2022 Vermont gubernatorial election
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The 2022 Vermont gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Vermont. Incumbent Republican governor Phil Scott won re-election to a fourth term in a landslide, defeating Democratic nominee Brenda Siegel.[1][2]
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November 8, 2022
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| Turnout | 57.62%  | |||||||||||||||||||
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Scott: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Siegel: 50–60% No votes | ||||||||||||||||||||
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This race was one of six Republican-held governorships up for election in 2022 in a state carried by Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election. During the 2022 season, Scott enjoyed one of the highest approval ratings of any governor in the nation, and was expected to easily win reelection. As such, he carried every municipality in the state, this time with the largest margin in a Vermont gubernatorial race since Howard Dean's landslide in 1996. Scott's 47-point victory margin was the largest for a Republican candidate since 1950, even while Democratic congressman Peter Welch won the concurrent U.S. Senate election by a 40-point margin. This was the second-most lopsided gubernatorial election of the 2022 cycle, only behind the election in Wyoming.
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Phil Scott, incumbent governor[1]
Eliminated in primary
Declined
- H. Brooke Paige, historian and perennial candidate (running for multiple statewide offices)[a][4]
Results
Scott
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Phil Scott (incumbent) | 20,319 | 68.56% | |
| Republican | Stephen C. Bellows | 5,402 | 18.22% | |
| Republican | Peter Duval | 3,627 | 12.24% | |
| Write-in | 290 | 0.98% | ||
| Total votes | 29,638 | 100.0% | ||
Progressive primary
Candidates
Withdrew after winning primary
Replacement nominee
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progressive | Susan Hatch Davis | 470 | 87.36% | |
| Write-in | 68 | 12.64% | ||
| Total votes | 538 | 100.0% | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
Declined
- Becca Balint, President pro tempore of the Vermont Senate[11] (running for U.S. House)[12]
- T. J. Donovan, former Vermont Attorney General[11]
- Molly Gray, Lieutenant Governor of Vermont[11] (ran for U.S. House)[13]
- Jill Krowinski, Speaker of the Vermont House of Representatives (running for re-election)[11]
- Doug Racine, former lieutenant governor of Vermont and candidate for governor in 2002 and 2010[14][9]
Endorsements
Brenda Siegel
Federal politicians
- Peter Welch, U.S. representative for Vermont's at-large congressional district[15]
State politicians
- Becca Balint, president pro tempore of the Vermont Senate[15]
- Howard Dean, former governor of Vermont and former chair of the Democratic National Committee[15]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Brenda Siegel | 56,287 | 85.92% | |
| Write-in | 9,227 | 14.08% | ||
| Total votes | 65,514 | 100.0% | ||
Independents
Write-ins
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[17] | Solid R | March 4, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[18] | Solid R | July 22, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] | Safe R | August 18, 2022 |
| Politico[20] | Solid R | November 3, 2022 |
| RCP[21] | Safe R | November 1, 2022 |
| Fox News[22] | Solid R | August 22, 2022 |
| 538[23] | Solid R | August 26, 2022 |
| Elections Daily[24] | Safe R | November 7, 2022 |
Polling
Graphical summary
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Phil Scott (R) |
Brenda Siegel (D/P) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress (D)[25] | October 21–26, 2022 | 1,039 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 65% | 24% | 5%[c] | 6% |
| University of New Hampshire[26] | September 29 – October 3, 2022 | 865 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 31% | 9%[d] | 13% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[27] | September 3–7, 2022 | 1,072 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 68% | 15% | 5% | 12% |
| University of New Hampshire[28] | July 21–25, 2022 | 651 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 60% | 16% | 8%[e] | 16% |
Hypothetical polling
Phil Scott vs. generic opponent
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Phil Scott (R) |
Generic Opponent |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[29] | April 14–18, 2022 | 583 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 50% | 25% | 24% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Phil Scott (incumbent) | 202,147 | 70.91% | +0.75 | |
| Democratic/Progressive | Brenda Siegel[f] | 68,248 | 23.94% | ||
| Independent | Kevin Hoyt | 6,022 | 2.06% | +0.80 | |
| Independent | Peter Duval | 4,723 | 1.62% | N/A | |
| Independent | Bernard Peters | 2,315 | 0.79% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 1,346 | 0.46% | +0.02 | ||
| Total votes | 284,801 | 100% | |||
| Rejected ballots | 255 | ||||
| Blank ballots | 6,899 | ||||
| Turnout | 291,955 | 57.62% | |||
| Registered electors | 506,666 | ||||
| Republican hold | |||||
By county
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See also
Notes
- Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in 2012 and 2018; Democratic candidate for Attorney General in 2014 and 2016; Republican nominee for Attorney General in 2018 and 2020; Democratic candidate for Governor in 2014 and 2016; Republican nominee for Secretary of State in 2018 and 2020; Republican candidate for the US House in 2018; Republican candidate for Auditor of Accounts in 2018.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Hoyt (I) with 3%; Duval (I) with 1%; Peters (I) with 1%
- Hoyt and Duval with 3%; Peters with 2%; "Other" with 1%
- Davis and "Other" with 4%
- Candidate received the nominations of both the Democratic and Progressive parties and will be listed on the ballot as "Democratic/Progressive" (candidate is primarily a Democrat).