2022 United States House of Representatives election in Vermont
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The 2022 United States House of Representatives election in Vermont was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the U.S. representative from Vermont's at-large congressional district. The election coincided with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the U.S. Senate, as well as various other state and local elections.
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November 8, 2022
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   Balint: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Madden: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Democrat Peter Welch was re-elected with 67.3% of the vote in 2020. After eight-term U.S. Senator Patrick Leahy announced he would retire on November 15, some speculated that Welch might decline to seek re-election and instead seek election to the Senate.[1] On November 22, 2021, Welch announced his candidacy for Leahy's seat, creating the first open U.S. House seat in Vermont since Bernie Sanders ran for the U.S. Senate in 2006.[2]
Democratic nominee Becca Balint won the election in a landslide, becoming the first elected female member of the United States Congress in the state's history. Her main opponent in the general election, Liam Madden, won the Republican nomination but identifies as an independent who opposes the two-party system.[3] Madden stated that he would not caucus with House Republicans if elected to Congress; the Vermont Republican Party later disavowed his campaign.[4] Ericka Redic, who lost the Republican primary to Madden, ran in the general election as the nominee of the Libertarian Party.[5]
Vermont was the last remaining state that had never elected a woman to the United States Congress after Mississippi elected its first woman, Cindy Hyde-Smith, in 2018. With Balint's victory, every U.S. state has now been represented in Congress by a woman at some point. Balint is also the first openly LGBTQ person to be elected to Congress from Vermont.[6]
Democratic primary
A somewhat crowded initial primary field featuring Vermont Senate president pro tempore Becca Balint, Lieutenant Governor Molly Gray, state senator Kesha Ram Hinsdale, former congressional staffer Sianay Chase Clifford, and physician Louis Meyers was eventually winnowed down to Balint, Gray, and Meyers following the withdrawals of Ram and Chase Clifford in mid-2022. Balint received the support of Senator Bernie Sanders,[7] and national leaders of the progressive movement such as Elizabeth Warren[8] and Pramila Jayapal,[7] the latter of whom backed Balint after Ram withdrew. Ram herself also supported Balint following her withdrawal.[9] Gray received backing from members of Vermont's Democratic establishment, such as Senator Patrick Leahy[10] and former governors Madeleine Kunin[11] and Howard Dean.[12]
Candidates
Nominee
- Becca Balint, state senator (2015–2023) and Vermont Senate president pro tempore (2021–2023)[13]
Eliminated in primary
- Molly Gray, Lieutenant Governor of Vermont (2021–2023)[14]
- Louis Meyers, physician at Rutland Regional Medical Center[15]
Withdrew
- Sianay Chase Clifford, former aide to U.S. Representative Ayanna Pressley[16][17]
- Kesha Ram Hinsdale, state senator (2021–present) and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2016 (endorsed Balint; successfully ran for re-election)[9]
Declined
- T. J. Donovan, Vermont Attorney General (2017–2022)[18]
- Jill Krowinski, Speaker of the Vermont House of Representatives (2021–present)[19]
- Deborah Markowitz, former Vermont Secretary of State (1999–2011)[18]
- Tanya Vyhovsky, state representative (2021–2023)[a][20][21] (successfully ran for state senate)[22]
- Peter Welch, incumbent U.S. Representative (2007–2023) (successfully ran for U.S. Senate)[2]
Endorsements
U.S. Senators
- Ed Markey, U.S. Senator from Massachusetts (2013–present)[23]
- Bernie Sanders, U.S. Senator from Vermont (2007–present)[24][7]
- Elizabeth Warren, U.S. Senator from Massachusetts (2013–present)[8]
U.S. Representatives
- David Ciciline, U.S. Representative for Rhode Island's 1st congressional district (2011–present)[25]
- Pramila Jayapal, U.S. Representative for Washington's 7th congressional district (2017–present)[7] (previously endorsed Ram)[26]
- Ro Khanna, U.S. Representative for California's 17th congressional district (2017–present)[25]
- Mark Pocan, U.S. Representative for Wisconsin's 2nd congressional district (2013–present)[25]
- Jamie Raskin, U.S. Representative for Maryland's 8th congressional district (2017–present)[7]
- Mark Takano, U.S. Representative for California's 41st congressional district (2013–present)[25]
State officials
- Beth Pearce, Vermont State Treasurer (2011–present)[27]
State legislators
- Philip Baruth, State Senator D/P-Chittenden[28]
- John Campbell, former state senator D-Windsor and former President pro tempore of the Vermont Senate[28]
- Alison H. Clarkson, State Senator D-Windsor[28]
- Peter Conlon, State Representative D-Addison 2 (2017–present)[29][better source needed]
- Sarah Copeland-Hanzas, State Representative, D-Bradford[28]
- Ann Cummings, State Senator D-Washington[28]
- Mitzi Johnson, former Speaker of the Vermont House of Representatives
- Jane Kitchel, State Senator D-Caledonia[28]
- Ginny Lyons, State Senator D-Chittenden[28]
- Dick Mazza, State Senator D-Grand Isle and Dean of the Senate[28]
- Andrew Perchlik, State Senator D/P-Washington[28]
- Kesha Ram Hinsdale, State Senator, D-Chittenden[9]
- Laura Sibilia, State Representative I-Windham-Bennington (2015–present)[30]
- Robert Starr, State Senator D-Essex/Orleans[28]
- Mary Sullivan, former state representative from Chittenden 7-1 (1991–2001) and Chittenden 6-5 (2015–2021)[31]
- Jeanette White, State Senator D-Windham[28]
Individuals
- Bill McKibben, environmental activist and author[32] (previously endorsed Ram)[33]
Labor unions
- American Federation of Teachers Vermont[34]
- Vermont Building Trades Council[35]
- Vermont State Firefighters' Association[27]
Organizations
- Brand New Congress[36] (previously endorsed Ram)[36]
- Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC[37]
- Equality PAC[38]
- Human Rights Campaign[39]
- League of Conservation Voters[40]
- LGBTQ Victory Fund[38]
- LPAC[38]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America (post-primary)[41]
- Progressive Change Campaign Committee[42]
- Protect Our Future[43]
- Sierra Club[44]
Organizations
Executive branch officials
- Madeleine Kunin, Governor of Vermont (1985–1991), U.S. Ambassador to Liechtenstein (1997–1999), U.S. Ambassador to Switzerland (1996–1999), U.S. Deputy Secretary of Education (1993–1996), Lieutenant Governor of Vermont (1979–1983)[11]
U.S. Senators
- Patrick Leahy, President pro tempore of the United States Senate (2012-2015, 2021-2023) and U.S. Senator from Vermont (1975–2023)[10]
State officials
- Howard Dean, former governor of Vermont (1991–2003) and chair of the Democratic National Committee (2005–2009)[12]
U.S. Representatives
Pramila Jayapal, U.S. Representative for Washington's 7th congressional district (2017–present)[26] (switched endorsement to Balint after Ram withdrew)[7]
State legislators
- Hal Colston, State Representative from Chittenden 6-7 (2019–present)[33]
- Mari Cordes, State Representative from Addison 4 (2019–present)[33] (Progressive)
- Jim McCullough, State Representative from Chittenden-2 (2003–present)[33]
- Taylor Small, State Representative from Chittenden 6-7 (2021–present)[33] (Progressive)
State legislators
- Nina Turner, former Ohio State Senator from the 25th district (2008–2014) and national co-chair of the 2020 Bernie Sanders presidential campaign[45]
Individuals
Bill McKibben, environmental activist and author[33] (switched endorsement to Balint after Ram withdrew)[32]
Labor unions
- Communications Workers of America District 1[35]
- Vermont AFL–CIO[28]
Organizations
Brand New Congress[36] (switched endorsement to Balint after Ram withdrew)[36]
Polling
Graphical summary
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Becca Balint |
Sianay Chase Clifford |
Molly Gray |
Louis Meyers |
Kesha Ram |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress (D)[46] | July 27 – August 1, 2022 | 383 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 59% | 1% | 27% | 1% | – | – | 12% |
| University of New Hampshire[47] | July 21–25, 2022 | 352 (LV) | ± 5.2% | 63% | – | 21% | 2% | – | 0% | 13% |
| Sianay Chase Clifford drops out of the race | ||||||||||
| Kesha Ram drops out of the race | ||||||||||
| University of New Hampshire[48] | April 14–18, 2022 | 278 (LV) | ± 5.9% | 28% | 0% | 21% | – | 19% | 1% | 31% |
| VPR/Vermont PBS[49] | January 3–9, 2022 | 418 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 11% | – | 31% | – | 0% | 12% | 47% |
Debate
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Democratic | Democratic | Democratic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
||||||||
| Becca Balint | Sianay Chase Clifford | Molly Gray | Louis Meyers | |||||
| 1 | Jul. 6, 2022 | WPTZ | Brian Colleran Alice Kang Stewart Ledbetter |
[50] | P | P | P | P |
Results
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- 90–100%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- 90–100%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Becca Balint | 61,025 | 60.6% | |
| Democratic | Molly Gray | 37,266 | 37.0% | |
| Democratic | Louis Meyers | 1,593 | 1.6% | |
| Democratic | Sianay Chase Clifford (withdrawn) | 885 | 0.9% | |
| Total votes | 100,769 | 100.0% | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Liam Madden, former leader of About Face: Veterans Against the War[51][52]
Eliminated in primary
Declined
- Felisha Leffler, state representative (2019–present)[18]
- Heidi Scheuermann, state representative (2007–present)[18]
- Phil Scott, Governor of Vermont (2017–present) (running for re-election)[56]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Liam Madden |
Ericka Redic |
Anya Tynio |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[47] | July 21–25, 2022 | 196 (LV) | ± 7.0% | 14% | 15% | 9% | 61% |
Results
Liam Madden won the primary in a surprise victory, as Redic was considered the frontrunner.[4] The Vermont Republican Party disavowed Madden's campaign following a meeting with him on August 15, less than a week after his victory in the primary, citing his refusal to commit to caucusing with the Republican Party if he won the election.[4] Redic announced that she would continue her campaign into the general election as the candidate of the Libertarian Party of Vermont.[5]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Liam Madden | 10,701 | 41.4% | |
| Republican | Ericka Bundy Redic | 8,255 | 31.9% | |
| Republican | Anya Tynio | 6,908 | 26.7% | |
| Total votes | 25,864 | 100.0% | ||
Progressive primary
Candidates
Withdrew after winning primary
Declined
- Tanya Vyhovsky, state representative (2021–present)[20][21] (running for state senate)[22]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progressive | Barbara Nolfi | 439 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 439 | 100.0 | ||
Independents and other parties
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Candidates
Declared
Withdrawn
General election
Debate
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
||||||
| Becca Balint | Liam Madden | |||||
| 1 | Oct. 11, 2022 | Vermont Public | Connor Cyrus | [59] | P | P |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[60] | Solid D | October 5, 2021 |
| Inside Elections[61] | Solid D | October 11, 2021 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[62] | Safe D | October 5, 2021 |
| Politico[63] | Solid D | April 5, 2022 |
| RCP[64] | Safe D | June 9, 2022 |
| Fox News[65] | Solid D | July 11, 2022 |
| DDHQ[66] | Solid D | July 20, 2022 |
| 538[67] | Solid D | June 30, 2022 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Becca Balint (D) |
Liam Madden (R) |
Ericka Redic (L) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress (D)[68] | October 21–26, 2022 | 1,039 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 54% | 29% | 5% | 3%[c] | 9% |
| University of New Hampshire[69] | September 29 – October 3, 2022 | 765 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 57% | 19% | 9% | 11%[d] | 12% |
Becca Balint vs. Marcia Horne
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Becca Balint (D) |
Marcia Horne (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[48] | April 14–18, 2022 | 583 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 48% | 25% | 0% | 26% |
Sianay Chase Clifford vs. Marcia Horne
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Sianay Chase Clifford (D) |
Marcia Horne (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[48] | April 14–18, 2022 | 583 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 42% | 25% | 0% | 33% |
Molly Gray vs. Marcia Horne
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Molly Gray (D) |
Marcia Horne (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[48] | April 14–18, 2022 | 583 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 49% | 27% | 1% | 23% |
Kesha Ram vs. Marcia Horne
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Kesha Ram (D) |
Marcia Horne (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[48] | April 14–18, 2022 | 583 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 47% | 26% | 0% | 27% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Becca Balint | 176,494 | 60.45% | –6.86% | |
| Republican | Liam Madden | 78,297 | 26.85% | –0.16% | |
| Libertarian | Ericka Redic | 12,590 | 4.31% | N/A | |
| Independent | Matt Druzba | 5,737 | 1.97% | N/A | |
| Independent | Luke Talbot | 4,428 | 1.52% | N/A | |
| Independent | Adam Ortiz | 3,376 | 1.16% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 1,004 | 0.34% | +0.19% | ||
| Total votes | 291,955 | 100.00% | |||
| Democratic hold | |||||
By county
| County | Becca Balint Democratic |
Liam Madden Republican |
Various candidates Other parties | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | |
| Addison | 11,471 | 64.5% | 4,683 | 26.3% | 1,632 | 9.2% |
| Bennington | 9,276 | 59.4% | 4,927 | 31.6% | 1,409 | 9.0% |
| Caledonia | 6,646 | 52.9% | 4,420 | 35.2% | 1,491 | 11.9% |
| Chittenden | 53,864 | 71.7% | 14,556 | 19.4% | 6,677 | 8.9% |
| Essex | 889 | 37.6% | 1,057 | 44.7% | 421 | 17.8% |
| Franklin | 9,300 | 48.1% | 7,594 | 39.3% | 2,426 | 12.5% |
| Grand Isle | 2,189 | 56.0% | 1,264 | 32.3% | 455 | 11.6% |
| Lamoille | 7,245 | 64.4% | 2,932 | 26.1% | 1,065 | 9.4% |
| Orange | 7,855 | 57.4% | 4,539 | 33.2% | 1,290 | 9.4% |
| Orleans | 5,091 | 48.3% | 4,098 | 38.8% | 1,361 | 12.8% |
| Rutland | 12,476 | 48.2% | 10,050 | 38.8% | 3,364 | 13.0% |
| Washington | 18,716 | 68.0% | 6,577 | 23.9% | 2,244 | 8.1% |
| Windham | 14,299 | 71.9% | 4,445 | 27.3% | 1,156 | 5.9% |
| Windsor | 17,177 | 64.6% | 7,255 | 27.3% | 2,144 | 8.0% |
| Totals | 176,494 | 62.6% | 78,397 | 27.8% | 27,135 | 9.6% |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Notes
- Candidate is a member of the Progressive Party, but ran with the Democratic Party's endorsement under Vermont's electoral fusion system
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Talbot (I), Oritz (I), and Druzba (I) with 1%
- Talbot (I) and "Other" with 1%; Ortiz (I) and Druzba (I) with 0%