2016 United States Senate election in Iowa
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The 2016 United States Senate election in Iowa was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Iowa, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
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November 8, 2016
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   Grassley: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Judge: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Tie: 40–50% | |||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Republican Senator Chuck Grassley won reelection to a seventh term in office. Primary elections were held June 7, 2016,[1] with Grassley facing no primary opposition, and former lieutenant governor Patty Judge winning the Democratic nomination. Grassley won a seventh term in a sixth consecutive landslide and outperformed Donald Trump, who also won the state that year; nevertheless, this represented Grassley's worst re-election performance at the time since his first race in 1980, until 6 years later when Michael Franken would not only make Grassley fall below 60% of the vote, but also cut his winning percentage in half and flip several counties (namely Black Hawk, Linn, Story and Polk) that Grassley carried in this election.[2]
Background
Republican Chuck Grassley was first elected to the Senate in 1980, defeating Democratic incumbent John Culver by 53% to 46%. Since then, Grassley has been re-elected five times, most recently in 2010, on each occasion taking at least 64% of the vote.
Despite speculation that Grassley, who turned 83 years old in 2016, might retire,[3] he announced in September 2013 that he was "making plans to run for re-election", but added that "it's not taking much of my time. I'm concentrating on doing my job for Iowans."[4]
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Chuck Grassley, incumbent senator[4][5]
Withdrawn
Declined
- Pat Grassley, state representative and grandson of Chuck Grassley[9]
- Steve King, U.S. Representative[10]
- Tom Latham, former U.S. Representative[10]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Chuck Grassley (Incumbent) | 90,089 | 98.36% | |
| Republican | Write-ins | 1,500 | 1.64% | |
| Total votes | 91,589 | 100.00% | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Tom Fiegen, former state senator and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010[5]
- Rob Hogg, state senator[12]
- Patty Judge, former lieutenant governor and former Iowa Secretary of Agriculture[13][14][15]
- Bob Krause, former state representative, nominee for state treasurer in 1978, candidate for Mayor of Waterloo in 1982 and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010[16]
Withdrawn
- Ray Zirkelbach, former state representative[17][18]
Declined
- Christie Vilsack, former First Lady of Iowa and nominee for Iowa's 4th congressional district in 2012[9]
- Tom Vilsack, United States Secretary of Agriculture and former governor of Iowa[10]
- Chet Culver, former governor of Iowa[9][19]
- Michael Gronstal, Majority Leader of the Iowa Senate and Chairman of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee[9][20]
- Dave Loebsack, U.S. Representative (running for re-election)[10][21]
- Andy McGuire, chairwoman of the Iowa Democratic Party and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2006[5]
- Tyler Olson, former state representative, former chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party, and candidate for governor in 2014[22][23]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Patty Judge |
Rob Hogg |
Bob Krause |
Tom Fiegen |
None/Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Des Moines Register[24] | May 30 – June 2, 2016 | 542 | ± 4.2% | 42% | 25% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 15% |
| KBUR-AM 1490[25] | May 31 – June 1, 2016 | 1,361 | ± 3.0% | 37% | 31% | 3% | 6% | – | 23% |
Results
Fiegen—30–40%
Hogg—60–70%
Hogg—50–60%
Hogg—40–50%
Hogg—30–40%
Judge—80–90%
Judge—70–80%
Judge—60–70%
Judge—50–60%
Judge—40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Patty Judge | 46,322 | 47.62% | |
| Democratic | Rob Hogg | 37,801 | 38.86% | |
| Democratic | Tom Fiegen | 6,573 | 6.76% | |
| Democratic | Bob Krause | 6,425 | 6.60% | |
| Democratic | Write-ins | 154 | 0.16% | |
| Total votes | 97,275 | 100.00% | ||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[26] | Likely R | November 2, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[27] | Safe R | November 7, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[28] | Safe R | November 3, 2016 |
| Daily Kos[29] | Safe R | November 8, 2016 |
| Real Clear Politics[30] | Safe R | November 7, 2016 |
Debates
| Dates | Location | Grassley | Judge | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 19, 2016 | Sioux City, Iowa | Participant | Participant | [31] |
Polling
View source data.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chuck Grassley (R) |
Patty Judge (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey[32] | November 1–7, 2016 | 1,781 | ± 4.6% | 57% | 39% | — | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey[33] | Oct 31–Nov 6, 2016 | 1,598 | ± 4.6% | 56% | 39% | — | 5% |
| Des Moines Register/Selzer[34] | November 1–4, 2016 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 56% | 33% | 2% | 4% |
| Emerson College[35] | November 1–3, 2016 | 700 | ± 3.6% | 60% | 32% | 4% | 5% |
| Loras College[36] | November 1–3, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 53% | 37% | 1% | 8% |
| SurveyMonkey[37] | Oct 28–Nov 3, 2016 | 1,469 | ± 4.6% | 57% | 39% | — | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey[38] | Oct 27–Nov 2, 2016 | 1,226 | ± 4.6% | 57% | 40% | — | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey[39] | Oct 26–Nov 1, 2016 | 867 | ± 4.6% | 56% | 41% | — | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey[40] | October 25–31, 2016 | 984 | ± 4.6% | 56% | 41% | — | 3% |
| Quinnipiac University[41] | October 20–26, 2016 | 791 | ± 3.5% | 56% | 38% | — | 5% |
| Washington Post/SurveyMonkey[42] | October 8–16, 2016 | 1,135 | ± 0.5% | 56% | 40% | — | 5% |
| Google Consumer Surveys[43] | October 12–14, 2016 | 523 | ± 4.2% | 56% | 41% | — | 3% |
| The Times-Picayune/Lucid[44] | October 7–10, 2016 | 917 | ± 3.0% | 51% | 39% | — | 11% |
| Des Moines Register/Selzer[45] | October 3–6, 2016 | 642 | ± 3.5% | 53% | 36% | 2% | 6% |
| Loras College[46] | September 20–22, 2016 | 491 | ± 4.4% | 54% | 37% | — | 9% |
| Quinnipiac University[47] | September 13–21, 2016 | 612 | ± 4.0% | 55% | 43% | — | 2% |
| Monmouth University[48] | September 12–14, 2016 | 404 | ± 4.9% | 56% | 39% | 2% | 3% |
| RABA Research[49] | September 6–8, 2016 | 1,054 | ± 3.0% | 50% | 37% | — | 13% |
| Emerson College[50] | Aug 31–Sept 1, 2016 | 600 | ± 3.9% | 51% | 40% | 3% | 6% |
| Public Policy Polling[51] | August 30–31, 2016 | 827 | ± 3.4% | 49% | 43% | — | 8% |
| CBS News/YouGov[52] | August 17–19, 2016 | 987 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 38% | 1% | 15% |
| Quinnipiac University[53] | August 9–16, 2016 | 846 | ± 3.4% | 51% | 42% | — | 6% |
| Suffolk University[54] | August 8–10, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 52% | 42% | — | 6% |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist[55] | August 3–7, 2016 | 899 | ± 3.3% | 52% | 42% | 1% | 5% |
| CBS News/YouGov[56] | July 13–15, 2016 | 998 | ± 4.8% | 45% | 37% | 2% | 16% |
| Monmouth University[57] | July 8–11, 2016 | 401 | ± 4.9% | 52% | 42% | — | 6% |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist[58] | July 5–10, 2016 | 822 | ± 3.4% | 52% | 42% | 1% | 5% |
| Loras College[59] | June 24–28, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 45% | — | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling[60] | June 22–23, 2016 | 897 | ± 3.3% | 46% | 39% | — | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[61] | June 9–13, 2016 | 630 | ± 3.9% | 48% | 41% | — | 11% |
Hypothetical polling
with Rob Hogg
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chuck Grassley (R) |
Rob Hogg (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[62] | January 8–10, 2016 | 1,901 | ± 2.3% | 52% | 28% | 19% |
| Public Policy Polling[63] | December 10–13, 2015 | 1,426 | ± 2.6% | 54% | 29% | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling[64] | October 30–November 1, 2015 | 1,668 | ± 2.4% | 53% | 29% | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling[65] | August 7–9, 2015 | 1,500 | ± 2.5% | 52% | 28% | 20% |
with Tom Fiegen
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chuck Grassley (R) |
Tom Fiegen (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[62] | January 8–10, 2016 | 1,901 | ± 2.3% | 53% | 29% | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling[63] | December 10–13, 2015 | 1,426 | ± 2.6% | 54% | 29% | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling[64] | October 30–November 1, 2015 | 1,668 | ± 2.4% | 54% | 30% | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling[65] | August 7–9, 2015 | 1,500 | ± 2.5% | 53% | 30% | 17% |
with Bob Krause
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chuck Grassley (R) |
Bob Krause (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[62] | January 8–10, 2016 | 1,901 | ± 2.3% | 52% | 28% | 20% |
| Public Policy Polling[63] | December 10–13, 2015 | 1,426 | ± 2.6% | 53% | 28% | 19% |
| Public Policy Polling[64] | October 30–November 1, 2015 | 1,668 | ± 2.4% | 52% | 28% | 21% |
| Public Policy Polling[65] | August 7–9, 2015 | 1,500 | ± 2.5% | 51% | 29% | 20% |
with Tom Vilsack
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chuck Grassley (R) |
Tom Vilsack (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[66] | September 25–28, 2014 | 1,192 | ± 2.8% | 51% | 42% | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling[67] | May 15–19, 2014 | 914 | ± 3.3% | 49% | 39% | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling[68] | February 20–23, 2014 | 869 | ± 3.3% | 48% | 41% | 11% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Chuck Grassley (incumbent) | 926,007 | 60.09% | −4.26% | |
| Democratic | Patty Judge | 549,460 | 35.66% | +2.36% | |
| Libertarian | Charles Aldrich | 41,794 | 2.71% | +0.44% | |
| Independent | Jim Hennager | 17,649 | 1.15% | N/A | |
| Independent | Michael Luick-Thrams | 4,441 | 0.29% | N/A | |
| n/a | Write-ins | 1,685 | 0.11% | +0.03% | |
| Total votes | 1,541,036 | 100.0% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
By congressional district
Grassley won all four congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.[70]
| District | Grassley | Judge | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 58% | 38% | Rod Blum |
| 2nd | 56% | 39% | Dave Loebsack |
| 3rd | 58% | 37% | David Young |
| 4th | 68% | 28% | Steve King |