2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina
US state election
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of North Carolina, concurrently with the 2020 United States presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. North Carolina was one of just five states holding presidential, gubernatorial, and senatorial elections concurrently in 2020. On March 3, 2020, Republican incumbent Thom Tillis and former Democratic state Senator Cal Cunningham won their respective primaries.[1]
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November 3, 2020
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| Turnout | 77.4%  | ||||||||||||||||
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   Tillis: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Cunningham: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% | |||||||||||||||||
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![](#/media/File:James_"Cal"_Cunningham_(cropped_2).jpg)
Cunningham led Tillis in the polls throughout much of the campaign.[2] In early October 2020, it was reported that Cunningham had exchanged sexually suggestive messages with a married woman who was not his wife. Cunningham confirmed the texts were authentic and apologized for his behavior.[3][4] The woman stated that she had a consensual physical relationship with Cunningham in 2020.[5][6]
Tillis was elected to a second and final term, outperforming pre-election polling to win a narrow victory, breaking the "one-term curse" that existed with this particular Senate seat for over twenty years; as no incumbent had been re-elected to this seat since 1996 when Jesse Helms won reelection.[7][8][9] On November 10, 2020, a week after Election Day, Cunningham called Tillis to concede the race.[10] Tillis won by a margin of 1.8% over Cunningham, slightly larger than his 1.5% victory in 2014.[11][12] Tillis received a smaller vote share than Donald Trump's 49.93%, but slightly overperformed his margin of victory in North Carolina.
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Thom Tillis, incumbent U.S. senator[13]
Eliminated in primary
- Larry Holmquist, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016[14]
- Sharon Hudson, activist[14]
- Paul Wright, former North Carolina Superior Court judge, perennial candidate, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016[14]
Withdrawn
- Sandy Smith, farm owner[15] (running for U.S. House in NC-01)
- Garland Tucker, former CEO and chairman of Triangle Capital[16]
Declined
- Ted Budd, incumbent U.S. representative for North Carolina's 13th congressional district[17]
- Mark Meadows, former U.S. representative for North Carolina's 11th congressional district[18]
- Mark Walker, incumbent U.S. representative for North Carolina's 6th congressional district[19]
Endorsements
Thom Tillis
U.S. presidents
- George W. Bush, 43rd president of the United States[20]
U.S. executive branch officials
Organizations
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Sandy Smith |
Thom Tillis |
Garland Tucker |
Mark Walker |
Paul Wright |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Point University[23] | February 21–28, 2020 | 247 (LV) | – | – | 69% | – | – | 8% | 8%[b] | 16% |
| 444 (RV) | – | – | 58% | – | – | 7% | 10%[c] | 26% | ||
| Meredith College[24] | February 16–24, 2020 | 353 (LV) | ± 3.0% | – | 53% | – | – | 5% | 6%[d] | 36% |
| SurveyUSA[25] | February 13–16, 2020 | 501 (LV) | ± 5.0% | – | 59% | – | – | 3% | 8%[e] | 29% |
| High Point University[26] | January 31 – February 6, 2020 | 198 (LV) | – | – | 62% | – | – | 7% | 5%[f] | 27% |
| 400 (RV) | – | – | 52% | – | – | 6% | 5%[g] | 38% | ||
| Smith withdraws from the race; Wright announces his candidacy | ||||||||||
| Walker announces he will not run[27] | ||||||||||
| Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[28] | December 2–4, 2019 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.38% | 11%[h] | 63% | – | – | – | – | 25% |
| Tucker withdraws from the race | ||||||||||
| FOX News[29] | November 10–13, 2019 | 574 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 4% | 54% | 11% | – | – | 5%[i] | 26% |
| Public Policy Polling[30] | August 19–20, 2019 | 564 (V) | – | –[j] | 38% | 31% | – | – | – | 31% |
| Diversified Research (R)[31][32][A] | July 8–9, 2019 | 500 (V) | – | – | 40% | 30% | – | – | – | 30% |
| WPA Intelligence (R)[33][B] | May 19–21, 2019 | 502 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 2%[k] | 40% | 11% | 17% | – | – | 30% |
| 2%[l] | 18% | 8% | 56% | – | – | 16% | ||||
| Tucker announces his candidacy[34] | ||||||||||
| Diversified Research (R)[31][32][A] | Months before May, 2019 | –[m] | – | – | 63% | 7% | – | – | – | 30% |
Hypothetical polling
with only Thom Tillis and Mark Walker
with Thom Tillis and Generic Republican
Results
Tillis
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Thom Tillis (incumbent) | 608,943 | 78.08% | |
| Republican | Paul Wright | 58,908 | 7.55% | |
| Republican | Larry Holmquist | 57,356 | 7.35% | |
| Republican | Sharon Y. Hudson | 54,651 | 7.01% | |
| Total votes | 779,858 | 100.00% | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Cal Cunningham, former state senator and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010[35]
Eliminated in primary
- Trevor Fuller, Mecklenburg County commissioner[36]
- Atul Goel, physician and former United States Air Force officer[37]
- Erica D. Smith, state senator[38]
- Steve Swenson[37]
Withdrawn
- Katherine Bell-Moore[39]
- Eva F. Lee, attorney[40] (running for North Carolina Commissioner of Labor)[41]
- Eric L. Mansfield, former state senator[42]
- Steve Williams[39]
Declined
- Janet Cowell, former North Carolina State Treasurer[43] (endorsed Cunningham)
- Anthony Foxx, former U.S. Secretary of Transportation and former mayor of Charlotte[43] (endorsed Cunningham)
- Rachel Hunt, state representative[43]
- Vi Lyles, mayor of Charlotte[44]
- Dan McCready, former U.S. Marine, businessman, and nominee for North Carolina's 9th congressional district in 2018 and 2019 special election[43]
- Deborah K. Ross, former state representative and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2016[45] (running for North Carolina's 2nd congressional district)
- Thomas W. Ross, former president of the University of North Carolina system[46]
- Josh Stein, North Carolina Attorney General[47] (running for reelection)
- Brian Turner, state representative[43]
Endorsements
Cal Cunningham
Federal officials
- Sherrod Brown, U.S. senator (OH)[48]
- Bob Casey Jr., U.S. senator (PA)[49]
- Kay Hagan, former U.S. senator (NC) (2009–2015)[50] (deceased)
- Tim Kaine, U.S. senator (VA)[51]
- Amy Klobuchar, U.S. senator (MN)[52]
State officials
- Howard Nathaniel Lee, former North Carolina state senator and former mayor of Chapel Hill[50]
Local officials
- Harvey Gantt, former mayor of Charlotte and Democratic nominee in 1990 and 1996 U.S. Senate elections[53]
Organizations
- Brady Campaign[54]
- Council for a Livable World[55]
- Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee[56]
- J Street PAC[57]
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare[58]
- Replacements, Ltd. PAC[59]
Newspapers
- The Charlotte Observer/The News & Observer[60]
- The Charlotte Post[61]
- Indy Week (also endorsed Erica D. Smith)[62]
Individuals
- Alex Hirsch, writer, artist, and animator[63]
Erica D. Smith
Federal officials
- Eva Clayton, former U.S. representative from North Carolina's 1st district and Assistant Director-General of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations[64]
State officials
- Linda Coleman, former North Carolina state representative, 2012 and 2016 lieutenant governor Democratic nominee, and 2018 Democratic nominee to North Carolina's 2nd congressional district[64]
- Mickey Michaux, North Carolina state senator[64]
Newspapers
Organizations
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Cal Cunningham |
Trevor Fuller |
Atul Goel |
Erica Smith |
Steve Swenson |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Point University[23] | February 21–28, 2020 | 274 (LV) | – | 50% | 4% | 1% | 24% | 3% | 18% |
| 474 (RV) | – | 42% | 5% | 1% | 24% | 4% | 4% | ||
| Civitas Institute/Spry Strategies[66] | February 26–27, 2020 | 587 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 45% | 2% | 1% | 23% | 1% | 28% |
| NBC News/Marist[67] | February 23–27, 2020 | 568 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 51% | 3% | 1% | 18% | 2% | 25% |
| Public Policy Polling[68] | February 23–24, 2020 | 852 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 45% | 4% | 1% | 18% | 2% | 30% |
| Meredith College[24] | February 16–24, 2020 | 429 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 2% | 1% | 14% | 2% | 36% |
| Civitas Institute/Spry Strategies[69] | February 21–23, 2020 | 553 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 1% | 0% | 21% | 1% | 29% |
| SurveyUSA[25] | February 13–16, 2020 | 698 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 42% | 3% | 1% | 17% | 3% | 34% |
| High Point University[26] | January 31 – February 6, 2020 | 224 (LV) | – | 37% | 4% | 0% | 11% | 4% | 44% |
| 397 (RV) | – | 29% | 5% | 1% | 10% | 5% | 50% | ||
| Public Policy Polling[70] | February 4–5, 2020 | 604 (LV) | – | 29% | 3% | 2% | 10% | 4% | 52% |
| Public Policy Polling[71] | January 10–12, 2020 | 509 (LV) | – | 22% | 2% | 3% | 12% | 1% | 60% |
| FOX News[29] | November 10–13, 2019 | 669 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 13% | 10% | – | 18% | – | 49% |
Results
Cunningham
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
Smith
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Cal Cunningham | 717,941 | 56.93% | |
| Democratic | Erica D. Smith | 438,969 | 34.81% | |
| Democratic | Trevor M. Fuller | 48,168 | 3.82% | |
| Democratic | Steve Swenson | 33,741 | 2.68% | |
| Democratic | Atul Goel | 22,226 | 1.76% | |
| Total votes | 1,261,045 | 100.00% | ||
Other candidates
Libertarian Party
Nominee
- Shannon Bray, U.S. Navy veteran, author, and candidate for North Carolina's 3rd congressional district in 2019[72]
Constitution Party
Nominee
- Kevin E. Hayes, candidate for the North Carolina House of Representatives in 2012 and 2018[73]
Independence Party
Withdrawn
Independent write-in candidates
Withdrawn
General election
Campaign
During the Democratic primary, a Republican-funded Super PAC spent $3 million on ads attacking Cunningham and promoting left-wing rival Erica D. Smith.[77][78]
Cunningham and Tillis participated in debates on September 13,[79] September 22,[80] and October 1.[81]
In July, Tillis claimed Cunningham had been "silent" on the issue of defunding the police, saying,—"I assume [his] silence is ...consent". In reality, Cunningham had spoken publicly about the issue and written an op-ed a month earlier stating his opposition to defunding the police, advocating police reform instead.[82]
On October 3, the New York Times wrote that the race had fallen into "utter mayhem" within a period of a few hours after Tillis tested positive for COVID-19 and Cunningham admitted to exchanging sexual text messages with a woman who was not his wife, damaging an image that leaned heavily on his character and military service. Days later, the woman stated that she had had a consensual physical relationship with Cunningham in 2020.[5] The Army Reserve started an investigation into Cunningham.[83] The husband of the woman who stated that she had had an affair with Cunningham, himself an Army veteran, called on Cunningham to drop out of the Senate race.[6] Asked repeatedly whether he had had other extramarital affairs, Cunningham declined to answer.[84][85][86][87]
Tillis's diagnosis, which came after an outbreak at a White House ceremony for Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett, temporarily threw Barrett's confirmation into jeopardy, as two Republican senators had already stated their intention to vote against (though one of them would eventually vote in favor of her confirmation).[88][89]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| 538[90] | Lean D (flip) | November 2, 2020 |
| Economist[91] | Lean D (flip) | November 2, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[92] | Tossup | October 30, 2020 |
| DDHQ[93] | Lean D (flip) | November 3, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[94] | Tilt D (flip) | October 28, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[95] | Lean D (flip) | November 2, 2020 |
| RCP[96] | Tossup | October 23, 2020 |
| The Cook Political Report[97] | Tossup | October 29, 2020 |
| Politico[98] | Tossup | November 2, 2020 |
Post-primary endorsements
Thom Tillis (R)
U.S. presidents
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States
U.S. executive branch officials
- Nikki Haley, former ambassador to the United Nations and former governor of South Carolina[99]
Organizations
- Campaign for Working Families[100]
- Huck PAC[101]
- National Right to Life[102]
- NRA Political Victory Fund[103][100]
- Republican Jewish Coalition[104]
Cal Cunningham (D)
U.S. presidents
U.S. senators, representatives, and federal officials
- Alma Adams, U.S. representative from North Carolina's 12th congressional district[106]
- G. K. Butterfield, U.S. representative from North Carolina's 1st congressional district[106]
- Seth Moulton, U.S. representative from Massachusetts's 6th congressional district[107]
- David Price, U.S. representative from North Carolina's 4th congressional district[106]
State officials
- Stacey Abrams, former minority leader of the Georgia House of Representatives and Democratic nominee in 2018 Georgia gubernatorial election[108]
- Linda Coleman, former North Carolina State Representative, 2012 and 2016 Lieutenant Governor Democratic nominee, and 2018 Democratic nominee to North Carolina's 2nd congressional district[109]
Local officials
- Pete Buttigieg, former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, and former 2020 presidential candidate[110][111]
Organizations
- Bend the Arc: Jewish Action[112]
- Black Economic Alliance[113]
- Center for Biological Diversity[114]
- Communications Workers of America[115]
- End Citizens United[116]
- Equality NC[117]
- Everytown for Gun Safety[118]
- Feminist Majority PAC[119]
- Giffords[120]
- Human Rights Campaign[121]
- Indivisible District 9[122]
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs[123]
- League of Conservation Voters[124]
- NARAL[125]
- National Education Association[126]
- National Organization for Women[127]
- Natural Resources Defense Council[128]
- North Carolina State AFL-CIO[129]
- Patriotic Millionaires[130]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[131]
- Sierra Club[132]
- United Auto Workers[133]
- VoteVets.org[134]
Fundraising
In the first quarter of 2020, Cunningham outraised Tillis for the first time, receiving $4.4 million compared to the $2.1 million Tillis raised. Tillis's prior fundraising, however, left him with the advantage in cash on hand, with $6.5 million in the bank, compared to Cunningham's $3 million.[135]
Polling
Graphical summary
View source data.
Aggregate polls
| Cal Cunningham vs. Thom Tillis | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Cal Cunningham | Thom Tillis | Other/Undecided[q] | Margin |
| 270 to Win[136] | November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 47.0% | 44.2% | 8.8% | Cunningham +2.8% |
| Real Clear Politics[137] | November 1, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 47.6% | 45.0% | 7.4% | Cunningham +2.6% |
Tillis vs. Cunningham
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Thom Tillis (R) |
Cal Cunningham (D) |
Shannon Bray (L) |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research/CNBC[138] | October 29 – November 1, 2020 | 473 (LV) | ± 4.51% | 46% | 50% | – | 5%[r] |
| Swayable[139] | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 619 (LV) | ± 5.6% | 47% | 53% | – | – |
| Ipsos/Reuters[140] | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 707 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 46% | 48% | – | 6%[s] |
| Data for Progress[141] | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 908 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 46% | 51% | 1% | 1%[t] |
| Frederick Polls[142][C] | October 30–31, 2020 | 676 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 50% | 3% | 2%[u] |
| Emerson College[143] | October 29–31, 2020 | 855 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 47%[v] | 50% | – | 2%[w] |
| Morning Consult[144] | October 22–31, 2020 | 1,982 (LV) | ± 2% | 43% | 47% | – | – |
| CNN/SSRS[145] | October 23–30, 2020 | 901 (LV) | ± 4% | 44% | 47% | 2% | 5%[x] |
| Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports[146] | October 28–29, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 47% | – | 9%[y] |
| East Carolina University[147] | October 27–28, 2020 | 1,103 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 46%[v] | 48% | – | 5%[z] |
| Cardinal Point Analytics (R)[148] | October 27–28, 2020 | 750 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 41% | 6% | 7%[aa] |
| Marist College/NBC[149] | October 25–28, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 43% | 53% | – | 4%[ab] |
| Gravis Marketing[150] | October 26–27, 2020 | 614 (LV) | ± 4% | 44% | 46% | – | 9%[ac] |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[151][D] | October 26–27, 2020 | 937 (V) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 47% | – | 9%[ac] |
| Meeting Street Insights/Carolina Partnership for Reform (R)[152] | October 24–27, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 43% | 47% | – | – |
| Siena College/NYT Upshot[153] | October 23–27, 2020 | 1,034 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 43% | 46% | 2% | 9%[ad] |
| Ipsos/Reuters[154] | October 21–27, 2020 | 647 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 48% | – | 4%[ae] |
| RMG Research[155][af] | October 24–26, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42%[k] | 49% | – | 9%[ag] |
| 40%[ah] | 51% | – | 9%[ag] | ||||
| 43%[ai] | 48% | – | 9%[ag] | ||||
| Swayable[156] | October 23–26, 2020 | 363 (LV) | ± 7.1% | 50% | 50% | – | – |
| SurveyUSA[157] | October 23–26, 2020 | 627 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 48% | – | 7%[aj] |
| YouGov/UMass Lowell[158] | October 20–26, 2020 | 911 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 45% | 49% | – | 7%[ak] |
| Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[159] | October 22–25, 2020 | 504 (LV) | ± 4.37% | 43% | 46% | 2% | 8%[al] |
| YouGov/CBS[160] | October 20–23, 2020 | 1,022 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 43% | 49% | – | 8%[am] |
| Trafalgar Group[161] | October 20–22, 2020 | 1,098 (LV) | ± 2.89% | 49% | 47% | 2% | 2%[an] |
| Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports[162] | October 20–21, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 45% | – | 10%[ao] |
| Citizen Data[163] | October 17–20, 2020 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 42% | 48% | – | 9%[ap] |
| Ipsos/Reuters[164] | October 14–20, 2020 | 660 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 47% | 47% | – | 6%[aq] |
| Morning Consult[144] | October 11–20, 2020 | 1,904 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 42% | 48% | – | – |
| Meredith College[165] | October 16–19, 2020 | 732 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 38% | 43% | 4% | 15%[ar] |
| Change Research/CNBC[166] | October 16–19, 2020 | 521 (LV)[as] | – | 45% | 51% | – | – |
| Data for Progress (D)[167] | October 15–18, 2020 | 929 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 42% | 46% | 1% | 11%[at] |
| East Carolina University[168] | October 15–18, 2020 | 1,155 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 47% | 48% | – | 5%[au] |
| ABC/Washington Post[169] | October 12–17, 2020 | 646 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 47% | 49% | – | 4%[av] |
| Emerson College[170] | October 13–14, 2020 | 721 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 44% | 45% | – | 12%[aw] |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos[171] | October 11–14, 2020 | 1,211 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 51% | 2% | 3%[ax] |
| Siena College/NYT Upshot[172] | October 9–13, 2020 | 627 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 37% | 41% | 4% | 19%[ay] |
| Ipsos/Reuters[173] | October 7–13, 2020 | 660 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 42% | 46% | – | 12%[az] |
| Monmouth University[174] | October 8–11, 2020 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 48% | 3% | 4%[ba] |
| 500 (LV)[bb] | 44% | 49% | – | 6%[bc] | |||
| 500 (LV)[bd] | 47% | 48% | – | 4%[ab] | |||
| SurveyUSA[175] | October 8–11, 2020 | 669 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 39% | 49% | – | 11%[be] |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. (R)[176][E] | October 7–11, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 44% | 46% | – | 9%[bf] |
| RMG Research[177][bg] | October 7–11, 2020 | 800 (LV) | – | 36% | 46% | 4% | 15%[bh] |
| Morning Consult[178] | October 2–11, 2020 | 1,993 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 41% | 47% | – | – |
| Ipsos/Reuters[179] | September 29 – October 6, 2020 | 693 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 42% | 47% | – | 11%[bi] |
| Public Policy Polling[180] | October 4–5, 2020 | 911 (V) | ± 3.3% | 42% | 48% | – | 11%[bj] |
| Data For Progress (D)[181] | September 30 – October 5, 2020 | 1,285 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 39% | 50% | 2% | 9%[bk] |
| Change Research/CNBC[182] | October 2–4, 2020 | 396 (LV) | – | 46% | 50% | – | 4%[bl] |
| East Carolina University[183] | October 2–4, 2020 | 1,232 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 46% | – | 7%[bm] |
| ALG Research (D)[184][F] | September 22–28, 2020 | 822 (V) | – | 41% | 53% | – | – |
| Hart Research Associates (D)[185][G] | September 24–27, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 41% | 54% | – | – |
| YouGov/CBS[186] | September 22–25, 2020 | 1,213 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 38% | 48% | – | 14%[bn] |
| YouGov/UMass Lowell[187] | September 18–25, 2020 | 921 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 43% | 49% | – | 8%[bo] |
| Meredith College[188] | September 18–22, 2020 | 705 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 43% | 4% | 13%[bp] |
| Change Research/CNBC[189] | September 18–20, 2020 | 579 (LV) | – | 43% | 48% | – | 9%[bq] |
| Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[190] | September 17–20, 2020 | 612 (LV) | ± 3.96% | 38% | 44% | 3% | 15%[br] |
| Morning Consult[191] | September 11–20, 2020 | 1,604 (LV) | ± (2% – 7%) | 38%[bs] | 47% | – | – |
| Emerson College[192] | September 16–18, 2020 | 717 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 43% | 49% | – | 8%[bt] |
| Morning Consult[193] | September 8–17, 2020 | 1,664 (LV)[as] | ± (2% – 4%) | 39% | 46% | – | – |
| Ipsos/Reuters[194] | September 11–16, 2020 | 586 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 44% | 48% | – | 9%[bu] |
| Siena College/NYT Upshot[195] | September 11–16, 2020 | 653 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 37% | 42% | 2% | 19%[bv] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[196] | September 12–15, 2020 | 1,092 (LV) | ± 2.97% | 38% | 49% | – | 13%[bw] |
| Suffolk University[197] | September 10–14, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 38% | 42% | 6% | 15%[bx] |
| SurveyUSA[198] | September 10–13, 2020 | 596 (LV) | ± 5.6% | 40% | 47% | – | 13%[by] |
| CNN/SSRS[199] | September 9–13, 2020 | 787 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 47% | 3% | 4%[bz] |
| 893 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 44% | 46% | 4% | 6%[ca] | ||
| Kaiser Family Foundation/Cook Political Report[200] | August 29 – September 13, 2020 | 1,116 (RV) | – | 37% | 41% | – | 22%[cb] |
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[201] | September 9–11, 2020 | 1,046 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 46% | 3% | 6%[cc] |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research[202] | September 7–8, 2020 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 47% | – | 10%[cd] |
| Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group[203][H] | August 8 – September 8, 2020 | 1,600 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 39% | 42% | 5% | 13%[ce] |
| Change Research/CNBC[204] | September 4–6, 2020 | 442 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 44% | 51% | – | 5%[cf] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[205] | August 30 – September 3, 2020 | 951 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 37% | 47% | – | 16%[cg] |
| Monmouth University[206] | August 29 – September 1, 2020 | 401 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 46% | 2% | 7%[ch] |
| 401 (LV)[ci] | 45% | 47% | – | 8%[cj] | |||
| 401 (LV)[ck] | 46% | 46% | – | 8%[cj] | |||
| FOX News[207] | August 29 – September 1, 2020 | 722 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 48% | 3% | 8%[cl] |
| 804 (RV) | 40% | 47% | 3% | 10%[cm] | |||
| East Carolina University[208] | August 29–30, 2020 | 1,101 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 44% | 44% | – | 12%[cn] |
| Change Research/CNBC[209] | August 21–23, 2020 | 560 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 42% | 52% | – | 6%[co] |
| Morning Consult[210] | August 14–23, 2020 | 1,541 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 39% | 47% | – | 14% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[211] | August 16–18, 2020 | 856 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 38% | 47% | – | 16%[cp] |
| East Carolina University[212] | August 12–13, 2020 | 1,255 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 40% | 44% | – | 16%[cq] |
| Emerson College[213] | August 8–10, 2020 | 673 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 44% | – | 14%[cr] |
| Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[214] | August 6–10, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 41% | 2% | 18%[cs] |
| Change Research/CNBC[215] | August 7–9, 2020 | 491 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 48% | – | 10%[ct] |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[216][I] | July 30–31, 2020 | 934 (V) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 48% | – | 8%[bt] |
| Data for Progress[217] | July 24 – August 2, 2020 | 1,170 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 41% | 49% | – | 10%[cu] |
| YouGov/CBS[218] | July 28–31, 2020 | 1,121 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 39% | 48% | – | 12%[cv] |
| HIT Strategies (D)[219][J] | July 23–31, 2020 | 400 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 32% | 48% | – | 21%[cw] |
| Change Research/CNBC[220] | July 24–26, 2020 | 284 (LV) | ± 5.6% | 40% | 52% | – | 8% |
| Morning Consult[221] | July 17–26, 2020 | 1,504 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 46% | – | 17% |
| Cardinal Point Analytics (R)[222][cx] | July 22–24, 2020 | 735 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 43% | 43% | 1% | 13%[cy] |
| Public Policy Polling[223] | July 22–23, 2020 | 939 (V) | ± 3.2% | 40% | 48% | – | 13%[cz] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[224] | July 19–23, 2020 | 919 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 36% | 47% | – | 16%[da] |
| Marist College/NBC News[225] | July 14–22, 2020 | 882 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 50% | – | 10%[db] |
| Spry Strategies (R)[226][K] | July 11–16, 2020 | 750 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 40% | – | 20%[dc] |
| Cardinal Point Analytics (R)[227] | July 13–15, 2020 | 547 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 44% | 47% | 1% | 7%[dd] |
| Change Research/CNBC[228] | July 10–12, 2020 | 655 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 49% | – | 9%[de] |
| Public Policy Polling[229] | July 7–8, 2020 | 818 (V) | ± 3.4% | 39% | 47% | – | 15%[df] |
| Change Research/CNBC[230] | June 26–28, 2020 | 468 (LV)[as] | ± 3.9% | 41% | 51% | – | 8%[dg] |
| East Carolina University[231] | June 22–25, 2020 | 1,149 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 41% | 41% | – | 18%[dh] |
| Public Policy Polling[232] | June 22–23, 2020 | 1,157 (V) | ± 2.9% | 40% | 44% | – | 16%[di] |
| FOX News[233] | June 20–23, 2020 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 39% | 3% | 20%[dj] |
| NYT Upshot/Siena College[234] | June 8–18, 2020 | 653 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 39% | 42% | – | 19%[dk] |
| Gravis Marketing (R)[235][L] | June 17, 2020 | 631 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 46% | 45% | – | 9% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[236] | June 14–17, 2020 | 902 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 36% | 45% | – | 19%[dl] |
| Public Policy Polling[237] | June 2–3, 2020 | 913 (V) | ± 3.2% | 41% | 43% | – | 16%[di] |
| Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[238] | May 26–28, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 38% | 36% | 3% | 24%[dm] |
| Meeting Street Insights (R)[239][dn] | May 9–13, 2020 | 500 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 44% | 46% | – | 8%[bt] |
| East Carolina University[240] | May 7–9, 2020 | 1,111 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 40% | 41% | – | 19%[do] |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos (D)[241] | May 2–4, 2020 | 1,362 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 50% | – | 9%[dp] |
| Meredith College[242] | April 27–28, 2020 | 604 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 34% | 44% | – | 22% |
| SurveyUSA[243] | April 23–26, 2020 | 580 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 39% | 41% | – | 20%[dq] |
| Public Policy Polling[244] | April 14–15, 2020 | 1,318 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 40% | 47% | – | 13% |
| Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[245] | April 5–7, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 38% | 34% | – | 28% |
| East Carolina University[246] | February 27–28, 2020 | 1,288 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 42% | – | 14% |
| NBC News/Marist[67] | February 23–27, 2020 | 2,120 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 43% | 48% | – | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling[247][M] | February 25–26, 2020[as] | 911 (RV) | – | 41% | 46% | – | 13% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[248][N] | January 11–15, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 44% | – | 8% |
| ALG Research (D)[249][O] | January 8–13, 2020 | 700 (LV) | – | 42% | 44% | – | 13% |
| Meredith College[250] | September 29 – October 7, 2019 | 996 (RV) | ± 3% | 33% | 33% | – | 32% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[251][O] | September 16–17, 2019 | 628 (V) | ± 3.9% | 43% | 45% | – | 12% |
| Fabrizio Ward[252][H] | July 29–31, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 42% | – | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling[253][P] | June 17–18, 2019 | 610 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 41% | – | 19% |
Hypothetical polling
with Erica D. Smith
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Thom Tillis (R) |
Erica D. Smith (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meredith College[250] | September 29 – October 7, 2019 | 996 (RV) | ± 3% | 33% | 34% | 17% |
| Emerson College[254] | May 31 – June 3, 2019 | 932 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 39% | 46% | 15% |
with Generic Democrat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Thom Tillis (R) |
Generic Democrat |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[255][Q] | June 30 – July 1, 2017 | 1,102 (V) | ± 3.6% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
with Thom Tillis and Generic Opponent
with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Generic Republican |
Generic Democrat |
Other/Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipsos/Reuters[194] | September 11–16, 2020 | 586 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 47% | 48% | 5%[dt] |
| Siena College/NYT Upshot[195] | September 11–16, 2020 | 653 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 48% | 44% | 8%[du] |
| Emerson College[213] | August 8–10, 2020 | 673 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 44% | 11%[bj] |
| Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[214] | August 6–10, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 42% | 43% | 16%[dv] |
| Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[238] | May 26–28, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.38% | 43% | 40% | 17%[dw] |
| Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[245] | April 5–7, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 41% | 42% | 17%[dw] |
| Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[238] | Released March 17, 2020 | –[m] | – | 44% | 41% | 15%[dx] |
| Climate Nexus[256] | Feb 11–15, 2020 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
| Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[238] | Released October 17, 2019 | –[m] | – | 40% | 41% | 20%[dy] |
| Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[238] | Released September 11, 2019 | –[m] | – | 37% | 42% | 21%[dz] |
| Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[238] | Released August 4, 2019 | –[m] | – | 39% | 37% | 24%[ea] |
| Fabrizio Ward[252][H] | July 29–31, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 44% | 11%[eb] |
| Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[238] | Released June 10, 2019 | –[m] | – | 38% | 38% | 24%[ec] |
| Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[238] | Released May 5, 2019 | –[m] | – | 39% | 39% | 22%[ed] |
| Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[238] | Released March 17, 2019 | –[m] | – | 37% | 40% | 22%[ee] |
| Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[238] | Released February 13, 2019 | –[m] | – | 37% | 38% | 25%[ef] |
Results
Like many Republican Senate candidates in 2020, Tillis did much better on Election Day than pre-election prediction polling indicated. The senator narrowly defeated Cunningham 48.7 to 46.9 and slightly outperformed President Trump in terms of margin of victory. Tillis's upset victory has been largely attributed to Cunningham's response to his alleged affair as well as Tillis's fierce campaigning during the last few weeks of the campaign.[257]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Thom Tillis (incumbent) | 2,665,598 | 48.69% | −0.13% | |
| Democratic | Cal Cunningham | 2,569,965 | 46.94% | −0.32% | |
| Libertarian | Shannon Bray | 171,571 | 3.13% | −0.61% | |
| Constitution | Kevin E. Hayes | 67,818 | 1.24% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 5,474,952 | 100.00% | |||
| Republican hold | |||||
By county
| County[259] | Thom Tillis Republican |
Cal Cunningham Democratic |
Shannon Bray Libertarian |
Kevin Hayes Constitution |
Margin | Total votes | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Alamance | 44,246 | 51.74 | 38,038 | 44.49 | 2,302 | 2.69 | 922 | 1.08 | 6,208 | 7.26 | 85,508 |
| Alexander | 14,739 | 73.53 | 4,287 | 21.39 | 563 | 2.81 | 455 | 2.27 | 10,452 | 52.15 | 20,044 |
| Alleghany | 4,082 | 67.95 | 1,587 | 26.42 | 192 | 3.20 | 146 | 2.43 | 2,495 | 41.53 | 6,007 |
| Anson | 4,981 | 44.84 | 5,756 | 51.82 | 204 | 1.84 | 167 | 1.50 | -775 | -6.98 | 11,108 |
| Ashe | 10,619 | 67.91 | 4,279 | 27.37 | 457 | 2.92 | 281 | 1.80 | 6,340 | 40.55 | 15,636 |
| Avery | 6,865 | 73.65 | 2,079 | 22.30 | 246 | 2.64 | 131 | 1.41 | 4,786 | 51.35 | 9,321 |
| Beaufort | 15,448 | 59.31 | 9,439 | 36.24 | 706 | 2.71 | 453 | 1.74 | 6,009 | 23.07 | 26,046 |
| Bertie | 3,597 | 37.11 | 5,825 | 60.09 | 158 | 1.63 | 114 | 1.18 | -2,228 | -22.98 | 9,694 |
| Bladen | 8,967 | 53.12 | 7,280 | 43.13 | 399 | 2.36 | 235 | 1.39 | 1,687 | 9.99 | 16,881 |
| Brunswick | 52,971 | 59.38 | 32,180 | 36.08 | 2,881 | 3.23 | 1,170 | 1.31 | 20,791 | 23.31 | 89,202 |
| Buncombe | 60,688 | 37.92 | 92,664 | 57.90 | 5,054 | 3.16 | 1,636 | 1.02 | -31,976 | -19.98 | 160,042 |
| Burke | 28,934 | 65.51 | 13,108 | 29.68 | 1,309 | 2.96 | 819 | 1.85 | 15,826 | 35.83 | 44,170 |
| Cabarrus | 61,231 | 52.74 | 48,886 | 42.11 | 4,261 | 3.67 | 1,724 | 1.48 | 12,345 | 10.63 | 116,102 |
| Caldwell | 29,971 | 70.76 | 10,288 | 24.29 | 1,299 | 3.07 | 799 | 1.89 | 19,683 | 46.47 | 42,357 |
| Camden | 4,181 | 71.62 | 1,403 | 24.03 | 183 | 3.13 | 71 | 1.22 | 2,778 | 47.59 | 5,838 |
| Carteret | 28,492 | 67.47 | 11,823 | 28.00 | 1,312 | 3.11 | 601 | 1.42 | 16,669 | 39.47 | 42,228 |
| Caswell | 6,643 | 55.54 | 4,916 | 41.10 | 278 | 2.32 | 124 | 1.04 | 1,727 | 14.44 | 11,961 |
| Catawba | 54,004 | 65.16 | 24,845 | 29.98 | 2,550 | 3.08 | 1,484 | 1.79 | 29,159 | 35.18 | 82,883 |
| Chatham | 21,039 | 43.52 | 25,697 | 53.16 | 1,171 | 2.42 | 431 | 0.89 | -4,658 | -9.64 | 48,338 |
| Cherokee | 12,048 | 73.98 | 3,589 | 22.04 | 408 | 2.50 | 241 | 1.48 | 8,459 | 51.94 | 16,286 |
| Chowan | 4,353 | 56.61 | 3,124 | 40.63 | 139 | 1.81 | 73 | 0.95 | 1,229 | 15.98 | 7,689 |
| Clay | 4,897 | 71.90 | 1,676 | 24.61 | 140 | 2.05 | 98 | 1.44 | 3,221 | 47.29 | 6,811 |
| Cleveland | 32,022 | 63.06 | 16,752 | 32.99 | 1,235 | 2.43 | 768 | 1.51 | 15,270 | 30.07 | 50,777 |
| Columbus | 15,563 | 59.62 | 9,599 | 36.77 | 516 | 1.98 | 424 | 1.62 | 5,964 | 22.85 | 26,102 |
| Craven | 29,542 | 56.25 | 20,416 | 38.87 | 1,772 | 3.37 | 791 | 1.51 | 9,126 | 17.38 | 52,521 |
| Cumberland | 57,121 | 39.20 | 81,001 | 55.59 | 5,379 | 3.69 | 2,218 | 1.52 | -23,880 | -16.39 | 145,719 |
| Currituck | 11,368 | 71.29 | 3,849 | 24.14 | 554 | 3.47 | 175 | 1.10 | 7,519 | 47.15 | 15,946 |
| Dare | 13,581 | 56.98 | 9,284 | 38.95 | 766 | 3.21 | 204 | 0.86 | 4,297 | 18.03 | 23,835 |
| Davidson | 60,686 | 68.81 | 23,660 | 26.83 | 2,496 | 2.83 | 1,346 | 1.53 | 37,026 | 41.99 | 88,188 |
| Davie | 17,415 | 69.21 | 6,570 | 26.11 | 781 | 3.10 | 396 | 1.57 | 10,845 | 43.10 | 25,162 |
| Duplin | 12,954 | 57.75 | 8,689 | 38.73 | 477 | 2.13 | 312 | 1.39 | 4,265 | 19.01 | 22,432 |
| Durham | 34,152 | 19.20 | 138,429 | 77.40 | 5,041 | 2.82 | 1,224 | 0.68 | -104,277 | -58.30 | 178,846 |
| Edgecombe | 8,582 | 33.90 | 15,952 | 63.01 | 506 | 2.00 | 278 | 1.10 | -7,370 | -29.11 | 25,318 |
| Forsyth | 83,228 | 41.72 | 107,277 | 53.77 | 6,533 | 3.27 | 2,471 | 1.24 | -24,049 | -12.05 | 199,509 |
| Franklin | 19,654 | 52.94 | 15,659 | 42.18 | 1,246 | 3.36 | 565 | 1.52 | 3,995 | 10.76 | 37,124 |
| Gaston | 69,398 | 60.77 | 39,595 | 34.67 | 3,548 | 3.11 | 1,660 | 1.45 | 29,803 | 26.07 | 114,201 |
| Gates | 3,205 | 54.46 | 2,474 | 42.04 | 132 | 2.24 | 74 | 1.26 | 731 | 12.42 | 5,885 |
| Graham | 3,355 | 73.75 | 1,013 | 22.27 | 94 | 2.07 | 87 | 1.91 | 2,342 | 51.48 | 4,549 |
| Granville | 15,687 | 50.02 | 14,368 | 45.82 | 908 | 2.90 | 396 | 1.26 | 1,319 | 4.21 | 31,359 |
| Greene | 4,591 | 52.78 | 3,842 | 44.17 | 189 | 2.17 | 77 | 0.89 | 749 | 8.61 | 8,699 |
| Guilford | 104,908 | 37.18 | 165,823 | 58.77 | 8,587 | 3.04 | 2,819 | 1.00 | -60,915 | -21.59 | 282,137 |
| Halifax | 9,446 | 36.93 | 15,438 | 60.36 | 456 | 1.78 | 237 | 0.93 | -5,992 | -23.43 | 25,577 |
| Harnett | 33,321 | 57.57 | 21,523 | 37.18 | 2,128 | 3.68 | 911 | 1.57 | 11,798 | 20.38 | 57,883 |
| Haywood | 21,502 | 59.26 | 13,113 | 36.14 | 1,081 | 2.98 | 587 | 1.62 | 8,389 | 23.12 | 36,283 |
| Henderson | 39,359 | 57.99 | 25,782 | 37.99 | 1,964 | 2.89 | 768 | 1.13 | 13,577 | 20.00 | 67,873 |
| Hertford | 3,305 | 31.80 | 6,815 | 65.58 | 154 | 1.48 | 118 | 1.14 | -3,510 | -33.78 | 10,392 |
| Hoke | 8,638 | 40.40 | 11,466 | 53.62 | 909 | 4.25 | 370 | 1.73 | -2,828 | -13.22 | 21,383 |
| Hyde | 1,315 | 53.26 | 1,075 | 43.54 | 53 | 2.15 | 26 | 1.05 | 240 | 9.72 | 2,469 |
| Iredell | 64,319 | 63.44 | 31,893 | 31.46 | 3,487 | 3.44 | 1,687 | 1.66 | 32,426 | 31.98 | 101,386 |
| Jackson | 10,763 | 50.68 | 9,382 | 44.17 | 788 | 3.71 | 306 | 1.44 | 1,381 | 6.50 | 21,239 |
| Johnston | 64,822 | 58.82 | 39,771 | 36.09 | 3,953 | 3.59 | 1,667 | 1.51 | 25,051 | 22.73 | 110,213 |
| Jones | 3,046 | 55.85 | 2,124 | 38.94 | 182 | 3.34 | 102 | 1.87 | 922 | 16.91 | 5,454 |
| Lee | 15,419 | 53.70 | 11,851 | 41.27 | 979 | 3.41 | 465 | 1.62 | 3,568 | 12.43 | 28,714 |
| Lenoir | 13,898 | 49.43 | 13,284 | 47.24 | 591 | 2.10 | 346 | 1.23 | 614 | 2.18 | 28,119 |
| Lincoln | 34,673 | 69.66 | 12,858 | 25.83 | 1,482 | 2.98 | 763 | 1.53 | 21,815 | 43.83 | 49,776 |
| Macon | 13,408 | 65.35 | 6,248 | 30.45 | 521 | 2.54 | 340 | 1.66 | 7,160 | 34.90 | 20,517 |
| Madison | 7,399 | 57.17 | 4,987 | 38.53 | 362 | 2.80 | 195 | 1.51 | 2,412 | 18.64 | 12,943 |
| Martin | 6,034 | 48.57 | 5,973 | 48.08 | 257 | 2.07 | 160 | 1.29 | 61 | 0.49 | 12,424 |
| McDowell | 15,894 | 69.87 | 5,934 | 26.09 | 565 | 2.48 | 354 | 1.56 | 9,960 | 43.79 | 22,747 |
| Mecklenburg | 186,693 | 33.18 | 350,775 | 62.34 | 19,764 | 3.51 | 5,440 | 0.97 | -164,082 | -29.16 | 562,672 |
| Mitchell | 6,735 | 75.32 | 1,919 | 21.46 | 181 | 2.02 | 107 | 1.20 | 4,816 | 53.86 | 8,942 |
| Montgomery | 7,741 | 60.95 | 4,379 | 34.48 | 324 | 2.55 | 256 | 2.02 | 3,362 | 26.47 | 12,700 |
| Moore | 35,682 | 61.71 | 19,633 | 33.95 | 1,760 | 3.04 | 748 | 1.29 | 16,049 | 27.76 | 57,823 |
| Nash | 24,719 | 47.63 | 25,474 | 49.09 | 1,117 | 2.15 | 585 | 1.13 | -755 | -1.46 | 51,895 |
| New Hanover | 61,415 | 47.13 | 61,702 | 47.35 | 5,516 | 4.23 | 1,685 | 1.29 | -287 | -0.22 | 130,318 |
| Northampton | 3,720 | 37.16 | 6,005 | 59.98 | 187 | 1.87 | 99 | 0.99 | -2,285 | -22.82 | 10,011 |
| Onslow | 42,868 | 60.21 | 23,344 | 32.79 | 3,627 | 5.09 | 1,363 | 1.91 | 19,524 | 27.42 | 71,202 |
| Orange | 20,862 | 24.68 | 61,214 | 72.42 | 1,961 | 2.32 | 488 | 0.58 | -40,352 | -47.74 | 84,525 |
| Pamlico | 4,589 | 60.53 | 2,681 | 35.36 | 188 | 2.48 | 123 | 1.62 | 1,908 | 25.17 | 7,581 |
| Pasquotank | 9,491 | 48.31 | 9,421 | 47.95 | 538 | 2.74 | 198 | 1.01 | 70 | 0.36 | 19,648 |
| Pender | 20,660 | 61.20 | 11,272 | 33.39 | 1,274 | 3.77 | 553 | 1.64 | 9,388 | 27.81 | 33,759 |
| Perquimans | 4,817 | 64.87 | 2,382 | 32.08 | 139 | 1.87 | 88 | 1.19 | 2,435 | 32.79 | 7,426 |
| Person | 12,192 | 56.49 | 8,475 | 39.27 | 600 | 2.78 | 315 | 1.46 | 3,717 | 17.22 | 21,582 |
| Pitt | 37,947 | 43.67 | 45,598 | 52.47 | 2,510 | 2.89 | 846 | 0.97 | -7,651 | -8.80 | 86,901 |
| Polk | 7,394 | 60.35 | 4,436 | 36.21 | 286 | 2.33 | 136 | 1.11 | 2,958 | 24.14 | 12,252 |
| Randolph | 53,357 | 73.52 | 15,973 | 22.01 | 2,097 | 2.89 | 1,143 | 1.58 | 37,384 | 51.51 | 72,570 |
| Richmond | 11,002 | 53.85 | 8,510 | 41.65 | 566 | 2.77 | 352 | 1.72 | 2,492 | 12.20 | 20,430 |
| Robeson | 25,211 | 54.87 | 19,135 | 41.64 | 955 | 2.08 | 648 | 1.41 | 6,076 | 13.22 | 45,949 |
| Rockingham | 28,971 | 61.23 | 16,189 | 34.22 | 1,473 | 3.11 | 680 | 1.44 | 12,782 | 27.02 | 47,313 |
| Rowan | 46,446 | 63.84 | 22,615 | 31.09 | 2,254 | 3.10 | 1,433 | 1.97 | 23,831 | 32.76 | 72,748 |
| Rutherford | 23,596 | 69.26 | 9,136 | 26.82 | 781 | 2.29 | 554 | 1.63 | 14,460 | 42.45 | 34,067 |
| Sampson | 16,521 | 58.25 | 10,818 | 38.15 | 636 | 2.24 | 385 | 1.36 | 5,703 | 20.11 | 28,360 |
| Scotland | 7,066 | 48.86 | 6,850 | 47.37 | 322 | 2.23 | 223 | 1.54 | 216 | 1.49 | 14,461 |
| Stanly | 23,891 | 71.17 | 8,045 | 23.96 | 961 | 2.86 | 674 | 2.01 | 15,846 | 47.20 | 33,571 |
| Stokes | 18,599 | 72.99 | 5,611 | 22.02 | 812 | 3.19 | 458 | 1.80 | 12,988 | 50.97 | 25,480 |
| Surry | 25,475 | 70.17 | 9,267 | 25.53 | 1,030 | 2.84 | 531 | 1.46 | 16,208 | 44.65 | 36,303 |
| Swain | 3,846 | 55.17 | 2,696 | 38.67 | 298 | 4.27 | 131 | 1.88 | 1,150 | 16.50 | 6,971 |
| Transylvania | 11,209 | 55.48 | 8,158 | 40.38 | 552 | 2.73 | 286 | 1.42 | 3,051 | 15.10 | 20,205 |
| Tyrrell | 945 | 52.97 | 778 | 43.61 | 37 | 2.07 | 24 | 1.35 | 167 | 9.36 | 1,784 |
| Union | 79,645 | 61.34 | 45,096 | 34.73 | 3,765 | 2.90 | 1,338 | 1.03 | 34,549 | 26.61 | 129,844 |
| Vance | 7,876 | 37.84 | 12,247 | 58.84 | 455 | 2.19 | 237 | 1.14 | -4,371 | -21.00 | 20,815 |
| Wake | 232,388 | 37.05 | 367,718 | 58.63 | 22,230 | 3.54 | 4,893 | 0.78 | -135,330 | -21.58 | 627,229 |
| Warren | 3,520 | 34.30 | 6,437 | 62.72 | 194 | 1.89 | 112 | 1.09 | -2,917 | -28.42 | 10,263 |
| Washington | 2,584 | 42.05 | 3,329 | 54.17 | 128 | 2.08 | 104 | 1.69 | -745 | -12.12 | 6,145 |
| Watauga | 14,216 | 44.59 | 16,193 | 50.80 | 1,138 | 3.57 | 331 | 1.04 | -1,977 | -6.20 | 31,878 |
| Wayne | 29,174 | 53.10 | 23,528 | 42.82 | 1,419 | 2.58 | 823 | 1.50 | 5,646 | 10.28 | 54,944 |
| Wilkes | 25,488 | 72.67 | 8,074 | 23.02 | 924 | 2.64 | 587 | 1.67 | 17,414 | 49.65 | 35,073 |
| Wilson | 18,642 | 46.13 | 20,445 | 50.59 | 885 | 2.19 | 439 | 1.09 | -1,803 | -4.46 | 40,411 |
| Yadkin | 14,798 | 74.86 | 4,036 | 20.42 | 553 | 2.80 | 381 | 1.93 | 10,762 | 54.44 | 19,768 |
| Yancey | 7,038 | 62.39 | 3,833 | 33.98 | 250 | 2.22 | 159 | 1.41 | 3,205 | 28.41 | 11,280 |
| Totals | 2,665,598 | 48.69 | 2,569,965 | 46.94 | 171,571 | 3.13 | 67,818 | 1.24 | 95,633 | 1.75 | 5,474,952 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Bladen (largest municipality: Elizabethtown)
- Gates (largest municipality: Gatesville)
- Granville (largest municipality: Oxford)
- Hyde (largest municipality: Ocracoke)
- Jackson (largest municipality: Cullowhee)
- Lenoir (largest municipality: Kinston)
- Martin (largest municipality: Williamston)
- Pasquotank (largest municipality: Elizabeth City)
- Richmond (largest municipality: Rockingham)
- Robeson (largest municipality: Lumberton)
- Scotland (largest municipality: Laurinburg)
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Nash (largest municipality: Rocky Mount)
- New Hanover (largest municipality: Wilmington)
- Watauga (largest municipality: Boone)
By congressional district
Tillis won eight of 13 congressional districts.[260]
| District | Tillis | Cunningham | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 43% | 53% | G. K. Butterfield |
| 2nd | 35% | 60% | George Holding |
| Deborah K. Ross | |||
| 3rd | 59% | 37% | Greg Murphy |
| 4th | 32% | 64% | David Price |
| 5th | 64% | 31% | Virginia Foxx |
| 6th | 37% | 59% | Mark Walker |
| Kathy Manning | |||
| 7th | 56% | 39% | David Rouzer |
| 8th | 50% | 44% | Richard Hudson |
| 9th | 53% | 43% | Dan Bishop |
| 10th | 64% | 31% | Patrick McHenry |
| 11th | 53% | 42% | Madison Cawthorn |
| 12th | 29% | 66% | Alma Adams |
| 13th | 64% | 32% | Ted Budd |
See also
Notes
Partisan clients
- Poll sponsored by the Garland Tucker campaign
- Poll conducted by the Club for Growth, a pro-Republican PAC
- Compete Everywhere primarily supports Democratic candidates
- Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organization.
- Poll sponsored by The American Greatness PAC, which is pro-Trump.
- Poll sponsored by Piedmont Rising, a pro-Affordable Care Act organization.
- Poll sponsored by The Human Rights Campaign, which has endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period.
- This poll's sponsor had endorsed Cunningham prior to the sampling period
- This poll’s sponsor, DFER, primarily supports Democratic candidates
- This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
- Poll sponsored by private client
- Internal poll
- Poll sponsored by End Citizens United, an organization that has exclusively endorsed Democratic candidates
- Poll sponsored by VoteVets.org
- Poll sponsored by Save My Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organization
Voter samples and additional candidates
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Hudson with 8%; Holmquist with 5%
- Holmquist and Hudson with 5%
- Holmquist and Hudson with 3%
- Holmquist and Hudson with 4%
- Holmquist with 3%; Hudson with 2%
- Hudson with 3%; Holmquist with 2%
- If the only candidates were Smith and Tillis
- "None of the above" with 5%; "other" with 0%
- If the only candidates were Tillis and Tucker
- Standard VI response
- Response after pollster addresses respondents with talking points about Tillis
- Not yet released
- Response after pollster addresses respondents with short biographies for Tillis and Walker
- Response after short biographies and talking points about Tillis
- Listed as "would consider another candidate in a Republican primary"
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- "Refused" with 2%; Did not vote, would not vote and Undecided with 1%
- "Some other candidate" with 4%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 2%
- Hayes (C) with 1%; "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
- Hayes (C) with 2%
- With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- "Someone else" with 2%
- Hayes (C) and Undecided with 2%; "None of these" with 1%; "Other" with 0%
- "Some other candidate" with 3%; Undecided with 6%
- "Some other candidate" with 3%; "Refused" with 2%; Did/would not vote with 0%; Undecided with no voters
- Hayes (C) with 2%; Undecided with 6%
- "Other" and Undecided with 2%
- Undecided with 9%
- Would not vote with 2%; Hayes (C) with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
- "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 1%
- Archived November 1, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
- "Someoene else" with 4%; Undecided with 5%
- Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
- Results generated with high Republican turnout model
- "Other" with 3%; Undecided with 4%
- Did not vote with 1%; "Another candidate" with no voters; Undecided with 6%
- Hays (C) with 1%; Undecided with 7%
- "Someone else" with 3%; Undecided with 5%
- Hayes (C) with 1%; Undecided with 2%
- "Some other candidate" with 4%; Undecided with 6%
- "Other" with 3%; Undecided with 6%
- "Some other candidate" and "Undecided/Refused" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
- Hayes (C) with 1%; Undecided with 14%
- Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- Hayes (C) with 1%; Undecided with 10%
- Did/would not vote and "Some other candidate" with 1%; "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 3%
- "Neither" with 1%; "Other" and would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 3%
- Undecided with 12%
- Hayes (C) with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 2%
- Hayes (C) with 3%; would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 15%
- "Some other candidate" with 5%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 7%
- "No one" with 1%; Hayes (C) with 0%; "Other candidate" with no voters; Undecided with 3%
- With a likely voter turnout model featuring high turnout
- "Other" and Undecided with 3%
- With a likely voter turnout model featuring low turnout
- "Some other candidate" with 3%; Undecided with 8%
- "Other" and "Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 7%
- Archived October 14, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
- "Some other candidate" with 3%; Undecided with 12%
- "Some other candidate" with 4%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 7%
- Undecided with 11%
- Hayes (C) with 1%; Undecided with 8%
- Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 3%
- "Some other candidate" with 3%; "Refused" and would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 2%
- "Someone else" with 3%; Undecided with 11%
- "Another candidate" with 1%; Undecided with 7%
- Hayes (C) with 1%; Undecided with 12%
- Would not vote with 2%; "Don't recall" with 0%; Undecided with 7%
- Bray (L) with 2%; Undecided with 13%
- Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- Undecided with 8%
- "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 6%
- Hayes (C), "Someone else" and would not vote with 1%; "Undecided/Refused" with 16%
- "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 4%; Undecided with 9%
- Bray (L) with 6%; Hayes (C) and "Other" with 2%; "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 11%
- "Another candidate" with 3%; Undecided with 10%
- Hayes (C) with 1%; "None of these" and "Other" with no voters; Undecided with 3%
- Hayes (C) with 1%; "None of these" and "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 5%
- "Neither/Another Party" with 3%; "Undecided/Don't know/Refused" with 19%
- Hayes (C) with 1%; Undecided with 5%
- "Another candidate" with 3%; Undecided with 7%
- Hayes with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 12%
- Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 4%
- "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 3%; Undecided with 13%
- Hayes (C) and "No one" with 1%; "Other candidate" with <1%; Undecided with 5%
- With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
- "Other" and Undecided with 4%
- With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
- Hayes (C), "Other" and would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 5%
- Hayes (C) with 2%; "Other" and would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 6%
- "Some other candidate" with 3%; Would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 9%
- Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 5%
- "Third party/write-in" with 3%; Undecided with 13%
- "Some other candidate" with 5%; would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 10%
- Undecided with 14%
- Hayes (C) with 2%; Undecided with 16%
- Would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 8%
- "No one" with 10%
- "Someone else" with 3%; Undecided with 9%
- "Third party candidate" with 4%; would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 15%
- Archived July 30, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
- Hayes (C) with 2%; Undecided with 11%
- Undecided with 13%
- "Third party/write-in" with 2%; Undecided with 14%
- "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 9%
- "Another candidate" with 6%; Undecided with 13%
- Hayes (C) with 1%; Undecided with 6%
- Undecided with 7%; would not vote with 2%
- Undecided with 15%
- Undecided with 7%; would not vote with 1%
- Undecided with 10%; "Some other candidate" with 8%
- Undecided with 16%
- Undecided with 15%; Hayes (C) with 3%; "other" and would not vote with 1%
- Undecided with 17%; "Another candidate" and would not vote with 1%
- Undecided with 16%; "Another third party/write in" with 3%
- Hayes (C) with 2%; Undecided with 21%
- Archived June 5, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
- Undecided with 11%; "other candidate" with 8%
- Undecided with 5%; "Someone else" with 4%
- Undecided with 20%
- "It is time to give a new person a chance to do better" with 50% as opposed to "Thillis has performed his job as U.S. Senator well enough to deserve re-election"
- "Refused" with 3%
- "Prefer not to answer/Refused" with 4%; "Candidate from another political party" with 1%; "Will not vote/not sure" with 0%
- "Undecided/Refused" with 8%
- "Neither" and "Other Party" with 1%; Undecided with 14%
- Undecided with 14%; "Neither/other/independent" with 3%
- Undecided with 11%; "Neither/other/independent" with 4%
- Undecided with 17%; "Neither/other/independent" with 3%
- Undecided with 16%; "Neither/other/independent" with 5%
- Undecided with 19%; "Neither/other/independent" with 5%
- "Undecided" with 8%; "don't know/refused" with 3%
- Undecided with 18%; "Neither/other/independent" with 6%
- Undecided with 17%; "Neither/other/independent" with 5%
- Undecided with 15%; "Neither/other/independent" with 7%
- Undecided with 21%; "Neither/other/independent" with 4%