2024 United States Senate election in Tennessee

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The 2024 United States Senate election in Tennessee was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Tennessee. Incumbent one-term Republican Senator Marsha Blackburn defeated state representative Gloria Johnson with 63.8% of the vote. Blackburn improved vastly from her 2018 performance by nearly 19 points.[2]

Quick facts Turnout, Nominee ...
2024 United States Senate election in Tennessee

 2018
November 5, 2024
2030 
Turnout64.04% Increase[1] 9.58 pp
 
Nominee Marsha Blackburn Gloria Johnson
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,918,743 1,027,461
Percentage 63.80% 34.16%

Blackburn:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Johnson:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      50%      No data

U.S. senator before election

Marsha Blackburn
Republican

Elected U.S. senator

Marsha Blackburn
Republican

Close

The primaries took place on August 1, 2024, with Blackburn and Johnson winning their respective party nominations. This was the first general election for a Tennessee senate seat in which the two major party candidates were women.[3]

Blackburn performed comparably to Donald Trump in the general election overall but notably outperformed him in some key counties. Specifically, she outperformed him in Hamilton, Madison, and Shelby. She also outperformed Trump in Haywood County—a county he lost and where she had also previously lost—but this time, she managed to flip it. Johnson lost her home county, Knox County, by a wide margin.[4]

Although Gloria Johnson campaigned for the Senate seat, she simultaneously sought and won re-election to the State House in the 90th district, where she ran unopposed in that race.[5]

On August 6, 2025—just nine months after the election—Blackburn announced her candidacy for the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election.[6][7]

Background

At the federal and state levels, Tennessee is considered to be a strongly red state, having gone to Donald Trump by 23 points in the 2020 presidential election. In Tennessee, Republicans occupied both Senate seats, 8 out of 9 U.S. House seats, supermajorities in both state legislative chambers, and the governor's office.

Due to Tennessee's strong conservative bent, this race was considered a "Safe" Republican hold.

Campaign

After defeating Former Governor Phil Bredesen by a surprisingly wide margin in 2018, Blackburn sought re-election. She was easily re-nominated as the Republican nominee.[8]

Initially, 2020 Democratic nominee for senate, Marquita Bradshaw was seen as the early favorite but months after her announcement, State Representative Gloria Johnson entered the race. Johnson had gained prominence for her protest on the Tennessee house floor over the 2023 Covenant School shooting. Of the three representatives involved in the protest, two were expelled from the legislature, while Johnson narrowly avoided expulsion by just one vote. Johnson would go on to easily win the nomination.[9][10]

Throughout the campaign, Blackburn consistently led Johnson in the polls and enjoyed a significant financial edge, with a $9 million fundraising advantage. On October 16, the two candidates were scheduled to debate, but Blackburn declined to attend, leaving Johnson to face an empty chair.[11][12][13]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Endorsements

Marsha Blackburn

U.S. Executive Branch officials

Organizations

Fundraising

More information Candidate, Raised ...
Campaign finance reports as of July 12, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Marsha Blackburn (R) $14,501,964 $6,339,437 $8,776,627
Source: Federal Election Commission[11]
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Results

Results by county:
  Blackburn
  •   80–90%
  •   >90%
More information Party, Candidate ...
Republican primary results[20]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Marsha Blackburn (incumbent) 367,799 89.48%
Republican Tres Wittum 43,244 10.52%
Write-in 2 <0.01%
Total votes 411,045 100.00%
Close

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

  • Gloria Johnson, state representative from the 90th district (2013–2015, 2019–present)[9]

Eliminated in primary

Declined

  • Joanne Sowell, attorney[22]

Endorsements

Fundraising

More information Candidate, Raised ...
Campaign finance reports as of July 12, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Marquita Bradshaw (D) $36,054 $35,691 $364
Gloria Johnson (D) $5,046,183 $3,009,194 $2,048,985
Source: Federal Election Commission[11]
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Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Marquita
Bradshaw
Gloria
Johnson
Civil
Miller-Watkins
Other Undecided
Targoz Market Research[8][A] March 15 – April 2, 2024 282 (LV) ± 2.77% 7% 38% 2% 1% 52%
Targoz Market Research[27][A] December 14–28, 2023 251 (LV) ± 2.66% 11% 41% 2% 1% 45%
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Results

Results by county:
  Johnson
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   >90%
  Miller-Watkins
  •   40–50%
More information Party, Candidate ...
Democratic primary results[28]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Gloria Johnson 143,962 70.20%
Democratic Marquita Bradshaw 44,657 21.78%
Democratic Lola Brown 10,027 4.89%
Democratic Civil Miller-Watkins 6,420 3.13%
Total votes 205,066 100.00%
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Independents

Candidates

Declared

General election

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[29] Solid R November 9, 2023
Inside Elections[30] Solid R November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[31] Safe R November 9, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[32] Safe R June 8, 2024
Elections Daily[33] Safe R May 4, 2023
CNalysis[34] Safe R November 21, 2023
RealClearPolitics[35] Solid R August 5, 2024
Split Ticket[36] Safe R October 23, 2024
538[37] Solid R October 23, 2024
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Post-primary endorsements

Marsha Blackburn (R)
Individuals

Fundraising

More information Campaign finance reports as of July 12, 2024, Candidate ...
Campaign finance reports as of July 12, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Marsha Blackburn (R) $14,501,964 $6,339,437 $8,776,627
Gloria Johnson (D) $5,069,008 $3,009,194 $2,048,985
Source: Federal Election Commission[11]
Close

Polling

Aggregate polls

More information Source of poll aggregation, Dates administered ...
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Marsha
Blackburn (R)
Gloria
Johnson (D)
Undecided[b] Margin
538[39] through October 28, 2024 October 29, 2024 55.0% 35.7% 9.3% Blackburn +19.3
RCP[40] October 1, 2023 - May 9, 2024 September 9, 2024 50.5% 33.0% 16.5% Blackburn +17.5
TheHill/DDHQ[41] through October 28, 2024 October 29, 2024 59.4% 36.5% 4.1% Blackburn +22.9%
Average 55.0% 35.1% 9.9% Blackburn +19.9%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Marsha
Blackburn (R)
Gloria
Johnson (D)
Undecided
ActiVote[42] October 7–28, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 61% 39%
ActiVote[43] September 14 – October 18, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 61% 39%
Targoz Market Research[44][A] September 27 – October 8, 2024 1,159 (RV) ± 2.77% 52% 29% 18%[c]
971 (LV) ± 2.77% 54% 31% 15%[d]
ActiVote[45] July 25 – September 2, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 60% 40%
Targoz Market Research[46][A] June 20 – July 1, 2024 1,124 (RV) ± 2.77% 49% 32% 19%
944 (LV) ± 2.77% 52% 32% 16%
SSRS/Vanderbilt University[47] April 26 – May 9, 2024 1,003 (RV) ± 3.4% 51% 40% 9%
Targoz Market Research[8][A] March 15 – April 2, 2024 955 (LV) ± 2.77% 45% 29% 26%
Targoz Market Research[48][A] October 5–16, 2023 850 (LV) ± 2.79% 49% 29% 23%
Close
Hypothetical polling

Marsha Blackburn vs. Marquita Bradshaw

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Marsha
Blackburn (R)
Marquita
Bradshaw (D)
Undecided
Targoz Market Research[46][A] June 20 – July 1, 2024 1,124 (RV) ± 2.77% 51% 33% 17%
942 (LV) ± 2.77% 54% 33% 14%
Targoz Market Research[8][A] March 15 – April 2, 2024 947 (LV) ± 2.77% 46% 22% 32%
Targoz Market Research[48][A] October 5–16, 2023 824 (LV) ± 2.79% 48% 36% 17%
Close

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
2024 United States Senate election in Tennessee[49]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Marsha Blackburn (incumbent) 1,918,743 63.80% +9.09%
Democratic Gloria Johnson 1,027,461 34.16% −9.76%
Independent Tharon Chandler 28,444 0.95% N/A
Independent Pamela Moses 24,682 0.82% N/A
Independent Hastina Robinson 8,278 0.28% N/A
Total votes 3,007,608 100.00%
Close
2024 Knoxville Ballot

By county

More information County, Marsha Blackburn Republican ...
County[50] Marsha Blackburn
Republican
Gloria Johnson
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Anderson 23,718 65.83% 11,587 32.16% 722 2.00% 12,131 33.67% 36,027
Bedford 15,098 77.11% 4,067 20.77% 415 2.12% 11,031 56.34% 19,580
Benton 5,653 79.73% 1,283 18.10% 154 2.17% 4,370 61.64% 7,090
Bledsoe 5,061 83.50% 897 14.80% 103 1.70% 4,164 68.70% 6,061
Blount 49,551 72.39% 17,632 25.76% 1,271 1.86% 31,919 46.63% 68,454
Bradley 37,622 78.14% 9,494 19.72% 1,029 2.14% 28,128 58.42% 48,145
Campbell 12,250 81.48% 2,495 16.60% 289 1.92% 9,755 64.88% 15,034
Cannon 5,308 80.31% 1,171 17.72% 130 1.97% 4,137 62.59% 6,609
Carroll 9,446 81.05% 2,017 17.31% 192 1.65% 7,429 63.74% 11,655
Carter 19,687 81.30% 4,081 16.85% 448 1.85% 15,606 64.45% 24,216
Cheatham 14,518 70.84% 5,563 27.14% 414 2.02% 8,955 43.70% 20,495
Chester 6,169 82.86% 1,135 15.25% 141 1.89% 5,034 67.61% 7,445
Claiborne 10,885 82.49% 2,118 16.05% 193 1.46% 8,767 66.44% 13,196
Clay 2,900 81.67% 593 16.70% 58 1.63% 2,307 64.97% 3,551
Cocke 12,471 81.92% 2,456 16.13% 296 1.94% 10,015 65.79% 15,223
Coffee 18,463 75.42% 5,428 22.17% 590 2.41% 13,035 53.25% 24,481
Crockett 4,530 78.95% 1,124 19.59% 84 1.46% 3,406 59.36% 5,738
Cumberland 26,427 78.38% 6,751 20.02% 540 1.60% 19,676 58.36% 33,718
Davidson 100,124 35.08% 179,312 62.83% 5,965 2.09% -79,188 -27.75% 285,401
Decatur 4,410 82.93% 811 15.25% 97 1.82% 3,599 67.68% 5,318
DeKalb 7,137 78.99% 1,707 18.89% 191 2.11% 5,430 60.10% 9,035
Dickson 18,149 73.47% 5,967 24.16% 585 2.37% 12,182 49.31% 24,701
Dyer 11,050 79.73% 2,556 18.44% 253 1.83% 8,494 61.29% 13,859
Fayette 16,600 71.92% 6,111 26.48% 370 1.60% 10,489 45.44% 23,081
Fentress 8,064 85.63% 1,188 12.62% 165 1.75% 6,876 73.01% 9,417
Franklin 14,437 74.90% 4,493 23.31% 344 1.78% 9,944 51.59% 19,274
Gibson 16,078 76.98% 4,386 21.00% 422 2.02% 11,692 55.98% 20,886
Giles 10,027 76.32% 2,844 21.65% 267 2.03% 7,183 54.67% 13,138
Grainger 9,226 84.57% 1,537 14.09% 146 1.34% 7,689 70.48% 10,909
Greene 25,157 82.32% 4,841 15.84% 561 1.84% 20,316 66.48% 30,559
Grundy 4,931 81.79% 960 15.92% 138 2.29% 3,971 65.87% 6,029
Hamblen 19,382 77.60% 5,225 20.92% 370 1.48% 14,157 56.68% 24,977
Hamilton 97,475 56.31% 72,115 41.66% 3,527 2.04% 25,360 14.65% 173,117
Hancock 2,365 85.88% 343 12.45% 46 1.67% 2,022 73.43% 2,754
Hardeman 5,731 62.83% 3,204 35.13% 186 2.04% 2,527 27.70% 9,121
Hardin 9,945 84.83% 1,572 13.41% 207 1.77% 8,373 71.42% 11,724
Hawkins 21,209 83.50% 3,715 14.63% 475 1.87% 17,494 68.87% 25,399
Haywood 3,269 50.21% 3,122 47.95% 120 1.84% 147 2.26% 6,511
Henderson 9,994 84.12% 1,704 14.34% 182 1.53% 8,290 69.78% 11,880
Henry 11,048 76.62% 3,085 21.40% 286 1.98% 7,963 55.22% 14,419
Hickman 8,055 78.99% 1,947 19.09% 195 1.91% 6,108 59.90% 10,197
Houston 2,814 76.38% 801 21.74% 69 1.87% 2,013 54.64% 3,684
Humphreys 6,153 75.79% 1,789 22.03% 177 2.18% 4,364 53.76% 8,119
Jackson 4,279 78.26% 1,093 19.99% 96 1.76% 3,186 58.27% 5,468
Jefferson 20,239 79.89% 4,666 18.42% 428 1.69% 15,573 61.47% 25,333
Johnson 6,666 84.93% 1,085 13.82% 98 1.25% 5,581 71.11% 7,849
Knox 129,275 58.35% 88,913 40.13% 3,373 1.52% 40,362 18.22% 221,561
Lake 1,414 77.27% 384 20.98% 32 1.75% 1,030 56.29% 1,830
Lauderdale 5,434 68.78% 2,311 29.25% 156 1.97% 3,123 39.53% 7,901
Lawrence 15,484 81.86% 2,933 15.51% 498 2.63% 12,551 66.35% 18,915
Lewis 4,613 80.24% 1,002 17.43% 134 2.33% 3,611 62.81% 5,749
Lincoln 12,744 81.62% 2,562 16.41% 307 1.97% 10,182 65.21% 15,613
Loudon 24,848 75.77% 7,428 22.65% 516 1.57% 17,420 53.12% 32,792
Macon 8,342 84.71% 1,321 13.41% 185 1.88% 7,021 71.30% 9,848
Madison 23,578 60.20% 14,807 37.81% 781 1.99% 8,771 22.39% 39,166
Marion 10,314 75.58% 3,042 22.29% 290 2.13% 7,272 53.29% 13,646
Marshall 11,916 76.40% 3,391 21.74% 289 1.85% 8,525 54.66% 15,596
Maury 36,665 71.02% 14,008 27.14% 950 1.84% 22,657 43.88% 51,623
McMinn 18,934 80.09% 4,205 17.79% 503 2.13% 14,729 62.30% 23,642
McNairy 9,155 83.23% 1,680 15.27% 165 1.50% 7,475 67.96% 11,000
Meigs 4,810 81.47% 985 16.68% 109 1.85% 3,825 64.79% 5,904
Monroe 17,759 81.08% 3,694 16.87% 449 2.05% 14,065 64.21% 21,902
Montgomery 46,104 58.36% 30,669 38.82% 2,230 2.82% 15,435 19.54% 79,003
Moore 2,954 82.38% 545 15.20% 87 2.43% 2,409 67.18% 3,586
Morgan 7,090 84.03% 1,215 14.40% 132 1.56% 5,875 69.63% 8,437
Obion 10,378 82.38% 2,041 16.20% 179 1.42% 8,337 66.18% 12,598
Overton 8,413 79.41% 1,970 18.60% 211 1.99% 6,443 60.81% 10,594
Perry 2,906 82.09% 569 16.07% 65 1.84% 2,337 66.02% 3,540
Pickett 2,306 79.99% 513 17.79% 63 2.19% 1,793 62.20% 2,882
Polk 7,041 81.86% 1,429 16.61% 131 1.52% 5,612 65.25% 8,601
Putnam 24,520 71.76% 8,960 26.22% 688 2.01% 15,560 45.54% 34,168
Rhea 11,553 81.77% 2,284 16.17% 292 2.07% 9,269 65.60% 14,129
Roane 20,207 74.89% 6,255 23.18% 520 1.93% 13,952 51.71% 26,982
Robertson 25,146 73.32% 8,322 24.27% 826 2.41% 16,824 49.05% 34,294
Rutherford 86,026 59.28% 55,605 38.32% 3,482 2.40% 30,421 20.96% 145,113
Scott 7,924 86.64% 1,062 11.61% 160 1.75% 6,862 75.03% 9,146
Sequatchie 6,253 81.32% 1,275 16.58% 161 2.09% 4,978 64.74% 7,689
Sevier 34,101 78.81% 8,399 19.41% 770 1.78% 25,702 59.40% 43,270
Shelby 120,568 37.78% 189,954 59.53% 8,572 2.69% -69,386 -21.75% 319,094
Smith 7,255 80.54% 1,576 17.50% 177 1.96% 5,679 63.04% 9,008
Stewart 5,201 80.70% 1,101 17.08% 143 2.22% 4,100 63.62% 6,445
Sullivan 57,989 77.42% 15,646 20.89% 1,267 1.69% 42,343 56.53% 74,902
Sumner 66,413 69.49% 27,119 28.38% 2,040 2.13% 39,294 41.11% 95,572
Tipton 19,625 75.47% 5,839 22.46% 539 2.07% 13,786 53.01% 26,003
Trousdale 3,079 76.78% 842 21.00% 89 2.22% 2,237 55.78% 4,010
Unicoi 6,754 81.25% 1,403 16.88% 156 1.88% 5,351 64.37% 8,313
Union 6,834 82.55% 1,315 15.88% 130 1.57% 5,519 66.67% 8,279
Van Buren 2,533 80.57% 532 16.92% 79 2.51% 2,001 63.65% 3,144
Warren 12,287 75.25% 3,648 22.34% 394 2.41% 8,639 52.91% 16,329
Washington 42,160 69.99% 16,872 28.01% 1,205 2.00% 25,288 41.98% 60,237
Wayne 5,690 86.67% 755 11.50% 120 1.83% 4,935 75.17% 6,565
Weakley 10,375 79.16% 2,494 19.03% 238 1.82% 7,881 60.13% 13,107
White 10,316 81.00% 2,174 17.07% 246 1.93% 8,142 63.93% 12,736
Williamson 94,791 65.77% 46,785 32.46% 2,558 1.77% 48,006 33.31% 144,134
Wilson 54,895 68.51% 23,556 29.40% 1,681 2.10% 31,339 39.11% 80,132
Totals1,918,74363.80%1,027,46134.16%61,4042.04%891,28229.64%3,007,608
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Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

County flips:

By congressional district

Blackburn won eight of nine congressional districts.[51]

More information District, Blackburn ...
District Blackburn Johnson Representative
1st 78.18% 20.04% Diana Harshbarger
2nd 65.34% 33.07% Tim Burchett
3rd 66.70% 31.28% Chuck Fleischmann
4th 69.93% 27.80% Scott DesJarlais
5th 57.94% 40.13% Andy Ogles
6th 65.61% 32.35% John W. Rose
7th 59.82% 37.92% Mark E. Green
8th 70.89% 27.29% David Kustoff
9th 29.00% 67.97% Steve Cohen
Close

See also

Notes

  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. Moses (I) with 4%; Chandler (I) with 2%
  4. Moses (I) with 5%; Chandler (I) with 2%

Partisan clients

  1. Poll sponsored by the Beacon Center of Tennessee

References

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