2024 Montana gubernatorial election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The 2024 Montana gubernatorial election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the governor of the U.S. state of Montana, concurrently with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Primary elections took place on June 4, 2024.[2] Incumbent Republican Governor Greg Gianforte won election to a second term, defeating Democratic nominee Ryan Busse. Gianforte won by a 20% margin, which was larger than his 13% margin in 2020.[3]

Quick facts Turnout, Nominee ...
2024 Montana gubernatorial election
← 2020
November 5, 2024
2028 →
Turnout76.57%Decrease4.76[1]
 
Nominee Greg Gianforte Ryan Busse
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Kristen Juras Raph Graybill
Popular vote 354,569 232,644
Percentage 58.86% 38.62%
Gianforte:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Busse:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
     No votes
Governor before election

Greg Gianforte
Republican

 Elected Governor

Greg Gianforte
Republican

Close

Though Montana has backed Republicans in every presidential election since 1996, the sparsely populated Mountain state maintained a Democratic tendency at the state and U.S. Senate levels well through the 2010s. This was the first gubernatorial election since 1996 that a Republican was re-elected governor of Montana. This was also the largest margin of victory in a gubernatorial election since Brian Schweitzer's 33-point re-election victory in 2008, and the largest for a Republican since Mark Racicot's aforementioned 58-point landslide re-election in 1996.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Endorsements

Greg Gianforte
Organizations

Results

Primary results by county:
  Gianforte
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
More information Party, Candidate ...
Republican primary results[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Greg Gianforte (incumbent)
Kristen Juras (incumbent) 		144,752 75.2%
Republican Tanner Smith
Randy Pinocci		 47,747 24.8%
Total votes 192,499 100.0%
Close

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

  • Shawn White Wolf, perennial candidate[14]

Results

Primary results by county
  Busse
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Hunt
  •   60–70%
  Tie
  •   50%
More information Party, Candidate ...
Democratic primary results[15]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Ryan Busse
Raph Graybill 		69,184 70.9%
Democratic Jim Hunt
Jerry Driscoll		 28,354 29.1%
Total votes 97,538 100.00%
Close

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Presumptive nominee

  • Kaiser Leib, software engineer[12]
    • Running mate: Matt Campbell, transportation engineer[13]

General election

Debate

More information Host, Date & Time ...
Host Date & Time Link(s) Participants
Ryan Busse (D) Greg Gianforte (R)
Nonstop Local October 16, 2024
6:00pm MDT		 [16] Present Present
Close

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[17] Solid R June 13, 2024
Inside Elections[18] Solid R July 14, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] Safe R June 4, 2024
RCP[20] Likely R July 13, 2024
Elections Daily[21] Safe R July 12, 2023
CNalysis[22] Solid R August 17, 2024
Close

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[a]		 Margin
of error		 Greg
Gianforte (R)		 Ryan
Busse (D)		 Other Undecided
Montana State University[23] September 30 – October 16, 2024 760 (A) ± 3.56% 50% 31% 5%[b] 14%
The New York Times/Siena College[24] October 5–8, 2024 656 (LV) ± 4.3% 57% 35% – 8%
656 (RV) 57% 35% – 9%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[25][A] September 29 – October 1, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.34% 55% 36% 1%[c] 7%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
David Binder Research (D)[26][B]		 August 25–29, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 54% 38% – 8%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[27][A] August 18–20, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.38% 53% 34% 4%[d] 8%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[27][A] June 11–13, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 54% 33% 5%[e] 8%
SurveyUSA[28][C] February 12–15, 2024 549 (LV) ± 4.5% 52% 30% – 18%
Close

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
2024 Montana gubernatorial election[29]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican
354,569 58.86% +4.43%
Democratic
232,644 38.62% −2.94%
Libertarian
  • Kaiser Leib
  • Matt Campbell
 15,191 2.52% −1.49%
Total votes 602,404 100.00% N/A
Turnout 612,423 76.57%
Registered electors 799,849
Republican hold
Close

By county

More information County, Greg Gianforte Republican ...
County[29] Greg Gianforte
Republican		 Ryan Busse
Democratic		 Kaiser Leib
Libertarian		 Margin Total
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
Beaverhead 4,139 71.72% 1,511 26.18% 121 2.10% 2,628 45.54% 5,771
Big Horn 2,206 49.56% 2,118 47.58% 127 2.85% 88 1.98% 4,451
Blaine 1,555 51.42% 1,387 45.87% 82 2.71% 168 5.56% 3,024
Broadwater 3,723 77.59% 930 19.38% 145 3.02% 2,793 58.21% 4,798
Carbon 4,812 65.46% 2,370 32.24% 169 2.30% 2,442 33.22% 7,351
Carter 774 91.60% 53 6.27% 18 2.13% 721 85.33% 845
Cascade 23,339 62.08% 13,324 35.44% 932 2.48% 10,015 26.64% 37,595
Chouteau 1,994 68.03% 888 30.30% 49 1.67% 1,106 37.73% 2,931
Custer 4,203 72.59% 1,417 24.47% 170 2.94% 2,786 48.12% 5,790
Daniels 787 83.10% 140 14.78% 20 2.11% 647 68.32% 947
Dawson 3,553 77.19% 926 20.12% 124 2.69% 2,627 57.07% 4,603
Deer Lodge 2,259 46.22% 2,487 50.88% 142 2.91% -228 -4.66% 4,888
Fallon 1,302 87.44% 158 10.61% 29 1.95% 1,144 76.83% 1,489
Fergus 4,945 73.79% 1,602 23.91% 154 2.30% 3,343 49.89% 6,701
Flathead 41,539 65.88% 20,064 31.82% 1,451 2.30% 21,475 34.06% 63,054
Gallatin 32,843 47.06% 35,200 50.44% 1,742 2.50% -2,357 -3.38% 69,785
Garfield 752 94.83% 34 4.29% 7 0.88% 718 90.54% 793
Glacier 1,955 38.37% 2,986 58.61% 154 3.02% -1,031 -20.24% 5,095
Golden Valley 440 84.94% 67 12.93% 11 2.12% 373 72.01% 518
Granite 1,507 69.58% 613 28.30% 46 2.12% 894 41.27% 2,166
Hill 3,910 57.65% 2,666 39.31% 206 3.04% 1,244 18.34% 6,782
Jefferson 5,507 66.17% 2,605 31.30% 211 2.54% 2,902 34.87% 8,323
Judith Basin 1,090 80.27% 234 17.23% 34 2.50% 856 63.03% 1,358
Lake 9,937 58.97% 6,485 38.49% 428 2.54% 3,452 20.49% 16,850
Lewis and Clark 21,678 51.49% 19,360 45.98% 1,065 2.53% 2,318 5.51% 42,103
Liberty 787 78.70% 204 20.40% 9 0.90% 583 58.30% 1,000
Lincoln 8,820 75.05% 2,634 22.41% 298 2.54% 6,186 52.64% 11,752
Madison 4,611 71.25% 1,726 26.67% 135 2.09% 2,885 44.58% 6,472
McCone 922 85.13% 142 13.11% 19 1.75% 780 72.02% 1,083
Meagher 894 76.67% 245 21.01% 27 2.32% 649 55.66% 1,166
Mineral 2,026 71.97% 708 25.15% 81 2.88% 1,318 46.82% 2,815
Missoula 27,670 38.00% 43,378 59.58% 1,762 2.42% -15,708 -21.57% 72,810
Musselshell 2,555 85.20% 369 12.30% 75 2.50% 2,186 72.89% 2,999
Park 5,947 50.72% 5,442 46.41% 336 2.87% 505 4.31% 11,725
Petroleum 287 86.97% 35 10.61% 8 2.42% 252 76.36% 330
Phillips 1,786 81.48% 368 16.79% 38 1.73% 1,418 64.69% 2,192
Pondera 2,054 72.07% 743 26.07% 53 1.86% 1,311 46.00% 2,850
Powder River 960 87.59% 123 11.22% 13 1.19% 837 76.37% 1,096
Powell 2,413 73.75% 735 22.46% 124 3.79% 1,678 51.28% 3,272
Prairie 540 78.49% 125 18.17% 23 3.34% 415 60.32% 688
Ravalli 20,740 69.60% 8,387 28.14% 673 2.26% 12,353 41.45% 29,800
Richland 4,324 82.72% 748 14.31% 155 2.97% 3,576 68.41% 5,227
Roosevelt 2,122 54.62% 1,656 42.63% 107 2.75% 466 11.99% 3,885
Rosebud 2,469 66.86% 1,129 30.57% 95 2.57% 1,340 36.28% 3,693
Sanders 6,088 75.68% 1,714 21.31% 242 3.01% 4,374 54.38% 8,044
Sheridan 1,365 72.30% 466 24.68% 57 3.02% 899 47.62% 1,888
Silver Bow 7,790 42.74% 9,866 54.13% 569 3.12% -2,076 -11.39% 18,225
Stillwater 4,709 79.58% 1,076 18.18% 132 2.23% 3,633 61.40% 5,917
Sweet Grass 1,805 75.78% 510 21.41% 67 2.81% 1,295 54.37% 2,382
Teton 2,612 73.00% 891 24.90% 75 2.10% 1,721 48.10% 3,578
Toole 1,632 80.08% 355 17.42% 51 2.50% 1,277 62.66% 2,038
Treasure 384 85.91% 47 10.51% 16 3.58% 337 75.39% 447
Valley 3,009 73.80% 961 23.57% 107 2.62% 2,048 50.23% 4,077
Wheatland 854 79.22% 203 18.83% 21 1.95% 651 60.39% 1,078
Wibaux 454 83.61% 77 14.18% 12 2.21% 377 69.43% 543
Yellowstone 51,191 62.95% 27,956 34.38% 2,174 2.67% 23,235 28.57% 81,321
Totals354,56958.86%232,64438.62%15,1912.52%121,92520.24%602,404
Close
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Gianforte won both congressional districts.[30]

More information District, Gianforte ...
District Gianforte Busse Representative
1st 54% 43% Ryan Zinke
2nd 64% 33% Matt Rosendale (118th Congress)
Troy Downing (119th Congress)
Close

See also

Notes

  1. [a]
    Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. [b]
    Kaiser Leib (L) with 5%
  3. [c]
    Kaiser Leib (L) with 1%
  4. [d]
    Kaiser Leib (L) with 4%
  5. [e]
    Kaiser Leib (L) with 5%

Partisan clients

  1. [A]
    Poll sponsored by the Montana Republican Party
  2. [B]
    Poll sponsored by AARP.
  3. [C]
    Poll sponsored by KULR-TV

References

External links

Related Articles

Wikiwand AI