2025 Virginia gubernatorial election
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2025 Virginia gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2025, to elect the governor of Virginia. The election was held concurrently with elections for Virginia's other statewide offices, the House of Delegates, and other local offices. Incumbent Republican governor Glenn Youngkin was ineligible to seek re-election to a second consecutive term due to the state's prohibition on consecutive gubernatorial terms.
.jpg)
 | |||||||||||||||||
November 4, 2025
| |||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 54.22%  0.68[1] | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |||||||||||||||||
_V4.svg)
Spanberger: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Earle-Sears: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
.jpg)
Neither Republican lieutenant governor Winsome Earle-Sears nor former Democratic U.S. representative Abigail Spanberger received opposition in their respective primaries. In April 2025, Spanberger and Earle-Sears were confirmed as the major party nominees.[2][3][4] Spanberger defeated Earle-Sears by 527,271 votes which is the largest raw vote margin in state history. She won by 15.36% — the largest gubernatorial percentage margin since 2009.[5][6] Democrats won all three statewide executive offices and a trifecta in Virginia's government for the first time since 2019.[7]
The central issues of the campaign were the economy and affordability, which included the federal layoffs from the Trump administration. Transgender rights and political rhetoric followed behind as secondary issues.[8][9][10] President Trump's general unpopularity and perceived performance on the economy, healthcare, immigration, and other issues were viewed as contributing factors for Earle-Sears's loss.[11][12]
Spanberger was elected the first female governor in the state's history, winning by the largest Democratic gubernatorial margin since 1961.[13][14] She was sworn in as the 75th governor of Virginia on January 17, 2026.[15]
Background
Since the 2008 presidential election, Virginia has voted Democratic for president, due in part to Northern Virginia's growth and Democratic trends. In the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris won the state by 5.78%. After the 2024 Virginia elections, Democrats maintained control of both U.S. Senate seats and their 6-5 majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.[16][a]
In the 2021 gubernatorial election, Youngkin defeated Terry McAuliffe by two points, after Joe Biden won the state in 2020 by 10 points. The central issues were the economy and education, which led to Republican flips in all three statewide executive offices and the House of Delegates.[17] In the 2023 Virginia elections, Democrats narrowly flipped the House of Delegates and maintained control of the Virginia Senate due to the issue of abortion rights.[18]
In the 2024 presidential election, Republican Donald Trump was re-elected into office, which Democrats hoped would energize their voter base in the off-year elections. Trump's personal popularity and voters' position on the economy were viewed as crucial to the gubernatorial race.[19] In January 2025, President Trump and Elon Musk introduced the Department of Government Efficiency.[b] DOGE laid off thousands of federal workers, which were relevant in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads, since 140,000 federal workers resided in the state. Since 1977, Virginia elected the party out of presidential power for governor – with the exception of 2013 – which made Democrats the initial favorite.[20]
Due to Virginia's blue lean, the state was viewed as a likely gubernatorial pickup for Democrats as national circumstances were unfavorable for Republicans.[21] The economy became the most prominent issue, while healthcare and education followed as secondary issues.[22] The concern on the economy was based on tariffs and federal cuts from the Trump Administration.[23][24]
Republican primary
Background
On September 4, 2024, Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears declared her candidacy for governor. She received criticism from Attorney General Jason Miyares for making her announcement ahead of the 2024 presidential election. Miyares was widely viewed as a potential candidate for the Republican nomination.[25]
In November 2024, he declined to run for governor and unsuccessfully ran for reelection as attorney general in 2025. After his declination, Earle-Sears was viewed as the presumptive nominee.[26]
Campaign
On February 27, Earle-Sears received opposition from former state senator Amanda Chase and former state delegate Dave LaRock. They affiliated themselves more with President Trump and criticized Earle-Sears's previous comments about him. Despite the newfound opposition, Earle-Sears was still viewed as the favorite in the primary.[27][28]
Neither Chase nor LaRock reached the signature deadline before April 5 to qualify for the primary ballot.[29]
On April 5, Earle-Sears secured the Republican nomination for governor.[4]
Candidates
Nominee
- Winsome Earle-Sears, lieutenant governor of Virginia (2022–2026)[4]
Failed to qualify
- Amanda Chase, former state senator for SD-11 (2016–2024), and candidate for governor in 2021[30]
- Dave LaRock, former state delegate for HD-33 (2014–2024), and candidate for SD-1 in 2023[30]
Declined
- Jason Miyares, attorney general of Virginia (2022–2026) (ran for re-election)[31]
- Rob Wittman, U.S. representative from Virginia's 1st congressional district (2007–present) (running for re-election in 2026)[32]
Endorsements
State senators
- Doug Mastriano, Pennsylvania state senator for SD-33 (2019–present)[33]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Jason Miyares |
Winsome Earle-Sears |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cygnal (R)[34] | October 27–29, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 12% | 48% | 40% |
| Cygnal (R)[35] | March 13–14, 2024 | 510 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 16% | 44% | 41% |
| Differentiators Data[36] | February 21–24, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 17% | 48% | 35% |
Fundraising
| Primary campaign finance activity through March 31, 2025 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Winsome Earle-Sears | $5,677,456 | $1,630,867 | $4,046,590 |
| Amanda Chase (failed to qualify) | $34,835 | $51,204 | $1,538 |
| Dave LaRock (failed to qualify) | $26,874 | $25,813 | $1,060 |
| Source: Virginia Public Access Project[37] | |||
Democratic primary
Background
In 2020, Governor Ralph Northam encouraged Abigail Spanberger to someday run for governor.[38] On November 13, 2023, she announced her candidacy and did not run for re-election in the House of Representatives in 2024.[39]
Campaign
In December 2023, Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney, declared his candidacy. His low statewide name recognition meant Spanberger was viewed as the favorite to win the primary.[40][41] There was private pressure for Stoney to drop out of the race for Spanberger. In April 2024 – a year before the filing deadline – Stoney withdrew from the race to "avoid a costly and damaging primary" and unsuccessfully ran for lieutenant governor.[42]
In December 2024, U.S. Representative Bobby Scott, explored the possibility of running for governor, despite doubt from internal sources over whether he would actually do so.[43] In February 2025, Scott hinted he would not run for governor and ultimately did not file a candidacy.[44]
On April 3, Spanberger secured the Democratic nomination after no other candidacies were filed.[45]
Candidates
Nominee
- Abigail Spanberger, former U.S. representative from Virginia's 7th congressional district (2019–2025)[39][45]
Withdrawn
- Levar Stoney, mayor of Richmond (2017–2025), and former Virginia secretary of the commonwealth (2014–2016) (ran for lieutenant governor)[40][42]
Declined
- Bobby Scott, U.S. representative from Virginia's 3rd congressional district (1993–present)[43][44]
Endorsements
State legislators
- Louise Lucas, president pro tempore of the Virginia Senate (2020–present) from the 18th district (1992–present)[46] (previously endorsed Stoney)
State officials
- Terry McAuliffe, former governor of Virginia (2014–2018), former chair of the Democratic National Committee (2001–2005) and nominee for governor in 2021[47]
- Molly Joseph Ward, former Virginia secretary of natural resources (2014–2018)[48]
State legislators
- Lamont Bagby, state senator from the 9th district (2023–present)[48]
- Creigh Deeds, state senator from the 11th district (2001–present)[48]
- Michael Jones, state delegate from the 77th district (2024–present)[48]
- Mamie Locke, state senator from the 2nd district (2004–present)[48]
- Louise Lucas, president pro tempore of the Virginia Senate (2020–present) from the 18th district (1992–present)[49]
Local officials
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Abigail Spanberger |
Levar Stoney |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoney withdraws from the race | ||||||
| Public Policy Polling (D)[50][A] | March 25–26, 2024 | 734 (LV) | — | 44% | 11% | 45% |
| Christopher Newport University[41] | January 11–16, 2024 | 1000 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 52% | 8% | 40% |
Fundraising
| Primary campaign finance activity through March 31, 2025 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Abigail Spanberger | $16,301,998 | $5,297,212 | $11,004,790 |
| Source: Virginia Public Access Project[37] | |||
Third parties and independents
Candidates
Withdrawn
- Donna Charles (write-in candidate), former U.S. Air Force officer and federal civil servant (endorsed Spanberger)[51]
General election
Campaign
.JPG)
This was the first gubernatorial election in the state's history in which both major party nominees were women.[52] President Trump instated tariffs on other nations including Canada and China. The tariffs were expected to increase prices on consumer goods from companies who relied on foreign imports. Spanberger disagreed with the tariffs and said they were "... a massive tax hike on Virginians — plain and simple."[53]
Virginia Democrats highlighted Earle-Sears's conservative positions on social issues and support for tariffs.[54] After the June primaries, the economy emerged as the main issue for both campaigns. Spanberger's campaign message was focused on affordability: she continued to oppose federal layoffs and tariffs from the Trump administration. Earle-Sears pledged to continue Youngkin's economic policies.[55] After Earle-Sears replaced her campaign manager, there were internal concerns from the Virginia Republican Party over how her campaign was managed. By July, Spanberger significantly outraised Earle-Sears, while there was lack of Republican investment in the race compared to 2021.[56][57]
Earle-Sears's statements on federal workers throughout the campaign were criticized as "self-inflicted wounds" and supportive of President Trump's DOGE cuts.[58] Earle-Sears began to focus on transgender policies in Northern Virginia's schools, which mirrored Youngkin's focus on critical race theory in 2021. On August 21, Earle-Sears's speech at an Arlington County School Board meeting received protests. One protest sign stated, "Hey Winsome, if trans [sic] can’t share your bathroom, then Blacks can’t share my water fountain." The sign received media attention and condemnation from Spanberger and Earle-Sears.[59] Spanberger continued to campaign on affordability issues, which remained the top issue for voters. She campaigned in Southwest Virginia and attempted to win over rural voters who voted Trump in 2024.[60][61] By October, Earle-Sears ran mainly on anti-transgender policies in schools. Earle-Sears ran attack ads against Spanberger which resembled the "Kamala is for they/them" ad from the 2024 presidential election. She spent $2 million on anti-transgender and anti-woke ads, which made up a significant portion of her campaign advertisements.[8][62][63]
On October 1, a federal government shutdown began, which further affected federal workers and became a central issue by the end of the campaign. According to several polls, the Republican Party was largely blamed for the shutdown. Both Spanberger and Earle-Sears opposed the shutdown, while Spanberger tied the shutdown to President Trump's policies on federal workers.[64][65] Political violence became another central issue to the campaign after the Charlie Kirk assassination, which Republicans hoped would energize low-turnout voters.[66] The conservative National Review released text messages from Jay Jones—the Democratic nominee for attorney general—which referred to former Republican speaker Todd Gilbert: "If those guys die before me...I will go to their funerals to piss on their graves." He also stated, "Three people, two bullets. Gilbert, hitler, and pol pot. Gilbert gets two bullets to the head. Spoiler: put Gilbert in the crew with the two worst people you know and he receives both bullets every time." He reportedly fantasized about the death of Gilbert's children.[67]
The text messages were criticized by President Trump, Glenn Youngkin, and other prominent Republicans officials who called for Jones to withdraw from the race. Spanberger condemned the text messages but did not call for him to withdraw from the race. Earle-Sears attempted to tie Jones to Spanberger and spent $1 million on attack ads, which criticized Spanberger's stance on Jones' text messages. Democrats largely defended Spanberger's response to the messages, while the messages themselves received significant media attention.[66][68][69][70] At James Madison University's football game, one fan shouted at Earle-Sears, "Go back to Haiti." The event received condemnation from the university, and the fan was banned from the university.[71]
Former president Barack Obama appeared in two ads for Spanberger's campaign which highlighted abortion rights and economic issues. Obama further criticized President Trump's policies.[72] Other national figures campaigned for Spanberger, including Pete Buttigieg, Andy Beshear, Ruben Gallego, Josh Shapiro, and Wes Moore.[73][74][75] Obama and Spanberger held a high-profile rally in Norfolk known as the "Virginia Votes Rally." Obama's speech focused on the economy, democracy, and Trump—most of Spanberger's advertisements continued to tie Earle-Sears to Trump.[76][77] Trump did not campaign with nor officially endorse Earle-Sears; however, he did support her over Spanberger.[78][79]
Debate
Both Spanberger and Earle-Sears initially declined to debate. In August, they agreed to meet on October 9 at Norfolk State University for one televised debate.[80]
Topics discussed during the debate included repeal of the car tax, political violence and rhetoric, the federal government shutdown, economic policies on data centers, affordability, transgender policies in schools, reproductive rights, immigration, education, and marijuana legalization.[81] Earle-Sears's debate style was described as "aggressive" as she frequently interrupted Spanberger. Spanberger sometimes "simply stood silent" and did not answer Earle-Sears's questions directed toward her. Earle-Sears made Jay Jones's messages and transgender policies a central part of her messaging.[82]
Spanberger condemned Jones's text messages but did not call for him to withdraw from the race. She declined to state if she would renew her endorsement of Jones. Earle-Sears pressured Spanberger to call for Jones to withdraw from the race.[83] Both candidates attacked each other on political violence and rhetoric. On education, Earle-Sears called for policies that would ban transgender students from bathrooms and sports which do not conform to their birth sex; Spanberger called for local control over transgender policies in schools.[84] Both Earle-Sears and Spanberger called for bipartisan support to end the shutdown.[85]
Earle-Sears, who was not endorsed by Trump, stated, "I will take all endorsements, including the president." According to CNN, Spanberger "went on offense" when she said Earle-Sears previously opposed same-sex marriage; Earle-Sears responded by saying, "That's not discrimination."[86]
Analysis
Political analyst David Richards said Spanberger won the debate: "Earle-Sears’ attempts to drag Spanberger into the Jay Jones scandal were unsuccessful. Overall, I’d give Spanberger a small edge because she seemed calmer and more professional." On their separate performances, Richards stated, "Spanberger held her own and came off as much more polished and capable, if not a little cold. Earle-Sears often came across as slightly unhinged."[84]
When asked in an October interview about her debate response where she stated, "That's not discrimination", Earle-Sears stated, "I was thinking that I was saying, 'I'm not discriminating.'"[87]
| No. | Date | Host | Moderators | Link | Republican | Democratic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
||||||
| Earle-Sears | Spanberger | |||||
| 1 | October 9, 2025 | WAVY-TV Norfolk State University |
Deanna Albrittin Tom Schaad |
[88] | P | P |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[89] | Likely D (flip) | September 11, 2025 |
| Inside Elections[90] | Lean D (flip) | August 28, 2025 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[91] | Likely D (flip) | September 4, 2025 |
| Race to the WH[92] | Lean D (flip) | November 4, 2025 |
| State Navigate[93] | Solid D (flip) | August 22, 2025 |
Endorsements
- U.S. representatives
- Byron Donalds, FL-19 (2021–present)[94]
- Thelma Drake, VA-2 (2005–2009)[95]
- Jen Kiggans, VA-2 (2023–present)[96]
- John McGuire, VA-5 (2025–present)[97]
- Rob Wittman, VA-1 (2007–present)[98]
- Statewide officials
- Bob McDonnell, former governor of Virginia (2010–2014)[94]
- Jason Miyares, attorney general of Virginia (2022–2026)[96]
- Glenn Youngkin, governor of Virginia (2022–2026)[99]
- State legislators
- Tammy Brankley Mulchi, state senator from the 9th district (2024–present)[95]
- Mark Obenshain, state senator from the 2nd district (2004–present)[100]
- A.C. Cordoza, state delegate from the 86th (2024–present) and 91st districts (2022–2024)[95]
- Joseph McNamara, state delegate from the 40th district (2018–present)[95]
- David Suetterlein, state senator from the 4th district (2023–present)[95]
- Local officials
- Five commonwealth's attorneys[96]
- 82 county sheriffs[101][95]
- Bobby Dyer, mayor of Virginia Beach (2018–present)[95]
- Individuals
- Vivek Ramaswamy, former CEO of Roivant Sciences and 2024 presidential candidate[102]
- Organizations
- Executive branch officials
- Pete Buttigieg, U.S. secretary of transportation (2021–2025)[109]
- Barack Obama, 44th president of the United States (2009–2017)[110]
- U.S. Senators
- Tim Kaine, Virginia (2013–present)[111]
- Elissa Slotkin, Michigan (2025–present)[112]
- Mark Warner, Virginia (2009–present)[111]
- U.S. representatives
- Don Beyer, VA-8 (2015–present)[113]
- Barbara Comstock, VA-10 (2015–2019) (Republican)[114]
- Gerry Connolly, VA-11 (2009–2025)[113] (deceased)
- Jennifer McClellan, VA-4 (2023–present)[112]
- Tom Perriello, VA-5 (2009–2011)[115]
- Denver Riggleman, VA-5 (2019–2021) (Independent)[d][114]
- Suhas Subramanyam, VA-10 (2025–present)[116]
- Eugene Vindman, VA-7 (2025–present)[117]
- Jennifer Wexton, VA-10 (2019–2025)[118]
- Statewide officials
- Wes Moore, governor of Maryland (2023–present)[119]
- Ralph Northam, former governor of Virginia (2018–2022)[118]
- Josh Shapiro, governor of Pennsylvania (2023–present)[120]
- State legislators
- Louise Lucas, president pro tempore of the Virginia Senate (2020–present) from the 18th district (1992–present)[121]
- Joe Morrissey, state senator from the 16th district (2020–2024)[122]
- Don Scott, speaker of the Virginia House of Delegates (2024–present) from the 88th district (2020–present)[123]
- Individuals
- Labor unions
- Virginia Police Benevolent Association[124]
- UNITE HERE[125]
- American Federation of Government Employees[126]
- Organizations
- Armenian National Committee of America[127]
- Brady PAC[128]
- Clean Virginia[129]
- End Citizens United[130]
- EMILYs List[131]
- Everytown for Gun Safety[132]
- Giffords[133]
- Human Rights Campaign[134]
- LGBT Democrats of Virginia[135]
- National Organization for Women[136]
- Reproductive Freedom for All[137]
- Virginia League of Conservation Voters[138]
- Vote Mama[139]
- VoteVets[140]
Polling
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Abigail Spanberger (D) |
Winsome Earle-Sears (R) |
Other/Undecided [e] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270toWin[141] | October 27 – November 3, 2025 | November 3, 2025 | 53.3% | 43.1% | 3.6% | Spanberger +10.2% |
| Decision Desk HQ[142] | through November 3, 2025 | November 3, 2025 | 52.3% | 43.1% | 4.6% | Spanberger +9.2% |
| FiftyPlusOne[143] | through November 3, 2025 | November 3, 2025 | 53.1% | 42.4% | 4.5% | Spanberger +10.7% |
| Race to the WH[144] | through November 3, 2025 | November 4, 2025 | 52.3% | 42.8% | 4.9% | Spanberger +9.5% |
| RealClearPolitics[145] | October 16 – November 3, 2025 | November 3, 2025 | 52.9% | 42.7% | 4.4% | Spanberger +10.2% |
| VoteHub[146] | through November 3, 2025 | November 3, 2025 | 52.1% | 42.9% | 5.0% | Spanberger +9.2% |
| Average | 52.7% | 42.8% | 4.5% | Spanberger +9.9% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Winsome Earle-Sears (R) |
Abigail Spanberger (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus Insights (R)[147] | November 3, 2025 | 1,201 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 44% | 53% | 1% | 2% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[148] | November 2–3, 2025 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 50% | 5%[f] | 5% |
| Research Co.[149] | November 2–3, 2025 | 423 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 46% | 54% | – | – |
| 450 (LV) | 43% | 51% | – | 6% | |||
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[150] | November 1–2, 2025 | 1,057 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 43% | 50% | 1%[g] | 6% |
| Emerson College[151][B] | October 30–31, 2025 | 880 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 55% | 0% | 1% |
| Echelon Insights[152] | October 28–31, 2025 | 606 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 43% | 55% | – | 2% |
| AtlasIntel[153] | October 25–30, 2025 | 1,325 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 54% | 0%[h] | 1% |
| SoCal Strategies (R)[154][C] | October 28–29, 2025 | 800 (LV) | – | 43% | 53% | – | 4% |
| State Navigate[155] | October 26–28, 2025 | 614 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 54% | – | 5% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)/ The Trafalgar Group (R)[156] |
October 27–28, 2025 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 46% | 4%[i] | 8% |
| Roanoke College[157] | October 22–27, 2025 | 1,041 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 41% | 51% | 3%[j] | 5% |
| YouGov[158] | October 17–28, 2025 | 1,179 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 57% | 2% | – |
| 41% | 55% | 0% | 4% | ||||
| A2 Insights[159] | October 24–26, 2025 | 776 (LV) | – | 46% | 54% | – | 1% |
| Christopher Newport University[160] | October 21–23, 2025 | 803 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 43% | 50% | – | 6% |
| Suffolk University[161] | October 19–21, 2025 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 52% | 1%[k] | 4% |
| Quantus Insights (R)[162] | October 19–20, 2025 | 1,302 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 46% | 51% | 1% | 2% |
| State Navigate[163] | October 17–20, 2025 | 694 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 55% | – | 3% |
| The Washington Post/Schar School[164] | October 16–20, 2025 | 927 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 54% | 2%[l] | 2% |
| 927 (RV) | 40% | 53% | 5%[m] | 2% | |||
| Kaplan Strategies (R)[165] | October 16–18, 2025 | 556 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 41% | 51% | – | 7% |
| co/efficient (R)[166] | October 15–17, 2025 | 937 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 49% | 1%[g] | 6% |
| Clarity Campaign Labs (D)[167][D] | October 14–17, 2025 | 958 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 43% | 53% | – | 4% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R)/ InsiderAdvantage (R)[168] |
October 13–15, 2025 | 1,039 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 45% | 47% | 1%[g] | 6% |
| Virginia Commonwealth University[169] | October 6–14, 2025 | 842 (A) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 49% | – | 9% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[170] | October 8–10, 2025 | 1,034 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 45% | 48% | 2%[n] | 6% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[171][E] | October 7–8, 2025 | 558 (RV) | – | 43% | 52% | – | 5% |
| Cygnal (R)[172] | October 6–7, 2025 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 49% | – | 6% |
| Christopher Newport University[173] | September 29 – October 1, 2025 | 805 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 42% | 52% | – | 6% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[174] | September 29 – October 1, 2025 | 1,034 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 42% | 47% | 2%[n] | 9% |
| Emerson College[175][B] | September 28–29, 2025 | 725 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 42% | 52% | – | 5% |
| The Washington Post/Schar School[176] | September 25–29, 2025 | 1,002 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 43% | 55% | 1%[o] | 2% |
| 1,002 (RV) | 40% | 53% | 4%[p] | 3% | |||
| A2 Insights[177] | September 16–28, 2025 | 771 (LV) | – | 45% | 48% | 1%[q] | 6% |
| co/efficient (R)[178] | September 22–23, 2025 | 1,024 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 49% | 1%[g] | 7% |
| OnMessage Inc. (R)[179] | September 15–18, 2025 | 800 (V) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 50% | – | 5% |
| Christopher Newport University[180] | September 8–14, 2025 | 808 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 40% | 52% | – | 8% |
| Cygnal (R)[172] | September 7, 2025 | – (V) | – | 43% | 50% | – | 7% |
| Pulse Decision Science (R)[181][F] | September 3–5, 2025 | 512 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 48% | 1%[g] | 8% |
| SoCal Strategies (R)[182][G] | August 31 – September 1, 2025 | 700 (LV) | – | 41% | 53% | – | 6% |
| Virginia Commonwealth University[183] | August 18–28, 2025 | 764 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 40% | 49% | 2%[r] | 11% |
| co/efficient (R)[184] | August 23–26, 2025 | 1,025 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 48% | 3%[s] | 7% |
| Roanoke College[185] | August 11–15, 2025 | 702 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 39% | 46% | 1%[t] | 14% |
| Wick Insights[186] | July 9–11, 2025 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 50% | 2%[n] | 8% |
| American Directions Research Group/AARP[187] | June 25–July 8, 2025 | 1,001 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 34% | 49% | 8%[u] | 9% |
| Virginia Commonwealth University[188] | June 19–July 3, 2025 | 806 (A) | ± 4.7% | 37% | 49% | 2%[r] | 12% |
| co/efficient (R)[189][H] | June 8–10, 2025 | 1,127 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 46% | 2%[n] | 9% |
| Roanoke College[190] | May 12–19, 2025 | 609 (RV) | ± 5.3% | 26% | 43% | 3%[v] | 28% |
| Pantheon Insight/HarrisX[191][I] | May 9–13, 2025 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 52% | – | – |
| 45% | 48% | 7%[w] | – | ||||
| Cygnal (R)[192] | February 26–28, 2025 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 46% | – | 14% |
| Roanoke College[193] | February 17–20, 2025 | 690 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 24% | 39% | 4%[x] | 33% |
| co/efficient (R)[194][J] | January 18–20, 2025 | 867 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 40% | 40% | 5%[y] | 15% |
| Virginia Commonwealth University[195] | December 18, 2024–January 15, 2025 | 806 (A) | ± 4.7% | 34% | 44% | 5%[z] | 17% |
| Christopher Newport University[196] | January 6–13, 2025 | 806 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 39% | 44% | 6%[aa] | 12% |
| Emerson College[197][B] | January 6–8, 2025 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 42% | 4%[x] | 13% |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy[198] | December 15–19, 2024 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 47% | – | 9% |
| Research America Inc.[199][K] | September 3–9, 2024 | 1,000 (A) | ± 3.1% | 39% | 39% | 10%[ab] | 12% |
| co/efficient (R)[200][H] | September 7–10, 2023 | 834 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 26% | 27% | – | 47% |
Winsome Earle-Sears vs. Bobby Scott
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Winsome Earle-Sears (R) |
Bobby Scott (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy[198] | December 15–19, 2024 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 44% | 10% |
Jason Miyares vs. Abigail Spanberger
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Abigail Spanberger | 1,976,857 | 57.58% | +8.94% | |
| Republican | Winsome Earle-Sears | 1,449,586 | 42.22% | −8.36% | |
| Write-in | 6,897 | 0.20% | +0.12% | ||
| Total votes | 3,433,340 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic gain from Republican | |||||
By county and independent city
| Locality[202] | Winsome Earle-Sears Republican |
Abigail Spanberger Democratic |
Write-in Various |
Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Accomack | 7,129 | 54.57% | 5,925 | 45.35% | 10 | 0.08% | −1,204 | −9.22% | 13,064 |
| Albemarle | 16,480 | 29.48% | 39,322 | 70.35% | 93 | 0.17% | 22,842 | 40.87% | 55,895 |
| Alexandria | 10,424 | 16.59% | 52,230 | 83.11% | 190 | 0.30% | 41,806 | 66.52% | 62,844 |
| Alleghany | 4,011 | 69.14% | 1,779 | 30.67% | 11 | 0.19% | −2,232 | −38.48% | 5,801 |
| Amelia | 4,521 | 71.08% | 1,831 | 28.79% | 8 | 0.13% | −2,690 | −42.30% | 6,360 |
| Amherst | 8,811 | 67.13% | 4,294 | 32.72% | 20 | 0.15% | −4,517 | −34.42% | 13,125 |
| Appomattox | 5,609 | 75.94% | 1,765 | 23.90% | 12 | 0.16% | −3,844 | −52.04% | 7,386 |
| Arlington | 15,929 | 15.96% | 83,657 | 83.81% | 235 | 0.24% | 67,728 | 67.85% | 99,821 |
| Augusta | 24,612 | 71.98% | 9,522 | 27.85% | 60 | 0.18% | −15,090 | −44.13% | 34,194 |
| Bath | 1,421 | 74.05% | 493 | 25.69% | 5 | 0.26% | −928 | −48.36% | 1,919 |
| Bedford | 29,166 | 74.27% | 10,048 | 25.59% | 57 | 0.15% | −19,118 | −48.68% | 39,271 |
| Bland | 1,974 | 81.64% | 441 | 18.24% | 3 | 0.12% | −1,533 | −63.40% | 2,418 |
| Botetourt | 11,820 | 70.27% | 4,969 | 29.54% | 32 | 0.19% | −6,851 | −40.73% | 16,821 |
| Bristol | 3,090 | 64.96% | 1,660 | 34.90% | 7 | 0.15% | −1,430 | −30.06% | 4,757 |
| Brunswick | 2,591 | 43.66% | 3,338 | 56.25% | 5 | 0.08% | 747 | 12.59% | 5,934 |
| Buchanan | 4,434 | 81.91% | 971 | 17.94% | 8 | 0.15% | −3,463 | −63.98% | 5,413 |
| Buckingham | 3,586 | 59.22% | 2,456 | 40.56% | 13 | 0.21% | −1,130 | −18.66% | 6,055 |
| Buena Vista | 1,392 | 66.38% | 696 | 33.19% | 9 | 0.43% | −696 | −33.19% | 2,097 |
| Campbell | 16,878 | 73.25% | 6,130 | 26.60% | 34 | 0.15% | −10,748 | −46.65% | 23,042 |
| Caroline | 6,680 | 49.72% | 6,733 | 50.11% | 23 | 0.17% | 53 | 0.39% | 13,436 |
| Carroll | 8,889 | 78.33% | 2,433 | 21.44% | 26 | 0.23% | −6,456 | −56.89% | 11,348 |
| Charles City | 1,485 | 42.53% | 2,002 | 57.33% | 5 | 0.14% | 517 | 14.81% | 3,492 |
| Charlotte | 3,159 | 67.07% | 1,545 | 32.80% | 6 | 0.13% | −1,614 | −34.27% | 4,710 |
| Charlottesville | 2,056 | 10.88% | 16,799 | 88.93% | 35 | 0.19% | 14,743 | 78.05% | 18,890 |
| Chesapeake | 42,147 | 43.77% | 53,971 | 56.06% | 164 | 0.17% | 11,824 | 12.28% | 96,282 |
| Chesterfield | 70,021 | 40.97% | 100,595 | 58.86% | 294 | 0.17% | 30,574 | 17.89% | 170,910 |
| Clarke | 4,222 | 55.34% | 3,389 | 44.42% | 18 | 0.24% | −833 | −10.92% | 7,629 |
| Colonial Heights | 4,092 | 62.12% | 2,474 | 37.56% | 21 | 0.32% | −1,618 | −24.56% | 6,587 |
| Covington | 999 | 59.57% | 678 | 40.43% | 0 | 0.00% | −321 | −19.14% | 1,677 |
| Craig | 1,806 | 79.25% | 467 | 20.49% | 6 | 0.26% | −1,339 | −58.75% | 2,279 |
| Culpeper | 12,592 | 57.66% | 9,214 | 42.19% | 33 | 0.15% | −3,378 | −15.47% | 21,839 |
| Cumberland | 2,609 | 59.03% | 1,803 | 40.79% | 8 | 0.18% | −806 | −18.24% | 4,420 |
| Danville | 4,592 | 37.34% | 7,678 | 62.43% | 29 | 0.24% | 3,086 | 25.09% | 12,299 |
| Dickenson | 3,427 | 76.80% | 1,028 | 23.04% | 7 | 0.16% | −2,399 | −53.77% | 4,462 |
| Dinwiddie | 7,028 | 58.19% | 5,031 | 41.65% | 19 | 0.16% | −1,997 | −16.53% | 12,078 |
| Emporia | 544 | 32.65% | 1,119 | 67.17% | 3 | 0.18% | 575 | 34.51% | 1,666 |
| Essex | 2,572 | 52.82% | 2,289 | 47.01% | 8 | 0.16% | −283 | −5.81% | 4,869 |
| Fairfax City | 2,847 | 27.28% | 7,552 | 72.37% | 36 | 0.34% | 4,705 | 45.09% | 10,435 |
| Fairfax County | 116,053 | 25.95% | 329,977 | 73.78% | 1,222 | 0.27% | 213,924 | 47.83% | 447,252 |
| Falls Church | 1,181 | 15.54% | 6,407 | 84.30% | 12 | 0.16% | 5,226 | 68.76% | 7,600 |
| Fauquier | 19,894 | 57.55% | 14,610 | 42.27% | 62 | 0.18% | −5,284 | −15.29% | 34,566 |
| Floyd | 4,806 | 64.73% | 2,603 | 35.06% | 16 | 0.22% | −2,203 | −29.67% | 7,425 |
| Fluvanna | 6,718 | 49.95% | 6,712 | 49.91% | 19 | 0.14% | −6 | −0.04% | 13,449 |
| Franklin City | 1,084 | 36.93% | 1,849 | 63.00% | 2 | 0.07% | 765 | 26.06% | 2,935 |
| Franklin County | 16,317 | 70.37% | 6,836 | 29.48% | 36 | 0.16% | −9,481 | −40.89% | 23,189 |
| Frederick | 23,130 | 59.32% | 15,809 | 40.55% | 51 | 0.13% | −7,321 | −18.78% | 38,990 |
| Fredericksburg | 2,943 | 27.93% | 7,561 | 71.76% | 33 | 0.31% | 4,618 | 43.83% | 10,537 |
| Galax | 1,284 | 68.23% | 597 | 31.72% | 1 | 0.05% | −687 | −36.50% | 1,882 |
| Giles | 4,983 | 73.48% | 1,782 | 26.28% | 16 | 0.24% | −3,201 | −47.21% | 6,781 |
| Gloucester | 11,399 | 65.73% | 5,912 | 34.09% | 30 | 0.17% | −5,487 | −31.64% | 17,341 |
| Goochland | 9,726 | 56.91% | 7,339 | 42.95% | 24 | 0.14% | −2,387 | −13.97% | 17,089 |
| Grayson | 4,614 | 78.35% | 1,264 | 21.46% | 11 | 0.19% | −3,350 | −56.89% | 5,889 |
| Greene | 5,458 | 57.39% | 4,036 | 42.44% | 16 | 0.17% | −1,422 | −14.95% | 9,510 |
| Greensville | 1,427 | 42.76% | 1,902 | 57.00% | 8 | 0.24% | 475 | 14.23% | 3,337 |
| Halifax | 8,027 | 60.26% | 5,272 | 39.58% | 22 | 0.17% | −2,755 | −20.68% | 13,321 |
| Hampton | 12,103 | 25.58% | 35,129 | 74.23% | 91 | 0.19% | 23,026 | 48.66% | 47,323 |
| Hanover | 36,278 | 60.10% | 23,994 | 39.75% | 95 | 0.16% | −12,284 | −20.35% | 60,367 |
| Harrisonburg | 3,654 | 27.70% | 9,512 | 72.12% | 23 | 0.17% | 5,858 | 44.42% | 13,189 |
| Henrico | 45,627 | 30.53% | 103,559 | 69.30% | 260 | 0.17% | 57,932 | 38.76% | 149,446 |
| Henry | 11,150 | 63.71% | 6,320 | 36.11% | 30 | 0.17% | −4,830 | −27.60% | 17,500 |
| Highland | 831 | 69.60% | 362 | 30.32% | 1 | 0.08% | −469 | −39.28% | 1,194 |
| Hopewell | 2,610 | 39.10% | 4,052 | 60.70% | 13 | 0.19% | 1,442 | 21.60% | 6,675 |
| Isle of Wight | 10,931 | 56.95% | 8,227 | 42.86% | 37 | 0.19% | −2,704 | −14.09% | 19,195 |
| James City | 19,029 | 44.57% | 23,603 | 55.28% | 63 | 0.15% | 4,574 | 10.71% | 42,695 |
| King and Queen | 1,985 | 60.50% | 1,292 | 39.38% | 4 | 0.12% | −693 | −21.12% | 3,281 |
| King George | 6,909 | 59.33% | 4,716 | 40.50% | 20 | 0.17% | −2,193 | −18.83% | 11,645 |
| King William | 6,033 | 66.56% | 3,020 | 33.32% | 11 | 0.12% | −3,013 | −33.24% | 9,064 |
| Lancaster | 3,283 | 54.44% | 2,734 | 45.34% | 13 | 0.22% | −549 | −9.10% | 6,030 |
| Lee | 5,439 | 84.13% | 1,019 | 15.76% | 7 | 0.11% | −4,420 | −68.37% | 6,465 |
| Lexington | 686 | 31.66% | 1,475 | 68.07% | 6 | 0.28% | 789 | 36.41% | 2,167 |
| Loudoun | 59,278 | 35.22% | 108,594 | 64.52% | 444 | 0.26% | 49,316 | 29.30% | 168,316 |
| Louisa | 11,279 | 59.52% | 7,628 | 40.25% | 44 | 0.23% | −3,651 | −19.27% | 18,951 |
| Lunenburg | 2,682 | 59.61% | 1,806 | 40.14% | 11 | 0.24% | −876 | −19.47% | 4,499 |
| Lynchburg | 13,508 | 50.41% | 13,231 | 49.38% | 56 | 0.21% | −277 | −1.03% | 26,795 |
| Madison | 4,259 | 64.01% | 2,386 | 35.86% | 9 | 0.14% | −1,873 | −28.15% | 6,654 |
| Manassas | 4,036 | 34.42% | 7,671 | 65.42% | 18 | 0.15% | 3,635 | 31.00% | 11,725 |
| Manassas Park | 1,151 | 28.72% | 2,852 | 71.16% | 5 | 0.12% | 1,701 | 42.44% | 4,008 |
| Martinsville | 1,451 | 36.35% | 2,534 | 63.48% | 7 | 0.18% | 1,083 | 27.13% | 3,992 |
| Mathews | 3,242 | 67.51% | 1,555 | 32.38% | 5 | 0.10% | −1,687 | −35.13% | 4,802 |
| Mecklenburg | 7,151 | 60.50% | 4,657 | 39.40% | 11 | 0.09% | −2,494 | −21.10% | 11,819 |
| Middlesex | 3,473 | 61.44% | 2,174 | 38.46% | 6 | 0.11% | −1,299 | −22.98% | 5,653 |
| Montgomery | 15,228 | 41.46% | 21,428 | 58.34% | 76 | 0.21% | 6,200 | 16.88% | 36,732 |
| Nelson | 3,828 | 49.55% | 3,880 | 50.23% | 17 | 0.22% | 52 | 0.67% | 7,725 |
| New Kent | 8,804 | 63.28% | 5,087 | 36.56% | 22 | 0.16% | −3,717 | −26.72% | 13,913 |
| Newport News | 17,461 | 30.91% | 38,936 | 68.93% | 92 | 0.16% | 21,475 | 38.02% | 56,489 |
| Norfolk | 15,509 | 24.15% | 48,599 | 75.68% | 111 | 0.17% | 33,090 | 51.53% | 64,219 |
| Northampton | 2,469 | 44.59% | 3,060 | 55.26% | 8 | 0.14% | 591 | 10.67% | 5,537 |
| Northumberland | 4,132 | 60.47% | 2,685 | 39.29% | 16 | 0.23% | −1,447 | −21.18% | 6,833 |
| Norton | 721 | 68.34% | 332 | 31.47% | 2 | 0.19% | −389 | −36.87% | 1,055 |
| Nottoway | 3,122 | 57.91% | 2,258 | 41.88% | 11 | 0.20% | −864 | −16.03% | 5,391 |
| Orange | 9,938 | 57.34% | 7,361 | 42.47% | 33 | 0.19% | −2,577 | −14.87% | 17,332 |
| Page | 6,940 | 74.39% | 2,365 | 25.35% | 24 | 0.26% | −4,575 | −49.04% | 9,329 |
| Patrick | 5,119 | 77.42% | 1,488 | 22.50% | 5 | 0.08% | −3,631 | −54.92% | 6,612 |
| Petersburg | 1,124 | 11.29% | 8,811 | 88.46% | 25 | 0.25% | 7,687 | 77.18% | 9,960 |
| Pittsylvania | 17,439 | 70.46% | 7,272 | 29.38% | 38 | 0.15% | −10,167 | −41.08% | 24,749 |
| Poquoson | 4,384 | 70.01% | 1,862 | 29.73% | 16 | 0.26% | −2,522 | −40.27% | 6,262 |
| Portsmouth | 8,351 | 26.55% | 23,040 | 73.25% | 62 | 0.20% | 14,689 | 46.70% | 31,453 |
| Powhatan | 11,862 | 69.57% | 5,168 | 30.31% | 21 | 0.12% | −6,694 | −39.26% | 17,051 |
| Prince Edward | 3,668 | 49.20% | 3,767 | 50.53% | 20 | 0.27% | 99 | 1.33% | 7,455 |
| Prince George | 7,986 | 58.27% | 5,707 | 41.64% | 13 | 0.09% | −2,279 | −16.63% | 13,706 |
| Prince William | 54,309 | 32.74% | 111,198 | 67.03% | 381 | 0.23% | 56,889 | 34.29% | 165,888 |
| Pulaski | 8,607 | 68.55% | 3,927 | 31.28% | 22 | 0.18% | −4,680 | −37.27% | 12,556 |
| Radford | 2,050 | 43.68% | 2,632 | 56.08% | 11 | 0.23% | 582 | 12.40% | 4,693 |
| Rappahannock | 2,231 | 55.10% | 1,812 | 44.75% | 6 | 0.15% | −419 | −10.35% | 4,049 |
| Richmond City | 11,883 | 13.04% | 79,019 | 86.73% | 212 | 0.23% | 67,136 | 73.68% | 91,114 |
| Richmond County | 1,997 | 63.88% | 1,124 | 35.96% | 5 | 0.16% | −873 | −27.93% | 3,126 |
| Roanoke City | 10,153 | 32.82% | 20,700 | 66.91% | 83 | 0.27% | 10,547 | 34.09% | 30,936 |
| Roanoke County | 24,728 | 57.66% | 18,062 | 42.12% | 97 | 0.23% | −6,666 | −15.54% | 42,887 |
| Rockbridge | 6,599 | 64.93% | 3,557 | 35.00% | 7 | 0.07% | −3,042 | −29.93% | 10,163 |
| Rockingham | 24,498 | 67.68% | 11,622 | 32.11% | 76 | 0.21% | −12,876 | −35.57% | 36,196 |
| Russell | 7,268 | 81.13% | 1,673 | 18.68% | 17 | 0.19% | −5,595 | −62.46% | 8,958 |
| Salem | 5,282 | 55.81% | 4,150 | 43.85% | 32 | 0.34% | −1,132 | −11.96% | 9,464 |
| Scott | 6,103 | 83.00% | 1,235 | 16.80% | 15 | 0.20% | −4,868 | −66.20% | 7,353 |
| Shenandoah | 12,488 | 68.53% | 5,698 | 31.27% | 37 | 0.20% | −6,790 | −37.26% | 18,223 |
| Smyth | 7,712 | 76.90% | 2,298 | 22.92% | 18 | 0.18% | −5,414 | −53.99% | 10,028 |
| Southampton | 4,492 | 60.34% | 2,945 | 39.56% | 8 | 0.11% | −1,547 | −20.78% | 7,445 |
| Spotsylvania | 29,015 | 48.47% | 30,748 | 51.36% | 104 | 0.17% | 1,733 | 2.89% | 59,867 |
| Stafford | 27,774 | 43.94% | 35,327 | 55.88% | 115 | 0.18% | 7,553 | 11.95% | 63,216 |
| Staunton | 4,236 | 39.10% | 6,580 | 60.73% | 18 | 0.17% | 2,344 | 21.64% | 10,834 |
| Suffolk | 15,935 | 38.20% | 25,696 | 61.60% | 80 | 0.19% | 9,761 | 23.40% | 41,711 |
| Surry | 1,707 | 47.63% | 1,873 | 52.26% | 4 | 0.11% | 166 | 4.63% | 3,584 |
| Sussex | 1,802 | 46.91% | 2,035 | 52.98% | 4 | 0.10% | 233 | 6.07% | 3,841 |
| Tazewell | 10,407 | 82.10% | 2,248 | 17.73% | 21 | 0.17% | −8,159 | −64.37% | 12,676 |
| Virginia Beach | 75,013 | 44.22% | 94,339 | 55.62% | 269 | 0.16% | 19,326 | 11.39% | 169,621 |
| Warren | 10,433 | 64.29% | 5,757 | 35.47% | 39 | 0.24% | −4,676 | −28.81% | 16,229 |
| Washington | 15,614 | 74.21% | 5,382 | 25.58% | 43 | 0.20% | −10,232 | −48.63% | 21,039 |
| Waynesboro | 4,037 | 47.46% | 4,459 | 52.42% | 11 | 0.13% | 422 | 4.96% | 8,507 |
| Westmoreland | 4,396 | 54.02% | 3,733 | 45.88% | 8 | 0.10% | −663 | −8.15% | 8,137 |
| Williamsburg | 1,647 | 24.51% | 5,063 | 75.35% | 9 | 0.13% | 3,416 | 50.84% | 6,719 |
| Winchester | 3,485 | 39.52% | 5,318 | 60.30% | 16 | 0.18% | 1,833 | 20.78% | 8,819 |
| Wise | 8,744 | 79.15% | 2,281 | 20.65% | 22 | 0.20% | −6,463 | −58.50% | 11,047 |
| Wythe | 8,426 | 76.29% | 2,594 | 23.49% | 24 | 0.22% | −5,832 | −52.81% | 11,044 |
| York | 15,684 | 49.79% | 15,769 | 50.06% | 47 | 0.15% | 85 | 0.27% | 31,500 |
| Totals | 1,449,586 | 42.22% | 1,976,857 | 57.58% | 6,897 | 0.20% | 527,271 | 15.36% | 3,433,340 |
Counties and independent cities that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Caroline (largest municipality: Bowling Green)
- Chesapeake (independent city)
- Chesterfield (largest municipality: Chester)
- Hopewell (independent city)
- James City (largest municipality: Williamsburg)
- Montgomery (largest municipality: Blacksburg)
- Nelson (largest municipality: Nellysford)
- Northampton (largest municipality: Exmore)
- Prince Edward (largest municipality: Farmville)
- Radford (independent city)
- Spotsylvania (largest municipality: Spotsylvania Courthouse)
- Stafford (largest municipality: Aquia Harbour)
- Surry (largest municipality: Claremont)
- Virginia Beach (independent city)
- Waynesboro (independent city)
- York (largest municipality: Grafton)
By congressional district
Spanberger won eight of 11 congressional districts, including two held by Republicans.[203]
| District | Earle-Sears | Spanberger | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 48.6% | 51.2% | Rob Wittman |
| 2nd | 46.1% | 53.7% | Jen Kiggans |
| 3rd | 27.9% | 71.9% | Bobby Scott |
| 4th | 29.2% | 70.6% | Jennifer McClellan |
| 5th | 53.5% | 46.3% | John McGuire |
| 6th | 58.2% | 41.6% | Ben Cline |
| 7th | 42.2% | 57.6% | Eugene Vindman |
| 8th | 19.6% | 80.1% | Don Beyer |
| 9th | 68.1% | 31.7% | Morgan Griffith |
| 10th | 39.6% | 60.1% | Suhas Subramanyam |
| 11th | 26.2% | 73.5% | James Walkinshaw |
Aftermath and analysis
Spanberger set a record for most votes received by a gubernatorial candidate in Virginia's history. Spanberger's sizable victory was attributed to concerns over affordability, Earle-Sears' tendency to change staff and failure to find a convincing message, Spanberger's fundraising advantage, a significant decline in turnout in heavily Republican Southwest Virginia, and outrage in Northern Virginia over the mass layoffs of federal workers as part of President Donald Trump's efforts to downsize the federal government.[204] Additionally, many furloughed federal workers were energized by the ongoing federal government shutdown. Discontentment with the U.S. economy under Trump, which many Virginians blamed on his tariff policies, also played a factor in motivating Spanberger voters.[205] The layoffs boosted Spanberger in Northern Virginia which contributed to her large victory margin.[206]
Northern Virginia backed 88% of her statewide margin, where every locality in the region saw her margin increase significantly from McAuliffe's performance in 2021. She could've won statewide without Northern Virginia by three points.[207]
Spanberger did well with college-educated voters, winning voters with college degrees by 27 points (63%-36%). Many college campuses shifted leftward by 18 points on average due to young voters. Virginia Tech shifted 34 points to the left, which was the largest shift of all the college campuses. Spanberger’s strongest independent city was Charlottesville, where the University of Virginia is — her alma mater. The evangelical Liberty University in Lynchburg shifted to the left by six points.[208] College-educated voters made up more of the electorate compared to 2021. Spanberger narrowly won non-college-educated voters (50%-49%) despite Youngkin's 19-point margin (59%-40%) with non-college-educated voters from 2021.[209]
This is the first time since 1985 that a Democrat carried Spotsylvania County, a notable Republican stronghold, as well as Waynesboro City. Stafford County also flipped for the first time since 1985, though Harris won Stafford in 2024. Nelson County and Caroline County also voted Democratic for the first time since 2013. James City County voted Democratic for the first time since 2005, although it voted Democratic in 2020 and 2024.[210] Spanberger's closest victory was in York County, which voted Democratic for the first time since 1965.[211] Spanberger improved with Latino voters from 2024.[212]
Exit poll
| Demographic subgroup | Spanberger | Earle-Sears | % of total vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ideology | |||
| Liberals | 96 | 4 | 33 |
| Moderates | 69 | 31 | 33 |
| Conservatives | 10 | 90 | 35 |
| Party | |||
| Democrats | 99 | 1 | 36 |
| Republicans | 7 | 93 | 31 |
| Independents | 59 | 40 | 33 |
| Donald Trump job approval | |||
| Approve | 6 | 94 | 39 |
| Disapprove | 92 | 7 | 59 |
| Most important issue facing Virginia | |||
| Economy | 63 | 36 | 48 |
| Health care | 81 | 18 | 21 |
| Education | 55 | 45 | 11 |
| Immigration | 11 | 89 | 11 |
| 2024 presidential vote | |||
| Kamala Harris | 99 | 1 | 51 |
| Donald Trump | 7 | 93 | 42 |
| Another candidate | 61 | 36 | 2 |
| Did not vote | 61 | 39 | 3 |
| Gender | |||
| Men | 48 | 51 | 47 |
| Women | 65 | 35 | 53 |
| Income | |||
| $200,000 or more | 64 | 36 | 14 |
| $100,000-$199,999 | 51 | 48 | 28 |
| $50,000-$99,999 | 58 | 42 | 31 |
| Less than $50,000 | 63 | 37 | 26 |
| Race/ethnicity | |||
| White | 47 | 53 | 71 |
| Asian | 80 | 20 | 4 |
| Latino | 67 | 33 | 5 |
| Black | 93 | 7 | 16 |
| White born-again or evangelical Christian? | |||
| Yes | 20 | 80 | 28 |
| No | 71 | 29 | 72 |
| Race by gender | |||
| White men | 38 | 61 | 34 |
| White women | 54 | 46 | 36 |
| Black men | 89 | 11 | 7 |
| Black women | 96 | 3 | 9 |
| Latino men | 53 | 47 | 2 |
| Latina women | 78 | 22 | 2 |
| All other voters | 73 | 27 | 9 |
| Age | |||
| 18–29 years old | 70 | 29 | 13 |
| 30–44 years old | 62 | 38 | 20 |
| 45-64 years old | 55 | 45 | 35 |
| 65 and older | 51 | 49 | 32 |
| Area type | |||
| Urban | 66 | 34 | 19 |
| Suburban | 59 | 41 | 57 |
| Rural | 46 | 54 | 24 |
| Education | |||
| College graduate | 63 | 36 | 52 |
| No college degree | 50 | 49 | 48 |
| Education by race | |||
| White college graduates | 57 | 43 | 38 |
| Non-white college graduates | 80 | 19 | 14 |
| Whites without college | 34 | 66 | 33 |
| Non-whites without college | 85 | 15 | 15 |
| Education by gender and race | |||
| White women with college degrees | 65 | 35 | 20 |
| White women without college degrees | 39 | 60 | 16 |
| White men with college degrees | 48 | 52 | 18 |
| White men without college degrees | 29 | 71 | 17 |
| Voters of color | 83 | 17 | 30 |
| Educational attainment | |||
| Advanced degree | 68 | 32 | 23 |
| Bachelor's degree | 60 | 40 | 29 |
| Associate's degree | 53 | 47 | 10 |
| Some college | 55 | 45 | 17 |
| Never attended college | 46 | 54 | 21 |
See also
Notes
- From May 21 to September 10, 2025, Virginia's 11th congressional district was vacant after the death of Democratic Representative Gerry Connolly. This temporarily created a split 5-5 U.S. House delegation in the state. Democrats' 6-5 majority was restored when Democrat James Walkinshaw won the September 9 special election.
- Commonly referred to as DOGE.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Held office as a Republican
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Donna Charles with 5%
- Donna Charles with 1%
- "Would not vote" with 0%
- Donna Charles with 4%
- "Refused" with 2%; "Some other candidate" with 1%
- "Refused" with 1%; Donna Charles with 0%
- "Neither" and "Would not vote" with 1%
- "Neither" with 3%; "Would not vote" with 2%
- Donna Charles with 2%
- "None of these" with 1%
- "Neither" and "Would not vote" with 2%
- "Other" with 1%
- "Wouldn't vote" with 1%; "Someone else" with 1%
- Donna Charles with 3%
- "Some other candidate" with 1%
- Donna Charles with 8%
- "Some other candidate" with 3%
- Denver Riggleman with 7%
- "Someone else" with 4%
- "Someone else" with 5%
- "Wouldn't vote" with 4%; "Someone else" with 1%
- "Someone else" with 2%. "Don't know/Refused" with 4%
- "None / Would not vote" with 5%; "Other candidate" with 4%; "Refused" with 1%
Partisan clients
- Poll sponsored by Stoney's campaign
- Poll sponsored by Red Eagle Politics, a conservative content creator
- Poll commissioned by the Democratic Attorneys General Association
- Poll commissioned by the Democratic Governors Association, which supports Spanberger
- Poll sponsored by John Reid's campaign for LT Gov
- Poll sponsored by the Virginia Project
- Poll sponsored by Founders Insight
- Poll sponsored by Virginia FREE
- Poll sponsored by the Northern Virginia Republican Business Forum
- Poll sponsored by the University of Mary Washington