2022 United States Senate election in Vermont
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The 2022 United States Senate election in Vermont was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Vermont. It was held concurrently with U.S. Senate elections in other states, along with elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections across the country. The incumbent senator, Democrat Patrick Leahy, announced on November 15, 2021, that he would not seek re-election to a ninth term,[1] leaving the seat open for the first time since 1974, when Leahy was first elected.
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November 8, 2022
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Welch: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Malloy: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% Tie: 40–50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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Primary elections were held on August 9, 2022, with Peter Welch, the incumbent U.S. Representative from the state's at-large congressional district, winning the Democratic primary, while U.S. Army veteran Gerald Malloy won the Republican primary. In heavily Democratic Vermont, the Democratic nomination is tantamount to election, and on election day, Welch defeated Malloy in a landslide. He won all but one county in the state, garnering 68.5% of the vote statewide to Malloy's 28.0%. The race was called for Welch shortly after polls closed.[2]
At 75 years old, Welch became the oldest person ever elected to a first term in the Senate, a record previously held by Frederick H. Gillett at age 73 in 1924 and the oldest person ever elected to a first term in the Senate during the 21st Century a record previously held by Marsha Blackburn at age 66 in 2018.[3] He also became only the second Democrat ever elected to the Senate from Vermont, after Leahy.[2]
Democratic primary
Following Leahy's announcement that he would retire, speculation arose as to which Democrats could run to succeed him; Newsweek cited two of the leading possible contenders for the nomination as Peter Welch, who had served as U.S. Representative for Vermont's at-large congressional district since 2006, and President pro tempore of the Vermont Senate Becca Balint.[4] Also considering a run was state representative Tanya Vyhovsky.[5] However, candidates were reluctant to enter the race due to speculation that Bernie Sanders, Vermont's popular junior senator, would endorse Welch for the open seat.[5] It was widely considered that an endorsement from Sanders would essentially lock up the race for Welch.[5] While both men were both considered to be associated with the left wing of the Democratic Party, Welch was noted by The Intercept to be rather more moderate than Sanders was, especially when compared to Vyhovsky.[5]
Welch announced his campaign for the seat on November 22, 2021, pledging in a campaign video to support Medicare for All and the Green New Deal; he was immediately endorsed by Sanders.[6][7]
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Declined
- Becca Balint, President pro tempore of the Vermont Senate[12][13][14][15] (ran for and elected to U.S. House)[16]
- Sarah Copeland-Hanzas, state representative[12]
- T. J. Donovan, Vermont Attorney General[17][18][12]
- Molly Gray, Lieutenant Governor of Vermont[12][15] (ran for U.S. House)[19]
- Christine Hallquist, businesswoman and nominee for Governor of Vermont in 2018[20]
- Jill Krowinski, Speaker of the Vermont House of Representatives[12][21]
- Patrick Leahy, incumbent U.S. senator and president pro tempore[1]
- Kesha Ram Hinsdale, state senator and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2016[15] (endorsed Welch; ran for and won re-election)[22][23]
- Tanya Vyhovsky, state representative[24][25][a] (ran for and elected to state senate)[26]
- David Zuckerman, former lieutenant governor of Vermont and Democratic and Progressive nominee for governor in 2020 (ran for and elected lieutenant governor)[27][a]
Endorsements
Organizations
U.S. Senators
- Bernie Sanders, U.S. Senator from Vermont (2007–present), former U.S. Representative for Vermont's at-large congressional district (1991–2007), and candidate for President of the United States in 2016 and 2020[29]
State legislators
- Kesha Ram Hinsdale, state senator (2021–present) and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2016[30]
Organizations
- Council for a Livable World[31]
- End Citizens United[32]
- Giffords[33]
- League of Conservation Voters[34]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America[35]
- Population Connection Action Fund[36]
Labor unions
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Isaac Evans-Frantz |
Niki Thran |
Peter Welch |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[38] | July 21–25, 2022 | 352 (LV) | ± 5.2% | 6% | 1% | 82% | 0% | 10% |
Results
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- 90–100%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Peter Welch | 86,603 | 87.01% | |
| Democratic | Isaac Evans-Frantz | 7,230 | 7.26% | |
| Democratic | Niki Thran | 5,104 | 5.13% | |
| Write-in | 599 | 0.60% | ||
| Total votes | 99,536 | 100.0% | ||
Republican primary
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Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
- Myers Mermel, commercial real estate banker[42]
- Christina Nolan, former U.S. Attorney for the District of Vermont[43]
Declined
- Jim Douglas, former governor of Vermont and nominee for U.S. Senate in 1992[44]
- Phil Scott, Governor of Vermont (endorsed Nolan; running for re-election)[45]
Endorsements
U.S. Senators
- Susan Collins, U.S. Senator from Maine (1997–present)[47]
- Mitch McConnell, Senate Minority Leader and U.S. Senator from Kentucky (1985–present)[48]
Governors
- Jim Douglas, former governor of Vermont (2003–2011)[49]
- Phil Scott, Governor of Vermont (2017–present)[50]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Gerald Malloy |
Myers Mermel |
Christina Nolan |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[38] | July 21–25, 2022 | 196 (LV) | ± 7.0% | 30% | 3% | 24% | 43% |
Results
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Gerald Malloy | 12,169 | 42.39% | |
| Republican | Christina Nolan | 10,825 | 37.70% | |
| Republican | Myers Mermel | 5,227 | 18.21% | |
| Write-in | 489 | 1.70% | ||
| Total votes | 28,710 | 100.0% | ||
Progressive primary
Candidates
Withdrew after winning primary
Declined
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progressive | Martha Abbott | 473 | 86.63% | |
| Write-in | 73 | 13.37% | ||
| Total votes | 546 | 100.0% | ||
Minor-parties and independents
Candidates
Declared
- Mark Coester, truck driver[53]
- Natasha Diamondstone-Kohout (Green Mountain)[52]
- Stephen Duke[52]
- Dawn Marie Ellis[52]
- Cris Ericson, perennial candidate[52]
- Kerry Patrick Raheb, former stockbroker[54][55]
Declined
- Christopher Helali (Party of Communists USA), farmer and teacher[56]
- Brock Pierce, cryptocurrency investor, former actor, and candidate for president of the United States in 2020[57][58]
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[59] | Solid D | November 19, 2021 |
| Inside Elections[60] | Solid D | January 7, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[61] | Safe D | November 3, 2021 |
| Politico[62] | Solid D | August 12, 2022 |
| RCP[63] | Safe D | November 1, 2022 |
| Fox News[64] | Solid D | May 12, 2022 |
| DDHQ[65] | Solid D | July 20, 2022 |
| 538[66] | Solid D | June 30, 2022 |
| The Economist[67] | Safe D | September 7, 2022 |
Post-primary endorsements
Statewide officials
- Beth Pearce, Vermont State Treasurer (2011–2023)[68]
State legislators
Local officials
Newspapers
Organizations
- Brady Campaign[68]
- Everytown for Gun Safety[68]
- Human Rights Campaign[70]
- Indivisible Project[68]
- Let America Vote[68]
- National Education Association[68]
- Natural Resources Defense Council[68]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[68]
- Rights and Democracy Vermont[68]
- Sierra Club[71]
- Vermont College Democrats[68]
- Vermont State Employees Association[68]
U.S. Executive Branch officials
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)[72]
Individuals
- Paul Hurley, Roman Catholic priest for the Archdiocese of Boston and former U.S. Army Chief of Chaplains[73]
- Rich Staats, retired U.S. Army major general and former commanding general of the 75th Innovation Command[73]
State legislators
- Mark Higley, state representative[74]
- Larry Labor, state representative[74]
- Art Peterson, state representative[74]
- Vicki Strong, state representative[74]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Peter Welch (D) |
Gerald Malloy (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress (D)[75] | October 21–26, 2022 | 1,039 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 63% | 32% | – | 4% |
| University of New Hampshire[76] | September 29 – October 3, 2022 | 765 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 62% | 28% | 2%[c] | 8% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[77] | September 3–7, 2022 | 1,072 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 50% | 43% | 2% | 5% |
Peter Welch vs. Christina Nolan
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Peter Welch (D) |
Christina Nolan (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[78] | April 14–18, 2022 | 583 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 62% | 27% | 1% | 10% |
Patrick Leahy vs. Phil Scott
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Patrick Leahy (D) |
Phil Scott (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VPR/Vermont PBS[79] | September 3–15, 2020 | 582 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 41% | 7% | 15% |
Debates
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn |
||||||
| Peter Welch | Gerard Malloy | |||||
| 1 | Oct. 13, 2022 | Vermont Public Radio | Mikaela Lefrak | Youtube | P | P |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Peter Welch | 196,575 | 68.47% | +7.21% | |
| Republican | Gerald Malloy | 80,468 | 28.03% | −5.00% | |
| Independent | Dawn Marie Ellis | 2,752 | 0.96% | N/A | |
| Green Mountain | Natasha Diamondstone-Kohout | 1,574 | 0.55% | N/A | |
| Independent | Kerry Patrick Raheb | 1,532 | 0.53% | N/A | |
| Independent | Mark Coester | 1,273 | 0.44% | N/A | |
| Independent | Stephen Duke | 1,209 | 0.42% | N/A | |
| Independent | Cris Ericson | 1,105 | 0.38% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 612 | 0.21% | +0.11% | ||
| Total votes | 287,100 | 100% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
By county
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See also
Notes
- Candidate is a member of the Progressive Party, but ran with the Democratic Party's endorsement under Vermont's electoral fusion system
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Ericson (I) with 1%; Ellis (I) with 1%