2021 Virginia gubernatorial election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election was held on November 2, 2021, to elect the governor of Virginia. Republican businessman Glenn Youngkin defeated Democratic former governor Terry McAuliffe. Youngkin succeeded Democratic incumbent Ralph Northam who was term-limited and ineligible to seek a second term.

Quick facts Turnout, Nominee ...
2021 Virginia gubernatorial election
← 2017
November 2, 2021[1]
2025 →
Turnout54.9% Increase 7.7 pp[2]
 
Nominee Glenn Youngkin Terry McAuliffe
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,663,158 1,599,470
Percentage 50.58% 48.64%
Youngkin:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
McAuliffe:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%      No data
Governor before election

Ralph Northam
Democratic

 Elected Governor

Glenn Youngkin
Republican

Close

The Democratic Party held its primary elections on June 8, 2021. McAuliffe won the primary with 62% of the vote.[3][4] The Republican Party held its convention on May 8, 2021, in which Youngkin won the nomination on May 10.[5][6]

At the start of the general election, McAuliffe was widely considered to be the favorite,[7] but Youngkin closed the gap throughout most of the fall, leading most analysts to label the election as a toss-up. Youngkin ended up narrowly defeating McAuliffe by 63,688 votes, in an upset. Youngkin's coattails seemingly benefitted fellow down-ballot candidates Winsome Earle-Sears and Jason Miyares who concurrently won elections for Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General; 2021 remains the only time the Republican Party has won statewide elections in Virginia since 2009. The economy, education, public health, and cultural issues were centerpieces of Youngkin's campaign.[8][9][10] Youngkin promised to ban the teaching of critical race theory within public schools on "day one", push back against certain COVID-19 restrictions including vaccination mandates and mask mandates, and advocate for small government within the state of Virginia.[11][12][13][14]

Democrats tried to portray Youngkin as a political ally of Donald Trump, who lost Virginia in 2020, and Trump did indeed express support for Youngkin. Walking a fine line between welcoming the endorsement and demonstrating independence, Youngkin was successfully able to appeal to both Republicans and independents.[15] Political analysts believe that the main reason for the Democratic Party's defeat in Virginia was that voters were not satisfied with the performance of President Joe Biden, with whom McAuliffe allied himself.[16][17]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Jennifer Carroll Foy

U.S. representatives

State legislators

  • 2 state delegates[a]

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations

Labor unions

Lee J. Carter

Individual

Justin Fairfax

Foreign politician

Terry McAuliffe

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

State delegates

State senators

Local officials

Labor unions

Newspapers

Individuals

Organizations

Jennifer McClellan

State delegates
[57]

State senators

Local officials

Organizations

Individuals

Debates

More information Date, Venue ...
Democratic Primary Debates
Date Venue Video Terry McAuliffe Jennifer Carroll Foy Jennifer McClellan Justin Fairfax Lee J. Carter
April 6, 2021 Virginia State University [66] Participant Participant Participant Participant Participant
Close

McClellan opened the debate calling for a "nominee who will excite and expand our base. I've spent 31 years building this party and electing Democrats at the local, state and national level. It's not enough to give someone something to vote against. We've got to give people something to vote for," McClellan said. Foy said in her opening statement that she is presenting bold ideas that past politicians have failed to bring to Virginia. The pointed remark came before she went after the record of McAuliffe, the first criticism of the night directed at the presumptive frontrunner.[67] Lieutenant Governor Justin Fairfax compared scrutiny of his sexual assault allegations to that of the cases of George Floyd and Emmett Till in the debate.[68] McAuliffe mainly avoided directly responding to the attacks, focusing instead on his record as governor, the support he's received during his campaign and, stopping Glenn Youngkin in November's general election. Later in the debate, Carter called McAuliffe out for mentioning Youngkin and Trump so often. "The debate that we're supposed to be having on this stage is a debate about the future of this commonwealth," he said. "It's about what we stand for and what we're going to fight for. And this is the first opportunity for the Democratic Party to define what it is going to be after Donald Trump is gone. And he is gone. So, we can't just be a party that is opposed to the other guys. We have to fight for something." Carter, a self-described socialist, reiterated his proposal to use tax revenue from the marijuana industry to fund reparations.[67]

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[b]		 Margin
of error		 Jennifer
Carroll Foy		 Lee
Carter		 Justin
Fairfax		 Terry
McAuliffe		 Jennifer
McClellan		 Other Undecided
Roanoke College[69] May 24 – June 1, 2021 637 (LV) ± 3.9% 11% 1% 5% 49% 9% 0% 24%
Christopher Newport University[70] April 11–20, 2021 806 (LV) ± 3.9% 5% 1% 8% 47% 6% 2% 31%
Public Policy Polling (D)[71] April 12–13, 2021 526 (LV) ± 4.3% 8% 4% 7% 42% 8% – 29%
Christopher Newport University[72] January 31 – February 14, 2021 488 (RV) ± 4.9% 4% 1% 12% 26% 4% 0% 54%
YouGov Blue (D)[73] February 6–11, 2021 235 (RV) ± 7.4% 7% 6% 6% 43% 8% 0% 30%
Global Strategy Group (D)[74][A] January 12–20, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 7% – 14% 42% 6% – 30%
Expedition Strategies (D)[75][B] December 2020 – (LV) – 5% – 16% 32% 8% – 38%
Close

Results

Results by county and independent city:
  McAuliffe
  •   80–90%
  •   70–80%
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%
  •   40–50%
More information Party, Candidate ...
Democratic primary results[76]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Terry McAuliffe 307,367 62.10%
Democratic Jennifer Carroll Foy 98,052 19.81%
Democratic Jennifer McClellan 58,213 11.76%
Democratic Justin Fairfax 17,606 3.56%
Democratic Lee J. Carter 13,694 2.77%
Total votes 494,932 100.0%
Close

Republican convention

The Republican nomination process for the 2021 elections was the subject of a lengthy and acrimonious debate within the Republican Party of Virginia.[77][78] On December 5, 2020, the state Republican Party voted to hold a convention instead of a primary by a vote of 39 to 35.[79] State Senator Amanda Chase initially indicated that she would run as an independent,[80] but she later decided to seek nomination at the convention; on the day of the convention, she acknowledged that if she did not win the nomination, she may reconsider and run as an independent, although she eventually decided against this.[81] Faced with pressure from the Chase campaign and activists to return to a primary, the state committee debated scrapping the convention on January 23, 2021. These efforts were unsuccessful and the party reaffirmed their decision to hold a convention.[82] On February 9, 2021, the Chase campaign sued the Republican Party of Virginia, arguing that the convention is illegal under COVID-19-related executive orders signed by Governor Ralph Northam.[83] The Richmond Circuit Court dismissed the Chase campaign's lawsuit on February 19, 2021.[84] The Republican Party of Virginia announced on March 26, 2021, that seven gubernatorial candidates had qualified to appear on the convention ballot.[85] On April 11, 2021, the state Republican Party Rules Committee voted to tabulate the ballots by hand; three days later, however, the committee reversed itself and decided to use a vendor's software-based tabulation method.[77]

On April 20, 2021, five candidates (Amanda Chase, Kirk Cox, Sergio de la Peña, Peter Doran, and Glenn Youngkin) participated in a forum at Liberty University in Lynchburg.[86] Two candidates, Octavia Johnson and Pete Snyder, did not attend the forum.[86][87]

The state Republican convention to select the party's nominees for governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general took place on May 8, 2021,[78][77] in "unassembled" format,[77] with ballots to be cast remotely at up to 37 locations statewide[78] using ranked-choice voting.[77] The complex process fueled internal party disputes.[88] Up to 40,000 people were anticipated to become delegates, although not all would necessarily cast votes.[77] Local Republican Party leaders control the application process to become a delegate, decide who can participate (voter registration in Virginia does not include a space to indicate party affiliation), and select the convention voting site.[88] In the preceding Virginia Republican gubernatorial convention, 12,000 participated.[77]

Orthodox Jewish Virginia Republicans asked the party to allow absentee voting for religious reasons (May 8 is on the Jewish Sabbath), but the State Central Committee initially voted down the request, failing to achieve the 75% supermajority needed to change the rules.[89] However, the Virginia GOP ultimately reversed course and allowed those with religious objections to vote in the May 8 convention via absentee ballots. Republican candidates Kirk Cox, Peter Doran, and Glenn Youngkin had criticized the previous decision to not accommodate Orthodox Jews.[90]

Cox received crucial endorsements of Bob McDonnell and George Allen, the former of whom was the last statewide elected Republican (alongside Bill Bolling and Ken Cuccinelli) in Virginia prior to 2022. He was regarded by some as the establishment favorite heading into the convention.[91] Nonetheless, he finished fourth on the first voting round behind Glenn Youngkin, Pete Snyder, and Amanda Chase. Youngkin was nominated on the sixth round of voting.

Candidates

Nominated at convention

Eliminated at convention

Did not qualify

Declined

Endorsements

Amanda Chase

Executive branch officials

Kirk Cox

U.S. senators

Governors

U.S. representatives

State delegates

State senators

Individuals

Pete Snyder

Executive Branch Officials

U.S. representatives

State delegate

State senator

Individuals

Glenn Youngkin

U.S. senator

Governor

State senator

State delegate

Polling


Primary polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[b]		 Margin
of error		 Amanda
Chase		 Kirk
Cox		 Sergio
de la Peña		 Peter
Doran		 Octavia
Johnson		 Pete
Snyder		 Glenn
Youngkin		 Other Undecided
Change Research (D)[122] May 5–6, 2021 605 (LV) ± 4.4% 29% 7% 2% 0% 1% 13% 25% – 25%
Public Policy Polling (D)[123][C] April 2021 695 (LV) ± 3.7% 22% 7% 3% 1% 0% 16% 21% – 30%
Christopher Newport University[72] January 31 – February 14, 2021 370 (RV) ± 5.6% 17% 10% – – – – 3% – 55%
YouGov Blue (D)[73] February 6–11, 2021 170 (RV) ± 8.6% 24% 7% 1% – – 13% 5% 0% 54%
Close

Convention polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[b]		 Margin
of error		 Amanda
Chase		 Kirk
Cox		 Pete
Snyder		 Glenn
Youngkin		 Other Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)[124][D] April 29 – May 3, 2021 3,896 (LV) ± 1.6% 10% 10% 26% 38% 13% 3%
Close
Final results by county and independent city:
  Youngkin
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Tie
  •   50%
  Snyder
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   90–100%

Results

Round-by-round result visualization of the Ranked Choice Voting election
More information Virginia GOP Convention, Governor Nominee, Candidate ...
Virginia GOP Convention, Governor Nominee[125]
Candidate Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 5 Round 6
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
Glenn Youngkin 4131.80 32.9% 4140.55 33.0% 4148.91 33.0% 4331.93 34.5% 5311.43 42.3% 6869.22 54.7%
Pete Snyder 3241.61 25.8% 3243.84 25.8% 3249.71 25.9% 3502.91 27.9% 4078.25 32.5% 5684.78 45.3%
Amanda Chase 2605.89 20.8% 2611.54 20.8% 2619.83 20.9% 2859.39 22.8% 3164.32 25.2% Eliminated
Kirk Cox 1693.58 13.5% 1698.13 13.5% 1705.90 13.6% 1859.77 14.8% Eliminated
Sergio de la Peña 805.35 6.4% 812.44 6.5% 829.65 6.6% Eliminated
Peter Doran 42.28 0.3% 47.50 0.4% Eliminated
Octavia Johnson 33.48 0.3% Eliminated
Close

Other parties and independents

Candidates

Declared

Did not qualify

Declined

General election

On August 26, the Republican Party of Virginia filed a lawsuit to disqualify McAuliffe from appearing on the ballot in November. The suit alleges that McAuliffe did not sign his declaration of candidacy, which is needed to qualify in the primary and general election.[136] It was found that the declaration of candidacy was missing his signature, although it includes two witnesses' signatures. The suit also alleges the witnesses violated state law by witnessing a signing that didn't occur.[137]

Debates

Canceled debates

On July 12, Glenn Youngkin announced he would not take part in the July 24 debate hosted by the Virginia Bar Association because of a donation made by one of the moderators, Judy Woodruff.[138][139] Woodruff had made a $250 donation to the Clinton Foundation relief fund after the 2010 Haiti earthquake. The foundation had been run by Hillary and Bill Clinton, who are close allies to Terry McAuliffe.[138] On July 28, after discovering that Youngkin would participate in an 'election integrity' rally at Liberty University, McAuliffe declined a debate at the same university.[140] On August 2, Youngkin declined participation in The People's Debate.[141] The two candidates pledged to two debates; one on September 16 and one on September 28.[142]

First debate

Youngkin and McAuliffe met at Appalachian School of Law in Grundy, Virginia on September 16, 2021, one day before early voting began.[143] The debate was hosted by USA Today Washington Bureau Chief, Susan Page.[144]

The debate started with discussion over a recent COVID-19 mandate President Joe Biden signed requiring federal workers, employees of large companies, and contractors to be vaccinated.[145][146] Youngkin doubted if Biden had the power to authorize the mandate, and supported personal choice for receiving the vaccine. McAuliffe supported the mandate and accused Youngkin of spreading "anti-vax" rhetoric.[146] Youngkin denied the claim. McAuliffe also supported requiring vaccines for students over the age of 12.[147] McAuliffe has also repeatedly made false statements about COVID-19, often inflating the number of cases.[148]

The discussion moved to climate change, where Youngkin stated he would use all sources of energy to address climate change without "putting [the] entire energy grid at risk for political purposes." McAuliffe called for clean energy in the state by 2035 and stressed the idea for the state to be a production hub.[142]

The discussion then moved to abortion, specifically the recent Texas Heartbeat Act signed by Texas governor Greg Abbott (who endorsed Youngkin).[149] When asked whether or not Youngkin would sign a similar bill, Youngkin stated that he would not sign the bill, and that he was anti-abortion and supports exclusions in cases such as rape, incest, and when the life of the mother is endangered. He also stated he supports a "pain-threshold" bill that would ban most abortions at the point when a fetus can feel pain, which proponents of this type of law define as 20 weeks.[142] In addition, Youngkin stated McAuliffe was "the most extreme pro-abortion candidate in America today".[149] In response to Youngkin, McAuliffe stated he was a "brick wall" on women's rights and would protect a woman's decision over abortion and supports reducing the number of doctors needed to certify a third-trimester abortion from three to one.[149]

The next discussion topic was over election integrity. After supporting an "Election Integrity Taskforce", Youngkin stated he does not believe there has been "significant fraud", and stated the issue of fraud as "a democracy issue". Youngkin stressed that he believes that "Joe Biden's our president" and criticized the withdrawal from Afghanistan. McAuliffe took note of Donald Trump's endorsement of Youngkin, calling him a "Trump wannabe".[146] Both candidates stated they would concede the election if the other came out on top.[149]

The final discussion topic was over the economy. McAuliffe attacked Youngkin on his top economic advisor, Stephen Moore, who advised Donald Trump's 2016 presidential campaign. Youngkin defended Virginia's right-to-work law.[149]

Second debate

Youngkin and McAuliffe met at the Northern Virginia Chamber of Commerce on September 28, 2021.[150] The event was hosted by Chuck Todd, moderator of NBC's Meet the Press. Less than a week before the debate, one of the panelists, Michael Fauntroy, withdrew from the debate after tweets against the GOP and Evangelicals were found.[151]

On the discussion topic of COVID-19, Youngkin and McAuliffe reiterated their stances on the vaccines. Youngkin stated he believed in mandates for vaccines for diseases measles, mumps and rubella, but not for COVID-19, saying that "the data associated with those vaccines is something that we should absolutely understand the difference between this vaccine."[152] Youngkin said people should get vaccinated against COVID-19.[152]

During the debate, Youngkin noted that Trump was regularly mentioned by McAuliffe, who again called Youngkin a "Trump wannabe."[152][153] When asked, Youngkin stated he would support Trump if he were to become the Republican nominee in 2024.[153]

Approximately 15 minutes into the debate, third party candidate Princess Blanding, who was in the audience, disrupted the debate, screaming that her exclusion from the debate was "unfair" and claiming that McAuliffe would not win the election.[154] After being escorted out by security, she claimed that being excluded from the debate was racist and sexist, and that it constituted "censorship".[155]

Youngkin asserted that McAuliffe had vetoed legislation that would have required schools to inform parents about sexually explicit content in educational materials.[156][157] McAuliffe defended his veto, saying: "'I'm not going to let parents come into schools and actually take books out and make their own decision... I don't think parents should be telling schools what they should teach'".[158][159][157] McAuliffe received criticism for these remarks,[160][161] and Youngkin used his comments to create an attack ad.[162][163] Following the election, Newsweek described McAuliffe's remarks as "a major factor in the race".[164]

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[165] Tossup October 5, 2021
Inside Elections[166] Tossup November 1, 2021
Sabato's Crystal Ball[167] Lean R (flip) November 1, 2021
Close

Endorsements

Terry McAuliffe (D)

Federal officials

Governors

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State legislators

Local officials

Labor unions

Organizations

Newspapers

Individuals

Glenn Youngkin (R)

Executive Branch officials

U.S. senators

Governors

U.S. representatives

State legislators

Local officials

Organizations

Individuals

Princess Blanding (L)
State legislators

Polling

Aggregate polls

More information Source of poll aggregation, Dates administered ...
Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Terry
McAuliffe (D)		 Glenn
Youngkin (R)		 Other/Undecided
[d]		 Margin
Real Clear Politics[255] October 20–31, 2021 November 1, 2021 46.8% 48.5% 4.8% Youngkin +1.7%
FiveThirtyEight[256] August 1 – November 1, 2021 November 1, 2021 47.0% 47.9% 5.1% Youngkin +1.0%
Average 46.9% 48.2% 5.0% Youngkin +1.4%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[b]		 Margin
of error		 Terry
McAuliffe (D)		 Glenn
Youngkin (R)		 Other Undecided
Research Co.[257] October 31 – November 1, 2021 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 47% 48% 2%[e] 3%
Targoz Market Research[258] October 26 – November 1, 2021 747 (LV) ± 3.6% 50% 47% – 3%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[259] October 29–31, 2021 1,081 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 49% 2% 2%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[260][E] October 27–30, 2021 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 47% 2%[e] 6%
Echelon Insights[261] October 27–29, 2021 611 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 49% 2%[e] 4%
Roanoke College[262] October 14–28, 2021 571 (LV) ± 4.7% 48% 47% 1%[f] 4%
Fox News[263] October 24–27, 2021 1,212 (RV) ± 2.5% 47% 48% 2% 3%
1,015 (LV) ± 3.0% 45% 53% 1% 1%
The Washington Post/Schar School[264] October 20–26, 2021 1,107 (RV) ± 3.5% 47% 44% 5%[g] 3%
49% 45% 3%[h] 4%
918 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 48% 1%[i] 2%
49% 48% 0%[j] 2%
Christopher Newport University[265] October 17–25, 2021 944 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 48% 1%[f] 1%
Suffolk University[266] October 21–24, 2021 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 45% 2%[e] 7%
Emerson College[267] October 22–23, 2021 875 (LV) ± 3.2% 48% 48% 1%[f] 3%
co/efficient (R)[268][F] October 20–21, 2021 785 (LV) ± 3.5% 43% 47% 5%[k] 5%
Cygnal (R)[269] October 19–21, 2021 816 (LV) ± 3.4% 48% 48% 1%[f] 3%
KAConsulting LLC (R)[270][G] October 18–21, 2021 661 (LV) ± 3.8% 41% 43% 1% 15%
Virginia Commonwealth University[271] October 9–21, 2021 722 (LV) ± 6.4% 41% 38% 10% 11%
Monmouth University[272] October 16–19, 2021 1,005 (RV) ± 3.1% 46% 46% 2% 7%
1,005 (LV)[l] 45% 48% – –
1,005 (LV)[m] 48% 45% – –
Data for Progress (D)[273] October 4–15, 2021 1,589 (LV) ± 2.0% 50% 45% 2% 3%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[274] October 11–13, 2021 1,095 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 48% 1% 3%
Fox News[275] October 10–13, 2021 1,004 (RV) ± 3.0% 52% 41% 2% 5%
726 (LV) ± 3.5% 51% 46% 1% 2%
Schoen Cooperman Research (D)[276] October 9–12, 2021 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 43% 0% 10%
YouGov/CBS News[277] October 4–11, 2021 1,040 (LV) ± 4.1% 50% 47% 2% 0%
Christopher Newport University[278] September 27 – October 6, 2021 802 (LV) ± 4.2% 49% 45% 1%[f] 5%
Emerson College[279] October 1–3, 2021 620 (LV) ± 3.9% 49% 48% 1% 2%
Fox News[280] September 26–29, 2021 901 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 44% 1% 7%
Roanoke College[281] September 12–26, 2021 603 (LV) ± 4.6% 48% 41% 2%[n] 9%
Monmouth University[282] September 22–26, 2021 801 (RV) ± 3.5% 48% 43% 2% 8%
801 (LV)[l] 48% 45% – –
801 (LV)[m] 50% 43% – –
Global Strategy Group (D)[283][H] September 16–20, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 45% – 7%
KAConsulting LLC (R)[284][G] September 17–19, 2021 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 46% 42% 1% 10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[285][I] September 17–18, 2021 875 (V) ± 3.3% 45% 42% – 13%
Virginia Commonwealth University[286] September 7–15, 2021 731 (LV) ± 6.9% 43% 34% 10% 13%
Emerson College[287] September 13–14, 2021 778 (LV) ± 3.4% 49% 45% 2% 5%
University of Mary Washington[288] September 7–13, 2021 1,000 (A) ± 3.1% 43% 38% 8%[o] 11%
885 (RV) ± 3.3% 46% 41% 2%[e] –
528 (LV) ± 4.1% 43% 48% 4%[p] 6%
The Washington Post/Schar School[289] September 7–13, 2021 907 (RV) ± 4.0% 49% 43% 3% 4%
728 (LV) ± 4.5% 50% 47% 1% 2%
WPA Intelligence (R)[290][J] August 30 – September 2, 2021 734 (LV) ± 3.6% 46% 48% 3%[q] 4%
48% 48% – 4%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[291] August 26–29, 2021 1,074 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 46% 2% 5%
Monmouth University[292] August 24–29, 2021 802 (RV) ± 3.5% 47% 42% 2% 9%
802 (LV)[l] 47% 45% – –
802 (LV)[m] 49% 42% – –
Christopher Newport University[293] August 15–23, 2021 800 (LV) ± 3.6% 50% 41% 3%[q] 6%
Global Strategy Group (D)[294][K] August 12–23, 2021 802 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 43% – 9%
Change Research (D)[295][L] August 17–21, 2021 1,653 (LV) ± 3.6% 49% 43% 3%[q] 5%
Change Research (D)[296][M] August 14–18, 2021 1,334 (LV) ± 2.7% 47% 44% – 9%
Roanoke College[297] August 3–17, 2021 558 (LV) ± 4.2% 46% 38% 3%[r] 13%
Virginia Commonwealth University[298] August 4–15, 2021 770 (RV) ± 5.4% 40% 37% 15% 9%
~747 (LV) ± 5.5% 40% 37% 14% 9%
co/efficient (R)[299] August 8–9, 2021 1,200 (LV) ± 2.8% 47% 45% – 8%
WPA Intelligence (R)[290][J] August 3–5, 2021 734 (LV) ± 3.6% 50% 43% 3%[q] 4%
51% 45% – 4%
co/efficient (R)[300][N] July 25–27, 2021 762 (LV) ± 3.5% 45% 40% 2%[e] 13%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[301] July 8–10, 2021 1,104 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 45% 4% 4%
Spry Strategies (R)[302][O] July 6–9, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 41% 2% 10%
JMC Analytics and Polling (R)[303][P] June 9–12, 2021 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 46% 42% – 12%
WPA Intelligence (R)[304][J] June 2–6, 2021 506 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 46% – 5%
Close

Fundraising

More information Campaign finance reports, Candidate ...
Campaign finance reports
Candidate Amount spent Votes Cost per vote
Glenn Youngkin $64,487,829 1,663,158 $38.77
Terry McAuliffe $68,777,633 1,599,470 $43.00
Princess Blanding $32,595 23,107 $1.41
Source: Virginia Public Access Project[305]
Close

Results

Election turnout by county and independent city:
  30–40%
  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
State Senate district results
State House of Delegates district results
More information Party, Candidate ...
2021 Virginia gubernatorial election[306]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Glenn Youngkin 1,663,158 50.58% +5.60%
Democratic Terry McAuliffe 1,599,470 48.64% −5.25%
Liberation Princess Blanding 23,107 0.70% N/A
Write-in 2,592 0.08% +0.02%
Total votes 3,288,327 100.00% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic
Close

By county and independent city

More information Locality, Terry McAuliffe Democratic ...
Locality[306] Terry McAuliffe
Democratic		 Glenn Youngkin
Republican		 Various candidates
Other parties		 Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Accomack 4,948 38.37% 7,878 61.08% 71 0.55% 2,930 22.72% 12,897
Albemarle 31,919 62.05% 19,141 37.21% 383 0.74% −12,778 −24.84% 51,443
Alexandria 43,866 75.20% 14,013 24.02% 451 0.77% −29,853 −51.18% 58,330
Alleghany 1,518 24.97% 4,530 74.52% 31 0.51% 3,012 49.55% 6,079
Amelia 1,617 25.42% 4,720 74.19% 25 0.39% 3,103 48.77% 6,362
Amherst 3,897 28.43% 9,731 71.00% 78 0.57% 5,834 42.57% 13,706
Appomattox 1,438 19.33% 5,971 80.26% 31 0.42% 4,533 60.93% 7,440
Arlington 73,013 76.67% 21,548 22.63% 670 0.70% −51,465 −54.04% 95,231
Augusta 7,231 21.51% 26,196 77.93% 186 0.55% 18,965 56.42% 33,613
Bath 396 20.34% 1,539 79.04% 12 0.62% 1,143 58.71% 1,947
Bedford 8,001 20.47% 30,912 79.10% 166 0.42% 22,911 58.63% 39,079
Bland 364 13.73% 2,274 85.78% 13 0.49% 1,910 72.05% 2,651
Botetourt 3,990 23.30% 13,066 76.30% 69 0.40% 9,076 53.00% 17,125
Bristol 1,342 26.07% 3,773 73.30% 32 0.62% 2,431 47.23% 5,147
Brunswick 3,165 52.02% 2,880 47.34% 39 0.64% −285 −4.68% 6,084
Buchanan 903 15.05% 5,083 84.72% 14 0.23% 4,180 69.67% 6,000
Buckingham 2,222 36.11% 3,894 63.29% 37 0.60% 1,672 27.17% 6,153
Buena Vista 481 24.50% 1,459 74.33% 23 1.17% 978 49.82% 1,963
Campbell 4,930 21.22% 18,213 78.39% 92 0.40% 13,283 57.17% 23,235
Caroline 5,045 41.83% 6,917 57.35% 99 0.82% 1,872 15.52% 12,061
Carroll 1,910 16.15% 9,868 83.45% 47 0.40% 7,958 67.30% 11,825
Charles City 1,822 53.79% 1,550 45.76% 15 0.44% −272 −8.03% 3,387
Charlotte 1,396 29.24% 3,354 70.26% 24 0.50% 1,958 41.01% 4,774
Charlottesville 14,378 82.88% 2,774 15.99% 195 1.12% −11,604 −66.89% 17,347
Chesapeake 42,907 46.79% 48,079 52.43% 713 0.78% 5,172 5.64% 91,699
Chesterfield 74,085 47.41% 80,889 51.76% 1,303 0.83% 6,804 4.35% 156,277
Clarke 2,739 36.90% 4,642 62.54% 41 0.55% 1,903 25.64% 7,422
Colonial Heights 1,729 25.79% 4,913 73.27% 63 0.94% 3,184 47.49% 6,705
Covington 579 32.29% 1,198 66.82% 16 0.89% 619 34.52% 1,793
Craig 400 16.00% 2,079 83.16% 21 0.84% 1,679 67.16% 2,500
Culpeper 6,661 32.95% 13,436 66.47% 117 0.58% 6,775 33.52% 20,214
Cumberland 1,515 35.86% 2,678 63.38% 32 0.76% 1,163 27.53% 4,225
Danville 6,872 53.42% 5,907 45.92% 85 0.66% −965 −7.50% 12,864
Dickenson 934 19.40% 3,867 80.31% 14 0.29% 2,933 60.91% 4,815
Dinwiddie 4,181 36.10% 7,335 63.33% 66 0.57% 3,154 27.23% 11,582
Emporia 1,087 59.33% 723 39.47% 22 1.20% −364 −19.87% 1,832
Essex 1,980 42.05% 2,684 57.00% 45 0.96% 704 14.95% 4,709
Fairfax City 6,465 63.74% 3,606 35.56% 71 0.70% −2,859 −28.19% 10,142
Fairfax County 286,316 64.89% 152,110 34.47% 2,840 0.64% −134,206 −30.41% 441,266
Falls Church 5,388 76.69% 1,590 22.63% 48 0.68% −3,798 −54.06% 7,026
Fauquier 11,570 34.04% 22,252 65.46% 170 0.50% 10,682 31.43% 33,992
Floyd 2,203 29.38% 5,230 69.75% 65 0.87% 3,027 40.37% 7,498
Fluvanna 5,312 42.65% 7,068 56.75% 74 0.59% 1,756 14.10% 12,454
Franklin City 1,680 56.66% 1,270 42.83% 15 0.51% −410 −13.83% 2,965
Franklin County 5,894 24.71% 17,842 74.82% 112 0.47% 11,948 50.10% 23,848
Frederick 11,164 30.69% 25,063 68.90% 149 0.41% 13,899 38.21% 36,376
Fredericksburg 5,402 59.79% 3,503 38.77% 130 1.44% −1,899 −21.02% 9,035
Galax 492 25.55% 1,424 73.94% 10 0.52% 932 48.39% 1,926
Giles 1,535 20.77% 5,788 78.33% 66 0.89% 4,253 57.56% 7,389
Gloucester 4,712 27.09% 12,585 72.37% 94 0.54% 7,873 45.27% 17,391
Goochland 4,910 33.74% 9,585 65.87% 57 0.39% 4,675 32.13% 14,552
Grayson 1,062 17.03% 5,144 82.48% 31 0.50% 4,082 65.45% 6,237
Greene 2,806 31.73% 5,961 67.42% 75 0.85% 3,155 35.68% 8,842
Greensville 1,915 52.64% 1,709 46.98% 14 0.38% −206 −5.66% 3,638
Halifax 4,804 35.53% 8,641 63.90% 77 0.57% 3,837 28.38% 13,522
Hampton 29,971 66.45% 14,651 32.48% 482 1.07% −15,320 −33.97% 45,104
Hanover 18,107 31.24% 39,515 68.18% 338 0.58% 21,408 36.94% 57,960
Harrisonburg 6,812 60.09% 4,382 38.65% 143 1.26% −2,430 −21.43% 11,337
Henrico 81,409 58.71% 55,796 40.24% 1,462 1.05% −25,613 −18.47% 138,667
Henry 5,547 29.93% 12,902 69.61% 87 0.47% 7,355 39.68% 18,536
Highland 325 24.94% 969 74.37% 9 0.69% 644 49.42% 1,303
Hopewell 3,085 49.16% 3,095 49.31% 96 1.53% 10 0.16% 6,276
Isle of Wight 6,565 35.16% 12,000 64.26% 108 0.58% 5,435 29.11% 18,673
James City 18,836 46.98% 21,048 52.50% 207 0.52% 2,212 5.52% 40,091
King and Queen 1,130 34.65% 2,112 64.77% 19 0.58% 982 30.11% 3,261
King George 3,317 31.00% 7,286 68.09% 98 0.92% 3,969 37.09% 10,701
King William 2,247 26.21% 6,286 73.33% 39 0.45% 4,039 47.12% 8,572
Lancaster 2,406 40.97% 3,448 58.71% 19 0.32% 1,042 17.74% 5,873
Lee 882 12.13% 6,372 87.60% 20 0.27% 5,490 75.47% 7,274
Lexington 1,289 62.03% 775 37.30% 14 0.67% −514 −24.74% 2,078
Loudoun 89,390 55.25% 71,467 44.17% 937 0.58% −17,923 −11.08% 161,794
Louisa 5,896 33.43% 11,649 66.04% 94 0.53% 5,753 32.62% 17,639
Lunenburg 1,567 34.09% 3,019 65.67% 11 0.24% 1,452 31.59% 4,597
Lynchburg 11,000 44.17% 13,668 54.89% 233 0.94% 2,668 10.71% 24,901
Madison 1,973 29.33% 4,721 70.17% 34 0.51% 2,748 40.84% 6,728
Manassas 6,155 54.44% 5,050 44.67% 101 0.89% −1,105 −9.77% 11,306
Manassas Park 2,158 59.99% 1,379 38.34% 60 1.67% −779 −21.66% 3,597
Martinsville 2,224 56.38% 1,676 42.48% 45 1.14% −548 −13.89% 3,945
Mathews 1,363 27.92% 3,493 71.56% 25 0.51% 2,130 43.64% 4,881
Mecklenburg 4,075 33.85% 7,922 65.81% 40 0.33% 3,847 31.96% 12,037
Middlesex 1,860 33.14% 3,703 65.97% 50 0.89% 1,843 32.83% 5,613
Montgomery 15,355 46.82% 17,041 51.96% 399 1.22% 1,686 5.14% 32,795
Nelson 3,346 43.57% 4,259 55.46% 75 0.98% 913 11.89% 7,680
New Kent 3,439 28.50% 8,569 71.02% 58 0.48% 5,130 42.52% 12,066
Newport News 32,399 59.69% 21,241 39.14% 636 1.17% −11,158 −20.56% 54,276
Norfolk 40,324 67.14% 18,888 31.45% 849 1.41% −21,436 −35.69% 60,061
Northampton 2,584 49.09% 2,650 50.34% 30 0.57% 66 1.25% 5,264
Northumberland 2,312 35.48% 4,167 63.95% 37 0.57% 1,855 28.47% 6,516
Norton 320 26.60% 866 71.99% 17 1.41% 546 45.39% 1,203
Nottoway 1,892 34.93% 3,497 64.57% 27 0.50% 1,605 29.63% 5,416
Orange 5,351 33.22% 10,670 66.23% 89 0.55% 5,319 33.02% 16,110
Page 1,995 20.73% 7,594 78.92% 33 0.34% 5,599 58.19% 9,622
Patrick 1,255 17.34% 5,946 82.14% 38 0.52% 4,691 64.80% 7,239
Petersburg 7,591 84.87% 1,207 13.50% 146 1.63% −6,384 −71.38% 8,944
Pittsylvania 6,319 24.35% 19,543 75.31% 88 0.34% 13,224 50.96% 25,950
Poquoson 1,364 21.66% 4,897 77.75% 37 0.59% 3,533 56.10% 6,298
Portsmouth 19,513 65.41% 9,946 33.34% 374 1.25% −9,567 −32.07% 29,833
Powhatan 3,721 22.73% 12,582 76.86% 68 0.42% 8,861 54.13% 16,371
Prince Edward 3,210 45.05% 3,876 54.40% 39 0.55% 666 9.35% 7,125
Prince George 4,577 34.62% 8,548 64.65% 97 0.73% 3,971 30.03% 13,222
Prince William 87,352 57.01% 64,658 42.20% 1,208 0.79% −22,694 −14.81% 153,218
Pulaski 3,277 25.20% 9,631 74.06% 97 0.75% 6,354 48.86% 13,005
Radford 1,879 44.80% 2,266 54.03% 49 1.17% 387 9.23% 4,194
Rappahannock 1,686 39.98% 2,507 59.45% 24 0.57% 821 19.47% 4,217
Richmond City 61,929 77.27% 15,713 19.61% 2,500 3.12% −46,216 −57.67% 80,142
Richmond County 936 29.41% 2,225 69.90% 22 0.69% 1,289 40.50% 3,183
Roanoke City 16,817 57.70% 12,024 41.25% 306 1.05% −4,793 −16.44% 29,147
Roanoke County 14,445 33.70% 28,157 65.70% 257 0.60% 13,712 31.99% 42,859
Rockbridge 3,071 30.64% 6,906 68.89% 47 0.47% 3,835 38.26% 10,024
Rockingham 8,569 24.11% 26,765 75.31% 205 0.58% 18,196 51.20% 35,539
Russell 1,452 14.97% 8,229 84.83% 20 0.21% 6,777 69.86% 9,701
Salem 3,344 34.99% 6,144 64.29% 68 0.71% 2,800 29.30% 9,556
Scott 1,034 12.72% 7,065 86.89% 32 0.39% 6,031 74.17% 8,131
Shenandoah 4,535 24.72% 13,693 74.64% 118 0.64% 9,158 49.92% 18,346
Smyth 1,751 17.05% 8,477 82.55% 41 0.40% 6,726 65.50% 10,269
Southampton 2,717 34.68% 5,084 64.90% 33 0.42% 2,367 30.21% 7,834
Spotsylvania 21,426 39.47% 32,478 59.84% 375 0.69% 11,052 20.36% 54,279
Stafford 25,463 44.20% 31,680 55.00% 460 0.80% 6,217 10.79% 57,603
Staunton 5,004 51.21% 4,640 47.49% 127 1.30% −364 −3.73% 9,771
Suffolk 19,079 51.96% 17,351 47.26% 286 0.78% −1,728 −4.71% 36,716
Surry 1,756 49.66% 1,768 50.00% 12 0.34% 12 0.34% 3,536
Sussex 2,028 50.39% 1,973 49.02% 24 0.60% −55 −1.37% 4,025
Tazewell 1,821 13.09% 12,045 86.59% 44 0.32% 10,224 73.50% 13,910
Virginia Beach 73,965 45.60% 86,973 53.62% 1,259 0.78% 13,008 8.02% 162,197
Warren 4,328 27.53% 11,294 71.85% 97 0.62% 6,966 44.32% 15,719
Washington 4,505 20.48% 17,395 79.08% 96 0.44% 12,890 58.60% 21,996
Waynesboro 3,275 41.69% 4,473 56.94% 108 1.37% 1,198 15.25% 7,856
Westmoreland 2,971 38.99% 4,614 60.55% 35 0.46% 1,643 21.56% 7,620
Williamsburg 3,185 64.59% 1,703 34.54% 43 0.87% −1,482 −30.05% 4,931
Winchester 4,294 50.54% 4,137 48.69% 65 0.77% −157 −1.85% 8,496
Wise 1,796 15.55% 9,691 83.90% 64 0.55% 7,895 68.35% 11,551
Wythe 2,043 17.67% 9,458 81.78% 64 0.55% 7,415 64.12% 11,565
York 12,190 40.85% 17,485 58.59% 166 0.56% 5,295 17.74% 29,841
Totals1,599,47048.64%1,663,15850.58%25,6990.78%63,6881.94%3,288,327
Close

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By region and precinct

Results by region[s]
Results in the Shenandoah Valley
Results in Northern Virginia
Results in Central Virginia
Results in Southwest Virginia
Results in Southside
Results in Hampton Roads

By congressional district

Youngkin won six of 11 congressional districts, including two that were held by Democratic U.S. representatives at the time. He also flipped Virginia's 2nd congressional district which was previously won by Ralph Northam in 2017.[308][309]

More information District, Youngkin ...
District Youngkin McAuliffe Blanding Representative
1st 58.6% 40.7% 0.7% Rob Wittman
2nd 53.7% 45.5% 0.8% Elaine Luria
3rd 37.0% 61.9% 1.1% Bobby Scott
4th 42.6% 55.9% 1.5% Donald McEachin
5th 59.7% 39.7% 0.6% Bob Good
6th 66.0% 33.3% 0.7% Ben Cline
7th 55.0% 44.3% 0.7% Abigail Spanberger
8th 26.8% 72.5% 0.8% Don Beyer
9th 74.6% 24.8% 0.8% Morgan Griffith
10th 47.4% 52.0% 0.6% Jennifer Wexton
11th 32.6% 66.6% 0.8% Gerry Connolly
Close

Analysis

Youngkin won the election, 50.6% to 48.6%.[2][310] The margin of victory was the narrowest margin in a Virginia gubernatorial election since 1989. McAuliffe conceded the day after the election and congratulated Youngkin, saying he was "proud" to campaign "for the values we so deeply believe in".[311][312] Republicans also flipped the lieutenant governor and attorney general races that were held concurrently,[313] as well as took control of the Virginia House of Delegates. This election, as well as the concurrent elections for lieutenant governor and attorney general, marked the first time since the 1969 gubernatorial election that a Republican won Virginia without Loudoun County, and the first time since the 1960 presidential election that a Republican won statewide without Prince William County. This is the first time Surry County backed the Republican candidate since John Warner's largely uncontested re-election in 2002 and the first time Prince Edward County or Northampton County voted Republican since 2009. This is also the first time any Virginia statewide candidate has won without at least one of the three Northern Virginia counties of Loudoun, Prince William, Fairfax, or the independent cities therein. This was the first gubernatorial election since 1989 in which Democrats failed to flip any counties. Over 3.28 million votes were cast, exceeding the 2017 gubernatorial election total by roughly 625,000 and exceeding all other previous Virginia gubernatorial elections by over a million.

Youngkin's victory is attributed to the "Youngkin coalition" of largely Trump supporters and suburbanites, which contributed to a Republican victory in the state.[314][315][316] The appeal to suburban voters, who have shifted away from the Republican Party as Donald Trump increasingly influenced it, was attributed to Youngkin's distancing from Trump and hesitancy to openly embrace him.[315] Youngkin's performance in the suburbs near Washington, D.C. were stronger than that of Trump's margins in the 2020 United States presidential election.[17] During the final days preceding the general election held on November 2, Youngkin campaigned in the Washington metropolitan area suburbs of Northern Virginia.[317] Previous similar attempts to combine a coalition of Trump supporters and suburban voters, including Ed Gillespie's run for governor in 2017, were met with failure.[318] Youngkin's victory was consistent with gubernatorial candidates of the opposing party as the incumbent president usually winning in Virginia, with the notable exception of McAuliffe's victory in 2013.

Exit poll

More information Demographic subgroup, Youngkin ...
2021 Virginia gubernatorial election voter demographics (CNN)[319]
Demographic subgroup Youngkin McAuliffe % of
total vote
Ideology
Liberals 6 93 23
Moderates 39 60 41
Conservatives 93 7 36
Party
Democrats 4 96 36
Republicans 97 3 34
Independents 54 45 30
Gender
Men 56 44 48
Women 46 53 52
Race/ethnicity
White 62 38 73
Black 13 86 16
Latino 32 66 5
Asian 33 67 3
Gender by race
White men 66 34 36
White women 57 43 37
Black men 13 86 7
Black women 14 86 9
Latino men (of any race) N/A N/A 2
Latino women (of any race) 23 75 3
Other racial/ethnic groups 38 62 5
Age
18–24 years old 47 52 5
25–29 years old 43 54 5
30–39 years old 47 53 13
40–49 years old 51 48 18
50–64 years old 52 48 34
65 and older 55 45 26
2020 presidential vote
Biden 5 95 48
Trump 98 2 44
Education
Never attended college 61 38 15
Some college education 58 41 24
Associate degree 58 42 12
Bachelor's degree 44 55 25
Advanced degree 40 60 24
Education by race
White college graduates 47 52 37
White no college degree 76 24 36
Non-white college graduates 25 75 11
Non-white no college degree 20 79 15
Education by gender/race
White women with college degrees 39 61 18
White women without college degrees 74 25 19
White men with college degrees 55 44 19
White men without college degrees 78 22 17
Non-white 22 77 27
Issue regarded as most important
Taxes 68 32 15
Economy 55 44 33
Education 53 47 24
Coronavirus 16 84 15
Abortion 58 41 8
Abortion should be
Legal 26 73 58
Illegal 87 13 37
Region
DC Suburbs 36 64 29
Central Virginia 59 40 18
Hampton Roads 46 54 15
Richmond/Southside 50 50 18
Mountain 70 30 20
Area type
Urban 32 67 21
Suburban 53 46 60
Rural 63 36 19
Close

See also

Notes

  1. [a]
  2. [b]
    Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. [c]
    Carter registered as an Independent in 2022, but was a Democrat when making the endorsement.
  4. [d]
    Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  5. [e]
    Blanding with 2%
  6. [f]
    Blanding with 1%
  7. [g]
    Blanding with 3%; "Would not vote" and "None of these" with 1%
  8. [h]
    "Neither" with 2%; "Would not vote" with 1%
  9. [i]
    Blanding with 1%; "Would not vote" and "None of these" with 0%
  10. [j]
    "Would not vote" and "Neither" with 0%
  11. [k]
    Blanding with 5%
  12. [l]
    Weighted toward more low-propensity voters
  13. [m]
    Weighted toward fewer low-propensity voters
  14. [n]
    Blanding with 1%; Other with 1%
  15. [o]
    Blanding with 2%; "None/Would not vote" with 5%; "other/write-in" with 1%
  16. [p]
    Blanding with 2%; "None/Would not vote" and "other/write-in" with 1%
  17. [q]
    Blanding with 3%
  18. [r]
    Blanding with 2%; Other with 1%
  19. [s]
    Regions defined in The Washington Post.[307]

Partisan clients

  1. [A]
    This poll was sponsored by Carroll Foy's campaign
  2. [B]
    This poll was sponsored by McClellan's campaign
  3. [C]
    This poll was sponsored by the Democratic Governors Association
  4. [D]
    This poll was sponsored by Youngkin's campaign
  5. [E]
    This poll was sponsored by WTTG
  6. [F]
    This poll was sponsored by Winsome Sears's campaign for Lieutenant Governor
  7. [G]
    This poll was sponsored by the Presidential Coalition
  8. [H]
    This poll was sponsored by Power for Tomorrow
  9. [I]
    This poll was sponsored by Protect Our Care
  10. [J]
    This poll was sponsored by Youngkin's campaign
  11. [K]
    This poll was sponsored by the Virginia League of Conservation Voters
  12. [L]
    This poll was sponsored by Crooked Media
  13. [M]
    This poll was sponsored by Future Majority
  14. [N]
    This poll was sponsored by Conservatives for Clean Energy – VA
  15. [O]
    This poll was sponsored by the American Principles Project
  16. [P]
    This poll was sponsored by CNalysis

References

External links

Related Articles

Wikiwand AI