2018 United States House of Representatives elections in New Mexico

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The 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in New Mexico were held on November 6, 2018, to elect the three U.S. representatives from the state of New Mexico, one from each of the state's three congressional districts. The elections coincided with the gubernatorial election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections.

Quick facts All 3 New Mexico seats to the United States House of Representatives, Majority party ...
2018 United States House of Representatives elections in New Mexico

 2016
November 6, 2018 (2018-11-06)
2020 

All 3 New Mexico seats to the United States House of Representatives
  Majority party Minority party
 
Party Democratic Republican
Last election 2 1
Seats won 3 0
Seat change Increase1 Decrease1
Popular vote 400,702 262,714
Percentage 58.25% 38.20%
Swing Increase2.24% Decrease5.79%

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The Democratic party gained the 2nd Congressional seat, gaining unitary control of New Mexico's Congressional (House and Senate) delegation for the first time since 2008 and improving the advantage in the House delegation for New Mexico from 2–1 in favor of Democrats to 3–0.

Overview

Results of the 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in New Mexico by district:[1]

More information District, Democratic ...
District Democratic Republican Others Total Result
Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%
District 1147,33659.13%90,50736.33%11,3194.54%249,162100%Democratic hold
District 2101,48950.93%97,76749.07%n/a199,256100%Democratic gain
District 3148,50160.64%76,42731.21%13,2655.42%244,893100%Democratic hold
Total404,02658.27%264,70138.18%24,5843.55%693,311100%
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District 1

Quick facts Nominee, Party ...
2018 New Mexico's 1st congressional district election

 2016
2020 
 
Nominee Deb Haaland Janice Arnold-Jones
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 147,336 90,507
Percentage 59.1% 36.3%

Haaland:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Jones:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
     No votes

U.S. Representative before election

Michelle Lujan Grisham
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Deb Haaland
Democratic

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The 1st district is centered around the Albuquerque metropolitan area. Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham, who had represented the district since 2013, was reelected to a third term with 65% of the vote in 2016. Lujan Grisham did not run for reelection and instead successfully ran for governor of New Mexico.[2]

New Mexico's 1st district was one of 36 Democrat-held House districts targeted by the National Republican Congressional Committee in 2018.[3]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared
Withdrew
Declined

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Pat
Davis
Deb
Haaland
Damian
Lara
Damon
Martinez
Paul
Moya
Antoinette
Sedillo-Lopez
Other Undecided
Albuquerque Journal[17] May 20–24, 2018 395 ± 4.9% 5% 19% 4% 22% 3% 17% 29%
Lake Research Partners (D)[18][A] May 13–14, 2018 390 ± 5.0% 20% 23% 25% 5% 27%
Public Policy Polling (D)[19][B] April 13–15, 2018 508 ± 4.4 11% 15% 7% 15% 43%
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Endorsements

Deb Haaland
Organizations
Individuals

Debate

More information No., Date ...
2018 New Mexico's 1st congressional district Democratic primary debate
No. Date Host Moderator Link Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
Annie Chavez Pat Davis Dennis Dinge Deb Haaland Damian Lara Antoinette Sedillo Lopez Damon Martinez Paul Moya
1 May. 20, 2018 KOAT-TV
Albuquerque Journal
Doug Fernandez [31] N P N P P P P P
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Pre-primary convention results

Candidates for the Democratic nomination needed to either receive the votes of 20% of the delegates at the convention on March 10, or collect and submit signatures to the secretary of state to have made it to the June 5 primary.

More information Candidate, Percentage of delegates won ...
Candidate Percentage of delegates won Automatically on ballot
Pat Davis 13.55% Red XN
Deb Haaland 34.80% Green tickY
Damian Lara 12.09% Red XN
Damon Martinez 10.81% Red XN
Paul Moya 3.66% Red XN
Antoinette Sedillo-Lopez 25.09% Green tickY
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Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
Democratic primary results[32]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Deb Haaland 25,444 40.6
Democratic Damon Martinez 16,182 25.8
Democratic Antoinette Sedillo Lopez 12,919 20.6
Democratic Paul Moya 3,691 5.9
Democratic Pat Davis (withdrawn) 2,385 3.8
Democratic Damian Lara 2,063 3.3
Total votes 62,687 100.0
Close

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared
Declined

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
Republican primary results[32]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Janice Arnold-Jones 19,316 100.0
Total votes 19,316 100.0
Close

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared
  • Lloyd Princeton, business consultant[34]

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
Libertarian primary results[32]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Lloyd Princeton 244 100.0
Total votes 244 100.0
Close

General election

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[35] Safe D November 5, 2018
Inside Elections[36] Safe D November 5, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[37] Safe D November 5, 2018
RCP[38] Likely D November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[39] Safe D November 5, 2018
538[40] Safe D November 7, 2018
Close

Forum

More information No., Date ...
2018 New Mexico's 1st congressional district candidate forum
No. Date Host Moderator Link Democratic Republican Libertarian
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
Deb Haaland Janice Arnold-Jones Lloyd Princeton
1 Sep. 20, 2018 KENW (TV)
KNME-TV
KRWG-TV
Gene Grant
Lorene Mills
[41] P P P
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Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Deb
Haaland (D)
Janice
Arnold-Jones (R)
Lloyd
Princeton (L)
Undecided
Research & Polling, Inc.[42] October 26 — November 1, 2018 419 ± 4.8% 50% 38% 5% 7%
Carroll Strategies[43] October 29, 2018 452 51% 43% 3% 2%
Emerson College[44] October 24–26, 2018 327 ± 5.7% 51% 41% 6%
Research & Polling, Inc.[45] September 7–13, 2018 410 ± 4.8% 49% 41% 3% 8%
Carroll Strategies[46] June 15–16, 2018 419 47% 43% 4% 6%
Close

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
New Mexico's 1st congressional district, 2018[47]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Deb Haaland 147,336 59.1
Republican Janice Arnold-Jones 90,507 36.3
Libertarian Lloyd Princeton 11,319 4.5
Total votes 249,162 100.0
Democratic hold
Close

District 2

Quick facts Nominee, Party ...
2018 New Mexico's 2nd congressional district election

 2016
2020 
 
Nominee Xochitl Torres Small Yvette Herrell
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 101,489 97,767
Percentage 50.9% 49.1%

Torres Small:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Herrell:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      50%      No votes

U.S. Representative before election

Steve Pearce
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Xochitl Torres Small
Democratic

Close

The 2nd district is very expansive, covering rural Southern New Mexico, including Alamogordo, Las Cruces, and Roswell. Republican Steve Pearce, who had represented the district since 2011 and previously represented the district from 2003 to 2009, was reelected to a fourth consecutive and seventh total term with 63% of the vote in 2016. Pearce did not run for reelection and instead ran unsuccessfully for governor of New Mexico.

New Mexico's 2nd district was one of the 80 Republican-held seats that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee was targeting in 2018.[48] It was successfully picked up by the Democrats.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared
Withdrew
Disqualified
Declined

Forum

More information No., Date ...
2018 New Mexico's 2nd congressional district Democratic candidate forum
No. Date Host Moderator Link Democratic Democratic
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
David Baake Madeline Hildebrandt
1 Dec. 12, 2017 KRWG-TV Fred Martino [64] P P
Close

Pre-primary convention results

Candidates for the Democratic nomination needed to either receive the votes of 20% of the delegates at the convention on March 10, or collect and submit signatures to the secretary of state to have made it to the June 5 primary.

More information Candidate, Percentage of delegates won ...
Candidate Percentage of delegates won Automatically on ballot
Xochitl Torres Small 65.75% Green tickY
Madeline Hildebrandt 34.25% Green tickY
Close

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
Democratic primary results[32]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Xochitl Torres Small 25,395 72.6
Democratic Madeline Hildebrandt 9,577 27.4
Total votes 34,972 100.0
Close

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared
Withdrew

Endorsements

Yvette Herrell
Organizations
  • House Freedom Fund[70]
Monty Newman
Individuals
  • Ted Cruz, U.S. senator from Texas and presidential candidate in 2016[71]

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
Republican primary results[32]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Yvette Herrell 16,023 49.0
Republican Monty Newman 10,474 32.0
Republican Gavin Clarkson 4,060 12.4
Republican Clayburn Griffin 2,143 6.6
Total votes 32,700 100.0
Close

General election

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[35] Tossup November 5, 2018
Inside Elections[36] Tossup November 5, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[37] Lean D (flip) November 5, 2018
RCP[38] Tossup November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[39] Tossup November 5, 2018
538[40] Tossup November 7, 2018
Close

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Yvette
Herrell (R)
Xochitl
Torres Small (D)
Undecided
Research & Polling, Inc.[42] October 26 — November 1, 2018 413 ± 4.8% 46% 45% 9%
Carroll Strategies[43] October 29, 2018 338 47% 42% 11%
Emerson College[44] October 24–26, 2018 278 ± 6.1% 47% 47% 6%
NYT Upshot/Siena College[72] October 19–23, 2018 522 ± 4.6% 45% 44% 11%
The Tarrance Group (R)[73][C] September 30 — October 2, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 49% 45% 6%
NYT Upshot/Siena College[74] September 13–18, 2018 503 ± 4.9% 45% 46% 10%
Research & Polling, Inc.[75] September 7–13, 2018 405 ± 4.9% 48% 41% 11%
Carroll Strategies[46] June 15–16, 2018 334 49% 35% 17%
DCCC Targeting & Analytics (D)[76][D] June 6–11, 2018 456 ± 4.6% 45% 43%
Close

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
New Mexico's 2nd congressional district, 2018[47]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Xochitl Torres Small 101,489 50.9
Republican Yvette Herrell 97,767 49.1
Total votes 199,256 100.0
Democratic gain from Republican
Close

District 3

Quick facts Nominee, Party ...
2018 New Mexico's 3rd congressional district election

 2016
2020 
 
Nominee Ben Ray Luján Jerald McFall Chris Manning
Party Democratic Republican Libertarian
Popular vote 155,201 76,427 13,265
Percentage 63.4% 31.2% 5.4%

Lujan:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
McFall:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      No votes

U.S. Representative before election

Ben Ray Luján
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Ben Ray Luján
Democratic

Close

The 3rd district covers Northern New Mexico, including the capital Santa Fe, as well as Farmington, Las Vegas, and Taos. The district also expands into parts of rural Eastern New Mexico, taking in Clovis and Portales. Democrat Ben Ray Luján, who had represented the district since 2009, was reelected to a fifth term with 62% of the vote in 2016.

New Mexico's 3rd district was one of 36 Democrat-held House districts targeted by the National Republican Congressional Committee in 2018.[3]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
Democratic primary results[32]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Ben Ray Luján (incumbent) 63,909 100.0
Total votes 63,909 100.0
Close

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared
  • Jerald McFall, farmer and former ski instructor[77]

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
Republican primary results[32]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Jerald Steve McFall 20,480 100.0
Total votes 20,480 100.0
Close

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared
  • Christopher Manning, auditor[77]

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
Libertarian primary results[32]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Christopher Manning 201 100.0
Total votes 201 100.0
Close

General election

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[35] Safe D November 5, 2018
Inside Elections[36] Safe D November 5, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[37] Safe D November 5, 2018
RCP[38] Safe D November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[39] Safe D November 5, 2018
538[40] Safe D November 7, 2018
Close

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Ben
Ray Luján (D)
Jerald
McFall (R)
Christopher
Manning (L)
Undecided
Carroll Strategies[43] October 29, 2018 410 57% 33% 4% 6%
Emerson College[44] October 24–26, 2018 331 ± 5.7% 54% 37% 5%
Carroll Strategies[46] June 15–16, 2018 446 58% 30% 5% 7%
Close

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
New Mexico's 3rd congressional district, 2018[47]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Ben Ray Luján (incumbent) 155,201 63.4
Republican Jerald Steve McFall 76,427 31.2
Libertarian Christopher Manning 13,265 5.4
Total votes 244,893 100.0
Democratic hold
Close

References

Notes

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