2024 United States Senate election in Nevada
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The 2024 United States Senate election in Nevada was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Nevada. Incumbent Democratic Senator Jacky Rosen narrowly won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican nominee Sam Brown.[1] Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump carried Nevada on the same ballot. Primary elections took place on June 11, 2024.[2]
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November 5, 2024
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   Rosen: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Brown: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Democratic senator Jacky Rosen was running for reelection to a second term in office, facing a strong challenge from Republican author and U.S. Army veteran Sam Brown. Brown was endorsed by Donald Trump, who was running for the presidency up the ballot. Given Nevada's status as a crucial swing state at the federal level, a competitive race was anticipated; although, Rosen led most all of preelection polling, and almost all major news organizations and firms predicted that she was likely to win, albeit by varying levels of confidence.
Come Election Day, Rosen was reelected by a narrow margin of around 1.7%, an advantage of around 24,000 votes among over 1.46 million cast statewide. This result reflected a somewhat more competitive result than expected, according to final polling averages, and was down from her 2018 margin of around 5 points against then-incumbent Republican senator Dean Heller. Rosen received 47.9% of the statewide vote to Brown's 46.2%. Rosen's victory came on the same ballot in which Democrat Kamala Harris lost the state of Nevada in the concurrent presidential election by 3.1%, becoming the first Democrat to do so since 2004.
To compare to the presidential race, Rosen ultimately overperformed Harris by around 4.8 percentage points. Rosen carried two of Nevada's seventeen counties – Clark County, home to Las Vegas and its suburbs, and Washoe County, home to Reno and its suburbs – which is somewhat of a traditional result in the state, as Harris did the same in the presidential election; however, their margins differed notably. Rosen carried Clark and Washoe counties by margins of 7.3% and 5.8% respectively, while Harris only carried them by 2.6% and 1.0% respectively. Rosen received around 4,000 less raw votes than Harris, while Brown received over 74,000 less raw votes than Trump.
Background
A typical swing state, Nevada is considered to be a purple state at the federal level, especially since in the 2016 United States presidential election, when Hillary Clinton carried Nevada by about two percentage points. Both parties have seen success in the state in recent years. Democrats control both U.S. Senate seats, majorities in both state legislative chambers, and all but one seat in its congressional delegation, while Republicans flipped the governorship and lieutenant governorship in 2022.[3][4][5]
As of 2024, no Republican has won any U.S. Senate race in Nevada since 2012. This race was considered to be highly competitive given the state's nearly even partisan lean; however, most polls and ratings showed Rosen to be the favorite to win.[6]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Jacky Rosen, incumbent U.S. senator[7]
Eliminated in primary
- Mike Schaefer, member of the California State Board of Equalization from the 4th district (2019–present) and perennial candidate[8]
- Troy Zakari Walker, business consultant[9]
Endorsements
Jacky Rosen
U.S representatives
- Gabby Giffords, U.S. representative from Arizona's 8th congressional district (2007–2012)[10]
Statewide officials
- Andy Beshear, Governor of Kentucky (2019–present)[11]
- Gretchen Whitmer, Governor of Michigan (2019-present)[12]
Individuals
- Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez, labor organizer and president of NextGen America PAC (2021–present)[13]
Labor unions
- AFSCME Nevada[14]
- Culinary Workers Union[15]
- LiUNA Local 872[16]
- National Education Association[17]
- Nevada AFL-CIO[18]
Organizations
- 314 Action[19]
- American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC)[20]
- Bend the Arc[21]
- CHC BOLD PAC[22]
- Democratic Majority for Israel[23]
- EMILY's List[24]
- End Citizens United[25]
- Feminist Majority PAC[26]
- Giffords[10]
- Human Rights Campaign[27]
- Humane Society Legislative Fund[28]
- Jewish Democratic Council of America[29]
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs[30]
- League of Conservation Voters[31]
- National Organization for Women PAC[32]
- National Women's Political Caucus[33]
- Natural Resources Defense Council[34]
- NextGen America PAC[13]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[35]
- Population Connection Action Fund[36]
- Reproductive Freedom for All[37]
- Sierra Club[38]
- Silver State Equality[39]
- Swing Left[40]
Newspapers
- Las Vegas Sun (Democratic primary only)[41]
- Las Vegas Weekly (Democratic primary only)[42]
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of May 22, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Jacky Rosen (D) | $27,387,983 | $17,316,743 | $10,249,429 |
| Troy Walker (D) | $705 | $675 | $0 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[43] | |||
Results
Rosen
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- >90%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jacky Rosen (incumbent) | 144,090 | 91.51% | |
| Democratic | Troy Zakari Walker | 5,899 | 3.75% | |
| Democratic | None of These Candidates | 3,951 | 2.51% | |
| Democratic | Mike Schaefer | 3,521 | 2.24% | |
| Total votes | 157,461 | 100.0% | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Sam Brown, medical support company founder, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022, and candidate for Texas's 102nd House of Representatives district in 2014[45]
Eliminated in primary
- William Conrad, former Modesto, California city councilor and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[46]
- Tony Grady Jr., Reno Air Races director of flight operations and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2022[47]
- Jeffrey Ross Gunter, former U.S. Ambassador to Iceland (2019–2021)[48]
- Edward Hamilton, businessman and perennial candidate[9]
- Ronda Kennedy, civil rights attorney and perennial candidate[49]
- Barry Lindemann, real estate developer and independent candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[50]
- Garn Mabey, former Minority Leader of the Nevada Assembly (2007) for the 2nd district (2003–2009) and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2010[9]
- Jim Marchant, former state assemblyman for the 37th district (2016–2018), founder of the America First Secretary of State Coalition, nominee for Secretary of State in 2022, and nominee for Nevada's 4th congressional district in 2020[51]
- Gary Marinch, real estate investor and perennial candidate[9]
- Stephanie Phillips, real estate broker[49]
- Vincent Rego, delivery driver[9]
Declined
- Mark Amodei, U.S. representative for Nevada's 2nd congressional district (2011–present) (ran for re-election)[52]
- April Becker, attorney and nominee for Nevada's 3rd congressional district in 2022[53] (ran for Clark County Commission)[54]
- Heidi Gansert, Minority Leader of the Nevada Senate[53][55]
- Adam Laxalt, former Nevada Attorney General (2015–2019), grandson of former U.S. Senator Paul Laxalt, nominee for U.S. Senate in 2022, and nominee for governor in 2018[53]
- Brian Sandoval, president of University of Nevada, Reno (2020–present) and former governor of Nevada (2011–2019)[53]
Endorsements
Sam Brown
Executive Branch officials
- George W. Bush, 43rd President of the United States (2001-2009)[56]
- Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021)[57]
U.S. senators
- Marsha Blackburn, U.S. senator from Tennessee (2019–present)[58]
- Tom Cotton, U.S. senator from Arkansas (2015–present)[59]
- Steve Daines, U.S. senator from Montana (2015–present)[60]
- Markwayne Mullin, U.S. senator from Oklahoma (2023–present)[61]
- John Thune, U.S. senator from South Dakota (2005–present)[59]
Statewide officials
- Joe Lombardo, Governor of Nevada (2023–present)[62]
Organizations
Jeffrey Ross Gunter
U.S. representatives
- Matt Gaetz, U.S. Representative for FL-1 (2017–2024)[66]
- Lee Zeldin, former U.S. representative for NY-1 (2015–2023)[67]
Jim Marchant
Executive branch officials
- Michael Flynn, former U.S. National Security Advisor (2017) and former Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency (2012–2014)[68]
U.S. representatives
- Paul Gosar, U.S. representative for AZ-9 (2011–present)[69]
Individuals
- Dick Morris, commentator and former advisor to President Bill Clinton[69]
- Wayne Allyn Root, conservative TV host and conspiracy theorist[69]
Garn Mabey
Newspapers
- Las Vegas Sun (Republican primary only)[41]
- Las Vegas Weekly (Republican primary only)[42]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Sam Brown |
Tony Grady |
Jeff Gunter |
Jim Marchant |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Predictive Insights[70] | June 4–5, 2024 | 424 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 50% | 4% | 15% | 8% | 12%[b] | 12% |
| Kaplan Strategies[71][A] | May 30, 2024 | 802 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 30% | 4% | 31% | 7% | 1%[c] | 27% |
| Tarrance Group (R)[72][B] | May 13–16, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 52% | – | 14% | 7% | – | 27% |
| Tarrance Group (R)[73][B] | April 7–10, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 58% | 3% | 3% | 6% | – | 29% |
| Noble Predictive Insights[74] | February 27 – March 5, 2024 | 296 (RV) | ± 5.7% | 39% | – | – | 26% | – | 35% |
| Tarrance Group (R)[75][B] | October 23–26, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 24% | 5% | 1% | 9% | – | 41% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[76][C] | August 15–17, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 33% | 2% | 1% | 15% | 3%[d] | 44% |
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of May 22, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Sam Brown (R) | $7,084,690 | $4,605,289 | $2,479,400 |
| William Conrad (R) | $12,476[e] | $7,098 | $9,161 |
| Tony Grady Jr. (R) | $278,061 | $255,593 | $22,467 |
| Jeffrey Ross Gunter (R) | $3,317,546[f] | $2,980,286 | $337,260 |
| Ronda Kennedy (R) | $27,786[g] | $18,620 | $9,165 |
| Barry Lindemann (R) | $64,106 | $63,947 | $2,783 |
| Jim Marchant (R) | $434,323 | $374,665 | $59,657 |
| Stephanie Phillips (R) | $82,761 | $81,427 | $1,333 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[43] | |||
Results
Brown
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Sam Brown | 103,102 | 60.17% | |
| Republican | Jeffrey Ross Gunter | 24,987 | 14.58% | |
| Republican | Jim Marchant | 11,190 | 6.53% | |
| Republican | Tony Grady Jr. | 9,565 | 5.58% | |
| Republican | None of These Candidates | 7,164 | 4.18% | |
| Republican | William Conrad | 6,038 | 3.52% | |
| Republican | Stephanie Phillips | 3,828 | 2.23% | |
| Republican | Garn Mabey | 1,818 | 1.06% | |
| Republican | Ronda Kennedy | 1,786 | 1.04% | |
| Republican | Barry Lindemann | 852 | 0.50% | |
| Republican | Edward Hamilton | 478 | 0.28% | |
| Republican | Vincent Rego | 311 | 0.18% | |
| Republican | Gary Marinch | 231 | 0.13% | |
| Total votes | 171,350 | 100.0% | ||
Third-party and independent candidates
Declared
- Chris Cunningham (Libertarian), ecommerce consultant and esports commentator[9]
- Joseph Destin (Independent), truck driver and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[9]
- Janine Hansen (Independent American), former Constitution Party national treasurer and perennial candidate[9]
- Chris Mazlo (Independent)[9]
- Allen Rheinhart (Independent), artist and perennial candidate[9]
- Ed Uehling (Independent), real estate investor and perennial candidate[9]
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of May 22, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Chris Cunningham (L) | $800 | $16 | $809 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[43] | |||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[77] | Lean D | August 15, 2024 |
| Inside Elections[78] | Lean D | October 18, 2024 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[79] | Lean D | November 9, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[80] | Lean D | October 3, 2024 |
| Elections Daily[81] | Likely D | October 9, 2024 |
| CNalysis[82] | Lean D | November 4, 2024 |
| RealClearPolitics[83] | Tossup | October 18, 2024 |
| Split Ticket[84] | Likely D | October 23, 2024 |
| 538[85] | Likely D | October 23, 2024 |
Post-primary endorsements
Jacky Rosen (D)
U.S. Representatives
- Adam Schiff, U.S. Representative from California's 30th congressional district (2001–2024)[86]
Individuals
- Bryan Cranston, actor[86]
- Harry Dunn, former U.S. Capitol Police officer[87]
Labor unions
Newspapers
Sam Brown (R)
Individuals
- Ben Shapiro, podcaster[90]
Debates
| No. | Date | Host | Moderators | Link | Democratic | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
||||||
| Rosen | Brown | |||||
| 1 | October 17, 2024 | KLAS-TV | YouTube | P | P | |
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Jacky Rosen (D) | $46,500,385 | $44,212,365 | $2,466,209 |
| Sam Brown (R) | $20,000,962 | $17,751,273 | $2,249,688 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[43] | |||
Polling
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Jacky Rosen (D) |
Sam Brown (R) |
Undecided [h] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FiveThirtyEight[91] | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 49.2% | 43.4% | 7.4% | Rosen +5.8% |
| RealClearPolitics[92] | October 24 – November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 48.8% | 43.9% | 7.3% | Rosen +4.9% |
| 270toWin[93] | October 22 – November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 48.7% | 44.2% | 7.1% | Rosen +4.5% |
| TheHill/DDHQ[94] | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 48.6% | 44.7% | 6.7% | Rosen +3.9% |
| Average | 48.8% | 44.1% | 7.1% | Rosen+4.7% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Jacky Rosen (D) |
Sam Brown (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel[95] | November 3–4, 2024 | 707 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 43% | 4%[i] | 5% |
| Patriot Polling (R)[96] | November 1–3, 2024 | 792 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 48% | – | – |
| AtlasIntel[97] | November 1–2, 2024 | 782 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 46% | 5%[j] | 4% |
| Emerson College[98][D] | October 30 – November 2, 2024 | 840 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 50% | 44% | 3%[k] | 3% |
| New York Times/Siena College[99] | October 24 – November 2, 2024 | 1,010 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 52% | 43% | – | 5% |
| 1,010 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 52% | 40% | – | 8% | ||
| AtlasIntel[100] | October 30–31, 2024 | 845 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 45% | 5%[j] | 3% |
| Emerson College[101][E] | October 29–31, 2024 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 49% | 45% | 2%[l] | 4% |
| Noble Predictive Insights[102] | October 28–31, 2024 | 593 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 46% | 5%[m] | 2% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[103] | October 28–31, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 46% | 47% | 5%[n] | 2% |
| YouGov[104][F] | October 25–31, 2024 | 753 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 51% | 44% | – | 5% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[105][G] | October 25–30, 2024 | 767 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 41% | 3%[o] | 6% |
| Data for Progress (D)[106] | October 25–30, 2024 | 721 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 42% | 4%[p] | 4% |
| AtlasIntel[107] | October 25–29, 2024 | 1,083 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 44% | 4%[i] | 3% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[108] | October 25–28, 2024 | 1,082 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 45% | 3%[q] | 6% |
| CNN/SRSS[109] | October 21–26, 2024 | 683 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 50% | 41% | 8%[r] | 1% |
| OnMessage Inc. (R)[110][H] | October 19–22, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 48% | 2%[s] | 3% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[111] | October 19–20, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 44% | 4%[t] | 4% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[112][I] | October 16–18, 2024 | 529 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 48% | 41% | 4%[u] | 6% |
| AtlasIntel[113] | October 12–17, 2024 | 1,171 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 43% | 3%[v] | 6% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D)[114][J] |
October 8–15, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 44% | 4%[w] | 3% |
| Morning Consult[115] | October 6–15, 2024 | 496 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 37% | – | 6% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[116][I] | October 12–14, 2024 | 838 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 41% | 5%[x] | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[117][G] | October 9–14, 2024 | 748 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 44% | – | 9% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[118] | October 10–13, 2024 | 1,088 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 43% | 3%[q] | 6% |
| Emerson College[119][K] | October 5–8, 2024 | 900 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 50% | 42% | 3%[y] | 5% |
| RMG Research[120][L] | September 30 – October 3, 2024 | 782 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 53% | 37% | 3%[z] | 7% |
| 56%[aa] | 40% | 1%[ab] | 4% | ||||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[121][I] | September 27 – October 2, 2024 | 514 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 41% | 5%[ac] | 7% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[122] | September 29–30, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 42% | 2%[ad] | 7% |
| AtlasIntel[123] | September 20–25, 2024 | 858 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 46% | 3%[ae] | 3% |
| BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[124][M] | September 19–25, 2024 | 409 (LV) | – | 52% | 38% | 4%[af] | 6% |
| 53% | 40% | – | 7% | ||||
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[125][G] | September 19–22, 2024 | 738 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 40% | 4%[ag] | 7% |
| Remington Research Group (R)[126][N] | September 16–20, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 41% | – | 12% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[127][I] | September 16–19, 2024 | 652 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 38% | 4%[ah] | 11% |
| The Tarrance Group (R)[128] | September 16–19, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 48% | 41% | 4%[ai] | 6% |
| Emerson College[129][K] | September 15–18, 2024 | 895 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 48% | 41% | 3%[y] | 9% |
| Morning Consult[115] | September 9–18, 2024 | 474 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 52% | 39% | – | 9% |
| Noble Predictive Insights[130] | September 9–16, 2024 | 692 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 53% | 38% | – | 9% |
| 50% | 36% | 6%[aj] | 7% | ||||
| 812 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 52% | 34% | – | 15% | ||
| 49% | 33% | 8%[ak] | 10% | ||||
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[131] | September 11–13, 2024 | 1,079 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 40% | 7%[al] | 4% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[132][I] | September 6–9, 2024 | 698 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 47% | 39% | 5%[am] | 9% |
| Morning Consult[115] | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 516 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 40% | – | 10% |
| YouGov[133][F] | August 23 – September 3, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 51% | 39% | – | 10% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[134] | August 29–31, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 39% | 2%[ad] | 10% |
| CNN/SRSS[135] | August 23–29, 2024 | 626 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 50% | 40% | 9%[an] | 1% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[136][I] | August 25–28, 2024 | 490 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 43% | 39% | 4%[ao] | 14% |
| Emerson College[137][K] | August 25–28, 2024 | 1,168 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 50% | 40% | 4%[w] | 6% |
| Fox News[138] | August 23–26, 2024 | 1,026 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 55% | 41% | 3%[ap] | 1% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[139][I] | August 12–15, 2024 | 536 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 41% | 37% | 5%[aq] | 19% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[140][O] | August 13–18, 2024 | 980 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 39% | 5%[ar] | 6% |
| New York Times/Siena College[141] | August 12–15, 2024 | 677 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 48% | 37% | – | 15% |
| 677 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 40% | – | 11% | ||
| Strategies 360[142] | August 7–14, 2024 | 350 (RV) | ± 5.2% | 50% | 38% | 5%[as] | 6% |
| Providence Polling[143] | August 3–5, 2024 | 991 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 40% | 9%[at] | – |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[144][I] | July 31 – August 3, 2024 | 470 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 41% | 38% | 3%[au] | 19% |
| BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[145][M] | July 26 – August 2, 2024 | 403 (LV) | – | 54% | 36% | – | 10% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[146][I] | July 22–24, 2024 | 435 (LV) | ± 4.14% | 45% | 40% | 3%[au] | 10% |
| Joe Biden withdraws from the presidential election | |||||||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[147][I] | July 16–18, 2024 | 412 (LV) | – | 41% | 37% | 4% [av] | 16% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[148][P] | July 5–12, 2024 | 761 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 42% | 6%[aw] | 7% |
| YouGov[149][F] | July 4–12, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 47% | 40% | 1%[ax] | 11% |
| 731 (LV) | – | 47% | 41% | 1%[ax] | 10% | ||
| Remington Research Group (R)[150][N] | June 29 – July 1, 2024 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 46% | – | 6% |
| National Public Affairs[151] | June 28 – July 1, 2024 | 817 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 41% | 33% | 8%[ay] | 18% |
| Emerson College[152][K] | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 38% | – | 13% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D)[153][J] |
June 12–18, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 42% | – | 11% |
| Primary elections held | |||||||
| The Tyson Group (R)[154][Q] | May 22–25, 2024 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 33% | 4%[az] | 16% |
| Mainstreet Research/FAU[155] | May 19–21, 2024 | 522 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 48% | 35% | 8%[ba] | 9% |
| 494 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 48% | 37% | 7%[bb] | 8% | ||
| New York Times/Siena College[156] | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 614 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 38% | – | 22% |
| 614 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 41% | – | 18% | ||
| Emerson College[157][K] | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 37% | – | 18% |
| Emerson College[158] | March 12–15, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 39% | – | 21% |
| Noble Predictive Insights[74] | February 27 – March 5, 2024 | 829 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 41% | 35% | – | 24% |
| Emerson College[159] | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 38% | – | 22% |
| Change Research (D)[160] | December 3–7, 2023 | 2,532 (V) | – | 39% | 38% | 0% | 23% |
| Tarrance Group (R)[75][B] | October 23–26, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 45% | 40% | 5% | 10% |
Hypothetical polling
Jacky Rosen vs. Jim Marchant
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Jacky Rosen (D) |
Jim Marchant (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[158] | March 12–15, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 34% | – | 22% |
| Noble Predictive Insights[74] | February 27 – March 5, 2024 | 829 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 43% | 34% | – | 23% |
| Emerson College[159] | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 36% | – | 22% |
Jacky Rosen vs. Jeff Gunter
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Jacky Rosen (D) |
Jeff Gunter (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[157][K] | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 33% | – | 21% |
| Emerson College[158] | March 12–15, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 34% | – | 23% |
| Emerson College[159] | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 32% | – | 25% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jacky Rosen (incumbent) | 701,105 | 47.87% | −2.54% | |
| Republican | Sam Brown | 677,046 | 46.22% | +0.84% | |
| None of These Candidates | 44,380 | 3.03% | +1.46% | ||
| Independent American | Janine Hansen | 21,316 | 1.46% | +0.73% | |
| Libertarian | Chris Cunningham | 20,881 | 1.43% | +0.48% | |
| Total votes | 1,464,728 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
By county
| County[161] | Jacky Rosen Democratic |
Sam Brown Republican |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Carson City | 13,454 | 43.68% | 15,389 | 49.97% | 1,956 | 6.35% | −1,935 | −6.28% | 30,799 |
| Churchill | 3,278 | 24.45% | 9,179 | 68.47% | 949 | 7.08% | −5,901 | −44.02% | 13,406 |
| Clark | 514,662 | 50.71% | 441,057 | 43.46% | 59,118 | 5.83% | 73,605 | 7.25% | 1,014,837 |
| Douglas | 11,675 | 33.12% | 22,125 | 62.76% | 1,455 | 4.13% | −10,450 | −29.64% | 35,255 |
| Elko | 4,439 | 19.96% | 15,850 | 71.25% | 1,956 | 8.79% | −11,411 | −51.30% | 22,245 |
| Esmeralda | 72 | 15.72% | 345 | 75.33% | 41 | 8.95% | −273 | −59.61% | 458 |
| Eureka | 107 | 10.49% | 825 | 80.88% | 88 | 8.63% | −718 | −70.39% | 1,020 |
| Humboldt | 1,838 | 23.07% | 5,500 | 69.03% | 630 | 7.91% | −3,662 | −45.96% | 7,968 |
| Lander | 538 | 19.85% | 1,924 | 70.97% | 249 | 9.18% | −1,386 | −51.13% | 2,711 |
| Lincoln | 353 | 14.38% | 1,959 | 79.83% | 142 | 5.79% | −1,606 | −65.44% | 2,454 |
| Lyon | 9,182 | 27.58% | 21,892 | 65.77% | 2,213 | 6.65% | −12,710 | −38.18% | 33,287 |
| Mineral | 737 | 32.23% | 1,326 | 57.98% | 224 | 9.79% | −589 | −25.75% | 2,287 |
| Nye | 7,645 | 28.48% | 17,220 | 64.15% | 1,978 | 7.37% | −9,575 | −35.67% | 26,843 |
| Pershing | 519 | 22.65% | 1,618 | 70.62% | 154 | 6.72% | −1,099 | −47.97% | 2,291 |
| Storey | 919 | 30.05% | 1,964 | 64.22% | 175 | 5.72% | −1,045 | −34.17% | 3,058 |
| Washoe | 130,841 | 50.04% | 115,713 | 44.25% | 14,921 | 5.71% | 15,128 | 5.79% | 261,475 |
| White Pine | 846 | 19.52% | 3,160 | 72.91% | 328 | 7.57% | −2,314 | −53.39% | 4,334 |
| Totals | 701,105 | 47.87% | 677,046 | 46.22% | 86,577 | 5.91% | 24,059 | 1.64% | 1,464,728 |
By congressional district
Rosen won three of four congressional districts.[162]
| District | Rosen | Brown | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 50% | 43% | Dina Titus |
| 2nd | 43% | 51% | Mark Amodei |
| 3rd | 49% | 45% | Susie Lee |
| 4th | 50% | 43% | Steven Horsford |
See also
Notes
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - "Another candidate not listed" with 7%; "Refused/Would not vote" with 5%
- Bill Conrad with 1%; Ronda Kennedy with 0%
- Bill Conrad, Ronda Kennedy, and Barry Lindemann with 1%
- $2,100 of this total was self-funded by Conrad
- $2,725,000 of this total was self-funded by Gunter
- $21,600 of this total was self-funded by Kennedy
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 3%; "Other" with 1%
- "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 4%; "Other" with 1%
- "None of these candidate" with 3%
- "None of these candidates" with 2%
- "None of these candidates" with 2%; Cunningham (L) and Hansen (IA) with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
- "Refuse" with 4%; "Other" with 1%
- "Other" with 3%
- Hansen (IA) with 2%; "None of these candidates" with 2%
- "Other" with 3%
- "Other" with 7%; "Neither" with 1%
- Cunningham (L) and Hansen (IA) with 1%
- "Another candidate" with 4%
- "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%; Cunningham (L) and Hansen (IA) with 1%
- "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 2%; "Other" with 1%
- "None of these Candidates" with 4%
- "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%; Cunningham (L) and Hansen (IA) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
- "None of these candidates" with 3%
- "Someone else" with 2%; "Would not vote" with 1%
- With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- "Would not vote" with 1%
- "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%; Cunningham (L) with 1%; Hansen (IA) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
- "Another candidate" with 2%
- "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 3%; "Other" with <1%
- "Someone else" with 2%; "Would not vote" with 2%
- "Other" with 4%
- Hansen (IA), "Wouldn't vote if these are the candidates", Cunningham (L), and "Other" with 1%
- "None of the above" with 3%; "Others" with 1%
- "Wouldn't vote for these candidates" with 3%; Cunningham (L) with 2%; Hansen (IA) with 1%
- "Wouldn't vote for these candidates" with 5%; Cunningham (L) with 2%; Hansen (IA) with 1%
- "Other" with 7%
- Hansen (IA) and "Wouldn't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%; Cunningham (L) with 1%
- "Other" with 7%; "Neither" with 2%
- Hansen (IA) with 2%; Cunningham (L) with 1%; "Wouldn't vote if these are the candidates" with 1%
- "Other" with 2%; "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
- Janine Hansen (IA) and Chris Cunningham (L) with 2%; "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 1%
- "Someone else" with 5%
- Chris Cunningham (L) with 3%; "None of These Candidates" with 2%
- "None of These Candidates" with 6%; "Other Candidates" with 3%
- Janine Hansen (IA) with 2%; Chris Cunningham (L) with 1%
- Chris Cunningham (L) and Janine Hansen (IA) with 2%
- "Other" with 6%
- "Other" with 1%
- "None of these candidates" with 8%
- Chris Cunningham (L) with 4%
- "Another candidate" with 8%
- "Another candidate" with 7%
Partisan clients
- Poll sponsored by Gunter's campaign
- Poll sponsored by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which supports Brown
- Poll sponsored by Duty First Super PAC, which supports Brown
- Poll sponsored by Nexstar Media
- Poll sponsored by RealClearWorld
- Poll sponsored by The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
- Poll sponsored by American Thinker
- Poll sponsored by Senate Opportunity Fund, a super PAC that primarily supports Republican candidates in U.S. Senate races
- Poll sponsored by The Daily Telegraph
- Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
- Poll sponsored by The Cook Political Report
- Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republicans.
- Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA
- Poll sponsored by The Heartland Institute
- Poll sponsored by Breaking Battlegrounds