2024 United States Senate election in New York
Kirsten Gillibrand defeats Mike Sacriapone
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2024 United States Senate election in New York was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of New York. Democratic incumbent Kirsten Gillibrand was re-elected to a third full term, defeating Republican businessman Mike Sapraicone. Primary elections took place on June 25, 2024.[1]
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November 5, 2024
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  Gillibrand: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Sapraicone: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Gillibrand's victory was significantly closer than her previous two, and followed Chuck Schumer's narrower victory in 2022. This was the state's second consecutive Senate election in which the Republican garnered over 40% of the vote.
Gillibrand received around 90,000 more votes than Kamala Harris, while Sapraicone received around 330,000 fewer votes than Donald Trump.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Kirsten Gillibrand, incumbent U.S. senator[2]
Disqualified
- Khaled Salem, nonprofit executive[3]
Declined
- Jamaal Bowman, U.S. representative from New York's 16th congressional district (2021–2025)[4] (unsuccessfully ran for re-election)[5]
- Al Franken, former U.S. senator from Minnesota (2009–2018)[6]
- Mondaire Jones, member of the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights (2023–present) and former U.S. representative from New York's 17th congressional district (2021–2023)[4] (ran for U.S. House)[7]
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, U.S. representative from New York's 14th congressional district (2019–present) (ran for re-election)[4]
- Ritchie Torres, U.S. representative from New York's 15th congressional district (2021–present) (ran for re-election)[8]
Endorsements
Kirsten Gillibrand
- Individuals
- Stuart Appelbaum, president of the Jewish Labor Committee (1998–present) and board member of the National Endowment for Democracy (2022–present)[9]
- Labor unions
- District Council 37[10]
- New York State AFL–CIO[11]
- New York State Nurses Association[12]
- Retail, Wholesale and Department Store Union[9]
- Organizations
- American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC)[13]
- Democratic Majority for Israel[14]
- EMILY's List[15]
- End Citizens United[16]
- Feminist Majority PAC[17]
- Giffords[18]
- Humane Society Legislative Fund[19]
- Jewish Democratic Council of America[20]
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs[21]
- League of Conservation Voters[22]
- Natural Resources Defense Council[23]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[24]
- Population Connection Action Fund[25]
- Stonewall Democratic Club of New York City[26]
- Vote Mama[27]
- Political parties
Polling
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of June 5, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Kirsten Gillibrand (D) | $13,181,513 | $13,105,874 | $10,391,040 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[30] | |||
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
Disqualified
- David Bellon, attorney[3]
- Cara Castronuova, Newsmax reporter and former professional boxer[3]
- Josh Eisen, businessman[3]
Endorsements
Mike Sapraicone
- Executive branch officials
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)[32]
- Governors
- Greg Abbott, governor of Texas (2015–present)[33]
- U.S. representatives
- Anthony D'Esposito, U.S. representative NY-04[33]
- Nick LaLota, U.S. representative NY-01[33]
- Mike Lawler, U.S. representative NY-17[33]
- Party chapters
- Nassau County Republican Party[34]
- Queens Republican Party[34]
- Suffolk County Republican Party[34]
- Westchester County Republican Party[34]
Cara Castronuova (disqualified)
- U.S. representatives
- George Santos, former U.S. representative for New York's 3rd congressional district (Independent)[34]
- Local officials
- Individuals
- Roger Stone, former advisor to Donald Trump[34]
- Party chapters
Josh Eisen (disqualified)
- Statewide officials
- Organizations
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of June 5, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Mike Sapraicone (R) | $738,958 | $494,680 | $244,277 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[30] | |||
Independents
Candidates
Declared
- Diane Sare, political organizer and perennial candidate[37]
Endorsements
Diane Sare
- Organizations
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of June 5, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Diane Sare (I) | $331,307 | $331,025 | $6,726 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[30] | |||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[39] | Solid D | November 9, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[40] | Solid D | November 9, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[41] | Safe D | November 9, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[42] | Safe D | June 8, 2024 |
| Elections Daily[43] | Safe D | May 4, 2023 |
| CNalysis[44] | Solid D | November 21, 2023 |
| RealClearPolitics[45] | Solid D | August 5, 2024 |
| Split Ticket[46] | Safe D | October 23, 2024 |
| 538[47] | Solid D | October 23, 2024 |
Endorsments
Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
- Individuals
- Stuart Appelbaum, president of the Jewish Labor Committee (1998–present) and board member of the National Endowment for Democracy (2022–present)[9]
- Labor unions
- District Council 37[10]
- New York State AFL–CIO[11]
- New York State Nurses Association[12]
- Retail, Wholesale and Department Store Union[9]
- Organizations
- American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC)[13]
- Democratic Majority for Israel[14]
- EMILY's List[15]
- End Citizens United[16]
- Feminist Majority PAC[17]
- Giffords[18]
- Humane Society Legislative Fund[19]
- Jewish Democratic Council of America[20]
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs[21]
- League of Conservation Voters[22]
- Natural Resources Defense Council[23]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[24]
- Population Connection Action Fund[25]
- Stonewall Democratic Club of New York City[26]
- Vote Mama[27]
- Political parties
Mike Sapraicone (R)
- Executive branch officials
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)[32]
- Governors
- Greg Abbott, governor of Texas (2015–present)[33]
- U.S. representatives
- Nick LaLota, U.S. representative NY-01[33]
- Anthony D'Esposito, U.S. representative NY-04[33]
- Mike Lawler, U.S. representative NY-17[33]
- Party chapters
- Nassau County Republican Party[34]
- Queens Republican Party[34]
- Suffolk County Republican Party[34]
- Westchester County Republican Party[34]
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Kirsten Gillibrand (D) | $15,120,750 | $23,896,091 | $1,540,060 |
| Michael Sapraicone (R) | $1,110,275[b] | $771,871 | $338,403 |
| Diane Sare (I) | $457,732[c] | $455,244 | $8,933 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[30] | |||
Polling
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kirsten Gillibrand (D) |
Mike Sapraicone (R) |
Undecided [d] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 538[48] | through November 3, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 57.2% | 33.9% | 8.9% | Gillibrand +23.2% |
| RealClearPolitics[49] | September 23 – October 27, 2024 | October 29, 2024 | 55.0% | 34.3% | 10.7% | Gillibrand +20.7% |
| 270ToWin[50] | September 30 - November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 55.8% | 32.8% | 11.4% | Gillibrand +23.0% |
| TheHill/DDHQ[51] | through November 3, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 58.9% | 34.8% | 6.3% | Gillibrand +24.1% |
| Average | 56.7% | 34.0% | 9.3% | Gillibrand +22.7% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kirsten Gillibrand (D) |
Mike Sapraicone (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co.[52] | November 2–3, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 61% | 33% | 2%[e] | 4% |
| ActiVote[53] | October 4–28, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 60% | 40% | – | – |
| Cygnal (R)[54] | October 26–27, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 58% | 39% | 1%[f] | 2% |
| Siena College[55] | October 13–17, 2024 | 872 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 57% | 31% | 2%[g] | 9% |
| YouGov[56][B] | October 7–17, 2024 | 1,089 (RV) | ± 3.41% | 57% | 32% | – | 11% |
| Emerson College[57][C] | September 23–25, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 33% | 1%[h] | 15% |
| ActiVote[58] | August 24 – September 25, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 60% | 40% | – | – |
| Siena College[59] | September 11–16, 2024 | 1,003 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 54% | 31% | 3%[i] | 13% |
| ActiVote[60] | July 8 – August 5, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 63% | 37% | – | – |
| Siena College[61] | July 28 – August 1, 2024 | 1,199 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 56% | 33% | 1%[j] | 10% |
Hypothetical polling
Kirsten Gillibrand vs. generic opponent
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kirsten Gillibrand (D) |
Generic opponent |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College[62] | June 12–13 & 16–17, 2024 | 805 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 42% | 42% | 16% |
| Siena College[63] | May 13–15, 2024 | 1,191 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 39% | 41% | 20% |
| Siena College[64] | April 15–17, 2024 | 806 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 42% | 39% | 19% |
| Siena College[65] | February 12–14, 2024 | 806 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 39% | 37% | 23% |
| Siena College[65] | January 14–17, 2024 | 807 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 43% | 38% | 19% |
| Siena College[66] | November 12–15, 2023 | 893 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| Siena College[67] | October 15–19, 2023 | 1,225 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 39% | 38% | 23% |
| Siena College[68] | September 10–13, 2023 | 804 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 41% | 37% | 22% |
| Siena College[69] | August 13–16, 2023 | 803 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 40% | 41% | 19% |
| Siena College[70] | June 20–25, 2023 | 817 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 40% | 40% | 20% |
| Siena College[71] | May 7–11, 2023 | 810 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 43% | 38% | 19% |
| Siena College[72] | March 19–22, 2023 | 802 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 43% | 38% | 19% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Kirsten Gillibrand | 4,318,903 | 53.91% | −8.07% | |
| Working Families | Kirsten Gillibrand | 392,395 | 4.89% | +2.25% | |
| Total | Kirsten Gillibrand (incumbent) | 4,711,298 | 58.82% | –8.14% | |
| Republican | Mike Sapraicone | 2,917,044 | 36.42% | +7.86% | |
| Conservative | Mike Sapraicone | 329,070 | 4.11% | +0.05% | |
| Total | Mike Sapraicone | 3,246,114 | 40.52% | +7.54% | |
| LaRouche | Diane Sare | 39,413 | 0.49% | N/A | |
| Write ins | Write ins | 13,492 | 0.17% | ||
| Total votes | 8,010,317 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
By county
| County[74] | Kirsten Gillibrand Democratic |
Michael Sapraicone Republican |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Albany | 95,231 | 65.3% | 49,505 | 34.0% | 1,034 | 0.8% | 45,726 | 29.3% | 145,770 |
| Allegany | 5,862 | 30.8% | 13,066 | 68.7% | 91 | 0.5% | -7,204 | -27.9% | 19,019 |
| Bronx | 260,993 | 75.7% | 80,569 | 23.4% | 3,269 | 0.9% | 180,424 | 52.3% | 344,831 |
| Broome | 47,049 | 53.5% | 40,357 | 45.9% | 574 | 0.6% | 6,692 | 7.6% | 87,980 |
| Cattaraugus | 12,172 | 36.8% | 20,775 | 62.8% | 140 | 0.4% | -8,603 | -26.0% | 33,087 |
| Cayuga | 16,352 | 46.1% | 18,973 | 53.4% | 173 | 0.5% | -2,621 | -7.3% | 35,498 |
| Chautauqua | 23,438 | 42.4% | 31,622 | 57.2% | 217 | 0.3% | -8,184 | -14.8% | 55,277 |
| Chemung | 15,835 | 43.4% | 20,478 | 56.1% | 161 | 0.4% | -4,643 | -12.7% | 36,474 |
| Chenango | 8,653 | 39.7% | 13,050 | 59.8% | 117 | 0.6% | -4,397 | -20.1% | 21,820 |
| Clinton | 18,614 | 53.4% | 16,109 | 46.2% | 160 | 0.4% | 2,505 | 7.2% | 34,883 |
| Columbia | 21,345 | 60.2% | 13,890 | 39.2% | 128 | 0.6% | 7,455 | 21.0% | 35,463 |
| Cortland | 10,469 | 48.6% | 10,941 | 50.8% | 136 | 0.7% | -472 | -2.2% | 21,546 |
| Delaware | 9,852 | 43.6% | 12,620 | 55.8% | 128 | 0.6% | -2,768 | -13.2% | 22,600 |
| Dutchess | 82,986 | 55.5% | 65,871 | 44.0% | 742 | 0.5% | 17,115 | 11.5% | 149,599 |
| Erie | 252,782 | 57.1% | 187,547 | 42.4% | 2,495 | 0.5% | 62,235 | 14.7% | 442,824 |
| Essex | 10,032 | 54.4% | 8,351 | 45.3% | 68 | 0.4% | 1,681 | 9.1% | 18,451 |
| Franklin | 9,357 | 49.5% | 9,481 | 50.1% | 70 | 0.3% | -124 | -0.6% | 18,451 |
| Fulton | 8,291 | 36.3% | 14,449 | 63.3% | 97 | 0.5% | -6,158 | -27.0% | 22,837 |
| Genesee | 9,736 | 35.1% | 17,871 | 64.4% | 126 | 0.4% | -8,135 | -29.3% | 27,733 |
| Greene | 11,133 | 45.1% | 13,435 | 54.4% | 144 | 0.6% | -2,302 | -9.3% | 24,712 |
| Hamilton | 1,283 | 38.3% | 2,053 | 61.3% | 13 | 0.4% | -770 | -23.0% | 3,349 |
| Herkimer | 9,671 | 35.1% | 17,766 | 64.5% | 122 | 0.4% | -8,095 | -29.4% | 27,559 |
| Jefferson | 17,511 | 42.6% | 23,477 | 57.1% | 150 | 0.4% | -5,966 | -14.5% | 41,138 |
| Kings | 194,631 | 74.9% | 68,071 | 24.0% | 9,076 | 1.1% | 413,440 | 50.9% | 811,778 |
| Lewis | 4,163 | 33.8% | 8,099 | 65.7% | 63 | 0.5% | -3,936 | -31.9% | 12,325 |
| Livingston | 12,830 | 42.3% | 17,370 | 57.2% | 144 | 0.5% | -4,540 | -14.9% | 30,344 |
| Madison | 15,138 | 45.8% | 17,727 | 53.6% | 192 | 0.6% | -2,589 | -7.8% | 33,057 |
| Monroe | 213,432 | 59.9% | 140,764 | 39.5% | 1,854 | 0.6% | 72,668 | 20.4% | 356,050 |
| Montgomery | 8,263 | 41.9% | 11,383 | 57.7% | 93 | 0.5% | -3,120 | -15.8% | 19,739 |
| Nassau | 344,787 | 49.7% | 345,325 | 49.8% | 3,298 | 0.5% | -538 | -0.1% | 693,410 |
| New York | 525,316 | 82.3% | 107,064 | 16.8% | 5,714 | 0.9% | 418,252 | 65.5% | 628,094 |
| Niagara | 44,641 | 45.1% | 53,851 | 54.4% | 462 | 0.5% | -9,210 | -9.3% | 98,954 |
| Oneida | 41,860 | 43.4% | 54,056 | 56.1% | 474 | 0.4% | -12,196 | -12.7% | 96,390 |
| Onondaga | 134,707 | 60.0% | 88,547 | 39.4% | 1,282 | 0.6% | 46,160 | 20.6% | 224,536 |
| Ontario | 29,924 | 50.6% | 28,924 | 48.9% | 248 | 0.5% | 1000 | 1.7% | 59,096 |
| Orange | 89,114 | 52.9% | 78,309 | 46.5% | 887 | 0.6% | 10,805 | 6.4% | 168,310 |
| Orleans | 5,480 | 32.0% | 11,568 | 67.6% | 60 | 0.3% | -6,088 | -35.6% | 17,108 |
| Oswego | 21,036 | 40.0% | 31,216 | 59.4% | 285 | 0.6% | -10,180 | -19.4% | 52,537 |
| Otsego | 13,345 | 48.5% | 13,956 | 50.7% | 222 | 0.8% | -611 | -2.2% | 27,523 |
| Putnam | 24,920 | 45.8% | 29,310 | 53.8% | 231 | 0.5% | -4,390 | -8.0% | 54,461 |
| Queens | 451,360 | 65.4% | 232,407 | 33.7% | 5,703 | 1.0% | 218,953 | 31.7% | 690,470 |
| Rensselaer | 41,950 | 54.1% | 35,065 | 45.2% | 507 | 0.6% | 6,885 | 8.9% | 690,470 |
| Richmond | 74,191 | 37.9% | 119,958 | 61.3% | 1,622 | 0.8% | -45,767 | -23.4% | 195,771 |
| Rockland | 72,003 | 52.7% | 64,082 | 46.9% | 599 | 0.4% | 7,921 | 5.8% | 136,684 |
| St. Lawrence | 19,322 | 45.8% | 22,727 | 53.8% | 170 | 0.4% | -3,405 | -8.0% | 42,219 |
| Saratoga | 68,479 | 53.2% | 59,574 | 46.3% | 633 | 0.5% | 8,905 | 7.9% | 128,686 |
| Schenectady | 40,626 | 58.2% | 28,681 | 41.1% | 489 | 0.7% | 11,945 | 17.1% | 69,798 |
| Schoharie | 6,156 | 39.1% | 9,495 | 60.3% | 88 | 0.6% | -3,339 | -21.2% | 15,739 |
| Schuyler | 3,815 | 41.1% | 5,440 | 58.5% | 37 | 0.4% | -1,625 | -17.4% | 9,262 |
| Seneca | 6,803 | 46.5% | 7,769 | 53.1% | 58 | 0.5% | -966 | -7.6% | 14,630 |
| Steuben | 15,857 | 35.7% | 28,367 | 63.9% | 139 | 0.3% | -12,510 | -28.2% | 44,363 |
| Suffolk | 348,948 | 47.1% | 389,431 | 52.5% | 2,760 | 0.4% | -40,483 | -5.4% | 741,139 |
| Sullivan | 15,755 | 47.7% | 17,122 | 51.8% | 176 | 0.5% | -1,367 | -4.1% | 33,053 |
| Tioga | 9,755 | 40.8% | 14,036 | 58.8% | 90 | 0.4% | -4,281 | -18.0% | 23,881 |
| Tompkins | 34,484 | 75.7% | 10,738 | 23.6% | 350 | 0.7% | 23,746 | 52.1% | 45,572 |
| Ulster | 60,364 | 62.3% | 35,889 | 37.0% | 629 | 0.7% | 24,475 | 25.3% | 96,882 |
| Warren | 18,162 | 51.8% | 16,728 | 47.7% | 167 | 0.5% | 1,434 | 4.1% | 35,057 |
| Washington | 12,539 | 44.9% | 15,221 | 54.5% | 151 | 0.6% | -2,682 | -9.6% | 27,911 |
| Wayne | 17,647 | 40.6% | 25,686 | 59.1% | 160 | 0.3% | -8,039 | -18.5% | 43,943 |
| Westchester | 287,607 | 64.8% | 154,287 | 34.7% | 2,202 | 0.5% | 133,320 | 30.1% | 444,096 |
| Wyoming | 5,330 | 28.5% | 13,268 | 71.0% | 85 | 0.4% | -7,938 | -42.5% | 18,683 |
| Yates | 4,471 | 43.4% | 5,787 | 56.2% | 48 | 0.4% | -1,316 | -12.8% | 10,306 |
| Totals | 4,711,298 | 58.82% | 3,246,114 | 40.52% | 52,905 | 0.66% | 1,465,184 | 18.30% | 8,010,317 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Cayuga (largest municipality: Auburn)
- Cortland (largest municipality: Cortland)
- Franklin (largest municipality: Malone)
- Oneida (largest municipality: Utica)
- Otsego (largest municipality: Oneonta)
- Seneca (largest municipality: Seneca Falls)
- St. Lawrence (largest municipality: Massena)
- Sullivan (largest municipality: Monticello)
- Washington (largest municipality: Hudson Falls)
- Nassau (largest municipality: Hempstead)
- Richmond (Staten Island, borough of New York City)
- Suffolk (largest municipality: Brookhaven)
By congressional district
Gillibrand won 20 of 26 congressional districts, including one that elected a Republican.[75]
| District | Gillibrand | Sapraicone | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 47% | 53% | Nick LaLota |
| 2nd | 45% | 55% | Andrew Garbarino |
| 3rd | 49.8% | 49.6% | Tom Suozzi |
| 4th | 53% | 47% | Laura Gillen |
| 5th | 74% | 26% | Gregory Meeks |
| 6th | 57% | 42% | Grace Meng |
| 7th | 76% | 22% | Nydia Velázquez |
| 8th | 74% | 25% | Hakeem Jeffries |
| 9th | 74% | 24% | Yvette Clarke |
| 10th | 82% | 17% | Dan Goldman |
| 11th | 41% | 58% | Nicole Malliotakis |
| 12th | 81% | 18% | Jerry Nadler |
| 13th | 83% | 16% | Adriano Espaillat |
| 14th | 69% | 30% | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez |
| 15th | 77% | 22% | Ritchie Torres |
| 16th | 68% | 31% | |
| George Latimer | |||
| 17th | 55% | 45% | Mike Lawler |
| 18th | 57% | 43% | Pat Ryan |
| 19th | 54% | 45% | |
| Josh Riley | |||
| 20th | 60% | 40% | Paul Tonko |
| 21st | 44% | 55% | Elise Stefanik |
| 22nd | 56% | 44% | |
| John Mannion | |||
| 23rd | 42% | 58% | Nick Langworthy |
| 24th | 41% | 59% | Claudia Tenney |
| 25th | 60% | 40% | Joseph Morelle |
| 26th | 62% | 37% | Tim Kennedy |
Notes
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - $550,050 of this total was self-funded by Sapraicone
- $6,000 of this total was self-funded by Sare
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- "Some other candidate" with 2%
- Sare (I) with 1%
- "Wouldn't vote" with 2%
- Sare (I) with 1%
- "Wouldn't vote" with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
- "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
Partisan clients