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2026 United States Senate election in Iowa

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The 2026 United States Senate election in Iowa will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Iowa. Republican congresswoman Ashley Hinson and Democratic state representative Josh Turek are the nominees for their respective parties. Republican incumbent Joni Ernst is not seeking a third term.[1]

Quick facts Nominee, Party ...
2026 United States Senate election in Iowa
← 2020
November 3, 2026
2032 →
 
Nominee Ashley Hinson Josh Turek
Party Republican Democratic
Incumbent U.S. senator

Joni Ernst
Republican


Close

Primary elections were held on June 2. Endorsed by President Donald Trump, Hinson won the Republican nomination with 73.9% of the vote over former state senator Jim Carlin. Turek won the Democratic nomination with 62.6% of the vote over state senator Zach Wahls.

Democrats have not won a Senate election in Iowa since 2008. This is Iowa's first open Senate election to be held concurrently with an open gubernatorial election since 1968.[2]

Background

Since voting for President Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012, Iowa has trended increasingly Republican and is now considered a moderately to strongly red state at the federal and state level. Republican nominee Donald Trump won Iowa in 2020 by 8 percentage points, and in 2024 grew his margin to 13 percentage points. Republicans control every statewide executive office (except the state auditor's office), majorities in both chambers of the state legislature, and the entire congressional delegation.[3]

Senator Joni Ernst was first elected in the red wave of 2014, defeating U.S. Representative Bruce Braley by about 8 percentage points. She was re-elected in 2020 defeating Theresa Greenfield by 6.5 percentage points in what was expected to be a dead heat.[4][5]

In May 2025, Ernst sparked controversy after replying to a constituent upset by thousands of preventable deaths resulting from Medicaid cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act by responding, "Well, we all are going to die" during a town hall in north-central Iowa.[6] She later doubled down on her controversial comment, which many observers criticized as dismissive, in a sarcastic social media apology video filmed in a cemetery.[7] Ernst announced in September 2025 that she would not seek reelection.[1]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Jim Carlin
Executive branch officials
State legislators
Ashley Hinson
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Organizations

Fundraising

Italics indicate a declined candidate.

More information Campaign finance reports as of April 18, 2026, Candidate ...
Campaign finance reports as of April 18, 2026
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Jim Carlin (R) $293,966 $279,387 $14,578
Ashley Hinson (R) $7,267,266 $2,679,198 $6,516,143
Joni Ernst (R) $6,954,692 $5,485,942 $1,997,164
Source: Federal Election Commission[35]
Close

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[a]		 Margin
of error		 Ashley
Hinson		 Jim
Carlin		 Undecided
JMC Analytics (R)[36] May 27–28, 2026 550 (A) ± 4.2% 58% 19% 23%
Close
Hypothetical polling

Joni Ernst vs. "Someone Else"

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[a]		 Margin
of error		 Joni
Ernst		 Someone
Else		 Undecided
Victory Insights (R)[37] December 6–7, 2024 600 (LV) – 48% 27% 26%
Close

Results

Primary results by county:
  Hinson
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
More information Party, Candidate ...
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Ashley Hinson 153,059 74.2
Republican Jim Carlin 53,196 25.8
Total votes 206,255 100.0
Close

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Did not file

Withdrawn

Endorsements

Josh Turek
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Party officials
Individuals
  • Nathan Sage, market director for KNIA and former candidate for this seat[44]
Organizations
Labor unions
Zach Wahls
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
  • 3 current state senators[e]
  • 4 former state senators[f]
  • 3 current state representatives[g]
  • 3 former state representatives[h]
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Jackie Norris (withdrawn)
Statewide officials
State legislators
Local officials

Fundraising

Italics indicate withdrawn candidate

More information Campaign finance reports as of April 18, 2026, Candidate ...
Campaign finance reports as of April 18, 2026
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Nathan Sage (D) $1,432,562 $1,432,459 $102
Josh Turek (D) $2,808,701 $2,051,221 $757,480
Zach Wahls (D) $3,167,670 $2,112,265 $1,055,405
Jackie Norris (D) $363,563 $363,563 $0
J. D. Scholten (D) $213,415 $205,271 $8,144
Source: Federal Election Commission[35]
Close

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[a]		 Margin
of error		 Josh
Turek		 Zach
Wahls		 Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[72][A] May 20–21, 2026 672 (LV) ± 3.8% 52% 31% – 17%
Public Policy Polling (D)[73][B] May 5–6, 2026 764 (LV) ± 3.6% 53% 27% – 20%
Public Policy Polling (D)[73][B] April 23, 2026 – (LV) – 41% 23% – 36%
FM3 Research (D)[74][A] April 21–23, 2026 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 28% – 24%
Bedrock Polling[75][C] March 26, 2026 1,022 (LV) ± 3.2% 38% 56% – 6%
FM3 Research (D)[74][A] March 11–14, 2026 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 25% 34% – 41%
GQR (D)[76][D] February 18–22, 2026 605 (LV) – 24% 42% – 34%
NRSC (R)[77] February 16–18, 2026 1,923 (LV) ± 2.5% 23% 30% 5%[i] 42%
Close

Results

Primary results by county:
  Turek
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Wahls
  •   50–60%
More information Party, Candidate ...
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Josh Turek 120,287 62.7
Democratic Zach Wahls 71,663 37.3
Total votes 191,950 100.0
Close

Libertarian primary

On June 2, the Laehn campaign submitted nearly 10,000 signatures to the Iowa Secretary of State, satisfying the 3,500 signature requirement to qualify for the ballot.[78] Laehn was added to the candidate list as the Libertarian Party's candidate.[79]

Candidates

Nominee

Fundraising

More information Campaign finance reports as of April 18, 2026, Candidate ...
Campaign finance reports as of April 18, 2026
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Thomas Laehn (L) $42,944 $37,430 $5,513
Source: Federal Election Commission[35]
Close

General election

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[81] Tossup September 23, 2026
Decision Desk HQ[82] Tossup September 25, 2026
The Economist[83][j] Tossup September 26, 2026
FiftyPlusOne[84] Tossup September 26, 2026
Fox News[85] Tossup September 22, 2026
Inside Elections[86] Tilt R September 17, 2026
RealClearPolitics[87] Tossup September 24, 2026
Sabato's Crystal Ball[88] Tossup September 22, 2026
Silver Bulletin[89] Lean D (flip) September 23, 2026
Split Ticket[90] Tossup September 25, 2026
Close

Post-primary endorsements

Ashley Hinson (R)
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Individuals
Organizations
Political parties
Josh Turek (D)
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Political parties
Declined to endorse
State legislators

Fundraising

More information Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2026, Candidate ...
Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2026
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Ashley Hinson (R) $10,217,845 $5,396,429 $6,749,491
Josh Turek (D) $6,276,527 $3,914,213 $2,362,314
Thomas Laehn (L) $54,429 $46,095 $8,334
Source: Federal Election Commission[35]
Close

Polling

Aggregate polls

More information Source of poll aggregation, Dates administered ...
Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Ashley
Hinson (R)		 Josh
Turek (D)		 Other/Undecided
[k]		 Margin
270toWin[125] September 11–26, 2026 September 27, 2026 43.6% 45.2% 11.2% Turek +1.6%
Decision Desk HQ[126] through September 23, 2026 September 27, 2026 43.7% 45.7% 11.7% Turek +2.0%
FiftyPlusOne[127] through September 23, 2026 September 27, 2026 44.7% 45.6% 9.7% Turek +0.9%
RealClearPolitics[128] August 31 – September 23, 2026 September 27, 2026 44.5% 45.0% 10.5% Turek +0.5%
Silver Bulletin[89] through September 23, 2026 September 27, 2026 44.3% 46.2% 9.5% Turek +1.9%
Average 44.2% 45.5% 10.3% Turek +1.3%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[a]		 Margin
of error		 Ashley
Hinson (R)		 Josh
Turek (D)		 Other Undecided
Quantus Insights (R)[129] September 28–29, 2026 738 (LV) ± 3.8% 47% 46% 2%[l] 5%
49%[m] 47% – 4%
51%[n] 49% – –
InsiderAdvantage (R)[130] September 22–23, 2026 1,200 (LV) ± 2.8% 46% 47% 3%[o] 4%
Marist University[131] September 17–20, 2026 1,050 (RV) ± 4.4% 42% 50% 2% 5%
Trafalgar Group (R)[132] September 16–18, 2026 1,089 (LV) ± 2.9% 44% 42% 3%[p] 10%
co/efficient (R)[133] September 14–16, 2026 831 (LV) ± 3.4% 46% 42% 2%[q] 9%
48% 43% – 9%
Cygnal (R)[134][E] September 9–11, 2026 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 43% 43% 4%[r] 10%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[135] September 8–10, 2026 1,031 (LV) ± 3.0% 40% 45% 4%[s] 11%
YouGov[136] September 3–8, 2026 2,169 (RV) ± 3.5% 43% 44% 3%[t] 11%
2,041 (LV) ± 3.5% 43% 47% 1%[u] 8%
Emerson College[137] August 31 – September 1, 2026 750 (LV) ± 3.6% 50% 45% 1%[v] 5%
Global Strategy Group (D)[138][B] August 27–31, 2026 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 46% 6%[w] 6%
Wedgewood Polls[139] August 27–29, 2026 600 (LV) ± 4.6% 50% 48% — 2%
Abacus Data[140] August 26–28, 2026 323 (LV) — 45% 54% 1%[x] —
500 (RV) ± 4.4% 46% 52% 2%[y] —
Suffolk University[141] August 20–23, 2026 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 41% 4%[z] 10%
Emerson College[142] August 2–4, 2026 712 (LV) ± 3.7% 48% 45% — 6%
Beacon Research (D)/
Shaw & Co. Research (R)[143][F]		 June 23–27, 2026 1,003 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 50% — 4%
New York Times/Siena University[144] June 15–27, 2026 600 (LV) ± 4.7% 48% 46% — 5%
Cygnal (R)[145][G] June 16–19, 2026 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 44% — 10%
Global Strategy Group (D)[146][B] June 8–11, 2026 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 45% 47% — 8%
Public Policy Polling (D)[147][H] June 3–4, 2026 557 (RV) ± 4.2% 46% 46% — 7%
June 2, 2026 Primary elections
Echelon Insights (R)[148][I] April 3–9, 2026 377 (LV) ± 6.6% 45% 46% — 9%
GQR (D)[149][B] March 10–16, 2026 1,200 (LV) ± 2.8% 47% 43% — 11%
Change Research (D)[150][151] January 8–11, 2026 1,108 (LV) — 44% 41% 1%[aa] 14%
Close
Hypothetical polling

Ashley Hinson vs. Nathan Sage

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[a]		 Margin
of error		 Ashley
Hinson (R)		 Nathan
Sage (D)		 Other Undecided
Change Research (D)[150][151] January 8–11, 2026 1,108 (LV) — 44% 41% 1%[aa] 14%
Close

Ashley Hinson vs. Zach Wahls

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[a]		 Margin
of error		 Ashley
Hinson (R)		 Zach
Wahls (D)		 Other Undecided
Echelon Insights (R)[148][I] April 3–9, 2026 377 (LV) ± 6.6% 44% 46% — 10%
GQR (D)[149][B] March 10–16, 2026 1,200 (LV) ± 2.8% 47% 44% — 9%
Change Research (D)[150][151] January 8–11, 2026 1,108 (LV) — 44% 41% 2%[ab] 13%
Close

Joni Ernst vs. Jackie Norris

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[a]		 Margin
of error		 Joni
Ernst (R)		 Jackie
Norris (D)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[152][D] August 18–19, 2025 572 (V) ± 4.1% 45% 42% 13%
Close

Joni Ernst vs. Nathan Sage

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[a]		 Margin
of error		 Joni
Ernst (R)		 Nathan
Sage (D)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[152][D] August 18–19, 2025 572 (V) ± 4.1% 45% 41% 14%
Close

Joni Ernst vs. Josh Turek

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[a]		 Margin
of error		 Joni
Ernst (R)		 Josh
Turek (D)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[152][D] August 18–19, 2025 572 (V) ± 4.1% 45% 41% 14%
Close

Joni Ernst vs. Zach Wahls

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[a]		 Margin
of error		 Joni
Ernst (R)		 Zach
Wahls (D)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[152][D] August 18–19, 2025 572 (V) ± 4.1% 43% 42% 15%
Close

Joni Ernst vs. Generic Democrat

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[a]		 Margin
of error		 Joni
Ernst (R)		 Generic
Democrat		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[153][154][J] June 2–3, 2025 568 (V) ± 4.1% 45% 43% 12%
Close

Generic Republican vs. Generic Democrat

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[a]		 Margin
of error		 Generic
Republican		 Generic
Democrat		 Undecided
co/efficient (R)[133] September 14–16, 2026 831 (LV) ± 3.4% 48% 43% 9%
Close

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
2026 United States Senate election in Iowa
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Ashley Hinson
Democratic Josh Turek
Libertarian Thomas Laehn
Write-in
Total votes 100.0
Close

Notes

  1. [a]
    Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. [b]
  3. [c]
  4. [d]
  5. [e]
  6. [f]
  7. [g]
  8. [h]
  9. [i]
    "Someone else" with 5%
  10. [j]
    The Economist's prediction model uses unconventional terminology. For the purpose of equivalency, their "Very Likely" ratings are formatted as a "Likely" rating while "Likely" ratings are formatted as a "Lean" rating.
  11. [k]
    Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  12. [l]
    Thomas Laehn (L) with 2%
  13. [m]
    Leaners pushed
  14. [n]
    Two-way
  15. [o]
    Thomas Laehn (L) with 2%, "Another candidate" with 1%
  16. [p]
    Thomas Laehn (L) with 3%
  17. [q]
    Thomas Laehn (L) with 2%
  18. [r]
    Thomas Laehn (L) with 4%
  19. [s]
    Thomas Laehn (L) with 4%
  20. [t]
    "Someone else" with 1%
    "I will not vote in this race" with 2%
  21. [u]
    "Someone else" with 1%
  22. [v]
    Thomas Laehn (L) with 1%
  23. [w]
    Thomas Laehn (L) with 6%
  24. [x]
    "Another candidate" with 1%
  25. [y]
    "Another candidate" with 2%
  26. [z]
    Thomas Laehn (L) with 4%
  27. [aa]
    "Would not vote" with 1%
  28. [ab]
    "Would not vote" with 2%

Partisan clients

  1. [A]
    Poll commissioned by VoteVets, which supports Turek
  2. [B]
    Poll sponsored by Turek's campaign
  3. [C]
    Poll sponsored by Teamsters Local 238
  4. [D]
    Poll sponsored by Wahls's campaign
  5. [E]
    Poll sponsored by the Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation
  6. [F]
    Poll conducted for Fox News
  7. [G]
    Poll sponsored by Iowans for Tax Relief
  8. [H]
    Poll conducted for the DSCC
  9. [I]
    Poll commissioned by NetChoice
  10. [J]
    Poll sponsored by Senate Majority PAC, which supports Democratic candidates

References

External links

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Timelines

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