 14% |
| DFM Research[101] | March 17–24, 2016 | 674 | ± 3.8% | 42% | 28% | 2% | 28% |
| Public Policy Polling[103] | August 7–9, 2015 | 859 | ± 3.3% | 41% | 36% | — | 23% |
with Catherine Hanaway
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chris Koster (D) |
Catherine Hanaway (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon[100] | July 23–24, 2016 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 52% | 36% | — | 12% |
| DFM Research[101] | March 17–24, 2016 | 674 | ± 3.8% | 43% | 31% | 3% | 23% |
| Public Policy Polling[103] | August 7–9, 2015 | 859 | ± 3.3% | 40% | 36% | — | 23% |
| Gravius Public Polling[104] | January 7–8, 2015 | ? | ± 6% | 29% | 23% | — | 48% |
| Wilson Perkins Allen (R-Hanaway)[105] | January 15–19, 2014 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 33% | 35% | — | 32% |
with Peter Kinder
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chris Koster (D) |
Peter Kinder (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon[100] | July 23–24, 2016 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 47% | 46% | — | 7% |
| DFM Research[101] | March 17–24, 2016 | 674 | ± 3.8% | 39% | 37% | 2% | 22% |
| Public Policy Polling[103] | August 7–9, 2015 | 859 | ± 3.3% | 37% | 40% | — | 24% |
with Bob Dixon
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chris Koster (D) |
Bob Dixon (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[103] | August 7–9, 2015 | 859 | ± 3.3% | 39% | 35% | — | 26% |
with Bart Korman
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chris Koster (D) |
Bart Korman (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[103] | August 7–9, 2015 | 859 | ± 3.3% | 39% | 31% | — | 30% |
with Tom Schweich
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chris Koster (D) |
Tom Schweich (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravius Public Polling[104] | January 7–8, 2015 | ? | ± 6% | 30% | 26% | — | 44% |
with Randy Asbury
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chris Koster (D) |
Randy Asbury (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[103] | August 7–9, 2015 | 859 | ± 3.3% | 40% | 35% | — | 25% |
with Claire McCaskill
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Claire McCaskill (D) |
Catherine Hanaway (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravius Public Polling[104] | January 7–8, 2015 | ? | ± 6% | 19% | 30% | — | 51% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Claire McCaskill (D) |
Tom Schweich (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravius Public Polling[104] | January 7–8, 2015 | ? | ± 6% | 20% | 34% | — | 46% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Eric Greitens | 1,433,397 | 51.14% | +8.61% | |
| Democratic | Chris Koster | 1,277,360 | 45.57% | −9.20% | |
| Libertarian | Cisse Spragins | 41,154 | 1.47% | −1.22% | |
| Independent | Lester Benton Turilli, Jr. | 30,019 | 1.07% | N/A | |
| Green | Don Fitz | 21,088 | 0.75% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 28 | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||
| Total votes | 2,803,046 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican gain from Democratic | |||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Adair (largest city: Kirksville)
- Audrain (largest city: Mexico)
- Bates (largest city: Butler)
- Buchanan (largest city: St. Joseph)
- Chariton (largest city: Salisbury)
- Clark (largest city: Kahoka)
- Clay (largest city: Liberty)
- Clinton (largest city: Cameron)
- Dunklin (largest city: Kennett)
- Franklin (largest city: Washington)
- Greene (largest city: Springfield)
- Henry (largest city: Clinton)
- Hickory (largest city: Hermitage)
- Howard (largest city: Fayette)
- Iron (largest city: Ironton)
- Jefferson (largest city: Arnold)
- Johnson (largest city: Warrensburg)
- Knox (largest city: Edina)
- Lafayette (largest city: Odessa)
- Lewis (largest city: Canton)
- Linn (largest city: Brookfield)
- Madison (largest city: Fredericktown)
- Mississippi (largest city: Charleston)
- Monroe (largest city: Monroe City)
- New Madrid (largest city: New Madrid)
- Nodaway (largest city: Maryville)
- Pemiscot (largest city: Caruthersville)
- Pettis (largest city: Sedalia)
- Pike (largest city: Bowling Green)
- Platte (largest city: Kansas City)
- Ray (largest city: Richmond)
- Reynolds (largest city: Ellington)
- Saline (largest city: Marshall)
- Scott (largest city: Sikeston)
- Shannon (largest city: Winona)
- St. Charles (largest city: O'Fallon)
- St. Francois (largest city: Farmington)
- Ste. Genevieve (largest city: Ste. Genevieve)
- Washington (largest city: Potosi)
- Wayne (largest city: Piedmont)
By congressional district
Greitens won six of eight congressional districts.[107]
| District | Koster | Greitens | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 78% | 19% | Lacy Clay |
| 2nd | 47% | 51% | Ann Wagner |
| 3rd | 40% | 57% | Blaine Luetkemeyer |
| 4th | 39% | 57% | Vicky Hartzler |
| 5th | 60% | 37% | Emanuel Cleaver |
| 6th | 40% | 57% | Sam Graves |
| 7th | 32% | 65% | Billy Long |
| 8th | 32% | 65% | Jason Smith |
Campaign finance investigations
On April 28, 2017, the Missouri Ethics Commission fined Greitens' campaign $1,000 for violating state campaign ethics rules regarding campaign disclosure. Greitens did not contest the fine.[108]
In 2018, Missouri attorney general Josh Hawley announced the opening of an investigation of Greitens' 2016 campaign financing.[109]
On June 1, 2018, Greitens resigned from office, leaving Mike Parson, his lieutenant governor, to succeed him.
Notes
- While Hillary Clinton lost the election to Donald Trump, she won the popular vote.
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.