2020 United States Senate election in Minnesota

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The 2020 United States Senate election in Minnesota was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Minnesota, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the U.S. Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and other state and local elections. Some Republican pundits and strategists believed Minnesota to be a potential pickup opportunity due to its perceived increasingly favorable demographics[citation needed] and unexpectedly close result in the 2016 presidential election, along with potential backlash from the 2020 George Floyd protests, originating after the murder of George Floyd in Minneapolis. However, every poll showed incumbent Democratic Senator Tina Smith in the lead by varying degrees.

Quick facts Nominee, Party ...
2020 United States Senate election in Minnesota
← 2018 (special)
November 3, 2020
2026 →
 
Nominee Tina Smith Jason Lewis Kevin O'Connor
Party Democratic (DFL) Republican Legal Marijuana Now
Popular vote 1,566,522 1,398,145 190,154
Percentage 48.74% 43.50% 5.91%
Smith:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Lewis:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%      No votes
U.S. senator before election

Tina Smith
Democratic (DFL)

 Elected U.S. Senator

Tina Smith
Democratic (DFL)

Close

Smith was reelected to a full term in office by a margin of 5.2 points, making this the closest Senate election in Minnesota since 2008. The primary took place on August 11.[1]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Steve Carlson, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018 and write-in candidate for president in 2016[3][4][5]
  • Ahmad Hassan[5]
  • Paula Overby, Green Party nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018[6][5]
  • Christopher Seymore Sr.[5]

Withdrawn

Endorsements

Tina Smith

U.S. senators

  • Amy Klobuchar, U.S. senator from Minnesota; former 2020 presidential candidate[9]

Organizations

Labor unions

Results

Results by county:
Map legend
  •   Smith—>90%
  •   Smith—80–90%
  •   Smith—70–80%
More information Party, Candidate ...
Democratic primary results[31]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic (DFL) Tina Smith (incumbent) 497,498 87.14%
Democratic (DFL) Paula Overby 30,497 5.34%
Democratic (DFL) Ahmad Hassan 20,037 3.51%
Democratic (DFL) Steve Carlson 16,429 2.88%
Democratic (DFL) Christopher Seymore 6,480 1.13%
Total votes 570,941 100.00%
Close

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • John L. Berman[5]
  • Bob Carney Jr.[5][33]
  • Cynthia Gail, art teacher[34]
  • James Reibestein[5]

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Jason Lewis

U.S. president

Political organizations

Results

Results by county:
Map legend
  •   Lewis—80–90%
  •   Lewis—70–80%
  •   Lewis—60–70%
  •   Lewis—50–60%
More information Party, Candidate ...
Republican primary results[31]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Jason Lewis 191,290 78.11%
Republican Cynthia Gail 17,675 7.22%
Republican John Berman 16,213 6.62%
Republican Bob Carney Jr. 10,503 4.29%
Republican James Reibestein 9,210 3.76%
Total votes 244,891 100.00%
Close

Other candidates

Grassroots–Legalize Cannabis

Nominee

  • Oliver Steinberg[5]

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
Grassroots–Legalize Cannabis primary results[31]
Party Candidate Votes %
Grassroots—LC Oliver Steinberg 3,275 100.00%
Total votes 3,275 100.00%
Close

Nominee

  • Kevin O'Connor[5]

Primary results

County results for Kevin O'Connor:
Map legend
  •   8%
  •   7%
  •   6%
  •   5%
  •   4%
  •   3%
More information Party, Candidate ...
Legal Marijuana Now primary results[31]
Party Candidate Votes %
Legal Marijuana Now Kevin O'Connor 6,996 100.00%
Total votes 6,996 100.00%
Close

Independent write-in candidate

Declared

  • George Dennis Jr.[47]
  • Josh D. Ondich, perennial candidate[48][49]

General election

Debate

Two general election debates were held. The first, on October 2, 2020, was hosted by Minnesota Public Radio and was attended by Smith and Lewis.[50] The second debate was hosted by Twin Cities PBS on October 23, 2020, and was attended only by Lewis.[51]

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[52] Safe D October 29, 2020
Inside Elections[53] Safe D October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[54] Likely D November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[55] Likely D October 30, 2020
Politico[56] Likely D November 2, 2020
RCP[57] Tossup October 23, 2020
DDHQ[58] Likely D November 3, 2020
538[59] Safe D November 2, 2020
Economist[60] Likely D November 2, 2020
Close

Additional general election endorsements

Tina Smith (DFL)

U.S. senators

Organizations

Labor unions

Newspapers

Jason Lewis (R)

U.S. executive branch officials

U.S. representatives

Other individuals

Organizations

Newspapers

Polling

%support01020304050602020/05/282020/09/082020/10/202020/11/01Tina SmithJason LewisOther/UndecidedOpinion polling for the 2020 United States S...
View source data.
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Tina
Smith (DFL)		 Jason
Lewis (R)		 Other Undecided
Research Co.[87] October 31 – November 1, 2020 450 (LV) 4.6% 50% 39% 2%[a] 9%
Data for Progress[88] October 27 – November 1, 2020 1,259 (LV) ± 2.8% 54% 44% 2%[b] –
Swayable[89] October 23 – November 1, 2020 430 (LV) ± 6.1% 55% 46% – –
Public Policy Polling[90] October 29–30, 2020 770 (V) – 51% 42% – 6%
Targoz Market Research/PollSmart[91] October 25–30, 2020 1,138 (LV) – 53% 44% 3%[c] –
St. Cloud State University[92] October 10–29, 2020 372 (A) ± 6.7% 53% 36% – –
SurveyUSA[93] October 23–27, 2020 649 (LV) ± 4.3% 45% 42% 3%[d] 10%
Gravis Marketing[94] October 24–26, 2020 657 (LV) ± 3.8% 53% 39% – 8%
Civiqs/Daily Kos[95] October 17–20, 2020 840 (LV) ± 3.6% 54% 43% 2%[e] 1%
SurveyUSA[96] October 16–20, 2020 625 (LV) ± 5% 43% 42% 3%[d] 12%
Change Research[97] October 12–15, 2020[f] 1,021 (LV) ± 3.1% 48% 44% 4%[g] 5%
SurveyUSA[98] October 1–6, 2020 929 (LV) ± 3.9% 44% 37% 4%[h] 16%
Suffolk University[99] September 20–24, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 35% 6%[i] 14%
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy[100] September 21–23, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 41% – 10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[101] September 12–17, 2020 718 (LV) ± 3.7% 51% 36% 2%[j] 11%
CBS News/YouGov[102] September 9–11, 2020 1,087 (LV) ± 3.9% 47% 40% 2%[a] 10%
Siena College/NYT Upshot[103] September 8–10, 2020 814 (LV) ± 3.9% 49% 40% 0%[k] 11%[l]
SurveyUSA[104] September 4–7, 2020 553 (LV) ± 5.2% 47% 36% 3%[d] 14%
Public Policy Polling[105] September 3–4, 2020 877 (V) ± 3.3% 49% 41% 3%[m] 7%
Harper Polling (R)[106][A] August 30 – September 1, 2020 501 (LV) ± 4.4% 43% 41% – 10%
Emerson College[107] August 8–10, 2020 733 (LV) ± 3.6% 48% 45% – 7%
Public Policy Polling (D)[108][B] July 22–23, 2020 1,218 (V) ± 3.2% 48% 39% – 13%
Harper Polling (R)[106][A] May 26–28, 2020 510 (LV) – 46% 35% – 20%
Close
Hypothetical polling

with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Generic
Democrat		 Generic
Republican		 Other Undecided
PPP[109] Sep 3–4, 2020 877 (V) ± 3.3% 51% 44% – 4%
Harper Polling/Jason Lewis[106][A] Aug 30 – Sep 1, 2020 501 (LV) ± 4.38% 45% 43% 3%[m] 9%
Emerson College[107] Aug 8–10, 2020 733 (LV) ± 3.6% 48% 46% – 7%
Harper Polling (R)[106][A] May 26–28, 2020 510 (LV) – 44% 40% – –
Close

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
2020 United States Senate election in Minnesota[110]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic (DFL) Tina Smith (incumbent) 1,566,522 48.74% −4.23%
Republican Jason Lewis 1,398,145 43.50% +1.15%
Legal Marijuana Now Kevin O'Connor 190,154 5.91% +2.21%
Grassroots—LC Oliver Steinberg 57,174 1.78% N/A
Write-in 2,261 0.07% +0.03%
Total votes 3,214,256 100.00% N/A
Democratic (DFL) hold
Close

By county

More information By county, County ...
Close

By congressional district

Smith and Lewis each won four of eight congressional districts.[112]

More information District, Smith ...
District Smith Lewis Representative
1st 42% 50% Jim Hagedorn
2nd 48% 45% Angie Craig
3rd 53% 40% Dean Phillips
4th 62% 30% Betty McCollum
5th 73% 18% Ilhan Omar
6th 36% 56% Tom Emmer
7th 34% 59% Collin Peterson
Michelle Fischbach
8th 40% 52% Pete Stauber
Close

See also

Notes

  1. [a]
    "Someone else" with 2%
  2. [b]
    "Other candidate or write-in" with 2%
  3. [c]
    "Not sure/Someone else/Undecided" with 3%
  4. [d]
    "Some other candidate" with 3%
  5. [e]
    O'Connor (LMN) and Steinberg (GLC) with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%
  6. [f]
    Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  7. [g]
    O'Connor (LMN) with 3%; Steinberg (GLC) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  8. [h]
    "Some other candidate" with 4%
  9. [i]
    O'Connor (LMN) and "Refused" with 2%; Steinberg (GLC) and "Other" with 1%
  10. [j]
    "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 2%
  11. [k]
    "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
  12. [l]
    Includes "Refused"
  13. [m]
    "Someone else" with 3%

Partisan clients

  1. [A]
    Poll sponsored by Lewis' campaign
  2. [B]
    Giffords endorsed Tina Smith prior to the sampling period

References

External links

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