2024 United States Senate election in Montana
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The 2024 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Montana. Republican businessman Tim Sheehy won his first term in office, defeating Democratic three-term incumbent Jon Tester.
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November 5, 2024
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| Turnout | 75.92% (of registered voters)[1]  4.39 | ||||||||||||||||
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Sheehy: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tester: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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Despite the state's heavy partisan lean in favor of the Republican Party, Tester remained popular among his constituents. Because of this and Montana's historical inclination to ticket-split, the race was considered to be competitive. Early polling showed Tester to be leading or nearly even, but Sheehy later gained an edge. Tester was widely seen as being the most vulnerable incumbent running for re-election, due to Montana's strong Republican lean and the decline of split-ticket voting.[2]
Tester, a renowned centrist liberal, was first elected in 2006, when he narrowly defeated incumbent Republican senator Conrad Burns, and was reelected in 2012 and 2018. However, come Election Day in 2024, his vulnerability came to fruition as he lost his bid for a fourth term to Tim Sheehy by around 7.1 percentage points. Sheehy received roughly 52.6% of the statewide vote to Tester's 45.5%. Despite his loss, Tester still vastly outperformed Kamala Harris, who lost the state to Donald Trump in the concurrent presidential race by just under 20 percentage points. Tester also carried six counties that Trump concurrently won: Big Horn, Blaine, Hill, Lewis and Clark (Helena), Roosevelt, and Park. Tester received over 44,000 more raw votes than Harris, while Sheehy received over 32,000 fewer raw votes than Trump.
Along with Bob Casey Jr. in Pennsylvania and Sherrod Brown in Ohio, Tester was one of three incumbent senators to lose re-election in 2024. All three were first elected in 2006, defeating Republican incumbents, and won re-election in 2012 and 2018. This race was one of two 2024 U.S. Senate races in which Democratic senators sought re-election in states where Republican Donald Trump won in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, the other being Ohio. With Sheehy's victory, Republicans held both of Montana's Senate seats for the first time since 1911.
Background
Montana has generally been considered a red state at the federal executive level, voting for Republican candidates in each presidential election starting in 1996, when Bob Dole beat Bill Clinton by nearly 3 percentage points in a three-way race with Ross Perot. Since then, GOP candidates have won the White House race in the state by double digits in every race except in 2008. In the most recent presidential election, in 2020, Donald Trump beat Joe Biden in Montana by 56.92% to 40.55%. Republicans have also won all of the state's U.S. House elections since 1996. Within this time frame, Democrats have been more successful in elections for state offices and the U.S. Senate, with its governorship, state legislature, and Senate seats alternating between Democratic and Republican control. Leading up to the 2024 election, Republicans controlled both of Montana's U.S. House seats, the other U.S. Senate seat, the governorship, and had supermajority control of both houses of the state legislature.[citation needed]
Tester refused to endorse fellow Democrat Kamala Harris for president, a contributing factor towards the Senate race having been considered less nationalized. In 2012, the last election that featured Tester on the same ballot as the presidential election, Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney won by 13.64%, while Tester won by 3.72% without receiving a majority (50%) of the vote.[3][4][5][6]
Top-two primary proposal
On April 4, 2023, Montana's State Senate passed a bill to institute a top-two primary system, but only for the 2024 U.S. Senate race. The bill's sponsor, Republican Greg Hertz, said it would require the winner of the 2024 Senate race to receive a majority of the vote. Incumbent Democrat Jon Tester won with a plurality of the vote in his 2006 and 2012 Senate campaigns, though he won a majority in 2018. Both Democrats and Libertarians alleged the bill was intended to prevent the Libertarian Party from placing a nominee on the general election ballot in the Senate race who could potentially pull votes away from the Republican nominee, with Democratic state senator Ryan Lynch calling it a "partisan power grab."[7][8]
After the bill received backlash, Hertz introduced an amendment to make the use of a top-two primary for U.S. Senate elections permanent rather than sunsetting it after the 2024 race.[9] The Montana House of Representatives State Administration Committee tabled the bill on April 19.[10] An attempt to revive the bill failed, and the legislature adjourned without passing it, conclusively ending the push for a top-two primary.[11]
Campaign
Tester
Senator Jon Tester made some moves to distance himself from the Joe Biden administration, but his voting record remained in line with the Democratic Party.[12] In July 2024, he called for Biden to withdraw from the 2024 United States presidential election.[13] In August, he announced that he would not endorse Kamala Harris for president.[14]
Hank Green, an American YouTuber, author, and educator known for his work on the educational series Crash Course, served as a moderator at an event for Tester in Missoula, Montana, in August 2024. He led a Q&A session alongside musician Jeff Ament, discussing local issues and encouraging voters to participate in the November election.[15][16]
Sheehy
Sheehy received $8 million from billionaire Stephen Schwarzman and at least 63 other billionaires and 37 of their immediate family members, who donated about $47 million to Sheehy’s Senate race.[17]
Recordings first reported by The Char-Koosta News in August 2024 of Tim Sheehy at a 2023 closed-door fundraiser led to accusations that he had racially stereotyped Montana's Crow people.[18] In one statement about how he ropes and brands cattle with Crow tribe members, he said it is "a great way to bond with all the Indians while they're drunk at 8 a.m." Sheehy said the tapes had been "chopped up".[19][20][21] Tribal leaders requested an apology, but Sheehy declined.[22][23]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Jon Tester, incumbent U.S. senator (2007–2025)[24]
Eliminated in primary
- Michael Hummert, retired remodeling contractor[25]
Endorsements
U.S. senators
- Joe Manchin, U.S. senator from West Virginia (2010–2025) (Independent; Democrat until 2024)[26]
Statewide officials
- Andy Beshear, governor of Kentucky (2019–present)[27]
- Bob Brown, former attorney general of Montana (2001–2005) (Republican)[28]
- Marc Racicot, former governor of Montana (1993–2001) and former chair of the Republican National Committee (2001–2003) (Republican)[29]
- Brian Schweitzer, former governor of Montana (2005–2013)[30]
Organizations
- American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC)[31]
- Council for a Livable World[32]
- Democratic Majority for Israel[33]
- End Citizens United[34]
- Feminist Majority Foundation PAC[35]
- Jewish Democratic Council of America[36]
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs[37]
- League of Conservation Voters[38]
- National Organization for Women PAC[39]
- Natural Resources Defense Council[40]
- Peace Action[41]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[42]
- Population Connection Action Fund[43]
- Reproductive Freedom for All[44]
- Swing Left[45]
Labor unions
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Jon Tester (D) | $37,330,566 | $26,017,759 | $11,793,381 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[51] | |||
Results
- 70–80%
- >90%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jon Tester (incumbent) | 104,279 | 96.96% | |
| Democratic | Michael Hummert | 3,272 | 3.04% | |
| Total votes | 107,551 | 100.00% | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Tim Sheehy, founder and former CEO of Bridger Aerospace[53]
Eliminated in primary
- Brad Johnson, former chair of the Montana Public Service Commission (2015–2023) and former Montana Secretary of State (2005–2009)[54]
- Charles Walkingchild Sr., environmental contractor and candidate for Montana's 2nd congressional district in 2022[25]
Withdrew
- Jeremy Mygland, construction company owner (endorsed Rosendale, ran for state senate)[55]
- Matt Rosendale, U.S. representative from Montana's 2nd congressional district (2023–2025) and at-large district (2021–2023); nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018 (endorsed Sheehy)[56]
Declined
- Greg Gianforte, governor of Montana (2021–present) (endorsed Sheehy, ran for re-election)[57]
- Ryan Zinke, U.S. representative from Montana's 1st congressional district (2023–present) and at-large district (2015–2017); former U.S. secretary of the interior (2017–2019) (endorsed Sheehy, ran for re-election)[58][59]
Endorsements
Executive branch officials
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)[60]
U.S. senators
- John Barrasso, U.S. senator from Wyoming (2007–present)[61]
- Marsha Blackburn, U.S. senator from Tennessee (2019–present)[62]
- Ted Budd, U.S. senator from North Carolina (2023–present)[63]
- Tom Cotton, U.S. senator from Arkansas (2015–present)[64]
- Steve Daines, U.S. senator from Montana (2015–present)[65]
- Bill Hagerty, U.S. senator from Tennessee (2021–present)[66]
- Cindy Hyde-Smith, U.S. senator from Mississippi (2018–present)[66]
- Markwayne Mullin, U.S. senator from Oklahoma (2023–present)[67]
- Marco Rubio, U.S. senator from Florida (2011–2025)[63]
- John Thune, U.S. senator from South Dakota (2005–present)[68]
- Tommy Tuberville, U.S. senator from Alabama (2021–present)[69]
Governors
- Doug Burgum, governor of North Dakota (2016–2024)[70]
- Greg Gianforte, governor of Montana (2021–present)[57]
- Kristi Noem, governor of South Dakota (2019–2025)[71]
U.S. representatives
- Newt Gingrich, former speaker of the United States House of Representatives (1995−1999) from Georgia's 6th congressional district (1979−1999)[72]
- Marjorie Taylor Greene, U.S. representative from Georgia's 14th congressional district (2021−2026)[73]
- Matt Rosendale, U.S. representative from Montana's 2nd congressional district (2021−2025)[74]
- Ryan Zinke, U.S. representative from Montana's 1st congressional district (2023–present) and at-large district (2015–2017); former U.S. secretary of the interior (2017–2019)[58]
Organizations
U.S. senators
- Mike Lee, U.S. senator from Utah (2011–present)[81]
U.S. representatives
- Matt Gaetz, U.S. representative from Florida's 1st congressional district (2017–2024)[82]
State legislators
- Jason Ellsworth, president of the Montana Senate (2023−2025) from the 43rd district (2019–present)[83]
- Matt Regier, speaker of the Montana House of Representatives (2023–2025) from the 4th district (2017–2025)[83]
Individuals
- Steve Bannon, former White House chief strategist (2017) and former executive chair of Breitbart News[82]
Organizations
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Brad Johnson (R) | $42,967[a] | $39,697 | $3,270 |
| Tim Sheehy (R) | $10,547,437[b] | $8,324,164 | $2,223,272 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[51] | |||
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Brad Johnson |
Matt Rosendale |
Tim Sheehy |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient (R)[85] | November 12–14, 2023 | 888 (LV) | ± 3.3% | – | 24% | 40% | 36% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[86] | October 23–25, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 6% | 35% | 38% | 21%[d] |
| 0% | 41% | 44% | 15% | ||||
| J.L. Partners[87] | August 12–17, 2023 | 418 (LV) | – | – | 52% | 21% | 28% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[88] | June 19–20, 2023 | 510 (LV) | ± 4.3% | – | 64% | 10% | 26% |
Results
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Tim Sheehy | 139,857 | 73.60% | |
| Republican | Brad Johnson | 36,926 | 19.43% | |
| Republican | Charles Walkingchild Sr. | 13,229 | 6.96% | |
| Total votes | 190,012 | 100.00% | ||
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Sid Daoud, Kalispell city councilor and chair of the Montana Libertarian Party[90]
Green primary
Candidates
Withdrew after nomination
- Michael Downey, drought program coordinator[25]
Replacement nominee
Results
Aftermath
Michael Downey, the winner of the Green Party primary election, dropped out of the race on August 12, citing the possibility that he might be a spoiler candidate in a close race.[92] The Green Party of Montana selected the runner-up, Robert Barb, to replace Downey. The Montana Democratic Party filed a lawsuit asking for Barb to be removed from the ballot because of allegations that the Montana Green Party did not follow its procedure for designating a replacement candidate.[93] Kathy Seeley, the district court judge hearing the case, denied the request. The Montana Democratic Party appealed to the Montana Supreme Court, but the justices refused to hear the case, leaving Barb on the ballot.[94]
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[95] | Lean R (flip) | September 12, 2024 |
| Inside Elections[96] | Tilt R (flip) | September 12, 2024 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[97] | Lean R (flip) | September 6, 2024 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[98] | Likely R (flip) | October 20, 2024 |
| Elections Daily[99] | Lean R (flip) | August 9, 2024 |
| CNalysis[100] | Tilt R (flip) | November 4, 2024 |
| RealClearPolitics[101] | Lean R (flip) | September 12, 2024 |
| Split Ticket[102] | Lean R (flip) | October 23, 2024 |
Post-primary endorsements
Statewide officials
- Bob Brown, former secretary of state of Montana (2001–2005) (Republican)[103]
- Marc Racicot, former governor of Montana (1993–2001) (Republican)[103]
- Gretchen Whitmer, governor of Michigan (2019–present)[104]
State senators
- Terry Vermeire, state senator from the 39th district (2023–present) (Republican)[105]
State representatives
- Mallerie Stromswold, former state representative from the 50th district (2021–2023) (Republican)[105]
- Dan Hurwitz, former state representative from the 83rd district (2003–2005) (Republican)[105]
Individuals
- Harry Dunn, former U.S. Capitol Police officer[106]
Organizations
U.S. representatives
- Tulsi Gabbard, U.S. representative from Hawaii's 2nd congressional district (2013–2021)[108]
U.S. senators
- John Thune, Senate minority whip (2021–2025) from South Dakota (2005–present)[109]
Statewide officials
Individuals
- Charlie Kirk, founder of Turning Point USA[111]
- Ben Shapiro, editor emeritus of The Daily Wire[112]
Organizations
Fundraising
In October 2024, total spending for both sides (including both campaign spending and Independent expenditures), was on track to exceed $315 million. With Montana having only 648,000 active registered voters, the amount spent averaged $487 per voter, making the race the most expensive congressional campaign in U.S. history on a per voter basis. Democrats outspent Republicans by $50 million. Most of the money came from out-of-state dark money groups.[114]
| Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Jon Tester (D) | $88,163,151 | $84,499,372 | $4,144,352 |
| Tim Sheehy (R) | $26,161,679[f] | $22,284,629 | $3,877,050 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[51] | |||
Debates
Polling
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Tim Sheehy (R) |
Jon Tester (D) |
Undecided [g] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics[115] | October 5 – November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 50.7% | 43.0% | 6.3% | Sheehy +7.7% |
| 538[116] | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 49.7% | 42.7% | 7.6% | Sheehy +7.0% |
| 270toWin[117] | October 10–27, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 51.0% | 45.0% | 4.0% | Sheehy +6.0% |
| TheHill/DDHQ[118] | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 50.0% | 43.1% | 6.9% | Sheehy +6.9% |
| Average | 50.4% | 43.5% | 6.1% | Sheehy +6.9% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Jon Tester (D) |
Tim Sheehy (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel[119] | November 3–4, 2024 | 752 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 50% | 5%[h] | 6% |
| Emerson College[120][A] | October 23–25, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 51% | 2%[i] | – |
| 46% | 50% | 2%[i] | 3% | ||||
| MSU Billings[121] | September 30 – October 16, 2024 | 760 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 43% | 43% | 6%[j] | 8% |
| New York Times/Siena College[122] | October 5–8, 2024 | 656 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 44% | 52% | – | 4% |
| 656 (RV) | 44% | 51% | – | 4% | |||
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[123][B] | September 29 – October 1, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 45% | 51% | 2%[k] | 2% |
| Remington Research Group (R)[124][C] | September 16–20, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 52% | – | 4% |
| RMG Research[125][D] | September 12–19, 2024 | 491 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 50% | 2% | 4% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ David Binder Research (D)[126][E] |
August 25–29, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 51% | – | 4% |
| 41% | 49% | 5%[l] | 5% | ||||
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[127][B] | August 18–20, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 51% | 3%[m] | 2% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[128][F] | August 13–20, 2024 | 835 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 50% | – | 7% |
| RMG Research[129][D] | August 6–14, 2024 | 540 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 49% | 44% | 2% | 4% |
| American Pulse Research & Polling[130][G] | August 10–12, 2024 | 538 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 45% | 51% | – | 4% |
| Emerson College[131][A] | August 5–6, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 48% | – | 5% |
| Expedition Strategies[132][H] | June 24 – July 8, 2024 | 251 (LV) | – | 47% | 48% | – | 4% |
| Remington Research Group (R)[133][C] | June 29 – July 1, 2024 | 570 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 50% | – | 5% |
| Torchlight Strategies (R)[134][I] | June 22–26, 2024 | 649 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 41% | 47% | 5%[m] | 7% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[135][B] | June 11–13, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 46% | 4%[n] | 4% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[136][J] | June 3–5, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 48% | – | 4% |
| 43% | 46% | 4%[o] | 7% | ||||
| J.L. Partners[138] | March 26–29, 2024 | 503 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 45% | 48% | – | 7% |
| Emerson College[139][A] | February 26 – March 2, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 42% | – | 14% |
| SurveyUSA[140][K] | February 12–15, 2024 | 549 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 49% | 40% | 3% | 7% |
| Emerson College[141] | October 1–4, 2023 | 447 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 39% | 35% | 6% | 21% |
| J.L. Partners[142] | August 12–17, 2023 | 741 (LV) | – | 42% | 46% | – | 12% |
Jon Tester vs. Greg Gianforte
Jon Tester vs. Brad Johnson
Jon Tester vs. Matt Rosendale
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Jon Tester (D) |
Matt Rosendale (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA[140][K] | February 12–15, 2024 | 549 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 49% | 40% | 4% | 7% |
| J.L. Partners[142] | August 12–17, 2023 | 741 (LV) | – | 43% | 46% | – | 11% |
| OnMessage Inc. (R)[89] | February 18–21, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 46% | 5% | 7% |
| Political Company (R)[143] | January 30 – February 1, 2023 | 534 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 40% | – | 15% |
Jon Tester vs. Ryan Zinke
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Tim Sheehy | 319,682 | 52.64% | +5.86% | |
| Democratic | Jon Tester (incumbent) | 276,305 | 45.50% | −4.83% | |
| Libertarian | Sid Daoud | 7,272 | 1.20% | −1.68% | |
| Green | Robert Barb | 4,003 | 0.66% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 607,262 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican gain from Democratic | |||||
By county
| County[144] | Jon Tester Democratic |
Tim Sheehy Republican |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total
votes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Beaverhead | 2,024 | 34.65% | 3,707 | 63.47% | 110 | 1.88% | 1,683 | 28.81% | 5,841 |
| Big Horn | 2,805 | 62.99% | 1,580 | 35.48% | 68 | 1.53% | –1,225 | –27.51% | 4,453 |
| Blaine | 1,814 | 59.34% | 1,192 | 38.99% | 51 | 1.67% | –622 | –20.35% | 3,057 |
| Broadwater | 1,219 | 25.18% | 3,503 | 72.35% | 120 | 2.48% | 2,284 | 47.17% | 4,842 |
| Carbon | 2,794 | 37.82% | 4,459 | 60.35% | 135 | 1.83% | 1,665 | 22.54% | 7,388 |
| Carter | 109 | 12.76% | 732 | 85.71% | 13 | 1.52% | 623 | 72.95% | 854 |
| Cascade | 17,323 | 45.73% | 19,808 | 52.30% | 746 | 1.97% | 2,485 | 6.56% | 37,877 |
| Chouteau | 1,274 | 43.03% | 1,643 | 55.49% | 44 | 1.49% | 369 | 12.46% | 2,961 |
| Custer | 1,855 | 31.87% | 3,818 | 65.60% | 147 | 2.53% | 1,963 | 33.73% | 5,820 |
| Daniels | 220 | 23.06% | 719 | 75.37% | 15 | 1.57% | 499 | 52.31% | 954 |
| Dawson | 1,259 | 27.06% | 3,269 | 70.26% | 125 | 2.69% | 2,010 | 43.20% | 4,653 |
| Deer Lodge | 2,991 | 60.92% | 1,820 | 37.07% | 99 | 2.02% | –1,171 | –23.85% | 4,910 |
| Fallon | 256 | 17.12% | 1,200 | 80.27% | 39 | 2.61% | 944 | 63.14% | 1,495 |
| Fergus | 1,910 | 28.24% | 4,749 | 70.22% | 104 | 1.54% | 2,839 | 41.98% | 6,763 |
| Flathead | 23,647 | 37.21% | 38,582 | 60.72% | 1,313 | 2.07% | 14,936 | 23.51% | 63,542 |
| Gallatin | 39,094 | 55.41% | 30,537 | 43.28% | 924 | 1.31% | –8,557 | –12.13% | 70,555 |
| Garfield | 68 | 8.54% | 720 | 90.45% | 8 | 1.01% | 652 | 81.91% | 796 |
| Glacier | 3,638 | 70.86% | 1,426 | 27.78% | 70 | 1.36% | –2,212 | –43.09% | 5,134 |
| Golden Valley | 91 | 17.50% | 422 | 81.15% | 7 | 1.35% | 331 | 63.65% | 520 |
| Granite | 778 | 35.61% | 1,377 | 63.02% | 30 | 1.37% | 599 | 27.41% | 2,185 |
| Hill | 3,438 | 50.32% | 3,217 | 47.09% | 177 | 2.59% | –221 | –3.23% | 6,832 |
| Jefferson | 3,099 | 37.10% | 5,108 | 61.15% | 146 | 1.75% | 2,009 | 24.05% | 8,353 |
| Judith Basin | 352 | 25.88% | 991 | 72.87% | 17 | 1.25% | 639 | 46.99% | 1,360 |
| Lake | 7,798 | 45.89% | 8,881 | 52.26% | 314 | 1.85% | 1,083 | 6.37% | 16,993 |
| Lewis and Clark | 22,175 | 52.31% | 19,367 | 45.69% | 847 | 2.00% | –2,808 | –6.62% | 42,389 |
| Liberty | 307 | 30.64% | 683 | 68.16% | 12 | 1.20% | 376 | 37.52% | 1,002 |
| Lincoln | 3,287 | 27.81% | 8,291 | 70.15% | 241 | 2.04% | 5,004 | 42.34% | 11,819 |
| Madison | 2,025 | 31.09% | 4,388 | 67.36% | 101 | 1.55% | 2,363 | 36.28% | 6,514 |
| McCone | 173 | 15.94% | 890 | 82.03% | 22 | 2.03% | 717 | 66.08% | 1,085 |
| Meagher | 309 | 26.19% | 845 | 71.61% | 26 | 2.20% | 536 | 45.42% | 1,180 |
| Mineral | 950 | 33.35% | 1,831 | 64.27% | 68 | 2.39% | 881 | 30.92% | 2,849 |
| Missoula | 48,429 | 66.00% | 23,743 | 32.36% | 1,200 | 1.64% | –24,686 | –33.64% | 73,372 |
| Musselshell | 536 | 17.84% | 2,408 | 80.13% | 61 | 2.03% | 1,872 | 62.30% | 3,005 |
| Park | 6,009 | 50.85% | 5,614 | 47.51% | 193 | 1.63% | –395 | –3.34% | 11,816 |
| Petroleum | 50 | 15.24% | 274 | 83.54% | 4 | 1.22% | 224 | 68.29% | 328 |
| Phillips | 490 | 22.27% | 1,678 | 76.27% | 32 | 1.45% | 1,188 | 54.00% | 2,200 |
| Pondera | 1,017 | 35.48% | 1,804 | 62.94% | 45 | 1.57% | 787 | 27.46% | 2,866 |
| Powder River | 205 | 18.47% | 886 | 79.82% | 19 | 1.71% | 681 | 61.35% | 1,110 |
| Powell | 1,065 | 32.26% | 2,160 | 65.43% | 76 | 2.30% | 1,095 | 33.17% | 3,301 |
| Prairie | 180 | 25.97% | 489 | 70.56% | 24 | 3.46% | 309 | 44.59% | 693 |
| Ravalli | 10,449 | 34.78% | 19,116 | 63.62% | 482 | 1.60% | 8,667 | 28.84% | 30,047 |
| Richland | 1,238 | 23.36% | 3,914 | 73.85% | 148 | 2.79% | 2,676 | 50.49% | 5,300 |
| Roosevelt | 2,249 | 56.82% | 1,636 | 41.33% | 73 | 1.84% | –613 | –15.49% | 3,958 |
| Rosebud | 1,435 | 38.53% | 2,208 | 59.29% | 81 | 2.18% | 773 | 20.76% | 3,724 |
| Sanders | 2,241 | 27.65% | 5,663 | 69.86% | 202 | 2.49% | 3,422 | 42.22% | 8,106 |
| Sheridan | 685 | 36.11% | 1,159 | 61.10% | 53 | 2.79% | 474 | 24.99% | 1,897 |
| Silver Bow | 11,854 | 64.36% | 6,232 | 33.84% | 332 | 1.80% | –5,622 | –30.52% | 18,418 |
| Stillwater | 1,352 | 22.79% | 4,473 | 75.40% | 107 | 1.80% | 3,121 | 52.61% | 5,932 |
| Sweet Grass | 665 | 27.69% | 1,685 | 70.15% | 52 | 2.16% | 1,020 | 42.46% | 2,402 |
| Teton | 1,216 | 33.72% | 2,323 | 64.42% | 67 | 1.86% | 1,107 | 30.70% | 3,606 |
| Toole | 558 | 27.30% | 1,436 | 70.25% | 50 | 2.45% | 878 | 42.95% | 2,044 |
| Treasure | 101 | 22.60% | 336 | 75.17% | 10 | 2.24% | 235 | 52.57% | 447 |
| Valley | 1,307 | 31.93% | 2,672 | 65.28% | 114 | 2.79% | 1,365 | 33.35% | 4,093 |
| Wheatland | 278 | 25.60% | 792 | 72.93% | 16 | 1.47% | 514 | 47.33% | 1,086 |
| Wibaux | 121 | 22.00% | 414 | 75.27% | 15 | 2.73% | 293 | 53.27% | 550 |
| Yellowstone | 33,493 | 40.85% | 46,812 | 57.10% | 1,680 | 2.05% | 13,319 | 16.25% | 81,985 |
| Totals | 276,305 | 45.50% | 319,682 | 52.64% | 11,275 | 1.86% | 43,377 | 7.14% | 607,262 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Cascade (largest city: Great Falls)
- Lake (largest city: Polson)
By congressional district
Sheehy and Tester each won one of two congressional districts, with Tester narrowly winning the 1st district, which elected a Republican representative.[145]
| District | Tester | Sheehy | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 49.51% | 48.77% | Ryan Zinke |
| 2nd | 40.90% | 57.08% | Matt Rosendale (118th Congress) |
| Troy Downing (119th Congress) |
See also
Notes
- $30,000 of this total was self-funded by Johnson
- $2,050,000 of this total was self-funded by Sheehy
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Jeremy Mygland with 1%
- Oversample of 100 likely Republican primary voters
- $2,450,000 of this total was self-funded by Sheehy
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 4%; "Other" with 1%
- Daoud (L) with 1%; Barb (G) with 1%
- Daoud (L) with 4%; Barb (G) with 2%
- Sid Daoud (L) with 1%
- Sid Daoud (L) with 4%; Michael Downey with 1%
- Sid Daoud (L) with 2%; Michael Downey (G) with 1%
- Sid Daoud (L) with 2%; Michael Downey (G) with 2%
- Sid Daoud (L) with 4%
Partisan clients
- Poll sponsored by the Montana Republican Party
- Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republicans.
- Poll commissioned by the Napolitan Institute
- Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA, a conservative group
- Poll Sponsored by Progressive Policy Institute
- Poll commissioned by Common Sense for America PAC, which supports Republican candidates
- Poll sponsored by More Jobs, Less Government, a super PAC "with ties to" U.S. Senator Steve Daines, who is supporting Sheehy.[137]