2024 United States presidential election in Kansas
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Kansas took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Kansas voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Kansas has six electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[2]
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November 5, 2024
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| Turnout | 67.84%[1]  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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A sparsely populated Great Plains state that has not voted Democrat for president since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, Kansas was considered by nearly all major news organizations to be safely Republican at the presidential level.
Kansas was won by the Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump, with a margin of 16.1%, a slight improvement from 4 years prior, although one of Trump’s smallest improvements throughout the nation by about 1.4%.[3]
Primary elections
Republican primary
The Kansas Republican primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Arizona, Florida, Illinois, and Ohio.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 72,115 | 75.52% | 39 | 39 | |
| Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 15,339 | 16.06% | |||
| None of the Names Shown | 4,982 | 5.22% | |||
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 2,543 | 2.66% | |||
| Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 508 | 0.53% | |||
| Total: | 95,487 | 100.00% | 39 | 39 | |
Democratic primary
The Kansas Democratic primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Arizona, Illinois, and Ohio.
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 35,906 | 83.67 | 33 |
| Marianne Williamson | 1,494 | 3.48 | 0 |
| Dean Phillips (withdrawn) | 566 | 1.32 | 0 |
| Jason Palmer | 516 | 1.20 | 0 |
| None of the names | 4,433 | 10.33 | 0 |
| Total | 42,915 | 100% | 33 |
Green primary
The Kansas Green primary was held from January 22, 2024, to February 5, 2024. It was a held digitally under a ranked-choice voting system. Jill Stein won with 100% of the vote, being ranked first by all 7 voting party members. Stein automatically received Kansas's 4 delegates to the 2024 Green National Convention.[7]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Delegate count |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jill Stein | 7 | 100% | 4 |
| Total: | 7 | 100% | 4 |
| Source:[7] | |||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[8] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[9] | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Safe R | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[11] | Safe R | May 31, 2024 |
| CNalysis[12] | Very Likely R | November 4, 2024 |
| CNN[13] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[14] | Safe R | June 12, 2024 |
| 538[15] | Solid R | October 3, 2024 |
| NBC News[16] | Safe R | October 6, 2024 |
Polling
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[18][A] | April 13–21, 2024 | 385 (LV) | – | 48% | 42% | 10% |
| Emerson College[19] | October 1–4, 2023 | 487 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 31% | 22% |
| Emerson College[20] | October 27–29, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 37% | 13% |
| Emerson College[21] | September 15–18, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 36% | 12% |
| Echelon Insights[22][B] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 392 (LV) | ± 7.5% | 52% | 41% | 7% |
Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[18][A] | April 13–21, 2024 | 385 (LV) | – | 44% | 42% | 14% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[18][A] | April 13–21, 2024 | 385 (LV) | – | 53% | 36% | 11% |
Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 758,802 | 57.16% | +1.02% | ||
| Democratic | 544,853 | 41.04% | −0.47% | ||
| Independent |
|
16,322 | 1.23% | N/A | |
| Libertarian | 7,614 | 0.57% | −1.66% | ||
| Total votes | 1,327,591 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
By county
| County[24] | Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Allen | 4,029 | 71.95% | 1,445 | 25.80% | 126 | 2.25% | 2,584 | 46.14% | 5,600 |
| Anderson | 2,998 | 79.08% | 732 | 19.31% | 61 | 1.61% | 2,266 | 59.77% | 3,791 |
| Atchison | 4,911 | 67.69% | 2,201 | 30.34% | 143 | 1.97% | 2,710 | 37.35% | 7,255 |
| Barber | 1,854 | 85.44% | 288 | 13.27% | 28 | 1.29% | 1,566 | 72.17% | 2,170 |
| Barton | 8,205 | 77.63% | 2,207 | 20.88% | 158 | 1.49% | 5,998 | 56.75% | 10,570 |
| Bourbon | 5,003 | 76.13% | 1,444 | 21.97% | 125 | 1.90% | 3,559 | 54.15% | 6,572 |
| Brown | 3,106 | 72.95% | 1,065 | 25.01% | 87 | 2.04% | 2,041 | 47.93% | 4,258 |
| Butler | 22,426 | 69.57% | 9,150 | 28.38% | 660 | 2.05% | 13,276 | 41.18% | 32,236 |
| Chase | 1,090 | 74.56% | 348 | 23.80% | 24 | 1.64% | 742 | 50.75% | 1,462 |
| Chautauqua | 1,299 | 85.07% | 211 | 13.82% | 17 | 1.11% | 1,088 | 71.25% | 1,527 |
| Cherokee | 6,584 | 75.53% | 1,970 | 22.60% | 163 | 1.87% | 4,614 | 52.93% | 8,717 |
| Cheyenne | 1,185 | 83.33% | 206 | 14.49% | 31 | 2.18% | 979 | 68.85% | 1,422 |
| Clark | 867 | 85.50% | 129 | 12.72% | 18 | 1.78% | 738 | 72.78% | 1,014 |
| Clay | 3,150 | 76.59% | 867 | 21.08% | 96 | 2.33% | 2,283 | 55.51% | 4,113 |
| Cloud | 3,218 | 79.52% | 767 | 18.95% | 62 | 1.53% | 2,451 | 60.56% | 4,047 |
| Coffey | 3,371 | 77.02% | 934 | 21.34% | 72 | 1.64% | 2,437 | 55.68% | 4,377 |
| Comanche | 727 | 83.18% | 130 | 14.87% | 17 | 1.95% | 597 | 68.31% | 874 |
| Cowley | 9,360 | 69.31% | 3,919 | 29.02% | 226 | 1.67% | 5,441 | 40.29% | 13,505 |
| Crawford | 10,084 | 61.74% | 5,956 | 36.46% | 294 | 1.80% | 4,128 | 25.27% | 16,334 |
| Decatur | 1,217 | 83.82% | 215 | 14.81% | 20 | 1.38% | 1,002 | 69.01% | 1,452 |
| Dickinson | 7,014 | 76.71% | 1,989 | 21.75% | 141 | 1.54% | 5,025 | 54.95% | 9,144 |
| Doniphan | 2,899 | 81.05% | 626 | 17.50% | 52 | 1.45% | 2,273 | 63.54% | 3,577 |
| Douglas | 17,523 | 30.19% | 39,582 | 68.20% | 936 | 1.61% | -22,059 | -38.01% | 58,041 |
| Edwards | 1,042 | 82.11% | 213 | 16.78% | 14 | 1.10% | 829 | 65.33% | 1,269 |
| Elk | 1,123 | 83.93% | 191 | 14.28% | 24 | 1.79% | 932 | 69.66% | 1,338 |
| Ellis | 9,743 | 72.11% | 3,511 | 25.99% | 257 | 1.90% | 6,232 | 46.13% | 13,511 |
| Ellsworth | 2,078 | 75.34% | 636 | 23.06% | 44 | 1.60% | 1,442 | 52.28% | 2,758 |
| Finney | 7,166 | 66.46% | 3,425 | 31.77% | 191 | 1.77% | 3,741 | 34.70% | 10,782 |
| Ford | 5,616 | 68.29% | 2,461 | 29.92% | 147 | 1.79% | 3,155 | 38.36% | 8,224 |
| Franklin | 8,773 | 69.04% | 3,676 | 28.93% | 259 | 2.04% | 5,097 | 40.11% | 12,708 |
| Geary | 5,288 | 57.71% | 3,674 | 40.10% | 201 | 2.19% | 1,614 | 17.61% | 9,163 |
| Gove | 1,227 | 87.89% | 150 | 10.74% | 19 | 1.36% | 1,077 | 77.15% | 1,396 |
| Graham | 1,055 | 81.97% | 210 | 16.32% | 22 | 1.71% | 845 | 65.66% | 1,287 |
| Grant | 1,793 | 80.77% | 395 | 17.79% | 32 | 1.44% | 1,398 | 62.97% | 2,220 |
| Gray | 1,837 | 83.77% | 324 | 14.77% | 32 | 1.46% | 1,513 | 68.99% | 2,193 |
| Greeley | 510 | 86.00% | 75 | 12.65% | 8 | 1.35% | 435 | 73.36% | 593 |
| Greenwood | 2,299 | 79.72% | 541 | 18.76% | 44 | 1.53% | 1,758 | 60.96% | 2,884 |
| Hamilton | 671 | 82.33% | 131 | 16.07% | 13 | 1.60% | 540 | 66.26% | 815 |
| Harper | 2,072 | 81.10% | 437 | 17.10% | 46 | 1.80% | 1,635 | 63.99% | 2,555 |
| Harvey | 9,591 | 59.62% | 6,202 | 38.56% | 293 | 1.82% | 3,389 | 21.07% | 16,086 |
| Haskell | 1,045 | 81.77% | 221 | 17.29% | 12 | 0.94% | 824 | 64.48% | 1,278 |
| Hodgeman | 817 | 84.58% | 136 | 14.08% | 13 | 1.35% | 681 | 70.50% | 966 |
| Jackson | 4,557 | 70.39% | 1,799 | 27.79% | 118 | 1.82% | 2,758 | 42.60% | 6,474 |
| Jefferson | 6,694 | 67.43% | 3,030 | 30.52% | 203 | 2.04% | 3,664 | 36.91% | 9,927 |
| Jewell | 1,370 | 87.04% | 176 | 11.18% | 28 | 1.78% | 1,194 | 75.86% | 1,574 |
| Johnson | 154,247 | 44.87% | 183,451 | 53.36% | 6,082 | 1.77% | -29,204 | -8.49% | 343,780 |
| Kearny | 1,082 | 83.17% | 192 | 14.76% | 27 | 2.08% | 890 | 68.41% | 1,301 |
| Kingman | 3,119 | 79.02% | 753 | 19.08% | 75 | 1.90% | 2,366 | 59.94% | 3,947 |
| Kiowa | 941 | 85.00% | 151 | 13.64% | 15 | 1.36% | 790 | 71.36% | 1,107 |
| Labette | 5,410 | 68.30% | 2,385 | 30.11% | 126 | 1.59% | 3,025 | 38.19% | 7,921 |
| Lane | 709 | 84.10% | 111 | 13.17% | 23 | 2.73% | 598 | 70.94% | 843 |
| Leavenworth | 22,055 | 60.35% | 13,732 | 37.57% | 760 | 2.08% | 8,323 | 22.77% | 36,547 |
| Lincoln | 1,233 | 81.82% | 250 | 16.59% | 24 | 1.59% | 983 | 65.23% | 1,507 |
| Linn | 4,093 | 81.60% | 854 | 17.03% | 69 | 1.38% | 3,239 | 64.57% | 5,016 |
| Logan | 1,186 | 84.71% | 183 | 13.07% | 31 | 2.21% | 1,003 | 71.64% | 1,400 |
| Lyon | 7,462 | 56.29% | 5,515 | 41.60% | 279 | 2.10% | 1,947 | 14.69% | 13,256 |
| Marion | 4,312 | 73.46% | 1,429 | 24.34% | 129 | 2.20% | 2,883 | 49.11% | 5,870 |
| Marshall | 3,644 | 73.35% | 1,205 | 24.26% | 119 | 2.40% | 2,439 | 49.09% | 4,968 |
| McPherson | 9,816 | 69.60% | 4,021 | 28.51% | 267 | 1.89% | 5,795 | 41.09% | 14,104 |
| Meade | 1,427 | 84.19% | 247 | 14.57% | 21 | 1.24% | 1,180 | 69.62% | 1,695 |
| Miami | 12,854 | 68.79% | 5,472 | 29.29% | 359 | 1.92% | 7,382 | 39.51% | 18,685 |
| Mitchell | 2,608 | 82.22% | 528 | 16.65% | 36 | 1.13% | 2,080 | 65.57% | 3,172 |
| Montgomery | 9,287 | 74.65% | 2,934 | 23.58% | 220 | 1.77% | 6,353 | 51.07% | 12,441 |
| Morris | 2,021 | 72.39% | 721 | 25.82% | 50 | 1.79% | 1,300 | 46.56% | 2,792 |
| Morton | 909 | 85.75% | 131 | 12.36% | 20 | 1.89% | 778 | 73.40% | 1,060 |
| Nemaha | 4,655 | 82.83% | 888 | 15.80% | 77 | 1.37% | 3,767 | 67.03% | 5,620 |
| Neosho | 4,961 | 73.13% | 1,696 | 25.00% | 127 | 1.87% | 3,265 | 48.13% | 6,784 |
| Ness | 1,205 | 88.41% | 129 | 9.46% | 29 | 2.13% | 1,076 | 78.94% | 1,363 |
| Norton | 1,882 | 82.91% | 346 | 15.24% | 42 | 1.85% | 1,536 | 67.67% | 2,270 |
| Osage | 5,736 | 72.68% | 1,946 | 24.66% | 210 | 2.66% | 3,790 | 48.02% | 7,892 |
| Osborne | 1,477 | 83.26% | 261 | 14.71% | 36 | 2.03% | 1,216 | 68.55% | 1,774 |
| Ottawa | 2,475 | 82.42% | 476 | 15.85% | 52 | 1.73% | 1,999 | 66.57% | 3,003 |
| Pawnee | 2,003 | 74.88% | 625 | 23.36% | 47 | 1.76% | 1,378 | 51.51% | 2,675 |
| Phillips | 2,356 | 85.77% | 331 | 12.05% | 60 | 2.18% | 2,025 | 73.72% | 2,747 |
| Pottawatomie | 9,811 | 72.83% | 3,394 | 25.19% | 267 | 1.98% | 6,417 | 47.63% | 13,472 |
| Pratt | 3,054 | 74.82% | 954 | 23.37% | 74 | 1.81% | 2,100 | 51.45% | 4,082 |
| Rawlins | 1,194 | 85.10% | 176 | 12.54% | 33 | 2.35% | 1,018 | 72.56% | 1,403 |
| Reno | 17,847 | 66.25% | 8,554 | 31.75% | 539 | 2.00% | 9,293 | 34.50% | 26,940 |
| Republic | 2,001 | 81.91% | 396 | 16.21% | 46 | 1.88% | 1,605 | 65.70% | 2,443 |
| Rice | 3,073 | 77.48% | 825 | 20.80% | 68 | 1.71% | 2,248 | 56.68% | 3,966 |
| Riley | 11,630 | 47.83% | 12,063 | 49.62% | 620 | 2.55% | -433 | -1.78% | 24,313 |
| Rooks | 2,153 | 84.96% | 349 | 13.77% | 32 | 1.26% | 1,804 | 71.19% | 2,534 |
| Rush | 1,315 | 81.88% | 264 | 16.44% | 27 | 1.68% | 1,051 | 65.44% | 1,606 |
| Russell | 2,632 | 79.73% | 608 | 18.42% | 61 | 1.85% | 2,024 | 61.31% | 3,301 |
| Saline | 15,069 | 64.88% | 7,734 | 33.30% | 423 | 1.82% | 7,335 | 31.58% | 23,226 |
| Scott | 1,843 | 86.32% | 248 | 11.62% | 44 | 2.06% | 1,595 | 74.71% | 2,135 |
| Sedgwick | 120,118 | 56.09% | 90,506 | 42.26% | 3,528 | 1.65% | 29,612 | 13.83% | 214,152 |
| Seward | 3,133 | 68.63% | 1,354 | 29.66% | 78 | 1.71% | 1,779 | 38.97% | 4,565 |
| Shawnee | 39,901 | 48.77% | 40,308 | 49.26% | 1,610 | 1.97% | -407 | -0.50% | 81,819 |
| Sheridan | 1,229 | 89.51% | 126 | 9.18% | 18 | 1.31% | 1,103 | 80.34% | 1,373 |
| Sherman | 2,161 | 83.34% | 379 | 14.62% | 53 | 2.04% | 1,782 | 68.72% | 2,593 |
| Smith | 1,675 | 83.50% | 300 | 14.96% | 31 | 1.55% | 1,375 | 68.54% | 2,006 |
| Stafford | 1,548 | 81.09% | 326 | 17.08% | 35 | 1.83% | 1,222 | 64.01% | 1,909 |
| Stanton | 537 | 80.87% | 115 | 17.32% | 12 | 1.81% | 422 | 63.55% | 664 |
| Stevens | 1,595 | 86.92% | 210 | 11.44% | 30 | 1.63% | 1,385 | 75.48% | 1,835 |
| Sumner | 7,810 | 74.04% | 2,527 | 23.95% | 212 | 2.01% | 5,283 | 50.08% | 10,549 |
| Thomas | 3,007 | 82.07% | 597 | 16.29% | 60 | 1.64% | 2,410 | 65.78% | 3,664 |
| Trego | 1,343 | 84.63% | 216 | 13.61% | 28 | 1.76% | 1,127 | 71.01% | 1,587 |
| Wabaunsee | 2,816 | 73.41% | 944 | 24.61% | 76 | 1.98% | 1,872 | 48.80% | 3,836 |
| Wallace | 686 | 91.71% | 52 | 6.95% | 10 | 1.34% | 634 | 84.76% | 748 |
| Washington | 2,263 | 83.81% | 396 | 14.67% | 41 | 1.52% | 1,867 | 69.15% | 2,700 |
| Wichita | 740 | 86.05% | 107 | 12.44% | 13 | 1.51% | 633 | 73.60% | 860 |
| Wilson | 2,894 | 80.32% | 647 | 17.96% | 62 | 1.72% | 2,247 | 62.36% | 3,603 |
| Woodson | 1,205 | 80.01% | 282 | 18.73% | 19 | 1.26% | 923 | 61.29% | 1,506 |
| Wyandotte | 18,867 | 37.29% | 30,938 | 61.14% | 797 | 1.58% | -12,071 | -23.85% | 50,602 |
| Totals | 758,802 | 57.16% | 544,853 | 41.04% | 23,936 | 1.80% | 213,949 | 16.12% | 1,327,591 |
By congressional district
Trump won three of four congressional districts.[24]
| District | Trump | Harris | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 64.72% | 33.45% | Tracey Mann |
| 2nd | 58.89% | 39.21% | Jake LaTurner (118th Congress) |
| Derek Schmidt (119th Congress) | |||
| 3rd | 47.06% | 51.16% | Sharice Davids |
| 4th | 60.79% | 37.50% | Ron Estes |
Analysis
In recent years, Democrats have seen some success in the state, such as defeating the 2022 Kansas abortion referendum and holding the governorship since 2019. This leftward shift has been attributed to the growth of the Kansas City metropolitan area, more specifically Johnson County, the state's most populous, which supported Joe Biden four years prior, the first win for a Democrat in this county since 1916.[25] While Democrats had hoped that their margin of defeat would narrow further after favorable polls and Biden's favorable results compared to 2016, Kansas instead shifted to the right, with Trump improving on his margin[26] and Republicans in the state legislature expanding their supermajorities.[27]
Trump improved on his 14.6% margin from 2020, albeit by only 1.5% compared to the national average of about 6%, meaning Kansas voted to the right of the nation by a smaller margin in 2024. As such, Trump is the first Republican to win the White House without Johnson County since William McKinley in 1896, and the first since Kansas achieved statehood to win without Riley County, home to Fort Riley and Kansas State University, and Shawnee County, home to the state capital of Topeka (though he was less than 500 votes away from winning each of the latter two counties). Johnson County was the only county that supported Biden in 2020 in which Kamala Harris improved the Democratic margin.