2022 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska
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The November 2022 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska was held on Tuesday, November 8, to elect a member of the United States House of Representatives to represent the state of Alaska. Democratic incumbent Mary Peltola won re-election to a full term in office, defeating Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III and Libertarian Chris Bye in the runoff count.[1]
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November 8, 2022
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Peltola: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Palin: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||||||
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This was the second race in Alaska held under the 2020 Measure 2 election procedure. Earlier that year, a special election was held to complete the term of Don Young, who died in office in March 2022, which Peltola won.[2]
In the race for the full term in the congressional seat, all candidates first ran in a nonpartisan blanket top-four primary. Each voter cast a single vote to choose who would advance to the runoff. Mary Peltola, Sarah Palin, Nick Begich III, and Chris Bye[note 1] advanced to the runoff.[3][4]
Under the rules of instant-runoff, Bye and Begich were eliminated in the first and second rounds, after they received the fewest votes. These votes were then transferred to either Peltola or Palin, depending on who the voter ranked higher on their ballot. Peltola won with 55% of the vote, increasing her margin from the special election.[5]
Peltola's final-round vote share of 55% was the best performance for a statewide Democratic candidate in Alaska since the 1974 Senate race, and the best performance for any statewide candidate in Alaska since the 2012 House race. Peltola was one of only five House Democrats in the 2022 midterm elections who won (or flipped) a district that Donald Trump had carried in the 2020 presidential election.[a] She outran Joe Biden's vote margin by 20 points, the best overperformance of any House Democrat in the midterms.
Peltola won the election in the final round, with a majority of voters ranking her over Palin. Peltola was defeated for re-election by Begich in a rematch in 2024.
Primary election
Democratic Party
Advanced to general
- Mary Peltola, incumbent U.S. representative and former state representative[6][7]
Withdrew
- Christopher Constant, Anchorage Assembly member (endorsed Peltola)[8]
- Mike Milligan, former Kodiak Island Borough Assembly member, Green nominee for this district in 1992 and for lieutenant governor in 1998 (endorsed Peltola)[8]
- Adam Wool, state representative[6][8][9]
Declined
- Les Gara, former state representative (running for governor)[10]
- Elvi Gray-Jackson, state senator[11]
- Emil Notti, engineer, former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Commerce, Community and Economic Development, former chair of the Alaska Democratic Party, nominee for this district in 1973, and candidate for this district in the 2022 special election[6][12][13]
Republican Party
Advanced to general
- Nick Begich III, Alaska Policy Forum board member, grandson of former U.S. Representative Nick Begich Sr., and nephew of former U.S. senator Mark Begich and Alaska Senate Minority Leader Tom Begich[6][14]
- Sarah Palin, former governor of Alaska (2006–2009) and nominee for Vice President of the United States in 2008[6][15]
Withdrew after advancing to general
Eliminated in primary
Withdrawn
- John Coghill, former majority leader of the Alaska Senate, former majority leader of the Alaska House of Representatives, son of former lieutenant governor Jack Coghill, and U.S. Air Force veteran (endorsed Begich)[6][19][20]
- Mikel Melander[6][18]
- Josh Revak, state senator and U.S. Army veteran[6][21][9][22]
- Jesse Sumner, Matanuska-Susitna Borough Assembly member[6][23]
Declined
- Mead Treadwell, former lieutenant governor of Alaska (endorsed Palin and Sweeney)[24]
Libertarian Party
Advanced to general
Eliminated in primary
- J. R. Myers, founder of the Alaska Constitution Party and its nominee for governor in 2014[6]
Alaskan Independence Party
Declined
- John Howe, machinist and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2020 (ran for governor)[6]
American Independent Party
Eliminated in primary
- Robert Ornelas, pastor and perennial candidate[6]
Independents
Eliminated in primary
Withdrawn
- Al Gross, orthopedic surgeon, commercial fisherman, son of former Alaska attorney general Avrum Gross, and Democratic-endorsed nominee for U.S. Senate in 2020[6][27][28] (endorsed Peltola and Sweeney)[29]
- William Hibler III, former glaciologist with the University of Alaska Fairbanks and Democratic candidate for this district in 2016 and 2020[6][18]
- Jeff Lowenfels, attorney and gardening writer[6][11][18]
Declined
- Santa Claus, North Pole city councillor and candidate for this district in the 2022 special election[6][9][13] (endorsed Peltola)[30]
- Andrew Halcro, former Republican state representative, candidate for Governor of Alaska in 2006, and candidate for this district in the 2022 special election[6][11][9][13]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Mary Peltola | 70,295 | 36.80 | |
| Republican | Sarah Palin | 57,693 | 30.20 | |
| Republican | Nick Begich III | 50,021 | 26.19 | |
| Republican | Tara Sweeney (withdrew) | 7,195 | 3.77 | |
| Libertarian | Chris Bye[b] | 1,189 | 0.62 | |
| Libertarian | J. R. Myers | 531 | 0.28 | |
| Republican | Bob Lyons | 447 | 0.23 | |
| Republican | Jay Armstrong | 403 | 0.21 | |
| Republican | Brad Snowden | 355 | 0.19 | |
| Republican | Randy Purham | 311 | 0.16 | |
| Independent | Lady Donna Dutchess | 270 | 0.14 | |
| Independent | Sherry Strizak | 252 | 0.13 | |
| American Independent | Robert Ornelas | 248 | 0.13 | |
| Republican | Denise Williams | 242 | 0.13 | |
| Independent | Gregg Brelsford | 241 | 0.13 | |
| Independent | David Hughes | 238 | 0.12 | |
| Independent | Andrew Phelps | 222 | 0.12 | |
| Independent | Tremayne Wilson | 194 | 0.10 | |
| Independent | Sherry Mettler | 191 | 0.10 | |
| Independent | Silvio Pellegrini | 187 | 0.10 | |
| Independent | Ted Heintz | 173 | 0.09 | |
| Independent | Davis LeBlanc | 117 | 0.06 | |
| Total votes | 191,015 | 100.00 | ||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[32] | Lean D | November 1, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[33] | Lean D | November 3, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[34] | Lean D | November 2, 2022 |
| Politico[35] | Lean D | October 26, 2022 |
| RCP[36] | Tossup | November 3, 2022 |
| Fox News[37] | Lean D | November 1, 2022 |
| DDHQ[38] | Lean D | November 8, 2022 |
| FiveThirtyEight[39] | Tossup | November 3, 2022 |
| The Economist[40] | Lean D | November 2, 2022 |
Debates and forums
As of September 2022, there had been one debate featuring the general election candidates.
A little over an hour before results came in for the final round of the 2022 congressional special election, a debate was held for candidates for the full term in the House seat. All four candidates were included in the debate.
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Participants | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | ||||||||
| Nick Begich III | Chris Bye | Sarah Palin | Mary Peltola | |||||
| 1 | August 31, 2022 | Alaska Oil and Gas Association | Dave Karp | [41] | P | P | P | P |
| 2 | October 4, 2022 | Kodiak Chamber of Commerce/KMXT (FM) | Dan Rohr | [42] | P | P | P | P |
| 3 | October 10, 2022 | Anchorage Chamber of Commerce | Julie Hasquet | [43] | P | P | A | P |
| 4 | October 21, 2022 | Alaska Federation of Natives | P | P | P | P | ||
| 5 | October 26, 2022 | Alaska Public Media/Alaska's News Source | Lori Townsend, Mike Ross | [44] | P | P | P | P |
Endorsements
Nick Begich III (R)
State legislators
- Ben Carpenter, state representative from the 29th district (2019–2025)[45]
- John Coghill, former Majority Leader of the Alaska Senate (2013–2016) from District B (2009–2021) and former Majority Leader of the Alaska House of Representatives (2003–2006) from the 11th district (1999–2009)[20]
- Mike Cronk, state representative from the 6th district (2021–2025)[45]
- Lynn Gattis, former state representative from the 9th district (2013–2017)[45]
- Roger Holland, state senator from District N (2021–2023)[45]
- Shelley Hughes, Majority Leader of the Alaska Senate (2021–2023) from District F (2017–2025), and former state representative from the 11th district (2012–2017)[45]
- Kevin J. McCabe, state representative from the 8th district (2021–present)[45]
- Ken McCarty, state representative from the 13th district (2021–2023)[45]
- Thomas McKay, state representative from the 24th district (2021–2025)[45]
- Charisse Millett, former Minority Leader of the Alaska House of Representatives (2017–2019) from the 30th district (2009–2019)[45]
- Mike Shower, state senator from District E (2018–2025)[45]
- Sarah Vance, state representative from the 31st district (2019–present)[45]
Local officials
- Dave Bronson, Mayor of Anchorage (2021–2024)[46]
- Dan Sullivan, former Mayor of Anchorage (2009–2015)[47]
Individuals
- Jim Palin, former father-in-law of Sarah Palin[48]
Organizations
- Alaska Outdoor Council[49][45]
- Alaska Republican Party[50]
- Americans for Prosperity Alaska[51]
- Anchorage Young Republicans[45]
- Associated Builders and Contractors, Alaska Chapter[45]
- FreedomWorks for America[51]
Chris Bye (L)
Organizations
Sarah Palin (R)
Executive branch officials
- Nikki Haley, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations (2017–2018) and former governor of South Carolina (2011–2017)[53]
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)[54]
U.S. representatives
- Elise Stefanik, U.S. representative from New York's 21st congressional district (2015–present)[55]
Organizations
- Campaign for Working Families[56]
- Log Cabin Republicans[57]
Al Gross (I) (withdrawn)
State officials
- Tony Knowles, former governor of Alaska (1994–2002) and former mayor of Anchorage (1982–1987)[45]
- Fran Ulmer, former lieutenant governor of Alaska (1994–2002), former state representative from the 3rd district (1987–1994), and former mayor of Juneau (1983–1985)[45]
State legislators
- Hollis French, former state senator from District J (2003–2015)[45]
- Beth Kerttula, former Minority Leader of the Alaska House of Representatives (2007–2014) from the 3rd district (1999–2014)[45]
- Joe Paskvan, former state senator from District E (2009–2013)[45]
Local officials
- Sally Smith, former mayor of Juneau (2000–2003) and former state representative from the 20th district (1977–1983)[45]
Organizations
Mary Peltola (D)
U.S. senators
- Lisa Murkowski, U.S. senator from Alaska (Republican)[59]
State legislators
- Rick Halford, former President of the Alaska Senate (Republican)[60]
Local officials
- Santa Claus, North Pole city councillor (2015–2018, 2019-2022) and current mayor pro tem (Independent)[30]
- Christopher Constant, Anchorage Assembly member[8]
- Mike Milligan, former Kodiak Island Borough Assembly member, Green nominee for this district in 1992 and for lieutenant governor in 1998[8]
Individuals
- Al Gross, orthopedic surgeon, commercial fisherman, son of former Alaska Attorney General Avrum Gross, and Democratic-endorsed nominee for U.S. Senate in 2020 (Independent) (co-endorsement with Sweeney)[29]
- Emil Notti, engineer, former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Commerce, former chair of the Alaska Democratic Party, and nominee for Alaska's at-large congressional district in 1973[61]
Labor unions
Organizations
Josh Revak (R) (withdrawn)
Tara Sweeney (R) (withdrawn)
Executive branch officials
- Thomas J. Barrett, former U.S. Deputy Secretary of Transportation (2007–2009) and retired U.S. Coast Guard vice admiral[68]
State officials
- Mead Treadwell, former lieutenant governor of Alaska (2010–2014)[69]
Individuals
- Al Gross, orthopedic surgeon, commercial fisherman, son of former Alaska Attorney General Avrum Gross, and Democratic-endorsed nominee for U.S. Senate in 2020 (Independent) (co-endorsement with Peltola)[29]
Organizations
- ANCSA Regional Association[70]
Declined to endorse
- State legislators
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
RCV count |
Mary Peltola (D) |
Sarah Palin (R) |
Nick Begich (R) |
Chris Bye (L) |
Undecided / Not Ranked / Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dittman Research[71] | November 2–3, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | ||||||
| 1 | 48% | 25% | 23% | 3% | 1% U 1% O | ||||
| 2 | 49% | 26% | 25% | Elim | — | ||||
| 3 | 56% | 44% | Elim | Elim | — | ||||
| Alaska Survey Research[72] | October 19–22, 2022 | 1,276 (LV) | ± 3.0% | ||||||
| 1 | 49% | 26% | 21% | 5% | — | ||||
| 2 | 51% | 27% | 22% | Elim | — | ||||
| 3 | 57% | 43% | Elim | Elim | — | ||||
| 3*[d] | 56% | Elim | 44% | Elim | — | ||||
| Dittman Research[73] | October 4–8, 2022 | 411 (LV) | ± 4.8% | ||||||
| 1 | 45% | 23% | 28% | 3% | — | ||||
| 2 | 46% | 24% | 30% | Elim | — | ||||
| 3 | 52% | Elim | 48% | Elim | — | ||||
| Alaska Survey Research[74] | September 25–27, 2022 | 1,282 (LV) | ± 3.0% | ||||||
| 1 | 49% | 23% | 26% | 2% | — | ||||
| 2 | 50% | 24% | 26% | Elim | — | ||||
| 3 | 54% | Elim | 46% | Elim | — | ||||
| 3*[e] | 56% | 44% | Elim | Elim | — | ||||
| Dittman Research[75] | September 6–14, 2022 | 394 (LV) | ± 4.9% | ||||||
| 1 | 50% | 27% | 20% | 3% | 1% U 1% O | ||||
| 2 | 51% | 28% | 21% | Elim | — | ||||
| 3 | 58% | 42% | Elim | Elim | — | ||||
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[76][A] | September 6–11, 2022 | 1,050 (LV) | [f] | N/A[g] | 45% | 30% | 20% | 2% | 3% U |
| 1 | 46% | 31% | 20% | 2% | 3% NR | ||||
| 2 | 47% | 32% | 21% | Elim[h] | 4% NR | ||||
| 3 | 53% | 47% | Elim[i] | Elim | 10% NR |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
RCV count |
Nick Begich (R) |
Sarah Palin (R) |
Mary Peltola (D) |
Tara Sweeney (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research[77] | July 20–25, 2022 | 1,253 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 1 | 26% | 27% | 39% | 8% | – |
| 2 | 29% | 29% | 42% | Elim | – | ||||
| 3 | 54% | Elim | 46% | Elim | – | ||||
| 3*[j] | Elim | 48% | 53% | Elim | – | ||||
| Alaska Survey Research[78] | July 2–5, 2022 | 1,201 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 1 | 27% | 27% | 38% | 8% | – |
| 2 | 31% | 29% | 41% | Elim | – | ||||
| 3 | 56% | Elim | 44% | Elim | – |
Results
| Party | Candidate | First choice | Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | |||
| Democratic | Mary Peltola (incumbent) | 128,553 | 48.77% | +202 | 128,755 | 48.66% | +1,031 | 129,786 | 49.22% | +7,477 | 137,263 | 54.96% | |
| Republican | Sarah Palin | 67,866 | 25.74% | +464 | 68,330 | 25.82% | +1,069 | 69,399 | 26.32% | +43,072 | 112,471 | 45.04% | |
| Republican | Nick Begich III | 61,513 | 23.33% | +992 | 62,505 | 23.62% | +1,994 | 64,499 | 24.46% | -64,499 | Eliminated | ||
| Libertarian | Chris Bye | 4,570 | 1.73% | +429 | 4,999 | 1.89% | -4,999 | Eliminated | |||||
| Write-in | 1,108 | 0.42% | -1,108 | Eliminated | |||||||||
| Total votes | 263,610 | 264,589 | 263,684 | 249,734 | |||||||||
| Blank or inactive ballots | 2,208 | +905 | 3,113 | +13,950 | 17,063 | ||||||||
| Democratic hold | |||||||||||||
See also
Notes
- The others were Marcy Kaptur, Jared Golden, Matt Cartwright, and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez.
- Chris Bye placed fifth in the nonpartisan primary. However, the fourth-place finisher — Tara Sweeney — withdrew, placing Bye in the general election.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Hypothetical scenario with Begich and Peltola as the top two based on expressed ranked choice preferences
- Hypothetical scenario with Palin and Peltola as the top two based on expressed ranked choice preferences
- The margin of sampling error for the 500 statewide sample is ±4.4%; for the 840 total sample of voters 50+ is ±3.3%.
- Standard polling question.
- Bye eliminated. Vote transfer breakdown: 33% to Begich, 25% to Palin, 17% to Peltola, and 25% not ranked further.
- Begich eliminated. Vote transfer breakdown: 56% to Palin, 14% to Peltola, 30% not ranked further.
- Hypothetical scenario with Palin and Peltola as the top two based on expressed ranked choice preferences
Partisan clients