2024 United States presidential election in Arkansas
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Arkansas took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Arkansas voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Arkansas has six electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
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November 5, 2024
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| Turnout | 65.10%  1.80% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trump easily carried the state for the third time in a row in 2024, this time by a 30.64-point margin, which marks the eighth consecutive presidential election cycle in which Republicans have increased their presidential margins in Arkansas.[2] Trump's margin of victory was the highest since 1972.
Primary elections
Democratic primary
The Arkansas Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 71,978 | 88.52 | 31 |
| Marianne Williamson | 3,883 | 4.78 | 0 |
| Dean Phillips | 2,346 | 2.89 | 0 |
| Stephen Lyons | 1,442 | 1.77 | 0 |
| Armando Perez-Serrato | 879 | 1.08 | 0 |
| Frankie Lozada | 786 | 0.97 | 0 |
| Total | 81,314 | 100% | 31 |
Republican primary
The Arkansas Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 204,898 | 76.89% | 39 | 39 | |
| Nikki Haley | 49,085 | 18.42% | 1 | 1 | |
| Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) | 7,377 | 2.77% | |||
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 3,162 | 1.19% | |||
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 860 | 0.32% | |||
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 600 | 0.23% | |||
| Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 183 | 0.07% | |||
| Doug Burgum (withdrawn) | 157 | 0.06% | |||
| David Stuckenberg | 151 | 0.06% | |||
| Total: | 266,473 | 100.00% | 40 | 40 | |
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[6] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[7] | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[8] | Safe R | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[9] | Safe R | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[10] | Solid R | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[11] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[12] | Safe R | June 12, 2024 |
| 538[13] | Solid R | June 11, 2024 |
| RCP[14] | Solid R | June 26, 2024 |
| NBC News[15] | Safe R | October 6, 2024 |
Polling
Donald J. Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald J. Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hendrix College[16][A] | September 5–6, 2024 | 696 (RV) | ± 4.6 points | 55% | 40% | 1% | – | 0% | 1% | 1% |
Donald J. Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald J. Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden withdraws from the race. | ||||||
| John Zogby Strategies[17][B] | April 13–21, 2024 | 385 (LV) | – | 48% | 42% | 10% |
| Emerson College[18] | October 1–4, 2023 | 435 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 57% | 24% | 19% |
| Echelon Insights[19][C] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 7.7% | 58% | 33% | 9% |
Donald J. Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald J. Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[17][B] | April 13–21, 2024 | 385 (LV) | – | 44% | 42% | 14% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[17][B] | April 13–21, 2024 | 385 (LV) | – | 53% | 35% | 12% |
Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden
Results
|
Trump
40–50%
50–60%
60–70%
70–80%
80–90% |
Harris
40–50%
50–60%
60–70%
70–80%
80–90%
|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 759,241 | 64.20% | +1.80% | ||
| Democratic | 396,905 | 33.56% | –1.22% | ||
| Independent |
|
13,255 | 1.12% | N/A | |
| Libertarian | 5,715 | 0.48% | –0.60% | ||
| Green | 4,275 | 0.36% | +0.12% | ||
| American Solidarity |
|
2,141 | 0.18% | +0.04% | |
| Prohibition |
|
1,144 | 0.10% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 1,182,676 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
By county
| County[20] | Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Arkansas | 3,951 | 71.23% | 1,503 | 27.10% | 93 | 1.68% | 2,448 | 44.13% | 5,547 |
| Ashley | 5,145 | 73.19% | 1,774 | 25.23% | 111 | 1.58% | 3,371 | 47.96% | 7,030 |
| Baxter | 16,253 | 77.57% | 4,341 | 20.72% | 360 | 1.72% | 11,912 | 56.85% | 20,954 |
| Benton | 79,907 | 62.14% | 45,231 | 35.17% | 3,457 | 2.69% | 34,676 | 26.97% | 128,595 |
| Boone | 13,968 | 81.63% | 2,854 | 16.68% | 290 | 1.69% | 11,114 | 64.95% | 17,112 |
| Bradley | 2,213 | 68.96% | 961 | 29.95% | 35 | 1.09% | 1,252 | 39.01% | 3,209 |
| Calhoun | 1,674 | 80.02% | 379 | 18.12% | 39 | 1.86% | 1,295 | 61.90% | 2,092 |
| Carroll | 7,470 | 64.74% | 3,812 | 33.04% | 256 | 2.22% | 3,658 | 31.70% | 11,538 |
| Chicot | 1,658 | 47.51% | 1,796 | 51.46% | 36 | 1.03% | -138 | -3.95% | 3,490 |
| Clark | 4,526 | 59.11% | 2,959 | 38.64% | 172 | 2.25% | 1,567 | 20.47% | 7,657 |
| Clay | 3,968 | 79.89% | 907 | 18.26% | 92 | 1.85% | 3,061 | 61.63% | 4,967 |
| Cleburne | 10,595 | 83.17% | 1,941 | 15.24% | 203 | 1.59% | 8,654 | 67.93% | 12,739 |
| Cleveland | 2,804 | 83.11% | 524 | 15.53% | 46 | 1.36% | 2,280 | 67.58% | 3,374 |
| Columbia | 5,367 | 67.59% | 2,466 | 31.06% | 107 | 1.35% | 2,901 | 36.53% | 7,940 |
| Conway | 5,893 | 69.00% | 2,449 | 28.67% | 199 | 2.33% | 3,444 | 40.33% | 8,541 |
| Craighead | 25,152 | 67.54% | 11,210 | 30.10% | 880 | 2.36% | 13,942 | 37.44% | 37,242 |
| Crawford | 18,615 | 78.10% | 4,753 | 19.94% | 466 | 1.96% | 13,862 | 58.16% | 23,834 |
| Crittenden | 7,028 | 47.87% | 7,362 | 50.15% | 291 | 1.98% | -334 | -2.28% | 14,681 |
| Cross | 4,753 | 72.74% | 1,642 | 25.13% | 139 | 2.13% | 3,111 | 47.61% | 6,534 |
| Dallas | 1,482 | 63.77% | 798 | 34.34% | 44 | 1.89% | 684 | 29.43% | 2,324 |
| Desha | 1,805 | 51.50% | 1,638 | 46.73% | 62 | 1.77% | 167 | 4.77% | 3,505 |
| Drew | 4,203 | 66.03% | 2,050 | 32.21% | 112 | 1.76% | 2,153 | 33.82% | 6,365 |
| Faulkner | 35,357 | 64.92% | 17,752 | 32.59% | 1,356 | 2.49% | 17,605 | 32.33% | 54,465 |
| Franklin | 5,582 | 80.07% | 1,232 | 17.67% | 157 | 2.25% | 4,350 | 62.40% | 6,971 |
| Fulton | 4,040 | 80.11% | 906 | 17.97% | 97 | 1.92% | 3,134 | 62.14% | 5,043 |
| Garland | 28,359 | 67.00% | 13,015 | 30.75% | 953 | 2.25% | 15,344 | 36.25% | 42,327 |
| Grant | 6,755 | 83.62% | 1,192 | 14.76% | 131 | 1.62% | 5,563 | 68.86% | 8,078 |
| Greene | 12,617 | 79.75% | 2,935 | 18.55% | 268 | 1.69% | 9,682 | 61.20% | 15,820 |
| Hempstead | 4,193 | 68.86% | 1,776 | 29.17% | 120 | 1.97% | 2,417 | 39.69% | 6,089 |
| Hot Spring | 9,226 | 75.11% | 2,818 | 22.94% | 239 | 1.95% | 6,408 | 52.17% | 12,283 |
| Howard | 3,246 | 72.57% | 1,158 | 25.89% | 69 | 1.54% | 2,088 | 46.68% | 4,473 |
| Independence | 11,023 | 78.67% | 2,689 | 19.19% | 299 | 2.13% | 8,334 | 59.48% | 14,011 |
| Izard | 4,854 | 81.92% | 949 | 16.02% | 122 | 2.06% | 3,905 | 65.90% | 5,925 |
| Jackson | 3,509 | 73.49% | 1,183 | 24.77% | 83 | 1.74% | 2,326 | 48.72% | 4,775 |
| Jefferson | 8,468 | 39.19% | 12,802 | 59.25% | 338 | 1.56% | -4,334 | -20.06% | 21,608 |
| Johnson | 6,766 | 74.69% | 2,107 | 23.26% | 186 | 2.05% | 4,659 | 51.43% | 9,059 |
| Lafayette | 1,589 | 68.34% | 698 | 30.02% | 38 | 1.63% | 891 | 38.32% | 2,325 |
| Lawrence | 4,608 | 80.96% | 965 | 16.95% | 119 | 2.09% | 3,643 | 64.01% | 5,692 |
| Lee | 1,181 | 46.87% | 1,270 | 50.40% | 69 | 2.74% | -89 | -3.53% | 2,520 |
| Lincoln | 2,502 | 74.20% | 813 | 24.11% | 57 | 1.69% | 1,689 | 50.09% | 3,372 |
| Little River | 3,744 | 76.42% | 1,084 | 22.13% | 71 | 1.45% | 2,660 | 54.29% | 4,899 |
| Logan | 6,567 | 80.04% | 1,464 | 17.84% | 174 | 2.12% | 5,103 | 62.20% | 8,205 |
| Lonoke | 23,225 | 75.85% | 6,790 | 22.18% | 605 | 1.98% | 16,435 | 53.67% | 30,620 |
| Madison | 5,885 | 78.46% | 1,491 | 19.88% | 125 | 1.67% | 4,394 | 58.58% | 7,501 |
| Marion | 6,230 | 79.35% | 1,501 | 19.12% | 120 | 1.53% | 4,729 | 60.23% | 7,851 |
| Miller | 11,842 | 74.94% | 3,769 | 23.85% | 192 | 1.21% | 8,073 | 51.09% | 15,803 |
| Mississippi | 6,963 | 64.97% | 3,574 | 33.35% | 180 | 1.68% | 3,389 | 31.62% | 10,717 |
| Monroe | 1,385 | 56.93% | 1,002 | 41.18% | 46 | 1.89% | 383 | 15.75% | 2,433 |
| Montgomery | 2,987 | 80.58% | 645 | 17.40% | 75 | 2.02% | 2,342 | 63.18% | 3,707 |
| Nevada | 2,002 | 68.87% | 849 | 29.21% | 56 | 1.93% | 1,153 | 39.66% | 2,907 |
| Newton | 3,063 | 81.25% | 644 | 17.08% | 63 | 1.67% | 2,419 | 64.17% | 3,770 |
| Ouachita | 5,056 | 58.61% | 3,412 | 39.55% | 158 | 1.83% | 1,644 | 19.06% | 8,626 |
| Perry | 3,559 | 77.64% | 923 | 20.14% | 102 | 2.23% | 2,636 | 57.50% | 4,584 |
| Phillips | 2,098 | 42.49% | 2,754 | 55.77% | 86 | 1.74% | -656 | -13.28% | 4,938 |
| Pike | 3,746 | 85.96% | 560 | 12.85% | 52 | 1.19% | 3,186 | 73.11% | 4,358 |
| Poinsett | 5,731 | 80.96% | 1,235 | 17.45% | 113 | 1.60% | 4,496 | 63.51% | 7,079 |
| Polk | 6,987 | 84.30% | 1,145 | 13.82% | 156 | 1.88% | 5,842 | 70.48% | 8,288 |
| Pope | 18,118 | 74.90% | 5,487 | 22.68% | 586 | 2.42% | 12,631 | 52.22% | 24,191 |
| Prairie | 2,628 | 82.13% | 524 | 16.38% | 48 | 1.50% | 2,104 | 65.75% | 3,200 |
| Pulaski | 57,977 | 37.67% | 92,038 | 59.79% | 3,909 | 2.54% | -34,061 | -22.12% | 153,924 |
| Randolph | 5,367 | 80.88% | 1,138 | 17.15% | 131 | 1.97% | 4,229 | 63.73% | 6,636 |
| Saline | 39,736 | 68.98% | 16,609 | 28.83% | 1,264 | 2.19% | 23,127 | 40.15% | 57,609 |
| Scott | 2,913 | 86.08% | 425 | 12.56% | 46 | 1.36% | 2,488 | 73.52% | 3,384 |
| Searcy | 3,305 | 85.42% | 511 | 13.21% | 53 | 1.37% | 2,794 | 72.21% | 3,869 |
| Sebastian | 30,719 | 67.59% | 13,652 | 30.04% | 1,081 | 2.38% | 17,067 | 37.55% | 45,452 |
| Sevier | 3,772 | 80.02% | 862 | 18.29% | 80 | 1.70% | 2,910 | 61.73% | 4,714 |
| Sharp | 5,978 | 80.38% | 1,316 | 17.70% | 143 | 1.92% | 4,662 | 62.68% | 7,437 |
| St. Francis | 2,909 | 48.65% | 2,953 | 49.39% | 117 | 1.96% | -44 | -0.74% | 5,979 |
| Stone | 4,808 | 79.73% | 1,089 | 18.06% | 133 | 2.21% | 3,719 | 61.67% | 6,030 |
| Union | 10,196 | 66.00% | 5,019 | 32.49% | 233 | 1.51% | 5,177 | 33.51% | 15,448 |
| Van Buren | 6,023 | 79.03% | 1,437 | 18.86% | 161 | 2.11% | 4,586 | 60.17% | 7,621 |
| Washington | 50,243 | 51.71% | 43,779 | 45.06% | 3,136 | 3.23% | 6,464 | 6.65% | 97,158 |
| White | 24,514 | 79.50% | 5,641 | 18.29% | 682 | 2.21% | 18,873 | 61.21% | 30,837 |
| Woodruff | 1,513 | 65.27% | 760 | 32.79% | 45 | 1.94% | 753 | 32.48% | 2,318 |
| Yell | 5,147 | 79.47% | 1,213 | 18.73% | 117 | 1.81% | 3,934 | 60.74% | 6,477 |
| Totals | 759,241 | 64.20% | 396,905 | 33.56% | 26,530 | 2.24% | 362,336 | 30.64% | 1,182,676 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
By congressional district
Trump won all four congressional districts.[21]
| District | Trump | Harris | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 71.69% | 26.40% | Rick Crawford |
| 2nd | 56.56% | 41.03% | French Hill |
| 3rd | 61.08% | 36.19% | Steve Womack |
| 4th | 69.03% | 29.12% | Bruce Westerman |
Analysis
Although former Democratic President Bill Clinton hails from the state and comfortably won it in both of his victories (1992 and 1996), Arkansas is a Southern state in the Bible Belt that has trended strongly towards the Republican Party in the 21st century, with Al Gore (from neighboring Tennessee) losing the state in 2000 by 5.45%. The last Democratic presidential candidate to come within single digits of carrying Arkansas, or even win more than 40% of the state vote, was John Kerry in 2004. The state's rightward shift continued under Barack Obama, leading to Arkansas becoming a Republican stronghold at the presidential level. In 2008, Obama became the first Democrat to win without carrying Arkansas despite decisively winning nationwide.
The GOP's popularity in Arkansas has become so pronounced that the state turned sharply against former First Lady of Arkansas Hillary Clinton in 2016, favoring Republican Donald Trump by 26.9%. Trump easily won the state again by 27.6% in 2020. In addition, Republicans have held all statewide elected positions in Arkansas since 2015.
Trump became the first Republican to carry the plurality-Black Delta county of Desha in a presidential election since landslide victor Richard Nixon in 1972, when he carried every county in the state. Trump's success in Desha, as well as his narrowed margin in other Delta region counties, was partially attributed to a decreased turnout rate in the traditionally Democratic region (of the 10 counties in the state with the lowest turnout, 4 were in the Delta despite the Delta containing only 20% of the state's counties).[22] Despite this, he still failed to reach the success level seen by other Republicans in the region, most notably underperforming compared to Sarah Huckabee Sanders and John Boozman in the 2022 gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races.
See also
Notes
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
Partisan clients
- Poll sponsored by Talk Business & Politics
- Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
- Poll sponsored by NetChoice