2024 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska
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The 2024 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States House of Representatives to represent the state of Alaska from its at-large congressional district. The election coincided with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the U.S. House, elections to the United States Senate, and various other state and local elections.
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November 5, 2024
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 Begich: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Peltola: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% | ||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Mary Peltola, the first Democrat to represent Alaska in the House since 1972, sought a second full term in office. Peltola had been elected in an August 2022 special election to succeed deceased Republican Don Young. She won a full term the following November.
In accordance with 2020 Alaska Measure 2, the race was conducted using the state's ranked-choice voting procedures. Eleven candidates challenged Peltola in the August all-party primary. Republicans Nick Begich III, Nancy Dahlstrom, and Matthew Salisbury initially qualified for spots in the ranked-choice general election, but Dahlstrom and Salisbury withdrew shortly after the primary in a show of party unity.[1] The final general election ballot thus featured Peltola, Begich, Alaskan Independence Party nominee John Wayne Howe, and Democrat Eric Hafner. The Alaska Democratic Party attempted to have Hafner removed from the ballot due to his status as a federal prisoner in New York, but the Alaska Supreme Court rejected their arguments.[2]
Given Alaska's conservative lean, Peltola was considered a top target for Republicans throughout the cycle.[3] By late October, multiple outlets regarded Peltola as one of the 10 most vulnerable incumbents running for reelection in the House.[4][5] Despite Peltola's loss, she outperformed Kamala Harris in the concurrent 2024 presidential election in Alaska by about 10 points.
Begich was declared the winner on November 20, following the tabulation of ranked-choice votes.[6] He was sworn in on January 3, 2025.[7]
Candidates
Democratic Party
Advanced to general
- Mary Peltola, incumbent U.S. representative[8]
- Eric Hafner, federal prisoner and perennial candidate[9]
Republican Party
Advanced to general
- Nick Begich III, Alaska Policy Forum board member, grandson of former U.S. Representative Nick Begich Sr., and third-place finisher for U.S. House in 2022[10]
Withdrew after advancing to general
- Nancy Dahlstrom, Lieutenant Governor of Alaska[11]
- Matthew Salisbury, property claims adjustor[12]
Eliminated in primary
- Gerald Heikes, drywall contractor and perennial candidate[13]
No Labels
Eliminated in primary
- Richard Grayson, author, former co-chair of the Pinal County, Arizona Green Party, and perennial candidate[14]
Alaskan Independence Party
Advanced to general
- John Wayne Howe, chair of the Alaskan Independence Party, candidate for U.S. House in 2022, and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2020[12]
Independents
Eliminated in primary
Primary election
Endorsements
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
- Byron Donalds, FL-19 (2021–present)[18]
Individuals
- Vivek Ramaswamy, former CEO of Roivant Sciences and 2024 presidential candidate[19]
Organizations
Executive branch officials
- Donald Trump, former president of the United States (2017–present)[22] (switched endorsement to Begich after Dahlstrom withdrew)
Statewide officials
- Mike Dunleavy, governor of Alaska (2018–present)[23] (switched endorsement to Begich after Dahlstrom withdrew)
U.S. representatives
- Mike Johnson, speaker of the House (2023–present) from LA-04 (2017–present)[24] (switched endorsement to Begich after Dahlstrom withdrew)
- Elise Stefanik, NY-21 (2015–present)[24] (switched endorsement to Begich after Dahlstrom withdrew)
Organizations
U.S. senators
- Lisa Murkowski, Alaska (2002–present) (Republican)[27]
Labor unions
- AFSCME Local 52[28]
- Alaska AFL-CIO[29]
- Association of Flight Attendants[30]
- International Brotherhood of Teamsters Local 959[31]
- National Education Association[32]
Organizations
- AIPAC[33]
- Democratic Majority for Israel[34]
- EMILY's List[35]
- Feminist Majority PAC[36]
- Jewish Democratic Council of America[37]
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs[38]
- Koniag, Incorporated[39]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America[40]
- National Women's Political Caucus[41]
- NRA Political Victory Fund[42]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[43]
- Swing Left[44]
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of July 31, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Mary Peltola (D) | $7,541,673 | $5,396,920 | $2,836,013 |
| Nick Begich (R) | $982,905 | $851,591 | $172,548 |
| Nancy Dahlstrom (R) | $912,308 | $912,308 | $317,617 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[45] | |||
Polling
Top four primary
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Nick Begich (R) |
Nancy Dahlstrom (R) |
Mary Peltola (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress (D)[46] | February 23 – March 4, 2024 | 1,120 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 35% | 10% | 44% | 2%[b] | 8% |
| Remington Research (R)[47][A] | December 11–14, 2023 | 672 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 28% | 9% | 42% | 9%[c] | 11% |
Results
Peltola performed well in the primary, securing slightly more than 50% of the vote. She received the plurality of the vote in 33 out of 40 Alaska House of Representatives districts.[48] Her top three districts were the fourth district in Southeast Alaska (79.5% of the vote) as well as the 17th and the 19th districts located in Anchorage (75.3% and 71.0% of the vote respectively).
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Mary Peltola (incumbent) | 55,166 | 50.89% | |
| Republican | Nick Begich III | 28,803 | 26.57% | |
| Republican | Nancy Dahlstrom (withdrew) | 21,574 | 19.90% | |
| Republican | Matthew Salisbury (withdrew) | 652 | 0.60% | |
| Independence | John Wayne Howe | 621 | 0.57% | |
| Democratic | Eric Hafner | 467 | 0.43% | |
| Republican | Gerald Heikes | 424 | 0.39% | |
| Independent | Lady Donna Dutchess | 195 | 0.18% | |
| Independent | David Ambrose | 154 | 0.14% | |
| No Labels | Richard Grayson | 143 | 0.13% | |
| Independent | Richard Mayers | 119 | 0.11% | |
| Independent | Samuel Claesson | 89 | 0.08% | |
| Total votes | 108,407 | 100.00% | ||
General election
On August 23, Nancy Dahlstrom withdrew from the general election.[11] Despite initially stating he had no plans to withdraw, Matthew Salisbury also dropped out of the race.[50][51] They were replaced by fifth-place finisher John Wayne Howe of the Alaskan Independence Party and sixth-place finisher Eric Hafner, a Democrat.[51] Hafner remained on the ballot even though he has never been to Alaska, and was serving a 20-year sentence in a federal penitentiary in New York.[52] The Alaska Democratic Party sued to remove Hafner from the general election ballot, but an Anchorage Superior Court judge dismissed the lawsuit. The party appealed to the Alaska Supreme Court, who upheld the lower court's decision, keeping Hafner on the ballot.[2]
Post-primary endorsements
- U.S. senators
- Lisa Murkowski, Alaska (2002–present) (Republican)[53]
- Statewide officials
- Gretchen Whitmer, governor of Michigan (2019–present)[54]
- Organizations
- Executive branch officials
- Donald Trump, former president of the United States (2017–2021) (previously endorsed Dahlstrom)[57]
- U.S. senators
- Dan Sullivan, Alaska (2015–present)[58]
- U.S. representatives
- Tom Emmer, House majority whip (2023–present) from MN-06 (2015–present)[59]
- Mike Johnson, speaker of the House (2023–present) from LA-04 (2017–present) (previously endorsed Dahlstrom)[59]
- Jim Jordan, OH-04 (2007–present)[60]
- Scott Perry, PA-10 (2013–present)[59]
- Steve Scalise, House majority leader (2023–present) from LA-01 (2008–present)[59]
- Elise Stefanik, NY-21 (2015–present) (previously endorsed Dahlstrom)[59]
- Bruce Westerman, AR-04 (2015–present)[61]
- Statewide officials
- Mike Dunleavy, governor of Alaska (2018–present) (previously endorsed Dahlstrom)[62]
- Organizations
- Americans for Prosperity Action[63]
- Club for Growth[64]
- Gun Owners of America[65]
- National Federation of Independent Business[66]
- Political parties
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[68] | Tossup | September 6, 2024 |
| Inside Elections[69] | Tilt R (flip) | October 31, 2024 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[70] | Lean R (flip) | November 4, 2024 |
| Elections Daily[71] | Lean R (flip) | November 4, 2024 |
| CNalysis[72] | Tilt D | November 4, 2024 |
| Decision Desk HQ[73] | Tossup | October 22, 2024 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Mary Peltola (D) |
Nick Begich (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Viewpoint (R)[74][B] | September 14–17, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 40% | 44% | 6%[d] | 10% |
| Cygnal (R)[75][C] | August 30 – September 1, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 46% | 45% | – | 9% |
| American Viewpoint (R)[74][B] | Late August 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 39% | – | 16% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
RCV round |
Mary Peltola (D) |
Nick Begich (R) |
Nancy Dahlstrom (R) |
Chris Bye (L) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress (D)[77] | February 23 – March 2, 2024 | 1,120 (LV) | ± 3.0% | |||||
| 1 | 47% | 39% | 12% | 3% | ||||
| 2 | 48% | 41% | 12% | Elim | ||||
| 3 | 50% | 50% | Elim | Elim |
Debates and forums
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Republican | Independence | Democratic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
||||||||
| Peltola | Begich | Howe | Hafner | |||||
| 1[78] | Aug. 28, 2024 | Alaska Oil and Gas Association | Michelle Egan | YouTube | P | P | N | N |
| 2[79] | Oct. 8, 2024 | Kodiak Chamber of Commerce KMXT (FM) |
Terry Haines | YouTube | P | P | P | N |
| 3[80] | Oct. 10, 2024 | Alaska Chamber of Commerce | P | P | N | N | ||
| 4 | Oct. 10, 2024 | Alaska Public Media KTUU-TV |
Rebecca Palsha Lori Townsend |
YouTube | P | P | N | N |
Results
| Party | Candidate | First choice | Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | ||||
| Republican | Nick Begich III | 159,550 | 48.41% | 159,777 | 48.49% | +267 | 160,044 | 48.77% | +4,817 | 164,861 | 51.22% | ||
| Democratic | Mary Peltola (incumbent) | 152,828 | 46.37% | 152,948 | 46.42% | +1,313 | 154,261 | 47.01% | +2,724 | 156,985 | 48.78% | ||
| Independence | John Wayne Howe | 13,010 | 3.95% | 13,210 | 4.01% | +661 | 13,871 | 4.23% | -13,871 | Eliminated | |||
| Democratic | Eric Hafner | 3,417 | 1.04% | 3,558 | 1.08% | -3,558 | Eliminated | ||||||
| Write-in | 750 | 0.23% | Eliminated | ||||||||||
| Total votes | 329,555 | 329,493 | 328,176 | 321,846 | |||||||||
| Inactive ballots[e] | 6,360 | +1,317 | 7,677 | +6,330 | 14,007 | ||||||||
| Republican gain from Democratic | |||||||||||||
Notes
Partisan clients