2024 United States presidential election in Wisconsin
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Wisconsin took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Wisconsin voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Wisconsin awarded ten electoral votes in the Electoral College.[1]
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November 5, 2024
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Wisconsin was considered to be a crucial battleground in 2024, with almost all major news organizations marking the state as a tossup.[2] The Wisconsin Green Party attained ballot access after not appearing in 2020.[3]
Trump won Wisconsin with 49.6% of the vote, the highest percentage a Republican candidate has received in Wisconsin since Reagan's 1984 landslide. When Wisconsin was called for Trump, a number of networks simultaneously declared Trump the president-elect, winning a second, non-consecutive term.
Trump's victory in the state made him the first Republican candidate to carry Wisconsin twice since Ronald Reagan did so in 1980 and 1984. He also received nearly 1.7 million votes, a record for a candidate in the history of the state.
Wisconsin was the closest state in the election by margin with Trump winning it by 0.86%, as well as the only state to be decided by less than a 1% margin. While almost all of the state's counties swung right from 2020, Harris improved in the three WOW counties and Door County.
As of 2024, Wisconsin has, together with Michigan and Pennsylvania, the longest-running active streak among states of voting for the winning presidential candidate, having done so in the latest five presidential elections. The results also extended it to nine consecutive presidential elections where the winning party did not differ between those three states. This was the first election since 2012 where Wisconsin voted to the left of the nation as a whole. This was also the first time that Door County voted for the losing candidate of the presidential election since 1992, a record it shared with Blaine County, Montana, up until this election where Blaine County became the sole longest bellwether county. This election was also the first time since 1988 that Wisconsin voted to the left of neighboring Michigan.
Primary elections
Democratic primary
The Wisconsin Democratic primary was held on April 2, 2024, alongside contests in Connecticut, New York, and Rhode Island.
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 512,379 | 87.96 | 82 |
| Dean Phillips (withdrawn) | 17,730 | 3.04 | 0 |
| Uninstructed Delegation | 48,373 | 8.30 | 0 |
| Write-in votes (as Scattering) | 4,045 | 0.69 | — |
| Total | 582,527 | 100% | 82 |
Republican primary
The Wisconsin Republican primary was held on April 2, 2024, alongside contests in Connecticut, New York, and Rhode Island.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 477,103 | 78.97% | 41 | 0 | 0 |
| Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 76,841 | 12.72% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 20,124 | 3.33% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Uninstructed | 13,057 | 2.16% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 9,771 | 1.62% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 5,200 | 0.86% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Write-ins | 2,081 | 0.34% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total: | 604,177 | 100.00% | 41 | 0 | 41 |
General election
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Campaign
Convention
The Republican Party held their presidential nomination convention in the Wisconsin city of Milwaukee, where Donald Trump and JD Vance were formally nominated as the GOP ticket.[6][7] This year marked the first time that Milwaukee hosted the Republican National Convention. The Democratic National Convention was selected for Milwaukee in 2020 but much of the convention activity was cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic.[8]
Candidates
The following candidates have qualified for the general election ballot:[9]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[10] | Tossup | November 4, 2024 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[11] | Lean D | November 4, 2024 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[12] | Tossup | November 4, 2024 |
| CNN[13] | Tossup | November 4, 2024 |
| CNalysis[14] | Lean D | November 4, 2024 |
| The Economist[15] | Tossup | November 4, 2024 |
| 538[16] | Tossup | November 4, 2024 |
| Inside Elections[17] | Tossup | November 4, 2024 |
| NBC News[18] | Tossup | November 4, 2024 |
Polling
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided [b] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270ToWin[19] | October 23 – November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 48.8% | 47.7% | 3.5% | Harris +1.1% |
| 538[20] | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 48.3% | 47.3% | 4.4% | Harris +1.0% |
| Silver Bulletin[21] | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 48.7% | 47.7% | 3.6% | Harris +1.0% |
| The Hill/DDHQ[22] | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 48.4% | 48.7% | 2.9% | Trump +0.3% |
| Average | 48.6% | 47.9% | 3.5% | Harris +0.7% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HarrisX[23] | November 3–5, 2024 | 1,727 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 47% | 46% | 7% |
| 51%[d] | 49% | – | ||||
| 1,549 (LV) | 49% | 47% | 4% | |||
| 51%[d] | 49% | – | ||||
| AtlasIntel[24] | November 3–4, 2024 | 869 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 50% | 1% |
| Research Co.[25] | November 2–3, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 49% | 46% | 5% |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[26] | November 1–3, 2024 | 1,086 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 47% | 5%[e] |
| Patriot Polling[27] | November 1–3, 2024 | 835 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 49% | 2% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[28] | November 1–2, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 49% | 3%[f] |
| AtlasIntel[29] | November 1–2, 2024 | 728 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 50% | 1% |
| Emerson College[30] | October 30 – November 2, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 49% | 49% | 2%[g] |
| 50%[d] | 50% | – | ||||
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[31] | October 25 – November 2, 2024 | 798 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 48% | 3%[h] |
| 786 (LV) | 49% | 48% | 3%[h] | |||
| The New York Times/Siena College[32] | October 25 – November 2, 2024 | 1,305 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 47% | 4% |
| 1,305 (LV) | 49% | 47% | 4% | |||
| ActiVote[33] | October 10 – November 1, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 51% | 49% | – |
| AtlasIntel[34] | October 30–31, 2024 | 673 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 49% | 2% |
| OnMessage Inc. (R)[35] | October 29–31, 2024 | 800 (LV) | – | 47% | 48% | 5% |
| YouGov[36][A] | October 25–31, 2024 | 889 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 51% | 47% | 2% |
| 876 (LV) | 51% | 47% | 2% | |||
| Morning Consult[37] | October 22−31, 2024 | 540 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| TIPP Insights[38][B] | October 28–30, 2024 | 1,038 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 46% | 6% |
| 831 (LV) | 48% | 48% | 4% | |||
| Marist College[39] | October 27–30, 2024 | 1,444 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 50% | 48% | 2%[i] |
| 1,330 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 48% | 2%[i] | ||
| Echelon Insights[40] | October 27–30, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 49% | 49% | 2% |
| Quantus Insights (R)[41][C] | October 28–29, 2024 | 637 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 49% | 49% | 2% |
| SoCal Strategies (R)[42][D] | October 28–29, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 49% | 2% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[43][E] | October 25–29, 2024 | 818 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 50% | 3%[f] |
| AtlasIntel[44] | October 25–29, 2024 | 1,470 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 49% | 2% |
| CNN/SSRS[45] | October 23–28, 2024 | 736 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 51% | 45% | 4% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[46] | October 26–27, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 49% | 3%[f] |
| CES/YouGov[47] | October 1–25, 2024 | 1,552 (A) | – | 51% | 46% | 3% |
| 1,542 (LV) | 50% | 47% | 3% | |||
| Marquette University Law School[48] | October 16–24, 2024 | 834 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 46% | 6% |
| 51%[d] | 49% | – | ||||
| 753 (LV) | 48% | 47% | 5% | |||
| 50%[d] | 49% | 1% | ||||
| Emerson College[49][F] | October 21–22, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 49% | 3%[g] |
| 49%[d] | 50% | 1%[g] | ||||
| Quinnipiac University[50] | October 17–21, 2024 | 1,108 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[51] | October 18−20, 2024 | 1,083 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 47% | 6%[f] |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[52] | October 16–20, 2024 | 635 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| 624 (LV) | 48% | 48% | 4% | |||
| The Bullfinch Group[53] | October 11−18, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 47% | 3% |
| 48% | 46% | 7%[j] | ||||
| AtlasIntel[54] | October 12–17, 2024 | 932 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 48% | 3% |
| RMG Research[55][G] | October 10−16, 2024 | 787 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 49% | 3%[k] |
| 49%[d] | 50% | 1% | ||||
| Morning Consult[37] | October 6−15, 2024 | 527 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 48% | 5% |
| The Washington Post/Schar School[56] | September 30 – October 15, 2024 | 695 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 50% | 46% | 4% |
| 695 (LV) | 50% | 47% | 3% | |||
| Patriot Polling[57] | October 12–14, 2024 | 803 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 50% | 1% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[58][E] | October 9–14, 2024 | 1,004 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 49% | 4% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[59] | October 8–9, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 48% | 4%[e] |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/McLaughlin & Associates (R)[60][H] | October 6–9, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| Emerson College[61] | October 5–8, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 49% | 2%[g] |
| 49%[d] | 50% | 1%[g] | ||||
| The Wall Street Journal[62] | September 28 – October 8, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Research Co.[63] | October 5–7, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 47% | 45% | 8%[l] |
| 50%[d] | 48% | 2%[l] | ||||
| Quinnipiac University[64] | October 3–7, 2024 | 1,073 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 49% | 4% |
| Arc Insights[65][I] | October 2–6, 2024 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 48% | 5% |
| OnMessage Inc. (R)[66][J] | September 24 – October 2, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[67] | September 28–30, 2024 | 1,079 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 47% | 7%[e] |
| Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)[68][K] | September 23–29, 2024 | 408 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 46% | 6% |
| ActiVote[69] | August 29 – September 29, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 52% | 48% | – |
| The New York Times/Siena College[70] | September 21–26, 2024 | 680 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 47% | 4% |
| 680 (LV) | 49% | 47% | 4% | |||
| Marquette University Law School[71] | September 18–26, 2024 | 882 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 45% | 5% |
| 52%[d] | 48% | – | ||||
| 798 (LV) | 50% | 45% | 5% | |||
| 52%[d] | 48% | – | ||||
| AtlasIntel[72] | September 20–25, 2024 | 1,077 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 50% | 2% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[73] | September 19–25, 2024 | 411 (LV) | – | 49% | 47% | 4% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[74] | September 19–25, 2024 | 849 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 48% | 2% |
| 785 (LV) | 51% | 48% | 1% | |||
| Rodriguez Gudelunas Strategies[75][L] | September 19–23, 2024 | 400 (LV) | – | 51% | 45% | 4% |
| RMG Research[76][G] | September 17–23, 2024 | 788 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 49% | 1%[g] |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[77][E] | September 19−22, 2024 | 1,071 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 49% | 1% |
| Emerson College[78] | September 15–18, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | 3%[g] |
| 49%[d] | 50% | 1%[g] | ||||
| MassINC Polling Group[79][M] | September 12−18, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 53% | 46% | 1% |
| Morning Consult[37] | September 9−18, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 44% | 6% |
| Marist College[80] | September 12−17, 2024 | 1,312 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 47% | 3%[m] |
| 1,194 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 50% | 49% | 1%[i] | ||
| Quinnipiac University[81] | September 12–16, 2024 | 1,075 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 48% | 3% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[82][N] | September 11–14, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 48% | 3% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[83] | September 11–12, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 47% | 4%[n] |
| Morning Consult[37] | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 638 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 46% | 5% |
| co/efficient (R)[84] | September 4–6, 2024 | 917 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 47% | 6% |
| CBS News/YouGov[85] | September 3–6, 2024 | 946 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 49% | – |
| Marquette University Law School[86] | August 28 – September 5, 2024 | 822 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 49% | 45% | 6% |
| 52%[d] | 48% | – | ||||
| 738 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 49% | 44% | 7% | ||
| 52%[d] | 48% | – | ||||
| Patriot Polling[87] | September 1–3, 2024 | 826 (RV) | – | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[88] | August 28–30, 2024 | 1,083 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 47% | 7%[e] |
| Emerson College[89] | August 25–28, 2024 | 850 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| 49%[d] | 50% | 1%[g] | ||||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[90] | August 23–26, 2024 | 648 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 53% | 44% | 3% |
| 701 (RV) | 52% | 44% | 4% | |||
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | ||||||
| YouGov[91][O] | August 15–23, 2024 | 500 (A) | ± 5.3% | 48% | 42% | 10%[o] |
| – (LV) | ± 5.9% | 51% | 46% | 3% | ||
| Democratic National Convention | ||||||
| BK Strategies[92][P] | August 19–21, 2024 | 600 (LV) | – | 48% | 45% | 7% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)[93][Q] | August 19–21, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 49% | 45% | 6% |
| Spry Strategies (R)[94][R] | August 14–20, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 45% | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[95][S] | August 13–19, 2024 | 1,099 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| Focaldata[96] | August 6–16, 2024 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 52% | 48% | – |
| Quantus Insights (R)[97][C] | August 14–15, 2024 | 601 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| TIPP Insights[98][B] | August 12–14, 2024 | 1,015 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 47% | 46% | 7% |
| 976 (LV) | 47% | 47% | 6% | |||
| The Bullfinch Group[99][T] | August 8–11, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 42% | 7% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[100] | August 6–8, 2024 | 800 (LV) | – | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| Navigator Research (D)[101] | July 31 – August 8, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[102] | July 26 – August 8, 2024 | 404 (LV) | – | 49% | 46% | 5% |
| The New York Times/Siena College[103] | August 5–8, 2024 | 661 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 50% | 46% | 4% |
| 661 (LV) | 50% | 46% | 3% | |||
| Kamala Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate. | ||||||
| RMG Research [104][G] | July 31 – August 5, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 45% | 7% |
| Marquette University Law School[105] | July 24 – August 1, 2024 | 877 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 47% | 44% | 9% |
| 49%[d] | 50% | 1% | ||||
| 801 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 49% | 45% | 6% | ||
| 50%[d] | 49% | 1% | ||||
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[106][U] | July 23–29, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 46% | 6% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[107] | July 24–28, 2024 | 700 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 47% | 4% |
| Fox News[108] | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,046 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 50% | 1% |
| Emerson College[109] | July 22–23, 2024 | 845 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 47% | 47% | 6% |
| 51%[d] | 49% | – | ||||
| Joe Biden announces his withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president. | ||||||
| Republican National Convention | ||||||
| Attempted assassination of Donald Trump | ||||||
| Public Policy Polling (D)[110][V] | July 10–11, 2024 | 548 (RV) | – | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| North Star Opinion Research (R)[111][B] | July 6–10, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 48% | 5% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[112] | May 7–13, 2024 | 693 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 49% | 10% |
| Emerson College[113] | February 20–24, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| The New York Times/Siena College[114] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 603 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| 603 (LV) | 46% | 48% | 6% | |||
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HarrisX[23] | November 3–5, 2024 | 1,727 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 45% | 45% | 2% | 1% | – | 7% |
| 48.0%[d] | 47.9% | 2.6% | 1.4% | – | – | ||||
| 1,549 (LV) | 47% | 47% | 2% | 1% | – | 3% | |||
| 48.1%[d] | 48.5% | 2.1% | 1.3% | – | – | ||||
| AtlasIntel[24] | November 3–4, 2024 | 869 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | – | 1% | 0% | 1%[n] |
| AtlasIntel[29] | November 1–2, 2024 | 728 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 49% | – | 1% | 0% | 2%[n] |
| The New York Times/Siena College[32] | October 25 – November 2, 2024 | 1,305 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 45% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 5% |
| 1,305 (LV) | 48% | 45% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 6% | |||
| Focaldata[115] | October 3 – November 1, 2024 | 1,799 (LV) | – | 50% | 47% | – | 0% | 1% | 2% |
| 1,613 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 51% | 46% | – | 1% | 1% | 1% | ||
| 1,799 (A) | – | 49% | 46% | – | 1% | 1% | 3% | ||
| AtlasIntel[34] | October 30–31, 2024 | 673 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 49% | – | 1% | 0% | 2% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[116] | October 28–31, 2024 | 932 (LV) | – | 48% | 47% | – | 0% | 1% | 4% |
| YouGov[36][A] | October 25–31, 2024 | 889 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 48% | 45% | 0% | 3% | – | 4% |
| 876 (LV) | 49% | 45% | 0% | 2% | – | 4% | |||
| AtlasIntel[44] | October 25–29, 2024 | 1,470 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | – | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[117] | October 25–27, 2024 | 746 (LV) | – | 49% | 47% | – | 0% | 1% | 3% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[118] | October 20–22, 2024 | 557 (LV) | – | 49% | 47% | – | 0% | 1% | 3% |
| OnMessage Inc. (R)[119][W] | October 19–22, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 48% | – | 0% | 1% | 4%[n] |
| Quinnipiac University[50] | October 17–21, 2024 | 1,108 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 48% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4%[p] |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[52] | October 16–20, 2024 | 635 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 47% | – | 1% | 3% | 2% |
| 624 (LV) | 47% | 47% | – | 1% | 3% | 2% | |||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[120] | October 16–18, 2024 | 622 (LV) | – | 47% | 46% | – | 0% | 1% | 6% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[121] | October 12–14, 2024 | 641 (LV) | – | 48% | 47% | – | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| Quinnipiac University[64] | October 3–7, 2024 | 1,073 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 48% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 4%[p] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[122] | September 27 – October 2, 2024 | 533 (LV) | – | 47% | 46% | – | 0% | 1% | 6% |
| The New York Times/Siena College[70] | September 21–26, 2024 | 680 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 45% | – | 1% | 2% | 4% |
| 680 (LV) | 48% | 46% | – | 1% | 2% | 3% | |||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[74] | September 19–25, 2024 | 849 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 47% | – | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| 785 (LV) | 50% | 47% | – | 0% | 1% | 2% | |||
| Remington Research Group (R)[123][X] | September 16–20, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 48% | 1% | 0% | – | 3% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[124] | September 16–19, 2024 | 600 (LV) | – | 47% | 47% | – | 0% | 0% | 6% |
| Quinnipiac University[81] | September 12–16, 2024 | 1,075 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 47% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 3%[p] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[125] | September 6–9, 2024 | 626 (LV) | – | 49% | 46% | – | 0% | 1% | 4% |
| YouGov[126][A] | August 23 – September 3, 2024 | 900 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 47% | 44% | 1% | 1% | – | 7%[f] |
| CNN/SSRS[127] | August 23–29, 2024 | 976 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 44% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[128] | August 25–28, 2024 | 672 (LV) | – | 48% | 44% | – | 0% | 0% | 8% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[90] | August 23–26, 2024 | 648 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 44% | – | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| 701 (RV) | 51% | 44% | – | 1% | 1% | 3% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.[q] Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Cornel West Independent |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Others/ Undecided [r] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race to the WH[129] | through October 7, 2024 | October 13, 2024 | 47.7% | 46.3% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 2.3% | Harris +1.4% |
| 270toWin[130] | October 2 – 11, 2024 | October 11, 2024 | 47.0% | 45.7% | 2.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 3.1% | Harris +1.3% |
| Average | 47.4% | 46.0% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 2.6% | Harris +1.4% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TIPP Insights[38][B] | October 28–30, 2024 | 1,038 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 44% | 3% | 1% | 1% | – | 5% |
| 831 (LV) | 48% | 47% | 3% | 1% | 1% | – | – | |||
| Echelon Insights[40] | October 27–30, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 48% | 48% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 3% |
| CNN/SSRS[131] | October 23–28, 2024 | 736 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 51% | 45% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 2% |
| Marquette University Law School[48] | October 16–24, 2024 | 834 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 43% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2%[p] |
| 753 (LV) | 46% | 44% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1%[p] | |||
| USA Today/Suffolk University[132][133] | October 20–23, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 48% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 3%[p] |
| AtlasIntel[54] | October 12–17, 2024 | 932 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 48% | 1% | – | 0% | 1% | 1% |
| The Wall Street Journal[62] | September 28 – October 8, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 46% | 45% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 5% |
| Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)[68][K] | September 23–29, 2024 | 408 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 46% | 45% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 5% |
| Marquette University Law School[71] | September 18–26, 2024 | 882 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 44% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 3%[s] |
| 798 (LV) | 49% | 44% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2%[s] | |||
| AtlasIntel[72] | September 20–25, 2024 | 1,077 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 50% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | – |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[73] | September 19–25, 2024 | 411 (LV) | – | 48% | 46% | 0% | 1% | 2% | – | 3% |
| MassINC Polling Group[79][M] | September 12−18, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 51% | 45% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 2% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[82][N] | September 11–14, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 45% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 4%[t] |
| Marquette University Law School[86] | August 28 – September 5, 2024 | 822 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 47% | 43% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 738 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 48% | 43% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1%[u] | ||
| Z to A Research (D)[134][Y] | August 23–26, 2024 | 518 (LV) | – | 47% | 47% | 2% | – | 0% | 1% | 3% |
| YouGov[91][O] | August 15–23, 2024 | 500 (A) | ± 5.3% | 45% | 40% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 9%[v] |
| – (LV) | ± 5.9% | 49% | 45% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 4% | ||
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[95][S] | August 13–19, 2024 | 1,099 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 46% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 2% |
| Focaldata[96] | August 6–16, 2024 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 44% | 4% | – | 1% | 0% | 1% |
| 700 (RV) | 50% | 42% | 5% | – | 1% | 0% | 2% | |||
| 700 (A) | 50% | 43% | 5% | – | 1% | 0% | 1% | |||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[135] | August 12–15, 2024 | 469 (LV) | – | 48% | 44% | 3% | – | 0% | 0% | 5% |
| The Bullfinch Group[99][T] | August 8–11, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 40% | 3% | 1% | 1% | – | 6% |
| The New York Times/Siena College[103] | August 5–8, 2024 | 661 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 49% | 42% | 6% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| 661 (LV) | 49% | 43% | 5% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | |||
| Navigator Research (D)[101] | July 31 – August 8, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 45% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[102] | July 26 – August 8, 2024 | 404 (LV) | – | 48% | 43% | 5% | 1% | 0% | – | 3% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[136] | July 31 – August 3, 2024 | 597 (LV) | – | 43% | 43% | 3% | – | 0% | 0% | 11% |
| Marquette University Law School[105] | July 24 – August 1, 2024 | 877 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 45% | 43% | 8% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| 801 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 46% | 45% | 6% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | ||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[107] | July 24–28, 2024 | 700 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 45% | 6% | – | 0% | 3% | 2% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[137] | July 22–24, 2024 | 523 (LV) | – | 44% | 44% | 5% | – | 1% | 1% | 5% |
| Fox News[108] | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,046 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 46% | 5% | 1% | 1% | – | 1% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spry Strategies (R)[94][R] | August 14–20, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 42% | 3% | 2% | 7% |
| Emerson College[109] | July 22–23, 2024 | 845 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 45% | 3% | 1% | 6% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquette University Law School[105] | July 24 – August 1, 2024 | 877 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 42% | 47% | 11% |
| 801 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 44% | 47% | 9% | ||
| Emerson College[139][Z] | July 15–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 48% | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[140][AA] | July 11–12, 2024 | 653 (V) | ± 3.8% | 47% | 46% | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[141][AB] | July 5–12, 2024 | 1,020 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[110][V] | July 10–11, 2024 | 548 (RV) | – | 47% | 47% | 6% |
| North Star Opinion Research (R)[111][B] | July 6–10, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
| Echelon Insights[142][AC] | July 1–8, 2024 | 617 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[143] | July 1–5, 2024 | 695 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 44% | 9% |
| SoCal Strategies (R)[144][AD] | June 30 – July 2, 2024 | 490 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 44% | 13% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[145][N] | June 28 – July 2, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 50% | 5% |
| Emerson College[146][Z] | June 30 – July 2, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| Marquette University Law School[147] | June 12–20, 2024 | 871 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| 50%[d] | 50% | – | ||||
| 784 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 47% | 44% | 9% | ||
| 51%[d] | 49% | – | ||||
| Emerson College[148] | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| 49%[d] | 51% | – | ||||
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[149] | May 30–31, 2024 | 338 (RV) | ± 5.3% | 40% | 38% | 22%[w] |
| 290 (LV) | 40% | 41% | 19%[x] | |||
| KAConsulting (R)[150][AE] | May 15–19, 2024 | 600 (RV) | – | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| Prime Group[151][AF] | May 9–16, 2024 | 488 (RV) | – | 51% | 49% | – |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[112] | May 7–13, 2024 | 693 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[152] | May 6–13, 2024 | 503 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 45% | 9% |
| The New York Times/Siena College[153] | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 614 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
| 614 (LV) | 46% | 47% | 7% | |||
| Quinnipiac University[154] | May 2–6, 2024 | 1,457 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 50% | 44% | 6% |
| Emerson College[155] | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| 48%[d] | 52% | – | ||||
| Kaplan Strategies[156] | April 20–21, 2024 | 802 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 38% | 48% | 14% |
| John Zogby Strategies[157][AG] | April 13–21, 2024 | 518 (LV) | – | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| CBS News/YouGov[158] | April 19–25, 2024 | 1,226 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 49% | 50% | 1% |
| Fox News[159] | April 11–16, 2024 | 1,198 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[160] | April 8–15, 2024 | 702 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
| Marquette University Law School[161] | April 3–10, 2024 | 814 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| 49%[d] | 51% | – | ||||
| 736 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 45% | 48% | 7% | ||
| 49%[d] | 51% | – | ||||
| North Star Opinion Research (R)[162][AH] | April 6–9, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| The Wall Street Journal[163] | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 46% | 8% |
| Echelon Insights[164][AI] | March 12–19, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 47% | 46% | 7% |
| Emerson College[165] | March 14–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
| 48%[d] | 52% | – | ||||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[166] | March 8–14, 2024 | 697 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[167] | February 12–20, 2024 | 702 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 46% | 12% |
| Emerson College[113] | February 20–24, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 45% | 13% |
| Kaplan Strategies[168] | February 23, 2024 | 941 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 39% | 41% | 20% |
| Marquette University Law School[169] | January 24–31, 2024 | 930 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| 49%[d] | 49% | 2% | ||||
| 808 (LV) | 44% | 46% | 10% | |||
| 49%[d] | 50% | 1% | ||||
| Fox News[170] | January 26–30, 2024 | 1,172 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 47% | 6% |
| Focaldata[171] | January 17–23, 2024 | 863 (A) | – | 38% | 43% | 19%[y] |
| – (LV) | 42% | 46% | 12%[z] | |||
| 49%[d] | 51% | – | ||||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[172] | January 16–21, 2024 | 697 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 49% | 7% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[173] | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 681 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 45% | 14% |
| J.L. Partners[174][AJ] | November 27 – December 1, 2023 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[175] | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| Emerson College[176] | October 30 - November 4, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 44% | 13% |
| 819 (LV) | 45% | 45% | 10% | |||
| The New York Times/Siena College[114] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 603 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
| 603 (LV) | 47% | 45% | 8% | |||
| Marquette University Law School[177] | October 26 – November 2, 2023 | 908 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 45% | 42% | 13% |
| 50%[d] | 48% | 1% | ||||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[178] | October 5–10, 2023 | 700 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
| Emerson College[179] | October 1–4, 2023 | 532 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 40% | 42% | 19% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[180][AK] | September 25–26, 2023 | 673 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 44% | 8% |
| Prime Group[181][AF] | June 14–28, 2023 | 500 (RV) | – | 53% | 47% | – |
| 500 (RV) | – | 37% | 40% | 23%[aa] | ||
| Marquette University Law School[182] | June 8–13, 2023 | 913 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 48% | 38% | 14% |
| 52%[d] | 43% | 4% | ||||
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[183] | April 17–20, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 43% | 9% |
| Emerson College[184] | October 27–29, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| Emerson College[185] | September 16–18, 2022 | 860 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[186][H] | November 11–16, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 52% | 6% |
| Marquette University Law School[187] | October 26–31, 2021 | 805 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[188] | July 16–18, 2024 | 470 (LV) | – | 42% | 42% | 6% | – | 1% | 9%[ab] |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[189] | July 15–17, 2024 | 1,087 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 43% | 46% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 7% |
| Emerson College[139][Z] | July 15–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 46% | 4% | 0% | 1% | 6%[ac] |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[141][AB] | July 5–12, 2024 | 1,020 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 45% | 7% | 0% | 1% | 5%[ac] |
| YouGov[190][A] | July 4–12, 2024 | 900 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 38% | 43% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 13% |
| North Star Opinion Research (R)[B] | July 6–10, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 38% | 11% | – | 3% | 12%[ad] |
| Echelon Insights[142][AC] | July 1–8, 2024 | 617 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 42% | 43% | 6% | 1% | 2% | 6%[ae] |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[143] | July 1–5, 2024 | 695 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 39% | 10% | 1% | 1% | 8% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[145][N] | June 28 – July 2, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 44% | 9% | – | 3% | 6%[ac] |
| Marquette University Law School[147] | June 12–20, 2024 | 871 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 40% | 43% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 3%[ae] |
| 784 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 42% | 44% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 2%[ac] | ||
| Emerson College[148] | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 44% | 6% | 0% | 1% | 7% |
| J.L. Partners[191] | June 5–10, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 44% | 44% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 6% |
| KAConsulting (R)[150][AE] | May 15–19, 2024 | 600 (RV) | – | 42% | 42% | 7% | 1% | 2% | 6%[af] |
| Prime Group[151][AF] | May 9–16, 2024 | 488 (RV) | – | 44% | 44% | 7% | 3% | 2% | – |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[112] | May 7–13, 2024 | 693 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 43% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 7% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[152] | May 6–13, 2024 | 503 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 41% | 41% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 7% |
| The New York Times/Siena College[153] | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 614 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 38% | 9% | 0% | 1% | 14%[ag] |
| 614 (LV) | 39% | 40% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 13%[ag] | |||
| Quinnipiac University[154] | May 2–6, 2024 | 1,457 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 40% | 39% | 12% | 1% | 4% | 4% |
| Emerson College[155] | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 45% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 7% |
| Fox News[159] | April 11–16, 2024 | 1,198 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 41% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 3% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[160] | April 8–15, 2024 | 702 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 44% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 5% |
| Marquette University Law School[161] | April 3–10, 2024 | 814 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 40% | 41% | 13% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| 736 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 41% | 42% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 1% | ||
| North Star Opinion Research (R)[162][AH] | April 6–9, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 37% | 13% | 2% | 4% | 9% |
| The Wall Street Journal[163] | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 38% | 10% | 1% | 1% | 9% |
| Emerson College[165] | March 14–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 43% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 10% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[166] | March 8–14, 2024 | 697 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 41% | 10% | 1% | 1% | 8% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[167] | February 12–20, 2024 | 702 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 35% | 41% | 10% | 1% | 1% | 12% |
| Emerson College[113] | February 20–24, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 41% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 13% |
| Marquette University Law School[169] | January 24–31, 2024 | 930 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 37% | 40% | 16% | 2% | 4% | 1% |
| 808 (LV) | 39% | 41% | 13% | 2% | 4% | 1% | |||
| Fox News[170] | January 26–30, 2024 | 1,172 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 42% | 7% | 1% | 2% | 11% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[192] | January 16–21, 2024 | 697 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 35% | 43% | 10% | 0% | 2% | 10% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[193] | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 681 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 34% | 40% | 10% | 1% | 3% | 13% |
| J.L. Partners[174][AJ] | November 27 – December 1, 2023 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 42% | 37% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 12%[ah] |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civiqs[138][Y] | July 13–16, 2024 | 514 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 47% | 47% | 3% | 3% |
| P2 Insights[194][AL] | June 11–20, 2024 | 650 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 45% | 4% | 9% |
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[149] | May 30–31, 2024 | 338 (RV) | ± 5.3% | 38% | 31% | 13% | 18% |
| 290 (LV) | 40% | 35% | 12% | 13% | |||
| P2 Insights[195][AL] | May 13−21, 2024 | 650 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 44% | 7% | 7% |
| The New York Times/Siena College[196] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 603 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 37% | 35% | 22% | 6% |
| 603 (LV) | 37% | 35% | 21% | 7% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[197] | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 38% | 13% | 2% | 11% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Jill Stein
Hypothetical polling with other candidates
Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[157][AG] | April 13–21, 2024 | 518 (LV) | – | 42% | 48% | 10% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[157][AG] | April 13–21, 2024 | 518 (LV) | – | 41% | 41% | 18% |
Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Gavin Newsom Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[110][V] | July 10–11, 2024 | 548 (RV) | – | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Emerson College[113] | February 20–24, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 45% | 19% |
Gretchen Whitmer vs. Donald Trump
JB Pritzker vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
JB Pritzker Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[110][V] | July 10–11, 2024 | 548 (RV) | – | 47% | 47% | 6% |
Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump
Pete Buttigieg vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Pete Buttigieg Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[110][V] | July 10–11, 2024 | 548 (RV) | – | 47% | 46% | 7% |
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquette University Law School[169] | January 24–31, 2024 | 930 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 33% | 45% | 22% |
| 930 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 41%[d] | 57% | 2% | ||
| 808 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 35% | 46% | 19% | ||
| 808 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 42%[d] | 57% | 1% | ||
| The New York Times/Siena College[198] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 603 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 39% | 52% | 9% |
| 603 (LV) | 39% | 53% | 8% | |||
| Marquette University Law School[177] | October 26 – November 2, 2023 | 908 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 36% | 41% | 23% |
| 44%[d] | 53% | 3% |
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena College[198] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 603 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
| 603 (LV) | 44% | 48% | 8% | |||
| Marquette University Law School[177] | October 26 – November 2, 2023 | 908 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| 48%[d] | 50% | 1% | ||||
| Marquette University Law School[182] | June 8–13, 2023 | 913 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 45% | 43% | 12% |
| 49%[d] | 47% | 4% | ||||
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[199] | April 17–20, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 1,697,626 | 49.60% | +0.78 | ||
| Democratic | 1,668,229 | 48.74% | −0.71 | ||
| Independent |
|
17,740 | 0.52% | N/A | |
| Green | 12,275 | 0.36% | +0.33 | ||
| Libertarian | 10,511 | 0.31% | −0.86 | ||
| Constitution | 4,044 | 0.12% | −0.04 | ||
| Independent | 2,753 | 0.08% | N/A | ||
| Socialism and Liberation | 2,035 | 0.06% | +0.06 | ||
| Independent |
|
561 | 0.02% | −0.14 | |
| Write-in | 7,144 | 0.21% | +0.02 | ||
| Total votes | 3,422,918 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
By county
| County[200] | Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Adams | 7,763 | 60.26% | 4,443 | 34.49% | 676 | 5.25% | 3,320 | 25.77% | 12,882 |
| Ashland | 4,191 | 46.80% | 4,612 | 51.50% | 152 | 1.70% | -421 | -4.70% | 8,955 |
| Barron | 16,726 | 62.39% | 8,941 | 33.35% | 1,142 | 4.26% | 7,785 | 29.04% | 26,809 |
| Bayfield | 4,860 | 43.24% | 6,107 | 54.33% | 273 | 2.43% | -1,247 | -11.09% | 11,240 |
| Brown | 79,132 | 52.99% | 67,937 | 45.49% | 2,264 | 1.52% | 11,195 | 7.50% | 149,333 |
| Buffalo | 5,213 | 64.36% | 2,765 | 34.14% | 122 | 1.51% | 2,448 | 30.22% | 8,100 |
| Burnett | 7,008 | 64.83% | 3,665 | 33.90% | 137 | 1.27% | 3,343 | 30.93% | 10,810 |
| Calumet | 19,488 | 59.21% | 12,927 | 39.27% | 501 | 1.52% | 6,561 | 19.93% | 32,916 |
| Chippewa | 23,399 | 60.82% | 14,573 | 37.88% | 499 | 1.30% | 8,826 | 22.94% | 38,471 |
| Clark | 10,481 | 68.32% | 4,509 | 29.39% | 350 | 2.28% | 5,972 | 38.93% | 15,340 |
| Columbia | 17,988 | 51.52% | 16,388 | 46.94% | 538 | 1.54% | 1,600 | 4.58% | 34,914 |
| Crawford | 5,113 | 56.16% | 3,860 | 42.39% | 132 | 1.45% | 1,253 | 13.76% | 9,105 |
| Dane | 85,454 | 23.35% | 273,995 | 74.88% | 6,480 | 1.77% | -188,541 | -51.52% | 365,929 |
| Dodge | 33,067 | 65.74% | 16,518 | 32.84% | 715 | 1.42% | 16,549 | 32.90% | 50,300 |
| Door | 10,099 | 48.22% | 10,565 | 50.44% | 280 | 1.34% | -466 | -2.22% | 20,944 |
| Douglas | 11,732 | 46.49% | 13,073 | 51.81% | 429 | 1.70% | -1,341 | -5.31% | 25,234 |
| Dunn | 14,726 | 57.35% | 10,643 | 41.45% | 309 | 1.20% | 4,083 | 15.90% | 25,678 |
| Eau Claire | 27,728 | 43.89% | 34,400 | 54.45% | 1,049 | 1.66% | -6,672 | -10.56% | 63,177 |
| Florence | 2,356 | 74.60% | 783 | 24.79% | 19 | 0.60% | 1,573 | 49.81% | 3,158 |
| Fond du Lac | 37,272 | 63.68% | 20,495 | 35.02% | 760 | 1.30% | 16,777 | 28.67% | 58,527 |
| Forest | 3,382 | 66.35% | 1,681 | 32.98% | 34 | 0.67% | 1,701 | 33.37% | 5,097 |
| Grant | 15,922 | 58.31% | 10,966 | 40.16% | 418 | 1.53% | 4,956 | 18.15% | 27,306 |
| Green | 10,843 | 49.12% | 10,903 | 49.39% | 330 | 1.49% | -60 | -0.27% | 22,076 |
| Green Lake | 7,458 | 67.48% | 3,449 | 31.21% | 145 | 1.31% | 4,009 | 36.27% | 11,052 |
| Iowa | 6,631 | 45.18% | 7,750 | 52.80% | 296 | 2.02% | -1,119 | -7.62% | 14,677 |
| Iron | 2,557 | 62.61% | 1,487 | 36.41% | 40 | 0.98% | 1,070 | 26.20% | 4,084 |
| Jackson | 6,204 | 59.07% | 4,157 | 39.58% | 141 | 1.34% | 2,047 | 19.49% | 10,502 |
| Jefferson | 28,771 | 57.37% | 20,574 | 41.03% | 801 | 1.60% | 8,197 | 16.35% | 50,146 |
| Juneau | 9,525 | 65.45% | 4,854 | 33.35% | 174 | 1.20% | 4,671 | 32.10% | 14,553 |
| Kenosha | 47,478 | 52.36% | 41,826 | 46.12% | 1,376 | 1.52% | 5,652 | 6.23% | 90,680 |
| Kewaunee | 8,267 | 66.22% | 4,059 | 32.51% | 158 | 1.27% | 4,208 | 33.71% | 12,484 |
| La Crosse | 32,247 | 44.63% | 39,008 | 53.98% | 1,006 | 1.39% | -6,761 | -9.36% | 72,261 |
| Lafayette | 5,256 | 59.51% | 3,469 | 39.28% | 107 | 1.21% | 1,787 | 20.23% | 8,832 |
| Langlade | 7,782 | 66.72% | 3,746 | 32.12% | 136 | 1.17% | 4,036 | 34.60% | 11,664 |
| Lincoln | 10,633 | 61.79% | 6,306 | 36.64% | 270 | 1.57% | 4,327 | 25.14% | 17,209 |
| Manitowoc | 28,200 | 60.89% | 17,399 | 37.57% | 717 | 1.55% | 10,801 | 23.32% | 46,316 |
| Marathon | 46,213 | 58.63% | 31,529 | 40.00% | 1,084 | 1.38% | 14,684 | 18.63% | 78,826 |
| Marinette | 16,670 | 68.28% | 7,415 | 30.37% | 330 | 1.35% | 9,255 | 37.91% | 24,415 |
| Marquette | 6,041 | 64.08% | 3,252 | 34.50% | 134 | 1.42% | 2,789 | 29.59% | 9,427 |
| Menominee | 296 | 18.83% | 1,266 | 80.53% | 10 | 0.64% | -970 | -61.70% | 1,572 |
| Milwaukee | 138,022 | 29.74% | 316,292 | 68.15% | 9,793 | 2.11% | -178,270 | -38.41% | 464,107 |
| Monroe | 14,563 | 62.32% | 8,476 | 36.27% | 330 | 1.41% | 6,087 | 26.05% | 23,369 |
| Oconto | 17,675 | 70.95% | 6,967 | 27.97% | 270 | 1.08% | 10,708 | 42.98% | 24,912 |
| Oneida | 14,455 | 58.06% | 10,080 | 40.49% | 360 | 1.45% | 4,375 | 17.57% | 24,895 |
| Outagamie | 60,827 | 54.34% | 49,438 | 44.17% | 1,667 | 1.49% | 11,389 | 10.17% | 111,932 |
| Ozaukee | 34,504 | 54.36% | 27,874 | 43.92% | 1,094 | 1.72% | 6,630 | 10.45% | 63,472 |
| Pepin | 2,798 | 64.26% | 1,523 | 34.98% | 33 | 0.76% | 1,275 | 29.28% | 4,354 |
| Pierce | 14,417 | 56.78% | 10,171 | 40.06% | 804 | 3.17% | 4,246 | 16.72% | 25,392 |
| Polk | 18,296 | 64.83% | 9,567 | 33.90% | 359 | 1.27% | 8,729 | 30.93% | 28,222 |
| Portage | 20,987 | 48.52% | 21,503 | 49.71% | 768 | 1.78% | -516 | -1.19% | 43,258 |
| Price | 5,763 | 65.07% | 3,005 | 33.93% | 88 | 0.99% | 2,758 | 31.14% | 8,856 |
| Racine | 56,347 | 52.33% | 49,721 | 46.17% | 1,618 | 1.50% | 6,626 | 6.15% | 107,686 |
| Richland | 5,207 | 55.85% | 3,985 | 42.74% | 131 | 1.41% | 1,222 | 13.11% | 9,323 |
| Rock | 40,218 | 45.54% | 46,642 | 52.82% | 1,450 | 1.64% | -6,424 | -7.27% | 88,310 |
| Rusk | 5,660 | 68.44% | 2,516 | 30.42% | 94 | 1.14% | 3,144 | 38.02% | 8,270 |
| Sauk | 18,798 | 50.02% | 18,172 | 48.35% | 614 | 1.63% | 626 | 1.67% | 37,584 |
| Sawyer | 6,422 | 57.65% | 4,599 | 41.28% | 119 | 1.07% | 1,823 | 16.36% | 11,140 |
| Shawano | 15,850 | 67.45% | 7,336 | 31.22% | 314 | 1.34% | 8,514 | 36.23% | 23,500 |
| Sheboygan | 38,763 | 57.37% | 27,735 | 41.05% | 1,064 | 1.57% | 11,028 | 16.32% | 67,562 |
| St. Croix | 35,537 | 58.60% | 23,870 | 39.36% | 1,235 | 2.04% | 11,667 | 19.24% | 60,642 |
| Taylor | 8,209 | 73.39% | 2,823 | 25.24% | 154 | 1.38% | 5,386 | 48.15% | 11,186 |
| Trempealeau | 9,661 | 60.08% | 6,219 | 38.68% | 199 | 1.24% | 3,442 | 21.41% | 16,079 |
| Vernon | 8,807 | 53.03% | 7,514 | 45.24% | 288 | 1.73% | 1,293 | 7.78% | 16,609 |
| Vilas | 9,837 | 60.97% | 6,119 | 37.92% | 179 | 1.11% | 3,718 | 23.04% | 16,135 |
| Walworth | 36,603 | 60.40% | 23,161 | 38.22% | 833 | 1.37% | 13,442 | 22.18% | 60,597 |
| Washburn | 6,962 | 63.42% | 3,867 | 35.22% | 149 | 1.36% | 3,095 | 28.19% | 10,978 |
| Washington | 61,604 | 67.40% | 28,504 | 31.18% | 1,299 | 1.42% | 33,100 | 36.21% | 91,407 |
| Waukesha | 162,768 | 59.02% | 108,478 | 39.33% | 4,541 | 1.65% | 54,290 | 19.69% | 275,787 |
| Waupaca | 20,093 | 66.09% | 9,947 | 32.72% | 363 | 1.19% | 10,146 | 33.37% | 30,403 |
| Waushara | 9,625 | 67.01% | 4,571 | 31.82% | 167 | 1.16% | 5,054 | 35.19% | 14,363 |
| Winnebago | 49,179 | 51.57% | 44,660 | 46.83% | 1,532 | 1.61% | 4,519 | 4.74% | 95,371 |
| Wood | 24,997 | 59.21% | 16,599 | 39.32% | 620 | 1.47% | 8,398 | 19.89% | 42,216 |
| Totals | 1,697,626 | 49.60% | 1,668,229 | 48.74% | 57,063 | 1.67% | 29,397 | 0.86% | 3,422,918 |
County that flipped from Democratic to Republican
By congressional district
Trump won six of eight congressional districts.[201]
| District | Harris | Trump | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 46.89% | 51.39% | Bryan Steil |
| 2nd | 69.16% | 29.12% | Mark Pocan |
| 3rd | 45.46% | 52.84% | Derrick Van Orden |
| 4th | 74.68% | 23.28% | Gwen Moore |
| 5th | 38.15% | 60.24% | Scott L. Fitzgerald |
| 6th | 41.02% | 57.46% | Glenn Grothman |
| 7th | 37.94% | 60.40% | Tom Tiffany |
| 8th | 41.17% | 57.40% | Tony Wied |
See also
Notes
- Candidate has suspended campaign, but will stay on the ballot.
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- "Other" with 3%
- "Other" with 2%
- "Someone else" with 1%
- "Another Candidate" with 1%
- "Another Party's Candidate" with 1%
- "A third party / Independent candidate" with 4%
- "Some other candidate" with 2%
- "Some other candidate" with 1%
- "Another Party's Candidate" with 2%
- "Other" with 1%
- "Will not vote" with 4%
- Randall Terry (C) & Claudia De la Cruz (PSL) with 0% each
- Kennedy suspended his campaign, but he remains on the ballot in Wisconsin.
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Randall Terry (C) with 1%; Claudia De la Cruz (PSL) with 0%
- Randall Terry (C) with 0%
- Randall Terry (C) with 1%
- "Will not vote" with 4%
- "Another candidate" with 12%
- "Another candidate" with 11%
- "Another candidate" with 13%
- "Another candidate" with 9%
- Chase Oliver (L) with 0%
- Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
- Chase Oliver (L) with 2%; "Other" with 1%
- Chase Oliver (L) with 2%
- Lars Mapstead (L) with 1%
- Lars Mapstead (L) with 0%
- "Someone else" with 12%
- Listed on the ballot without party affiliation.
- Sonski and Onak were nominated by the American Solidarity Party, but registered as independent write-in candidates because the party was not recognized by the Wisconsin Secretary of State.
Partisan clients
- Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
- Poll sponsored by American Greatness
- Poll sponsored by Trending Politics
- Poll sponsored by On Point Politics & Red Eagle Politics
- Poll sponsored by American Thinker
- Poll sponsored by RealClearWorld
- Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
- Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
- Poll sponsored by Fields of Freedom Alliance
- Poll conducted for the Article III Project
- Poll sponsored by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation
- Poll sponsored by Focus on Rural America
- Poll sponsored by Wisconsin Watch
- Poll conducted for the Cato Institute
- Poll sponsored by Platform Communications
- Poll conducted for the Pinpoint Policy Institute
- Poll sponsored by the American Principles Project
- Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA
- Poll conducted for The Independent Center
- Poll conducted for Competitiveness Coalition
- Poll conducted for Progress Action Fund, which supports Democratic candidates
- Poll sponsored by the Senate Opportunity Fund
- Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republican candidates
- Poll conducted for Rust Belt Rising, which supports Democratic candidates
- Poll sponsored by Democrats for the Next Generation PAC
- Poll conducted for Protect Our Care
- Poll sponsored by The Heartland Institute
- Poll sponsored by NetChoice
- Poll sponsored by On Point Politics
- Poll conducted for Vapor Technology Association
- Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC, which opposes Trump and third party candidates
- Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
- Poll sponsored by League of American Workers
- Poll sponsored by The Heritage Foundation
- Poll sponsored by The Daily Mail
- Poll commissioned by Save My Country Action Fund
- Poll sponsored by Building America's Future, which supports Republican candidates