2018 Connecticut gubernatorial election
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2018 Connecticut gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor and lieutenant governor of Connecticut, concurrently with the election of Connecticut's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.
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November 6, 2018
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| Turnout | 65.23%  | ||||||||||||||||||||||
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Lamont: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Stefanowski: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Tie: 40–50% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
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As Connecticut does not have gubernatorial term limits, incumbent Democratic governor Dannel Malloy was eligible to run for a third term, but declined to do so.[1][2][3] After the resignation of Kansas governor Sam Brownback in January 2018, Malloy became the most unpopular governor in the United States.[4][5] The general election was between 2006 Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Ned Lamont, and Republican financial executive Bob Stefanowski. Independent candidate and former Republican Oz Griebel has been called a spoiler candidate for Stefanowski, earning 3.89% of the vote.[6] Lamont was re-elected governor in 2022 in a rematch with Stefanowski.
Democratic primary
Governor
Democratic nominee
- Ned Lamont, former Greenwich selectman, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2006 and candidate for governor of Connecticut in 2010[7][8] (endorsed by the state party)
Lost the Democratic primary
- Joe Ganim, mayor of Bridgeport and nominee for lieutenant governor in 1994[9][10]
Withdrew prior to the Democratic primary
- Susan Bysiewicz, Secretary of the State of Connecticut from 1999 to 2011 and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012 (running for lieutenant governor of Connecticut; endorsed Lamont)[11][12]
- Sean Connolly, former state commissioner for Veterans' Affairs (endorsed Lamont)[13]
- Dan Drew, mayor of Middletown[14]
- Jonathan Harris, former mayor of West Hartford and former Connecticut state senator (endorsed Lamont)[15][16][17]
- Guy L. Smith, businessman[18]
Declined
- Dita Bhargava, former hedge fund manager and former vice chair of the Democratic Party of Connecticut (ran for Treasurer of Connecticut)[19][20]
- Luke Bronin, mayor of Hartford since 2015[21][22]
- Joe Courtney, U.S. representative since 2007 (ran for reelection)[23]
- Elizabeth Esty, U.S. representative since 2013 (retiring)[24]
- Toni Harp, Mayor of New Haven since 2013 (endorsed Lamont)[25][26][27]
- Jim Himes, U.S. representative since 2009 (ran for reelection)[28]
- George Jepsen, Attorney General of Connecticut since 2011 (retired)[29]
- Edward M. Kennedy Jr., state senator and member of the Kennedy family (retired)[30]
- John Larson, U.S. representative since 1999 (ran for reelection; endorsed Lamont)
- Kevin Lembo, State Comptroller of Connecticut since 2011 (ran for reelection)[31][32][33][34]
- Martin Looney, state senator, president pro tempore of the Connecticut Senate[35]
- Dan Malloy, governor of Connecticut since 2011 (retired)[1][2][3]
- Rudy Marconi, Ridgefield first selectman[36]
- Chris Mattei, attorney and former federal prosecutor (ran for attorney general)[37]
- Nancy Wyman, lieutenant governor of Connecticut since 2011 (retired)[38]
Primary endorsements
Susan Bysiewicz (withdrew)
Sean Connolly (withdrew)
- State legislators
- David Arconti, state representative[40]
- Pat Boyd, state representative[40]
- Steve Cassano, state senator[40]
- Cathy Osten, state senator[40]
Jonathan Harris (withdrew)
- Statewide officials
- Kevin Sullivan, former lieutenant governor[41]
- State legislators
- Beth Bye, state senator[41]
- Mike Demicco, state representative[41]
- Andy Fleischmann, state representative[41]
- Ed Gomes, state senator[41]
- Susan Johnson, state representative[41]
- Tim Larson, state senator[41]
- Linda Orange, state representative[41]
- Kevin Ryan, state representative[41]
- Derek Slap, state representative[41]
- Joe Verrengia, state representative[41]
- Mayors and other municipal leaders
- Shari Cantor, West Hartford mayor[41]
- Kevin Scarpati, Meriden mayor[41]
- Ted Shafer, Burlington first selectman[41]
Ned Lamont
- U.S. executive branch officials
- Joe Biden, former vice president of the United States[42]
- Barack Obama, former president of the United States[42]
- Withdrawn candidates
- Susan Bysiewicz, former Secretary of the State of Connecticut[42] (running mate)
- U.S. representatives
- Joe Courtney, U.S. representative from Connecticut's 2nd congressional district[43]
- Rosa DeLauro, U.S. representative from Connecticut's 3rd congressional district[44]
- John Larson, U.S. representative from Connecticut's 1st congressional district[45]
- Statewide officials
- State legislators
- Juan Candelaria, current state representative of New Haven[42]
- Michelle Cook, current state representative of Torrington[42]
- Michael DiMassa, current state representative of New Haven
- Jonathan Harris, former state senator and West Hartford mayor[17]
- Edward M. Kennedy Jr., current state senator of Guilford[42]
- Martin Looney, current pro tempore of the Senate, New Haven[42]
- Ellen Scalettar, former state representative of Woodbridge and former Woodbridge first selectman[42]
- Sean Scanlon, current state representative of Guilford[42]
- Party leaders
- Kevin Comer, chairman of Washington Democratic Town Committee[42]
- Karen Jarmoc, member of Democratic State Central Committee[42]
- Barbara Reynolds, member of Democratic State Central Committee[42]
- Steven Sheinberg, chairman of Fairfield Democratic Town Committee[42]
- Audrey Tyson, member of Democratic State Central Committee[42]
- Newspapers and magazines
- Mayors and other municipal leaders
- Ben Blake, Milford mayor[48]
- Shari Cantor, West Hartford mayor[42]
- Toni Harp, New Haven mayor[27]
- Beth Heller, Woodbridge first selectman[49]
- Marcia Leclerc, East Hartford mayor[42]
- Neil O'Leary, Waterbury mayor[50]
- Curtis Read, Bridgewater first selectman[51]
- Nancy Rossi, West Haven mayor[42]
- Eva Magnuszewski, Common Council president of New Britain[42]
- Liz Brown, chairperson of Board of Education of Waterbury[42]
- John Burdick, member of the New Hartford, Connecticut Economic Development Commission (since 2017) and candidate for New Hartford first selectman (Republican)
- 2018 candidates for office
- Amanda Webster, Democratic nominee for Connecticut representative from the 62nd District
- Labor unions
Results
Lamont
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- >90%
Lamont
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- >90%
Ganim
- 50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Ned Lamont | 172,024 | 81.2 | |
| Democratic | Joe Ganim | 39,913 | 18.8 | |
| Total votes | 211,937 | 100.0 | ||
Lieutenant governor
Democratic nominee
- Susan Bysiewicz, former Secretary of the State of Connecticut and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012 (endorsed by the state party)
Lost the Democratic primary
- Eva Bermúdez Zimmerman, activist[53]
Withdrew
- Liz Linehan, state representative[54]
- Drew Marzullo, Greenwich selectman[55]
- Charlie Stallworth, state representative[56]
Results
Bysiewicz
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
Bysiewicz
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
Zimmerman
- 50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Susan Bysiewicz | 129,928 | 62.2 | |
| Democratic | Eva Bermúdez Zimmerman | 79,021 | 37.8 | |
| Total votes | 208,949 | 100.0 | ||
Republican primary
Governor
Republican nominee
- Bob Stefanowski, financial executive[57][58][59]
Lost the Republican primary
- Tim Herbst, former first selectman of Trumbull and nominee for state treasurer in 2014[60]
- Stephen A. Obsitnik, businessman and nominee for CT-04 in 2012[61]
- David Stemerman, businessman[62]
- Mark Boughton, mayor of Danbury, nominee for lieutenant governor in 2010 and candidate for governor in 2014 (endorsed by the state party)[63]
Eliminated at convention
- Mike Handler, Stamford Director of Administration[64]
- Mark Lauretti, mayor of Shelton and candidate for governor and lieutenant governor in 2014[65][66][67] (endorsed Stefanowski)
- Peter Lumaj, attorney and nominee for secretary of state in 2014[68][69][66] (endorsed Stefanowski)
- Prasad Srinivasan, state representative[70] (endorsed Herbst)
- David M. Walker, former United States Comptroller General and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2014[71][72][66] (endorsed Stefanowski)
Withdrew prior to convention
- Erin Stewart, mayor of New Britain (ran for lieutenant governor)[73]
- Peter Thalheim, attorney and builder[74]
- Joe Visconti, former West Hartford councilman and independent candidate for governor in 2014 (ran for U.S. Senate)[75]
Declined
- Toni Boucher, state senator[76][77]
- Len Fasano, state senator, president pro tempore of the Connecticut Senate[78]
- Tom Foley, former U.S. Ambassador to Ireland and nominee for governor in 2010 and 2014[79][80]
- Tony Hwang, state senator[81]
- Rob Kane, Auditor of Public Accounts and former state senator[82][83]
- Themis Klarides, Minority Leader of the Connecticut House of Representatives[84][85]
- Joe Markley, state senator (running for lieutenant governor)[86]
- John P. McKinney, former state senator and candidate for governor in 2014[87]
Convention
The Republican statewide nominating convention was held May 11–12, 2018 at Foxwoods Resort Casino in Ledyard, Connecticut.
Under the rules established by the convention, any candidate not receiving at least eight percent of the vote would be eliminated in the first round of voting. In the second round of voting, candidates not receiving 15 percent of the vote would be eliminated. In all subsequent rounds of voting, the candidate with the fewest votes would be eliminated, regardless of percentage. Voting would continue until one candidate receives 50 percent plus one of all votes cast.[88]
Results at the convention
| Round | Mark Boughton | Tim Herbst | Steve Obsitnik | Peter Lumaj | Mark Lauretti | David M. Walker | Prasad Srinivasan | Mike Handler | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 277 | 24.4% | 213 | 18.8% | 117 | 10.3% | 167 | 14.7% | 119 | 10.5% | 104 | 9.2% | 90 | 7.9% | 46 | 4.1% |
| 2 | 408 | 36.3% | 319 | 28.4% | 198 | 17.6% | 161 | 14.3% | 26 | 2.3% | 13 | 1.2% | ||||
| 3 | 557 | 50.1% | 454 | 40.9% | 100 | 9.0% | ||||||||||
Primary endorsements
Mark Boughton[89]
- Individuals
- Pete Bass, New Milford mayor
- Mitch Bolinsky, state representative
- Bill Buckbee, state representative
- Vincent Candelora, state representative[90]
- Elinor Carbone, Torrington mayor
- Daniel Champagne, Vernon mayor
- Robert Chatfield, Prospect mayor[91]
- Holly Cheeseman, state representative
- Anthony D'Amelio, state representative[91]
- William Duff, state representative
- Adam Dunsby, state representative[92]
- Michael Fedele, former lieutenant governor of Connecticut
- Michael Ferguson, state representative
- Paul Formica, state senator[93]
- Laura Francis, Durham first selectman
- Carol Hall, state representative[93]
- Stephen Harding, state representative
- Barbara Henry, Roxbury first selectwoman[91]
- Laura Hoydick, Stratford mayor[94]
- Dan Jerram, New Hartford first selectman[93]
- David Labriola, state representative[94]
- Jesse MacLachlan, state representative[93]
- Jeff Manville, Southbury first selectman[94]
- Michael McLachlan, state senator
- Lizz Millardo, Haddam first selectwoman[93]
- Kurt Miller, Seymour first selectman[94]
- Michael Molgano, former state representative[91]
- Mark Nickerson, East Lyme first selectman[91]
- Brian Ohler, state representative[91]
- Leo Paul, Litchfield first selectman
- Rosa Rebimbas, state representative[93]
- Richard Smith, state representative
- Lori Spielman, Ellington first selectman
- J. P. Sredzinski, state representative[91]
- Scott Storms, state representative[93]
- George Temple, Oxford first selectman[94]
- Christopher Tymniak, Fairfield selectman[93]
- Fred Wilms, state representative[93]
- Kevin Witkos, state senator[95]
- Terrie Wood, state representative[93]
- Organizations
Tim Herbst[97]
- Individuals
- David S. Cassetti, Ansonia mayor
- Craig C. Fishbein, state representative[98]
- Mike France, state representative[99]
- Michael Freda, North Haven first selectman
- Ben McGorty, state representative[100]
- John P. McKinney, former state senator[101]
- Richard A. Moccia, former Norwalk mayor
- Michael Pavia, former Stamford mayor
- Robert Siegrist, state representative[98]
- Kevin Skulczyck, state representative[102]
- Prasad Srinivasan, state representative[103]
- Gregory Stokes, state representative
- Organizations
- Connecticut Property Owners Alliance[104]
Steve Obsitnik
Bob Stefanowski
- Individuals
- Tyrell Brown, Middletown Planning and Zoning Commissioner[106]
- Steve Forbes, businessman[107]
- Edward Ford Jr., Middletown Board of Education member
- Noreen Kokoruda, Madison State Representative[108]
- Arthur Laffer, Reagan Economic Policy Advisory Board member (1981-89)[109]
- Mark Lauretti, Shelton mayor[110]
- Mike Ludwick, Enfield mayor[111]
- Peter Lumaj, candidate for Connecticut Secretary of State, 2014[112]
- Len Suzio, Meriden State Senator[113]
- David M. Walker, former U.S. Comptroller General (1998-2008)[114]
- Dave Yaccarino, North Haven State Representative[115]
David Stemerman
Mike Handler (eliminated)
- Individuals
- Melissa Joan Hart, actress[118]
Mark Lauretti (eliminated)
- State legislators
- Dan Debicella, state senator (former)[119]
- Jason Perillo, state representative[119]
- Mayors and other municipal leaders
- Rich Dziekan, Derby mayor[119]
- Kurt Miller, Seymour first selectman[119]
- Ed Mone, Thomaston first selectman[119]
- Republican Town Committee leaders
Peter Lumaj (eliminated)
- Individuals
- Anne Dauphinais, state representative[120]
- Doug Dubitsky, state representative[120]
- Mike France, state representative[120]
- John Fusco, state representative[120]
- Joe Markley, state senator and candidate for lieutenant governor[120]
- Henri Martin, state senator[121]
- Dave Merchant, mayor of Plymouth[120]
- Rob Sampson, state representative[122]
Prasad Srinivasan (eliminated)
- State legislators
- State Rep. Sam Belsito (R-53rd District) of Tolland
- State Rep. Tom Delnicki (R-14th District) of South Windsor
- State Rep. Bill Simanski (R-62nd District) of Granby
- State Rep. Mark Tweedie (R-13th District) of Manchester
- Local officials
- Stewart "Chip" Beckett, member, Glastonbury Town Council
- Tim Devanney, member, Town of Manchester board of directors
- William T. Finn, former member, Glastonbury town council
- Matthew Galligan, member, Town of Manchester board of directors
- Carolyn Mirek, member, South Windsor town council and former mayor
- Robert Morra, member, Town of Bolton board of selectmen
- George P. Norman, member, Glastonbury town council
- Donald Palmer, member, Town of Manchester ways and means committee
- Michael T. Zelasky, chairman, Lisbon board of finance
- State Central Committee
- Michael FitzPatrick (4th senatorial District) of Glastonbury
- Louis Spadaccini (4th senatorial District) of Manchester
- Republican town committee leaders
- John Deeb, chairman, Manchester RTC
- Rodney Fournier, chairman, Bolton RTC
- Ken Hjulstrom, chairman, Marlborough RTC
- Robert Ike, chairman, Bloomfield RTC
- Robert Lynn, chairman, Glastonbury RTC
- Allan Spotts, chairman, Cromwell RTC
- John Tanski, first vice chair, Glastonbury RTC
Erin Stewart (withdrew)
- Individuals
- Tony Guglielmo, state senator[123]
- Nancy Johnson, former U.S. representative[124]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Boughton |
Tim Herbst |
Steve Obsitnik |
Bob Stefanowski |
David Stemerman |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tremont Public Advisors[125] | August 7–9, 2018 | 1,151 | ± 3.0% | 32% | 16% | 11% | 22% | 17% | 3% |
| Tremont Public Advisors[126] | July 18–20, 2018 | 1,006 | ± 3.0% | 34% | 15% | 12% | 20% | 15% | 5% |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R-Stefanowski)[127] | July 21–23, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 18% | 11% | 4% | 29% | 17% | 21% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Boughton |
Mike Handler |
Tim Herbst |
Mark Lauretti |
Peter Lumaj |
Steve Obsitnik |
Prasad Srinivasan |
Bob Stefanowski |
David Stemerman |
Erin Stewart |
Dave Walker |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McLaughlin & Associates (R-Stefanowski)[128] | May 4–6, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 7% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 33% | 2% | 11% | 3% | 30% |
Results
Republican primary results by municipality. Shades of reddenote win for Stefanowski, orange for Boughton, purplefor Stemerman, green for Herbst, and teal for Obsitnik.
Republican primary results by county. Shades of red denote win for Stefanowski. Shades of green denote win for Boughton.
Map legend
- Stefanowski—30–40%
- Stefanowski—<30%
- Boughton—<30%
- Boughton—30–40%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Bob Stefanowski | 42,119 | 29.4 | |
| Republican | Mark D. Boughton | 30,505 | 21.3 | |
| Republican | David Stemerman | 26,276 | 18.3 | |
| Republican | Tim Herbst | 25,144 | 17.6 | |
| Republican | Steve Obsitnik | 19,151 | 13.4 | |
| Total votes | 143,195 | 100.0 | ||
Lieutenant governor
Republican nominee
- Joe Markley, state senator[129]
Lost the Republican primary
- Jayme Stevenson, Darien first selectman[130]
- Erin Stewart, mayor of New Britain[131]
Withdrew
Endorsements
Joe Markley
- Newspapers and other media
Erin Stewart
- Newspapers
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Joe Markley | 65,702 | 47.6 | |
| Republican | Erin Stewart | 45,262 | 32.8 | |
| Republican | Jayme Stevenson | 27,139 | 19.7 | |
| Total votes | 138,103 | 100.0 | ||
Independent
Candidates
Declared
- Oz Griebel, businessman and Republican candidate for governor in 2010[136]
- Running mate: Monte Frank, former president of the Connecticut Bar Association.
Declined
- Joe Scarborough, television personality and former Republican U.S. representative from Florida[137]
Withdrew
Endorsements
Oz Griebel
- Organizations
General election
Endorsements
Bob Stefanowski (R)
- Individuals
- Tyrell Brown, Middletown Planning and Zoning Commissioner[106]
- Steve Forbes, businessman[107]
- Edward Ford Jr., Middletown Board of Education member
- Jim Grasso, son of former Connecticut governor Ella Grasso[139]
- Noreen Kokoruda, Madison state representative[108]
- Arthur Laffer, Reagan Economic Policy Advisory Board member (1981-89)[109]
- Mark Lauretti, Shelton mayor[110]
- Mike Ludwick, Enfield mayor[111]
- Peter Lumaj, candidate for Connecticut Secretary of State, 2014[112]
- David Stemerman, businessman[140]
- Len Suzio, Meriden state senator[113]
- Donald Trump, president of the United States[141]
- David M. Walker, former U.S. Comptroller General (1998-2008)[114]
- Dave Yaccarino, North Haven state representative[115]
- Organizations
- Connecticut Association of Realtors[142]
- Independent Electrical Contractors of New England[142]
- Independent Party of Connecticut[143]
- National Federation of Independent Business[144]
- Newspapers
Ned Lamont (D)
- Federal officials
- Joe Biden, former vice president of the United States[150]
- Richard Blumenthal, U.S. senator (D-CT)[151]
- Joe Courtney, U.S. representative from Connecticut's 2nd congressional district[43]
- Rosa DeLauro, U.S. representative from Connecticut's 3rd congressional district[44]
- Kamala Harris, U.S. senator (D-CA)[152][153]
- Jim Himes, U.S. representative from Connecticut's 4th congressional district[154]
- John Larson, U.S. representative from Connecticut's 1st congressional district[45]
- Chris Murphy, U.S. senator (D-CT)[155]
- Barack Obama, former president of the United States[156][157]
- Individuals
- Paul Bucha, foreign policy adviser to Barack Obama's 2008 presidential campaign[158]
- Statewide officials
- State legislators
- Juan Candelaria, state representative of New Haven[42]
- Michelle Cook, state representative of Torrington[42]
- Michael DiMassa, state representative of New Haven
- Jonathan Harris, former state senator and West Hartford mayor[17]
- Edward M. Kennedy Jr., state senator of Guilford[42][159]
- Martin Looney, pro tempore of the Senate, New Haven[42]
- Ellen Scalettar, former state representative of Woodbridge and former Woodbridge first selectman[42]
- Sean Scanlon, state representative of Guilford[42]
- Party leaders
- Donna Brazile, former chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee[160]
- Kevin Comer, chairman of Washington Democratic town committee[42]
- Karen Jarmoc, member of Democratic state central committee[42]
- Barbara Reynolds, member of Democratic state central committee[42]
- Steven Sheinberg, chairman of Fairfield Democratic town committee[42]
- Audrey Tyson, member of Democratic state central committee[42]
- Newspapers and magazines
- Connecticut Post[161]
- The Day[162]
- The Hour[163]
- The Lakeville Journal[164]
- The News-Times[165]
- Record-Journal[166]
- The Stamford Advocate[167]
- Mayors and other municipal leaders
- Ben Blake, Milford mayor[48]
- Liz Brown, chairperson of board of education of Waterbury[42]
- John Burdick, member of the New Hartford, Connecticut Economic Development Commission (Since 2017) and candidate for New Hartford first selectman (Republican)
- Shari Cantor, West Hartford mayor[42]
- Toni Harp, New Haven mayor[27]
- Beth Heller, Woodbridge first selectman[49]
- Marcia Leclerc, East Hartford mayor[42]
- Eva Magnuszewski, Common Council president of New Britain[42]
- Neil O'Leary, Waterbury mayor[50]
- Curtis Read, Bridgewater first selectman[51]
- Nancy Rossi, West Haven mayor[42]
- 2018 candidates for office
- Amanda Webster, Democratic nominee for Connecticut representative from the 62nd District
- Organizations
- Connecticut Against Gun Violence[168]
- Connecticut League of Conservation Voters[169]
- Everytown for Gun Safety[170]
- Newtown Action Alliance[171]
- Sierra Club of Connecticut[172]
- Labor unions
Oz Griebel (I)
- Newspapers and magazines
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of January 10, 2019 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Ned Lamont (D) | $15,096,464 | $15,909,903 | $410 |
| Bob Stefenowski (R) | $3,226,116 | $6,535,871 | $209 |
| Oz Griebel (I) | $199,606 | $503,305 | $1,428 |
| Source: Connecticut State Elections Enforcement Commission[175] | |||
Debates
| Dates | Location | Lamont | Stefanowski | Griebel | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 18, 2018 | Hartford, Connecticut | Participant | Participant | Participant | Full debate[176] - C-SPAN |
| October 30, 2018 | New Haven, Connecticut | Participant | Participant | Participant | Full debate[177] - C-SPAN |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[178] | Tossup | October 26, 2018 |
| The Washington Post[179] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
| FiveThirtyEight[180] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[181] | Lean D | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[182] | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[183] | Tossup | November 4, 2018 |
| Daily Kos[184] | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News[185][a] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
| Politico[186] | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
| Governing[187] | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
- Notes
- The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ned Lamont (D) |
Bob Stefanowski (R) |
Oz Griebel (I) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing[188] | October 30 – November 1, 2018 | 681 | ± 3.8% | 46% | 37% | 9% | – | 8% |
| Sacred Heart University[189] | October 29–31, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.3% | 38% | 40% | 9% | 1% | 12% |
| Emerson College[190] | October 27–29, 2018 | 780 | ± 3.7% | 46% | 39% | 10% | 0%[a] | 5% |
| Quinnipiac University[191] | October 22–28, 2018 | 1,201 | ± 4.0% | 47% | 43% | 7% | 0% | 4% |
| Sacred Heart University[192] | October 13–17, 2018 | 501 | ± 4.3% | 40% | 36% | 8% | 1% | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-Change Course CT PAC)[193] | October 8–9, 2018 | 828 | – | 43% | 38% | – | – | 19% |
| Quinnipiac University[194] | October 3–8, 2018 | 767 | ± 5.0% | 47% | 39% | 11% | 0% | 3% |
| Sacred Heart University[195] | September 12–17, 2018 | 501 | ± 4.3% | 43% | 37% | – | 4% | 16% |
| Gravis Marketing[196] | August 24–27, 2018 | 606 | ± 4.0% | 49% | 40% | – | – | 12% |
| Quinnipiac University[197] | August 16–21, 2018 | 1,029 | ± 3.9% | 46% | 33% | 4% | 2%[b] | 14% |
| 53% | 37% | – | – | 6% | ||||
| Sacred Heart University[198] | August 16–21, 2018 | 502 | ± 4.3% | 41% | 37% | – | 6% | 17% |
Hypothetical polling
with Ned Lamont and Mark Boughton
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ned Lamont (D) |
Mark Boughton (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tremont Public Advisors[199] | May 3–5, 2018 | 550 | ± 4.5% | 50% | 40% | 11% |
with Ned Lamont and Erin Stewart
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ned Lamont (D) |
Erin Stewart (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tremont Public Advisors[199] | May 3–5, 2018 | 550 | ± 4.5% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
with Susan Bysiewicz and Erin Stewart
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Susan Bysiewicz (D) |
Erin Stewart (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tremont Public Advisors[199] | May 3–5, 2018 | 550 | ± 4.5% | 40% | 50% | 10% |
with Susan Bysiewicz and Mark Boughton
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Susan Bysiewicz (D) |
Mark Boughton (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tremont Public Advisors[199] | May 3–5, 2018 | 550 | ± 4.5% | 42% | 47% | 11% |
with generic Democrat and Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Generic Democrat |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tremont Public Advisors[199] | May 3–5, 2018 | 550 | ± 4.5% | 43% | 50% | 7% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Ned Lamont | 676,649 | 48.10% | −0.36% | |
| Working Families | Ned Lamont | 17,861 | 1.27% | −1.00% | |
| Total | Ned Lamont | 694,510 | 49.37% | -1.36% | |
| Republican | Bob Stefanowski | 624,750 | 44.41% | −1.71% | |
| Independent Party | Bob Stefanowski | 25,388 | 1.80% | −0.24% | |
| Total | Bob Stefanowski | 650,138 | 46.21% | −1.95% | |
| Griebel-Frank for CT Party | Oz Griebel | 54,741 | 3.89% | N/A | |
| Libertarian | Rod Hanscomb | 6,086 | 0.43% | N/A | |
| Amigo Constitution Liberty | Mark Greenstein | 1,254 | 0.09% | N/A | |
| Write-in | Lee Whitnum | 74 | 0.01% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 1,406,803 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
By county
Lamont won four of eight counties, while Stefenowski won the other four.
| County | Ned Lamont Democratic |
Bob Stefenowski Republican |
Other parties Independent |
Total votes cast | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fairfield | 188,334 | 53.01% | 160,641 | 45.22% | 6,283 | 1.77% | 355,258 |
| Hartford | 179,182 | 51.74% | 144,218 | 41.64% | 22,930 | 6.62% | 346,330 |
| Litchfield | 32,125 | 37.61% | 49,280 | 57.69% | 4,015 | 4.70% | 85,420 |
| Middlesex | 36,483 | 45.78% | 38,678 | 48.54% | 4,524 | 5.68% | 79,685 |
| New Haven | 160,406 | 49.39% | 153,865 | 47.38% | 10,485 | 3.23% | 324,756 |
| New London | 50,417 | 47.38% | 49,364 | 46.39% | 6,625 | 6.23% | 106,406 |
| Tolland | 29,992 | 45.13% | 31,882 | 47.98% | 4,576 | 6.89% | 66,450 |
| Windham | 17,571 | 41.42% | 22,210 | 52.35% | 2,643 | 6.23% | 42,424 |
| Total | 694,510 | 49.37% | 650,138 | 46.22% | 62,081 | 4.41% | 1,406,729 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Middlesex (largest town: Middletown)
By congressional district
Lamont won three of five congressional districts, while Stefenowski won two, both of which were held by Democrats.[201]
| District | Ned Lamont Democratic |
Bob Stefenowski Republican |
Other parties Independent |
Total votes cast | Representative | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | |||
| 1st | 146,577 | 52.21% | 115,799 | 41.25% | 18,375 | 6.54% | 280,751 | John B. Larson |
| 2nd | 131,943 | 44.67% | 145,057 | 49.11% | 18,361 | 6.22% | 295,361 | Joe Courtney |
| 3rd | 142,570 | 51.64% | 124,877 | 45.23% | 8,634 | 3.13% | 276,081 | Rosa DeLauro |
| 4th | 149,528 | 53.50% | 125,583 | 44.93% | 4,395 | 1.57% | 279,506 | Jim Himes |
| 5th | 123,892 | 45.03% | 138,822 | 50.46% | 12,390 | 4.50% | 275,104 | Elizabeth Esty |
| Totals | 694,510 | 49.37% | 650,138 | 46.22% | 62,155 | 4.41% | 1,406,803 | |