2026 United States Senate election in Iowa
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2026 United States Senate election in Iowa will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Iowa. Republican congresswoman Ashley Hinson and Democratic state representative Josh Turek are the nominees for their respective parties. Republican incumbent Joni Ernst is not seeking a third term.[1]
.jpg)
 | |||||||||||
November 3, 2026
| |||||||||||
| |||||||||||
| |||||||||||
.jpg)
Primary elections were held on June 2, 2026. Endorsed by President Donald Trump, Hinson won the Republican nomination with 73.9% of the vote over former state senator Jim Carlin. Turek won the Democratic nomination with 62.6% of the vote over state senator Zach Wahls.
Democrats have not won a Senate election in Iowa since 2008. This is Iowa's first open Senate election to be held concurrently with an open gubernatorial election since 1968.[2]
Background
Since voting for President Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012, Iowa has trended increasingly Republican and is now considered a moderately to strongly red state at the federal and state level. Republican nominee Donald Trump won Iowa in 2020 by 8 percentage points, and in 2024 grew his margin to 13 percentage points. Republicans control every statewide executive office (except the state auditor's office), majorities in both chambers of the state legislature, and the entire congressional delegation.[3]
Senator Joni Ernst was first elected in the red wave of 2014, defeating U.S. Representative Bruce Braley by about 8 percentage points. She was re-elected in 2020 defeating Theresa Greenfield by 6.5 percentage points in what was expected to be a dead heat.[4][5]
In May 2025, Ernst sparked controversy after replying to a constituent upset by thousands of preventable deaths resulting from Medicaid cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act by responding, "Well, we all are going to die" during a town hall in north-central Iowa.[6] She later doubled down on her controversial comment, which many observers criticized as dismissive, in a sarcastic social media apology video filmed in a cemetery.[7] Ernst announced in September 2025 that she would not seek reelection.[1]
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Ashley Hinson, U.S. representative from Iowa's 2nd congressional district (2021–present)[8]
Eliminated in primary
- Jim Carlin, former state senator from the 3rd district (2017–2023) and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[9]
Withdrawn
- Joshua Smith, former vice chair of the Libertarian National Committee (2022–2023) and Libertarian candidate for president in 2024[10]
Declined
- Brenna Bird, Iowa attorney general (2023–present) (running for re-election; endorsed Hinson)[11]
- Joni Ernst, incumbent U.S. senator (2015–present)[1] (endorsed Hinson)[12]
- Kari Lake, senior advisor to the U.S. Agency for Global Media (2025–present), nominee for Governor of Arizona in 2022, and nominee for U.S. Senate in Arizona in 2024[13]
- Zach Nunn, U.S. representative from Iowa's 3rd congressional district (2023–present) (running for re-election; endorsed Hinson),[14][15]
Endorsements
Jim Carlin
- State legislators
- Kevin Alons, SD-07 (2023–present)[16]
- Doug Campbell, SD-30 (2023–present)[16]
- Mark Cisneros, HD-91 (2021–present)[17]
- Samantha Fett, HD-22 (2025–present)[18]
- Sandy Salmon, SD-29 (2023–present)[16]
Ashley Hinson
- Executive branch officials
- Terry Branstad, former U.S. ambassador to China (2017–2020) and governor of Iowa (1983–1999, 2011–2017)[17]
- Markwayne Mullin, U.S. secretary of homeland security (2026–present)[19]
- Donald Trump, president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)[20]
- U.S. senators
- Jim Banks, Indiana (2025–present)[19]
- Katie Britt, Alabama (2023–present)[19]
- Shelley Moore Capito, West Virginia (2015–present)[21]
- Tom Cotton, Arkansas (2015–present)[21]
- Joni Ernst, Iowa (2015–present)[22]
- Chuck Grassley, president pro tempore (2019–2021, 2025–present) from Iowa (1981–present)[23]
- Dave McCormick, Pennsylvania (2025–present)[21]
- Jerry Moran, Kansas (2011–present)[21]
- Tim Scott, South Carolina (2013–present)[21]
- John Thune, Senate majority leader (2025–present) from South Dakota (2005–present)[21]
- U.S. representatives
- Tom Emmer, House majority whip (2023–present) from MN-6 (2015–present)[19]
- Mariannette Miller-Meeks, IA-1 (2021–present)[24]
- Zach Nunn, IA-3 (2023–present)[15]
- Steve Scalise, House majority leader (2023–present) from LA-1 (2008–present)[19]
- Elise Stefanik, NY-21 (2015–present)[19]
- Statewide officials
- Brenna Bird, attorney general of Iowa (2023–present)[25]
- Mike Naig, Iowa secretary of agriculture (2018–present)[25]
- Paul Pate, secretary of state of Iowa (1995–1999, 2015–present)[26]
- Kim Reynolds, governor of Iowa (2017–present)[27]
- State legislators
- Bobby Kaufmann, majority leader of the Iowa House of Representatives (2025–present) from HD-82 (2013–present)[19]
- Organizations
Fundraising
Italics indicate a declined candidate.
| Campaign finance reports as of April 18, 2026 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Jim Carlin (R) | $293,966 | $279,387 | $14,578 |
| Ashley Hinson (R) | $7,267,266 | $2,679,198 | $6,516,143 |
| Joni Ernst (R) | $6,954,692 | $5,485,942 | $1,997,164 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[32] | |||
Polling
Results
Hinson
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Ashley Hinson | 153,181 | 73.9 | |
| Republican | Jim Carlin | 54,178 | 26.1 | |
| Total votes | 207,359 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Josh Turek, state representative from the 20th district (2023–present)[35]
Eliminated in primary
- Zach Wahls, state senator from the 43rd district (2019–present) and former Senate Minority Leader (2020–2023)[36]
Did not file
- Bob Krause, former state representative from the 7th district (1973–1978) and perennial candidate[37]
- Richard Sherzan, former state representative from the 63rd district (1979–1981) and candidate for U.S. Senate in Arizona in 2016 and 2018[38]
Withdrawn
- Jackie Norris, chair of the Des Moines school board and former Chief of Staff to the First Lady of the United States (2009–2011)[39]
- Nathan Sage, market director for KNIA[40] (endorsed Turek)[41]
- J. D. Scholten, state representative from the 1st district (2023–present) and nominee for Iowa's 4th congressional district in 2018 and 2020 (endorsed Turek)[42]
Declined
- Rob Sand, Iowa Auditor of State (2019–present) (running for governor)[43]
Endorsements
Josh Turek
- Executive branch officials
- Pete Buttigieg, former secretary of transportation (2021–2025)[44]
- U.S. senators
- Bob Casey Jr., former Pennsylvania (2007–2025)[45]
- Catherine Cortez Masto, Nevada (2017–present)[45]
- Tammy Duckworth, Illinois (2017–present)[46]
- Tom Harkin, former Iowa (1985–2015)[47]
- Maggie Hassan, New Hampshire (2017–present)[45]
- U.S. representatives
- Tony Coelho, former House majority whip (1987–1989) from CA-15 (1979–1989)[48]
- Ro Khanna, CA-17 (2017–present)[49]
- Statewide officials
- Tom Miller, former attorney general of Iowa (1979–1991, 1995–2023)[16]
- Sally Pederson, former lieutenant governor of Iowa (1999–2007) (previously endorsed Norris)[50]
- State legislators
- Robert Dvorsky, former SD-37 (1995–2019)[51]
- Michael Gronstal, former Senate majority leader (2006–2017) from SD-08 (1985–2017)[52]
- Pam Jochum, former Senate president (2013–2017) from SD-36 (2009–2025)[51]
- Jennifer Konfrst, former House minority leader (2021–2025) from HD-32 (2019–present)[48]
- J. D. Scholten, HD-01 (2023–present) and former candidate for this seat[42]
- 2 state senators[b]
- 11 other state representatives[c]
- 8 former state representatives[d]
- Party officials
- Andy McGuire, former chair of the Iowa Democratic Party (2015–2017)[53]
- Individuals
- Organizations
- Labor unions
- Heat and Frost Insulators Local 39[55]
- United Food and Commercial Workers Local 222IN[56]
Zach Wahls
- U.S. senators
- Elizabeth Warren, Massachusetts (2013–present)[57]
- U.S. representatives
- Dave Loebsack, former IA-2 (2007–2021)[58]
- Statewide officials
- Howard Dean, former governor of Vermont (1991–2003) and chair of the DNC (2005–2009)[58]
- Patty Judge, former lieutenant governor of Iowa (2007–2011)[58]
- Jason Kander, former secretary of state of Missouri (2013–2017)[59]
- State legislators
- 3 current state senators[e]
- 4 former state senators[f]
- 3 current state representatives[g]
- 3 former state representatives[h]
- Individuals
- Tim Dwight, former NFL and University of Iowa football player[58]
- Fred Hubbell, nominee for governor of Iowa in 2018[60]
- Labor unions
- Central Iowa Building & Construction Trades Council[61]
- Cedar Rapids/Iowa City Building & Construction Trades Council[62]
- Communications Workers of America Local 7110[50]
- Ironworkers Locals 67, 89 & 111[50][63][64]
- International Association of Fire Fighters Local 610[65]
- International Union of Elevator Constructors Local 28[66]
- Teamsters Local 90[51]
- United Food and Commercial Workers Local 1846[59]
- Heat and Frost Insulators Local 81[55]
- UA Plumbers & Pipefitters Local 125[62]
- Organizations
Jackie Norris (withdrawn)
- Statewide officials
- Sally Pederson, former lieutenant governor of Iowa (1999–2007) (later endorsed Turek)[65]
- State legislators
- Tony Bisignano, SD-15 (2015–present)[65]
- Claire Celsi, former SD-16 (2019–2025) (deceased)[65]
- Local officials
- Connie Boesen, mayor of Des Moines (2024–present)[65]
Fundraising
Italics indicate withdrawn candidate
| Campaign finance reports as of April 18, 2026 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Nathan Sage (D) | $1,432,562 | $1,432,459 | $102 |
| Josh Turek (D) | $2,808,701 | $2,051,221 | $757,480 |
| Zach Wahls (D) | $3,167,670 | $2,112,265 | $1,055,405 |
| Jackie Norris (D) | $363,563 | $363,563 | $0 |
| J. D. Scholten (D) | $213,415 | $205,271 | $8,144 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[32] | |||
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Josh Turek |
Zach Wahls |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[68][A] | May 20–21, 2026 | 672 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 52% | 31% | – | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[69][B] | May 5–6, 2026 | 764 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 53% | 27% | – | 20% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[69][B] | April 23, 2026 | – (LV) | – | 41% | 23% | – | 36% |
| FM3 Research (D)[70][A] | April 21–23, 2026 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 28% | – | 24% |
| Bedrock Polling[71][C] | March 26, 2026 | 1,022 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 38% | 56% | – | 6% |
| FM3 Research (D)[70][A] | March 11–14, 2026 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 25% | 34% | – | 41% |
| GQR (D)[72][D] | February 18–22, 2026 | 605 (LV) | – | 24% | 42% | – | 34% |
| NRSC (R)[73] | February 16–18, 2026 | 1,923 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 23% | 30% | 5%[i] | 42% |
Results
Turek
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
Wahls
- 50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Josh Turek | 120,448 | 62.6 | |
| Democratic | Zach Wahls | 71,884 | 37.4 | |
| Total votes | 192,332 | 100.0 | ||
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Declared
- Thomas Laehn, Greene County Attorney[74]
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of April 18, 2026 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Thomas Laehn (L) | $42,944 | $37,430 | $5,513 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[32] | |||
Results
On June 2, the Laehn campaign submitted nearly 10,000 signatures to the Iowa Secretary of State, satisfying the 3,500 signature requirement to qualify for the ballot.[75] Laehn was added to the candidate list as the Libertarian Party's candidate.[76]
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Inside Elections[77] | Lean R | June 25, 2026 |
| Race To The WH[78] | Tossup | June 22, 2026 |
| RealClearPolitics[79] | Tossup | May 19, 2026 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[80] | Lean R | June 2, 2026 |
| The Cook Political Report[81] | Lean R | June 2, 2026 |
| The Economist[82][j] | Lean R | June 4, 2026 |
Post-primary endorsements
Ashley Hinson (R)
Josh Turek (D)
- State legislators
- Zach Wahls, former Senate minority leader (2020–2023) from SD-43 (2019–present) and former candidate for this seat[84]
- Organizations
Declined to endorse
- State legislators
- Jim Carlin, former SD-03 (2017–2023) and former candidate for this seat (Republican)[86]
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of May 13, 2026 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Ashley Hinson (R) | $8,158,017 | $4,096,079 | $5,990,014 |
| Josh Turek (D) | $3,463,099 | $2,736,689 | $726,410 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[87] | |||
Polling
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Ashley Hinson (R) |
Josh Turek (D) |
Other/Undecided [k] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race to the WH[88] | February 20 – July 2, 2026 | July 3, 2026 | 47.0% | 46.1% | 6.9% | Hinson +0.9% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ashley Hinson (R) |
Josh Turek (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beacon Research (D)/Shaw & Co. Research (R)[89][E] | June 23–27, 2026 | 1,003 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 50% | – | 4% |
| New York Times/Siena University[90] | June 15–27, 2026 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 48% | 46% | – | 5% |
| Cygnal (R)[91][F] | June 16–19, 2026 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 44% | – | 10% |
| Global Strategy Group (D)[92][B] | June 8–11, 2026 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 47% | – | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[93][G] | June 3–4, 2026 | 557 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 46% | 46% | – | 7% |
| Primary elections are held | |||||||
| Echelon Insights (R)[94][H] | April 3–9, 2026 | 377 (LV) | ± 6.6% | 45% | 46% | – | 9% |
| GQR (D)[95][B] | March 10–16, 2026 | 1,200 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 47% | 43% | – | 11% |
| Change Research (D)[96][97] | January 8–11, 2026 | 1,108 (LV) | – | 44% | 41% | 1%[l] | 14% |
Hypothetical polling
Ashley Hinson vs. Nathan Sage
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ashley Hinson (R) |
Nathan Sage (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research (D)[96][97] | January 8–11, 2026 | 1,108 (LV) | – | 44% | 41% | 1%[l] | 14% |
Ashley Hinson vs. Zach Wahls
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ashley Hinson (R) |
Zach Wahls (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Echelon Insights (R)[94][H] | April 3–9, 2026 | 377 (LV) | ± 6.6% | 44% | 46% | – | 10% |
| GQR (D)[95][B] | March 10–16, 2026 | 1,200 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 47% | 44% | – | 9% |
| Change Research (D)[96][97] | January 8–11, 2026 | 1,108 (LV) | – | 44% | 41% | 2%[m] | 13% |
Joni Ernst vs. Jackie Norris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joni Ernst (R) |
Jackie Norris (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[98][D] | August 18–19, 2025 | 572 (V) | ± 4.1% | 45% | 42% | 13% |
Joni Ernst vs. Nathan Sage
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joni Ernst (R) |
Nathan Sage (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[98][D] | August 18–19, 2025 | 572 (V) | ± 4.1% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
Joni Ernst vs. Josh Turek
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joni Ernst (R) |
Josh Turek (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[98][D] | August 18–19, 2025 | 572 (V) | ± 4.1% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
Joni Ernst vs. Zach Wahls
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joni Ernst (R) |
Zach Wahls (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[98][D] | August 18–19, 2025 | 572 (V) | ± 4.1% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
Joni Ernst vs. Generic Democrat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joni Ernst (R) |
Generic Democrat |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[99][100][I] | June 2–3, 2025 | 568 (V) | ± 4.1% | 45% | 43% | 12% |
Notes
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Jerome Amos Jr., HD-62 (2023–present)[51]
- Austin Baeth, HD-36 (2023–present)[51]
- Sean Bagniewski, HD-35 (2023–present)[51]
- Timi Brown-Powers, HD-61 (2015–present)[51]
- Ruth Ann Gaines, HD-33 (2011–present)[51]
- Monica Kurth, HD-98 (2023–present)[51]
- Mary Madison, HD-31 (2023–present)[51]
- Larry McBurney, HD-44 (2025–present)[51]
- Amy Nielsen, HD-85 (2017–present)[51]
- Elizabeth Wilson, HD-73 (2023–present)[51]
- Adam Zabner, HD-90 (2023–present)[51]
- Sue Cahill, former HD-52 (2021–2025)[51]
- John Forbes, former HD-44 (2013–2025)[51]
- Charles Isenhart, former HD-72 (2009–2025)[51]
- Charlie McConkey, former HD-15 (2015–2023)[51]
- Kirsten Running-Marquardt, Linn County supervisor (2023–present) and former HD-69 (2009–2023)[51]
- Sami Scheetz, Linn County supervisor (2025–present) and former HD-78 (2023–2025)[51]
- Mark Smith, former HD-71 (2001–2021) and former chair of the Iowa Democratic Party (2020–2021)[51]
- Sharon Steckman, former HD-59 (2009–2025)[51]
- Liz Bennett, SD-39 (2023–present)[58]
- Matt Blake, SD-22 (2025–present)[58]
- Izaah Knox, SD-17 (2023–present)[58]
- Ken Croken, HD-97 (2023–present)[58]
- Daniel Gosa, HD-81 (2025–present)[58]
- David Jacoby, HD-86 (2003–present)[51]
- Elesha Gayman, former HD-84 (2007–2001)[48]
- Jerry Kearns, former HD-92 (2009–2019)[48]
- Richard Myers, former HD-30 (1994–2003)[58]
- "Someone else" with 5%
- The Economist's prediction model uses unconventional terminology. For the purpose of equivalency, their "Very Likely" ratings are formatted as a "Likely" rating while "Likely" ratings are formatted as a "Lean" rating.
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- "Would not vote" with 1%
- "Would not vote" with 2%
Partisan clients
- Poll sponsored by Turek's campaign
- Poll sponsored by Wahls's campaign
- Poll sponsored by Iowans for Tax Relief
- Poll sponsored by Senate Majority PAC, which supports Democratic candidates