2022 Alaska gubernatorial election
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The 2022 Alaska gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Alaska. Incumbent Republican governor Mike Dunleavy won re-election to a second term, becoming the first Republican governor to be re-elected to a second term since Jay Hammond in 1978 and the first governor, regardless of political affiliation, to be re-elected to a second term since Tony Knowles in 1998.[1]
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November 8, 2022
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| Turnout | 44.40%  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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  Dunleavy: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Gara: 40–50% Walker: 30–40% 40–50% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Following voter approval of Ballot Measure 2 during the 2020 Alaska elections, this was the first gubernatorial election in Alaska held under a new election process. All candidates ran in a nonpartisan blanket top-four primary on August 16, 2022,[2] and the top four candidates advanced to the general election.[3]
In addition to Dunleavy, Democratic former state representative Les Gara, independent former governor Bill Walker, and Republican Kenai Peninsula Borough mayor Charlie Pierce advanced to the general election.[4] In the general election, Dunleavy narrowly received the majority of votes in the first round, preventing an instant runoff.
Primary election
Republican Party
Advanced to general
- Mike Dunleavy, incumbent governor[5]
- Running mate: Nancy Dahlstrom, former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Corrections and former state representative[6]
- Previous running mate: Kevin Meyer, incumbent lieutenant governor[5] (withdrew December 28, 2021)[7]
- Charlie Pierce, mayor of the Kenai Peninsula Borough[8]
Eliminated in primary
- David Haeg, hunting guide[11]
- Waynette Coleman, nurse[11]
- Christopher Kurka, state representative[12]
- Bruce Walden, veteran and author[15]
- Running mate: Tanya Lange, social service worker[15]
Declined
Democratic Party
Advanced to general
- Les Gara, former state representative[17]
- Running mate: Jessica Cook, teacher[15]
Declined
- Mike Navarre, former mayor of the Kenai Peninsula Borough and former state representative (endorsed Walker)[18]
Libertarian Party
Eliminated in primary
Alaskan Independence Party
Eliminated in primary
- John Howe, machinist and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2020[11]
- Running mate: Shellie Wyatt[11]
Independents
Advanced to general
- Bill Walker, former governor[19]
- Running mate: Heidi Drygas, former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development[19]
Eliminated in primary
- William Nemec, former Denali Borough Assembly member[11]
- Running mate: Ronnie Ostrem[11]
Declined
- Alyse Galvin, public education advocate and candidate for Alaska's at-large congressional district in 2018 and 2020[20] (running for state house)[21]
- Al Gross, orthopedic surgeon, commercial fisherman, son of former Alaska Attorney General Avrum Gross, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020[20][18] (ran for U.S. House)
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Mike Dunleavy (R) |
Les Gara (D) |
Charlie Pierce (R) |
Bill Walker (I) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research[22] | July 20–25, 2022 | 1,253 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 22% | 5% | 23% | 9%[c] | – |
| Lake Research Partners (D)[23][A] | May 5–11, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 40% | 24% | 5% | 18% | 3% | 10% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican |
|
76,534 | 40.43 | |
| Democratic |
|
43,660 | 23.06 | |
| Independent |
|
43,111 | 22.77 | |
| Republican |
|
12,458 | 6.58 | |
| Republican |
|
7,307 | 3.86 | |
| Independence |
|
1,702 | 0.90 | |
| Republican |
|
1,661 | 0.88 | |
| Libertarian |
|
1,381 | 0.73 | |
| Republican |
|
1,139 | 0.60 | |
| Independent |
|
347 | 0.18 | |
| Total votes | 188,626 | 100.00 | ||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[25] | Likely R | July 26, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[26] | Likely R | July 22, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[27] | Likely R | June 29, 2022 |
| Politico[28] | Likely R | April 1, 2022 |
| RCP[29] | Likely R | January 10, 2022 |
| Fox News[30] | Likely R | May 12, 2022 |
| 538[31] | Likely R | August 25, 2022 |
| Elections Daily[32] | Likely R | November 7, 2022 |
Debates
| No. | Date | Host | Link | Participants | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | |||||||
| Mike Dunleavy | Bill Walker | Les Gara | Charlie Pierce | ||||
| 1 | October 11, 2022 | Civic and Convention Center | [33] | P | P | P | P |
Endorsements
Mike Dunleavy (R)
U.S. executive branch officials
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)[34]
U.S. senators
- Dan Sullivan, U.S. senator from Alaska (2015–present)[18]
Statewide officials
- Sarah Palin, 9th governor of Alaska (2006–2009), candidate for Alaska's at-large congressional district in 2022 and Republican nominee for vice president in 2008[35]
- Kelly Tshibaka, former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Administration (2019–2021) and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2022[35]
State legislators
- Jay Ramras, former state representative (2005–2011)[18]
Local officials
- Dave Bronson, mayor of Anchorage (2021–2024)[18]
- Dan Sullivan, former mayor of Anchorage (2009–2015)[18]
Organizations
- Alaska Republican Party (co-endorsed with Pierce)[36]
- NRA Political Victory Fund[37][38]
Les Gara (D)
Statewide officials
- Jane Angvik, former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Development and former Anchorage Assembly member (1979–1985)[39]
- Tony Knowles, former governor of Alaska (1994–2002)[18]
State legislators
- Vic Fischer, former state senator and drafter of the Alaska Constitution[18]
Organizations
Christopher Kurka (R)
Individuals
- Joe Miller, former U.S. magistrate judge (2002–2004) and former candidate for U.S. Senate in 2010 and 2016[12]
Charlie Pierce (R)
State legislators
- Lora Reinbold, state senator (2019–present) and state representative (2013–2019)[41]
Organizations
- Alaska Republican Party (co-endorsed with Dunleavy)[36]
Bill Walker (I)
State legislators
- Cathy Giessel, former president of the Alaska Senate (Republican)[18]
- Grier Hopkins, state representative (Democratic)[42]
- Andy Josephson, state representative (2017–present) (Democratic)[18]
- Beth Kerttula, former state representative (1999–2014) (Democratic)[18]
- Ivy Spohnholz, state representative (Democratic)[42]
- Adam Wool, state representative (Democratic)[42]
Local officials
- Bruce Botelho, former mayor of Juneau (2003–2012) and former Alaska Attorney General (1988–1991) (Democratic)[43]
- Santa Claus, mayor pro tem of North Pole and candidate for Alaska's at-large congressional district in the 2022 special election (Independent)[44]
- Mike Navarre, former mayor of the Kenai Peninsula Borough (1996–1999, 2011–2017) and former state representative (1985–1996) (Democratic)[18]
Individuals
Labor unions
- Alaska AFL–CIO[45]
- American Federation of Teachers - Alaska[46]
- National Education Association - Alaska[46]
Organizations
Declined to endorse
State legislators
- Rick Halford, former president of the Alaska Senate (Republican)[18]
Individuals
- Al Gross, orthopedic surgeon, commercial fisherman, son of former Alaska Attorney General Avrum Gross, Democratic-endorsed nominee for U.S. Senate in 2020, and withdrawn candidate for Alaska's at-large congressional district in the 2022 special and regular elections (Independent)[20][18]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
RCV count |
Mike Dunleavy (R) |
Les Gara (D) |
Charlie Pierce (R) |
Bill Walker (I) |
Undecided / Not Ranked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dittman Research[47] | October 21–25, 2022 | 403 (LV) | – | 1 | 47% | 25% | 4% | 23% | — |
| 2 | 51% | 25% | Elim | 24% | — | ||||
| Alaska Survey Research[48] | September 25–27, 2022 | 1,282 (LV) | ± 3.0% | ||||||
| 1 | 43% | 28% | 7% | 21% | — | ||||
| 2 | 48% | 28% | Elim | 23% | — | ||||
| 3 | 53% | 47% | Elim | Elim | — | ||||
| 3*[d] | 52% | Elim | Elim | 48% | — | ||||
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[49][B] | September 6–11, 2022 | 1,050 (LV) | [e] | N/A[f] | 45% | 24% | 6% | 17% | 8% U |
| 1 | 49% | 26% | 7% | 19% | 8% NR | ||||
| 2 | 54% | 26% | Elim[g] | 20% | 10% NR | ||||
| 3 | 59% | 41% | Elim | Elim[h] | 13% NR | ||||
| Alaska Survey Research[50] | July 2–5, 2022 | 1,201 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 1 | 44% | 26% | 11% | 20% | — |
| 2 | 51% | 26% | Elim | 23% | — |
Hypothetical polling
Mike Dunleavy vs. Les Gara
Mike Dunleavy vs. Bill Walker
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican |
|
132,632 | 50.29% | −1.15% | |
| Democratic |
|
63,851 | 24.21% | −20.20% | |
| Independent |
|
54,668 | 20.73% | +18.70% | |
| Republican |
|
11,817 | 4.48% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 784 | 0.30% | +0.09% | ||
| Total votes | 263,752 | 100.0% | |||
| Turnout | 266,943 | 44.40% | −5.43% | ||
| Registered electors | 601,161 | ||||
| Republican hold | |||||
Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Anchorage
- Kodiak Island (largest city: Kodiak Island)
- Bristol Bay Borough (largest city: Naknek)
- Lake & Peninsula Borough (largest city: Newhalen)
- Aleutians West Census Area (largest city: Unalaska)
- Aleutians East Borough (largest city: Akutan)
- Bethel Census Area (largest city: Bethel)
- Dilingham Census Area (largest city: Dilingham)
- North Slope Borough (largest city: Utqiaġvik)
- Northwest Arctic Borough (largest city: Kotzebue)
- Kusilvak Census Area (largest city: Hooper Bay)
- Nome Census Area (largest city: Nome)
- Yukon–Koyukuk Census Area (largest city: Fort Yukon)
- Prince of Wales–Hyder Census Area (largest city: Craig)
- Petersburg
Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Democratic to Independent
- Juneau
- Sitka
- Hoonah–Angoon Census Area (largest town: Hoonah)
- Haines Borough (largest census-designated place: Haines)
- Yakutat
See also
Notes
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Howe and Kurka with 3%; Toien with 2%; Haeg with 1%; Nemec and Walden with 0%
- Hypothetical scenario with Dunleavy and Walker as the top two based on expressed ranked choice preferences
- The margin of sampling error for the 500 statewide sample is ±4.4%; for the 840 total sample of voters 50+ is ±3.3%.
- Standard polling question.
- Pierce eliminated. Vote transfer breakdown: 70% to Dunleavy, 7% to Walker, 3% to Gara, and 20% not ranked further.
- Walker eliminated. Vote transfer breakdown: 67% to Gara, 13% to Dunleavy, and 20% not ranked further.
Partisan clients