2020 United States Senate election in Iowa
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The 2020 United States Senate election in Iowa was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Iowa, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Primaries were held on June 2.[1] Incumbent Republican Senator Joni Ernst won re-election to a second term, defeating Democratic nominee Theresa Greenfield.
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November 3, 2020
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   Ernst: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Greenfield: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% | |||||||||||||||||
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Most experts and pollsters considered this race and the concurrent presidential race as a tossup due to incumbent president Donald Trump's low approval ratings and Ernst's own popularity dropping in polls, partly due to a viral moment in a debate where she did not know the break-even price for soybeans.[2] Despite this, Ernst was reelected by a larger-than-expected 6.6 points, while Trump simultaneously won the state with a bigger yet similarly unexpected margin of victory. Ernst carried an overwhelming majority of the state's counties including many rural ones, while Greenfield carried only eight counties: Polk, Linn, Scott, Johnson, Black Hawk, Story, Cerro Gordo and Jefferson.[3]
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Joni Ernst, incumbent U.S. senator[4][5][6]
Withdrawn
Endorsements
Joni Ernst
Organizations
Result
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Joni Ernst (incumbent) | 226,589 | 98.64% | |
| Republican | Write-In | 3,132 | 1.36% | |
| Total votes | 229,721 | 100.00% | ||
Democratic primary
On June 2, 2020, Theresa Greenfield won the Democratic primary with 47.71% of the vote, defeating three other major candidates, including Michael Franken, a retired U.S. Navy admiral and former aide to U.S. Senator Ted Kennedy.[11][12][13][14][15]
Candidates
Nominee
- Theresa Greenfield, businesswoman, candidate for Iowa's 3rd congressional district in 2018[16]
Eliminated in primary
- Michael Franken, retired U.S. Navy admiral and former aide to U.S. Senator Ted Kennedy[17]
- Kimberly Graham, child welfare attorney[18][19]
- Eddie Mauro, businessman, teacher, candidate for Iowa's 3rd congressional district in 2018[20]
Withdrawn
Declined
- Cindy Axne, incumbent U.S. representative for Iowa's 3rd congressional district (running for reelection, endorsed Greenfield)[24]
- Chet Culver, former governor of Iowa[25]
- Deirdre DeJear, nominee for Secretary of State of Iowa in 2018[26]
- Abby Finkenauer, incumbent U.S. representative for Iowa's 1st congressional district (running for reelection, endorsed Greenfield)[27][28]
- Amber Gustafson, candidate for the Iowa Senate in 2018 (endorsed Greenfield)[29]
- Rita Hart, former state senator and nominee for Lieutenant Governor of Iowa in 2018 (running in Iowa's 2nd congressional district)[6][30][31]
- Rob Hogg, state senator[6][30]
- Liz Mathis, state senator[32]
- Rob Sand, Iowa State Auditor[6][33]
- J.D. Scholten, nominee for Iowa's 4th congressional district in 2018 (running in Iowa's 4th congressional district)[34]
- Tom Vilsack, former governor of Iowa and former U.S. Secretary of Agriculture[35]
- Stacey Walker, Linn County supervisor (endorsed Graham)[36][37]
- Steve Warnstadt, former state senator and intelligence officer in the Iowa Army National Guard[6][30]
Debates
Endorsements
Michael Franken
Federal officials
- Chuck Hagel, former U.S. Secretary of Defense (2013–2015) and U.S. Senator from Nebraska (1997–2009)[39] (Republican)
Kimberly Graham
Individuals
- Paula Jean Swearengin, Democratic nominee in 2020 West Virginia U.S. Senate race[40]
Organizations
- Association of Professional Flight Attendants[40]
- Brand New Congress[41]
- Sunrise Movement Cedar Rapids Chapter[42]
- Sunrise Movement Dubuque Chapter[40]
- Sunrise Movement University of Iowa Chapter[40]
Theresa Greenfield
Federal officials
- Sherrod Brown, U.S. senator from Ohio[43]
- Abby Finkenauer, U.S. representative (IA-01)[28]
- Gabby Giffords, former U.S. representative (AZ-08) (2007–2012)[44]
- Dave Loebsack, U.S. representative (IA-02)[45]
- Barack Obama, former U.S. President[46]
State officials
- Marti Anderson, state representative[44]
- Tony Bisignano, state senator[44]
- Joseph Bolkcom, state senator[44]
- Robert Dvorsky, former state senator (1995–2019) and state representative (1987–1995)[44]
- Ro Foege, former state representative (1996–2008)[44]
- John Forbes, state representative[44]
- Bruce Hunter, state representative[44]
- Pam Jochum, state senator and former Iowa Senate president (2013–2017)[44]
- Bob Kressig, state representative[44]
- Monica Kurth, state representative[44]
- Jim Lykam, state senator[44]
- Mary Mascher, state representative[44]
- Jo Oldson, state representative[44]
- Sally Pederson, former lieutenant governor (1997–2007)[44]
- Janet Petersen, state senator and Senate Minority Leader[44]
- Amanda Ragan, state senator[44]
- Joe Riding, former state representative (2013–2015)[44]
- Sharon Steckman, state representative[44]
- Kristin Sunde, state representative[44]
- Zach Wahls, state senator[44]
- Cindy Winckler, state representative[44]
Individuals
- Jon Bauman, Social Security Works PAC president and former Sha Na Na member (1970–1983)[44]
- Andy McGuire, former Iowa Democratic Party chair[44]
- Christie Vilsack, former Iowa First Lady (1997–2007)[44]
Unions
- American Federation of Government Employees[44]
- American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees Council 61[44]
- International Association of Bridge, Structural, Ornamental and Reinforcing Iron Workers Local 89, 67, 111, 577, 21[44]
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Iowa State Conference[44]
- International Brotherhood of Teamsters Local 238[44]
- United Food and Commercial Workers Local 431[44]
Organizations
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Michael Franken |
Kimberly Graham |
Theresa Greenfield |
Eddie Mauro |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[56] | May 5–6, 2020 | 849 (V) | – | 12% | 4% | 43% | 4% | 36% |
| Emerson College[57] | October 13–16, 2019 | 317 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 6% | 4% | 11% | 6% | 74% |
Results
Results by county:
Greenfield—70–80%
Greenfield—60–70%
Greenfield—50–60%
Greenfield—40–50%
Greenfield—<40%
Franken—<40%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Theresa Greenfield | 132,001 | 47.71% | |
| Democratic | Michael T. Franken | 68,851 | 24.88% | |
| Democratic | Kimberly Graham | 41,554 | 15.02% | |
| Democratic | Eddie Mauro | 30,400 | 10.99% | |
| Democratic | Cal Woods (withdrawn) | 3,372 | 1.21% | |
| Democratic | Write-In | 514 | 0.19% | |
| Total votes | 276,692 | 100.00% | ||
Other candidates
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Libertarian Party
Nominee
- Rick Stewart, Libertarian nominee for the 2018 Iowa Secretary of Agriculture election and independent candidate for the 2014 United States Senate election in Iowa[58]
Independents
Declared
- Suzanne Herzog, economist and former ER nurse[59]
General election
Major media described the campaign as one of the most likely to decide control of the Senate after the 2020 election.[60][61] Polls conducted after the primary showed a close contest between Greenfield and Ernst, with neither candidate leading by more than 4 points.[62][63][64][65]
Through June 2020, Greenfield had raised $11.5 million, compared to $14.6 million for Ernst but by September, Greenfield had pulled ahead, raising $40.0 million compared to $21.6 million for Ernst.[66][67][68] The race was expected to be the most expensive in the state's history,[69] and the second most expensive Senate race in the United States, after the 2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina, where Cal Cunningham challenged Thom Tillis.[70]
Debate
| Host | Date & time | Link(s) | Participants | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joni Ernst (R) | Theresa Greenfield (D) | |||
| Iowa Press Debates | September 28, 2020 | [71] | Present | Present |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[72] | Tossup | October 29, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[73] | Tossup | October 28, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[74] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
| Politico[75] | Tossup | November 2, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[76] | Tossup | October 30, 2020 |
| RCP[77] | Tossup | October 23, 2020 |
| DDHQ[78] | Tossup | November 3, 2020 |
| 538[79] | Tossup | November 2, 2020 |
| Economist[80] | Tossup | November 2, 2020 |
Additional general election endorsements
Theresa Greenfield (D)
Federal officials
- Joe Biden, 47th vice president of the United States, 2020 Democratic nominee for president
- Kirsten Gillibrand, U.S. senator from New York[83]
- Elizabeth Warren, U.S. senator from Massachusetts[84]
Unions
Newspapers
- Cedar Rapids Gazette[87]
- Des Moines Register[88]
- Dubuque Telegraph Herald[89]
- Iowa City Press-Citizen[90]
- Quad City Times[91]
Organizations
Polling
Graphical summary
View source data.
Aggregate polling
| Theresa Greenfield vs. Joni Ernst | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Theresa Greenfield | Joni Ernst | Other/Undecided[b] | Margin |
| Real Clear Politics[100] | November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 45.8% | 47.2% | 7.0% | Ernst +1.4 |
| 270 to Win[101] | November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 46.6% |
47.0% |
6.4% | Ernst +0.4 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joni Ernst (R) |
Theresa Greenfield (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[102] | November 1–2, 2020 | 871 (V) | – | 47% | 48% | – | 5% |
| Change Research (D)[103] | October 29 – November 1, 2020 | 1,084 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 48% | 3%[c] | 1% |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos[104] | October 29 – November 1, 2020 | 853 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 50% | 1%[d] | 1% |
| Data for Progress (D)[105] | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 951 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 45% | 49% | 6%[e] | – |
| Emerson College[106] | October 29–31, 2020 | 604 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 48%[f] | 51% | 2%[g] | – |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[107][A] | October 30, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 51% | 45% | 2%[h] | 3% |
| Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register[108] | October 26–29, 2020 | 814 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 46% | 42% | 4%[i] | 7% |
| Quinnipiac University[109] | October 23–27, 2020 | 1,225 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 48% | 46% | 1%[j] | 4% |
| RABA Research[110] | October 21–24, 2020 | 693 (LV) | ± 4% | 45% | 51% | – | – |
| Emerson College[111] | October 19–21, 2020 | 435 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 51%[f] | 46% | 3%[k] | – |
| RMG Research[112] | October 15–21, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 43%[l] | 46% | 3%[m] | 7% |
| 41%[n] | 48% | 3%[m] | 7% | ||||
| 45%[o] | 45% | 3%[m] | 7% | ||||
| Siena College/NYT Upshot[113] | October 18–20, 2020 | 753 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 45% | 44% | 6%[p] | 6% |
| Insider Advantage (R)[114][A] | October 18–19, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 43% | 48% | 5%[q] | 3% |
| Monmouth University[115] | October 15–19, 2020 | 501 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 47% | 3%[r] | 2% |
| 501 (LV)[s] | 47% | 49% | – | – | |||
| 501 (LV)[t] | 45% | 51% | – | – | |||
| Data for Progress (D)[116] | October 8–11, 2020 | 822 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 43% | 47% | 3%[u] | 6% |
| YouGov/CBS[117] | October 6–9, 2020 | 1,022 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 43% | 47% | 2%[v] | 8% |
| Opinion Insight (R)[118][B] | October 5–8, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.46% | 47%[f] | 45% | 4%[w] | 4% |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos[119] | October 3–6, 2020 | 756 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 46% | 49% | 3%[x] | 3% |
| Quinnipiac University[120] | October 1–5, 2020 | 1,205 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 45% | 50% | 1%[j] | 4% |
| Data for Progress (D)[121] | September 23–28, 2020 | 743 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 42%[l] | 44% | 2%[y] | 12% |
| 45%[z] | 46% | – | 9% | ||||
| Hart Research Associates (D)[122][C] | September 24–27, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 48% | – | – |
| RABA Research[123] | September 23–26, 2020 | 780 (LV) | ± 4% | 39% | 51% | – | – |
| Monmouth University[124] | September 18–22, 2020 | 402 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 47% | 47% | 1%[aa] | 4% |
| 402 (LV)[s] | 46% | 49% | 1%[ab] | 4% | |||
| 402 (LV)[t] | 47% | 48% | 1%[ab] | 4% | |||
| Siena College/NYT Upshot[125] | September 16–22, 2020 | 501 (LV) | ± 4.99% | 40% | 42% | 5%[ac] | 14% |
| Selzer/Des Moines Register[126] | September 14–17, 2020 | 658 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 45% | 5%[ad] | 7% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Hart Research Associates (D)[127][D] | August 30 – September 5, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 45% | 1%[ae] | 4% |
| Opinion Insight (R)[128][B] | August 30 – September 2, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.46% | 49%[f] | 43% | 1%[af] | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[129] | August 13–14, 2020 | 729 (V) | ± 4.1% | 45% | 48% | – | 8% |
| Monmouth University[130] | July 30 – August 3, 2020 | 401 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 45% | 3%[ag] | 3% |
| 401 (LV)[s] | 48% | 47% | 3%[ag] | 3% | |||
| 401 (LV)[t] | 48% | 47% | 3%[ah] | 2% | |||
| Data for Progress (D)[131] | July 24 – August 2, 2020 | 1,101 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 43% | 45% | 11%[ai] | – |
| RMG Research[132] | July 27–30, 2020 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 36% | 40% | – | 24% |
| Spry Strategies (R)[133][E] | July 11–16, 2020 | 701 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 43% | 45% | 6%[aj] | 7% |
| GQR Research (D)[134][F] | June 23–28, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 49% | – | 4% |
| Selzer/Des Moines Register[135] | June 7–10, 2020 | 674 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 43% | 46% | – | 11% |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos[136] | June 6–8, 2020 | 865 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 48% | – | 6% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[137][G] | June 3–4, 2020 | 963 (V) | ± 3.4% | 43% | 45% | – | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[138] | April 30 – May 1, 2020 | 1,222 (V) | ± 2.8% | 43% | 42% | – | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[139][F] | December 13–15, 2019 | 944 (V) | ± 3.4% | 47% | 41% | – | 12% |
| Emerson College[57] | October 13–16, 2019 | 888 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 40% | – | 14% |
| Lake Research Partners (D)[140][H] | April 24–29, 2019 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 56% | 34% | – | – |
Hypothetical polling
with Eddie Mauro
with Joni Ernst and generic Democrat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joni Ernst (R) |
Generic Democrat |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[142] | April 29–30, 2019 | 780 (V) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 44% | – |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[143][I] | June 30 – July 1, 2017 | 784 (V) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 41% | 12% |
with Joni Ernst and Generic Opponent
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joni Ernst (R) |
Generic Opponent |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co.[144] | March 2–5, 2020 | 667 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 41% | 31% | 3%[al] | 26%[am] |
with generic Republican and generic Democrat
Results
Ernst: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80%
Greenfield: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Joni Ernst (incumbent) | 864,997 | 51.74% | −0.36% | |
| Democratic | Theresa Greenfield | 754,859 | 45.15% | +1.39% | |
| Libertarian | Rick Stewart | 36,961 | 2.21% | +1.48% | |
| Independent | Suzanne Herzog | 13,800 | 0.83% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 1,211 | 0.07% | -0.03% | ||
| Total votes | 1,671,828 | 100.0% | |||
| Republican hold | |||||
By county
| County[146] | Joni Ernst Republican |
Theresa Greenfield Democratic |
Rick Stewart Libertarian |
Suzanne Herzog Independent |
Write-in | Margin | Total votes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Adair | 2,809 | 67.78 | 1,207 | 29.13 | 89 | 2.15 | 36 | 0.87 | 3 | 0.07 | 1,602 | 38.66 | 4,144 |
| Adams | 1,497 | 69.34 | 594 | 27.51 | 46 | 2.13 | 19 | 0.88 | 3 | 0.14 | 903 | 41.82 | 2,159 |
| Allamakee | 4,478 | 61.04 | 2,602 | 35.47 | 175 | 2.39 | 80 | 1.09 | 1 | 0.01 | 1,876 | 25.57 | 7,336 |
| Appanoose | 4,189 | 65.60 | 1,956 | 30.63 | 168 | 2.63 | 71 | 1.11 | 2 | 0.03 | 2,233 | 34.97 | 6,386 |
| Audubon | 2,188 | 64.89 | 1,092 | 32.38 | 70 | 2.08 | 21 | 0.62 | 1 | 0.03 | 1,096 | 32.50 | 3,372 |
| Benton | 8,830 | 60.93 | 5,202 | 35.90 | 331 | 2.28 | 120 | 0.83 | 9 | 0.06 | 3,628 | 25.03 | 14,492 |
| Black Hawk | 29,222 | 44.27 | 34,963 | 52.96 | 1,301 | 1.97 | 490 | 0.74 | 37 | 0.06 | -5,741 | -8.70 | 66,013 |
| Boone | 8,315 | 54.74 | 6,316 | 41.58 | 385 | 2.53 | 167 | 1.10 | 7 | 0.05 | 1,999 | 13.16 | 15,190 |
| Bremer | 8,196 | 56.72 | 5,911 | 40.91 | 254 | 1.76 | 84 | 0.58 | 5 | 0.03 | 2,285 | 15.81 | 14,450 |
| Buchanan | 6,063 | 56.64 | 4,292 | 40.10 | 248 | 2.32 | 96 | 0.90 | 5 | 0.05 | 1,771 | 16.55 | 10,704 |
| Buena Vista | 4,724 | 59.09 | 3,022 | 37.80 | 166 | 2.08 | 75 | 0.94 | 7 | 0.09 | 1,702 | 21.29 | 7,994 |
| Butler | 5,291 | 66.06 | 2,474 | 30.89 | 173 | 2.16 | 69 | 0.86 | 2 | 0.02 | 2,817 | 35.17 | 8,009 |
| Calhoun | 3,513 | 67.40 | 1,531 | 29.37 | 129 | 2.48 | 32 | 0.61 | 7 | 0.13 | 1,982 | 38.03 | 5,212 |
| Carroll | 7,245 | 64.91 | 3,580 | 32.07 | 230 | 2.06 | 96 | 0.86 | 11 | 0.10 | 3,665 | 32.83 | 11,162 |
| Cass | 4,725 | 65.95 | 2,259 | 31.53 | 120 | 1.67 | 54 | 0.75 | 7 | 0.10 | 2,466 | 34.42 | 7,165 |
| Cedar | 5,935 | 56.30 | 4,300 | 40.79 | 226 | 2.14 | 74 | 0.70 | 6 | 0.06 | 1,635 | 15.51 | 10,541 |
| Cerro Gordo | 11,339 | 48.19 | 11,534 | 49.02 | 430 | 1.83 | 211 | 0.90 | 16 | 0.07 | -195 | -0.83 | 23,530 |
| Cherokee | 4,214 | 65.59 | 2,002 | 31.16 | 138 | 2.15 | 67 | 1.04 | 4 | 0.06 | 2,212 | 34.43 | 6,425 |
| Chickasaw | 4,024 | 61.16 | 2,324 | 35.32 | 159 | 2.42 | 71 | 1.08 | 2 | 0.03 | 1,700 | 25.84 | 6,580 |
| Clarke | 2,906 | 63.05 | 1,520 | 32.98 | 119 | 2.58 | 60 | 1.30 | 4 | 0.09 | 1,386 | 30.07 | 4,609 |
| Clay | 5,716 | 64.46 | 2,861 | 32.26 | 193 | 2.18 | 89 | 1.00 | 9 | 0.10 | 2,855 | 32.19 | 8,868 |
| Clayton | 5,845 | 61.37 | 3,434 | 36.06 | 157 | 1.65 | 82 | 0.86 | 6 | 0.06 | 2,411 | 25.31 | 9,524 |
| Clinton | 12,559 | 51.57 | 10,942 | 44.93 | 635 | 2.61 | 200 | 0.82 | 15 | 0.06 | 1,617 | 6.64 | 24,351 |
| Crawford | 4,424 | 63.12 | 2,336 | 33.33 | 160 | 2.28 | 80 | 1.14 | 9 | 0.13 | 2,088 | 29.79 | 7,009 |
| Dallas | 28,727 | 51.69 | 25,427 | 45.75 | 1,006 | 1.81 | 381 | 0.69 | 33 | 0.06 | 3,300 | 5.94 | 55,574 |
| Davis | 2,728 | 67.51 | 1,167 | 28.88 | 112 | 2.77 | 32 | 0.79 | 2 | 0.05 | 1,561 | 38.63 | 4,041 |
| Decatur | 2,439 | 65.21 | 1,165 | 31.15 | 90 | 2.41 | 43 | 1.15 | 3 | 0.08 | 1,274 | 34.06 | 3,740 |
| Delaware | 6,454 | 64.96 | 3,235 | 32.56 | 172 | 1.73 | 71 | 0.71 | 4 | 0.04 | 3,219 | 32.40 | 9,936 |
| Des Moines | 9,468 | 48.27 | 9,296 | 47.39 | 591 | 3.01 | 232 | 1.18 | 29 | 0.15 | 172 | 0.88 | 19,616 |
| Dickinson | 7,149 | 63.92 | 3,791 | 33.90 | 174 | 1.56 | 66 | 0.59 | 4 | 0.04 | 3,358 | 30.03 | 11,184 |
| Dubuque | 26,034 | 49.05 | 25,433 | 47.91 | 1,148 | 2.16 | 428 | 0.81 | 37 | 0.07 | 601 | 1.13 | 53,080 |
| Emmet | 2,965 | 61.81 | 1,637 | 34.13 | 147 | 3.06 | 47 | 0.98 | 1 | 0.02 | 1,328 | 27.68 | 4,797 |
| Fayette | 5,865 | 58.06 | 3,912 | 38.73 | 229 | 2.27 | 89 | 0.88 | 7 | 0.07 | 1,953 | 19.33 | 10,102 |
| Floyd | 4,181 | 52.45 | 3,498 | 43.88 | 187 | 2.35 | 98 | 1.23 | 8 | 0.10 | 683 | 8.57 | 7,972 |
| Franklin | 3,270 | 64.55 | 1,639 | 32.35 | 100 | 1.97 | 50 | 0.99 | 7 | 0.14 | 1,631 | 32.20 | 5,066 |
| Fremont | 2,563 | 67.31 | 1,099 | 28.86 | 89 | 2.34 | 56 | 1.47 | 1 | 0.03 | 1,464 | 38.45 | 3,808 |
| Greene | 3,063 | 61.36 | 1,784 | 35.74 | 104 | 2.08 | 39 | 0.78 | 2 | 0.04 | 1,279 | 25.62 | 4,992 |
| Grundy | 4,900 | 67.90 | 2,120 | 29.38 | 154 | 2.13 | 38 | 0.53 | 5 | 0.07 | 2,780 | 38.52 | 7,217 |
| Guthrie | 4,103 | 64.86 | 2,000 | 31.62 | 162 | 2.56 | 56 | 0.89 | 5 | 0.08 | 2,103 | 33.24 | 6,326 |
| Hamilton | 4,679 | 59.42 | 2,913 | 36.99 | 190 | 2.41 | 84 | 1.07 | 9 | 0.11 | 1,766 | 22.43 | 7,875 |
| Hancock | 4,004 | 65.86 | 1,881 | 30.94 | 130 | 2.14 | 60 | 0.99 | 5 | 0.08 | 2,123 | 34.92 | 6,080 |
| Hardin | 5,639 | 63.80 | 2,920 | 33.04 | 195 | 2.21 | 84 | 0.95 | 1 | 0.01 | 2,719 | 30.76 | 8,839 |
| Harrison | 5,059 | 63.10 | 2,574 | 32.10 | 253 | 3.16 | 118 | 1.47 | 14 | 0.17 | 2,485 | 30.99 | 8,018 |
| Henry | 5,875 | 60.12 | 3,457 | 35.38 | 310 | 3.17 | 116 | 1.19 | 14 | 0.14 | 2,418 | 24.74 | 9,772 |
| Howard | 2,716 | 55.36 | 2,014 | 41.05 | 118 | 2.41 | 58 | 1.18 | 0 | 0.00 | 702 | 14.31 | 4,906 |
| Humboldt | 3,671 | 69.74 | 1,443 | 27.41 | 108 | 2.05 | 40 | 0.76 | 2 | 0.04 | 2,228 | 42.33 | 5,264 |
| Ida | 2,757 | 72.23 | 964 | 25.26 | 66 | 1.73 | 28 | 0.73 | 2 | 0.05 | 1,793 | 46.97 | 3,817 |
| Iowa | 5,794 | 60.13 | 3,541 | 36.75 | 205 | 2.13 | 84 | 0.87 | 11 | 0.11 | 2,253 | 23.38 | 9,635 |
| Jackson | 6,175 | 56.58 | 4,249 | 38.94 | 366 | 3.35 | 118 | 1.08 | 5 | 0.05 | 1,926 | 17.65 | 10,913 |
| Jasper | 11,405 | 56.95 | 7,905 | 39.47 | 531 | 2.65 | 167 | 0.83 | 18 | 0.09 | 3,500 | 17.48 | 20,026 |
| Jefferson | 4,008 | 45.50 | 4,547 | 51.62 | 163 | 1.85 | 80 | 0.91 | 10 | 0.11 | -539 | -6.12 | 8,808 |
| Johnson | 23,773 | 28.77 | 57,063 | 69.06 | 1,382 | 1.67 | 373 | 0.45 | 42 | 0.05 | -33,290 | -40.29 | 82,633 |
| Jones | 6,320 | 57.97 | 4,237 | 38.86 | 273 | 2.50 | 68 | 0.62 | 4 | 0.04 | 2,083 | 19.11 | 10,902 |
| Keokuk | 3,565 | 68.39 | 1,489 | 28.56 | 101 | 1.94 | 53 | 1.02 | 5 | 0.10 | 2,076 | 39.82 | 5,213 |
| Kossuth | 5,957 | 66.14 | 2,799 | 31.08 | 193 | 2.14 | 57 | 0.63 | 0 | 0.00 | 3,158 | 35.07 | 9,006 |
| Lee | 8,489 | 51.29 | 7,445 | 44.98 | 485 | 2.93 | 122 | 0.74 | 11 | 0.07 | 1,044 | 6.31 | 16,552 |
| Linn | 53,248 | 42.10 | 69,125 | 54.66 | 3,188 | 2.52 | 815 | 0.64 | 90 | 0.07 | -15,877 | -12.55 | 126,466 |
| Louisa | 3,259 | 61.97 | 1,804 | 34.30 | 141 | 2.68 | 51 | 0.97 | 4 | 0.08 | 1,455 | 27.67 | 5,259 |
| Lucas | 3,105 | 68.32 | 1,302 | 28.65 | 99 | 2.18 | 36 | 0.79 | 3 | 0.07 | 1,803 | 39.67 | 4,545 |
| Lyon | 5,522 | 81.80 | 1,073 | 15.89 | 104 | 1.54 | 50 | 0.74 | 2 | 0.03 | 4,449 | 65.90 | 6,751 |
| Madison | 6,245 | 64.25 | 3,168 | 32.59 | 218 | 2.24 | 86 | 0.88 | 3 | 0.03 | 3,077 | 31.66 | 9,720 |
| Mahaska | 7,860 | 70.00 | 2,969 | 26.44 | 273 | 2.43 | 118 | 1.05 | 8 | 0.07 | 4,891 | 43.56 | 11,228 |
| Marion | 12,211 | 64.06 | 6,269 | 32.89 | 423 | 2.22 | 144 | 0.76 | 15 | 0.08 | 5,942 | 31.17 | 19,062 |
| Marshall | 9,057 | 50.68 | 8,187 | 45.81 | 442 | 2.47 | 165 | 0.92 | 21 | 0.12 | 870 | 4.87 | 17,872 |
| Mills | 5,347 | 65.54 | 2,544 | 31.18 | 177 | 2.17 | 82 | 1.01 | 8 | 0.10 | 2,803 | 34.36 | 8,158 |
| Mitchell | 3,347 | 57.69 | 2,282 | 39.33 | 124 | 2.14 | 49 | 0.84 | 0 | 0.00 | 1,065 | 18.36 | 5,802 |
| Monona | 3,054 | 65.47 | 1,455 | 31.19 | 108 | 2.32 | 39 | 0.84 | 9 | 0.19 | 1,599 | 34.28 | 4,665 |
| Monroe | 2,742 | 68.40 | 1,148 | 28.64 | 84 | 2.10 | 34 | 0.85 | 1 | 0.02 | 1,594 | 39.76 | 4,009 |
| Montgomery | 3,633 | 68.53 | 1,520 | 28.67 | 98 | 1.85 | 46 | 0.87 | 4 | 0.08 | 2,113 | 39.86 | 5,301 |
| Muscatine | 10,278 | 50.28 | 9,381 | 45.89 | 570 | 2.79 | 199 | 0.97 | 13 | 0.06 | 897 | 4.39 | 20,441 |
| O'Brien | 5,675 | 76.05 | 1,640 | 21.98 | 105 | 1.41 | 38 | 0.51 | 4 | 0.05 | 4,035 | 54.07 | 7,462 |
| Osceola | 2,525 | 77.38 | 657 | 20.13 | 49 | 1.50 | 31 | 0.95 | 1 | 0.03 | 1,868 | 57.25 | 3,263 |
| Page | 5,152 | 69.27 | 2,067 | 27.79 | 138 | 1.86 | 78 | 1.05 | 3 | 0.04 | 3,085 | 41.48 | 7,438 |
| Palo Alto | 3,113 | 63.12 | 1,677 | 34.00 | 106 | 2.15 | 36 | 0.73 | 0 | 0.00 | 1,436 | 29.12 | 4,932 |
| Plymouth | 10,145 | 72.26 | 3,587 | 25.55 | 219 | 1.56 | 77 | 0.55 | 11 | 0.08 | 6,558 | 46.71 | 14,039 |
| Pocahontas | 2,641 | 69.87 | 1,003 | 26.53 | 91 | 2.41 | 39 | 1.03 | 6 | 0.16 | 1,638 | 43.33 | 3,780 |
| Polk | 106,443 | 41.54 | 142,328 | 55.54 | 5,313 | 2.07 | 1,985 | 0.77 | 188 | 0.07 | -35,885 | -14.00 | 256,257 |
| Pottawattamie | 24,720 | 54.85 | 18,520 | 41.10 | 1,269 | 2.82 | 524 | 1.16 | 32 | 0.07 | 6,200 | 13.76 | 45,065 |
| Poweshiek | 5,361 | 53.38 | 4,381 | 43.62 | 202 | 2.01 | 91 | 0.91 | 8 | 0.08 | 980 | 9.76 | 10,043 |
| Ringgold | 1,870 | 69.36 | 732 | 27.15 | 75 | 2.78 | 16 | 0.59 | 3 | 0.11 | 1,138 | 42.21 | 2,696 |
| Sac | 3,849 | 70.17 | 1,440 | 26.25 | 129 | 2.35 | 60 | 1.09 | 7 | 0.13 | 2,409 | 43.92 | 5,485 |
| Scott | 42,941 | 46.88 | 45,751 | 49.94 | 2,139 | 2.33 | 709 | 0.77 | 66 | 0.07 | -2,810 | -3.07 | 91,606 |
| Shelby | 4,489 | 67.06 | 1,989 | 29.71 | 156 | 2.33 | 57 | 0.85 | 3 | 0.04 | 2,500 | 37.35 | 6,694 |
| Sioux | 15,785 | 83.54 | 2,828 | 14.97 | 192 | 1.02 | 81 | 0.43 | 9 | 0.05 | 12,957 | 68.57 | 18,895 |
| Story | 20,750 | 41.08 | 28,216 | 55.86 | 1,133 | 2.24 | 370 | 0.73 | 44 | 0.09 | -7,466 | -14.78 | 50,513 |
| Tama | 5,090 | 56.74 | 3,588 | 40.00 | 205 | 2.29 | 79 | 0.88 | 8 | 0.09 | 1,502 | 16.74 | 8,970 |
| Taylor | 2,337 | 72.80 | 762 | 23.74 | 83 | 2.59 | 28 | 0.87 | 0 | 0.00 | 1,575 | 49.07 | 3,210 |
| Union | 3,820 | 62.38 | 2,051 | 33.49 | 172 | 2.81 | 76 | 1.24 | 5 | 0.08 | 1,769 | 28.89 | 6,124 |
| Van Buren | 2,583 | 68.84 | 1,065 | 28.38 | 75 | 2.00 | 28 | 0.75 | 1 | 0.03 | 1,518 | 40.46 | 3,752 |
| Wapello | 8,464 | 55.15 | 6,344 | 41.33 | 394 | 2.57 | 132 | 0.86 | 14 | 0.09 | 2,120 | 13.81 | 15,348 |
| Warren | 17,276 | 56.27 | 12,478 | 40.64 | 692 | 2.25 | 234 | 0.76 | 23 | 0.07 | 4,798 | 15.63 | 30,703 |
| Washington | 6,773 | 58.12 | 4,519 | 38.78 | 262 | 2.25 | 95 | 0.82 | 5 | 0.04 | 2,254 | 19.34 | 11,654 |
| Wayne | 2,186 | 71.55 | 784 | 25.66 | 53 | 1.73 | 28 | 0.92 | 4 | 0.13 | 1,402 | 45.89 | 3,055 |
| Webster | 10,195 | 57.81 | 6,845 | 38.81 | 403 | 2.29 | 173 | 0.98 | 19 | 0.11 | 3,350 | 19.00 | 17,635 |
| Winnebago | 3,336 | 56.29 | 2,361 | 39.84 | 153 | 2.58 | 72 | 1.21 | 4 | 0.07 | 975 | 16.45 | 5,926 |
| Winneshiek | 6,039 | 50.49 | 5,581 | 46.66 | 218 | 1.82 | 118 | 0.99 | 4 | 0.03 | 458 | 3.83 | 11,960 |
| Woodbury | 24,175 | 54.27 | 18,674 | 41.92 | 994 | 2.23 | 629 | 1.41 | 72 | 0.16 | 5,501 | 12.35 | 44,544 |
| Worth | 2,425 | 55.40 | 1,803 | 41.19 | 98 | 2.24 | 46 | 1.05 | 5 | 0.11 | 622 | 14.21 | 4,377 |
| Wright | 3,889 | 62.85 | 2,063 | 33.34 | 158 | 2.55 | 76 | 1.23 | 2 | 0.03 | 1,826 | 29.51 | 6,188 |
| Totals | 864,997 | 51.74 | 754,859 | 45.15 | 36,961 | 2.21 | 13,800 | 0.83 | 1,211 | 0.07 | 110,138 | 6.59 | 1,671,828 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Clinton (largest municipality: Clinton)
- Des Moines (largest municipality: Burlington)
- Dubuque (largest municipality: Dubuque)
- Floyd (largest municipality: Charles City)
- Howard (largest municipality: Cresco)
- Lee (largest municipality: Fort Madison)
- Worth (largest municipality: Northwood)
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
By congressional district
Ernst carried all four congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.
| District[145] | Joni Ernst Republican |
Theresa Greenfield Democratic |
Rick Stewart Libertarian |
Suzanne Herzog Independent |
Write-in | Margin | Total votes | Representative (2020) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | |||
| 1st district | 206,559 | 49.48 | 197,792 | 47.72 | 9,454 | 2.26 | 3,231 | 0.77 | 267 | 0.06 | 8,767 | 2.10 | 417,483 | Ashley Hinson |
| 2nd district | 199,741 | 49.17 | 193,588 | 47.65 | 9,426 | 2.32 | 3,197 | 0.79 | 295 | 0.07 | 6,153 | 1.51 | 406,247 | Mariannette Miller-Meeks |
| 3rd district | 221,267 | 48.75 | 218,756 | 48.20 | 9,747 | 2.15 | 3,757 | 0.83 | 321 | 0.07 | 2,511 | 0.55 | 453,848 | Cindy Axne |
| 4th district | 237,430 | 60.22 | 144,543 | 36.66 | 8,334 | 2.11 | 3,615 | 0.92 | 328 | 0.08 | 92,887 | 23.56 | 394,250 | Randy Feenstra |
| Totals | 864,997 | 51.74 | 754,859 | 45.15 | 36,961 | 2.21 | 13,800 | 0.83 | 1,211 | 0.07 | 110,138 | 6.59 | 1,671,828 | |
See also
Notes
Partisan clients
- Poll sponsored by The Center for American Greatness, a pro-Trump organization.
- Poll sponsored by The American Action Forum, which is a 501 organization which usually supports Republican candidates.
- Poll sponsored by The Human Rights Campaign, which has endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period.
- This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
- Poll sponsored by the End Citizens United, which has only supported Democratic candidates who are against the landmark Citizens United Supreme Court ruling.
- Poll sponsored by Emily's List, an organization that supports Democratic female candidates.
- Poll sponsored by the Eddie Mauro campaign
- Poll sponsored by Save My Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organization
Voter samples
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Stewart (L) with 2%; "Don't recall" with 1%; Herzog (I) and would not vote with 0%
- Stewart (L) with 1%; Herzog (I) and "Someone else" with 0%
- Herzog (I) with 3%; Stewart (L) with 2%; "Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
- With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- "Someone else" with 2%
- Herzog (I) and Stewart (L) with 1%
- "Refused" with 4%; "Someone else" and "Undecided/do not remember" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
- "Someone else" with 1%
- "Someone else" with 3%
- Standard VI response
- "Someone else" with 3%
- Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
- Results generated with high Republican turnout model
- Herzog (I) and Stewart (L) with 2%; "Someone else" and would not vote with 1%
- Stewart (L) with 5%; Herzog (I) with 0%
- Herzog (I), "No one" and Stewart (L) with 1%; "Other" with 0%
- With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
- With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
- Stewart (L) with 2%; Herzog (I) with 1%; "Other" with 0%
- "Someone else" with 2%
- Would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%
- Stewart (L) with 2%; Herzog (I) with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%
- Herzog (I) and Stewart (L) with 1%
- If the only candidates were Ernst and Greenfield
- Stewart (L) with 1%; Herzog (I), "Other" and "No one" with 0%
- Stewart (L) with 1; Herzog (I) with 0%
- Herzog (I) and Stewart (L) with 2%; would not vote with 1%; "someone else" with 0%
- "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 2%
- Would not vote with 1%
- Would not vote with 1%
- Stewart (L) with 2%; Herzog (I) with 1%
- Stewart (L) with 2%; Herzog (I) with 1%
- "No one" with 11%
- "Another candidate" with 6%
- Response after pollster addresses respondents with talking points about Ernst and Mauro
- Would not vote with 3%
- "Would consider voting for someone else" with 20%; "unsure" with 6%