2018 United States House of Representatives elections in New Mexico
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The 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in New Mexico were held on November 6, 2018, to elect the three U.S. representatives from the state of New Mexico, one from each of the state's three congressional districts. The elections coincided with the gubernatorial election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections.
November 6, 2018
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All 3 New Mexico seats to the United States House of Representatives | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The Democratic party gained the 2nd Congressional seat, gaining unitary control of New Mexico's Congressional (House and Senate) delegation for the first time since 2008 and improving the advantage in the House delegation for New Mexico from 2–1 in favor of Democrats to 3–0.
Overview
Results of the 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in New Mexico by district:[1]
| District | Democratic | Republican | Others | Total | Result | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
| District 1 | 147,336 | 59.13% | 90,507 | 36.33% | 11,319 | 4.54% | 249,162 | 100% | Democratic hold |
| District 2 | 101,489 | 50.93% | 97,767 | 49.07% | n/a | 199,256 | 100% | Democratic gain | |
| District 3 | 148,501 | 60.64% | 76,427 | 31.21% | 13,265 | 5.42% | 244,893 | 100% | Democratic hold |
| Total | 404,026 | 58.27% | 264,701 | 38.18% | 24,584 | 3.55% | 693,311 | 100% | |
District 1
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Haaland: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Jones: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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The 1st district is centered around the Albuquerque metropolitan area. Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham, who had represented the district since 2013, was reelected to a third term with 65% of the vote in 2016. Lujan Grisham did not run for reelection and instead successfully ran for governor of New Mexico.[2]
New Mexico's 1st district was one of 36 Democrat-held House districts targeted by the National Republican Congressional Committee in 2018.[3]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Deb Haaland, former chair of the New Mexico Democratic Party and nominee for lieutenant governor of New Mexico in 2014[4]
- Damian Lara, attorney[5]
- Damon Martinez, former United States Attorney for the District of New Mexico[6]
- Antoinette Sedillo Lopez, former law professor and executive director of Enlace Comunitario, an anti-domestic violence non-profit[7]
Withdrew
- Annie Chavez, Sandia National Laboratories government relations official[8][9]
- Pat Davis, Albuquerque city councilman[10][11] (endorsed Haaland)
- Dennis Dinge, physicist[12][13]
Declined
- Terry Brunner, USDA Rural Development state director and former state director for former U.S. senator Jeff Bingaman[14]
- Jacob Candelaria, state senator[14][15]
- Tanya Giddings, Bernalillo County assessor[14]
- Javier Martinez, state representative[14][15]
- Michael Padilla, state senator[14][16]
- Ken Sanchez, Albuquerque city councilman[15]
- Maggie Hart Stebbins, Bernalillo County commissioner[14][15]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Pat Davis |
Deb Haaland |
Damian Lara |
Damon Martinez |
Paul Moya |
Antoinette Sedillo-Lopez |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albuquerque Journal[17] | May 20–24, 2018 | 395 | ± 4.9% | 5% | 19% | 4% | 22% | 3% | 17% | — | 29% |
| Lake Research Partners (D)[18][A] | May 13–14, 2018 | 390 | ± 5.0% | — | 20% | — | 23% | — | 25% | 5% | 27% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[19][B] | April 13–15, 2018 | 508 | ± 4.4 | 11% | 15% | — | 7% | — | 15% | — | 43% |
Endorsements
- Organizations
- Individuals
- James Clyburn, U.S. representative (D-SC)[22]
- Diane Denish, former lieutenant governor of New Mexico[23]
- Fred Harris, former U.S. Senator and Chair of the National Democratic Party (D-OK)[23]
- Martin Heinrich, U.S. senator (D-NM)[24]
- Pramila Jayapal, U.S. representative (D-WA)[25]
- Ben Ray Lujan, U.S. representative (D-NM)[26]
- Terry McAuliffe, former governor of Virginia[27]
- Gwen Moore, U.S. representative (D-WI)[28]
- Barack Obama, former president of the United States[29]
- Tom Perez, chair of the Democratic National Committee[30]
- Elizabeth Warren, U.S. senator (D-MA)[26]
Debate
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Democratic | Democratic | Democratic | Democratic | Democratic | Democratic | Democratic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
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| Annie Chavez | Pat Davis | Dennis Dinge | Deb Haaland | Damian Lara | Antoinette Sedillo Lopez | Damon Martinez | Paul Moya | |||||
| 1 | May. 20, 2018 | KOAT-TV Albuquerque Journal |
Doug Fernandez | [31] | N | P | N | P | P | P | P | P |
Pre-primary convention results
Candidates for the Democratic nomination needed to either receive the votes of 20% of the delegates at the convention on March 10, or collect and submit signatures to the secretary of state to have made it to the June 5 primary.
| Candidate | Percentage of delegates won | Automatically on ballot |
|---|---|---|
| Pat Davis | 13.55% | |
| Deb Haaland | 34.80% | |
| Damian Lara | 12.09% | |
| Damon Martinez | 10.81% | |
| Paul Moya | 3.66% | |
| Antoinette Sedillo-Lopez | 25.09% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Deb Haaland | 25,444 | 40.6 | |
| Democratic | Damon Martinez | 16,182 | 25.8 | |
| Democratic | Antoinette Sedillo Lopez | 12,919 | 20.6 | |
| Democratic | Paul Moya | 3,691 | 5.9 | |
| Democratic | Pat Davis (withdrawn) | 2,385 | 3.8 | |
| Democratic | Damian Lara | 2,063 | 3.3 | |
| Total votes | 62,687 | 100.0 | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Janice Arnold-Jones, former Albuquerque city councilwoman (2013–2014) and former state representative (2003–2011)[33]
Declined
- Richard Berry, former mayor of Albuquerque (2009–2017)[15]
- Wayne Johnson, Bernalillo County commissioner[14][15]
- John Sanchez, lieutenant governor of New Mexico and nominee for governor of New Mexico in 2002[15]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Janice Arnold-Jones | 19,316 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 19,316 | 100.0 | ||
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Declared
- Lloyd Princeton, business consultant[34]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Lloyd Princeton | 244 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 244 | 100.0 | ||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[35] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
| Inside Elections[36] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[37] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
| RCP[38] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
| Daily Kos[39] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
| 538[40] | Safe D | November 7, 2018 |
Forum
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Republican | Libertarian |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
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| Deb Haaland | Janice Arnold-Jones | Lloyd Princeton | |||||
| 1 | Sep. 20, 2018 | KENW (TV) KNME-TV KRWG-TV |
Gene Grant Lorene Mills |
[41] | P | P | P |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Deb Haaland (D) |
Janice Arnold-Jones (R) |
Lloyd Princeton (L) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling, Inc.[42] | October 26 — November 1, 2018 | 419 | ± 4.8% | 50% | 38% | 5% | 7% |
| Carroll Strategies[43] | October 29, 2018 | 452 | — | 51% | 43% | 3% | 2% |
| Emerson College[44] | October 24–26, 2018 | 327 | ± 5.7% | 51% | 41% | — | 6% |
| Research & Polling, Inc.[45] | September 7–13, 2018 | 410 | ± 4.8% | 49% | 41% | 3% | 8% |
| Carroll Strategies[46] | June 15–16, 2018 | 419 | — | 47% | 43% | 4% | 6% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Deb Haaland | 147,336 | 59.1 | |
| Republican | Janice Arnold-Jones | 90,507 | 36.3 | |
| Libertarian | Lloyd Princeton | 11,319 | 4.5 | |
| Total votes | 249,162 | 100.0 | ||
| Democratic hold | ||||
District 2
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Torres Small: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Herrell: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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The 2nd district is very expansive, covering rural Southern New Mexico, including Alamogordo, Las Cruces, and Roswell. Republican Steve Pearce, who had represented the district since 2011 and previously represented the district from 2003 to 2009, was reelected to a fourth consecutive and seventh total term with 63% of the vote in 2016. Pearce did not run for reelection and instead ran unsuccessfully for governor of New Mexico.
New Mexico's 2nd district was one of the 80 Republican-held seats that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee was targeting in 2018.[48] It was successfully picked up by the Democrats.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Madeline Hildebrandt, U.S. Army veteran and history professor[49]
- Xochitl Torres Small, water rights attorney[50]
Withdrew
Disqualified
Declined
- Joe Cervantes, state senator (running for governor)[61][62]
- Howie Morales, state senator and candidate for governor of New Mexico in 2014 (running for lieutenant governor)[63]
Forum
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Democratic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
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| David Baake | Madeline Hildebrandt | |||||
| 1 | Dec. 12, 2017 | KRWG-TV | Fred Martino | [64] | P | P |
Pre-primary convention results
Candidates for the Democratic nomination needed to either receive the votes of 20% of the delegates at the convention on March 10, or collect and submit signatures to the secretary of state to have made it to the June 5 primary.
| Candidate | Percentage of delegates won | Automatically on ballot |
|---|---|---|
| Xochitl Torres Small | 65.75% | |
| Madeline Hildebrandt | 34.25% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Xochitl Torres Small | 25,395 | 72.6 | |
| Democratic | Madeline Hildebrandt | 9,577 | 27.4 | |
| Total votes | 34,972 | 100.0 | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Gavin Clarkson, former professor at New Mexico State University[65]
- Clayburn Griffin, former staffer for Gary Johnson's 2012 and 2016 presidential campaigns[66]
- Yvette Herrell, state representative[67]
- Monty Newman, former mayor of Hobbs and former chair of the Republican Party of New Mexico[68]
Withdrew
- Aubrey Dunn, New Mexico Commissioner of Public Lands (running for U.S. Senate as a Libertarian)[69][56]
Endorsements
- Organizations
- House Freedom Fund[70]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Yvette Herrell | 16,023 | 49.0 | |
| Republican | Monty Newman | 10,474 | 32.0 | |
| Republican | Gavin Clarkson | 4,060 | 12.4 | |
| Republican | Clayburn Griffin | 2,143 | 6.6 | |
| Total votes | 32,700 | 100.0 | ||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[35] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
| Inside Elections[36] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[37] | Lean D (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
| RCP[38] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
| Daily Kos[39] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
| 538[40] | Tossup | November 7, 2018 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Yvette Herrell (R) |
Xochitl Torres Small (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling, Inc.[42] | October 26 — November 1, 2018 | 413 | ± 4.8% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| Carroll Strategies[43] | October 29, 2018 | 338 | — | 47% | 42% | 11% |
| Emerson College[44] | October 24–26, 2018 | 278 | ± 6.1% | 47% | 47% | 6% |
| NYT Upshot/Siena College[72] | October 19–23, 2018 | 522 | ± 4.6% | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| The Tarrance Group (R)[73][C] | September 30 — October 2, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 49% | 45% | 6% |
| NYT Upshot/Siena College[74] | September 13–18, 2018 | 503 | ± 4.9% | 45% | 46% | 10% |
| Research & Polling, Inc.[75] | September 7–13, 2018 | 405 | ± 4.9% | 48% | 41% | 11% |
| Carroll Strategies[46] | June 15–16, 2018 | 334 | — | 49% | 35% | 17% |
| DCCC Targeting & Analytics (D)[76][D] | June 6–11, 2018 | 456 | ± 4.6% | 45% | 43% | — |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Xochitl Torres Small | 101,489 | 50.9 | |
| Republican | Yvette Herrell | 97,767 | 49.1 | |
| Total votes | 199,256 | 100.0 | ||
| Democratic gain from Republican | ||||
District 3
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Lujan: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% McFall: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||||||
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The 3rd district covers Northern New Mexico, including the capital Santa Fe, as well as Farmington, Las Vegas, and Taos. The district also expands into parts of rural Eastern New Mexico, taking in Clovis and Portales. Democrat Ben Ray Luján, who had represented the district since 2009, was reelected to a fifth term with 62% of the vote in 2016.
New Mexico's 3rd district was one of 36 Democrat-held House districts targeted by the National Republican Congressional Committee in 2018.[3]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Ben Ray Luján, incumbent U.S. Representative
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Ben Ray Luján (incumbent) | 63,909 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 63,909 | 100.0 | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Jerald McFall, farmer and former ski instructor[77]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jerald Steve McFall | 20,480 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 20,480 | 100.0 | ||
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Declared
- Christopher Manning, auditor[77]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Christopher Manning | 201 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 201 | 100.0 | ||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[35] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
| Inside Elections[36] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[37] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
| RCP[38] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
| Daily Kos[39] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
| 538[40] | Safe D | November 7, 2018 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ben Ray Luján (D) |
Jerald McFall (R) |
Christopher Manning (L) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carroll Strategies[43] | October 29, 2018 | 410 | — | 57% | 33% | 4% | 6% |
| Emerson College[44] | October 24–26, 2018 | 331 | ± 5.7% | 54% | 37% | — | 5% |
| Carroll Strategies[46] | June 15–16, 2018 | 446 | — | 58% | 30% | 5% | 7% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Ben Ray Luján (incumbent) | 155,201 | 63.4 | |
| Republican | Jerald Steve McFall | 76,427 | 31.2 | |
| Libertarian | Christopher Manning | 13,265 | 5.4 | |
| Total votes | 244,893 | 100.0 | ||
| Democratic hold | ||||