2018 United States House of Representatives election in South Dakota
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The 2018 United States House of Representatives election in South Dakota was held on November 6, to elect the U.S. representative for South Dakota's at-large congressional district. The election coincided with other statewide, legislative, and local elections.
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November 6, 2018
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  Johnson: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Bjorkman: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Tie: 40–50% | |||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Republican U.S. Representative Kristi Noem did not run for a fifth term and instead ran successfully for governor of South Dakota.[1] This was the first open seat election since 2004, and the first time a male candidate was elected since 2002. This was the last U.S. House election in South Dakota until 2024 that a Democrat appeared on the November ballot.
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Dusty Johnson, former chairman of the South Dakota Public Utilities Commission and former chief of staff to Governor Dennis Daugaard[2]
- Shantel Krebs, Secretary of State of South Dakota[2]
- Neal Tapio, state senator, businessman and former Trump campaign director for South Dakota[3]
Declined
- Kristi Noem, incumbent U.S. representative (running for governor)[1]
- Eric Terrell[4][5]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Dusty Johnson |
Shantel Krebs |
Neal Tapio |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon[6] | May 21–23, 2018 | 625 | ± 4.5% | 41% | 23% | 13% | 23% |
Primary results
Johnson
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
Krebs
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
Tapio
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Dusty Johnson | 47,032 | 46.8 | |
| Republican | Shantel Krebs | 29,442 | 29.3 | |
| Republican | Neal Tapio | 23,980 | 24.0 | |
| Total votes | 100,454 | 100 | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Tim Bjorkman, former circuit court judge[7]
Failed to file
- Chris Martian, former IT professional[8]
Declined
- Shawn Bordeaux, state representative[9]
- Troy Heinert, state senator[9]
- Mike Huether, mayor of Sioux Falls (switched to Independent)[10]
- Brendan Johnson, former United States Attorney for the District of South Dakota[11]
- J.R. LaPlante, former South Dakota Secretary of Tribal Relations and State House candidate in 2016[9]
- Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, former U.S. representative[11][12]
- Billie Sutton, Minority Leader of the South Dakota Senate (running for governor)[13][14]
Libertarian nomination
Independents
Candidates
Declined
- Mike Huether, mayor of Sioux Falls[10][17][18]
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[19] | Solid R | June 1, 2018 |
| The Rothenberg Political Report[20] | Solid R | June 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[21] | Safe R | June 6, 2018 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Dusty Johnson (R) |
Tim Bjorkman (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research (D)[22] | November 2–4, 2018 | 851 | – | 51% | 41% | 5%[23] | – |
| Emerson College[24] | November 1–4, 2018 | 514 | ± 4.5% | 54% | 38% | – | 5% |
| Mason-Dixon[25] | October 18–22, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 54% | 31% | 3%[26] | 12% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R-Johnson)[27] | August 1–3 & 5, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 54% | 33% | – | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-Bjorkman)[28] | July 19–20, 2018 | 641 | ± 3.9% | 43% | 33% | – | 14% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Dusty Johnson | 202,695 | 60.33% | −3.77% | |
| Democratic | Tim Bjorkman | 121,033 | 36.03% | +0.13% | |
| Independent | Ron Wieczorek | 7,323 | 2.18% | N/A | |
| Libertarian | George D. Hendrickson | 4,914 | 1.46% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 335,965 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
By county
| County[29] | Dusty Johnson Republican |
Tim Bjorkman Democratic |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Aurora | 728 | 57.78% | 443 | 35.16% | 89 | 7.06% | 285 | 22.62% | 1,260 |
| Beadle | 3,825 | 63.40% | 1,983 | 32.87% | 225 | 3.73% | 1,842 | 30.53% | 6,033 |
| Bennett | 604 | 56.08% | 438 | 40.67% | 35 | 3.25% | 166 | 15.41% | 1,077 |
| Bon Homme | 1,674 | 61.75% | 940 | 34.67% | 97 | 3.58% | 734 | 27.07% | 2,711 |
| Brookings | 6,418 | 55.08% | 4,717 | 40.48% | 518 | 4.45% | 1,701 | 14.60% | 11,653 |
| Brown | 8,346 | 58.61% | 5,482 | 38.50% | 411 | 2.89% | 2,864 | 20.11% | 14,239 |
| Brule | 1,231 | 57.98% | 814 | 38.34% | 78 | 3.67% | 417 | 19.64% | 2,123 |
| Buffalo | 172 | 32.45% | 330 | 62.26% | 28 | 5.28% | -158 | -29.81% | 530 |
| Butte | 2,799 | 73.97% | 836 | 22.09% | 149 | 3.94% | 1,963 | 51.88% | 3,784 |
| Campbell | 601 | 82.90% | 108 | 14.90% | 16 | 2.21% | 493 | 68.00% | 725 |
| Charles Mix | 2,085 | 59.07% | 1,319 | 37.37% | 126 | 3.57% | 766 | 21.70% | 3,530 |
| Clark | 1,150 | 69.74% | 452 | 27.41% | 47 | 2.85% | 698 | 42.33% | 1,649 |
| Clay | 1,906 | 41.37% | 2,567 | 55.72% | 134 | 2.91% | -661 | -14.35% | 4,607 |
| Codington | 7,129 | 67.52% | 3,144 | 29.78% | 285 | 2.70% | 3,985 | 37.74% | 10,558 |
| Corson | 484 | 44.61% | 557 | 51.34% | 44 | 4.06% | -73 | -6.73% | 1,085 |
| Custer | 2,944 | 67.25% | 1,273 | 29.08% | 161 | 3.68% | 1,671 | 38.17% | 4,378 |
| Davison | 4,807 | 66.30% | 2,160 | 29.79% | 283 | 3.90% | 2,647 | 36.51% | 7,250 |
| Day | 1,541 | 56.72% | 1,072 | 39.46% | 104 | 3.83% | 469 | 17.26% | 2,717 |
| Deuel | 1,272 | 64.60% | 624 | 31.69% | 73 | 3.71% | 648 | 32.91% | 1,969 |
| Dewey | 623 | 34.75% | 1,084 | 60.46% | 86 | 4.80% | -461 | -25.71% | 1,793 |
| Douglas | 1,162 | 77.78% | 265 | 17.74% | 67 | 4.48% | 897 | 60.04% | 1,494 |
| Edmunds | 1,147 | 68.07% | 488 | 28.96% | 50 | 2.97% | 659 | 39.11% | 1,685 |
| Fall River | 2,149 | 67.51% | 882 | 27.71% | 152 | 4.78% | 1,267 | 39.81% | 3,183 |
| Faulk | 780 | 73.24% | 255 | 23.94% | 30 | 2.82% | 525 | 49.30% | 1,065 |
| Grant | 2,121 | 66.51% | 945 | 29.63% | 123 | 3.86% | 1,176 | 36.88% | 3,189 |
| Gregory | 1,484 | 69.93% | 586 | 27.62% | 52 | 2.45% | 898 | 42.32% | 2,122 |
| Haakon | 796 | 84.68% | 117 | 12.45% | 27 | 2.87% | 679 | 72.23% | 940 |
| Hamlin | 1,939 | 71.60% | 695 | 25.66% | 74 | 2.73% | 1,244 | 45.94% | 2,708 |
| Hand | 1,171 | 71.01% | 429 | 26.02% | 49 | 2.97% | 742 | 45.00% | 1,649 |
| Hanson | 1,022 | 64.04% | 536 | 33.58% | 38 | 2.38% | 486 | 30.45% | 1,596 |
| Harding | 568 | 83.28% | 94 | 13.78% | 20 | 2.93% | 474 | 69.50% | 682 |
| Hughes | 5,366 | 67.43% | 2,332 | 29.30% | 260 | 3.27% | 3,034 | 38.13% | 7,958 |
| Hutchinson | 2,281 | 69.76% | 883 | 27.00% | 106 | 3.24% | 1,398 | 42.75% | 3,270 |
| Hyde | 462 | 70.75% | 164 | 25.11% | 27 | 4.13% | 298 | 45.64% | 653 |
| Jackson | 575 | 59.16% | 370 | 38.07% | 27 | 2.78% | 205 | 21.09% | 972 |
| Jerauld | 567 | 62.51% | 312 | 34.40% | 28 | 3.09% | 255 | 28.11% | 907 |
| Jones | 420 | 77.49% | 94 | 17.34% | 28 | 5.17% | 326 | 60.15% | 542 |
| Kingsbury | 1,507 | 61.97% | 855 | 35.16% | 70 | 2.88% | 652 | 26.81% | 2,432 |
| Lake | 3,110 | 60.15% | 1,925 | 37.23% | 135 | 2.61% | 1,185 | 22.92% | 5,170 |
| Lawrence | 6,868 | 63.33% | 3,489 | 32.17% | 487 | 4.49% | 3,379 | 31.16% | 10,844 |
| Lincoln | 15,049 | 62.69% | 8,266 | 34.43% | 690 | 2.87% | 6,783 | 28.26% | 24,005 |
| Lyman | 830 | 60.01% | 500 | 36.15% | 53 | 3.83% | 330 | 23.86% | 1,383 |
| Marshall | 1,024 | 52.65% | 860 | 44.22% | 61 | 3.14% | 164 | 8.43% | 1,945 |
| McCook | 1,373 | 55.27% | 1,047 | 42.15% | 64 | 2.58% | 326 | 13.12% | 2,484 |
| McPherson | 798 | 76.22% | 216 | 20.63% | 33 | 3.15% | 582 | 55.59% | 1,047 |
| Meade | 7,160 | 70.60% | 2,508 | 24.73% | 474 | 4.67% | 4,652 | 45.87% | 10,142 |
| Mellette | 358 | 51.22% | 303 | 43.35% | 38 | 5.44% | 55 | 7.87% | 699 |
| Miner | 642 | 58.42% | 413 | 37.58% | 44 | 4.00% | 229 | 20.84% | 1,099 |
| Minnehaha | 38,017 | 54.33% | 29,365 | 41.97% | 2,592 | 3.70% | 8,652 | 12.36% | 69,974 |
| Moody | 1,622 | 57.42% | 1,090 | 38.58% | 113 | 4.00% | 532 | 18.83% | 2,825 |
| Oglala Lakota | 336 | 11.35% | 2,473 | 83.52% | 152 | 5.13% | -2,137 | -72.17% | 2,961 |
| Pennington | 25,433 | 61.51% | 14,092 | 34.08% | 1,821 | 4.40% | 11,341 | 27.43% | 41,346 |
| Perkins | 1,064 | 79.82% | 224 | 16.80% | 45 | 3.38% | 840 | 63.02% | 1,333 |
| Potter | 923 | 77.17% | 248 | 20.74% | 25 | 2.09% | 675 | 56.44% | 1,196 |
| Roberts | 1,915 | 51.98% | 1,664 | 45.17% | 105 | 2.85% | 251 | 6.81% | 3,684 |
| Sanborn | 678 | 66.67% | 292 | 28.71% | 47 | 4.62% | 386 | 37.95% | 1,017 |
| Spink | 1,736 | 62.45% | 958 | 34.46% | 86 | 3.09% | 778 | 27.99% | 2,780 |
| Stanley | 1,042 | 70.45% | 377 | 25.49% | 60 | 4.06% | 665 | 44.96% | 1,479 |
| Sully | 613 | 75.77% | 182 | 22.50% | 14 | 1.73% | 431 | 53.28% | 809 |
| Todd | 506 | 23.05% | 1,598 | 72.80% | 91 | 4.15% | -1,092 | -49.75% | 2,195 |
| Tripp | 1,814 | 74.28% | 556 | 22.77% | 72 | 2.95% | 1,258 | 51.52% | 2,442 |
| Turner | 2,467 | 64.14% | 1,262 | 32.81% | 117 | 3.04% | 1,205 | 31.33% | 3,846 |
| Union | 4,282 | 64.69% | 2,152 | 32.51% | 185 | 2.79% | 2,130 | 32.18% | 6,619 |
| Walworth | 1,648 | 73.44% | 528 | 23.53% | 68 | 3.03% | 1,120 | 49.91% | 2,244 |
| Yankton | 5,191 | 58.44% | 3,383 | 38.09% | 308 | 3.47% | 1,808 | 20.36% | 8,882 |
| Ziebach | 340 | 42.66% | 417 | 52.32% | 40 | 5.02% | -77 | -9.66% | 797 |
| Totals | 202,695 | 60.33% | 121,033 | 36.03% | 12,237 | 3.64% | 81,662 | 24.31% | 335,965 |
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Corson (largest city: McLaughlin)
