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2022 United States Senate election in Iowa

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The 2022 United States Senate election in Iowa was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Iowa. Incumbent Republican Senator Chuck Grassley defeated Democratic nominee Michael Franken to win re-election to an eighth term.[1]

Quick facts Nominee, Party ...
2022 United States Senate election in Iowa
← 2016
November 8, 2022
2028 →
 
Nominee Chuck Grassley Michael Franken
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 681,501 533,330
Percentage 56.01% 43.84%
Grassley:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Franken:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%
U.S. senator before election

Chuck Grassley
Republican

 Elected U.S. Senator

Chuck Grassley
Republican

Close

Grassley was first elected in 1980 and was most recently re-elected in 2016. Grassley, who turned 89 years old on September 17, 2022, ran for reelection to an eighth term.[2] With U.S. Senator Patrick Leahy retiring the same year, he became the second-oldest person ever to be re-elected for another term (behind Strom Thurmond in 1996 at age 93), on January 3, 2023, upon the departure of Patrick Leahy from the United States Senate Chuck Grassley became the most senior member in the Senate, and on January 4, 2023, he became the longest-serving Republican senator in history (overtaking Orrin Hatch), as well as the most senior member of Congress since January 3, 2023.

The Republican Party flipped Iowa's 3rd congressional district in the concurrent House election, thus marking the first time since 1957 that Iowa had an entirely Republican congressional delegation.

Despite his victory, this was Grassley's closest Senate race since he was first elected in 1980, as well as his worst performance since that time due to him not cracking 60% of the vote. Franken defeated Grassley in Linn, Story, and Polk counties, all of which Grassley won in every election since 1986. In addition, this election was the first time that Grassley lost Black Hawk County. Finally, this election saw both the Class 3 Senate seat's worst performance by a Republican since 1962 and the seat's best performance by a Democrat since 1980.

Republican primary

State Senator Jim Carlin challenged Grassley in the primary.

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Fundraising

More information Candidate, Total receipts ...
Candidate Total receipts Coverage ending
Chuck Grassley $6,881,288 Coverage ending: May 18, 2022[8]
Jim Carlin $508,308 Coverage ending: May 18, 2022[8]
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Results

Results by county
  Grassley
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
More information Party, Candidate ...
Republican primary results[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Chuck Grassley (incumbent) 143,634 73.34%
Republican Jim Carlin 51,891 26.50%
Write-in 312 0.16%
Total votes 195,837 100.00%
Close

Democratic primary

Former U.S. Representative Abby Finkenauer finished second in the primary.

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Campaign

Former U.S. Representative Abby Finkenauer was the original frontrunner in the Democratic primary, with her campaign being backed by several prominent politicians and labor unions, as well as the influential political action committee EMILY's List.[25] However, in an upset, retired vice-admiral Michael Franken managed to slowly overtake her as the perceived frontrunner, assisted by an effective campaign that highlighted his leadership credentials.[25]

Fundraising

More information Candidate, Total receipts ...
Candidate Total receipts Coverage ending
Abby Finkenauer $3,740,881 Coverage ending: May 18, 2022[8]
Michael Franken $2,863,882 Coverage ending: May 18, 2022[8]
Glenn Hurst $129,618 Coverage ending: May 18, 2022[8]
Close

Endorsements

Abby Finkenauer

U.S. representatives

State officials

State legislators

Labor unions

Organizations

Glenn Hurst

Organizations

Individuals

Polling

Graphical summary

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[a]		 Margin
of error		 Abby
Finkenauer		 Michael
Franken		 Glenn
Hurst		 Undecided
Change Research (D)[40][A] May 4–8, 2022 866 (LV) ± 4.0% 40% 42% 4% 14%
Change Research (D)[40][A] April 6–11, 2022 416 (LV) ± 6.3% 53% 26% 7% 14%
GBAO (D)[41][B] March 30 – April 3, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 64% 15% 6% 15%
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Results

Results by county
  Franken
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Finkenauer
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
More information Party, Candidate ...
Democratic primary results[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Michael Franken 86,527 55.17%
Democratic Abby Finkenauer 62,581 39.90%
Democratic Glenn Hurst 7,571 4.83%
Write-in 158 0.10%
Total votes 156,837 100.00%
Close

General election

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[42] Solid R November 7, 2022
Inside Elections[43] Solid R August 25, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[44] Safe R August 31, 2022
Politico[45] Likely R October 18, 2022
RCP[46] Likely R October 15, 2022
Fox News[47] Likely R August 22, 2022
DDHQ[48] Solid R July 20, 2022
538[49] Solid R September 6, 2022
The Economist[50] Safe R September 7, 2022
Close

Debates

More information No., Date ...
2022 United States Senate general election in Iowa debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Republican Democratic
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee

 W  Withdrawn
Chuck Grassley Michael Franken
1 October 6, 2022 Iowa PBS O. Kay Henderson [51] P P
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Endorsements

Chuck Grassley (R)

U.S. executive branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State officials

State legislators

Individuals

Newspapers

Organization

Michael Franken (D)

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State officials

State legislators

Local officials

Labor unions

Newspaper and other media

Organizations

Individuals

Polling

Aggregate polls

More information Source of poll aggregation, Dates administered ...
Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Chuck
Grassley (R)		 Michael
Franken (D)		 Undecided
[b]		 Margin
FiveThirtyEight[100] October 2 – November 8, 2022 November 8, 2022 51.8% 42.2% 6.0% Grassley +9.6
270towin[101] October 26 – November 5, 2022 November 8, 2022 53.0% 42.7% 4.3% Grassley +10.3
Average 52.4% 42.5% 5.1% Grassley +9.9
Close

Graphical summary

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[a]		 Margin
of error		 Chuck
Grassley (R)		 Michael
Franken (D)		 Other Undecided
Selzer & Co.[102] October 31 – November 3, 2022 801 (LV) ± 3.5% 53% 41% 4%[c] 2%
Cygnal (R)[103][C] October 26–27, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 54% 43% – 3%
Civiqs[104] October 22–25, 2022 623 (LV) ± 5.2% 52% 44% 3%[d] 2%
The Tarrance Group (R)[105][D] October 15–19, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.1% 53% 42% – 4%
Change Research (D)[106][A] October 14–18, 2022 1,008 (LV) ± 3.3% 48% 45% – 6%
Selzer & Co.[107] October 9–12, 2022 620 (LV) ± 3.9% 46% 43% 8%[e] 3%
Emerson College[108] October 2–4, 2022 959 (LV) ± 3.1% 49% 38% 4% 9%
Cygnal (R)[109][C] October 2–4, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 54% 40% – 6%
Change Research (D)[110][A] September 3–8, 2022 1,143 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 44% – 8%
Cygnal (R)[111][C] July 13–14, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 52% 43% – 5%
Selzer & Co.[112] July 10–13, 2022 597 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 39% 7% 5%
Change Research (D)[113][A] June 30 – July 4, 2022 1,488 (LV) ± 2.7% 49% 44% – 7%
Change Research (D)[114][A] April 6–11, 2022 1,070 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 42% – 13%
Close
Hypothetical polling

Chuck Grassley vs. Abby Finkenauer

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[a]		 Margin
of error		 Chuck
Grassley (R)		 Abby
Finkenauer (D)		 Other Undecided
Moore Information Group (R)[115] March 8–13, 2022 400 (LV) ± 5.0% 45% 36% 6% 14%
Cygnal (R)[116][C] February 20–22, 2022 610 (LV) ± 3.9% 53% 39% – 8%
Data for Progress (D)[117] December 2–13, 2021 770 (LV) ± 4.0% 53% 39% – 8%
Cygnal (R)[118][C] October 18–19, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 55% 39% – 6%
Selzer & Co.[119] September 12–15, 2021 620 (LV) ± 3.9% 55% 37% 1%[f] 7%
Close

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
2022 United States Senate election in Iowa
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Chuck Grassley (incumbent) 681,501 56.01% −4.08%
Democratic Michael Franken 533,330 43.84% +8.18%
Write-in 1,815 0.15% +0.04%
Total votes 1,216,646 100.00% N/A
Republican hold
Close

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Grassley won all four congressional districts.[120]

More information District, Grassley ...
District Grassley Franken Representative
1st 53% 47% Mariannette Miller-Meeks
2nd 55% 45% Ashley Hinson
3rd 51% 48% Cindy Axne (117th Congress)
Zach Nunn (118th Congress)
4th 66% 34% Randy Feenstra
Close

See also

Notes

  1. [a]
    Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. [b]
    Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. [c]
    "Someone else" with 3%; "Don't want to tell" with 1%
  4. [d]
    "Someone else" with 3%
  5. [e]
    "Someone else" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 4%
  6. [f]
    "Would not vote" (volunteered answer) with 1%

Partisan clients

  1. [A]
    Poll sponsored by Franken's campaign
  2. [B]
    Poll sponsored by Finkenauer's campaign
  3. [C]
    Poll sponsored by the Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation
  4. [D]
    Poll conducted for the NRSC.

References

External links

Related Articles

Timelines

Top Qs

Fact Checks