2018 South Carolina gubernatorial election
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2018 South Carolina gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor of South Carolina. Incumbent Republican Governor Henry McMaster, who took office after Nikki Haley resigned to become U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, ran for election to a full term. The primary was held on June 12, with the Democrats nominating State Representative James E. Smith Jr. McMaster failed to win a majority of the vote, and then defeated John Warren in the Republican runoff on June 26. In the general election, McMaster defeated Smith, winning election to a full term.[1]
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November 6, 2018
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   McMaster: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Smith: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Republicans won their fifth straight gubernatorial election in the state, their longest such streak in history.
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Henry McMaster, incumbent governor[2][3]
- Running mate: Pamela Evette, businesswoman[4]
Defeated in runoff
Defeated in primary
- Kevin Bryant, incumbent lieutenant governor[8]
- Yancey McGill, former Democratic lieutenant governor and former Democratic state senator[9][2]
- Catherine Templeton, attorney, former director of the Department of Health and Environmental Control and former director of the Department of Labor, Licensing and Regulation[10]
- Running mate: Walt Wilkins III, Greenville County Solicitor[11]
Declined
- Tom Davis, state senator[12]
- Jeff Duncan, U.S. representative[13][14]
- Mikee Johnson, businessman and former chairman of the South Carolina Chamber of Commerce (endorsed Catherine Templeton)[15]
- Tim Scott, U.S. senator[16][17][18]
- Joe Taylor, former South Carolina secretary of commerce[19][20]
- Billy Wilkins, former chief judge of the United States Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit[2][21][22]
- Alan Wilson, attorney general (ran for re-election)[13][2][23]
Endorsements
Catherine Templeton
- State figures
- Wes Climer, state senator[24]
- Bobby Harrell, former Speaker of South Carolina House of Representatives[25]
- Ralph Norman, member of the United States House of Representatives from South Carolina[24]
- Organizations
John Warren
- State figures
- Elise Bidwell, member of South Carolina Educational Television Commission
- Kevin L. Bryant, 91st lieutenant governor of South Carolina and defeated candidate in gubernatorial Republican primary[27]
- Tom Davis, state senator[28]
- Pat McKinney, former chairman of the State Ports Authority, later chosen as Warren's running mate[29]
- Ralph Norman, member of the United States House of Representatives from South Carolina[30]
- Phil Robertson, star of Duck Dynasty[31]
- Catherine Templeton, businesswoman and defeated candidate in gubernatorial Republican primary
- Knox H. White, mayor of Greenville[32]
First round
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Henry McMaster | Kevin Bryant | Yancey McGill | Catherine Templeton | John Warren | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R-Warren)[33] | May 29–31, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 33% | 5% | 2% | 17% | 19% | – | 24% |
| Target-Insyght[34] | May 29–31, 2018 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 37% | 4% | 3% | 25% | 20% | – | 11% |
| Target-Insyght[35] | April 3–5, 2018 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 46% | 6% | 4% | 22% | 1% | – | 22% |
| TargetPoint/GQR[36] | March 10–17, 2018 | 397 | – | 41% | 5% | 3% | 10% | 2% | – | 35% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[37] | November 29 – December 30, 2017 | 2,223 | ± 2.1% | 40% | 11% | 3% | 8% | – | 10% | 28% |
| Mason-Dixon[38] | December 6–10, 2017 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 51% | 8% | 1% | 21% | – | – | 19% |
| South Carolina Public Affairs[39] | October 10–11, 2017 | 633 | ± 4.0% | 33% | 5% | 5% | 7% | – | – | 50% |
Debate
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Republican | Republican | Republican | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
|||||||||
| Kevin Bryant | Henry McMaster | Yancey McGill | Catherine Templeton | John Warren | |||||
| 1 | Jun. 6, 2018 | The Post and Courier South Carolina ETV South Carolina Public Radio |
Charles Bierbauer | YouTube | P | P | P | P | P |
Results
McMaster
- McMaster—60–70%
- McMaster—50–60%
- McMaster—40–50%
- McMaster—30–40%
Warren
- Warren—30–40%
- Warren—40–50%
Templeton
- Templeton—40–50%
McGill
- McGill—40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Henry McMaster (incumbent) | 155,723 | 42.32% | |
| Republican | John Warren | 102,390 | 27.82% | |
| Republican | Catherine Templeton | 78,705 | 21.39% | |
| Republican | Kevin Bryant | 24,790 | 6.74% | |
| Republican | Yancey McGill | 6,375 | 1.73% | |
| Total votes | 367,983 | 100.00% | ||
Runoff
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Henry McMaster |
John Warren |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[41] | June 19–21, 2018 | 1,650 | ± 3.0% | 54% | 37% | 9% |
| Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R-Warren)[42] | June 19–20, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 42% | 46% | 13% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[43] | June 13–14, 2018 | 1,000 | ± 3.0% | 60% | 31% | 9% |
Results
McMaster
- McMaster—80–90%
- McMaster—70–80%
- McMaster—60–70%
- McMaster—50–60%
Warren
- Warren—50–60%
- Warren—60–70%
- Warren—70–80%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Henry McMaster (incumbent) | 184,286 | 53.63% | |
| Republican | John Warren | 159,349 | 46.37% | |
| Total votes | 343,635 | 100.00% | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- James Smith, state representative[45]
- Running mate: Mandy Powers Norrell, state representative[46]
Defeated in primary
- Phil Noble, business and technology consultant and candidate for lieutenant governor in 1994[47]
- Running mate: Gloria Bromell Tinubu, former Atlanta, Georgia, city councilwoman, former Georgia state representative and nominee for SC-07 in 2012 and 2014[48]
- Marguerite Willis, attorney[49]
- Running mate: John Scott, state senator[50]
Declined
- Steve Benjamin, Mayor of Columbia[13][2][51][52]
- Marlon Kimpson, state senator[2][53][51][54]
- Inez Tenenbaum, former State Superintendent of Education, former chair of the Consumer Product Safety Commission and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2004[53][51]
Endorsements
Phil Noble
- Doug Jones, U.S. senator from Alabama[55]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Phil Noble |
James Smith |
Marguerite Willis |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target-Insyght[35] | April 3–5, 2018 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 27% | 27% | 21% | – | 25% |
| TargetPoint/GQR[36] | March 10–17, 2018 | 296 | – | 7% | 18% | 11% | – | 57% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[37] | November 29 – December 30, 2017 | 2,223 | ± 2.1% | 25% | 20% | – | 21% | 34% |
Debate
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Democratic | Democratic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
|||||||
| Phil Noble | James Smith | Marguerite Willis | |||||
| 1 | May 15, 2018 | College of Charleston, WACH, WCIV-TV, WLOS, WMYA-TV & WPDE-TV |
Tessa Spencer Adams | YouTube | P | P | P |
Results
Smith
- Smith—70–80%
- Smith—60–70%
- Smith—50–60%
- Smith—40–50%
Willis
- Willis—40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | James Smith | 148,633 | 61.81% | |
| Democratic | Marguerite Willis | 66,248 | 27.55% | |
| Democratic | Phil Noble | 25,587 | 10.64% | |
| Total votes | 240,468 | 100.00% | ||
Independents and third parties
Declared
Failed nomination
- Martin Barry (American Party), medication researcher,[58] nomination declined by the American Party[59]
- Running mate: James Cartee, theater director
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[60] | Likely R | October 26, 2018 |
| The Washington Post[61] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
| FiveThirtyEight[62] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[63] | Safe R | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[64] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[65] | Safe R | November 4, 2018 |
| Daily Kos[66] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News[67][a] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
| Politico[68] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
| Governing[69] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
- Notes
- The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races
Endorsements
Henry McMaster (R)
- U.S. executive branch officials
- Mike Pence, 48th vice president of the United States[70]
- Donald Trump, 45th president of The United States[71]
- State figures
- Kevin Brackett, South Carolina circuit solicitor[72]
- Tom Rice, U.S. representative (SC-7)[73]
- Katrina Shealy, state senator[74]
- Scarlett Wilson, South Carolina circuit solicitor[72]
- Organizations
- NRA Political Victory Fund[75]
- SC Citizens for Life[76]
- Newspapers
James Smith (D)
- Former U.S. executive branch officials
- U.S. senators
- Bernie Sanders, U.S. senator (I-VT)[79]
- U.S. representatives
- James Clyburn, U.S. representative (D-SC)[80]
- Local and statewide politicians
- Robert Barber, former state representative[54]
- Steve Benjamin, current mayor of Columbia[52]
- Floyd Breeland, former state representative[54]
- Margie Bright Matthews, state senator[54]
- Robert Brown, state representative[54]
- Wendell Gilliard, state representative[54]
- Jim Hodges, former governor of South Carolina[81]
- Joe Jefferson, state representative[54]
- Marlon Kimpson, state senator[54]
- Marvin Pendarvis, state representative[54]
- Vic Rawl, chairman of the Charleston County Council[54]
- Joe Riley, former mayor of Charleston, SC[82]
- Richard Riley, former United States Secretary of Education and former governor of South Carolina[83]
- Leon Stavrinakis, state representative[54]
- Mary Tinkler, Charleston County Treasurer and former state representative[54]
- Individuals
- Jay Inslee, governor of Washington and chairman of the Democratic Governors Association[84]
- Organizations
- Conservation Voters of South Carolina[85]
- Our Revolution SC[79]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[86]
- Sierra Club South Carolina chapter[87]
- South Carolina Equality[88]
- VoteVets.org[89]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Henry McMaster (R) |
James Smith (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[90] | October 29–31, 2018 | 3,792 | ± 1.6% | 54% | 38% | 8% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[91] | October 12–14, 2018 | 4,830 | ± 2.1% | 56% | 32% | 12% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[92] | September 24 – October 2, 2018 | 2,692 | ± 1.9% | 51% | 37% | 13% |
| The Tarrance Group (R-RGA)[93] | August 11–13, 2018 | 601 | ± 4.1% | 52% | 41% | 7% |
| Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Smith)[94] | August 6–9, 2018 | 605 | ± 4.1% | 47% | 43% | 10% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Henry McMaster (incumbent) | 921,342 | 53.96% | −1.94% | |
| Democratic | James Smith | 784,182 | 45.92% | +4.50% | |
| Write-in | 2,045 | 0.12% | +0.05% | ||
| Total votes | 1,707,569 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
By county
| County | Henry McMaster Republican |
James Smith Democratic |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Abbeville | 5,451 | 63.6% | 3,113 | 36.3% | 8 | 0.1% | 2,338 | 27.3% | 8,572 |
| Aiken | 36,801 | 61.7% | 22,754 | 38.2% | 57 | 0.1% | 14,047 | 23.5% | 59,612 |
| Allendale | 608 | 21.0% | 2,289 | 79.0% | 1 | 0.0% | -1,681 | -58.0% | 2,898 |
| Anderson | 43,412 | 69.0% | 19,386 | 30.8% | 95 | 0.2% | 24,026 | 38.2% | 62,893 |
| Bamberg | 1,552 | 35.4% | 2,828 | 64.5% | 2 | 0.0% | -1,276 | -29.1% | 4,382 |
| Barnwell | 3,734 | 51.2% | 3,549 | 48.7% | 6 | 0.1% | 185 | 2.5% | 7,289 |
| Beaufort | 38,399 | 54.5% | 31,971 | 45.4% | 63 | 0.1% | 6,428 | 9.1% | 70,433 |
| Berkeley | 35,107 | 53.5% | 30,452 | 46.4% | 110 | 0.2% | 4,655 | 7.1% | 65,669 |
| Calhoun | 2,952 | 49.6% | 2,990 | 50.3% | 6 | 0.1% | -38 | -0.7% | 5,948 |
| Charleston | 62,642 | 42.5% | 84,634 | 57.4% | 175 | 0.1% | -21,992 | -14.9% | 147,451 |
| Cherokee | 11,730 | 70.2% | 4,964 | 29.7% | 17 | 0.1% | 6,766 | 40.5% | 16,711 |
| Chester | 5,665 | 52.1% | 5,195 | 47.8% | 3 | 0.0% | 470 | 4.3% | 10,863 |
| Chesterfield | 6,730 | 56.2% | 5,241 | 43.8% | 6 | 0.1% | 1,489 | 12.4% | 11,977 |
| Clarendon | 5,722 | 47.3% | 6,365 | 52.6% | 3 | 0.0% | -643 | -5.3% | 12,090 |
| Colleton | 6,891 | 52.1% | 6,321 | 47.8% | 14 | 0.1% | 570 | 4.3% | 13,226 |
| Darlington | 11,871 | 50.9% | 11,436 | 49.0% | 8 | 0.1% | 435 | 1.9% | 23,315 |
| Dillon | 4,052 | 49.5% | 4,141 | 50.5% | 1 | 0.0% | -89 | -1.0% | 8,194 |
| Dorchester | 27,563 | 54.2% | 23,275 | 45.7% | 58 | 0.1% | 4,288 | 8.5% | 50,896 |
| Edgefield | 5,636 | 60.0% | 3,747 | 39.9% | 9 | 0.1% | 1,889 | 20.1% | 9,392 |
| Fairfield | 3,409 | 36.7% | 5,865 | 63.2% | 5 | 0.1% | -2,456 | -26.5% | 9,279 |
| Florence | 22,947 | 50.4% | 22,533 | 49.5% | 36 | 0.1% | 414 | 0.9% | 45,516 |
| Georgetown | 14,083 | 54.5% | 11,760 | 45.4% | 15 | 0.1% | 2,323 | 9.1% | 25,858 |
| Greenville | 102,195 | 57.9% | 74,007 | 41.9% | 369 | 0.2% | 28,188 | 16.0% | 176,571 |
| Greenwood | 13,973 | 60.4% | 9,140 | 39.5% | 34 | 0.1% | 4,833 | 20.9% | 23,147 |
| Hampton | 2,558 | 38.6% | 4,051 | 61.2% | 15 | 0.2% | -1,493 | -22.6% | 6,624 |
| Horry | 71,985 | 65.1% | 38,574 | 34.9% | 79 | 0.1% | 33,411 | 30.2% | 110,638 |
| Jasper | 4,346 | 46.4% | 5,002 | 53.4% | 12 | 0.1% | -656 | -7.0% | 9,360 |
| Kershaw | 13,881 | 59.1% | 9,588 | 40.8% | 28 | 0.1% | 4,293 | 18.3% | 23,497 |
| Lancaster | 19,554 | 59.5% | 13,297 | 40.4% | 21 | 0.1% | 6,257 | 19.1% | 32,872 |
| Laurens | 12,899 | 63.4% | 7,415 | 36.4% | 34 | 0.2% | 5,484 | 27.0% | 20,348 |
| Lee | 2,174 | 34.1% | 4,190 | 65.8% | 4 | 0.1% | -2,016 | -31.7% | 6,368 |
| Lexington | 62,544 | 62.8% | 36,854 | 37.0% | 153 | 0.2% | 25,690 | 25.8% | 99,551 |
| Marion | 3,963 | 38.0% | 6,450 | 61.9% | 8 | 0.1% | -2,487 | -23.9% | 10,421 |
| Marlboro | 3,166 | 40.8% | 4,594 | 59.1% | 7 | 0.1% | -1,428 | -18.3% | 7,767 |
| McCormick | 2,327 | 52.5% | 2,103 | 47.5% | 1 | 0.0% | 224 | 5.0% | 4,431 |
| Newberry | 7,644 | 58.7% | 5,374 | 41.2% | 12 | 0.1% | 2,270 | 17.5% | 13,030 |
| Oconee | 19,599 | 71.1% | 7,945 | 28.8% | 38 | 0.1% | 11,654 | 42.3% | 27,582 |
| Orangeburg | 9,222 | 30.1% | 21,402 | 69.8% | 19 | 0.1% | -12,180 | -39.7% | 30,643 |
| Pickens | 28,139 | 72.9% | 10,393 | 26.9% | 82 | 0.2% | 17,746 | 46.0% | 38,614 |
| Richland | 41,793 | 29.5% | 99,476 | 70.3% | 169 | 0.1% | -57,683 | -40.8% | 141,438 |
| Saluda | 4,516 | 65.7% | 2,356 | 34.3% | 4 | 0.1% | 2,160 | 31.4% | 6,876 |
| Spartanburg | 58,442 | 61.6% | 36,264 | 38.2% | 168 | 0.2% | 22,178 | 23.4% | 94,874 |
| Sumter | 14,578 | 42.3% | 19,830 | 57.6% | 18 | 0.1% | -5,252 | -15.3% | 34,426 |
| Union | 5,208 | 58.2% | 3,728 | 41.7% | 7 | 0.1% | 1,480 | 16.5% | 8,943 |
| Williamsburg | 3,774 | 32.7% | 7,769 | 67.2% | 11 | 0.1% | -3,995 | -34.5% | 11,554 |
| York | 55,905 | 58.5% | 39,571 | 41.4% | 54 | 0.1% | 16,334 | 17.1% | 95,530 |
| Totals | 921,342 | 53.96% | 784,182 | 45.92% | 2,045 | 0.12% | 137,160 | 8.04% | 1,707,569 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Darlington (largest city: Hartsville)
By congressional district
McMaster won six of seven congressional districts, including one that elected a Democratic representative.[95]
| District | McMaster | Smith | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 52% | 48% | Mark Sanford |
| Joe Cunningham | |||
| 2nd | 54% | 46% | Joe Wilson |
| 3rd | 67% | 33% | Jeff Duncan |
| 4th | 59% | 41% | Trey Gowdy |
| William Timmons | |||
| 5th | 57% | 43% | Ralph Norman |
| 6th | 30% | 70% | Jim Clyburn |
| 7th | 57% | 43% | Tom Rice |