2020 United States presidential election in Kansas

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The 2020 United States presidential election in Kansas was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Kansas voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump of Florida, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence of Indiana against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden of Delaware, and his running mate Senator Kamala Harris of California. Kansas has six electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

Quick facts Turnout, Nominee ...
2020 United States presidential election in Kansas
← 2016
November 3, 2020
2024 →
Turnout65.9%[1] Increase
 
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Electoral vote 6 0
Popular vote 771,406 570,323
Percentage 56.14% 41.51%
President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

 Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Close

Although Trump won the state, Biden's 41.51 percent vote share represented the highest for a Democratic presidential nominee since Barack Obama's performance in 2008 and among the strongest swings to Biden, relative to Hillary Clinton's performance in 2016, in the nation. His 14.63-point defeat represented the first time since 1916, and only the second time ever, that Kansas voted more Democratic than neighboring Missouri, where his margin of defeat was 15.39 points. This trend repeated in 2024, with Kamala Harris's 16 point defeat in Kansas less than her 18.4 point defeat in Missouri.

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in Kansas came from white voters, who supported Trump by 59%–38%; white voters with college degrees, however, were tied. This result included a 64% showing for Trump among Protestants and a 74% showing among other Christians. Trump's best margin was 72% in rural areas, while Biden's was 52% in suburban counties.[4]

Primary elections

Canceled Republican primary

Further information: 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries § Cancellation of state caucuses or primaries

On September 7, 2019, the Kansas Republican Party became one of several state GOP parties to cancel their respective primaries and caucuses officially.[5] Donald Trump's re-election campaign and GOP officials have cited the fact that Republicans canceled several state primaries when George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush sought a second term in 1992 and 2004, respectively; and Democrats scrapped some of their primaries when Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were seeking reelection in 1996 and 2012, respectively.[6][7] At its state convention held between January 31 and February 1, 2020, the state party voted to formally bind all 39 of its national pledged delegates to Trump.[8][9]

Democratic primary

Further information: 2020 Kansas Democratic presidential primary

The Kansas Democratic primary was conducted entirely by mail. Votes were counted on May 2, 2020. Joe Biden was declared the winner.[10]

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Kansas Democratic presidential primary § KSresults.[edit]
More information Candidate, Votes ...
2020 Kansas Democratic presidential primary final results[11]
Candidate Votes % Delegates
Joe Biden 110,041 74.92 29
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn) 33,142 22.57 10
Inactive votes[a] 3,690 2.51
Total 146,873 100% 39
Close

General election

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[12] Likely R September 10, 2020
Inside Elections[13] Lean R September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] Likely R July 14, 2020
Politico[15] Likely R October 16, 2020
RCP[16] Safe R August 3, 2020
Niskanen[17] Safe R July 26, 2020
CNN[18] Safe R August 3, 2020
The Economist[19] Safe R September 2, 2020
CBS News[20] Likely R August 16, 2020
270towin[21] Safe R August 2, 2020
ABC News[22] Safe R July 31, 2020
NPR[23] Likely R August 3, 2020
NBC News[24] Likely R August 6, 2020
538[25] Safe R November 2, 2020
Close

Polling

%support01020304050602/6/20208/9/202010/1/202011/2/2020TrumpBidenJorgensenHawkinsOther/UndecidedOpinion polling for the 2020 United States p...
View source data.

Aggregate polls

More information Source of poll aggregation, Dates administered ...
Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Other/
Undecided
[b]		 Margin
270 to Win[26] October 17–22, 2020 November 3, 2020 43.0% 51.7% 5.3% Trump +8.7
FiveThirtyEight[27] until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 41.0% 53.9% 5.1% Trump +12.9
Average 42.0% 52.8% 5.2% Trump +10.8
Close

Polls

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[c]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian		 Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios[28] Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 2,321 (LV) ± 3% 55%[d] 44% – – –
Data For Progress[29] Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 1,121 (LV) ± 2.9% 55% 41% 3% 2%[e] –
SurveyMonkey/Axios[28] Oct 1–28, 2020 3,442 (LV) ± 2.5% 51% 47% – – –
PPP/Protect Our Care[30][A] Oct 19–20, 2020 897 (V) ± 3.3% 54% 42% – – 4%
Siena College/NYT Upshot[31] Oct 18–20, 2020 755 (LV) ± 4% 48% 41% 4% 2%[f] 6%[g]
co/efficient/Keep Kansas Great PAC[32][B] Oct 18–20, 2020 2,453 (LV) ± 3.7% 56% 39% 2% – 3%
Fort Hays State University[33] Sep 21 – Oct 1, 2020 306 (RV) ± 4.8% 52% 38% – 11%[h] –
SurveyMonkey/Axios[28] Sep 1–30, 2020 1,135 (LV) – 52% 47% – – 1%
Civiqs/Daily Kos[34] Sep 26–29, 2020 677 (LV) ± 4.5% 52% 42% – 4%[i] 1%
Data For Progress (D)[35] Sep 14–19, 2020 883 (LV) ± 3.3% 48%[j] 42% 3% 1%[k] 7%
49%[l] 45% – – 6%
co/efficient/Keep Kansas Great PAC[36][B] Sep 15–16, 2020 794 (LV) ± 3.5% 53% 41% – – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios[28] Aug 1–31, 2020 922 (LV) – 54% 45% – – 1%
SurveyUSA[37] Aug 5–9, 2020 1,202 (LV) ± 3.3% 48% 41% – 5%[m] 6%
Public Policy Polling[38][C] Aug 5–6, 2020 864 (V) ± 3.3% 50% 43% – – 7%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[28] Jul 1–31, 2020 1,295 (LV) – 51% 47% – – 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[28] Jun 8–30, 2020 466 (LV) – 53% 45% – – 2%
Civiqs/Daily Kos[39] May 30 – Jun 1, 2020 699 (RV) ± 4.2% 52% 40% – 6%[n] 2%
The Progress Campaign (D)[40] Apr 15–22, 2020 1,632 (LV) ± 4.7% 51% 41% – – 8%
Public Policy Polling[41] Mar 10–11, 2020 1,567 (V) – 52% 40% – – 8%
DFM Research[42] Jan 30 – Feb 6, 2020 600 (A) ±4% 51% 43% – 3%[o] 3%
Close
More information Former candidates, Poll source ...
Close

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
2020 United States presidential election in Kansas[44][45]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence 		771,406 56.14% +0.11%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris		 570,323 41.51% +5.85%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen		 30,574 2.23% −2.40%
Green Howie Hawkins (write-in)
Angela Walker (write-in)		 669 0.05% −1.91%
American Solidarity Brian Carroll (write-in)
Amar Patel (write-in)		 579 0.04% N/A
Independent Kanye West (write-in)
Michelle Tidball (write-in)		 332 0.02% N/A
Write-in 103 0.01% N/A
Total votes 1,373,986 100%
Close

By county

More information County, Donald Trump Republican ...
County[46] Donald Trump
Republican		 Joe Biden
Democratic		 Various candidates
Other parties		 Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Allen 4,218 71.59% 1,570 26.65% 104 1.77% 2,648 44.94% 5,892
Anderson 2,929 77.24% 782 20.62% 81 2.14% 2,147 56.62% 3,792
Atchison 4,906 65.94% 2,359 31.71% 175 2.35% 2,547 34.23% 7,440
Barber 2,014 85.99% 291 12.43% 37 1.58% 1,723 73.57% 2,342
Barton 8,608 77.20% 2,340 20.99% 202 1.64% 6,288 56.21% 11,130
Bourbon 5,023 75.24% 1,541 23.08% 112 1.68% 3,482 52.16% 6,676
Brown 3,262 72.96% 1,104 24.69% 105 2.35% 2,158 48.27% 4,471
Butler 22,634 69.60% 9,181 28.23% 705 2.17% 13,453 41.37% 32,520
Chase 1,123 75.32% 345 23.14% 23 1.54% 778 52.18% 1,491
Chautauqua 1,402 85.28% 212 12.90% 30 1.82% 1,190 72.38% 1,644
Cherokee 6,766 73.94% 2,194 23.98% 191 2.09% 4,572 49.96% 9,151
Cheyenne 1,183 82.79% 224 15.68% 22 1.54% 959 67.11% 1,429
Clark 904 84.72% 143 13.40% 20 1.87% 761 71.32% 1,067
Clay 3,177 75.97% 894 21.38% 111 2.65% 2,283 54.59% 4,182
Cloud 3,242 76.05% 920 21.58% 101 2.37% 2,322 54.47% 4,263
Coffey 3,489 76.43% 964 21.12% 112 2.45% 2,525 55.31% 4,565
Comanche 762 83.19% 126 13.76% 28 3.06% 636 69.43% 916
Cowley 9,656 67.85% 4,273 30.03% 302 2.12% 5,383 37.83% 14,231
Crawford 10,045 60.08% 6,179 36.96% 494 2.95% 3,866 23.12% 16,718
Decatur 1,260 84.11% 218 14.55% 20 1.34% 1,042 69.56% 1,498
Dickinson 7,126 76.22% 2,060 22.03% 163 1.74% 5,066 54.19% 9,349
Doniphan 2,976 80.24% 686 18.50% 47 1.27% 2,290 61.74% 3,709
Douglas 17,286 28.84% 40,785 68.04% 1,870 3.12% -23,499 -39.20% 59,941
Edwards 1,141 79.73% 271 18.94% 19 1.33% 870 60.80% 1,431
Elk 1,140 83.76% 195 14.33% 26 1.91% 945 69.43% 1,361
Ellis 9,758 70.42% 3,737 26.97% 361 2.61% 6,021 43.45% 13,856
Ellsworth 2,148 75.29% 648 22.71% 57 2.00% 1,500 52.58% 2,853
Finney 7,236 61.08% 4,325 36.51% 285 2.41% 2,911 24.57% 11,846
Ford 5,803 65.09% 2,947 33.06% 165 1.85% 2,856 32.04% 8,915
Franklin 8,479 67.96% 3,690 29.57% 308 2.47% 4,789 38.38% 12,477
Geary 5,323 55.43% 3,983 41.48% 297 3.09% 1,340 13.95% 9,603
Gove 1,291 87.76% 166 11.28% 14 0.95% 1,125 76.48% 1,471
Graham 1,080 80.78% 228 17.05% 29 2.17% 852 63.72% 1,337
Grant 1,936 77.41% 518 20.71% 47 1.88% 1,418 56.70% 2,501
Gray 1,911 83.52% 341 14.90% 36 1.57% 1,570 68.62% 2,288
Greeley 549 85.65% 78 12.17% 14 2.18% 471 73.48% 641
Greenwood 2,444 79.43% 569 18.49% 64 2.08% 1,875 60.94% 3,077
Hamilton 698 81.26% 141 16.41% 20 2.33% 557 64.84% 859
Harper 2,168 80.96% 461 17.21% 49 1.83% 1,707 63.74% 2,678
Harvey 10,182 58.52% 6,747 38.78% 470 2.70% 3,435 19.74% 17,399
Haskell 1,122 79.57% 268 19.01% 20 1.42% 854 60.57% 1,410
Hodgeman 875 83.73% 154 14.74% 16 1.53% 721 69.00% 1,045
Jackson 4,517 68.61% 1,881 28.57% 186 2.83% 2,636 40.04% 6,584
Jefferson 6,334 64.75% 3,194 32.65% 254 2.60% 3,140 32.10% 9,782
Jewell 1,387 85.20% 212 13.02% 29 1.78% 1,175 72.17% 1,628
Johnson 155,631 44.54% 184,259 52.74% 9,496 2.72% -28,628 -8.20% 349,386
Kearny 1,164 80.00% 267 18.35% 24 1.65% 897 61.65% 1,455
Kingman 3,130 79.26% 752 19.04% 67 1.70% 2,378 60.22% 3,949
Kiowa 980 84.12% 156 13.39% 29 2.49% 824 70.73% 1,165
Labette 5,735 66.97% 2,655 31.01% 173 2.02% 3,080 35.97% 8,563
Lane 762 85.14% 115 12.85% 18 2.01% 647 72.29% 895
Leavenworth 21,610 59.22% 13,886 38.05% 994 2.72% 7,724 21.17% 36,490
Lincoln 1,283 81.25% 266 16.85% 30 1.90% 1,017 64.41% 1,579
Linn 4,048 80.22% 896 17.76% 102 2.02% 3,152 62.47% 5,046
Logan 1,249 85.67% 186 12.76% 23 1.58% 1,063 72.91% 1,458
Lyon 7,550 53.74% 6,055 43.10% 444 3.16% 1,495 10.64% 14,049
Marion 4,465 73.06% 1,516 24.81% 130 2.13% 2,949 48.26% 6,111
Marshall 3,729 72.92% 1,259 24.62% 126 2.46% 2,470 48.30% 5,114
McPherson 9,964 69.01% 4,134 28.63% 340 2.35% 5,830 40.38% 14,438
Meade 1,523 83.45% 263 14.41% 39 2.14% 1,260 69.04% 1,825
Miami 12,308 68.42% 5,247 29.17% 434 2.41% 7,061 39.25% 17,989
Mitchell 2,504 80.75% 558 17.99% 39 1.26% 1,946 62.75% 3,101
Montgomery 9,931 73.97% 3,228 24.04% 267 1.99% 6,703 49.93% 13,426
Morris 2,124 73.27% 729 25.15% 46 1.59% 1,395 48.12% 2,899
Morton 1,034 86.31% 150 12.52% 14 1.17% 884 73.79% 1,198
Nemaha 4,664 82.05% 927 16.31% 93 1.64% 3,737 65.75% 5,684
Neosho 4,970 72.27% 1,796 26.12% 111 1.61% 3,174 46.15% 6,877
Ness 1,339 88.50% 149 9.85% 25 1.65% 1,190 78.65% 1,513
Norton 2,007 83.11% 364 15.07% 44 1.82% 1,643 68.03% 2,415
Osage 5,705 71.00% 2,136 26.58% 194 2.41% 3,569 44.42% 8,035
Osborne 1,629 83.75% 281 14.45% 35 1.80% 1,348 69.31% 1,945
Ottawa 2,610 81.79% 506 15.86% 75 2.35% 2,104 65.94% 3,191
Pawnee 2,045 74.66% 643 23.48% 51 1.86% 1,402 51.19% 2,739
Phillips 2,418 86.95% 318 11.43% 45 1.62% 2,100 75.51% 2,781
Pottawatomie 9,452 72.25% 3,313 25.32% 318 2.43% 6,139 46.92% 13,083
Pratt 3,108 75.13% 933 22.55% 96 2.32% 2,175 52.57% 4,137
Rawlins 1,261 83.84% 214 14.23% 29 1.93% 1,047 69.61% 1,504
Reno 18,443 65.73% 8,886 31.67% 731 2.61% 9,557 34.06% 28,060
Republic 2,182 82.12% 424 15.96% 51 1.92% 1,758 66.16% 2,657
Rice 3,262 75.53% 965 22.34% 92 2.13% 2,297 53.18% 4,319
Riley 11,610 46.12% 12,765 50.71% 796 3.16% -1,155 -4.59% 25,171
Rooks 2,325 86.14% 339 12.56% 35 1.30% 1,986 73.58% 2,699
Rush 1,350 80.50% 295 17.59% 32 1.91% 1,055 62.91% 1,677
Russell 2,790 80.47% 600 17.31% 77 2.22% 2,190 63.17% 3,467
Saline 15,722 63.85% 8,214 33.36% 688 2.79% 7,508 30.49% 24,624
Scott 2,014 85.56% 299 12.70% 41 1.74% 1,715 72.85% 2,354
Sedgwick 122,416 54.44% 95,870 42.64% 6,576 2.92% 26,546 11.80% 224,862
Seward 3,372 63.69% 1,833 34.62% 89 1.68% 1,539 29.07% 5,294
Shawnee 40,443 46.96% 43,015 49.95% 2,664 3.09% -2,572 -2.99% 86,122
Sheridan 1,282 88.72% 147 10.17% 16 1.11% 1,135 78.55% 1,445
Sherman 2,269 83.20% 396 14.52% 62 2.27% 1,873 68.68% 2,727
Smith 1,763 82.81% 336 15.78% 30 1.41% 1,427 67.03% 2,129
Stafford 1,645 80.88% 357 17.55% 32 1.57% 1,288 63.32% 2,034
Stanton 614 79.12% 148 19.07% 14 1.80% 466 60.05% 776
Stevens 1,760 86.66% 237 11.67% 34 1.67% 1,523 74.99% 2,031
Sumner 8,105 74.17% 2,591 23.71% 232 2.12% 5,514 50.46% 10,928
Thomas 3,130 82.15% 625 16.40% 55 1.44% 2,505 65.75% 3,810
Trego 1,363 83.62% 242 14.85% 25 1.53% 1,121 68.77% 1,630
Wabaunsee 2,845 72.91% 964 24.71% 93 2.38% 1,881 48.21% 3,902
Wallace 770 93.33% 44 5.33% 11 1.33% 726 88.00% 825
Washington 2,363 81.96% 475 16.48% 45 1.56% 1,888 65.49% 2,883
Wichita 808 83.47% 149 15.39% 11 1.14% 659 68.08% 968
Wilson 3,153 79.74% 723 18.29% 78 1.97% 2,430 61.46% 3,954
Woodson 1,228 79.43% 294 19.02% 24 1.55% 934 60.41% 1,546
Wyandotte 18,934 33.18% 36,788 64.46% 1,349 2.36% -17,854 -31.28% 57,071
Totals771,40656.00%570,32341.40%35,7552.60%201,08314.60%1,377,484
Close

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Trump won three of Kansas' four congressional districts.[48]

More information District, Trump ...
District Trump Biden Representative
1st 69.7% 28.1% Roger Marshall
Tracey Mann
2nd 56.3% 41.3% Steve Watkins
Jake LaTurner
3rd 43.7% 54.3% Sharice Davids
4th 59.7% 38% Ron Estes
Close

Analysis

Biden's gains relative to Hillary Clinton were powered by significant improvement in Kansas' suburbs and college towns: he became the first Democrat to carry Johnson County, the state's most populous and home to Overland Park and Olathe, since Woodrow Wilson in 1916.[49] It was also the first since 1896 that Democrats received a majority in the county. Biden was also the first Democrat ever to win Riley County, anchored by the Fort Riley military installation and Kansas State University;[50] and the first to win Shawnee County, home to the state capital of Topeka, since Bill Clinton's narrow plurality in 1992.[51]

While he failed to break the 56-year Republican winning streak in Sedgwick County, the second most populous in the state and home to the state's largest city Wichita, his 42.9 percent of the vote there was the strongest for a Democrat since Jimmy Carter received 46.5 percent of the vote in 1976.[52] Biden would also build upon Hillary Clinton's share (32.31%) and even break Carter's record at Seward County of 33.96%. At 34.62%, this was the highest percentage of votes a Democratic presidential candidate has won in the county since Lyndon B. Johnson won 46.14% in 1964. This was also the first election since the three-way contest of 1992 in which a Democratic candidate won at least five counties, along with it being the smallest margin of victory for a Republican nominee since George Bush in 1992.

Notes

  1. [a]
    Votes which had all its 5 ranked vote-choices allocated towards eliminated candidates who did not reach the threshold of 15%.
  2. [b]
    Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. [c]
    Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. [d]
    Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  5. [e]
    Hawkins (G) and "Other candidate/write-in" with 1%
  6. [f]
    "Someone else" and would not vote with 1%
  7. [g]
    Includes "Refused"
  8. [h]
    "Neither of the two candidates" with 11%
  9. [i]
    "Someone else" with 4%
  10. [j]
    Standard VI response
  11. [k]
    Hawkins (G) with 1%
  12. [l]
    If only Trump and Biden were candidates
  13. [m]
    "Some other candidate" with 5%
  14. [n]
    "Someone else" with 6%
  15. [o]
    "Someone else" with 3%
  16. [p]
    "Someone else" with 2%

Partisan clients

  1. [A]
    Protect Our Care is a pro-Affordable Care Act organization
  2. [B]
    Keep Kansas Great PAC endorsed Marshall prior to this poll's sampling period
  3. [C]
    Poll for EMILY's List, a Democratic PAC which seeks to elect pro-choice Democratic women to office

See also

References

Further reading

External links

Related Articles

Wikiwand AI