2018 United States Senate special election in Minnesota
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The 2018 United States Senate special election in Minnesota took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a United States senator from Minnesota to replace incumbent Democratic senator Al Franken until the regular expiration of the term on January 3, 2021. Facing multiple accusations of sexual misconduct, Franken announced on December 7, 2017, that he would resign effective January 2, 2018. Governor Mark Dayton appointed Franken's successor, Tina Smith, on December 13, 2017, and she ran in the special election. This election coincided with a regularly scheduled U.S. Senate election for the Class 1 Senate seat, U.S. House elections, a gubernatorial election, State House elections, and other elections.
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November 6, 2018
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| Turnout | 63.66% | ||||||||||||||||
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Smith: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Housley: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% | |||||||||||||||||
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The candidate filing deadline was June 5, 2018, and the primary election was held on August 14, 2018.[1] Smith won the Democratic primary and defeated Republican nominee Karin Housley in the general election.
DFL primary
Candidates
Nominated
- Tina Smith, incumbent U.S. senator[2]
Eliminated in primary
- Ali Chehem[3]
- Gregg A. Iverson, perennial candidate[3]
- Nick Leonard, attorney and activist[4]
- Richard Painter, University of Minnesota Law School professor and former White House ethics lawyer under President George W. Bush[5]
- Christopher Lovell Seymore Sr.[3]
Declined
- Scott Dibble, state senator[6]
- Keith Ellison, U.S. representative from Minnesota's 5th congressional district (ran for attorney general)[7]
- Melisa Franzen, state senator[6][8]
- Betty McCollum, U.S. representative from Minnesota's 4th congressional district (ran for re-election)[9]
- Rick Nolan, U.S. representative from Minnesota's 8th congressional district (ran for lieutenant governor)[9]
- Collin Peterson, U.S. representative from Minnesota's 7th congressional district (ran for re-election)[9]
- Jake Sullivan, former National Security Adviser to Vice President Joe Biden[10]
- Lori Swanson, attorney general of Minnesota[10] (ran for governor)
- Patricia Torres Ray, state senator[6] (ran for U.S. House)
- Tim Walz, U.S. representative from Minnesota's 1st congressional district (ran for governor)[9]
Endorsements
Richard Painter
Local and state politicians
- Arne Carlson, former governor of Minnesota (Republican)[11]
Individuals
- Rosie O'Donnell, comedian and actress[12]
Results
Smith
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
Smith
- 70–80%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic (DFL) | Tina Smith (incumbent) | 433,705 | 76.06% | |
| Democratic (DFL) | Richard Painter | 78,193 | 13.71% | |
| Democratic (DFL) | Ali Chehem Ali | 18,897 | 3.31% | |
| Democratic (DFL) | Gregg Iverson | 17,825 | 3.13% | |
| Democratic (DFL) | Nick Leonard | 16,529 | 2.90% | |
| Democratic (DFL) | Christopher L. Seymore Sr. | 5,041 | 0.88% | |
| Total votes | 570,190 | 100% | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominated
- Karin Housley, state senator[14]
Eliminated in primary
Declined
- Sarah Anderson, Minnesota state representative[16]
- Michele Bachmann, former U.S. representative[10][17]
- Michelle Benson, state senator[18]
- Christopher Chamberlin (ran for U.S. House)[16]
- Norm Coleman, former U.S. senator from this seat (endorsed Housley)[19]
- Kurt Daudt, speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives
- Tom Emmer, U.S. representative from Minnesota's 6th congressional district (endorsed Housley, ran for re-election)[20]
- Paul Gazelka, majority leader of the Minnesota Senate[18]
- Pete Hegseth, veteran, Fox News contributor and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012[21]
- Amy Koch, former Minnesota state senator[21]
- Jason Lewis, U.S. representative from Minnesota's 2nd congressional district (ran for re-election)[9]
- Mike Lindell, CEO of My Pillow[22][23]
- Jenifer Loon, state representative (endorsed Housley)
- Stewart Mills III, businessman and nominee for MN-08 in 2014 and 2016[9]
- Erik Paulsen, U.S. representative from Minnesota's 3rd congressional district (ran for re-election)[10]
- Tim Pawlenty, former governor of Minnesota (ran for governor)[24][25]
- Joyce Peppin, majority leader of the Minnesota House of Representatives[16]
- Julie Rosen, Minnesota state senator[18]
Endorsements
Results
Map legend
- Housley—70–80%
- Housley—60–70%
- Housley—50–60%
- Housley—40–50%
- Housley/Anderson tie—40–50%
- Anderson—40–50%
- Anderson—50–60%
Map legend
- Housley—70–80%
- Housley—60–70%
- Housley—50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Karin Housley | 186,384 | 61.95% | |
| Republican | Bob Anderson | 107,102 | 35.60% | |
| Republican | Nikolay Nikolayevich Bey | 7,355 | 2.45% | |
| Total votes | 300,861 | 100% | ||
Minor parties and independents
Candidates
- Jerry Trooien (independent), real estate developer[26]
- Sarah Wellington (Legal Marijuana Now Party)[27]
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[28] | Lean D | October 26, 2018 |
| Inside Elections[29] | Likely D | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[30] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News[31] | Likely D | July 9, 2018 |
| CNN[32] | Likely D | July 12, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[33] | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
^Highest rating given
Endorsements
Karin Housley (R)
U.S. executive branch officials
- Mike Pence, vice president of the United States[34]
- Condoleezza Rice, former secretary of state[35]
- Donald Trump, president of the United States[36]
U.S. senators
- Rudy Boschwitz, former U.S. senator (R-MN)[37]
- Norm Coleman, former U.S. senator (R-MN)[38]
- Joni Ernst, U.S. senator (R-IA)[39]
- David Perdue, U.S. senator (R-GA)[40]
- Marco Rubio, U.S. senator (R-FL)[41]
U.S. representatives
- Tom Emmer, U.S. representative (R-MN-6)[42]
- Newt Gingrich, former U.S. representative (R-GA) and speaker of the House of Representatives[43]
State legislators
- Jim Abeler, state senator
- Tony Albright, state representative
- Bruce Anderson, state senator
- Dario Anselmo, state representative
- Michelle Benson, state senator
- Roger Chamberlain, state senator
- Drew Christensen, state representative
- Gary Dahms, state senator
- Bob Dettmer, state representative[44]
- Rich Draheim, state senator
- Justin Eichorn, state senator
- Sondra Erickson, state representative
- Kelly Fenton, state representative
- Keith Franke, state representative
- Mary Franson, state representative
- Pat Garofalo, state representative
- Mike Goggin, state senator
- Bob Gunther, state representative
- Dan Hall, state senator
- Joe Hoppe, state representative
- Jeff Howe, state representative
- Bill Ingebrigtsen, state senator
- Scott Jensen, state senator
- Brian Johnson, state representative
- Mark Johnson, state senator
- Tony Jurgens, state representative
- Deb Kiel, state representative
- Mary Kiffmeyer, state senator
- Mark Koran, state senator
- Ron Kresha, state representative
- Andrew Lang, state senator[44]
- Sandy Layman, state representative
- Kathy Lohmer, state representative
- Jenifer Loon, state representative
- Bob Loonan, state representative
- Eric Lucero, state representative
- Dale Lueck, state representative
- Andrew Mathews, state senator
- Joe McDonald, state representative
- Jeremy Miller, state senator
- Carla Nelson, state senator
- Scott Newman, state senator
- Marion O'Neill, state representative
- Joyce Peppin, state representative
- Roz Peterson, state representative
- Eric Pratt, state senator
- Jason Rarick, state representative
- Jerry Relph, state senator
- Julie Rosen, state senator
- Carrie Ruud, state senator
- David Senjem, state senator
- Tama Theis, state representative
- Dean Urdahl, state representative
- Paul Utke, state senator
- Bill Weber, state senator
- Nolan West, state representative
- Torrey Westrom, state senator
- Nick Zerwas, state representative
Individuals
- Phil Housley, professional ice hockey coach and former player[45]
Organizations
- Maggie's List[46]
- Minnesota Citizens Concerned for Life[47]
- Minnesota Fraternal Order of Police[48]
- Minnesota State Cattlemen's Association[49]
- National Cattlemen's Beef Association[49]
- National Federation of Independent Business[50]
- National Right to Life Committee[51]
- Police Officers Federation of Minneapolis[52]
- Republican Party of Minnesota[53]
- Susan B. Anthony List[54]
- U.S. Chamber of Commerce[55]
Newspapers
- Duluth News Tribune[56]
- Fairmont Sentinel[57]
Tina Smith (D)
Former U.S. executive branch officials
- Joe Biden, 47th vice president of the United States[58]
- Hillary Clinton, former U.S. secretary of state[59]
- Walter Mondale, 42nd vice president of the United States and former U.S. senator (D-MN)[60]
- Barack Obama, 44th president of the United States[61]
U.S. senators
- Tammy Baldwin, U.S. senator (D-WI)[62]
- Catherine Cortez Masto, U.S. senator (D-NV)[63]
- Dick Durbin, U.S senator (D-IL) and Senate Minority Whip[64]
- Kamala Harris, U.S. senator (D-CA)[65]
- Maggie Hassan, U.S. senator (D-NH)[66]
- Doug Jones, U.S senator (D-AL)[67]
- Amy Klobuchar, U.S. senator (D-MN)[68]
- Jeff Merkley, U.S. senator (D-OR)[69]
- Gary Peters, U.S. senator (D-MI)[70]
- Brian Schatz, U.S. senator (D-HI)[71]
- Elizabeth Warren, U.S. senator (D-MA)[72]
U.S. representatives
- Keith Ellison, U.S. representative (D-MN 5)[73]
- Betty McCollum, U.S. representative (D-MN 4)[74]
- Rick Nolan, U.S. representative (D-MN 8)[74]
- Collin Peterson, U.S. representative (D-MN 7)[74]
- Tim Walz, U.S. representative (D-MN 1)[74]
State and local politicians
- Melvin Carter, mayor of St. Paul[75]
- Mark Dayton, governor of Minnesota[73]
- Peggy Flanagan, state representative[76]
- Eric Garcetti, mayor of Los Angeles[77]
Individuals
- Cecile Richards, activist[78]
Labor unions
- American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees Council 5[79]
- Communications Workers of America[80]
- Education Minnesota[81]
- Minnesota State AFL–CIO[82]
- Service Employees International Union Minnesota State Council[83]
- United Automobile Workers[84]
- United Steelworkers District 11[85]
Organizations
- Council for a Livable World[86]
- Emily's List[87]
- Feminist Majority Political Action Committee [88]
- Human Rights Campaign[89]
- League of Conservation Voters Action Fund[90]
- Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party[91]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America[92]
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare[93]
- Natural Resources Defense Council Action Fund[94]
- Population Connection[95]
Newspapers and news websites
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate (party) | Total receipts | Total disbursements | Cash on hand |
| Tina Smith (D) | $8,237,522 | $7,308,790 | $928,730 |
| Karin Housley (R) | $4,049,032 | $3,689,562 | $359,470 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[97] | |||
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tina Smith (DFL) |
Karin Housley (R) |
Sarah Wellington (LMN) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research[98] | November 2–4, 2018 | 953 | – | 51% | 42% | 3% | 2%[99] | – |
| Research Co.[100] | November 1–3, 2018 | 450 | ± 4.6% | 49% | 39% | – | 2% | 10% |
| SurveyUSA[101] | October 29–31, 2018 | 600 | ± 5.3% | 48% | 40% | – | 5% | 7% |
| St. Cloud State University[102] | October 15–30, 2018 | 420 | – | 44% | 29% | – | – | – |
| Mason-Dixon[103] | October 15–17, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 47% | 41% | 1% | 1%[104] | 10% |
| Change Research[105] | October 12–13, 2018 | 1,413 | – | 46% | 43% | 5% | 2%[99] | 2% |
| Marist College[106] | September 30 – October 4, 2018 | 637 LV | ± 4.9% | 54% | 38% | – | <1% | 7% |
| 860 RV | ± 4.2% | 52% | 39% | – | <1% | 9% | ||
| Mason-Dixon[107] | September 10–12, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 44% | 37% | 2% | 2%[99] | 15% |
| SurveyUSA[108] | September 6–8, 2018 | 574 | ± 4.9% | 48% | 39% | – | 2% | 11% |
| Suffolk University[109] | August 17–20, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 44% | 37% | 2% | 0%[110] | 18% |
| Emerson College[111] | August 8–11, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.6% | 32% | 28% | – | – | 41% |
| Marist College[112] | July 15–19, 2018 | 876 | ± 4.0% | 49% | 35% | – | 1% | 15% |
| BK Strategies (R)[113] | June 24–25, 2018 | 1,574 | ± 2.5% | 48% | 39% | – | – | 13% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Al Franken (DFL) |
Karin Housley (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[111] | August 8–11, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.6% | 41% | 40% | 19% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Generic Democrat |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BK Strategies (R)[113] | June 24–25, 2018 | 1,574 | ± 2.5% | 49% | 42% | 9% |
Results
Smith won the election by 10.62 percentage points. Her margin was similar to that of Democratic gubernatorial nominee Tim Walz, who defeated his Republican opponent by 11.41%. Both of those margins of victory were much smaller than that of senior Senator Amy Klobuchar, who on the same day defeated her Republican opponent by 24.1 points. Smith won by huge margins in the Democratic strongholds of Hennepin County and Ramsey County, home of Minneapolis and St. Paul, respectively. She also managed a 10% margin of victory in suburban Dakota County, just outside Minneapolis, and won St. Louis County, home of Duluth. Housley won most of the state's rural areas. Turnout was high for a midterm election, with over 63% of registered voters in Minnesota casting ballots.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic (DFL) | Tina Smith (incumbent) | 1,370,540 | 52.97% | −0.18% | |
| Republican | Karin Housley | 1,095,777 | 42.35% | −0.56% | |
| Legal Marijuana Now | Sarah Wellington | 95,614 | 3.70% | N/A | |
| Independent | Jerry Trooien | 24,324 | 0.94% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 1,101 | 0.04% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 2,587,356 | 100.0% | N/A | ||
| Democratic (DFL) hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Aitkin (largest municipality: Aitkin)
- Lincoln (largest municipality: Tyler)
- Pine (largest city: Pine City)
- Fillmore (largest city: Spring Valley)
- Freeborn (largest city: Albert Lea)
- Itasca (largest city: Grand Rapids)
- Chippewa (largest city: Montevideo)
- Grant (largest city: Elbow Lake)
- Houston (largest city: La Crescent)
- Kanabec (largest city: Mora)
- Kandiyohi (largest city: Willmar)
- Le Sueur (largest city: Le Sueur)
- Marshall (largest city: Warren)
- Mille Lacs (largest city: Princeton)
- Pennington (largest city: Thief River Falls)
- Polk (largest city: East Grand Forks)
- Pope (largest city: Glenwood)
- Red Lake (largest city: Red Lake Falls)
- Renville (largest city: Olivia)
- Lac qui Parle (largest city: Madison)
- Big Stone (largest city: Ortonville)
- Swift (largest city: Benson)
- Stevens (largest city: Morris)
- Traverse (largest city: Wheaton)
- Wabasha (largest city: Lake City)
- Waseca (largest city: Waseca)
- Watonwan (largest city: St. James)
- Yellow Medicine (largest city: Granite Falls)
By congressional district
Smith won four of Minnesota's eight congressional districts. Housley won the other four, including one that elected a Democrat.[115]
| District | Smith | Housley | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 46% | 49% | Tim Walz (115th Congress) |
| Jim Hagedorn (116th Congress) | |||
| 2nd | 50% | 45% | Jason Lewis (115th Congress) |
| Angie Craig (116th Congress) | |||
| 3rd | 54% | 42% | Erik Paulsen (115th Congress) |
| Dean Phillips (116th Congress) | |||
| 4th | 64% | 31% | Betty McCollum |
| 5th | 77% | 18% | Keith Ellison (115th Congress) |
| Ilhan Omar (116th Congress) | |||
| 6th | 40% | 55% | Tom Emmer |
| 7th | 40% | 55% | Collin Peterson |
| 8th | 47% | 48% | Rick Nolan (115th Congress) |
| Pete Stauber (116th Congress) |
Voter demographics
| Demographic subgroup | Smith | Housley | No answer |
% of voters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gender | ||||
| Men | 49 | 49 | 2 | 46 |
| Women | 61 | 37 | 2 | 54 |
| Age | ||||
| 18–24 years old | 70 | 28 | 2 | 6 |
| 25–29 years old | 55 | 42 | 3 | 5 |
| 30–39 years old | 60 | 38 | 2 | 12 |
| 40–49 years old | 51 | 45 | 4 | 13 |
| 50–64 years old | 53 | 45 | 2 | 29 |
| 65 and older | 55 | 44 | 1 | 35 |
| Race | ||||
| White | 53 | 45 | 2 | 89 |
| Black | 85 | 12 | 3 | 5 |
| Latino | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3 |
| Asian | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2 |
| Other | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2 |
| Race by gender | ||||
| White men | 46 | 52 | 2 | 41 |
| White women | 59 | 40 | 1 | 48 |
| Black men | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3 |
| Black women | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2 |
| Latino men | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 |
| Latino women | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 |
| Others | N/A | N/A | N/A | 4 |
| Education | ||||
| High school or less | 56 | 43 | 1 | 17 |
| Some college education | 48 | 48 | 4 | 24 |
| Associate degree | 47 | 51 | 2 | 17 |
| Bachelor's degree | 59 | 40 | 1 | 26 |
| Advanced degree | 69 | 29 | 2 | 16 |
| Education and race | ||||
| White college graduates | 62 | 37 | 1 | 38 |
| White no college degree | 46 | 52 | 2 | 51 |
| Non-white college graduates | 72 | 28 | N/A | 4 |
| Non-white no college degree | 77 | 18 | 5 | 7 |
| Whites by education and gender | ||||
| White women with college degrees | 68 | 30 | 2 | 21 |
| White women without college degrees | 51 | 46 | 3 | 28 |
| White men with college degrees | 55 | 44 | 1 | 17 |
| White men without college degrees | 40 | 58 | 2 | 23 |
| Non-whites | 75 | 21 | 4 | 11 |
| Income | ||||
| Under $30,000 | 63 | 33 | 4 | 14 |
| $30,000–49,999 | 54 | 43 | 3 | 20 |
| $50,000–99,999 | 49 | 48 | 3 | 36 |
| $100,000–199,999 | 54 | 43 | 3 | 23 |
| Over $200,000 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 7 |
| Party ID | ||||
| Democrats | 96 | 4 | N/A | 39 |
| Republicans | 9 | 90 | 1 | 32 |
| Independents | 53 | 43 | 4 | 29 |
| Party by gender | ||||
| Democratic men | 96 | 4 | N/A | 14 |
| Democratic women | 95 | 4 | 1 | 25 |
| Republican men | 7 | 91 | 2 | 15 |
| Republican women | 10 | 89 | 1 | 17 |
| Independent men | 47 | 49 | 4 | 16 |
| Independent women | 60 | 36 | 4 | 13 |
| Ideology | ||||
| Liberals | 93 | 4 | 3 | 27 |
| Moderates | 67 | 31 | 2 | 39 |
| Conservatives | 11 | 87 | 2 | 33 |
| Marital status | ||||
| Married | 50 | 48 | 2 | 67 |
| Unmarried | 65 | 33 | 2 | 33 |
| Gender by marital status | ||||
| Married men | 47 | 52 | 1 | 31 |
| Married women | 52 | 45 | 3 | 36 |
| Unmarried men | 55 | 40 | 5 | 15 |
| Unmarried women | 74 | 26 | N/A | 17 |
| First-time midterm election voter | ||||
| Yes | 53 | 46 | 1 | 12 |
| No | 58 | 40 | 2 | 88 |
| Most important issue facing the country | ||||
| Health care | 75 | 23 | 2 | 49 |
| Immigration | 23 | 75 | 2 | 22 |
| Economy | 32 | 65 | 3 | 19 |
| Gun policy | N/A | N/A | N/A | 8 |
| Area type | ||||
| Urban | 66 | 31 | 3 | 40 |
| Suburban | 52 | 45 | 3 | 32 |
| Rural | 42 | 56 | 2 | 28 |
| Source: CNN[116] | ||||
See also
Notes
- In December 2017, Smith was appointed by Governor Mark Dayton to fill the vacancy caused by the resignation of Senator Al Franken.